Interaction of elevation and climate change on fire weather risk. Spittlehouse, D. L. & Dymond, C. C. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 52(2):237–249, February, 2022. Paper doi abstract bibtex Most wildfire studies are regional to global in scale; however, many of the values of interest and the weather are local phenomena that may give rise to large spatial variability in risk. We assessed the interaction of elevation and climate on fire weather for the Penticton Creek watershed in southwestern Canada for historic weather, and five climate change scenarios. Daily temperature and precipitation records spanning 100 years were generated using the LARS-WG5 weather generator and were used to calculate the fire weather indices of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Fire season length, restricted activity season, and fire season severity are all projected to increase by the 2050s and in some scenarios to increase further by the 2080s. Low and mid-elevations had substantially worsening risks, whereas at the highest elevations, risks were mitigated by the continuation of the snowpack. Increasing temperatures lengthened the fire season while decreasing (increasing) precipitation exacerbated (ameliorated) the intensity of the fire risk. These results indicate more variable climate change effects than in the literature. Over 24 million km 2 globally of forestland have a similar or higher degree of slope, highlighting the need for detailed topographic integration in fire studies to meet the needs of local planners.
@article{spittlehouse_interaction_2022,
title = {Interaction of elevation and climate change on fire weather risk},
volume = {52},
issn = {0045-5067, 1208-6037},
url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/cjfr-2021-0137},
doi = {10.1139/cjfr-2021-0137},
abstract = {Most wildfire studies are regional to global in scale; however, many of the values of interest and the weather are local phenomena that may give rise to large spatial variability in risk. We assessed the interaction of elevation and climate on fire weather for the Penticton Creek watershed in southwestern Canada for historic weather, and five climate change scenarios. Daily temperature and precipitation records spanning 100 years were generated using the LARS-WG5 weather generator and were used to calculate the fire weather indices of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Fire season length, restricted activity season, and fire season severity are all projected to increase by the 2050s and in some scenarios to increase further by the 2080s. Low and mid-elevations had substantially worsening risks, whereas at the highest elevations, risks were mitigated by the continuation of the snowpack. Increasing temperatures lengthened the fire season while decreasing (increasing) precipitation exacerbated (ameliorated) the intensity of the fire risk. These results indicate more variable climate change effects than in the literature. Over 24 million km
2
globally of forestland have a similar or higher degree of slope, highlighting the need for detailed topographic integration in fire studies to meet the needs of local planners.},
language = {en},
number = {2},
urldate = {2023-06-15},
journal = {Canadian Journal of Forest Research},
author = {Spittlehouse, David L. and Dymond, Caren C.},
month = feb,
year = {2022},
keywords = {Political Boundaries},
pages = {237--249},
}
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