Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, The. Guiteras, R. 2009.
Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, The [pdf]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
This paper estimates the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. I use a 40-year district-level panel data set covering over 200 Indian districts to estimate the e§ect of random year-to-year variation in weather on agricultural output. These panel estimates incorporate farmers within-year adaptations to annual weather shocks.These estimates, derived from short-run weather effects, are relevant for predicting the medium-run economic impact of climate change if farmers are unable to adapt quickly. I find that projected climate change over the period 2010-2039 reduces major crop yields by 4.5 to 9 percent. The long-run (2070-2099) impact is dramatic, reducing yields by 25 percent or more in the absence of long-run adaptation. These results suggest that climate change is likely to impose significant costs on the Indian economy unless farmers can quickly recognize and adapt to increasing temperatures. Such rapid adaptation may be less plausible in a developing country, where access to information and capital is limited.

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