The Temporal and Topological Characteristics of BGP Path Changes. Chang, D., Govindan, R., & Heidemann, J. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Network Protocols, pages 190–199, Atlanta, Georga, USA, November, 2003. IEEE.
The Temporal and Topological Characteristics of BGP Path Changes [link]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
BGP has been deployed in Internet for more than a decade. However, the events that cause BGP topological changes are not well understood. Although large traces of routing updates seen in BGP operation are collected by RIPE RIS and University of Oregon RouteViews, previous work examines this data set as individual routing updates. This paper describes methods that group routing updates into events. Since one event (a policy change or peering failure) results in many update messages, we cluster updates both temporally and topologically (based on the path vector information). We propose a new approach to analyzing the update traces, classifying the topological impact of routing events, and approximating the distance to the the Autonomous System originating the event. Our analysis provides some insight into routing behavior: First, at least 45% path changes are caused by events on transit peerings. Second, a significant number (23­37%) of path changes are transient, in that routing updates indicate temporary path changes, but they ultimately converge on a path that is identical from the previously stable path. These observations suggest that a content provider cannot guarantee end-to-end routing stability based solely on its relationship with its immediate ISP, and that better detection of transient changes may improve routing stability.
@InProceedings{Chang03a,
	author = "Di-Fa Chang and Ramesh Govindan and John Heidemann",
	title = 	"The Temporal and Topological Characteristics of BGP Path Changes",
	booktitle = 	"Proceedings of the " # " International Conference on Network Protocols",
	year = 		2003,
	sortdate = 		"2003-11-01", 
	project = "ant, saman, conser",
	jsubject = "routing",
	publisher =	"IEEE",
	address =	"Atlanta, Georga, USA",
	month =		nov,
	pages =		"190--199",
	jlocation =	"johnh: folder: xxx",
	jlocation =	"johnh: pafile",
	keywords =	"BGP",
	url =		"https://ant.isi.edu/%7ejohnh/PAPERS/Chang03a.html",
	psurl =		"https://ant.isi.edu/%7ejohnh/PAPERS/Chang03a.ps.gz",
	pdfurl =	"https://ant.isi.edu/%7ejohnh/PAPERS/Chang03a.pdf",
	myorganization =	"USC/Information Sciences Institute",
	copyrightholder = "ACM",
	copyrightterms = "	Personal use of this material is permitted.  However, 	permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising 	or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works         for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, 	or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works 	must be obtained from the IEEE. ",
	abstract = "
BGP has been deployed in Internet for more than a decade. However,
the events that cause BGP topological changes are not well
understood. Although large traces of routing updates seen in BGP
operation are collected by RIPE RIS and University of Oregon
RouteViews, previous work examines this data set as individual routing
updates.  This paper describes methods that group routing updates into
events. Since one event (a policy change or peering failure) results
in many update messages, we cluster updates both temporally and
topologically (based on the path vector information). We propose a new
approach to analyzing the update traces, classifying the topological
impact of routing events, and approximating the distance to the the
Autonomous System originating the event. Our analysis provides some
insight into routing behavior: First, at least 45\% path changes are
caused by events on transit peerings. Second, a significant number
(23­37\%) of path changes are transient, in that routing updates
indicate temporary path changes, but they ultimately converge on a
path that is identical from the previously stable path. These
observations suggest that a content provider cannot guarantee
end-to-end routing stability based solely on its relationship with its
immediate ISP, and that better detection of transient changes may
improve routing stability.
",
}

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