The FireWork v2.0 air quality forecast system with biomass burning emissions from the Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System v2.03. Chen, J., Anderson, K., Pavlovic, R., Moran, M. D., Englefield, P., Thompson, D. K., Munoz-Alpizar, R., & Landry, H. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(7):3283–3310, July, 2019. ![The FireWork v2.0 air quality forecast system with biomass burning emissions from the Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System v2.03 [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Abstract. Biomass burning activities can produce large quantities of smoke and result in adverse air quality conditions in regional environments. In Canada, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) operational FireWork (v1.0) air quality forecast system incorporates near-real-time biomass burning emissions to forecast smoke plumes from fire events. The system is based on the ECCC operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) augmented with near-real-time wildfire emissions using inputs from the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). Recent improvements to the representation of fire behaviour and fire emissions have been incorporated into the CFS Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (CFFEPS) v2.03. This is a bottom-up system linked to CWFIS in which hourly changes in biomass fuel consumption are parameterized with hourly forecasted meteorology at fire locations. CFFEPS has now also been connected to FireWork. In addition, a plume-rise parameterization based on fire-energy thermodynamics is used to define the smoke injection height and the distribution of emissions within a model vertical column. The new system, FireWork v2.0 (FireWork–CFFEPS), has been evaluated over North America for July–September 2017 and June–August 2018, which are both periods when western Canada experienced historical levels of fire activity with poor air quality conditions in several cities as well as other fires affecting northern Canada and Ontario. Forecast results were evaluated against hourly surface measurements for the three pollutant species used to calculate the Canadian Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), namely PM2.5, O3, and NO2, and benchmarked against the operational FireWork v1.0 system (FireWork-Ops). This comparison shows improved forecast performance and predictive skills for the FireWork–CFFEPS system. Modelled fire-plume injection heights from CFFEPS based on fire-energy thermodynamics show higher plume injection heights and larger variability. The changes in predicted fire emissions and injection height reduced the consistent over-predictions of PM2.5 and O3 seen in FireWork-Ops. On the other hand, there were minimal fire emission contributions to surface NO2, and results from FireWork–CFFEPS do not degrade NO2 forecast skill compared to the RAQDPS. Model performance statistics are slightly better for Canada than for the US, with lower errors and biases. The new system is still unable to capture the hourly variability of the observed values for PM2.5, but it captured the observed hourly variability for O3 concentration adequately. FireWork–CFFEPS also improves upon FireWork-Ops categorical scores for forecasting the occurrence of elevated air pollutant concentrations in terms of false alarm ratio (FAR) and critical success index (CSI).
@article{chen_firework_2019,
title = {The {FireWork} v2.0 air quality forecast system with biomass burning emissions from the {Canadian} {Forest} {Fire} {Emissions} {Prediction} {System} v2.03},
volume = {12},
issn = {1991-9603},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3283/2019/},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-3283-2019},
abstract = {Abstract. Biomass burning activities can produce large quantities
of smoke and result in adverse air quality conditions in regional
environments. In Canada, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)
operational FireWork (v1.0) air quality forecast system incorporates
near-real-time biomass burning emissions to forecast smoke plumes from fire
events. The system is based on the ECCC operational Regional Air Quality
Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) augmented with near-real-time
wildfire emissions using inputs from the Canadian Forest Service (CFS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). Recent improvements to
the representation of fire behaviour and fire emissions have been
incorporated into the CFS Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System
(CFFEPS) v2.03. This is a bottom-up system linked to CWFIS in which hourly
changes in biomass fuel consumption are parameterized with hourly forecasted
meteorology at fire locations. CFFEPS has now also been connected to
FireWork. In addition, a plume-rise parameterization based on fire-energy
thermodynamics is used to define the smoke injection height and the
distribution of emissions within a model vertical column. The new system,
FireWork v2.0 (FireWork–CFFEPS), has been evaluated over North America for
July–September 2017 and June–August 2018, which are both periods when western Canada
experienced historical levels of fire activity with poor air quality
conditions in several cities as well as other fires affecting northern
Canada and Ontario. Forecast results were evaluated against hourly surface
measurements for the three pollutant species used to calculate the Canadian
Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), namely PM2.5, O3, and NO2,
and benchmarked against the operational FireWork v1.0 system (FireWork-Ops).
This comparison shows improved forecast performance and predictive skills
for the FireWork–CFFEPS system. Modelled fire-plume injection heights from
CFFEPS based on fire-energy thermodynamics show higher plume injection
heights and larger variability. The changes in predicted fire emissions and
injection height reduced the consistent over-predictions of PM2.5 and
O3 seen in FireWork-Ops. On the other hand, there were minimal fire
emission contributions to surface NO2, and results from FireWork–CFFEPS
do not degrade NO2 forecast skill compared to the RAQDPS. Model
performance statistics are slightly better for Canada than for the US,
with lower errors and biases. The new system is still unable to capture the
hourly variability of the observed values for PM2.5, but it captured
the observed hourly variability for O3 concentration adequately.
FireWork–CFFEPS also improves upon FireWork-Ops categorical scores for
forecasting the occurrence of elevated air pollutant concentrations in terms
of false alarm ratio (FAR) and critical success index (CSI).},
language = {en},
number = {7},
urldate = {2023-06-15},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
author = {Chen, Jack and Anderson, Kerry and Pavlovic, Radenko and Moran, Michael D. and Englefield, Peter and Thompson, Dan K. and Munoz-Alpizar, Rodrigo and Landry, Hugo},
month = jul,
year = {2019},
keywords = {NALCMS},
pages = {3283--3310},
}
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In Canada, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) operational FireWork (v1.0) air quality forecast system incorporates near-real-time biomass burning emissions to forecast smoke plumes from fire events. The system is based on the ECCC operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) augmented with near-real-time wildfire emissions using inputs from the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). Recent improvements to the representation of fire behaviour and fire emissions have been incorporated into the CFS Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (CFFEPS) v2.03. This is a bottom-up system linked to CWFIS in which hourly changes in biomass fuel consumption are parameterized with hourly forecasted meteorology at fire locations. CFFEPS has now also been connected to FireWork. In addition, a plume-rise parameterization based on fire-energy thermodynamics is used to define the smoke injection height and the distribution of emissions within a model vertical column. The new system, FireWork v2.0 (FireWork–CFFEPS), has been evaluated over North America for July–September 2017 and June–August 2018, which are both periods when western Canada experienced historical levels of fire activity with poor air quality conditions in several cities as well as other fires affecting northern Canada and Ontario. Forecast results were evaluated against hourly surface measurements for the three pollutant species used to calculate the Canadian Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), namely PM2.5, O3, and NO2, and benchmarked against the operational FireWork v1.0 system (FireWork-Ops). This comparison shows improved forecast performance and predictive skills for the FireWork–CFFEPS system. Modelled fire-plume injection heights from CFFEPS based on fire-energy thermodynamics show higher plume injection heights and larger variability. The changes in predicted fire emissions and injection height reduced the consistent over-predictions of PM2.5 and O3 seen in FireWork-Ops. On the other hand, there were minimal fire emission contributions to surface NO2, and results from FireWork–CFFEPS do not degrade NO2 forecast skill compared to the RAQDPS. Model performance statistics are slightly better for Canada than for the US, with lower errors and biases. The new system is still unable to capture the hourly variability of the observed values for PM2.5, but it captured the observed hourly variability for O3 concentration adequately. FireWork–CFFEPS also improves upon FireWork-Ops categorical scores for forecasting the occurrence of elevated air pollutant concentrations in terms of false alarm ratio (FAR) and critical success index (CSI).","language":"en","number":"7","urldate":"2023-06-15","journal":"Geoscientific Model Development","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Chen"],"firstnames":["Jack"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Anderson"],"firstnames":["Kerry"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Pavlovic"],"firstnames":["Radenko"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Moran"],"firstnames":["Michael","D."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Englefield"],"firstnames":["Peter"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Thompson"],"firstnames":["Dan","K."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Munoz-Alpizar"],"firstnames":["Rodrigo"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Landry"],"firstnames":["Hugo"],"suffixes":[]}],"month":"July","year":"2019","keywords":"NALCMS","pages":"3283–3310","bibtex":"@article{chen_firework_2019,\n\ttitle = {The {FireWork} v2.0 air quality forecast system with biomass burning emissions from the {Canadian} {Forest} {Fire} {Emissions} {Prediction} {System} v2.03},\n\tvolume = {12},\n\tissn = {1991-9603},\n\turl = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3283/2019/},\n\tdoi = {10.5194/gmd-12-3283-2019},\n\tabstract = {Abstract. Biomass burning activities can produce large quantities\nof smoke and result in adverse air quality conditions in regional\nenvironments. In Canada, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)\noperational FireWork (v1.0) air quality forecast system incorporates\nnear-real-time biomass burning emissions to forecast smoke plumes from fire\nevents. The system is based on the ECCC operational Regional Air Quality\nDeterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) augmented with near-real-time\nwildfire emissions using inputs from the Canadian Forest Service (CFS)\nCanadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). Recent improvements to\nthe representation of fire behaviour and fire emissions have been\nincorporated into the CFS Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System\n(CFFEPS) v2.03. This is a bottom-up system linked to CWFIS in which hourly\nchanges in biomass fuel consumption are parameterized with hourly forecasted\nmeteorology at fire locations. CFFEPS has now also been connected to\nFireWork. In addition, a plume-rise parameterization based on fire-energy\nthermodynamics is used to define the smoke injection height and the\ndistribution of emissions within a model vertical column. The new system,\nFireWork v2.0 (FireWork–CFFEPS), has been evaluated over North America for\nJuly–September 2017 and June–August 2018, which are both periods when western Canada\nexperienced historical levels of fire activity with poor air quality\nconditions in several cities as well as other fires affecting northern\nCanada and Ontario. Forecast results were evaluated against hourly surface\nmeasurements for the three pollutant species used to calculate the Canadian\nAir Quality Health Index (AQHI), namely PM2.5, O3, and NO2,\nand benchmarked against the operational FireWork v1.0 system (FireWork-Ops).\nThis comparison shows improved forecast performance and predictive skills\nfor the FireWork–CFFEPS system. Modelled fire-plume injection heights from\nCFFEPS based on fire-energy thermodynamics show higher plume injection\nheights and larger variability. The changes in predicted fire emissions and\ninjection height reduced the consistent over-predictions of PM2.5 and\nO3 seen in FireWork-Ops. On the other hand, there were minimal fire\nemission contributions to surface NO2, and results from FireWork–CFFEPS\ndo not degrade NO2 forecast skill compared to the RAQDPS. Model\nperformance statistics are slightly better for Canada than for the US,\nwith lower errors and biases. 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