Global warming uncertainties and the value of information: an analysis using CETA. Peck, S. C. & Teisberg, T. J. Resource and Energy Economics, 15(1):71–97, March, 1993. ![Global warming uncertainties and the value of information: an analysis using CETA [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of optimal carbon control strategies to parameters of the Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment (CETA) Model, and we use CETA in a simple decision tree framework to estimate the value of information about global warming uncertainties. We find that if an optimal control policy is used under uncertainty, the eventual resolution of uncertainty has high value relative to current research budgets, and resolving uncertainty about the costs of warming is nearly as important as resolving uncertainty about the extent of warming. In addition, we find that there is not a high premium on immediate resolution of uncertainty, if resolution would otherwise occur within, say, twenty years; this implies that time is available to plan and execute a carefully designed research program. On the other hand, we find that if the real world political process would result in a suboptimal control policy being chosen under uncertainty, and this choice could be prevented by early resolution of uncertainty, the benefit of early resolution may be as much as three orders of magnitude greater.
@article{peck_global_1993,
title = {Global warming uncertainties and the value of information: an analysis using {CETA}},
volume = {15},
issn = {09287655},
shorttitle = {Global warming uncertainties and the value of information},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/092876559390019Q},
doi = {10.1016/0928-7655(93)90019-Q},
abstract = {In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of optimal carbon control strategies to parameters of the Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment (CETA) Model, and we use CETA in a simple decision tree framework to estimate the value of information about global warming uncertainties. We find that if an optimal control policy is used under uncertainty, the eventual resolution of uncertainty has high value relative to current research budgets, and resolving uncertainty about the costs of warming is nearly as important as resolving uncertainty about the extent of warming. In addition, we find that there is not a high premium on immediate resolution of uncertainty, if resolution would otherwise occur within, say, twenty years; this implies that time is available to plan and execute a carefully designed research program. On the other hand, we find that if the real world political process would result in a suboptimal control policy being chosen under uncertainty, and this choice could be prevented by early resolution of uncertainty, the benefit of early resolution may be as much as three orders of magnitude greater.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2017-06-07},
journal = {Resource and Energy Economics},
author = {Peck, Stephen C. and Teisberg, Thomas J.},
month = mar,
year = {1993},
keywords = {DR, Untagged},
pages = {71--97},
}
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