@article{devlin_trends_2014,
	series = {Special {Issue}: {Climate} {Change} and {Conflict}},
	title = {Trends and triggers redux: {Climate} change, rainfall, and interstate conflict},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0962-6298},
	shorttitle = {Trends and triggers redux},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629814000572},
	doi = {10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.07.001},
	abstract = {Given freshwater is crucial to sustaining life and forecasted to decline in relative abundance under most climate change scenarios, there is concern changing precipitation patterns will be a cause of future interstate conflict. In theorizing the impact of climate change for interstate conflict, we distinguish between trends (long-term means) that may affect the baseline probability of conflict, and triggers (short-term deviations) that may affect the probability of conflict in the short run. We jointly model the effects of mean precipitation scarcity and variability (trends) and year-to-year changes in precipitation (triggers) on militarized interstate disputes between states. We find higher long-run variability in precipitation and lower mean levels of precipitation in dyads are associated with the outbreak of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Contra neo-Malthusian expectations, however, we find joint precipitation scarcity – defined as both countries experiencing below mean rainfall in the same year – has a conflict-dampening effect. These findings push the literature in a direction that more closely aligns our modeling of human impacts with our understanding of the physical impacts of climate change.},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {Devlin, Colleen and Hendrix, Cullen S.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {Bargaining, Climate change, Conflict, Precipitation, River basins, War, Water},
	pages = {27--39},
}

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