Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States. Feng, S., Oppenheimer, M., & Schlenker, W. January, 2012. ![Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper abstract bibtex We investigate the link between agricultural productivity and net migration in the United States using a county-level panel for the most recent period of 1970-2009. In rural counties of the Corn Belt, we find a statistically significant relationship between changes in net outmigration and climate-driven changes in crop yields, with an estimated semi-elasticity of about -0.17, i.e., a 1% decrease in yields leads to a 0.17% net reduction of the population through migration. This effect is primarily driven by young adults. We do not detect a response for senior citizens, nor for the general population in eastern counties outside the Corn Belt. Applying this semi-elasticity to predicted yield changes under the B2 scenario of the Hadley III model, we project that, holding other factors constant, climate change would on average induce 3.7% of the adult population (ages 15-59) to leave rural counties of the Corn Belt in the medium term (2020-2049) compared to the 1960-1989 baseline, with the possibility of a much larger migration response in the long term (2077-2099). Since there is uncertainty about future warming, we also present projections for a range of uniform climate change scenarios in temperature or precipitation.
@misc{feng_climate_2012,
title = {Climate {Change}, {Crop} {Yields}, and {Internal} {Migration} in the {United} {States}},
shorttitle = {{NBER} {Working} {Paper} 17734},
url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17734},
abstract = {We investigate the link between agricultural productivity and net migration in the United States using a county-level panel for the most recent period of 1970-2009. In rural counties of the Corn Belt, we find a statistically significant relationship between changes in net outmigration and climate-driven changes in crop yields, with an estimated semi-elasticity of about -0.17, i.e., a 1\% decrease in yields leads to a 0.17\% net reduction of the population through migration. This effect is primarily driven by young adults. We do not detect a response for senior citizens, nor for the general population in eastern counties outside the Corn Belt. Applying this semi-elasticity to predicted yield changes under the B2 scenario of the Hadley III model, we project that, holding other factors constant, climate change would on average induce 3.7\% of the adult population (ages 15-59) to leave rural counties of the Corn Belt in the medium term (2020-2049) compared to the 1960-1989 baseline, with the possibility of a much larger migration response in the long term (2077-2099). Since there is uncertainty about future warming, we also present projections for a range of uniform climate change scenarios in temperature or precipitation.},
urldate = {2017-07-11},
publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
author = {Feng, Shuaizhang and Oppenheimer, Michael and Schlenker, Wolfram},
month = jan,
year = {2012},
keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}
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