@article{levy_sampling_2018,
	title = {Sampling bias does not exaggerate climate–conflict claims},
	volume = {8},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.7916/D8NK4XGR},
	doi = {10.7916/D8NK4XGR},
	abstract = {This correspondence is a response to Courtland Adams, Tobias Ide, Jon Barnett \& Adrien Detges (2018), "Sampling bias in climate–conflict research" Nature Climate Change 8 (200–203) doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0068-2. Adams et al argue that claims regarding climate-conflict links are overstated because of sampling bias. However, this conclusion rests on logical fallacies and conceptual misunderstanding. There is some sampling bias, but it does not have the claimed effect.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2018-10-09},
	author = {Levy, Marc A.},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {442--442},
}

This correspondence is a response to Courtland Adams, Tobias Ide, Jon Barnett & Adrien Detges (2018), "Sampling bias in climate–conflict research" Nature Climate Change 8 (200–203) doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0068-2. Adams et al argue that claims regarding climate-conflict links are overstated because of sampling bias. However, this conclusion rests on logical fallacies and conceptual misunderstanding. There is some sampling bias, but it does not have the claimed effect.

@article{adams_sampling_2018,
	title = {Sampling bias in climate–conflict research},
	volume = {8},
	copyright = {2018 The Author(s)},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0068-2},
	doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0068-2},
	abstract = {A systematic review shows that climate–conflict research tends to focus on a few accessible regions characterized by violent conflict rather than those most vulnerable to climate change, which may inflate the perceived prevalence of links between climate change and violent conflict.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2018-10-09},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Adams, Courtland and Ide, Tobias and Barnett, Jon and Detges, Adrien},
	month = mar,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {200--203},
}

A systematic review shows that climate–conflict research tends to focus on a few accessible regions characterized by violent conflict rather than those most vulnerable to climate change, which may inflate the perceived prevalence of links between climate change and violent conflict.

@article{eastin_hell_2018,
	title = {Hell and high water: {Precipitation} shocks and conflict violence in the {Philippines}},
	shorttitle = {Hell and high water},
	author = {Eastin, Joshua},
	year = {2018},
}

@article{blakeslee_weather_2018,
	title = {Weather {Shocks}, {Agriculture}, and {Crime} {Evidence} from {India}},
	volume = {53},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of Human Resources},
	author = {Blakeslee, David S. and Fishman, Ram},
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {750--782},
}

@article{adams_sampling_2018,
	title = {Sampling bias in climate–conflict research},
	volume = {8},
	copyright = {2018 The Author(s)},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0068-2},
	doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0068-2},
	abstract = {A systematic review shows that climate–conflict research tends to focus on a few accessible regions characterized by violent conflict rather than those most vulnerable to climate change, which may inflate the perceived prevalence of links between climate change and violent conflict.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2018-04-16},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Adams, Courtland and Ide, Tobias and Barnett, Jon and Detges, Adrien},
	month = mar,
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {200--203},
}

A systematic review shows that climate–conflict research tends to focus on a few accessible regions characterized by violent conflict rather than those most vulnerable to climate change, which may inflate the perceived prevalence of links between climate change and violent conflict.

@misc{noauthor_framework_2018,
	title = {Framework {Proposal} for a {US} {Upstream} {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Tax} with {WTO}-{Compliant} {Border} {Adjustments}},
	url = {http://www.rff.org/research/publications/framework-proposal-us-upstream-greenhouse-gas-tax-wto-compliant-border},
	abstract = {Ambitious US climate policy will require border adjustments to protect energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries from unfair competition—but formulating policies compatible with obligations under the World Trade Organization has proved challenging.},
	urldate = {2018-04-11},
	month = mar,
	year = {2018},
}

Ambitious US climate policy will require border adjustments to protect energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries from unfair competition—but formulating policies compatible with obligations under the World Trade Organization has proved challenging.

@misc{royal_how_2018,
	title = {How {Do} {Homeowners} {Value} {Flood} {Insurance}? {Examining} a {Troubling} {Contradiction}},
	url = {http://www.rff.org/research/publications/how-do-homeowners-value-flood-insurance-examining-troubling-contradiction},
	abstract = {Understanding how homeowners think about flood insurance can help lawmakers consider reforms to the National Flood Insurance Program aimed at protecting the most vulnerable populations.},
	urldate = {2018-04-10},
	journal = {Resources for the Future},
	author = {Royal, Andrew},
	month = apr,
	year = {2018},
}

Understanding how homeowners think about flood insurance can help lawmakers consider reforms to the National Flood Insurance Program aimed at protecting the most vulnerable populations.

@article{zhang_temperature_2018,
	title = {Temperature effects on productivity and factor reallocation: {Evidence} from a half million chinese manufacturing plants},
	volume = {88},
	issn = {0095-0696},
	shorttitle = {Temperature effects on productivity and factor reallocation},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069617304588},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2017.11.001},
	abstract = {This paper uses detailed production data from a half million Chinese manufacturing plants over 1998–2007 to estimate the effects of temperature on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP), factor inputs, and output. We detect an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and TFP and show that it primarily drives the temperature-output effect. Both labor- and capital- intensive firms exhibit sensitivity to high temperatures. By mid 21st century, if no additional adaptation were to occur, we project that climate change will reduce Chinese manufacturing output annually by 12\%, equivalent to a loss of \$39.5 billion in 2007 dollars. This implies substantial local and global economic consequences as the Chinese manufacturing sector produces 32\% of national GDP and supplies 12\% of global exports.},
	number = {Supplement C},
	urldate = {2017-12-04},
	journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
	author = {Zhang, Peng and Deschenes, Olivier and Meng, Kyle and Zhang, Junjie},
	month = mar,
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {1--17},
}

This paper uses detailed production data from a half million Chinese manufacturing plants over 1998–2007 to estimate the effects of temperature on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP), factor inputs, and output. We detect an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and TFP and show that it primarily drives the temperature-output effect. Both labor- and capital- intensive firms exhibit sensitivity to high temperatures. By mid 21st century, if no additional adaptation were to occur, we project that climate change will reduce Chinese manufacturing output annually by 12%, equivalent to a loss of $39.5 billion in 2007 dollars. This implies substantial local and global economic consequences as the Chinese manufacturing sector produces 32% of national GDP and supplies 12% of global exports.

@article{landis_fording_2017,
	title = {Fording differences? {Conditions} mitigating water insecurity in the {Niger} {River} {Basin}},
	volume = {56},
	shorttitle = {Fording differences?},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {Landis, Steven T. and Rezaeedaryakenari, Babak and Zhang, Yifan and Thies, Cameron G. and Maciejewski, Ross},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {77--90},
}

@article{anderson_jewish_2017,
	title = {Jewish {Persecutions} and {Weather} {Shocks}: 1100–1800},
	volume = {127},
	copyright = {© 2015 Royal Economic Society},
	issn = {1468-0297},
	shorttitle = {Jewish {Persecutions} and {Weather} {Shocks}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecoj.12331},
	doi = {10.1111/ecoj.12331},
	abstract = {What factors caused the persecution of minorities in pre-modern Europe? Using panel data consisting of 1,366 persecutions of Jews from 936 European cities between 1100 and 1800, we test whether persecutions were more likely following colder growing seasons. A one standard deviation decrease in growing season temperature in the previous five-year period increased the probability of a persecution by between 1 and 1.5 percentage points (relative to a baseline of 2\%). This effect was strongest in weak states and with poor quality soil. The long-run decline in persecutions was partly attributable to greater market integration and state capacity.},
	language = {en},
	number = {602},
	urldate = {2018-10-03},
	journal = {The Economic Journal},
	author = {Anderson, Robert Warren and Johnson, Noel D. and Koyama, Mark},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {924--958},
}

What factors caused the persecution of minorities in pre-modern Europe? Using panel data consisting of 1,366 persecutions of Jews from 936 European cities between 1100 and 1800, we test whether persecutions were more likely following colder growing seasons. A one standard deviation decrease in growing season temperature in the previous five-year period increased the probability of a persecution by between 1 and 1.5 percentage points (relative to a baseline of 2%). This effect was strongest in weak states and with poor quality soil. The long-run decline in persecutions was partly attributable to greater market integration and state capacity.

@article{cooke_using_2017,
	title = {Using the social cost of carbon to value earth observing systems},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1469-3062, 1752-7457},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2015.1110109},
	doi = {10.1080/14693062.2015.1110109},
	abstract = {The goal of this study is to show how to quantify the benefits of accelerated learning about key parameters of the climatic system and use this knowledge to improve decision-making on climate policy. The US social cost of carbon (SCC) methodology is used in innovative ways to value new Earth observing systems (EOSs). The study departs from the strict US SCC methodology, and from previous work, in that net benefits are used instead of only damages to calculate the value of information of the enhanced systems. In other respects the US SCC methodology is followed closely. We compute the surfeit expected net benefits of learning the actionable information earlier, with the enhanced system, versus learning later with existing systems. The enhanced systems are designed to give reliable information about climate sensitivity on accelerated timescales relative to existing systems; therefore, the decision context stipulates that a global reduced emissions path would be deployed upon receiving suitable information on the rate of temperature rise with a suitable level of confidence. By placing the enhanced observing system in a decision context, the SCC enables valuing this system as a real option.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-10-17},
	journal = {Climate Policy},
	author = {Cooke, Roger and Golub, Alexander and Wielicki, Bruce A. and Young, David F. and Mlynczak, Martin G. and Baize, Rosemary R.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: None, IAM: Yes, Method: Process-based, Other SCC, Sector: SCC Review or Discussion, Tags Edited, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {330--345},
}

The goal of this study is to show how to quantify the benefits of accelerated learning about key parameters of the climatic system and use this knowledge to improve decision-making on climate policy. The US social cost of carbon (SCC) methodology is used in innovative ways to value new Earth observing systems (EOSs). The study departs from the strict US SCC methodology, and from previous work, in that net benefits are used instead of only damages to calculate the value of information of the enhanced systems. In other respects the US SCC methodology is followed closely. We compute the surfeit expected net benefits of learning the actionable information earlier, with the enhanced system, versus learning later with existing systems. The enhanced systems are designed to give reliable information about climate sensitivity on accelerated timescales relative to existing systems; therefore, the decision context stipulates that a global reduced emissions path would be deployed upon receiving suitable information on the rate of temperature rise with a suitable level of confidence. By placing the enhanced observing system in a decision context, the SCC enables valuing this system as a real option.

@article{carleton_increasing_2017,
	title = {Increasing temperature exacerbated {Classic} {Maya} conflict over the long term},
	volume = {163},
	issn = {02773791},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379116304292},
	doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.022},
	abstract = {The impact of climate change on conflict is an important but controversial topic. One issue that needs to be resolved is whether or not climate change exacerbates conflict over the long term. With this in mind, we investigated the relationship between climate change and conflict among Classic Maya polities over a period of several hundred years (363–888 CE). We compiled a list of conflicts recorded on dated monuments, and then located published temperature and rainfall records for the region. Subsequently, we used a recently developed time-series method to investigate the impact of the climatic variables on the frequency of conflict while controlling for trends in monument number. We found that there was a substantial increase in conflict in the approximately 500 years covered by the dataset. This increase could not be explained by change in the amount of rainfall. In contrast, the increase was strongly associated with an increase in summer temperature. These finding have implications not only for Classic Maya history but also for the debate about the likely effects of contemporary climate change.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-10-16},
	journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
	author = {Carleton, W. Christopher and Campbell, David and Collard, Mark},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Central America, Method: Empirical, Sector: Conflict, Tags Edited},
	pages = {209--218},
}

The impact of climate change on conflict is an important but controversial topic. One issue that needs to be resolved is whether or not climate change exacerbates conflict over the long term. With this in mind, we investigated the relationship between climate change and conflict among Classic Maya polities over a period of several hundred years (363–888 CE). We compiled a list of conflicts recorded on dated monuments, and then located published temperature and rainfall records for the region. Subsequently, we used a recently developed time-series method to investigate the impact of the climatic variables on the frequency of conflict while controlling for trends in monument number. We found that there was a substantial increase in conflict in the approximately 500 years covered by the dataset. This increase could not be explained by change in the amount of rainfall. In contrast, the increase was strongly associated with an increase in summer temperature. These finding have implications not only for Classic Maya history but also for the debate about the likely effects of contemporary climate change.

@article{auffhammer_climate_2017,
	title = {Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the {United} {States}},
	volume = {114},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/114/8/1886},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1613193114},
	abstract = {National Academy of Sciences},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2017-10-31},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Auffhammer, Maximilian and Baylis, Patrick and Hausman, Catherine H.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2017},
	pmid = {28167756},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1886--1891},
}

National Academy of Sciences

@article{blanc_approaches_2017,
	title = {Approaches to {Assessing} {Climate} {Change} {Impacts} on {Agriculture}: {An} {Overview} of the {Debate}},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1750-6816},
	shorttitle = {Approaches to {Assessing} {Climate} {Change} {Impacts} on {Agriculture}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/11/2/247/4055847},
	doi = {10.1093/reep/rex011},
	abstract = {There are three main approaches to assessing the multiple impacts of climate change on agriculture. In this symposium, leading proponents of each approach discuss their methods, uses, and findings. This introductory article provides an overview of these approaches and discusses the main sources of debate in the literature on climate change impacts on agriculture: the weather versus climate dichotomy, the explanatory variables included in the analysis, the impact measures analyzed, impact projections, and adaptation.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-10-27},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	author = {Blanc, Elodie and Reilly, John},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {247--257},
}

There are three main approaches to assessing the multiple impacts of climate change on agriculture. In this symposium, leading proponents of each approach discuss their methods, uses, and findings. This introductory article provides an overview of these approaches and discusses the main sources of debate in the literature on climate change impacts on agriculture: the weather versus climate dichotomy, the explanatory variables included in the analysis, the impact measures analyzed, impact projections, and adaptation.

@article{chen_impact_2017,
	title = {Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in {Jiangsu} {Province}, {China}},
	volume = {224},
	issn = {0269-7491},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749116319303},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2017.02.011},
	abstract = {A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016–2040 and 2041–2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016–2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.},
	number = {Supplement C},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Environmental Pollution},
	author = {Chen, Kai and Horton, Radley M. and Bader, Daniel A. and Lesk, Corey and Jiang, Leiwen and Jones, Bryan and Zhou, Lian and Chen, Xiaodong and Bi, Jun and Kinney, Patrick L.},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {317--325},
}

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016–2040 and 2041–2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016–2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

@article{gasparrini_projections_2017,
	title = {Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios},
	issn = {2542-5196},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519617301560},
	doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0},
	abstract = {Summary
Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990–2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2\% (empirical 95\% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1\% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0\% (−3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7\% (−4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. UK Medical Research Council.},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},
	author = {Gasparrini, Antonio and Guo, Yuming and Sera, Francesco and Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria and Huber, Veronika and Tong, Shilu and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline and Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario and Lavigne, Eric and Matus Correa, Patricia and Valdes Ortega, Nicolas and Kan, Haidong and Osorio, Samuel and Kyselý, Jan and Urban, Aleš and Jaakkola, Jouni J K and Ryti, Niilo R I and Pascal, Mathilde and Goodman, Patrick G and Zeka, Ariana and Michelozzi, Paola and Scortichini, Matteo and Hashizume, Masahiro and Honda, Yasushi and Hurtado-Diaz, Magali and Cesar Cruz, Julio and Seposo, Xerxes and Kim, Ho and Tobias, Aurelio and Iñiguez, Carmen and Forsberg, Bertil and Åström, Daniel Oudin and Ragettli, Martina S and Guo, Yue Leon and Wu, Chang-fu and Zanobetti, Antonella and Schwartz, Joel and Bell, Michelle L and Dang, Tran Ngoc and Van, Dung Do and Heaviside, Clare and Vardoulakis, Sotiris and Hajat, Shakoor and Haines, Andy and Armstrong, Ben},
	month = nov,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
}

Summary Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990–2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2% (empirical 95% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (−3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (−4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. UK Medical Research Council.

@article{huber_cold-_2017,
	title = {Cold- and heat-related mortality: a cautionary note on current damage functions with net benefits from climate change},
	volume = {142},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Cold- and heat-related mortality},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-1956-6},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-1956-6},
	abstract = {Several economic assessments of climate change build on the assumption that reductions of cold-related mortality will overcompensate increases in heat-related mortality at least for moderate levels of global warming. Due to the lack of suitable epidemiological studies with sufficient spatial coverage, many of these assessments rely on one particular dataset: projections of temperature-related mortality in 17 countries published almost 20 years ago. Here, we reanalyse this dataset with a focus on cardiovascular mortality and present evidence for two flaws in the original analysis, which would imply a significant bias towards finding net mortality benefits from climate change: (i) the combination of mortality data for all ages with data specific to the elderly and (ii) the confounding of seasonal effects with direct temperature effects on mortality. This bias appears to be further amplified in the integrated assessment models FUND and ENVISAGE, and related economic assessment tools relying on the same calibration scheme, because heat-related cardiovascular mortality is assumed to affect urban populations only in these models. In an exemplary calculation, we show that while FUND currently projects a net reduction of approximately 380,000 deaths from cardiovascular diseases globally per year at 1 °C of global warming, correcting for the two potential flaws and assuming equal vulnerability of urban and rural populations would result in a net increase of cardiovascular mortality, with approximately 150,000 net additional deaths globally per year. Our findings point to the urgent need of renewing damage functions on temperature-related mortality currently applied in some of the most widely used integrated assessment models.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Huber, Veronika and Ibarreta, Dolores and Frieler, Katja},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {407--418},
}

Several economic assessments of climate change build on the assumption that reductions of cold-related mortality will overcompensate increases in heat-related mortality at least for moderate levels of global warming. Due to the lack of suitable epidemiological studies with sufficient spatial coverage, many of these assessments rely on one particular dataset: projections of temperature-related mortality in 17 countries published almost 20 years ago. Here, we reanalyse this dataset with a focus on cardiovascular mortality and present evidence for two flaws in the original analysis, which would imply a significant bias towards finding net mortality benefits from climate change: (i) the combination of mortality data for all ages with data specific to the elderly and (ii) the confounding of seasonal effects with direct temperature effects on mortality. This bias appears to be further amplified in the integrated assessment models FUND and ENVISAGE, and related economic assessment tools relying on the same calibration scheme, because heat-related cardiovascular mortality is assumed to affect urban populations only in these models. In an exemplary calculation, we show that while FUND currently projects a net reduction of approximately 380,000 deaths from cardiovascular diseases globally per year at 1 °C of global warming, correcting for the two potential flaws and assuming equal vulnerability of urban and rural populations would result in a net increase of cardiovascular mortality, with approximately 150,000 net additional deaths globally per year. Our findings point to the urgent need of renewing damage functions on temperature-related mortality currently applied in some of the most widely used integrated assessment models.

@article{oneill_benefits_2017,
	title = {Benefits of {Reduced} {Anthropogenic} {Climate} {changE} ({BRACE}): a synthesis, {The}},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {The {Benefits} of {Reduced} {Anthropogenic} {Climate} {changE} ({BRACE})},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x},
	abstract = {Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-12-01},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {O’Neill, Brian C. and M. Done, James and Gettelman, Andrew and Lawrence, Peter and Lehner, Flavio and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Lin, Lei and J. Monaghan, Andrew and Oleson, Keith and Ren, Xiaolin and M. Sanderson, Benjamin and Tebaldi, Claudia and Weitzel, Matthias and Xu, Yangyang and Anderson, Brooke and Fix, Miranda J. and Levis, Samuel},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.

@article{obradovich_climate_2017,
	title = {Climate change may speed democratic turnover},
	volume = {140},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1833-8},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1833-8},
	abstract = {The electoral fate of incumbent politicians depends heavily upon voters’ well-being. Might climate change – by amplifying threats to human well-being – cause incumbent democratic politicians and parties to lose office more frequently? Here I conduct the first-ever investigation of the relationship between temperature, electoral returns, and future climate change. Using data from over 1.5 billion votes in over 4,800 electoral contests held in 19 countries between 1925 and 2011, coupled with meteorological data, I show that increases in annual temperatures above 21 °C (70 °F) markedly decrease officeholders’ vote share. I combine these empirical estimates with an ensemble of climate models to project the impact of climate change on the fate of future officeholders. Resulting forecasts indicate that by 2099 climate change may reduce average incumbent party vote share across all nations in the sample, with the most acute worsening occurring in poorer countries. If realized, these predictions indicate that climate change could amplify future rates of democratic turnover by causing incumbent parties and their politicians to lose office with increasing frequency.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-12-04},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Obradovich, Nick},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {135--147},
}

The electoral fate of incumbent politicians depends heavily upon voters’ well-being. Might climate change – by amplifying threats to human well-being – cause incumbent democratic politicians and parties to lose office more frequently? Here I conduct the first-ever investigation of the relationship between temperature, electoral returns, and future climate change. Using data from over 1.5 billion votes in over 4,800 electoral contests held in 19 countries between 1925 and 2011, coupled with meteorological data, I show that increases in annual temperatures above 21 °C (70 °F) markedly decrease officeholders’ vote share. I combine these empirical estimates with an ensemble of climate models to project the impact of climate change on the fate of future officeholders. Resulting forecasts indicate that by 2099 climate change may reduce average incumbent party vote share across all nations in the sample, with the most acute worsening occurring in poorer countries. If realized, these predictions indicate that climate change could amplify future rates of democratic turnover by causing incumbent parties and their politicians to lose office with increasing frequency.

@book{national_academies_of_sciences_valuing_2017,
	title = {Valuing {Climate} {Damages}: {Updating} {Estimation} of the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon} {Dioxide}},
	isbn = {978-0-309-45420-9},
	shorttitle = {Valuing {Climate} {Damages}},
	url = {https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24651/valuing-climate-damages-updating-estimation-of-the-social-cost-of},
	abstract = {The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems.
Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology.  This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.},
	author = {National Academies of Sciences, Engineering},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	doi = {10.17226/24651},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems. Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.

@article{moore_new_2017,
	title = {New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2041-1723},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01792-x},
	doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-12-03},
	journal = {Nature Communications},
	author = {Moore, Frances C. and Baldos, Uris and Hertel, Thomas and Diaz, Delavane},
	month = dec,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
}

@article{maniloff_local_2017,
	title = {Local {Employment} {Impacts} of {Fracking}: {A} {National} {Study}, {The}},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {09287655},
	shorttitle = {The local employment impacts of fracking},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0928765516300306},
	doi = {10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.04.005},
	abstract = {This paper quantifies the local economic impacts of hydraulic fracturing. We match extremely detailed oil and natural gas well data to county-level aggregate and sectoral employment data. Controlling for time-varying unobserved determinants of job growth, we find approximately 550,000 local jobs attributable to the shale boom. While this is substantial, it is smaller than previous studies. We also show that the effects are heterogenous across sectors. Impacts are concentrated in extractive industries, in local non-tradable and service sectors, and in areas with the largest increase in drilling activity.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Resource and Energy Economics},
	author = {Maniloff, Peter and Mastromonaco, Ralph},
	month = aug,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {62--85},
}

This paper quantifies the local economic impacts of hydraulic fracturing. We match extremely detailed oil and natural gas well data to county-level aggregate and sectoral employment data. Controlling for time-varying unobserved determinants of job growth, we find approximately 550,000 local jobs attributable to the shale boom. While this is substantial, it is smaller than previous studies. We also show that the effects are heterogenous across sectors. Impacts are concentrated in extractive industries, in local non-tradable and service sectors, and in areas with the largest increase in drilling activity.

@article{isen_relationship_2017,
	title = {Relationship between season of birth, temperature exposure, and later life wellbeing},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/11/28/1702436114},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1702436114},
	abstract = {We study how exposure to extreme temperatures in early periods of child development is related to adult economic outcomes measured 30 y later. Our analysis uses administrative earnings records for over 12 million individuals born in the United States between 1969 and 1977, linked to fine-scale, daily weather data and location and date of birth. We calculate the length of time each individual is exposed to different temperatures in utero and in early childhood, and we estimate flexible regression models that allow for nonlinearities in the relationship between temperature and long-run outcomes. We find that an extra day with mean temperatures above 32 °C in utero and in the first year after birth is associated with a 0.1\% reduction in adult annual earnings at age 30. Temperature sensitivity is evident in multiple periods of early development, ranging from the first trimester of gestation to age 6–12 mo. We observe that household air-conditioning adoption, which increased dramatically over the time period studied, mitigates nearly all of the estimated temperature sensitivity.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-12-12},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Isen, Adam and Rossin-Slater, Maya and Walker, Reed},
	month = dec,
	year = {2017},
	pmid = {29203654},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {201702436},
}

We study how exposure to extreme temperatures in early periods of child development is related to adult economic outcomes measured 30 y later. Our analysis uses administrative earnings records for over 12 million individuals born in the United States between 1969 and 1977, linked to fine-scale, daily weather data and location and date of birth. We calculate the length of time each individual is exposed to different temperatures in utero and in early childhood, and we estimate flexible regression models that allow for nonlinearities in the relationship between temperature and long-run outcomes. We find that an extra day with mean temperatures above 32 °C in utero and in the first year after birth is associated with a 0.1% reduction in adult annual earnings at age 30. Temperature sensitivity is evident in multiple periods of early development, ranging from the first trimester of gestation to age 6–12 mo. We observe that household air-conditioning adoption, which increased dramatically over the time period studied, mitigates nearly all of the estimated temperature sensitivity.

@article{ide_research_2017,
	title = {Research methods for exploring the links between climate change and conflict: {Research} methods for exploring the links between climate change and conflict},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {17577780},
	shorttitle = {Research methods for exploring the links between climate change and conflict},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.456},
	doi = {10.1002/wcc.456},
	abstract = {The potential links between climate change and conflict have received much attention in recent years, but there is little consensus on the issue in the relevant literature. So far, few methodological reflections exist in climate–conflict research. This is unfortunate given the tremendous innovations in methods the research field has experienced in recent years and the potential of diverse methods to shed light on different aspects of the subject matter, thereby increasing our understanding of potential climate–conflict links. In order to counteract this shortcoming, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the developments and innovations in methods in climate–conflict research. It first identifies and discusses the most common methods in the research field: large-N statistical analysis and qualitative case study. The study goes on to evaluate four new methods that have emerged particularly since 2012: integration of statistical techniques and qualitative case studies; field experiment; risk analysis based on geographical information systems (GIS); and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). The review provides an overview of these methods and their potentials and pitfalls when used to study climate–conflict links. It also discusses how future research can deal with a pluralism of methods in order to gain deeper insights into the relationship between climate change and conflict. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e456. doi: 10.1002/wcc.456},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-10-16},
	journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},
	author = {Ide, Tobias},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {e456},
}

The potential links between climate change and conflict have received much attention in recent years, but there is little consensus on the issue in the relevant literature. So far, few methodological reflections exist in climate–conflict research. This is unfortunate given the tremendous innovations in methods the research field has experienced in recent years and the potential of diverse methods to shed light on different aspects of the subject matter, thereby increasing our understanding of potential climate–conflict links. In order to counteract this shortcoming, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the developments and innovations in methods in climate–conflict research. It first identifies and discusses the most common methods in the research field: large-N statistical analysis and qualitative case study. The study goes on to evaluate four new methods that have emerged particularly since 2012: integration of statistical techniques and qualitative case studies; field experiment; risk analysis based on geographical information systems (GIS); and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). The review provides an overview of these methods and their potentials and pitfalls when used to study climate–conflict links. It also discusses how future research can deal with a pluralism of methods in order to gain deeper insights into the relationship between climate change and conflict. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e456. doi: 10.1002/wcc.456

@article{hsiang_estimating_2017,
	title = {Estimating economic damage from climate change in the {United} {States}},
	volume = {356},
	url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362.abstract},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aal4369},
	abstract = {Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2\% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20\% of county income (90\% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).},
	number = {6345},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon and Kopp, Robert and Jina, Amir and Rising, James and Delgado, Michael and Mohan, Shashank and Rasmussen, D. J. and Muir-Wood, Robert and Wilson, Paul and Oppenheimer, Michael and Larsen, Kate and Houser, Trevor},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1362},
}

Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).

@article{diaz_quantifying_2017,
	title = {Quantifying the economic risks of climate change},
	volume = {7},
	copyright = {2017 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3411},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate3411},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}This Review assesses climate change damage functions, which relate climate variables to economic losses, and how integrated information from impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research could be used to improve estimates of economic risk.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {en},
	number = {11},
	urldate = {2017-11-16},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Diaz, Delavane and Moore, Frances},
	month = nov,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {nclimate3411},
}

\textlessp\textgreaterThis Review assesses climate change damage functions, which relate climate variables to economic losses, and how integrated information from impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research could be used to improve estimates of economic risk.\textless/p\textgreater

@misc{burgess_weather_2017,
	title = {Weather, {Climate} {Change} and {Death} in {India}},
	url = {https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585017d2bebafbe412f1a838/t/58fbc9ae17bffcd18b0bbba2/1492896181768/WD_master_170420+%281%29.pdf},
	abstract = {This paper reveals a stark inequality in the effect of ambient temperatures on death in human populations. Using district-level daily weather and annual mortality data from 1957 to 2000, we find that hot days lead to substantial increases in mortality in rural but not urban India. Despite being far poorer, the mortality response in urban India is not dissimilar to that in the US over the same period. Looking into potential mechanisms we find that the rural death effects are driven by hot days in the growing season which reduce productivity and wages in agriculture. Consistent with a model of endogenous survival in the face of credit constraints, we also find that the expansion of bank branches into rural India helped to mitigate these effects. When coupled with a climatological model that predicts many more hot days in a typical year by the end of this century, these estimates imply considerable reductions in rural Indian, but not urban Indian or US, life expectancy ceteris paribus.},
	author = {Burgess, Robin and Deschenes, Olivier and Donaldson, Dave and Greenstone, Michael},
	month = apr,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

This paper reveals a stark inequality in the effect of ambient temperatures on death in human populations. Using district-level daily weather and annual mortality data from 1957 to 2000, we find that hot days lead to substantial increases in mortality in rural but not urban India. Despite being far poorer, the mortality response in urban India is not dissimilar to that in the US over the same period. Looking into potential mechanisms we find that the rural death effects are driven by hot days in the growing season which reduce productivity and wages in agriculture. Consistent with a model of endogenous survival in the face of credit constraints, we also find that the expansion of bank branches into rural India helped to mitigate these effects. When coupled with a climatological model that predicts many more hot days in a typical year by the end of this century, these estimates imply considerable reductions in rural Indian, but not urban Indian or US, life expectancy ceteris paribus.

@article{adler_priority_2017,
	title = {Priority for the worse-off and the social cost of carbon},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3298},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate3298},
	abstract = {The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a key tool in climate policy. The SCC expresses in monetary terms the social impact of the emission of a ton of CO2 in a given year. The SCC is calculated using a ‘social welfare function’ (SWF): a method for assessing social welfare. The dominant SWFin climate policy is the discounted-utilitarian SWF. Individuals’well-being numbers (utilities) are summed, and the values for later generations are reduced (‘discounted’). This SWF has been criticized for ignoring the distribution of well-being and including an arbitrary time preference. Here, we use a ‘prioritarian’ SWF, with no time discount, to calculate the SCC. This SWF gives extra weight (‘priority’) to worse-off individuals. Prioritarianism is a well-developed concept in ethics and welfare economics, but has been rarely used in climate scholarship. We find substantial differences between the discounted-utilitarian and non-discounted prioritarian SCCs.},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2017-09-19},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Adler, Matthew and Anthoff, David and Bosetti, Valentina and Garner, Greg and Keller, Klaus and Treich, Nicolas},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {443--449},
}

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a key tool in climate policy. The SCC expresses in monetary terms the social impact of the emission of a ton of CO2 in a given year. The SCC is calculated using a ‘social welfare function’ (SWF): a method for assessing social welfare. The dominant SWFin climate policy is the discounted-utilitarian SWF. Individuals’well-being numbers (utilities) are summed, and the values for later generations are reduced (‘discounted’). This SWF has been criticized for ignoring the distribution of well-being and including an arbitrary time preference. Here, we use a ‘prioritarian’ SWF, with no time discount, to calculate the SCC. This SWF gives extra weight (‘priority’) to worse-off individuals. Prioritarianism is a well-developed concept in ethics and welfare economics, but has been rarely used in climate scholarship. We find substantial differences between the discounted-utilitarian and non-discounted prioritarian SCCs.

@article{riahi_shared_2017,
	title = {Shared {Socioeconomic} {Pathways} and {Their} {Energy}, {Land} {Use}, and {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Emissions} {Implications}, {The} : {An} {Overview}},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {09593780},
	shorttitle = {The {Shared} {Socioeconomic} {Pathways} and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378016300681},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009},
	abstract = {This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Kriegler, Elmar and Edmonds, Jae and O’Neill, Brian C. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Bauer, Nico and Calvin, Katherine and Dellink, Rob and Fricko, Oliver and Lutz, Wolfgang and Popp, Alexander and Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo and Kc, Samir and Leimbach, Marian and Jiang, Leiwen and Kram, Tom and Rao, Shilpa and Emmerling, Johannes and Ebi, Kristie and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpenöder, Florian and Da Silva, Lara Aleluia and Smith, Steve and Stehfest, Elke and Bosetti, Valentina and Eom, Jiyong and Gernaat, David and Masui, Toshihiko and Rogelj, Joeri and Strefler, Jessica and Drouet, Laurent and Krey, Volker and Luderer, Gunnar and Harmsen, Mathijs and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Baumstark, Lavinia and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Kainuma, Mikiko and Klimont, Zbigniew and Marangoni, Giacomo and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Tavoni, Massimo},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {153--168},
}

This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).

@article{sakaguchi_climate_2017,
	title = {Climate {Wars}? {A} {Systematic} {Review} of {Empirical} {Analyses} on the {Links} between {Climate} {Change} and {Violent} {Conflict}},
	issn = {1521-9488, 1468-2486},
	shorttitle = {Climate {Wars}?},
	url = {http://academic.oup.com/isr/article/doi/10.1093/isr/vix022/4349661/Climate-Wars-A-Systematic-Review-of-Empirical},
	doi = {10.1093/isr/vix022},
	abstract = {Global climate change has been connected to myriad societal and environmental consequences, including the potential for a rise in violent conflict. To advance understanding of violent conflict as a threat, we undertake a systematic review of peer-reviewed, empirical analyses examining the potential links between climate change and violent conflict. The review reveals three key findings. First, the reviewed studies offer mixed and varied evidence for links between climate change and violence. A majority of studies find evidence that climate variables are associated with higher levels of violent conflict. However, this general pattern masks many subtleties and countertrends that complicate moving to a simple conclusion that the link between climate change and violence is robust. Second, most studies hypothesize an indirect relationship between climate change and violent conflict mediated by and/or interacting with a complex set of intervening variables; however, these causal pathways have only weak empirical support. Third, the empirical basis of the literature has important limitations. Study findings appear to be sensitive to differing methodological choices, making systematic assessments inconclusive.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-10-16},
	journal = {International Studies Review},
	author = {Sakaguchi, Kendra and Varughese, Anil and Auld, Graeme},
	month = oct,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
}

Global climate change has been connected to myriad societal and environmental consequences, including the potential for a rise in violent conflict. To advance understanding of violent conflict as a threat, we undertake a systematic review of peer-reviewed, empirical analyses examining the potential links between climate change and violent conflict. The review reveals three key findings. First, the reviewed studies offer mixed and varied evidence for links between climate change and violence. A majority of studies find evidence that climate variables are associated with higher levels of violent conflict. However, this general pattern masks many subtleties and countertrends that complicate moving to a simple conclusion that the link between climate change and violence is robust. Second, most studies hypothesize an indirect relationship between climate change and violent conflict mediated by and/or interacting with a complex set of intervening variables; however, these causal pathways have only weak empirical support. Third, the empirical basis of the literature has important limitations. Study findings appear to be sensitive to differing methodological choices, making systematic assessments inconclusive.

@article{pindyck_coase_2017,
	title = {Coase {Lecture}-{Taxes}, {Targets} and the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	volume = {84},
	issn = {00130427},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ecca.12243},
	doi = {10.1111/ecca.12243},
	abstract = {In environmental economics, the marginal external cost of emitting a pollutant determines the optimal abatement policy, which might take the form of an emissions tax. But the marginal external cost is often difficult to estimate. This is especially the case when it comes to climate change; estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) range from around \$10 per metric ton to well over \$200 per metric ton, and there has been little or no movement toward a consensus number. Partly as a result, rather than an SCC-based carbon tax, climate policy has focused on a set of targets that would put limits on temperature increases or atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which in turn imply targets for emission reductions. Economics, however, can tell us little about whether such targets are socially optimal. I discuss the trade-off between taxes versus targets as the focus of policy, explain why it has been so difficult to estimate a marginal SCC, and suggest an approach to estimating an average SCC through the use of expert elicitation. I argue that such an approach could serve as the basis for a harmonized carbon tax.},
	language = {en},
	number = {335},
	urldate = {2017-08-01},
	journal = {Economica},
	author = {Pindyck, Robert S.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {345--364},
}

In environmental economics, the marginal external cost of emitting a pollutant determines the optimal abatement policy, which might take the form of an emissions tax. But the marginal external cost is often difficult to estimate. This is especially the case when it comes to climate change; estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) range from around $10 per metric ton to well over $200 per metric ton, and there has been little or no movement toward a consensus number. Partly as a result, rather than an SCC-based carbon tax, climate policy has focused on a set of targets that would put limits on temperature increases or atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which in turn imply targets for emission reductions. Economics, however, can tell us little about whether such targets are socially optimal. I discuss the trade-off between taxes versus targets as the focus of policy, explain why it has been so difficult to estimate a marginal SCC, and suggest an approach to estimating an average SCC through the use of expert elicitation. I argue that such an approach could serve as the basis for a harmonized carbon tax.

@article{raftery_less_2017,
	title = {Less than {2C} warming by 2100 unlikely},
	volume = {advance online publication},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3352},
	journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
	author = {Raftery, Adrian E. and Zimmer, Alec and Frierson, Dargan M. W. and Startz, Richard and Liu, Peiran},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
}

@article{weyant_contributions_2017,
	title = {Some {Contributions} of {Integrated} {Assessment} {Models} of {Global} {Climate} {Change}},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1750-6816, 1750-6824},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/reep/rew018},
	doi = {10.1093/reep/rew018},
	abstract = {It is now clear that human-induced climate change is caused by (1) oil, gas, coal, and biofuel combustion in utility and industrial boilers and land, sea, and air transportation systems that produce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other radiatively active gases to the atmosphere; and (2) land use and land use change activities that release CO2, methane, and/or nitrous oxide to the atmosphere (IPCC 2013). Emissions of these substances lead to net increases in the accumulations
of these gases in the atmosphere (i.e., above those that occur naturally). Because these gases allow more of the heat from the sun’s radiation through to the earth’s surface than from the earth’s surface back out to deep space, they are generally referred to as greenhouse gases (GHGs). Assessments of the effects of climate change on people and their property, wildlife, and ecosystems indicate that these effects can be significant (IPCC 2014a). This has led to the consideration of three main approaches for ameliorating the impacts of climate change: (1) mitigation of GHG emissions, (2) adaptation to any climate changes that might occur, and (3) geoengineering to influence the amount of solar energy reaching the earth’s surface and/or to influence the chemistry of the oceans. Because the relationships within and between the various biogeochemical and socioeconomic components of the earth system can be quite complex, a number of quantitative models have been developed to study earth systemwide climate changes and the effect of various types of public policies on projections of future climate change. These models have become known as “integrated assessment of climate change” or simply integrated assessment models (IAMs).},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-09-19},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	author = {Weyant, John},
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {115--137},
}

It is now clear that human-induced climate change is caused by (1) oil, gas, coal, and biofuel combustion in utility and industrial boilers and land, sea, and air transportation systems that produce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other radiatively active gases to the atmosphere; and (2) land use and land use change activities that release CO2, methane, and/or nitrous oxide to the atmosphere (IPCC 2013). Emissions of these substances lead to net increases in the accumulations of these gases in the atmosphere (i.e., above those that occur naturally). Because these gases allow more of the heat from the sun’s radiation through to the earth’s surface than from the earth’s surface back out to deep space, they are generally referred to as greenhouse gases (GHGs). Assessments of the effects of climate change on people and their property, wildlife, and ecosystems indicate that these effects can be significant (IPCC 2014a). This has led to the consideration of three main approaches for ameliorating the impacts of climate change: (1) mitigation of GHG emissions, (2) adaptation to any climate changes that might occur, and (3) geoengineering to influence the amount of solar energy reaching the earth’s surface and/or to influence the chemistry of the oceans. Because the relationships within and between the various biogeochemical and socioeconomic components of the earth system can be quite complex, a number of quantitative models have been developed to study earth systemwide climate changes and the effect of various types of public policies on projections of future climate change. These models have become known as “integrated assessment of climate change” or simply integrated assessment models (IAMs).

@article{zhao_temperature_2017,
	title = {Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/08/10/1701762114.abstract},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1701762114},
	abstract = {Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0\%, rice by 3.2\%, maize by 7.4\%, and soybean by 3.1\%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Zhao, Chuang and Liu, Bing and Piao, Shilong and Wang, Xuhui and Lobell, David B. and Huang, Yao and Huang, Mengtian and Yao, Yitong and Bassu, Simona and Ciais, Philippe and Durand, Jean-Louis and Elliott, Joshua and Ewert, Frank and Janssens, Ivan A. and Li, Tao and Lin, Erda and Liu, Qiang and Martre, Pierre and Müller, Christoph and Peng, Shushi and Peñuelas, Josep and Ruane, Alex C. and Wallach, Daniel and Wang, Tao and Wu, Donghai and Liu, Zhuo and Zhu, Yan and Zhu, Zaichun and Asseng, Senthold},
	month = aug,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

@article{tubi_drought_2016,
	title = {Drought and cooperation in a conflict prone area: {Bedouin} herders and {Jewish} farmers in {Israel}'s northern {Negev}, 1957–1963},
	volume = {51},
	issn = {0962-6298},
	shorttitle = {Drought and cooperation in a conflict prone area},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629815001092},
	doi = {10.1016/j.polgeo.2015.11.009},
	abstract = {Climate change is increasingly considered a security problem by academics and politicians alike. Although research is challenging such neo-Malthusian views, it focuses on conflict, or lack thereof, paying limited attention, if any, to cooperation. This study examines the effect of a severe drought on a spectrum of both conflict and cooperation in a highly incendiary setting, between Muslim Bedouin herders and Jewish agricultural settlements in Israel's semi-arid northern Negev region. This region, lying between the Mediterranean zone and the Negev Desert, has historically been a battle ground between farmers and pastoralists. Using archival data, both conflictive and cooperative interactions between the two groups during the 1957–63 drought, the worst in the 20th century, were examined. The results indicate that although the entire range of responses occurred, violence was limited and occurred only when some of the Bedouins migrated to the more northern Mediterranean zone. In the semi-arid northern Negev the Bedouins and two settlements engaged in substantive cooperation and assistance. Grazing on damaged crops in return for payment was also practiced during the drought. A number of factors that affected both conflict and cooperation are identified. The severity of conflicts increased when farmers and herders lacked previous familiarity, while the need to reduce the drought's impacts and settlements' left-wing political affiliation formed main incentives for cooperation. Measures taken by state institutions to directly reduce frictions and to provide relief assistance were central to the overall limited level of conflict, but also reinforced the power disparities between the groups.},
	urldate = {2018-10-07},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {Tubi, Amit and Feitelson, Eran},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {Climate change, Conflict, Cooperation, Drought, Farmer, Herder},
	pages = {30--42},
}

Climate change is increasingly considered a security problem by academics and politicians alike. Although research is challenging such neo-Malthusian views, it focuses on conflict, or lack thereof, paying limited attention, if any, to cooperation. This study examines the effect of a severe drought on a spectrum of both conflict and cooperation in a highly incendiary setting, between Muslim Bedouin herders and Jewish agricultural settlements in Israel's semi-arid northern Negev region. This region, lying between the Mediterranean zone and the Negev Desert, has historically been a battle ground between farmers and pastoralists. Using archival data, both conflictive and cooperative interactions between the two groups during the 1957–63 drought, the worst in the 20th century, were examined. The results indicate that although the entire range of responses occurred, violence was limited and occurred only when some of the Bedouins migrated to the more northern Mediterranean zone. In the semi-arid northern Negev the Bedouins and two settlements engaged in substantive cooperation and assistance. Grazing on damaged crops in return for payment was also practiced during the drought. A number of factors that affected both conflict and cooperation are identified. The severity of conflicts increased when farmers and herders lacked previous familiarity, while the need to reduce the drought's impacts and settlements' left-wing political affiliation formed main incentives for cooperation. Measures taken by state institutions to directly reduce frictions and to provide relief assistance were central to the overall limited level of conflict, but also reinforced the power disparities between the groups.

@article{schleussner_armed-conflict_2016,
	title = {Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries},
	volume = {113},
	number = {33},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Donges, Jonathan F. and Donner, Reik V. and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {9216--9221},
}

@article{papaioannou_climate_2016,
	title = {Climate shocks and conflict: {Evidence} from colonial {Nigeria}},
	volume = {50},
	shorttitle = {Climate shocks and conflict},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {Papaioannou, Kostadis J.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {33--47},
}

@article{mares_climate_2016,
	title = {Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities},
	volume = {135},
	shorttitle = {Climate change and interpersonal violence},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Climatic change},
	author = {Mares, Dennis M. and Moffett, Kenneth W.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {297--310},
}

@article{detges_local_2016,
	title = {Local conditions of drought-related violence in sub-{Saharan} {Africa}: {The} role of road and water infrastructures},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {0022-3433},
	shorttitle = {Local conditions of drought-related violence in sub-{Saharan} {Africa}},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316651922},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343316651922},
	abstract = {Despite growing concerns about the possible security implications of extreme precipitation shortfalls in vulnerable and politically fragile regions, the particular conditions that make armed violence more or less likely in times of drought remain poorly understood. Using a spatially disaggregated research design and focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, the present analysis assesses how far violent and nonviolent outcomes in the wake of drought can be accounted for by regional differences in the provision of key infrastructures that help coping with drought and preventing violence. The results indicate that civil conflict events in connection with drought are more likely in administrative areas with poorly developed road infrastructures. Drought-related communal violence, on the other hand, is more likely in regions where an important part of the population lacks access to an improved water source. Thus, while the provision of key infrastructures seems to moderate local conflict risks in connection with drought, there are nevertheless important distinctions with regard to different types of infrastructures and forms of armed violence. However, the importance of precipitation shortfalls as a conflict-facilitating factor in sub-Saharan Africa should not be overstated, as the overall contribution of drought measures to predicting violent events is modest in all calculated models.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Detges, Adrien},
	month = sep,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {696--710},
}

Despite growing concerns about the possible security implications of extreme precipitation shortfalls in vulnerable and politically fragile regions, the particular conditions that make armed violence more or less likely in times of drought remain poorly understood. Using a spatially disaggregated research design and focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, the present analysis assesses how far violent and nonviolent outcomes in the wake of drought can be accounted for by regional differences in the provision of key infrastructures that help coping with drought and preventing violence. The results indicate that civil conflict events in connection with drought are more likely in administrative areas with poorly developed road infrastructures. Drought-related communal violence, on the other hand, is more likely in regions where an important part of the population lacks access to an improved water source. Thus, while the provision of key infrastructures seems to moderate local conflict risks in connection with drought, there are nevertheless important distinctions with regard to different types of infrastructures and forms of armed violence. However, the importance of precipitation shortfalls as a conflict-facilitating factor in sub-Saharan Africa should not be overstated, as the overall contribution of drought measures to predicting violent events is modest in all calculated models.

@article{ghimire_floods_2016,
	title = {Floods and armed conflict},
	volume = {21},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Environment and development economics},
	author = {Ghimire, Ramesh and Ferreira, Susana},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {23--52},
}

@article{ghimire_floods_2016-1,
	title = {Floods and armed conflict},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {1355-770X, 1469-4395},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/environment-and-development-economics/article/floods-and-armed-conflict/13C587E71F2C14A165F3DABEE892BBA4},
	doi = {10.1017/S1355770X15000157},
	abstract = {We estimate the impact of large, catastrophic floods on internal armed conflict using global data on large floods between 1985 and 2009. The results suggest that while large floods did not ignite new conflict, they fueled existing armed conflicts. Floods and armed conflict are endogenously determined, and we show that empirically addressing this endogeneity is important. The estimated effects of floods on conflict prevalence are substantially larger in specifications that control for the endogeneity of floods, suggesting that treating natural disasters as exogenous phenomena may underestimate their impacts on sociopolitical outcomes.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Environment and Development Economics},
	author = {Ghimire, Ramesh and Ferreira, Susana},
	month = feb,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {23--52},
}

We estimate the impact of large, catastrophic floods on internal armed conflict using global data on large floods between 1985 and 2009. The results suggest that while large floods did not ignite new conflict, they fueled existing armed conflicts. Floods and armed conflict are endogenously determined, and we show that empirically addressing this endogeneity is important. The estimated effects of floods on conflict prevalence are substantially larger in specifications that control for the endogeneity of floods, suggesting that treating natural disasters as exogenous phenomena may underestimate their impacts on sociopolitical outcomes.

@article{caruso_climate_2016,
	title = {Climate change, rice crops, and violence: {Evidence} from {Indonesia}},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {0022-3433},
	shorttitle = {Climate change, rice crops, and violence},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343315616061},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343315616061},
	abstract = {This article contributes to the literature on the nexus between climate change and violence by focusing on Indonesia over the period 1993–2003. Rice is the staple food in Indonesia and we investigate whether its scarcity can be blamed for fueling violence. Following insights from the natural science literature, which claims that increases in minimum temperature reduce rice yields, we maintain that increases in minimum temperature reduce food availability in many provinces, which in turn raises the emergence of actual violence. We adopt an instrumental variable approach and select the instruments taking into account the rice growing calendar. Results show that an increase of the minimum temperature during the core month of the rice growing season, that is, December, determines an increase in violence stimulated by the reduction in future rice production per capita. Results are robust across a number of different functional specifications and estimation methods. From a methodological point of view, we claim that the inconclusive results obtained in this literature may be caused by an overlook of the correct bundle crop/temperature. Studies concentrating on several countries with different crops and using variations of average temperature as a measure of climate change missed the biological mechanism behind the relationship between climate change and violence.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Caruso, Raul and Petrarca, Ilaria and Ricciuti, Roberto},
	month = jan,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {66--83},
}

This article contributes to the literature on the nexus between climate change and violence by focusing on Indonesia over the period 1993–2003. Rice is the staple food in Indonesia and we investigate whether its scarcity can be blamed for fueling violence. Following insights from the natural science literature, which claims that increases in minimum temperature reduce rice yields, we maintain that increases in minimum temperature reduce food availability in many provinces, which in turn raises the emergence of actual violence. We adopt an instrumental variable approach and select the instruments taking into account the rice growing calendar. Results show that an increase of the minimum temperature during the core month of the rice growing season, that is, December, determines an increase in violence stimulated by the reduction in future rice production per capita. Results are robust across a number of different functional specifications and estimation methods. From a methodological point of view, we claim that the inconclusive results obtained in this literature may be caused by an overlook of the correct bundle crop/temperature. Studies concentrating on several countries with different crops and using variations of average temperature as a measure of climate change missed the biological mechanism behind the relationship between climate change and violence.

@article{amegah_temperature-related_2016,
	title = {Temperature-related morbidity and mortality in {Sub}-{Saharan} {Africa}: {A} systematic review of the empirical evidence},
	volume = {91},
	issn = {0160-4120},
	shorttitle = {Temperature-related morbidity and mortality in {Sub}-{Saharan} {Africa}},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412016300630},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2016.02.027},
	abstract = {Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) contributes very little to overall climate change and yet it is estimated to bear the highest burden of climate change, with 34\% of the global DALYs attributable to the effects of climate change found in SSA. With the exception of vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria, there is very limited research on human health effects of climate change in SSA, in spite of growing awareness of the region's vulnerability to climate change. Our objective is to systematically review all studies investigating temperature variability and non-vector borne morbidity and mortality in SSA to establish the state and quality of available evidence, identify gaps in knowledge, and propose future research priorities. PubMed, Ovid Medline and Scopus were searched from their inception to the end of December 2014. We modified the GRADE guidelines to rate the quality of the body of evidence. Of 6745 studies screened, 23 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria. Moderate evidence exists to associate temperature variability with cholera outbreaks, cardiovascular disease hospitalization and deaths, and all-cause deaths in the region. The quality of evidence on child undernutrition is low, and for diarrhea occurrence, meningitis, Ebola, asthma and respiratory diseases, and skin diseases, very low. The evidence base is somehow weakened by the limited number of studies uncovered, methodological limitations of the studies, and notable inconsistencies in the study findings. Further research with robust study designs and standardized analytical methods is thus needed to produce more credible evidence base to inform climate change preparedness plans and public health policies for improved adaptive capacity in SSA. Investment in meteorological services, and strengthening of health information systems is also required to guarantee timely, up-to-date and reliable data.},
	number = {Supplement C},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Environment International},
	author = {Amegah, A. Kofi and Rezza, Giovanni and Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.},
	month = may,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {GA, Geography: Africa, Sector: Health, Untagged},
	pages = {133--149},
}

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) contributes very little to overall climate change and yet it is estimated to bear the highest burden of climate change, with 34% of the global DALYs attributable to the effects of climate change found in SSA. With the exception of vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria, there is very limited research on human health effects of climate change in SSA, in spite of growing awareness of the region's vulnerability to climate change. Our objective is to systematically review all studies investigating temperature variability and non-vector borne morbidity and mortality in SSA to establish the state and quality of available evidence, identify gaps in knowledge, and propose future research priorities. PubMed, Ovid Medline and Scopus were searched from their inception to the end of December 2014. We modified the GRADE guidelines to rate the quality of the body of evidence. Of 6745 studies screened, 23 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria. Moderate evidence exists to associate temperature variability with cholera outbreaks, cardiovascular disease hospitalization and deaths, and all-cause deaths in the region. The quality of evidence on child undernutrition is low, and for diarrhea occurrence, meningitis, Ebola, asthma and respiratory diseases, and skin diseases, very low. The evidence base is somehow weakened by the limited number of studies uncovered, methodological limitations of the studies, and notable inconsistencies in the study findings. Further research with robust study designs and standardized analytical methods is thus needed to produce more credible evidence base to inform climate change preparedness plans and public health policies for improved adaptive capacity in SSA. Investment in meteorological services, and strengthening of health information systems is also required to guarantee timely, up-to-date and reliable data.

@book{committee_on_assessing_approaches_to_updating_the_social_cost_of_carbon_assessment_2016,
	address = {Washington, D.C.},
	title = {Assessment of a {Near}-term {Update} to the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	isbn = {978-0-309-39145-0},
	url = {http://www.nap.edu/catalog/21898},
	abstract = {The social cost of carbon (SCC) for a given year is an estimate, in dollars, of the present discounted value of the damage caused by a 1-metric ton increase in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere in that year; or equivalently, the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions by the same amount in that given year. The SCC is intended to provide a comprehensive measure of the monetized value of the net damages from global climate change from an additional unit of CO2, including, but not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, energy use, human health effects, and property damages from increased flood risk. Federal agencies use the SCC to value the CO2 emissions impacts of various policies including emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, regulations of industrial air pollutants from industrial manufacturing, emission standards for power plants and solid waste incineration, and appliance energy efficiency standards.

There are significant challenges to estimating a dollar value that reflects all the physical, human, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change. Recognizing that the models and scientific data underlying the SCC estimates evolve and improve over time, the federal government made a commitment to provide regular updates to the estimates. To assist with future revisions of the SCC, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) requested the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine complete a study that assessed the merits and challenges of a limited near-term update to the SCC and of a comprehensive update of the SCC to ensure that the estimates reflect the best available science. This interim report focuses on near-term updates to the SCC estimates.},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	publisher = {National Academies Press},
	author = {{Committee on Assessing Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon} and {Board on Environmental Change and Society} and {Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education} and {National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine}},
	year = {2016},
	doi = {10.17226/21898},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Global, Method: Litearture Review, Method: Theoretical, Other SCC, Sector: SCC Review or Discussion, Tags Edited},
}

The social cost of carbon (SCC) for a given year is an estimate, in dollars, of the present discounted value of the damage caused by a 1-metric ton increase in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere in that year; or equivalently, the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions by the same amount in that given year. The SCC is intended to provide a comprehensive measure of the monetized value of the net damages from global climate change from an additional unit of CO2, including, but not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, energy use, human health effects, and property damages from increased flood risk. Federal agencies use the SCC to value the CO2 emissions impacts of various policies including emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, regulations of industrial air pollutants from industrial manufacturing, emission standards for power plants and solid waste incineration, and appliance energy efficiency standards. There are significant challenges to estimating a dollar value that reflects all the physical, human, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change. Recognizing that the models and scientific data underlying the SCC estimates evolve and improve over time, the federal government made a commitment to provide regular updates to the estimates. To assist with future revisions of the SCC, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) requested the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine complete a study that assessed the merits and challenges of a limited near-term update to the SCC and of a comprehensive update of the SCC to ensure that the estimates reflect the best available science. This interim report focuses on near-term updates to the SCC estimates.

@article{carleton_social_2016,
	title = {Social and economic impacts of climate},
	volume = {353},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aad9837},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aad9837},
	abstract = {For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent “adaptation gaps,” current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by {\textasciitilde}48\%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by {\textasciitilde}11\%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by {\textasciitilde}0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6304},
	urldate = {2017-05-17},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Carleton, T. A. and Hsiang, S. M.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Global, Issue, Method: Empirical, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {aad9837--aad9837},
}

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent “adaptation gaps,” current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.

@misc{roson_estimation_2016,
	title = {Estimation of climate change damage functions for 140 regions in the {GTAP9} database},
	shorttitle = {Policy {Research} {Working} {Paper} 7728},
	url = {https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/24643/Estimation0of00n0the0GTAP90database.pdf;sequence=1},
	abstract = {Climate change damage (or, more correctly, impact) functions relate variations in temperature (or other climate variables) to economic impacts in various dimensions, and are at the basis of quantitative modeling exercises for the assessment of climate change policies. This document provides a summary of results from a series of meta-analyses aimed at estimating parameters for six specific damage functions, referring to: sea level rise, agricultural productivity, heat effects on labor productivity, human health, tourism flows, and households' energy demand. All parameters of the damage functions are estimated for each of the 140 countries and regions in the Global Trade Analysis Project 9 data set. To illustrate the salient characteristics of the estimates, the change in real gross domestic product is approximated for the different effects, in all regions, corresponding to an increase in average temperature of +3°C. After considering the overall impact, the paper highlights which factor is the most significant one in each country, and elaborates on the distributional consequences of climate change.},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	publisher = {World Bank},
	author = {Roson, Roberto and Sartori, Martina},
	month = jun,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {CK, Damages, Geography: Regional, Geography: Revisit, Issue, Method: Empirical, Method: Meta-Analysis, Method: Mixed Methods, Sector: Agriculture, Sector: Energy, Sector: Health, Sector: Labor Supply and Productivity, Sector: Sea Level Rise},
}

Climate change damage (or, more correctly, impact) functions relate variations in temperature (or other climate variables) to economic impacts in various dimensions, and are at the basis of quantitative modeling exercises for the assessment of climate change policies. This document provides a summary of results from a series of meta-analyses aimed at estimating parameters for six specific damage functions, referring to: sea level rise, agricultural productivity, heat effects on labor productivity, human health, tourism flows, and households' energy demand. All parameters of the damage functions are estimated for each of the 140 countries and regions in the Global Trade Analysis Project 9 data set. To illustrate the salient characteristics of the estimates, the change in real gross domestic product is approximated for the different effects, in all regions, corresponding to an increase in average temperature of +3°C. After considering the overall impact, the paper highlights which factor is the most significant one in each country, and elaborates on the distributional consequences of climate change.

@article{chen_long-term_2016,
	title = {Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {02649993},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264999315003193},
	doi = {10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.023},
	abstract = {A growing concern for using large scale applied general equilibrium models to analyze energy and environmental policies has been whether these models produce reliable projections. Based on the latest MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model we developed, this study aims to tackle this question in several ways, including enriching the representation of consumer preferences to generate changes in consumption pattern consistent to those observed in different stages of economic development, comparing results of historical simulations against actual data, and conducting sensitivity analyses of future projections to key parameters under various policy scenarios. We find that: 1) as the economies grow, the empirically observed income elasticities of demand are better represented by our setting than by a pure Stone–Geary approach, 2) historical simulations in general perform better in developed regions than in developing regions, and 3) simulation results are more sensitive to GDP growth than energy and non-energy substitution elasticities and autonomous energy efficiency improvement.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-05-17},
	journal = {Economic Modelling},
	author = {Chen, Y.-H. Henry and Paltsev, Sergey and Reilly, John M. and Morris, Jennifer F. and Babiker, Mustafa H.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Sector: Agriculture, Sector: Energy, Tags Edited, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {867--883},
}

A growing concern for using large scale applied general equilibrium models to analyze energy and environmental policies has been whether these models produce reliable projections. Based on the latest MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model we developed, this study aims to tackle this question in several ways, including enriching the representation of consumer preferences to generate changes in consumption pattern consistent to those observed in different stages of economic development, comparing results of historical simulations against actual data, and conducting sensitivity analyses of future projections to key parameters under various policy scenarios. We find that: 1) as the economies grow, the empirically observed income elasticities of demand are better represented by our setting than by a pure Stone–Geary approach, 2) historical simulations in general perform better in developed regions than in developing regions, and 3) simulation results are more sensitive to GDP growth than energy and non-energy substitution elasticities and autonomous energy efficiency improvement.

@article{cai_risk_2016,
	title = {Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid {CO2} emission reduction},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2964},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2964},
	abstract = {Evidence suggests that several elements of the climate system could be tipped into a different state by global warming, causing irreversible economic damages. To address their policy implications, we incorporated five interacting climate tipping points into a stochastic-dynamic integrated assessment model, calibrating their likelihoods and interactions on results from an existing expert elicitation. Here we show that combining realistic assumptions about policymakers’ preferences under uncertainty, with the prospect of multiple future interacting climate tipping points, increases the present social cost of carbon in the model nearly eightfold from US\$15 per tCO2 to US\$116 per tCO2. Furthermore, passing some tipping points increases the likelihood of other tipping points occurring to such an extent that it abruptly increases the social cost of carbon. The corresponding optimal policy involves an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, which are stopped by mid-century, leading to climate stabilization at {\textless}1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Cai, Yongyang and Lenton, Timothy M. and Lontzek, Thomas S.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Sector: Tipping Elements, Tags Edited, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {520--525},
}

Evidence suggests that several elements of the climate system could be tipped into a different state by global warming, causing irreversible economic damages. To address their policy implications, we incorporated five interacting climate tipping points into a stochastic-dynamic integrated assessment model, calibrating their likelihoods and interactions on results from an existing expert elicitation. Here we show that combining realistic assumptions about policymakers’ preferences under uncertainty, with the prospect of multiple future interacting climate tipping points, increases the present social cost of carbon in the model nearly eightfold from US$15 per tCO2 to US$116 per tCO2. Furthermore, passing some tipping points increases the likelihood of other tipping points occurring to such an extent that it abruptly increases the social cost of carbon. The corresponding optimal policy involves an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, which are stopped by mid-century, leading to climate stabilization at \textless1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.

@article{bunker_effects_2016,
	title = {Effects of {Air} {Temperature} on {Climate}-{Sensitive} {Mortality} and {Morbidity} {Outcomes} in the {Elderly}; a {Systematic} {Review} and {Meta}-analysis of {Epidemiological} {Evidence}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {2352-3964},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396416300731},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.02.034},
	abstract = {Climate change and rapid population ageing are significant public health challenges. Understanding which health problems are affected by temperature is important for preventing heat and cold-related deaths and illnesses, particularly in the elderly. Here we present a systematic review and meta-analysis on the effects of ambient hot and cold temperature (excluding heat/cold wave only studies) on elderly (65+ years) mortality and morbidity. Time-series or case-crossover studies comprising cause-specific cases of elderly mortality (n=3,933,398) or morbidity (n=12,157,782) were pooled to obtain a percent change (\%) in risk for temperature exposure on cause-specific disease outcomes using a random-effects meta-analysis. A 1°C temperature rise increased cardiovascular (3.44\%, 95\% CI 3.10–3.78), respiratory (3.60\%, 3.18–4.02), and cerebrovascular (1.40\%, 0.06–2.75) mortality. A 1°C temperature reduction increased respiratory (2.90\%, 1.84–3.97) and cardiovascular (1.66\%, 1.19–2.14) mortality. The greatest risk was associated with cold-induced pneumonia (6.89\%, 20–12.99) and respiratory morbidity (4.93\% 1.54–8.44). A 1°C temperature rise increased cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes mellitus, genitourinary, infectious disease and heat-related morbidity. Elevated risks for the elderly were prominent for temperature-induced cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, diabetes, genitourinary, infectious disease, heat-related, and respiratory outcomes. These risks will likely increase with climate change and global ageing.},
	number = {Supplement C},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {EBioMedicine},
	author = {Bunker, Aditi and Wildenhain, Jan and Vandenbergh, Alina and Henschke, Nicholas and Rocklöv, Joacim and Hajat, Shakoor and Sauerborn, Rainer},
	month = apr,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {258--268},
}

Climate change and rapid population ageing are significant public health challenges. Understanding which health problems are affected by temperature is important for preventing heat and cold-related deaths and illnesses, particularly in the elderly. Here we present a systematic review and meta-analysis on the effects of ambient hot and cold temperature (excluding heat/cold wave only studies) on elderly (65+ years) mortality and morbidity. Time-series or case-crossover studies comprising cause-specific cases of elderly mortality (n=3,933,398) or morbidity (n=12,157,782) were pooled to obtain a percent change (%) in risk for temperature exposure on cause-specific disease outcomes using a random-effects meta-analysis. A 1°C temperature rise increased cardiovascular (3.44%, 95% CI 3.10–3.78), respiratory (3.60%, 3.18–4.02), and cerebrovascular (1.40%, 0.06–2.75) mortality. A 1°C temperature reduction increased respiratory (2.90%, 1.84–3.97) and cardiovascular (1.66%, 1.19–2.14) mortality. The greatest risk was associated with cold-induced pneumonia (6.89%, 20–12.99) and respiratory morbidity (4.93% 1.54–8.44). A 1°C temperature rise increased cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes mellitus, genitourinary, infectious disease and heat-related morbidity. Elevated risks for the elderly were prominent for temperature-induced cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, diabetes, genitourinary, infectious disease, heat-related, and respiratory outcomes. These risks will likely increase with climate change and global ageing.

@article{burkart_weather_2016,
	title = {Weather and {Climate} {Change} {Impacts} on {Human} {Mortality} in {Bangladesh}},
	url = {http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160014494},
	abstract = {Weather and climate profoundly affect human health.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	author = {Burkart, Katrin and Lesk, Corey and Bader, Daniel and Horton, Radley and Kinney, Patrick},
	month = jun,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

Weather and climate profoundly affect human health.

@article{arbuthnott_changes_2016,
	title = {Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1476-069X},
	shorttitle = {Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-016-0102-7},
	doi = {10.1186/s12940-016-0102-7},
	abstract = {In the context of a warming climate and increasing urbanisation (with the associated urban heat island effect), interest in understanding temperature related health effects is growing. Previous reviews have examined how the temperature-mortality relationship varies by geographical location. There have been no reviews examining the empirical evidence for changes in population susceptibility to the effects of heat and/or cold over time. The objective of this paper is to review studies which have specifically examined variations in temperature related mortality risks over the 20th and 21st centuries and determine whether population adaptation to heat and/or cold has occurred.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-01-08},
	journal = {Environmental Health},
	author = {Arbuthnott, Katherine and Hajat, Shakoor and Heaviside, Clare and Vardoulakis, Sotiris},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {S33},
}

In the context of a warming climate and increasing urbanisation (with the associated urban heat island effect), interest in understanding temperature related health effects is growing. Previous reviews have examined how the temperature-mortality relationship varies by geographical location. There have been no reviews examining the empirical evidence for changes in population susceptibility to the effects of heat and/or cold over time. The objective of this paper is to review studies which have specifically examined variations in temperature related mortality risks over the 20th and 21st centuries and determine whether population adaptation to heat and/or cold has occurred.

@article{shindell_climate_2016,
	title = {Climate and health impacts of {US} emissions reductions consistent with 2 \textbf{°}{C}},
	volume = {6},
	copyright = {2016 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2935},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2935},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}If the US were to implement power and transport policies consistent with a 2 °C scenario, it could prevent hundreds of thousands of premature deaths each year and be worth billions of dollars to the US economy.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {En},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Shindell, Drew T. and Lee, Yunha and Faluvegi, Greg},
	month = may,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {503},
}

\textlessp\textgreaterIf the US were to implement power and transport policies consistent with a 2 °C scenario, it could prevent hundreds of thousands of premature deaths each year and be worth billions of dollars to the US economy.\textless/p\textgreater

@book{crimmins_impacts_2016,
	address = {Washington, DC},
	title = {The {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change} on {Human} {Health} in the {United} {States}: {A} {Scientific} {Assessment}},
	shorttitle = {The {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change} on {Human} {Health} in the {United} {States}: {A} {Scientific} {Assessment}},
	publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
	author = {{USGCRP}},
	editor = {Crimmins, Allison and Balbus, John and Gamble, Janet L. and Beard, Charles B. and Bell, Jesse E. and Dodgen, Daniel and Eisen, Rebecca J. and Fann, Neal and Hawkins, Michelle D. and Herring, Stephanie C. and Jantarasami, Lesley and Mills, David M. and Saha, Shubhayu and Sarofim, Marcus C. and Trtanj, Juli and Ziska, Lewis},
	year = {2016},
	doi = {10.7930/J0R49NQX},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

@article{wu_impact_2016,
	title = {Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: {Empirical} evidence and human adaptation},
	volume = {86},
	issn = {0160-4120},
	shorttitle = {Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412015300489},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.007},
	abstract = {Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects — the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial–temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.},
	number = {Supplement C},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Environment International},
	author = {Wu, Xiaoxu and Lu, Yongmei and Zhou, Sen and Chen, Lifan and Xu, Bing},
	month = jan,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {14--23},
}

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects — the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial–temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.

@article{muller_measuring_2016,
	title = {Measuring {Uncertainty} about {Long}-{Run} {Predictions}},
	volume = {83},
	issn = {0034-6527, 1467-937X},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/restud/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/restud/rdw003},
	doi = {10.1093/restud/rdw003},
	abstract = {Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider forecasts of the long-horizon average of a scalar variable, typically the growth rate of an economic variable. The main contribution is the construction of prediction sets with asymptotic coverage over a wide range of data generating processes, allowing for stochastically trending mean growth, slow mean reversion and other types of long-run dependencies. We illustrate the method by computing prediction sets for 10 to 75 year average growth rates of U.S. real per-capita GDP and consumption, productivity, price level, stock prices and population.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-05-24},
	journal = {The Review of Economic Studies},
	author = {Müller, Ulrich K. and Watson, Mark W.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {1711--1740},
}

Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider forecasts of the long-horizon average of a scalar variable, typically the growth rate of an economic variable. The main contribution is the construction of prediction sets with asymptotic coverage over a wide range of data generating processes, allowing for stochastically trending mean growth, slow mean reversion and other types of long-run dependencies. We illustrate the method by computing prediction sets for 10 to 75 year average growth rates of U.S. real per-capita GDP and consumption, productivity, price level, stock prices and population.

@misc{moore_welfare_2016,
	title = {Welfare {Changes} from {Climate} {Change} {Impacts} on the {Agricultural} {Sector}: {New} {Damage} {Functions} from {Over} 1000 {Yield} {Studies}},
	url = {https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=5056},
	abstract = {There is now a large body of scientific evidence based on experiments, process-based crop models, and econometric studies, documenting the expected impact of climate change on crop productivity. However, the implications of these changes for more salient economic outcomes such as production, prices, consumption, and welfare are poorly understood. In particular, recent scientific findings are not reflected in the calibration of damage functions in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC), which are instead based on a small number of studies from the early-to-mid 1990s. In this paper we perform the first end-to-end analysis directly linking the scientific literature on biophysical climate impacts to the SCC. We do this by connecting a comprehensive meta-analysis of crop yield response to climate change, a computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), and the FUND IAM. We find negative effects of warming on most crops in most places and very limited potential for adaptation to offset declines. These yield impacts cause prices to increase between 24\% (maize) and 1\% (wheat). The welfare effects of these changes are mediated by terms-of-trade effects that tend to moderate negative impacts in net exporters (Brazil, Canada, United States) and exacerbate them in net importers (Middle East, Japan). Overall, damages from warming are negative in most regions and increase approximately linearly with temperature. Incorporating these new damage functions into FUND more than triples the SCC from \$7 per ton to \$23 per ton. This is due to impacts in the agricultural sector changing from benefits of \$7 per ton to costs of \$9 per ton. This has direct policy implications given FUND is one of three models used by the US government to calculate the SCC applied to cost-benefit analysis of climate-relevant regulations.},
	publisher = {19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC},
	author = {Moore, Frances and Baldos, Uris Lantz C. and Hertel, Thomas W. and Diaz, Delavane},
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
}

There is now a large body of scientific evidence based on experiments, process-based crop models, and econometric studies, documenting the expected impact of climate change on crop productivity. However, the implications of these changes for more salient economic outcomes such as production, prices, consumption, and welfare are poorly understood. In particular, recent scientific findings are not reflected in the calibration of damage functions in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC), which are instead based on a small number of studies from the early-to-mid 1990s. In this paper we perform the first end-to-end analysis directly linking the scientific literature on biophysical climate impacts to the SCC. We do this by connecting a comprehensive meta-analysis of crop yield response to climate change, a computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), and the FUND IAM. We find negative effects of warming on most crops in most places and very limited potential for adaptation to offset declines. These yield impacts cause prices to increase between 24% (maize) and 1% (wheat). The welfare effects of these changes are mediated by terms-of-trade effects that tend to moderate negative impacts in net exporters (Brazil, Canada, United States) and exacerbate them in net importers (Middle East, Japan). Overall, damages from warming are negative in most regions and increase approximately linearly with temperature. Incorporating these new damage functions into FUND more than triples the SCC from $7 per ton to $23 per ton. This is due to impacts in the agricultural sector changing from benefits of $7 per ton to costs of $9 per ton. This has direct policy implications given FUND is one of three models used by the US government to calculate the SCC applied to cost-benefit analysis of climate-relevant regulations.

@article{mares_climate_2016,
	title = {Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities},
	volume = {135},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Climate change and interpersonal violence},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1566-0},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1566-0},
	abstract = {This study estimates the predicted impact of climate change on levels of violence in a sample of 57 countries. We sample western and non-western countries and perform a multilevel ARFIMA regression to},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-11-02},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Mares, Dennis M. and Moffett, Kenneth W.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {297--310},
}

This study estimates the predicted impact of climate change on levels of violence in a sample of 57 countries. We sample western and non-western countries and perform a multilevel ARFIMA regression to

@article{lemoine_economics_2016,
	title = {Economics of tipping the climate dominoes},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2902},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2902},
	abstract = {Greenhouse gas emissions can trigger irreversible regime shifts in the climate system, known as tipping points. Multiple tipping points affect each other's probability of occurrence, potentially causing a domino effect. We analyse climate policy in the presence of a potential domino effect. We incorporate three different tipping points occurring at unknown thresholds into an integrated climate-economy model. The optimal emission policy considers all possible thresholds and the resulting interactions between tipping points, economic activity, and policy responses into the indefinite future. We quantify the cost of delaying optimal emission controls in the presence of uncertain tipping points and also the benefit of detecting when individual tipping points have been triggered. We show that the presence of these tipping points nearly doubles today's optimal carbon tax and reduces peak warming along the optimal path by approximately 1 °C. The presence of these tipping points increases the cost of delaying optimal policy until mid-century by nearly 150\%.},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2017-05-24},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Lemoine, Derek and Traeger, Christian P.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {514--519},
}

Greenhouse gas emissions can trigger irreversible regime shifts in the climate system, known as tipping points. Multiple tipping points affect each other's probability of occurrence, potentially causing a domino effect. We analyse climate policy in the presence of a potential domino effect. We incorporate three different tipping points occurring at unknown thresholds into an integrated climate-economy model. The optimal emission policy considers all possible thresholds and the resulting interactions between tipping points, economic activity, and policy responses into the indefinite future. We quantify the cost of delaying optimal emission controls in the presence of uncertain tipping points and also the benefit of detecting when individual tipping points have been triggered. We show that the presence of these tipping points nearly doubles today's optimal carbon tax and reduces peak warming along the optimal path by approximately 1 °C. The presence of these tipping points increases the cost of delaying optimal policy until mid-century by nearly 150%.

@misc{leard_weather_2016,
	title = {Weather, {Traffic} {Accidents}, and {Exposure} to {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {http://www.rff.org/research/publications/weather-traffic-accidents-and-exposure-climate-change},
	abstract = {Quantifying the costs of climate change requires measurement of direct effects as well as behavioral responses. While behavioral responses have been shown to increase costs, we identify responses that reduce costs, which we define as “voluntary exposure.” We quantify the response of the transportation sector in terms of traffic accidents and travel demand to daily variation in weather. We find warmer temperatures and reduced snowfall are associated with a significant increase in fatal accidents. We find, however, that almost all of the estimated effect of temperature on fatalities is due to changes in exposure for pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists. While the application of these results to middle-of-the-road climate predictions suggests that weather patterns for the end of the century would lead to 397 additional fatalities per year, the associated welfare losses are almost completely offset by voluntary exposure benefits from increased travel by walking, biking, and motorcycling. To facilitate more accurate estimates of climate change impacts, we also introduce the empirical cumulative distribution function method to the economics literature for correcting baseline weather errors from climate simulations.},
	publisher = {Resources for the Future},
	author = {Leard, B. and Roth, K.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

Quantifying the costs of climate change requires measurement of direct effects as well as behavioral responses. While behavioral responses have been shown to increase costs, we identify responses that reduce costs, which we define as “voluntary exposure.” We quantify the response of the transportation sector in terms of traffic accidents and travel demand to daily variation in weather. We find warmer temperatures and reduced snowfall are associated with a significant increase in fatal accidents. We find, however, that almost all of the estimated effect of temperature on fatalities is due to changes in exposure for pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists. While the application of these results to middle-of-the-road climate predictions suggests that weather patterns for the end of the century would lead to 397 additional fatalities per year, the associated welfare losses are almost completely offset by voluntary exposure benefits from increased travel by walking, biking, and motorcycling. To facilitate more accurate estimates of climate change impacts, we also introduce the empirical cumulative distribution function method to the economics literature for correcting baseline weather errors from climate simulations.

@article{kopp_tipping_2016,
	title = {Tipping elements and climate-economic shocks: {Pathways} toward integrated assessment},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {23284277},
	shorttitle = {Tipping elements and climate-economic shocks},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016EF000362},
	doi = {10.1002/2016EF000362},
	abstract = {The literature on the costs of climate change often draws a link between climatic “tipping points” and large economic shocks, frequently called “catastrophes.” The phrase “tipping points” in this context can be misleading. In popular and social scientific discourse, “tipping points” involve abrupt state changes. For some climatic “tipping points,” the commitment to a state change may occur abruptly, but the change itself may be rate-limited and take centuries or longer to realize. Additionally, the connection between climatic “tipping points” and economic losses is tenuous, although emerging empirical and process-model-based tools provide pathways for investigating it. We propose terminology to clarify the distinction between “tipping points” in the popular sense, the critical thresholds exhibited by climatic and social “tipping elements,” and “economic shocks.” The last may be associated with tipping elements, gradual climate change, or nonclimatic triggers. We illustrate our proposed distinctions by surveying the literature on climatic tipping elements, climatically sensitive social tipping elements, and climate–economic shocks, and we propose a research agenda to advance the integrated assessment of all three.},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2017-07-20},
	journal = {Earth's Future},
	author = {Kopp, Robert E. and Shwom, Rachael L. and Wagner, Gernot and Yuan, Jiacan},
	month = aug,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {346--372},
}

The literature on the costs of climate change often draws a link between climatic “tipping points” and large economic shocks, frequently called “catastrophes.” The phrase “tipping points” in this context can be misleading. In popular and social scientific discourse, “tipping points” involve abrupt state changes. For some climatic “tipping points,” the commitment to a state change may occur abruptly, but the change itself may be rate-limited and take centuries or longer to realize. Additionally, the connection between climatic “tipping points” and economic losses is tenuous, although emerging empirical and process-model-based tools provide pathways for investigating it. We propose terminology to clarify the distinction between “tipping points” in the popular sense, the critical thresholds exhibited by climatic and social “tipping elements,” and “economic shocks.” The last may be associated with tipping elements, gradual climate change, or nonclimatic triggers. We illustrate our proposed distinctions by surveying the literature on climatic tipping elements, climatically sensitive social tipping elements, and climate–economic shocks, and we propose a research agenda to advance the integrated assessment of all three.

@misc{hsiang_climate_2016,
	title = {Climate {Econometrics}},
	shorttitle = {{NBER} {Working} {Paper} 22181},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w22181},
	abstract = {Identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. Here, I review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure effects of climate on social and economic outcomes. Because weather variation plays a large role in recent progress, I formalize the relationship between climate and weather from an econometric perspective and discuss their use as identifying variation, highlighting tradeoffs between key assumptions in different research designs and deriving conditions when weather variation exactly identifies the effects of climate. I then describe advances in recent years, such as parameterization of climate variables from a social perspective, nonlinear models with spatial and temporal displacement, characterizing uncertainty, measurement of adaptation, cross-study comparison, and use of empirical estimates to project the impact of future climate change. I conclude by discussing remaining methodological challenges.},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

Identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. Here, I review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure effects of climate on social and economic outcomes. Because weather variation plays a large role in recent progress, I formalize the relationship between climate and weather from an econometric perspective and discuss their use as identifying variation, highlighting tradeoffs between key assumptions in different research designs and deriving conditions when weather variation exactly identifies the effects of climate. I then describe advances in recent years, such as parameterization of climate variables from a social perspective, nonlinear models with spatial and temporal displacement, characterizing uncertainty, measurement of adaptation, cross-study comparison, and use of empirical estimates to project the impact of future climate change. I conclude by discussing remaining methodological challenges.

@misc{harari_conflict_2016,
	title = {Conflict, climate and cells: {A} disaggregated analysis},
	url = {http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~harari/Harari_Papers/HarariLaFerrara_ConflictClimateCells_Nov2016.pdf},
	abstract = {We conduct a geographically and temporally disaggregated empirical analysis of civil conflict at the sub-national level in Africa over the period 1997-2011. Our units of observation are cells of 1 degree of latitude by 1 degree of longitude. We exploit within-year variation in the timing of weather shocks and in the growing season of different crops, as well as spatial variation in crop cover, to construct an original measure of shocks that are relevant for agricultural production. Employing a new drought index we show that negative climate shocks which occur during the growing season of the main crop cultivated in the cell have a sizeable and persistent effect on conflict incidence. We also use state-of-the-art spatial econometric techniques to test for the presence of temporal and spatial spillovers in conflict, and we ?find both to be sizeable and highly statistically signifi?cant. Exploiting variation in the type of conflict episode, we fi?nd that the impact of climate shocks on conflict is particularly signifi?cant when focusing on outcomes such as battles and violence against civilians. Our estimates can be used to predict how future warming scenarios affect the prevalence and diffusion of conflict.},
	author = {Harari, Mariaflavia and La Ferrara, Eliana},
	month = nov,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

We conduct a geographically and temporally disaggregated empirical analysis of civil conflict at the sub-national level in Africa over the period 1997-2011. Our units of observation are cells of 1 degree of latitude by 1 degree of longitude. We exploit within-year variation in the timing of weather shocks and in the growing season of different crops, as well as spatial variation in crop cover, to construct an original measure of shocks that are relevant for agricultural production. Employing a new drought index we show that negative climate shocks which occur during the growing season of the main crop cultivated in the cell have a sizeable and persistent effect on conflict incidence. We also use state-of-the-art spatial econometric techniques to test for the presence of temporal and spatial spillovers in conflict, and we ?find both to be sizeable and highly statistically signifi?cant. Exploiting variation in the type of conflict episode, we fi?nd that the impact of climate shocks on conflict is particularly signifi?cant when focusing on outcomes such as battles and violence against civilians. Our estimates can be used to predict how future warming scenarios affect the prevalence and diffusion of conflict.

@misc{howard_wisdom_2016,
	title = {Wisdom of the {Economic} {Crowd} : {Calibrating} {Integrated} {Assessment} {Models} {Using} {Consensus}, {The}},
	url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/235639/2/HowardSylvan_AAEA2016.pdf},
	abstract = {The social cost of carbon (SCC) is one of the primary tools used to shape greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policies in the United States. The U.S. government’s SCC estimates are derived from three integrated assessment models (IAMs), developed by four climate economists. However, some economists – most prominently Robert Pindyck (2015) – argue that IAMs are over-reliant on the opinions of their modelers and fail to capture the wider consensus of experts. Pindyck (2015) recommends abandoning IAMs altogether, and calculating a simple “average SCC” to reflect the general opinion of experts on climate change. We propose and test an alternate approach: instead of replacing IAMs, we use expert elicitation as a method for calibrating key uncertain parameters in IAMs (Nordhaus (1994), Schauer (1995) and Roughgarden and Schneider (1999) used similar efforts in the 1990s). This approach ensures that official U.S. SCC estimates reflect the wider consensus of the economic community. To test this methodology, we conduct a 15-question online survey of all those who have published an article related to climate change in a highly ranked, peer-reviewed economics or environmental economics journal since 1994. This survey included questions on the appropriate inter-generational discount rate and expected climate damages – two important, highly uncertain parameters in IAMs. We sent the survey to 1,103 experts who met our selection criteria, and received 365 completed surveys. We find strong evidence that expert consensus has shifted since the last expert elicitation studies on the economics of climate change were conducted, more than 20 years ago. In particular, the consensus discount rate has declined and expected damages have increased, such that IAMs – which have been relatively stagnant in their discount rate and damage assumptions – do not reflect the current economic consensus. Our data can help establish a baseline for IAMs, in addition to providing other useful information for policymakers. To illustrate this point, we use the results from this survey to re-calibrate an IAM (DICE-2013R) to reflect the current state of expert opinion on expected climate damages and discount rates, and re-calculate the SCC. In general, we find a significant increase in the SCC – more than 10-fold under most scenarios – supporting the hypothesis that current IAMs do not reflect the current scientific consensus.},
	publisher = {2016 Agricultural \& Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, July 31-August 2},
	author = {Howard, Peter Harrison and Sylvan, Derek},
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is one of the primary tools used to shape greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policies in the United States. The U.S. government’s SCC estimates are derived from three integrated assessment models (IAMs), developed by four climate economists. However, some economists – most prominently Robert Pindyck (2015) – argue that IAMs are over-reliant on the opinions of their modelers and fail to capture the wider consensus of experts. Pindyck (2015) recommends abandoning IAMs altogether, and calculating a simple “average SCC” to reflect the general opinion of experts on climate change. We propose and test an alternate approach: instead of replacing IAMs, we use expert elicitation as a method for calibrating key uncertain parameters in IAMs (Nordhaus (1994), Schauer (1995) and Roughgarden and Schneider (1999) used similar efforts in the 1990s). This approach ensures that official U.S. SCC estimates reflect the wider consensus of the economic community. To test this methodology, we conduct a 15-question online survey of all those who have published an article related to climate change in a highly ranked, peer-reviewed economics or environmental economics journal since 1994. This survey included questions on the appropriate inter-generational discount rate and expected climate damages – two important, highly uncertain parameters in IAMs. We sent the survey to 1,103 experts who met our selection criteria, and received 365 completed surveys. We find strong evidence that expert consensus has shifted since the last expert elicitation studies on the economics of climate change were conducted, more than 20 years ago. In particular, the consensus discount rate has declined and expected damages have increased, such that IAMs – which have been relatively stagnant in their discount rate and damage assumptions – do not reflect the current economic consensus. Our data can help establish a baseline for IAMs, in addition to providing other useful information for policymakers. To illustrate this point, we use the results from this survey to re-calibrate an IAM (DICE-2013R) to reflect the current state of expert opinion on expected climate damages and discount rates, and re-calculate the SCC. In general, we find a significant increase in the SCC – more than 10-fold under most scenarios – supporting the hypothesis that current IAMs do not reflect the current scientific consensus.

@article{howard_think_2016,
	title = {Think {Global}: {International} {Reciprocity} as {Justification} for a {Global} {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	volume = {42},
	url = {http://www.columbiaenvironmentallaw.org/think-global-international-reciprocity-as-justification-for-a-global-social-cost-of-carbon/},
	abstract = {U.S. climate regulations present a special case of federal agencies applying a global, rather than exclusively domestic, perspective to the costs and benefits in their regulatory impact analyses. Since 2010, federal agencies have emphasized global valuations of climate damages for policies that affect carbon dioxide emissions, using a metric called the “Social Cost of Carbon.” More recently, agencies have also begun to use a global valuation of the “Social Cost of Methane,” for methane emissions. Yet lately, these global metrics have come under attack in courtrooms and academic journals, where opponents have challenged the statutory authority and economic justification for global values. This paper defends a continued focus on the global affects of U.S. climate policy, drawing on legal, strategic, and economic arguments.

International reciprocity presents the strongest justification for a global focus. Because the world’s climate is a single interconnected system, the United States benefits greatly when foreign countries consider the global externalities of their greenhouse gas pollution and cut emissions accordingly. Game theory predicts that one viable strategy for the United States to encourage other countries to think globally in setting their climate policies is for the United States to do the same, in a tit-for-tat, lead-by-example, or coalition-building dynamic. In fact, most other countries with climate policies already use a global social cost of carbon or set their carbon taxes or allowances at prices above their domestic-only costs. President Obama’s administration has explicitly chosen to adopt a global social cost of carbon to foster continued reciprocity in other countries’ climate policies. Charged by the U.S. Constitution with managing foreign affairs and coordinating executive branch activities, President Obama deserves political and judicial deference on his choice to calculate the global benefits of U.S. climate regulations.

As for legal authority, the United States has already signed and ratified one international treaty that commits it to the consideration of global climate effects of its domestic actions. Two key statutes for U.S. climate policy — the Clean Air Act and the National Environmental Policy Act — do the same, and the other statutes most used to date for climate regulation give agencies enough discretion to consider global effects. Executive orders further show that administration priorities for international harmonization should shape U.S. regulatory analysis and decisionmaking. Finally, because of the inevitability of significant “spillover” effects and U.S. willingness to pay to prevent climate damages occurring outside U.S. borders, a domestic-only social cost of carbon or methane would fail to transparently disclose the true scope of climate-related costs and benefits that matter to U.S. policymakers and the public.},
	number = {Symposium},
	urldate = {2017-05-23},
	journal = {Columbia Journal of Environmental Law},
	author = {Howard, Peter Harrison and Schwartz, Jason},
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {203--294},
}

U.S. climate regulations present a special case of federal agencies applying a global, rather than exclusively domestic, perspective to the costs and benefits in their regulatory impact analyses. Since 2010, federal agencies have emphasized global valuations of climate damages for policies that affect carbon dioxide emissions, using a metric called the “Social Cost of Carbon.” More recently, agencies have also begun to use a global valuation of the “Social Cost of Methane,” for methane emissions. Yet lately, these global metrics have come under attack in courtrooms and academic journals, where opponents have challenged the statutory authority and economic justification for global values. This paper defends a continued focus on the global affects of U.S. climate policy, drawing on legal, strategic, and economic arguments. International reciprocity presents the strongest justification for a global focus. Because the world’s climate is a single interconnected system, the United States benefits greatly when foreign countries consider the global externalities of their greenhouse gas pollution and cut emissions accordingly. Game theory predicts that one viable strategy for the United States to encourage other countries to think globally in setting their climate policies is for the United States to do the same, in a tit-for-tat, lead-by-example, or coalition-building dynamic. In fact, most other countries with climate policies already use a global social cost of carbon or set their carbon taxes or allowances at prices above their domestic-only costs. President Obama’s administration has explicitly chosen to adopt a global social cost of carbon to foster continued reciprocity in other countries’ climate policies. Charged by the U.S. Constitution with managing foreign affairs and coordinating executive branch activities, President Obama deserves political and judicial deference on his choice to calculate the global benefits of U.S. climate regulations. As for legal authority, the United States has already signed and ratified one international treaty that commits it to the consideration of global climate effects of its domestic actions. Two key statutes for U.S. climate policy — the Clean Air Act and the National Environmental Policy Act — do the same, and the other statutes most used to date for climate regulation give agencies enough discretion to consider global effects. Executive orders further show that administration priorities for international harmonization should shape U.S. regulatory analysis and decisionmaking. Finally, because of the inevitability of significant “spillover” effects and U.S. willingness to pay to prevent climate damages occurring outside U.S. borders, a domestic-only social cost of carbon or methane would fail to transparently disclose the true scope of climate-related costs and benefits that matter to U.S. policymakers and the public.

@article{costinot_evolving_2016,
	title = {Evolving {Comparative} {Advantage} and the {Impact} of {Climate} {Change} in {Agricultural} {Markets}: {Evidence} from 1.7 {Million} {Fields} around the {World}},
	volume = {124},
	issn = {0022-3808, 1537-534X},
	shorttitle = {Evolving {Comparative} {Advantage} and the {Impact} of {Climate} {Change} in {Agricultural} {Markets}},
	url = {http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/684719},
	doi = {10.1086/684719},
	abstract = {A large agronomic literature models the implications of climate change for a variety of crops and locations around the world. The goal of the present paper is to quantify the macro-level consequences of these micro-level shocks. Using an extremely rich micro-level dataset that contains information about the productivity---both before and after climate change---of each of 10 crops for each of 1.7 million fields covering the surface of the Earth, we find that the impact of climate change on these agricultural markets would amount to a 0.26\% reduction in global GDP when trade and production patterns are allowed to adjust.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-09-27},
	journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Costinot, Arnaud and Donaldson, Dave and Smith, Cory},
	month = feb,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {205--248},
}

A large agronomic literature models the implications of climate change for a variety of crops and locations around the world. The goal of the present paper is to quantify the macro-level consequences of these micro-level shocks. Using an extremely rich micro-level dataset that contains information about the productivity—both before and after climate change—of each of 10 crops for each of 1.7 million fields covering the surface of the Earth, we find that the impact of climate change on these agricultural markets would amount to a 0.26% reduction in global GDP when trade and production patterns are allowed to adjust.

@article{emmerling_witch_2016,
	title = {{WITCH} 2016 {Model} - {Documentation} and {Implementation} of the {Shared} {Socioeconomic} {Pathways}, {The}},
	issn = {1556-5068},
	url = {http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2800970},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2800970},
	abstract = {This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed bottom-up energy sector model. A particular focus of the model is the modeling or technical change and RnD investments and the analysis of cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. Moreover, the WITCH 2016 version now includes land-use change modeling based on the GLOBIOM model, and air pollutants, as well as detailed modeling of the transport sector and the possibility for stochastic modeling. This version has been also used to implement the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) set of scenarios and RCP based climate policies to provide a new set of climate scenarios. In this paper, we describe in detail the mathematical formulation of the WITCH model, the solution method and calibration, as well as the implementation of the five SSP scenarios. This report therefore provides detailed information for interested users of the model, and for understanding the implementation of the different "worlds" of the SSP.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
	author = {Emmerling, Johannes and Reis, Lara Aleluia and Bevione, Michela and Berger, Looc and Bosetti, Valentina and Carrara, Samuel and Marangoni, Giacomo and Sferra, Fabio and Tavoni, Massimo and Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan and Havllk, Petr},
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed bottom-up energy sector model. A particular focus of the model is the modeling or technical change and RnD investments and the analysis of cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. Moreover, the WITCH 2016 version now includes land-use change modeling based on the GLOBIOM model, and air pollutants, as well as detailed modeling of the transport sector and the possibility for stochastic modeling. This version has been also used to implement the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) set of scenarios and RCP based climate policies to provide a new set of climate scenarios. In this paper, we describe in detail the mathematical formulation of the WITCH model, the solution method and calibration, as well as the implementation of the five SSP scenarios. This report therefore provides detailed information for interested users of the model, and for understanding the implementation of the different "worlds" of the SSP.

@article{diaz_potential_2016,
	title = {Potential {Disintegration} of the {West} {Antarctic} {Ice} {Sheet}: {Implications} for {Economic} {Analyses} of {Climate} {Policy}, {A}},
	volume = {106},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	shorttitle = {A {Potential} {Disintegration} of the {West} {Antarctic} {Ice} {Sheet}},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.p20161103},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.p20161103},
	abstract = {The Earth system may react in a nonlinear threshold response to climate forcings. Incorporating threshold responses into integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for climate policy analysis poses nontrivial challenges, for example due to methodological limitations and pervasive deep uncertainties. Here we explore a specific threshold response, a potential disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). We review the current scientific understanding of WAIS, identify methodological and conceptual issues, and demonstrate avenues to address some of them through a stochastic hazard IAM framework combining emulation, expert knowledge, and learning. We conclude with a discussion of challenges and research needs.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Diaz, Delavane and Keller, Klaus},
	month = may,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {607--611},
}

The Earth system may react in a nonlinear threshold response to climate forcings. Incorporating threshold responses into integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for climate policy analysis poses nontrivial challenges, for example due to methodological limitations and pervasive deep uncertainties. Here we explore a specific threshold response, a potential disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). We review the current scientific understanding of WAIS, identify methodological and conceptual issues, and demonstrate avenues to address some of them through a stochastic hazard IAM framework combining emulation, expert knowledge, and learning. We conclude with a discussion of challenges and research needs.

@article{diaz_estimating_2016,
	title = {Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the {Coastal} {Impact} and {Adaptation} {Model} ({CIAM})},
	volume = {137},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1675-4},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1675-4},
	abstract = {Coastal sector impacts from sea level rise (SLR) are a key component of the projected economic damages of climate change, a major input to decision-making and design of climate policy. Moreover, the ultimate global costs to coastal resources will depend strongly on adaptation, society’s response to cope with the local impacts. This paper presents a new open-source optimization model to assess global coastal impacts from SLR from the perspective of economic efficiency. The Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM) determines the optimal strategy for adaptation at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments, as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006), based on their socioeconomic characteristics and the potential impacts of relative sea level rise and uncertain sea level extremes. A deterministic application of CIAM demonstrates the model’s ability to assess local impacts and direct costs, choose the least-cost adaptation, and estimate global net damages for several climate scenarios that account for both global and local components of SLR (Kopp et al. 2014). CIAM finds that there is large potential for coastal adaptation to reduce the expected impacts of SLR compared to the alternative of no adaptation, lowering global net present costs through 2100 by a factor of seven to less than \$1.7 trillion, although this does not include initial transition costs to overcome an under-adapted current state. In addition to producing aggregate estimates, CIAM results can also be interpreted at the local level, where retreat (e.g., relocate inland) is often a more cost-effective adaptation strategy than protect (e.g., construct physical defenses).},
	language = {en},
	number = {1-2},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Diaz, Delavane B.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {143--156},
}

Coastal sector impacts from sea level rise (SLR) are a key component of the projected economic damages of climate change, a major input to decision-making and design of climate policy. Moreover, the ultimate global costs to coastal resources will depend strongly on adaptation, society’s response to cope with the local impacts. This paper presents a new open-source optimization model to assess global coastal impacts from SLR from the perspective of economic efficiency. The Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM) determines the optimal strategy for adaptation at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments, as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006), based on their socioeconomic characteristics and the potential impacts of relative sea level rise and uncertain sea level extremes. A deterministic application of CIAM demonstrates the model’s ability to assess local impacts and direct costs, choose the least-cost adaptation, and estimate global net damages for several climate scenarios that account for both global and local components of SLR (Kopp et al. 2014). CIAM finds that there is large potential for coastal adaptation to reduce the expected impacts of SLR compared to the alternative of no adaptation, lowering global net present costs through 2100 by a factor of seven to less than $1.7 trillion, although this does not include initial transition costs to overcome an under-adapted current state. In addition to producing aggregate estimates, CIAM results can also be interpreted at the local level, where retreat (e.g., relocate inland) is often a more cost-effective adaptation strategy than protect (e.g., construct physical defenses).

@article{burke_opportunities_2016,
	title = {Opportunities for advances in climate change economics},
	volume = {352},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aad9634},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aad9634},
	abstract = {There have been dramatic advances in understanding the physical science of climate change, facilitated by substantial and reliable research support. The social value of these advances depends on understanding their implications for society, an arena where research support has been more modest and research progress slower. Some advances have been made in understanding and formalizing climate-economy linkages, but knowledge gaps remain [e.g., as discussed in (1, 2)]. We outline three areas where we believe research progress on climate economics is both sorely needed, in light of policy relevance, and possible within the next few years given appropriate funding: (i) refining the social cost of carbon (SCC), (ii) improving understanding of the consequences of particular policies, and (iii) better understanding of the economic impacts and policy choices in developing economies.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6283},
	urldate = {2017-09-27},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Burke, M. and Craxton, M. and Kolstad, C. D. and Onda, C. and Allcott, H. and Baker, E. and Barrage, L. and Carson, R. and Gillingham, K. and Graff-Zivin, J. and Greenstone, M. and Hallegatte, S. and Hanemann, W. M. and Heal, G. and Hsiang, S. and Jones, B. and Kelly, D. L. and Kopp, R. and Kotchen, M. and Mendelsohn, R. and Meng, K. and Metcalf, G. and Moreno-Cruz, J. and Pindyck, R. and Rose, S. and Rudik, I. and Stock, J. and Tol, R. S. J.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {292--293},
}

There have been dramatic advances in understanding the physical science of climate change, facilitated by substantial and reliable research support. The social value of these advances depends on understanding their implications for society, an arena where research support has been more modest and research progress slower. Some advances have been made in understanding and formalizing climate-economy linkages, but knowledge gaps remain [e.g., as discussed in (1, 2)]. We outline three areas where we believe research progress on climate economics is both sorely needed, in light of policy relevance, and possible within the next few years given appropriate funding: (i) refining the social cost of carbon (SCC), (ii) improving understanding of the consequences of particular policies, and (iii) better understanding of the economic impacts and policy choices in developing economies.

@article{burke_adaptation_2016,
	title = {Adaptation to {Climate} {Change}: {Evidence} from {US} {Agriculture}},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1945-7731, 1945-774X},
	shorttitle = {Adaptation to {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pol.20130025},
	doi = {10.1257/pol.20130025},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {American Economic Journal: Economic Policy},
	author = {Burke, Marshall and Emerick, Kyle},
	month = aug,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {106--140},
}

@article{buchanan_allowances_2016,
	title = {Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise},
	volume = {137},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7},
	abstract = {Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections. We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions of local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. We illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Buchanan, Maya K. and Kopp, Robert E. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Tebaldi, Claudia},
	month = aug,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {347--362},
}

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections. We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions of local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. We illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.

@article{barreca_adapting_2016,
	title = {Adapting to {Climate} {Change}: {The} {Remarkable} {Decline} in the {US} {Temperature}-{Mortality} {Relationship} over the {Twentieth} {Century}},
	volume = {124},
	issn = {0022-3808, 1537-534X},
	shorttitle = {Adapting to {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/684582},
	doi = {10.1086/684582},
	abstract = {This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80°F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day–related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden’s discrete-continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be \$85–\$185 billion (2012 dollars).},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Barreca, Alan and Clay, Karen and Deschenes, Olivier and Greenstone, Michael and Shapiro, Joseph S.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {105--159},
}

This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80°F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day–related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden’s discrete-continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85–$185 billion (2012 dollars).

@article{zaveri_invisible_2016,
	title = {Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and {Indian} agriculture under climate change},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1748-9326},
	shorttitle = {Invisible water, visible impact},
	url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=8/a=084005?key=crossref.282e249ba49a402447ca97db486c06ce},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084005},
	abstract = {India is one of the world's largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India's agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India's food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India's agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scale water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. The large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen.},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2017-06-10},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	author = {Zaveri, Esha and Grogan, Danielle S and Fisher-Vanden, Karen and Frolking, Steve and Lammers, Richard B and Wrenn, Douglas H and Prusevich, Alexander and Nicholas, Robert E},
	month = aug,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {084005},
}

India is one of the world's largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India's agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India's food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India's agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scale water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. The large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen.

@article{yeeles_weathering_2015,
	title = {Weathering unrest: {The} ecology of urban social disturbances in {Africa} and {Asia}},
	volume = {52},
	shorttitle = {Weathering unrest},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Yeeles, Adam},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {158--170},
}

@article{williams_relationship_2015,
	title = {The relationship between temperature and assault in {New} {Zealand}},
	volume = {132},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Climatic change},
	author = {Williams, Matt N. and Hill, Stephen R. and Spicer, John},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {559--573},
}

@article{sarsons_rainfall_2015,
	title = {Rainfall and conflict: {A} cautionary tale},
	volume = {115},
	shorttitle = {Rainfall and conflict},
	journal = {Journal of development Economics},
	author = {Sarsons, Heather},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {62--72},
}

@article{raleigh_devil_2015,
	title = {The devil is in the details: {An} investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across {Africa}},
	volume = {32},
	shorttitle = {The devil is in the details},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Raleigh, Clionadh and Choi, Hyun Jin and Kniveton, Dominic},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {187--199},
}

@article{nardulli_climate_2015,
	title = {Climate change and civil unrest: the impact of rapid-onset disasters},
	volume = {59},
	shorttitle = {Climate change and civil unrest},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Nardulli, Peter F. and Peyton, Buddy and Bajjalieh, Joseph},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {310--335},
}

@article{linke_rainfall_2015,
	title = {Rainfall variability and violence in rural {Kenya}: {Investigating} the effects of drought and the role of local institutions with survey data},
	volume = {34},
	shorttitle = {Rainfall variability and violence in rural {Kenya}},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Linke, Andrew M. and O’Loughlin, John and McCabe, J. Terrence and Tir, Jaroslav and Witmer, Frank DW},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {35--47},
}

@article{buhaug_climate_2015,
	title = {Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in {Sub}-{Saharan} {Africa}},
	volume = {10},
	number = {12},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	author = {Buhaug, Halvard and Benjaminsen, Tor A. and Sjaastad, Espen and Theisen, Ole Magnus},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {125015},
}

@article{bollfrass_effects_2015,
	title = {The effects of temperature on political violence: global evidence at the subnational level},
	volume = {10},
	shorttitle = {The effects of temperature on political violence},
	number = {5},
	journal = {PloS one},
	author = {Bollfrass, Alexander and Shaver, Andrew},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {e0123505},
}

@article{bobekova_third_2015,
	title = {Third party conflict management of transboundary river disputes},
	volume = {26},
	number = {4},
	journal = {International Journal of Conflict Management},
	author = {Bobekova, Elvira},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {402--426},
}

@article{bhavnani_effects_2015,
	title = {The effects of weather-induced migration on sons of the soil riots in {India}},
	volume = {67},
	number = {4},
	journal = {World Politics},
	author = {Bhavnani, Rikhil R. and Lacina, Bethany},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {760--794},
}

@article{burke_climate_2015,
	title = {Climate and {Conflict}},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {1941-1383, 1941-1391},
	url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430},
	abstract = {Until recently, neither climate nor conflict have been core areas of inquiry within economics, but there has been an explosion of research on both topics in the past decade, with a particularly large body of research emerging at their intersection. In this review, we survey this literature on the interlinkages between climate and conflict, by necessity drawing from both economics and other disciplines given the inherent interdisciplinarity of research in this field. We consider many types of human conflict in the review, including both interpersonal conflict — such as domestic violence, road rage, assault, murder, and rape — and intergroup conflict — including riots, ethnic violence, land invasions, gang violence, civil war and other forms of political instability, such as coups. We discuss the key methodological issues in estimating causal relationships in this area, and largely focus on "natural experiments" that exploit variation in climate variables over time, helping to address omitted variable bias concerns. After harmonizing statistical specifications and standardizing estimated effect sizes within each conflict category, we carry out a hierarchical meta-analysis that allows us to estimate the mean effect of climate variation on conflict outcomes as well as to quantify the degree of variability in this effect size across studies. Looking across 55 studies, we find that deviations from moderate temperatures and precipitation patterns systematically increase the risk of conflict, often substantially, with average effects that are highly statistically significant. We find that contemporaneous temperature has the largest average effect by far, with each 1σ increase toward warmer temperatures increasing the frequency of contemporaneous interpersonal conflict by 2.4\% and of intergroup conflict by 11.3\%, but that the 2-period cumulative effect of rainfall on intergroup conflict is also substantial (3.5\%/σ). We also quantify heterogeneity in these effect estimates across settings that is likely important. We conclude by highlighting remaining challenges in this field and the approaches we expect will be most effective at solving them, including identifying mechanisms that link climate to conflict, measuring the ability of societies to adapt to climate changes, and understanding the likely impacts of future global warming.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-08-16},
	journal = {Annual Review of Economics},
	author = {Burke, Marshall and Hsiang, Solomon M. and Miguel, Edward},
	month = aug,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {577--617},
}

Until recently, neither climate nor conflict have been core areas of inquiry within economics, but there has been an explosion of research on both topics in the past decade, with a particularly large body of research emerging at their intersection. In this review, we survey this literature on the interlinkages between climate and conflict, by necessity drawing from both economics and other disciplines given the inherent interdisciplinarity of research in this field. We consider many types of human conflict in the review, including both interpersonal conflict — such as domestic violence, road rage, assault, murder, and rape — and intergroup conflict — including riots, ethnic violence, land invasions, gang violence, civil war and other forms of political instability, such as coups. We discuss the key methodological issues in estimating causal relationships in this area, and largely focus on "natural experiments" that exploit variation in climate variables over time, helping to address omitted variable bias concerns. After harmonizing statistical specifications and standardizing estimated effect sizes within each conflict category, we carry out a hierarchical meta-analysis that allows us to estimate the mean effect of climate variation on conflict outcomes as well as to quantify the degree of variability in this effect size across studies. Looking across 55 studies, we find that deviations from moderate temperatures and precipitation patterns systematically increase the risk of conflict, often substantially, with average effects that are highly statistically significant. We find that contemporaneous temperature has the largest average effect by far, with each 1σ increase toward warmer temperatures increasing the frequency of contemporaneous interpersonal conflict by 2.4% and of intergroup conflict by 11.3%, but that the 2-period cumulative effect of rainfall on intergroup conflict is also substantial (3.5%/σ). We also quantify heterogeneity in these effect estimates across settings that is likely important. We conclude by highlighting remaining challenges in this field and the approaches we expect will be most effective at solving them, including identifying mechanisms that link climate to conflict, measuring the ability of societies to adapt to climate changes, and understanding the likely impacts of future global warming.

@article{waldhoff_overview_2015,
	title = {Overview of the special issue: a multi-model framework to achieve consistent evaluation of climate change impacts in the {United} {States}},
	volume = {131},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Overview of the special issue},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1206-0},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1206-0},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-06-10},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Waldhoff, Stephanie T. and Martinich, Jeremy and Sarofim, Marcus and DeAngelo, Benjamin and McFarland, Jim and Jantarasami, Lesley and Shouse, Kate and Crimmins, Allison and Ohrel, Sara and Li, Jia},
	month = jul,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {GA, Geography: North America, IAM: Yes, Issue, Method: Process-based, Sector: Mitigation, Unclear, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {1--20},
}

@misc{chen_mit_2015,
	title = {{MIT} {EPPA6} {Model}: {Economic} {Growth}, {Energy} {Use}, and {Food} {Consumption}, {The}},
	abstract = {The MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model has been broadly applied on energy and climate policy analyses. In this paper, we provide an updated version of the model based on the most recent global economic database with the base year data of 2007. Also new in this version of the model are non-homothetic preferences, a revised capital vintaging structure, separate accounting of residences, and an improved model structure that smooths its functioning and makes future extensions easier. We compare reference (“business-as-usual”) and policy results for the latest model to the previous version. We also present how projections for the final consumption of food and agricultural products are improved with non-homothetic preferences, and how various assumptions for reference GDP growth, elasticity of substitution between energy and non-energy input, and autonomous energy efficiency improvement may change CO2 emissions and prices.},
	publisher = {MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change},
	author = {Chen, Y.H.H. and Paltsev, S. and Reilly, J.M. and Morris, J.F. and Babiker, M.H.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Sector: Agriculture, Sector: Energy, Tags Edited, Valuation: Yes},
}

The MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model has been broadly applied on energy and climate policy analyses. In this paper, we provide an updated version of the model based on the most recent global economic database with the base year data of 2007. Also new in this version of the model are non-homothetic preferences, a revised capital vintaging structure, separate accounting of residences, and an improved model structure that smooths its functioning and makes future extensions easier. We compare reference (“business-as-usual”) and policy results for the latest model to the previous version. We also present how projections for the final consumption of food and agricultural products are improved with non-homothetic preferences, and how various assumptions for reference GDP growth, elasticity of substitution between energy and non-energy input, and autonomous energy efficiency improvement may change CO2 emissions and prices.

@article{cai_social_2015,
	title = {Social {Cost} of {Carbon} with {Economic} and {Climate} {Risks}, {The}},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w18704.pdf},
	abstract = {There is great uncertainty about the impact of anthropogenic carbon on future economic wellbeing. We use DSICE, a DSGE extension of the DICE2007 model of William Nordhaus, which incorporates beliefs about the uncertain economic impact of possible climate tipping events and uses empirically plausible parameterizations of Epstein-Zin preferences to represent attitudes towards risk. We find that the uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change imply carbon taxes much higher than implied by deterministic models. This analysis indicates that the absence of uncertainty in DICE2007 and similar models may result in substantial understatement of the potential benefits of policies to reduce GHG emissions.},
	urldate = {2017-08-10},
	author = {Cai, Yongyang and Judd, Kenneth L. and Lontzek, Thomas S.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Sector: Tipping Elements, Tags Edited, Valuation: Yes},
}

There is great uncertainty about the impact of anthropogenic carbon on future economic wellbeing. We use DSICE, a DSGE extension of the DICE2007 model of William Nordhaus, which incorporates beliefs about the uncertain economic impact of possible climate tipping events and uses empirically plausible parameterizations of Epstein-Zin preferences to represent attitudes towards risk. We find that the uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change imply carbon taxes much higher than implied by deterministic models. This analysis indicates that the absence of uncertainty in DICE2007 and similar models may result in substantial understatement of the potential benefits of policies to reduce GHG emissions.

@article{shayegh_adaptive_2015,
	title = {Adaptive stochastic integrated assessment modeling of optimal greenhouse gas emission reductions},
	volume = {128},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1300-3},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1300-3},
	abstract = {We develop a method for finding optimal greenhouse gas reduction rates under ongoing uncertainty and re-evaluation of climate parameters over future decades. Uncertainty about climate change includes both overall climate sensitivity and the risk of extreme tipping point events. We incorporate both types of uncertainty into a stochastic model of climate and the economy that has the objective of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions at lowest overall cost over time. Solving this problem is computationally challenging; we introduce a two-step-ahead approximate dynamic programming algorithm to solve the finite time horizon stochastic problem. The uncertainty in climate sensitivity may narrow in the future as the behavior of the climate continues to be observed and as climate science progresses. To incorporate this future knowledge, we use a Bayesian framework to update the two correlated uncertainties over time. The method is illustrated with the DICE integrated assessment model, adding in current estimates of climate sensitivity uncertainty and tipping point risk with an endogenous updating of climate sensitivity based on the occurrence of tipping point events; the method could also be applied to other integrated assessment models with different characterizations of uncertainties and risks.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1-2},
	urldate = {2017-07-27},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Shayegh, Soheil and Thomas, Valerie M.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {CK, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Issue, Sector: Climate Science, Sector: Tipping Elements, Unclear},
	pages = {1--15},
}

We develop a method for finding optimal greenhouse gas reduction rates under ongoing uncertainty and re-evaluation of climate parameters over future decades. Uncertainty about climate change includes both overall climate sensitivity and the risk of extreme tipping point events. We incorporate both types of uncertainty into a stochastic model of climate and the economy that has the objective of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions at lowest overall cost over time. Solving this problem is computationally challenging; we introduce a two-step-ahead approximate dynamic programming algorithm to solve the finite time horizon stochastic problem. The uncertainty in climate sensitivity may narrow in the future as the behavior of the climate continues to be observed and as climate science progresses. To incorporate this future knowledge, we use a Bayesian framework to update the two correlated uncertainties over time. The method is illustrated with the DICE integrated assessment model, adding in current estimates of climate sensitivity uncertainty and tipping point risk with an endogenous updating of climate sensitivity based on the occurrence of tipping point events; the method could also be applied to other integrated assessment models with different characterizations of uncertainties and risks.

@article{cai_environmental_2015,
	title = {Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost benefit assessment of climate policies},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	shorttitle = {Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost?},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1503890112},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1503890112},
	abstract = {Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5\% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5\% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5\% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {15},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Cai, Yongyang and Judd, Kenneth L. and Lenton, Timothy M. and Lontzek, Thomas S. and Narita, Daiju},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Sector: Tipping Elements, Tags Edited, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {4606--4611},
}

Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

@article{campbell_climate_2015,
	title = {Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20140135},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2014.0135},
	abstract = {Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking, at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that, in turn, allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas, which—given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species—are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously, as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Campbell, Lindsay P. and Luther, Caylor and Moo-Llanes, David and Ramsey, Janine M. and Danis-Lozano, Rogelio and Peterson, A. Townsend},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688023},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {20140135},
}

Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking, at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that, in turn, allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas, which—given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species—are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously, as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete.

@article{campbell-lendrum_climate_2015,
	title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	shorttitle = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20130552},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0552},
	abstract = {Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid and Manga, Lucien and Bagayoko, Magaran and Sommerfeld, Johannes},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {20130552},
}

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups.

@article{cheke_potential_2015,
	title = {Potential effects of warmer worms and vectors on onchocerciasis transmission in {West} {Africa}},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {. © 2015 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20130559},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0559},
	abstract = {Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis (Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25°C, the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29°C and 34°C, about 3°C and 7°C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 29°C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 30°C. Small temperature increases (less than 2°C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 33°C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13–41\% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Cheke, Robert A. and Basáñez, Maria-Gloria and Perry, Malorie and White, Michael T. and Garms, Rolf and Obuobie, Emmanuel and Lamberton, Poppy H. L. and Young, Stephen and Osei-Atweneboana, Mike Y. and Intsiful, Joseph and Shen, Mingwang and Boakye, Daniel A. and Wilson, Michael D.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688018},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {20130559},
}

Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis (Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25°C, the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29°C and 34°C, about 3°C and 7°C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 29°C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 30°C. Small temperature increases (less than 2°C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 33°C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13–41% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions.

@article{egizi_evidence_2015,
	title = {Evidence that implicit assumptions of ‘no evolution’ of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20140136},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2014.0136},
	abstract = {Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7–10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Egizi, Andrea and Fefferman, Nina H. and Fonseca, Dina M.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688024},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {20140136},
}

Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7–10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics.

@article{parham_climate_2015,
	title = {Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	shorttitle = {Climate, environmental and socio-economic change},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20130551},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0551},
	abstract = {Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Parham, Paul E. and Waldock, Joanna and Christophides, George K. and Hemming, Deborah and Agusto, Folashade and Evans, Katherine J. and Fefferman, Nina and Gaff, Holly and Gumel, Abba and LaDeau, Shannon and Lenhart, Suzanne and Mickens, Ronald E. and Naumova, Elena N. and Ostfeld, Richard S. and Ready, Paul D. and Thomas, Matthew B. and Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge and Michael, Edwin},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688012},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {20130551},
}

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems.

@article{rogers_dengue:_2015,
	title = {Dengue: recent past and future threats},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {. © 2015 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	shorttitle = {Dengue},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20130562},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0562},
	abstract = {This article explores four key questions about statistical models developed to describe the recent past and future of vector-borne diseases, with special emphasis on dengue:
(1) How many variables should be used to make predictions about the future of vector-borne diseases?(2) Is the spatial resolution of a climate dataset an important determinant of model accuracy?(3) Does inclusion of the future distributions of vectors affect predictions of the futures of the diseases they transmit?(4) Which are the key predictor variables involved in determining the distributions of vector-borne diseases in the present and future?
Examples are given of dengue models using one, five or 10 meteorological variables and at spatial resolutions of from one-sixth to two degrees. Model accuracy is improved with a greater number of descriptor variables, but is surprisingly unaffected by the spatial resolution of the data. Dengue models with a reduced set of climate variables derived from the HadCM3 global circulation model predictions for the 1980s are improved when risk maps for dengue's two main vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) are also included as predictor variables; disease and vector models are projected into the future using the global circulation model predictions for the 2020s, 2040s and 2080s. The Garthwaite–Koch corr-max transformation is presented as a novel way of showing the relative contribution of each of the input predictor variables to the map predictions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Rogers, David J.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688021},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {20130562},
}

This article explores four key questions about statistical models developed to describe the recent past and future of vector-borne diseases, with special emphasis on dengue: (1) How many variables should be used to make predictions about the future of vector-borne diseases?(2) Is the spatial resolution of a climate dataset an important determinant of model accuracy?(3) Does inclusion of the future distributions of vectors affect predictions of the futures of the diseases they transmit?(4) Which are the key predictor variables involved in determining the distributions of vector-borne diseases in the present and future? Examples are given of dengue models using one, five or 10 meteorological variables and at spatial resolutions of from one-sixth to two degrees. Model accuracy is improved with a greater number of descriptor variables, but is surprisingly unaffected by the spatial resolution of the data. Dengue models with a reduced set of climate variables derived from the HadCM3 global circulation model predictions for the 1980s are improved when risk maps for dengue's two main vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) are also included as predictor variables; disease and vector models are projected into the future using the global circulation model predictions for the 2020s, 2040s and 2080s. The Garthwaite–Koch corr-max transformation is presented as a novel way of showing the relative contribution of each of the input predictor variables to the map predictions.

@article{schwartz_projections_2015,
	title = {Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 {U}.{S}. cities using a cluster-based {Poisson} approach},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1476-069X},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-015-0071-2},
	doi = {10.1186/s12940-015-0071-2},
	abstract = {A warming climate will affect future temperature-attributable premature deaths. This analysis is the first to project these deaths at a near national scale for the United States using city and month-specific temperature-mortality relationships.},
	urldate = {2017-12-07},
	journal = {Environmental Health},
	author = {Schwartz, Joel D. and Lee, Mihye and Kinney, Patrick L. and Yang, Suijia and Mills, David and Sarofim, Marcus C. and Jones, Russell and Streeter, Richard and Juliana, Alexis St. and Peers, Jennifer and Horton, Radley M.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {85},
}

A warming climate will affect future temperature-attributable premature deaths. This analysis is the first to project these deaths at a near national scale for the United States using city and month-specific temperature-mortality relationships.

@article{paz_climate_2015,
	title = {Climate change impacts on {West} {Nile} virus transmission in a global context},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20130561},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0561},
	abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed virus of the encephalitic flaviviruses, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The transmission cycle exists in rural and urban areas where the virus infects birds, humans, horses and other mammals. Multiple factors impact the transmission and distribution of WNV, related to the dynamics and interactions between pathogen, vector, vertebrate hosts and environment. Hence, among other drivers, weather conditions have direct and indirect influences on vector competence (the ability to acquire, maintain and transmit the virus), on the vector population dynamic and on the virus replication rate within the mosquito, which are mostly weather dependent. The importance of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and winds) as drivers in WNV epidemiology is increasing under conditions of climate change. Indeed, recent changes in climatic conditions, particularly increased ambient temperature and fluctuations in rainfall amounts, contributed to the maintenance (endemization process) of WNV in various locations in southern Europe, western Asia, the eastern Mediterranean, the Canadian Prairies, parts of the USA and Australia. As predictions show that the current trends are expected to continue, for better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should take into consideration the impacts of climate change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Paz, Shlomit},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688020},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {20130561},
}

West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed virus of the encephalitic flaviviruses, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The transmission cycle exists in rural and urban areas where the virus infects birds, humans, horses and other mammals. Multiple factors impact the transmission and distribution of WNV, related to the dynamics and interactions between pathogen, vector, vertebrate hosts and environment. Hence, among other drivers, weather conditions have direct and indirect influences on vector competence (the ability to acquire, maintain and transmit the virus), on the vector population dynamic and on the virus replication rate within the mosquito, which are mostly weather dependent. The importance of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and winds) as drivers in WNV epidemiology is increasing under conditions of climate change. Indeed, recent changes in climatic conditions, particularly increased ambient temperature and fluctuations in rainfall amounts, contributed to the maintenance (endemization process) of WNV in various locations in southern Europe, western Asia, the eastern Mediterranean, the Canadian Prairies, parts of the USA and Australia. As predictions show that the current trends are expected to continue, for better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should take into consideration the impacts of climate change.

@article{parham_climate_2015-1,
	title = {Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20130557},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0557},
	abstract = {Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Parham, Paul E. and Hughes, Dyfrig A.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688017},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {20130557},
}

Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change.

@article{parham_climate_2015-2,
	title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases of humans},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20140377},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2014.0377},
	abstract = {This theme issue arose out of our perception that while it is widely recognized that an important impact of climate change on human health is likely to be via effects on vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission, the complexity of the biological and non-biological susceptibility modifying pathways by},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Parham, Paul E. and Waldock, Joanna and Christophides, George K. and Michael, Edwin},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688025},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {20140377},
}

This theme issue arose out of our perception that while it is widely recognized that an important impact of climate change on human health is likely to be via effects on vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission, the complexity of the biological and non-biological susceptibility modifying pathways by

@article{gasparrini_mortality_2015,
	title = {Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study},
	volume = {386},
	issn = {0140-6736, 1474-547X},
	shorttitle = {Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature},
	url = {http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0/abstract},
	doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0},
	abstract = {{\textless}h2{\textgreater}Summary{\textless}/h2{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Background{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Methods{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Findings{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71\% (95\% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37\% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00\% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29\%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42\%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86\% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Interpretation{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Funding{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}UK Medical Research Council.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {English},
	number = {9991},
	urldate = {2017-12-06},
	journal = {The Lancet},
	author = {Gasparrini, Antonio and Guo, Yuming and Hashizume, Masahiro and Lavigne, Eric and Zanobetti, Antonella and Schwartz, Joel and Tobias, Aurelio and Tong, Shilu and Rocklöv, Joacim and Forsberg, Bertil and Leone, Michela and Sario, Manuela De and Bell, Michelle L. and Guo, Yue-Liang Leon and Wu, Chang-fu and Kan, Haidong and Yi, Seung-Muk and Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio and Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento and Honda, Yasushi and Kim, Ho and Armstrong, Ben},
	month = jul,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {26003380, 26003380},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {369--375},
}

\textlessh2\textgreaterSummary\textless/h2\textgreater\textlessh3\textgreaterBackground\textless/h3\textgreater\textlessp\textgreaterAlthough studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.\textless/p\textgreater\textlessh3\textgreaterMethods\textless/h3\textgreater\textlessp\textgreaterWe collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.\textless/p\textgreater\textlessh3\textgreaterFindings\textless/h3\textgreater\textlessp\textgreaterWe analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality.\textless/p\textgreater\textlessh3\textgreaterInterpretation\textless/h3\textgreater\textlessp\textgreaterMost of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.\textless/p\textgreater\textlessh3\textgreaterFunding\textless/h3\textgreater\textlessp\textgreaterUK Medical Research Council.\textless/p\textgreater

@article{hoberg_evolution_2015,
	title = {Evolution in action: climate change, biodiversity dynamics and emerging infectious disease},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	shorttitle = {Evolution in action},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20130553},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0553},
	abstract = {Climatological variation and ecological perturbation have been pervasive drivers of faunal assembly, structure and diversification for parasites and pathogens through recurrent events of geographical and host colonization at varying spatial and temporal scales of Earth history. Episodic shifts in climate and environmental settings, in conjunction with ecological mechanisms and host switching, are often critical determinants of parasite diversification, a view counter to more than a century of coevolutionary thinking about the nature of complex host–parasite assemblages. Parasites are resource specialists with restricted host ranges, yet shifts onto relatively unrelated hosts are common during phylogenetic diversification of parasite lineages and directly observable in real time. The emerging Stockholm Paradigm resolves this paradox: Ecological Fitting (EF)—phenotypic flexibility and phylogenetic conservatism in traits related to resource use, most notably host preference—provides many opportunities for rapid host switching in changing environments, without the evolution of novel host-utilization capabilities. Host shifts via EF fuel the expansion phase of the Oscillation Hypothesis of host range and speciation and, more generally, the generation of novel combinations of interacting species within the Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution. In synergy, an environmental dynamic of Taxon Pulses establishes an episodic context for host and geographical colonization.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Hoberg, Eric P. and Brooks, Daniel R.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {20130553},
}

Climatological variation and ecological perturbation have been pervasive drivers of faunal assembly, structure and diversification for parasites and pathogens through recurrent events of geographical and host colonization at varying spatial and temporal scales of Earth history. Episodic shifts in climate and environmental settings, in conjunction with ecological mechanisms and host switching, are often critical determinants of parasite diversification, a view counter to more than a century of coevolutionary thinking about the nature of complex host–parasite assemblages. Parasites are resource specialists with restricted host ranges, yet shifts onto relatively unrelated hosts are common during phylogenetic diversification of parasite lineages and directly observable in real time. The emerging Stockholm Paradigm resolves this paradox: Ecological Fitting (EF)—phenotypic flexibility and phylogenetic conservatism in traits related to resource use, most notably host preference—provides many opportunities for rapid host switching in changing environments, without the evolution of novel host-utilization capabilities. Host shifts via EF fuel the expansion phase of the Oscillation Hypothesis of host range and speciation and, more generally, the generation of novel combinations of interacting species within the Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution. In synergy, an environmental dynamic of Taxon Pulses establishes an episodic context for host and geographical colonization.

@article{levi_accelerated_2015,
	title = {Accelerated phenology of blacklegged ticks under climate warming},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20130556},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0556},
	abstract = {The phenology of tick emergence has important implications for the transmission of tick-borne pathogens. A long lag between the emergence of tick nymphs in spring and larvae in summer should increase transmission of persistent pathogens by allowing infected nymphs to inoculate the population of naive hosts that can subsequently transmit the pathogen to larvae to complete the transmission cycle. In contrast, greater synchrony between nymphs and larvae should facilitate transmission of pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections in hosts. Here, we use 19 years of data on blacklegged ticks attached to small-mammal hosts to quantify the relationship between climate warming and tick phenology. Warmer years through May and August were associated with a nearly three-week advance in the phenology of nymphal and larval ticks relative to colder years, with little evidence of increased synchrony. Warmer Octobers were associated with fewer larvae feeding concurrently with nymphs during the following spring. Projected warming by the 2050s is expected to advance the timing of average nymph and larva activity by 8–11 and 10–14 days, respectively. If these trends continue, climate warming should maintain or increase transmission of persistent pathogens, while it might inhibit pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Levi, Taal and Keesing, Felicia and Oggenfuss, Kelly and Ostfeld, Richard S.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688016},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {20130556},
}

The phenology of tick emergence has important implications for the transmission of tick-borne pathogens. A long lag between the emergence of tick nymphs in spring and larvae in summer should increase transmission of persistent pathogens by allowing infected nymphs to inoculate the population of naive hosts that can subsequently transmit the pathogen to larvae to complete the transmission cycle. In contrast, greater synchrony between nymphs and larvae should facilitate transmission of pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections in hosts. Here, we use 19 years of data on blacklegged ticks attached to small-mammal hosts to quantify the relationship between climate warming and tick phenology. Warmer years through May and August were associated with a nearly three-week advance in the phenology of nymphal and larval ticks relative to colder years, with little evidence of increased synchrony. Warmer Octobers were associated with fewer larvae feeding concurrently with nymphs during the following spring. Projected warming by the 2050s is expected to advance the timing of average nymph and larva activity by 8–11 and 10–14 days, respectively. If these trends continue, climate warming should maintain or increase transmission of persistent pathogens, while it might inhibit pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections.

@article{ma_temperaturemortality_2015,
	title = {The temperature–mortality relationship in {China}: {An} analysis from 66 {Chinese} communities},
	volume = {137},
	issn = {0013-9351},
	shorttitle = {The temperature–mortality relationship in {China}},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935114004319},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2014.11.016},
	abstract = {Previous studies examining temperature–mortality associations in China focused on a single city or a small number of cities. A multi-city study covering different climatic zones is necessary to better understand regional differences in temperature risk on mortality in China. Sixty-six communities from 7 regions across China were included in this study. We first used a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to estimate community-specific effects of temperature on non-accidental mortality during 2006–2011. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimates of community-specific effects. A U-shaped curve was observed between temperature and mortality at the national level in China, indicating both low and high temperatures were associated with increased mortality risk. The overall threshold was at about the 75th percentile of the pooled temperature distribution. The relative risk was 1.61 (95\% CI: 1.48–1.74) for extremely cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature), and 1.21 (95\% CI: 1.10–1.34) for extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature) at lag0–21 days. The temperature–mortality relationship is different for different regions. Compared with north China, south China had a higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and there was a larger cold effect in the more southern parts of China and a more pronounced hot effect in more northern parts. Both cold and hot temperatures increase mortality risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically. Our findings suggest that public health policies for climate change adaptation should be tailored to the local climate conditions.},
	number = {Supplement C},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Environmental Research},
	author = {Ma, Wenjun and Wang, Lijun and Lin, Hualiang and Liu, Tao and Zhang, Yonghui and Rutherford, Shannon and Luo, Yuan and Zeng, Weilin and Zhang, Yewu and Wang, Xiaofeng and Gu, Xin and Chu, Cordia and Xiao, Jianpeng and Zhou, Maigeng},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {72--77},
}

Previous studies examining temperature–mortality associations in China focused on a single city or a small number of cities. A multi-city study covering different climatic zones is necessary to better understand regional differences in temperature risk on mortality in China. Sixty-six communities from 7 regions across China were included in this study. We first used a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to estimate community-specific effects of temperature on non-accidental mortality during 2006–2011. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimates of community-specific effects. A U-shaped curve was observed between temperature and mortality at the national level in China, indicating both low and high temperatures were associated with increased mortality risk. The overall threshold was at about the 75th percentile of the pooled temperature distribution. The relative risk was 1.61 (95% CI: 1.48–1.74) for extremely cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature), and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.10–1.34) for extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature) at lag0–21 days. The temperature–mortality relationship is different for different regions. Compared with north China, south China had a higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and there was a larger cold effect in the more southern parts of China and a more pronounced hot effect in more northern parts. Both cold and hot temperatures increase mortality risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically. Our findings suggest that public health policies for climate change adaptation should be tailored to the local climate conditions.

@article{medone_impact_2015,
	title = {The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of {Chagas} disease: implications for the force of infection},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	shorttitle = {The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of {Chagas} disease},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20130560},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2013.0560},
	abstract = {Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Medone, Paula and Ceccarelli, Soledad and Parham, Paul E. and Figuera, Andreína and Rabinovich, Jorge E.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688019},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {20130560},
}

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.

@article{fann_geographic_2015,
	title = {The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the {United} {States} in 2030},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {1096-2247},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270},
	doi = {10.1080/10962247.2014.996270},
	abstract = {In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1–4°C and 1–5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010\$).Implications: Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1–5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010\$).},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Journal of the Air \& Waste Management Association},
	author = {Fann, Neal and Nolte, Christopher G. and Dolwick, Patrick and Spero, Tanya L. and Brown, Amanda Curry and Phillips, Sharon and Anenberg, Susan},
	month = may,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25947315},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {570--580},
}

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1–4°C and 1–5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).Implications: Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1–5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

@article{nordio_changing_2015,
	title = {Changing patterns of the temperature-mortality association by time and location in the {US}, and implications for climate change},
	volume = {81},
	issn = {0160-4120},
	url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4780576/},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2015.04.009},
	abstract = {The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-years periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature-mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lag 1-5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95\% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27°C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95\% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-hr temperature of 27°C decreased over time from 10.6\% to 0.9\%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.},
	urldate = {2018-01-08},
	journal = {Environment international},
	author = {Nordio, Francesco and Zanobetti, Antonella and Colicino, Elena and Kloog, Itai and Schwartz, Joel},
	month = aug,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25965185},
	pmcid = {PMC4780576},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {80--86},
}

The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-years periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature-mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lag 1-5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27°C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-hr temperature of 27°C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.

@article{ostfeld_climate_2015,
	title = {Climate change and {Ixodes} tick-borne diseases of humans},
	volume = {370},
	copyright = {. © 2015 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.},
	issn = {0962-8436, 1471-2970},
	url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1665/20140051},
	doi = {10.1098/rstb.2014.0051},
	abstract = {The evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. The primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. Both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. For instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpret biologically. On the other hand, although laboratory studies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. Similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. Nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of Ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. The predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. These inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. We urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. In addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1665},
	urldate = {2017-12-11},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
	author = {Ostfeld, Richard S. and Brunner, Jesse L.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	pmid = {25688022},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {20140051},
}

The evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. The primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. Both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. For instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpret biologically. On the other hand, although laboratory studies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. Similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. Nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of Ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. The predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. These inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. We urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. In addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease.

@article{hejazi_21st_2015,
	title = {21st century {United} {States} emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1421675112},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1421675112},
	abstract = {There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-
induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system
processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended
and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.},
	language = {en},
	number = {34},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Hejazi, Mohamad I. and Voisin, Nathalie and Liu, Lu and Bramer, Lisa M. and Fortin, Daniel C. and Hathaway, John E. and Huang, Maoyi and Kyle, Page and Leung, L. Ruby and Li, Hong-Yi and Liu, Ying and Patel, Pralit L. and Pulsipher, Trenton C. and Rice, Jennie S. and Tesfa, Teklu K. and Vernon, Chris R. and Zhou, Yuyu},
	month = aug,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {10635--10640},
}

There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation- induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

@book{nordhaus_question_2015,
	title = {Question of {Balance}: {Weighing} the {Options} on {Global} {Warming} {Policies}, {A}},
	isbn = {978-0-300-20939-6},
	shorttitle = {A question of balance},
	abstract = {As scientific and observational evidence on global warming piles up every day, questions of economic policy in this central environmental topic have taken center stage. But as author and prominent Yale economist William Nordhaus observes, the issues involved in understanding global warming and slowing its harmful effects are complex and cross disciplinary boundaries. For example, ecologists see global warming as a threat to ecosystems, utilities as a debit to their balance sheets, and farmers as a hazard to their livelihoods.
 
In this important work, William Nordhaus integrates the entire spectrum of economic and scientific research to weigh the costs of reducing emissions against the benefits of reducing the long-run damages from global warming. The book offers one of the most extensive analyses of the economic and environmental dynamics of greenhouse-gas emissions and climate change and provides the tools to evaluate alternative approaches to slowing global warming. The author emphasizes the need to establish effective mechanisms, such as carbon taxes, to harness markets and harmonize the efforts of different countries. This book not only will shape discussion of one the world’s most pressing problems but will provide the rationales and methods for achieving widespread agreement on our next best move in alleviating global warming.},
	language = {English},
	author = {Nordhaus, William D},
	year = {2015},
	note = {OCLC: 951132245},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

As scientific and observational evidence on global warming piles up every day, questions of economic policy in this central environmental topic have taken center stage. But as author and prominent Yale economist William Nordhaus observes, the issues involved in understanding global warming and slowing its harmful effects are complex and cross disciplinary boundaries. For example, ecologists see global warming as a threat to ecosystems, utilities as a debit to their balance sheets, and farmers as a hazard to their livelihoods. In this important work, William Nordhaus integrates the entire spectrum of economic and scientific research to weigh the costs of reducing emissions against the benefits of reducing the long-run damages from global warming. The book offers one of the most extensive analyses of the economic and environmental dynamics of greenhouse-gas emissions and climate change and provides the tools to evaluate alternative approaches to slowing global warming. The author emphasizes the need to establish effective mechanisms, such as carbon taxes, to harness markets and harmonize the efforts of different countries. This book not only will shape discussion of one the world’s most pressing problems but will provide the rationales and methods for achieving widespread agreement on our next best move in alleviating global warming.

@article{moore_temperature_2015,
	title = {Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2481},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2481},
	abstract = {Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios1, 2, 3. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation4, 5. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates6. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Moore, Frances C. and Diaz, Delavane B.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {127--131},
}

Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios1, 2, 3. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation4, 5. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates6. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

@article{labriet_worldwide_2015,
	title = {Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling},
	volume = {20},
	issn = {1381-2386, 1573-1596},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7},
	doi = {10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7},
	abstract = {The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator- Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible. To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2017-10-14},
	journal = {Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change},
	author = {Labriet, Maryse and Joshi, Santosh R. and Vielle, Marc and Holden, Philip B. and Edwards, Neil R. and Kanudia, Amit and Loulou, Richard and Babonneau, Frédéric},
	month = oct,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1111--1136},
}

The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator- Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible. To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale.

@article{lemoine_top-down_2015,
	title = {Top-down {Approach} to {Projecting} {Market} {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change}, {A}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2759},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2759},
	abstract = {To evaluate policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, economic models require estimates of how future climate change will affect well-being. So far, nearly all estimates of the economic impacts of future warming have been developed by combining estimates of impacts in individual sectors of the economy1, 2. Recent work has used variation in warming over time and space to produce top-down estimates of how past climate and weather shocks have affected economic output3, 4, 5. Here we propose a statistical framework for converting these top-down estimates of past economic costs of regional warming into projections of the economic cost of future global warming. Combining the latest physical climate models, socioeconomic projections, and economic estimates of past impacts, we find that future warming could raise the expected rate of economic growth in richer countries, reduce the expected rate of economic growth in poorer countries, and increase the variability of growth by increasing the climate’s variability. This study suggests we should rethink the focus on global impacts and the use of deterministic frameworks for modelling impacts and policy.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Lemoine, Derek and Kapnick, Sarah},
	month = aug,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {51--55},
}

To evaluate policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, economic models require estimates of how future climate change will affect well-being. So far, nearly all estimates of the economic impacts of future warming have been developed by combining estimates of impacts in individual sectors of the economy1, 2. Recent work has used variation in warming over time and space to produce top-down estimates of how past climate and weather shocks have affected economic output3, 4, 5. Here we propose a statistical framework for converting these top-down estimates of past economic costs of regional warming into projections of the economic cost of future global warming. Combining the latest physical climate models, socioeconomic projections, and economic estimates of past impacts, we find that future warming could raise the expected rate of economic growth in richer countries, reduce the expected rate of economic growth in poorer countries, and increase the variability of growth by increasing the climate’s variability. This study suggests we should rethink the focus on global impacts and the use of deterministic frameworks for modelling impacts and policy.

@misc{graff_zivin_temperature_2015,
	title = {Temperature and {Human} {Capital} in the {Short}-and {Long}-{Run}},
	shorttitle = {{NBER} {Working} {Paper} 21157},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w21157},
	abstract = {We provide the first estimates of the potential impact of climate change on human capital, focusing on the impacts from both short-run weather and long-run climate. Exploiting the longitudinal structure of the NLSY79 and random fluctuations in weather across interviews, we identify the effect of temperature in models with child-specific fixed effects. We find that short-run changes in temperature lead to statistically significant decreases in cognitive performance on math (but not reading) beyond 26C (78.8F). In contrast, our long-run analysis, which relies upon long-difference and rich cross-sectional models, reveals no statistically significant relationship between climate and human capital. This finding is consistent with the notion that adaptation, particularly compensatory behavior, plays a significant role in limiting the long run impacts from short run weather shocks.},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Graff Zivin, J.S. and Hsiang, S. M. and Neidell, Matthew},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

We provide the first estimates of the potential impact of climate change on human capital, focusing on the impacts from both short-run weather and long-run climate. Exploiting the longitudinal structure of the NLSY79 and random fluctuations in weather across interviews, we identify the effect of temperature in models with child-specific fixed effects. We find that short-run changes in temperature lead to statistically significant decreases in cognitive performance on math (but not reading) beyond 26C (78.8F). In contrast, our long-run analysis, which relies upon long-difference and rich cross-sectional models, reveals no statistically significant relationship between climate and human capital. This finding is consistent with the notion that adaptation, particularly compensatory behavior, plays a significant role in limiting the long run impacts from short run weather shocks.

@book{houser_economic_2015,
	address = {New York},
	title = {Economic risks of climate change: an {American} prospectus},
	abstract = {Quanitifies the economic risks of climate change to the US economy and communicates them to the business sector using a standard risk-assessment approach to future climate change impacts and providing specific, local, actionable data for business and investors in both the private and public sectors. Discusses America's climate future--what is known, what comes next, and US climate projections; assessing the impact of America's changing climate--an evidence-based approach; agriculture, labor, health, crime, energy, and coastal communities; pricing climate risk--moving from impacts to economics, direct costs and benefits, macroeconomic effects, and valuing risk and inequality; unquantified impacts--what would be missed; water, forests, tourism, and national security; and insights for climate-risk management--mitigation and adaptation. Technical appendixes cover physical climate projections; climate impacts; detailed sectoral models; integrated economic analysis; and valuing risk and unequal impacts.},
	publisher = {Columbia University Press},
	author = {Houser, Trevor and Hsiang, Solomon M. and Kopp, Robert E. and Larsen, Kate},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

Quanitifies the economic risks of climate change to the US economy and communicates them to the business sector using a standard risk-assessment approach to future climate change impacts and providing specific, local, actionable data for business and investors in both the private and public sectors. Discusses America's climate future–what is known, what comes next, and US climate projections; assessing the impact of America's changing climate–an evidence-based approach; agriculture, labor, health, crime, energy, and coastal communities; pricing climate risk–moving from impacts to economics, direct costs and benefits, macroeconomic effects, and valuing risk and inequality; unquantified impacts–what would be missed; water, forests, tourism, and national security; and insights for climate-risk management–mitigation and adaptation. Technical appendixes cover physical climate projections; climate impacts; detailed sectoral models; integrated economic analysis; and valuing risk and unequal impacts.

@article{drijfhout_competition_2015,
	title = {Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the {AMOC} in {Earth}’s energy imbalance},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2045-2322},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep14877},
	doi = {10.1038/srep14877},
	abstract = {A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprin
ts in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.},
	urldate = {2017-06-06},
	journal = {Scientific Reports},
	author = {Drijfhout, Sybren},
	month = oct,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {14877},
}

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprin ts in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

@article{dietz_endogenous_2015,
	title = {Endogenous {Growth}, {Convexity} of {Damage} and {Climate} {Risk}: {How} {Nordhaus}' {Framework} {Supports} {Deep} {Cuts} in {Carbon} {Emissions}},
	volume = {125},
	issn = {00130133},
	shorttitle = {Endogenous {Growth}, {Convexity} of {Damage} and {Climate} {Risk}},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ecoj.12188},
	doi = {10.1111/ecoj.12188},
	abstract = {To slow or not to slow’ (Nordhaus, 1991) was the first economic appraisal of greenhouse gas emissions abatement and founded a large literature on a topic of worldwide importance. We offer our assessment of the original article and trace its legacy, in particular Nordhaus's later series of ‘DICE’ models. From this work, many have drawn the conclusion that an efficient global emissions abatement policy comprises modest and modestly increasing controls. We use DICE itself to provide an initial illustration that, if the analysis is extended to take more strongly into account three essential elements of the climate problem – the endogeneity of growth, the convexity of damage and climate risk – optimal policy comprises strong controls.},
	language = {en},
	number = {583},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {The Economic Journal},
	author = {Dietz, Simon and Stern, Nicholas},
	month = mar,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {574--620},
}

To slow or not to slow’ (Nordhaus, 1991) was the first economic appraisal of greenhouse gas emissions abatement and founded a large literature on a topic of worldwide importance. We offer our assessment of the original article and trace its legacy, in particular Nordhaus's later series of ‘DICE’ models. From this work, many have drawn the conclusion that an efficient global emissions abatement policy comprises modest and modestly increasing controls. We use DICE itself to provide an initial illustration that, if the analysis is extended to take more strongly into account three essential elements of the climate problem – the endogeneity of growth, the convexity of damage and climate risk – optimal policy comprises strong controls.

@misc{gillingham_modeling_2015,
	title = {Modeling {Uncertainty} in {Climate} {Change}: {A} {Multi}-{Model} {Comparison}},
	shorttitle = {Discussion {Paper} {No}. 2022},
	url = {http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d20/d2022.pdf [October 2016]},
	abstract = {The economics of climate change	involves a vast	array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the	results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs	(probability density functions) of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.},
	publisher = {Cowles Foundation},
	author = {Gillingham, Kenneth and Nordhaus, William and Anthoff, D. and Blanford, Geoffrey and Bosetti, Valentina and Christensen, P. and McJeon, Haewon C. and Reilly, John and Sztorc, Paul},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs (probability density functions) of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.

@article{giglio_very_2015,
	title = {Very {Long}-{Run} {Discount} {Rates}},
	volume = {130},
	issn = {0033-5533, 1531-4650},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/qje/qju036},
	doi = {10.1093/qje/qju036},
	abstract = {We estimate how households trade off immediate costs and uncertain future benefits that occur in the very long run, 100 or more years away. We exploit a unique feature of housing markets in the United Kingdom and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are temporary, prepaid, and tradable ownership contracts with maturities between 99 and 999 years, while freeholds are perpetual ownership contracts. The price difference between leaseholds and freeholds reflects the present value of perpetual rental income starting at leasehold expiration, and is thus informative about very long-run discount rates. We estimate the price discounts for varying leasehold maturities compared to freeholds and extremely long-run leaseholds via hedonic regressions using proprietary data sets of the universe of transactions in each country. Households discount very long-run cash flows at low rates, assigning high present value to cash flows hundreds of years in the future. For example, 100-year leaseholds are valued at more than 10\% less than otherwise identical freeholds, implying discount rates below 2.6\% for 100-year claims.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-05-23},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Giglio, Stefano and Maggiori, Matteo and Stroebel, Johannes},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {1--53},
}

We estimate how households trade off immediate costs and uncertain future benefits that occur in the very long run, 100 or more years away. We exploit a unique feature of housing markets in the United Kingdom and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are temporary, prepaid, and tradable ownership contracts with maturities between 99 and 999 years, while freeholds are perpetual ownership contracts. The price difference between leaseholds and freeholds reflects the present value of perpetual rental income starting at leasehold expiration, and is thus informative about very long-run discount rates. We estimate the price discounts for varying leasehold maturities compared to freeholds and extremely long-run leaseholds via hedonic regressions using proprietary data sets of the universe of transactions in each country. Households discount very long-run cash flows at low rates, assigning high present value to cash flows hundreds of years in the future. For example, 100-year leaseholds are valued at more than 10% less than otherwise identical freeholds, implying discount rates below 2.6% for 100-year claims.

@article{davis_contribution_2015,
	title = {Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1423558112},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1423558112},
	language = {en},
	number = {19},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Davis, Lucas W. and Gertler, Paul J.},
	month = may,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {5962--5967},
}

@misc{diaz_modeling_2015,
	title = {Modeling {Uncertain} {Climate} {Impacts} and {Adaptation} for the {Integrated} {Assessment} of {Carbon} {Policy}.},
	url = {https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/11061330},
	abstract = {Carbon mitigation policies should be designed to balance the costs of reducing emissions and the benefits of avoided climate change. However, both costs and benefits are challenging to characterize because of pervasive uncertainty and complex inter actions among important physical, natural, and human systems. This dissertation reviews, assesses, and seeks to improve the representation of the benefits in the cost benefit oriented integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for global assessment and climate policy analysis. One prominent measure of these benefits is the social cost of carbon (SCC), a monetary estimate of the climate change damages to society from an additional emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). The opening dissertation research project presents the first in-depth model diagnostic and inter-comparison examination of the three IAMs used to quantify the US Government SCC -- DICE, FUND, and PAGE -- to reveal how each model uniquely determines damages from climate change. This study's diagnostic analysis improves public understanding of the SCC, informs future SCC estimation, and identifies research priorities for climate impacts modeling that will be addressed in the remainder of the dissertation. The subsequent studies focus on climate impacts of sea level rise (SLR). The second dissertation project presents a new model to inform global estimates of coastal impacts, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). CIAM improves the credibility of coastal impact estimates along many analytical and empirical dimensions: geographical scope, spatial resolution, temporal dynamics, and the inclusion of optimal local adaptation, uncertain flooding from storm surge extremes, wetland loss, and the effects of relative SLR. While the CIAM approach informs incremental climate change damage estimates, these are not the only factor in carbon mitigation policy design. Another important consideration is the risk of uncertain and potentially irreversible catastrophes, which have not yet been well incorporated into IAMs. The final project of this dissertation presents a multistage stochastic programming framework for modeling climate catastrophes with endogenous uncertainty, applied to a benchmark IAM. The specific catastrophe considered is the uncertain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), characterized in accordance with recent expert elicitations, empirical results, physical relationships, and economic consequences, as represented with the both the DICE and CIAM coastal damage functions. The stochastic DICE-WAIS model introduced here investigates the optimal policy response to the ice sheet collapse threat.},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	publisher = {Stanford University},
	author = {Diaz, Delavane B.},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

Carbon mitigation policies should be designed to balance the costs of reducing emissions and the benefits of avoided climate change. However, both costs and benefits are challenging to characterize because of pervasive uncertainty and complex inter actions among important physical, natural, and human systems. This dissertation reviews, assesses, and seeks to improve the representation of the benefits in the cost benefit oriented integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for global assessment and climate policy analysis. One prominent measure of these benefits is the social cost of carbon (SCC), a monetary estimate of the climate change damages to society from an additional emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). The opening dissertation research project presents the first in-depth model diagnostic and inter-comparison examination of the three IAMs used to quantify the US Government SCC – DICE, FUND, and PAGE – to reveal how each model uniquely determines damages from climate change. This study's diagnostic analysis improves public understanding of the SCC, informs future SCC estimation, and identifies research priorities for climate impacts modeling that will be addressed in the remainder of the dissertation. The subsequent studies focus on climate impacts of sea level rise (SLR). The second dissertation project presents a new model to inform global estimates of coastal impacts, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). CIAM improves the credibility of coastal impact estimates along many analytical and empirical dimensions: geographical scope, spatial resolution, temporal dynamics, and the inclusion of optimal local adaptation, uncertain flooding from storm surge extremes, wetland loss, and the effects of relative SLR. While the CIAM approach informs incremental climate change damage estimates, these are not the only factor in carbon mitigation policy design. Another important consideration is the risk of uncertain and potentially irreversible catastrophes, which have not yet been well incorporated into IAMs. The final project of this dissertation presents a multistage stochastic programming framework for modeling climate catastrophes with endogenous uncertainty, applied to a benchmark IAM. The specific catastrophe considered is the uncertain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), characterized in accordance with recent expert elicitations, empirical results, physical relationships, and economic consequences, as represented with the both the DICE and CIAM coastal damage functions. The stochastic DICE-WAIS model introduced here investigates the optimal policy response to the ice sheet collapse threat.

@article{dennig_inequality_2015,
	title = {Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1513967112},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1513967112},
	abstract = {Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)—a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)—in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model’s regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon—as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.},
	language = {en},
	number = {52},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Dennig, Francis and Budolfson, Mark B. and Fleurbaey, Marc and Siebert, Asher and Socolow, Robert H.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {15827--15832},
}

Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)—a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)—in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model’s regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon—as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

@misc{daniel_applying_2015,
	title = {Applying {Asset} {Pricing} {Theory} to {Calibrate} the {Price} of {Climate} {Risk}},
	url = {http://www.kentdaniel.net/papers/unpublished/DLW_climate-20150201.pdf},
	abstract = {Pricing greenhouse gas emissions is a risk management problem. It involves making trade-offs between consumption today and unknown and potentially catastrophic damages in the (distant) future. The optimal price is necessarily based on society’s willingness to substitut consumption across time and across uncertain states of nature. A large body of work in macroeconomics and finance has attempted to infer societal preferences using the observed behavior of asset prices, and has concluded that the standard preference specifications are inconsistent with observed asset valuations. This literature has developed a richer set of preferences that are more consistent with asset price behavior. The climate-economy literature by and large has not adopted this richer set of preferences.

In this paper, we explore the implications of these richer preference specifications for the optimal pricing of carbon emissions. We develop a simple discrete-time model with Epstein-Zin utility in which uncertainty about the effect of carbon emissions on global temperature and on eventual damages is gradually resolved over time. We embed a number of features including tail risk, the potential for technological change and backstop technologies. When coupled with the potential for low probability high-impact outcomes, our calibration to historical real interest rates and the equity risk premium suggests a high price for carbon emissions today which is then expected to decline over time. This is in contrast to most modeled carbon price paths, which tend to start low and rise steadily over time.},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	author = {Daniel, K.D. and Litterman, R.B. and Wagner, G.},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

Pricing greenhouse gas emissions is a risk management problem. It involves making trade-offs between consumption today and unknown and potentially catastrophic damages in the (distant) future. The optimal price is necessarily based on society’s willingness to substitut consumption across time and across uncertain states of nature. A large body of work in macroeconomics and finance has attempted to infer societal preferences using the observed behavior of asset prices, and has concluded that the standard preference specifications are inconsistent with observed asset valuations. This literature has developed a richer set of preferences that are more consistent with asset price behavior. The climate-economy literature by and large has not adopted this richer set of preferences. In this paper, we explore the implications of these richer preference specifications for the optimal pricing of carbon emissions. We develop a simple discrete-time model with Epstein-Zin utility in which uncertainty about the effect of carbon emissions on global temperature and on eventual damages is gradually resolved over time. We embed a number of features including tail risk, the potential for technological change and backstop technologies. When coupled with the potential for low probability high-impact outcomes, our calibration to historical real interest rates and the equity risk premium suggests a high price for carbon emissions today which is then expected to decline over time. This is in contrast to most modeled carbon price paths, which tend to start low and rise steadily over time.

@article{cooley_integrated_2015,
	title = {Integrated {Assessment} {Model} for {Helping} the {United} {States} {Sea} {Scallop} ({Placopecten} magellanicus) {Fishery} {Plan} {Ahead} for {Ocean} {Acidification} and {Warming}, {An}},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124145},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0124145},
	abstract = {Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2017-05-17},
	journal = {PLOS ONE},
	author = {Cooley, Sarah R. and Rheuban, Jennie E. and Hart, Deborah R. and Luu, Victoria and Glover, David M. and Hare, Jonathan A. and Doney, Scott C.},
	editor = {Dupont, Sam},
	month = may,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {e0124145},
}

Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.

@misc{fishman_long-term_2015,
	title = {Long-{Term} {Impacts} of {High} {Temperatures} on {Economic} {Productivity}},
	url = {http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/2015WP/FishmanRussCarrillo_October2015.pdf},
	abstract = {High temperature anomalies have recently been shown to have adverse short-term impacts on multiple health and socio-economic outcomes. A well established literature on the impacts of early life stress on life-long human capital accumulation has led us to hypothesize that high temperature anomalies can also have long-term impacts on economic productivity. Using unique data sets on historical weather and the earnings, place and date of birth of all 1.5 million formal employees in Ecuador, we find that women who have experienced a 1°C increase in average temperature while in-utero earn 1.1\%-1.7\% less as adults. The results are highly robust and suggest warming may already have caused adverse long-term economic losses "in the pipeline" that have not been appreciated to date.},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	publisher = {Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University},
	author = {Fishman, R. and Russ, J. and Carrillo, P.},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

High temperature anomalies have recently been shown to have adverse short-term impacts on multiple health and socio-economic outcomes. A well established literature on the impacts of early life stress on life-long human capital accumulation has led us to hypothesize that high temperature anomalies can also have long-term impacts on economic productivity. Using unique data sets on historical weather and the earnings, place and date of birth of all 1.5 million formal employees in Ecuador, we find that women who have experienced a 1°C increase in average temperature while in-utero earn 1.1%-1.7% less as adults. The results are highly robust and suggest warming may already have caused adverse long-term economic losses "in the pipeline" that have not been appreciated to date.

@article{farmer_third_2015,
	title = {Third {Wave} in the {Economics} of {Climate} {Change}, {A}},
	volume = {62},
	issn = {0924-6460, 1573-1502},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10640-015-9965-2},
	doi = {10.1007/s10640-015-9965-2},
	abstract = {Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. Existing bread-and-butter micro- and macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. Four key issues—along with several others—remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches—dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
	author = {Farmer, J. Doyne and Hepburn, Cameron and Mealy, Penny and Teytelboym, Alexander},
	month = oct,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {329--357},
}

Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. Existing bread-and-butter micro- and macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. Four key issues—along with several others—remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches—dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.

@article{burke_global_2015,
	title = {Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production},
	volume = {527},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature15725},
	doi = {10.1038/nature15725},
	abstract = {Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies1, 2, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries3, 4. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature5, while poor countries respond only linearly5, 6. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human–natural systems7, 8 and to anticipating the global impact of climate change9, 10. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change11, 12, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23\% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.},
	number = {7577},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Burke, Marshall and Hsiang, Solomon M. and Miguel, Edward},
	month = oct,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {235--239},
}

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies1, 2, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries3, 4. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature5, while poor countries respond only linearly5, 6. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human–natural systems7, 8 and to anticipating the global impact of climate change9, 10. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change11, 12, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

@article{buhaug_climateconflict_2015,
	title = {Climate–conflict research: some reflections on the way forward},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1757-7799},
	shorttitle = {Climate–conflict research},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.336/abstract},
	doi = {10.1002/wcc.336},
	abstract = {A decade of systematic research on climate change and armed conflict has revealed a number of interesting patterns but few results that are robust across studies. This essay takes stock of the quantitative empirical literature, identifies central limitations, and presents five priorities for future research in the field. While these priorities refer to technical and operational aspects of statistical analysis, their underlying motivation, and objective, is to develop a better and more refined theoretical understanding of possible indirect and conditional connections between climatic changes and violent conflict. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:269–275. doi: 10.1002/wcc.336 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Conflict of interest: The author has declared no conflicts of interest for this article.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-10-23},
	journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},
	author = {Buhaug, Halvard},
	month = may,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {269--275},
}

A decade of systematic research on climate change and armed conflict has revealed a number of interesting patterns but few results that are robust across studies. This essay takes stock of the quantitative empirical literature, identifies central limitations, and presents five priorities for future research in the field. While these priorities refer to technical and operational aspects of statistical analysis, their underlying motivation, and objective, is to develop a better and more refined theoretical understanding of possible indirect and conditional connections between climatic changes and violent conflict. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:269–275. doi: 10.1002/wcc.336 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Conflict of interest: The author has declared no conflicts of interest for this article.

@article{bosetti_sensitivity_2015,
	title = {Sensitivity to energy technology costs: {A} multi-model comparison analysis},
	volume = {80},
	issn = {03014215},
	shorttitle = {Sensitivity to energy technology costs},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421514006776},
	doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.012},
	abstract = {In the present paper we use the output of multiple expert elicitation surveys on the future cost of key low-carbon technologies and use it as input of three Integrated Assessment models, GCAM, MARKAL\_US and WITCH. By means of a large set of simulations we aim to assess the implications of these subjective distributions of technological costs over key model outputs. We are able to detect what sources of technology uncertainty are more influential, how this differs across models, and whether and how results are affected by the time horizon, the metric considered or the stringency of the climate policy. In unconstrained emission scenarios, within the range of future technology performances considered in the present analysis, the cost of nuclear energy is shown to dominate all others in affecting future emissions. Climate-constrained scenarios, stress the relevance, in addition to that of nuclear energy, of biofuels, as they represent the main source of decarbonization of the transportation sector and bioenergy, since the latter can be coupled with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to produce negative emissions.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-05-17},
	journal = {Energy Policy},
	author = {Bosetti, Valentina and Marangoni, Giacomo and Borgonovo, Emanuele and Diaz Anadon, Laura and Barron, Robert and McJeon, Haewon C. and Politis, Savvas and Friley, Paul},
	month = may,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {244--263},
}

In the present paper we use the output of multiple expert elicitation surveys on the future cost of key low-carbon technologies and use it as input of three Integrated Assessment models, GCAM, MARKAL_US and WITCH. By means of a large set of simulations we aim to assess the implications of these subjective distributions of technological costs over key model outputs. We are able to detect what sources of technology uncertainty are more influential, how this differs across models, and whether and how results are affected by the time horizon, the metric considered or the stringency of the climate policy. In unconstrained emission scenarios, within the range of future technology performances considered in the present analysis, the cost of nuclear energy is shown to dominate all others in affecting future emissions. Climate-constrained scenarios, stress the relevance, in addition to that of nuclear energy, of biofuels, as they represent the main source of decarbonization of the transportation sector and bioenergy, since the latter can be coupled with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to produce negative emissions.

@article{bloch-johnson_feedback_2015,
	title = {Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {00948276},
	shorttitle = {Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL064240},
	doi = {10.1002/2015GL064240},
	language = {en},
	number = {12},
	urldate = {2017-05-17},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Bloch-Johnson, Jonah and Pierrehumbert, Raymond T. and Abbot, Dorian S.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {4973--4980},
}

@article{barro_environmental_2015,
	title = {Environmental {Protection}, {Rare} {Disasters} and {Discount} {Rates}},
	volume = {82},
	issn = {00130427},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ecca.12117},
	doi = {10.1111/ecca.12117},
	abstract = {The Stern Review's evaluation of environmental protection stresses low discount rates and uncertainty about environmental effects. An appropriate model for analysing this uncertainty and the associated discount rates requires sufficient risk aversion and fat-tailed uncertainty to account for the observed equity premium. Calibrations based on Epstein–Zin preferences and existing analyses of rare macroeconomic disasters suggest that optimal environmental investment can be a significant share of GDP even with reasonable rates of time preference. Optimal environmental investment increases with risk aversion and the probability and typical size of environmental disasters, but decreases with uncertainty about policy effectiveness.},
	language = {en},
	number = {325},
	urldate = {2017-08-10},
	journal = {Economica},
	author = {Barro, Robert J.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {1--23},
}

The Stern Review's evaluation of environmental protection stresses low discount rates and uncertainty about environmental effects. An appropriate model for analysing this uncertainty and the associated discount rates requires sufficient risk aversion and fat-tailed uncertainty to account for the observed equity premium. Calibrations based on Epstein–Zin preferences and existing analyses of rare macroeconomic disasters suggest that optimal environmental investment can be a significant share of GDP even with reasonable rates of time preference. Optimal environmental investment increases with risk aversion and the probability and typical size of environmental disasters, but decreases with uncertainty about policy effectiveness.

@techreport{pindyck_use_2015,
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	title = {Use and {Misuse} of {Models} for {Climate} {Policy}, {The}},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w21097.pdf},
	abstract = {In recent articles, I have argued that integrated assessment models (IAMs) have flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policy-makers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy. But some have claimed that we need some kind of model, and that IAMs can be structured and used in ways that correct for their shortcomings. For example, it has been argued that although we know little or nothing about key relationships in the model, we can get around this problem by attaching probability distributions to various parameters and then simulating the model using Monte Carlo methods. I argue that this would buy us nothing, and that a simpler and more transparent approach to the design of climate change policy is preferable. I briefly outline what that approach would look like.},
	language = {en},
	number = {w21097},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Pindyck, Robert},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	doi = {10.3386/w21097},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
}

In recent articles, I have argued that integrated assessment models (IAMs) have flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policy-makers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy. But some have claimed that we need some kind of model, and that IAMs can be structured and used in ways that correct for their shortcomings. For example, it has been argued that although we know little or nothing about key relationships in the model, we can get around this problem by attaching probability distributions to various parameters and then simulating the model using Monte Carlo methods. I argue that this would buy us nothing, and that a simpler and more transparent approach to the design of climate change policy is preferable. I briefly outline what that approach would look like.

@article{tack_effect_2015,
	title = {Effect of warming temperatures on {US} wheat yields},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1415181112},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1415181112},
	language = {en},
	number = {22},
	urldate = {2017-07-30},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Tack, Jesse and Barkley, Andrew and Nalley, Lawton Lanier},
	month = jun,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {6931--6936},
}

@article{weitzman_book_2015,
	title = {Book {Review}--{A} {Review} of {William} {Nordhaus}' {The} {Climate} {Casino}: {Risk}, {Uncertainty}, and {Economics} for a {Warming} {World}},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1750-6816, 1750-6824},
	shorttitle = {Book {Review}--{A} {Review} of {William} {Nordhaus}' {The} {Climate} {Casino}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/reep/reu019},
	doi = {10.1093/reep/reu019},
	abstract = {We all know the basics of climate change. Human activity has greatly increased the atmospheric stock of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the most important of which, by far, is carbon dioxide (CO2). Once CO2 shows up in the atmosphere, it stays there for a long time, on the order of centuries to millennia. The additional CO2 in the atmosphere is due primarily to the massive burning of fossil fuels that has accompanied the industrial revolution, and it continues to increase at an ever accelerating pace. We are currently at atmospheric concentrations of CO2 that were last seen over 3 million years ago. Scientists generally agree that increases in atmospheric CO2 are extremely likely to lead to increased global warming and changes in climate (as well as other effects, such as significant alterations of ocean chemistry). The greater the CO2 increase, the greater and more uncertain the likely warming, climate, and environmental response. If we continue emitting CO2 at the current (or even a modestly reduced) pace, within a century or so we will likely attain atmospheric CO2 levels that were last seen about 50 million years ago, when the mean global surface temperature was some 5C warmer than today. Thus, by increasing atmospheric CO2 we are performing a human-induced fast-paced experiment on a global scale that is extraordinarily far outside the range of “normal” experience, even by geological standards. 

How, by how much, and how fast should we react to this unfolding global warming scenario? Attempts to answer such questions push the discussion into the realm of the economics of climate change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-09-19},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	author = {Weitzman, M. L.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {145--156},
}

We all know the basics of climate change. Human activity has greatly increased the atmospheric stock of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the most important of which, by far, is carbon dioxide (CO2). Once CO2 shows up in the atmosphere, it stays there for a long time, on the order of centuries to millennia. The additional CO2 in the atmosphere is due primarily to the massive burning of fossil fuels that has accompanied the industrial revolution, and it continues to increase at an ever accelerating pace. We are currently at atmospheric concentrations of CO2 that were last seen over 3 million years ago. Scientists generally agree that increases in atmospheric CO2 are extremely likely to lead to increased global warming and changes in climate (as well as other effects, such as significant alterations of ocean chemistry). The greater the CO2 increase, the greater and more uncertain the likely warming, climate, and environmental response. If we continue emitting CO2 at the current (or even a modestly reduced) pace, within a century or so we will likely attain atmospheric CO2 levels that were last seen about 50 million years ago, when the mean global surface temperature was some 5C warmer than today. Thus, by increasing atmospheric CO2 we are performing a human-induced fast-paced experiment on a global scale that is extraordinarily far outside the range of “normal” experience, even by geological standards. How, by how much, and how fast should we react to this unfolding global warming scenario? Attempts to answer such questions push the discussion into the realm of the economics of climate change.

@misc{noauthor_regulatory_2015,
	title = {Regulatory {Impact} {Analysis} for the {Clean} {Power} {Plan} {Final} {Rule}},
	url = {https://www3.epa.gov/ttnecas1/docs/ria/utilities_ria_final-clean-power-plan-existing-units_2015-08.pdf},
	urldate = {2017-06-10},
	publisher = {U.S. Environmental Protection Agency},
	month = oct,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

@misc{noauthor_response_2015,
	title = {Response to {Comments}: {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon} for {Regulatory} {Impact} {Analysis} {Under} {Executive} {Order} 12866},
	url = {https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/scc-response-to-comments-final-july-2015.pdf},
	publisher = {Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

@article{salehyan_climate_2014,
	series = {Special {Issue}: {Climate} {Change} and {Conflict}},
	title = {Climate change and conflict: {Making} sense of disparate findings},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0962-6298},
	shorttitle = {Climate change and conflict},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629814000997},
	doi = {10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.10.004},
	abstract = {This introduction to the special issues starts with a general overview of the literature. The relationship between climate, climate change, and conflict has been empirically tested in a wide variety of studies, but the literature has yet to converge on a commonly accepted set of results. This is mainly due to poor conceptualization of research designs and empirical measurements. Data are often collected at different temporal, geographic, and social scales. In addition, “climate” and “conflict” are rather elusive concepts and scholars have utilized different measures of each. The choice of measures and empirical tests is not a trivial one, but reflects different theoretical frameworks for understanding environmental influences on conflict. Therefore, results from different analyses are often not commensurable with one another and readers should be wary of broad, sweeping characterizations of the literature. The individual contributions to the special issue are also discussed. Articles herein focus on different geographic regions, temporal periods, and levels of conflict, adding additional layers of complexity to our understanding of the climate/conflict nexus.},
	urldate = {2018-10-09},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {Salehyan, Idean},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {Climate change, Conflict, Measurement, War, Weather},
	pages = {1--5},
}

This introduction to the special issues starts with a general overview of the literature. The relationship between climate, climate change, and conflict has been empirically tested in a wide variety of studies, but the literature has yet to converge on a commonly accepted set of results. This is mainly due to poor conceptualization of research designs and empirical measurements. Data are often collected at different temporal, geographic, and social scales. In addition, “climate” and “conflict” are rather elusive concepts and scholars have utilized different measures of each. The choice of measures and empirical tests is not a trivial one, but reflects different theoretical frameworks for understanding environmental influences on conflict. Therefore, results from different analyses are often not commensurable with one another and readers should be wary of broad, sweeping characterizations of the literature. The individual contributions to the special issue are also discussed. Articles herein focus on different geographic regions, temporal periods, and levels of conflict, adding additional layers of complexity to our understanding of the climate/conflict nexus.

@article{buhaug_one_2014,
	title = {One effect to rule them all? {A} comment on climate and conflict},
	volume = {127},
	shorttitle = {One effect to rule them all?},
	number = {3-4},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Buhaug, Halvard and Nordkvelle, Jonas and Bernauer, Thomas and Böhmelt, Tobias and Brzoska, Michael and Busby, Joshua W. and Ciccone, Antonio and Fjelde, Hanne and Gartzke, Erik and Gleditsch, Nils Petter},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {391--397},
}

@article{hsiang_reconciling_2014,
	title = {Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to {Buhaug} et al.},
	volume = {127},
	shorttitle = {Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses},
	number = {3-4},
	journal = {Climatic change},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Burke, Marshall and Miguel, Edward},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {399--405},
}

@article{ember_rain_2014,
	title = {Rain and raids revisited: disaggregating ethnic group livestock raiding in the {Ethiopian}-{Kenyan} border region},
	volume = {16},
	shorttitle = {Rain and raids revisited},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Civil Wars},
	author = {Ember, Carol R. and Skoggard, Ian and Adem, Teferi Abate and Faas, A. J.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {300--327},
}

@article{wischnath_rice_2014,
	title = {Rice or riots: {On} food production and conflict severity across {India}},
	volume = {43},
	shorttitle = {Rice or riots},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {Wischnath, Gerdis and Buhaug, Halvard},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {6--15},
}

@article{wischnath_climate_2014,
	title = {On climate variability and civil war in {Asia}},
	volume = {122},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Wischnath, Gerdis and Buhaug, Halvard},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {709--721},
}

@article{von_uexkull_sustained_2014,
	title = {Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in {Sub}-{Saharan} {Africa}},
	volume = {43},
	url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-243074},
	abstract = {With climate change projections indicating a likely future increase in extreme weather phenomena, it is an urgent matter to assess the effect of drought on civil conflict. However, studies of this  ...},
	language = {eng},
	number = {SI},
	urldate = {2018-10-07},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {von Uexküll, Nina},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {16--26},
}

With climate change projections indicating a likely future increase in extreme weather phenomena, it is an urgent matter to assess the effect of drought on civil conflict. However, studies of this ...

@article{salehyan_climate_2014-1,
	title = {Climate shocks and political violence},
	volume = {28},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Salehyan, Idean and Hendrix, Cullen S.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {239--250},
}

@article{ranson_crime_2014,
	title = {Crime, weather, and climate change},
	volume = {67},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of environmental economics and management},
	author = {Ranson, Matthew},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {274--302},
}

@article{oloughlin_effects_2014,
	title = {Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-{Saharan} {Africa}, 1980–2012},
	volume = {111},
	number = {47},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {O’Loughlin, John and Linke, Andrew M. and Witmer, Frank DW},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {16712--16717},
}

@article{maystadt_local_2014,
	title = {Local warming and violent conflict in {North} and {South} {Sudan}},
	volume = {15},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Geography},
	author = {Maystadt, Jean-François and Calderone, Margherita and You, Liangzhi},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {649--671},
}

@article{maystadt_extreme_2014,
	title = {Extreme weather and civil war: does drought fuel conflict in {Somalia} through livestock price shocks?},
	volume = {96},
	shorttitle = {Extreme weather and civil war},
	number = {4},
	journal = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics},
	author = {Maystadt, Jean-François and Ecker, Olivier},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {1157--1182},
}

@article{landis_temperature_2014,
	title = {Temperature seasonality and violent conflict: {The} inconsistencies of a warming planet},
	volume = {51},
	shorttitle = {Temperature seasonality and violent conflict},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Landis, Steven T.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {603--618},
}

@article{kung_can_2014,
	title = {Can cultural norms reduce conflicts? {Confucianism} and peasant rebellions in {Qing} {China}},
	volume = {111},
	shorttitle = {Can cultural norms reduce conflicts?},
	journal = {Journal of Development Economics},
	author = {Kung, James Kai-sing and Ma, Chicheng},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {132--149},
}

@article{hsiang_reconciling_2014,
	title = {Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in {Africa}},
	volume = {111},
	number = {6},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Meng, Kyle C.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {2100--2103},
}

@article{gunasekara_water_2014,
	title = {Water conflict risk due to water resource availability and unequal distribution},
	volume = {28},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Water resources management},
	author = {Gunasekara, N. K. and Kazama, S. and Yamazaki, D. and Oki, T.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {169--184},
}

@article{devlin_trends_2014,
	series = {Special {Issue}: {Climate} {Change} and {Conflict}},
	title = {Trends and triggers redux: {Climate} change, rainfall, and interstate conflict},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0962-6298},
	shorttitle = {Trends and triggers redux},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629814000572},
	doi = {10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.07.001},
	abstract = {Given freshwater is crucial to sustaining life and forecasted to decline in relative abundance under most climate change scenarios, there is concern changing precipitation patterns will be a cause of future interstate conflict. In theorizing the impact of climate change for interstate conflict, we distinguish between trends (long-term means) that may affect the baseline probability of conflict, and triggers (short-term deviations) that may affect the probability of conflict in the short run. We jointly model the effects of mean precipitation scarcity and variability (trends) and year-to-year changes in precipitation (triggers) on militarized interstate disputes between states. We find higher long-run variability in precipitation and lower mean levels of precipitation in dyads are associated with the outbreak of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Contra neo-Malthusian expectations, however, we find joint precipitation scarcity – defined as both countries experiencing below mean rainfall in the same year – has a conflict-dampening effect. These findings push the literature in a direction that more closely aligns our modeling of human impacts with our understanding of the physical impacts of climate change.},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {Devlin, Colleen and Hendrix, Cullen S.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {Bargaining, Climate change, Conflict, Precipitation, River basins, War, Water},
	pages = {27--39},
}

Given freshwater is crucial to sustaining life and forecasted to decline in relative abundance under most climate change scenarios, there is concern changing precipitation patterns will be a cause of future interstate conflict. In theorizing the impact of climate change for interstate conflict, we distinguish between trends (long-term means) that may affect the baseline probability of conflict, and triggers (short-term deviations) that may affect the probability of conflict in the short run. We jointly model the effects of mean precipitation scarcity and variability (trends) and year-to-year changes in precipitation (triggers) on militarized interstate disputes between states. We find higher long-run variability in precipitation and lower mean levels of precipitation in dyads are associated with the outbreak of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Contra neo-Malthusian expectations, however, we find joint precipitation scarcity – defined as both countries experiencing below mean rainfall in the same year – has a conflict-dampening effect. These findings push the literature in a direction that more closely aligns our modeling of human impacts with our understanding of the physical impacts of climate change.

@article{couttenier_drought_2014,
	title = {Drought and {Civil} {War} {In} {Sub}-{Saharan} {Africa}*},
	volume = {124},
	copyright = {© 2013 The Author(s). The Economic Journal © 2013 Royal Economic Society},
	issn = {1468-0297},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecoj.12042},
	doi = {10.1111/ecoj.12042},
	abstract = {We explore the relationship between drought and civil war. We show that the link between rainfall, temperature and civil war found in the literature may be driven by aggregate shocks (such as global climate) that were not accounted for. A standard differences-in-differences specification relying only on within country variation reveals a much weaker and insignificant link between weather variables and civil war. To increase statistical power, we propose a country-specific measure of drought that describes social exposure to water stress in a more efficient way than rainfall and temperature. We continue to find a weak positive link between drought and civil war.},
	language = {en},
	number = {575},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {The Economic Journal},
	author = {Couttenier, Mathieu and Soubeyran, Raphael},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {201--244},
}

We explore the relationship between drought and civil war. We show that the link between rainfall, temperature and civil war found in the literature may be driven by aggregate shocks (such as global climate) that were not accounted for. A standard differences-in-differences specification relying only on within country variation reveals a much weaker and insignificant link between weather variables and civil war. To increase statistical power, we propose a country-specific measure of drought that describes social exposure to water stress in a more efficient way than rainfall and temperature. We continue to find a weak positive link between drought and civil war.

@article{bohmelt_demand_2014,
	title = {Demand, supply, and restraint: determinants of domestic water conflict and cooperation},
	volume = {29},
	shorttitle = {Demand, supply, and restraint},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Böhmelt, Tobias and Bernauer, Thomas and Buhaug, Halvard and Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Tribaldos, Theresa and Wischnath, Gerdis},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {337--348},
}

@misc{ciscar_climate_2014,
	title = {Climate impacts in {Europe} - {The} {JRC} {PESETA} {II} project},
	url = {http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=7181},
	abstract = {The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten categories: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts (from eight of the impact categories) into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). If the 2080s climate would happen today and without public adaptation, the EU household welfare losses would amount to around €190 billion, almost 2\% of EU GDP. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall EU damages are estimated to be due to additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a 2°C world would reduce climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2\% of GDP).},
	publisher = {: Publications Office of the European Union},
	author = {Ciscar, J.-C. and Feyen, L. and Soria,, A. and Lavalle,, C. and Raes, F. and Perry, M. and Ibarreta, D.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Europe, IAM: Yes, Issue, Valuation: Yes},
}

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten categories: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts (from eight of the impact categories) into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). If the 2080s climate would happen today and without public adaptation, the EU household welfare losses would amount to around €190 billion, almost 2% of EU GDP. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall EU damages are estimated to be due to additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a 2°C world would reduce climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2% of GDP).

@article{warszawski_inter-sectoral_2014,
	title = {Inter-{Sectoral} {Impact} {Model} {Intercomparison} {Project} ({ISI}–{MIP}): {Project} framework, {The}},
	volume = {111},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	shorttitle = {The {Inter}-{Sectoral} {Impact} {Model} {Intercomparison} {Project} ({ISI}–{MIP})},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1312330110},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1312330110},
	abstract = {The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up.},
	language = {en},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2017-07-31},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Warszawski, Lila and Frieler, Katja and Huber, Veronika and Piontek, Franziska and Serdeczny, Olivia and Schewe, Jacob},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Issue, Method: Process-based, Sector: Other},
	pages = {3228--3232},
}

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up.

@article{waldhoff_marginal_2014,
	title = {Marginal {Damage} {Costs} of {Different} {Greenhouse} {Gases}: {An} {Application} of {FUND}, {The}},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1864-6042},
	shorttitle = {The {Marginal} {Damage} {Costs} of {Different} {Greenhouse} {Gases}},
	url = {http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2014-31},
	doi = {10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2014-31},
	abstract = {The authors use FUND 3.9 to estimate the social cost of four greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride—with sensitivity tests for carbon dioxide fertilization, terrestrial feedbacks, climate sensitivity, discounting, equity weighting, and socioeconomic and emissions assumptions. They also estimate the global damage potential for each gas—the ratio of the social cost of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas to the social cost of carbon dioxide. For all gases, they find the social costs and damage potentials sensitive to alternative assumptions. The global damage potentials are compared to global warming potentials (GWPs), a key metric used to compare gases. The authors find that global damage potentials are higher than GWPs in nearly all sensitivities. This finding suggests that previous papers using GWPs may be underestimating the relative importance of reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions from a climate damage perspective. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of results to carbon dioxide fertilization, which notably reduces the social cost of carbon dioxide, but only has a small effect on the other gases. As a result, the global damage potentials for methane and nitrous oxide are much higher with carbon dioxide fertilization included, and higher than many previous estimates.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2014-31},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal},
	author = {Waldhoff, Stephanie and Anthoff, David and Rose, Steven and Tol, Richard S. J.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Issue, Method: Process-based, Sector: SCC Review or Discussion, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {1},
}

The authors use FUND 3.9 to estimate the social cost of four greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride—with sensitivity tests for carbon dioxide fertilization, terrestrial feedbacks, climate sensitivity, discounting, equity weighting, and socioeconomic and emissions assumptions. They also estimate the global damage potential for each gas—the ratio of the social cost of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas to the social cost of carbon dioxide. For all gases, they find the social costs and damage potentials sensitive to alternative assumptions. The global damage potentials are compared to global warming potentials (GWPs), a key metric used to compare gases. The authors find that global damage potentials are higher than GWPs in nearly all sensitivities. This finding suggests that previous papers using GWPs may be underestimating the relative importance of reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions from a climate damage perspective. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of results to carbon dioxide fertilization, which notably reduces the social cost of carbon dioxide, but only has a small effect on the other gases. As a result, the global damage potentials for methane and nitrous oxide are much higher with carbon dioxide fertilization included, and higher than many previous estimates.

@book{stehfest_integrated_2014,
	address = {The Hague},
	title = {Integrated assessment of global environmental change with {IMAGE} 3.0: model description and policy applications},
	isbn = {978-94-91506-71-0},
	shorttitle = {Integrated assessment of global environmental change with {IMAGE} 3.0},
	abstract = {Describes the use of IMAGE 3.0 (the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) \& its applications for measuring climate change, land-use change, air pollution, biodiversity loss, \& water scarcity},
	language = {English},
	publisher = {PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency},
	author = {Stehfest, E and {Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving}},
	year = {2014},
	note = {OCLC: 884831253},
	keywords = {CK, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Issue, Sector: Climate Science, Unclear},
}

Describes the use of IMAGE 3.0 (the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) & its applications for measuring climate change, land-use change, air pollution, biodiversity loss, & water scarcity

@article{challinor_meta-analysis_2014,
	title = {Meta-analysis of {Crop} {Yield} {Under} {Climate} {Change} and {Adaptation}, {A}},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2153},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2153},
	abstract = {Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society1, 2. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses3 have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7–15\%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Challinor, A. J. and Watson, J. and Lobell, D. B. and Howden, S. M. and Smith, D. R. and Chhetri, N.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Global, Method: Meta-Analysis, Sector: Adaptation, Sector: Agriculture, Tags Edited},
	pages = {287--291},
}

Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society1, 2. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses3 have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7–15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.

@article{brooks_updated_2014,
	title = {An updated biodiversity nonuse value function for use in climate change integrated assessment models},
	volume = {105},
	issn = {0921-8009},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914001955},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.06.015},
	journal = {Ecological Economics},
	author = {Brooks, Wesley R. and Newbold, Stephen C.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {342--349},
}

@article{staddon_climate_2014,
	title = {Climate warming will not decrease winter mortality},
	volume = {4},
	copyright = {2014 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2121},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2121},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Recent reports suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to decrease winter mortality in temperature countries as winters warm. Research now finds that the link between winter temperatures and excess winter deaths in England and Wales, over the period 1951–2011, is significant only until the mid 1970s, other factors explaining any variation in excess winter mortality since then.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {En},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Staddon, Philip L. and Montgomery, Hugh E. and Depledge, Michael H.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {190},
}

\textlessp\textgreaterRecent reports suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to decrease winter mortality in temperature countries as winters warm. Research now finds that the link between winter temperatures and excess winter deaths in England and Wales, over the period 1951–2011, is significant only until the mid 1970s, other factors explaining any variation in excess winter mortality since then.\textless/p\textgreater

@article{vardoulakis_comparative_2014,
	title = {Comparative {Assessment} of the {Effects} of {Climate} {Change} on {Heat}- and {Cold}-{Related} {Mortality} in the {United} {Kingdom} and {Australia}},
	volume = {122},
	url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4256046/},
	doi = {10.1289/ehp.1307524},
	abstract = {Background: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change.Objectives: We ...},
	language = {en},
	number = {12},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
	author = {Vardoulakis, Sotiris and Dear, Keith and Hajat, Shakoor and Heaviside, Clare and Eggen, Bernd and McMichael, Anthony J.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2014},
	pmid = {25222967},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {1285},
}

Background: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change.Objectives: We ...

@article{guo_global_2014,
	title = {Global {Variation} in the {Effects} of {Ambient} {Temperature} on {Mortality}: {A} {Systematic} {Evaluation}},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1044-3983},
	shorttitle = {Global {Variation} in the {Effects} of {Ambient} {Temperature} on {Mortality}},
	url = {https://insights.ovid.com/pubmed?pmid=25166878},
	doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000165},
	abstract = {Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.},
	language = {ENGLISH},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2017-12-04},
	journal = {Epidemiology},
	author = {Guo, Yuming and Gasparrini, Antonio and Armstrong, Ben and Li, Shanshan and Tawatsupa, Benjawan and Tobias, Aurelio and Lavigne, Eric and Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio and Leone, Michela and Pan, Xiaochuan and Tong, Shilu and Tian, Linwei and Kim, Ho and Hashizume, Masahiro and Honda, Yasushi and Guo, Yue-liang Leon and Wu, Chang-fu and Punnasiri, Kornwipa and Yi, Seung-muk and Michelozzi, Paola and Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento and Williams, Gail},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	pmid = {00001648-201411000-00001},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {781--789},
}

Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.

@article{hajat_climate_2014,
	title = {Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the {UK} during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s},
	volume = {68},
	copyright = {Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions},
	issn = {0143-005X, 1470-2738},
	shorttitle = {Climate change effects on human health},
	url = {http://jech.bmj.com/content/68/7/641},
	doi = {10.1136/jech-2013-202449},
	abstract = {{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Background{\textless}/h3{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Methods{\textless}/h3{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Results{\textless}/h3{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257\% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2\% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Conclusions{\textless}/h3{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {J Epidemiol Community Health},
	author = {Hajat, Shakoor and Vardoulakis, Sotiris and Heaviside, Clare and Eggen, Bernd},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	pmid = {24493740},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {641--648},
}

\textlessh3\textgreaterBackground\textless/h3\textgreater \textlessp\textgreaterThe most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere.\textless/p\textgreater\textlessh3\textgreaterMethods\textless/h3\textgreater \textlessp\textgreaterTime-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled.\textless/p\textgreater\textlessh3\textgreaterResults\textless/h3\textgreater \textlessp\textgreaterA significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing.\textless/p\textgreater\textlessh3\textgreaterConclusions\textless/h3\textgreater \textlessp\textgreaterHealth protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.\textless/p\textgreater

@article{honda_heat-related_2014,
	title = {Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection},
	volume = {19},
	copyright = {2013 The Japanese Society for Hygiene},
	issn = {1347-4715},
	url = {https://environhealthprevmed.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1007/s12199-013-0354-6},
	doi = {10.1007/s12199-013-0354-6},
	abstract = {We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model. We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model 2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65+-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature–mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15 days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961–1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the “counterfactual method” to evaluate the climate change impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0 \% adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100 \% adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50 \% adaptation. We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050. Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model.},
	language = {En},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine},
	author = {Honda, Yasushi and Kondo, Masahide and McGregor, Glenn and Kim, Ho and Guo, Yue-Leon and Hijioka, Yasuaki and Yoshikawa, Minoru and Oka, Kazutaka and Takano, Saneyuki and Hales, Simon and Kovats, R. Sari},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {56},
}

We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model. We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model 2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65+-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature–mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15 days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961–1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the “counterfactual method” to evaluate the climate change impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0 % adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100 % adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50 % adaptation. We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050. Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model.

@article{ma_temperature-related_2014,
	series = {Linking {Exposure} and {Health} in {Environmental} {Public} {Health} {Tracking}},
	title = {Temperature-related mortality in 17 large {Chinese} cities: {How} heat and cold affect mortality in {China}},
	volume = {134},
	issn = {0013-9351},
	shorttitle = {Temperature-related mortality in 17 large {Chinese} cities},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935114002382},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2014.07.007},
	abstract = {Few multicity studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of cold and hot temperatures in China. We aimed to examine the relationship between temperature and daily mortality in 17 large Chinese cities. We first calculated city-specific effect of temperature using time-series regression models combined with distributed lag nonlinear models; then we pooled the city-specific estimates with the Bayesian hierarchical models. The cold effects lasted longer than the hot effects. For the cold effects, a 1°C decrease from the 25th to 1st percentiles of temperature over lags 0–14 days was associated with increases of 1.69\% [95\% posterior intervals (PI): 1.01\%, 2.36\%], 2.49\% (95\% PI: 1.53\%, 3.46\%) and 1.60\% (95\% PI: 0.32\%, 2.87\%) in total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. For the hot effects, a 1°C increase from the 75th to 99th percentiles of temperature was associated with corresponding increases of 2.83\% (95\% PI: 1.42\%, 4.24\%), 3.02\% (95\% PI: 1.33\%, 4.71\%) and 4.64\% (95\% PI: 1.96\%, 7.31\%). The latitudes, number of air conditioning per household and disposable income per capita were significant modifiers for cold effects; the proportion of the elderly was a significant modifier for hot effects. This largest epidemiological study of temperature to date in China suggested that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased mortality. Our findings may have important implications for the public health policies in China.},
	number = {Supplement C},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Environmental Research},
	author = {Ma, Wenjuan and Chen, Renjie and Kan, Haidong},
	month = oct,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {127--133},
}

Few multicity studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of cold and hot temperatures in China. We aimed to examine the relationship between temperature and daily mortality in 17 large Chinese cities. We first calculated city-specific effect of temperature using time-series regression models combined with distributed lag nonlinear models; then we pooled the city-specific estimates with the Bayesian hierarchical models. The cold effects lasted longer than the hot effects. For the cold effects, a 1°C decrease from the 25th to 1st percentiles of temperature over lags 0–14 days was associated with increases of 1.69% [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.01%, 2.36%], 2.49% (95% PI: 1.53%, 3.46%) and 1.60% (95% PI: 0.32%, 2.87%) in total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. For the hot effects, a 1°C increase from the 75th to 99th percentiles of temperature was associated with corresponding increases of 2.83% (95% PI: 1.42%, 4.24%), 3.02% (95% PI: 1.33%, 4.71%) and 4.64% (95% PI: 1.96%, 7.31%). The latitudes, number of air conditioning per household and disposable income per capita were significant modifiers for cold effects; the proportion of the elderly was a significant modifier for hot effects. This largest epidemiological study of temperature to date in China suggested that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased mortality. Our findings may have important implications for the public health policies in China.

@article{oloughlin_effects_2014,
	title = {Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-{Saharan} {Africa}, 1980–2012},
	volume = {111},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/111/47/16712},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1411899111},
	abstract = {Ongoing debates in the academic community and in the public policy arena continue without clear resolution about the significance of global climate change for the risk of increased conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is generally agreed to be the region most vulnerable to such climate impacts. Using a large database of conflict events and detailed climatological data covering the period 1980–2012, we apply a multilevel modeling technique that allows for a more nuanced understanding of a climate–conflict link than has been seen heretofore. In the aggregate, high temperature extremes are associated with more conflict; however, different types of conflict and different subregions do not show consistent relationship with temperature deviations. Precipitation deviations, both high and low, are generally not significant. The location and timing of violence are influenced less by climate anomalies (temperature or precipitation variations from normal) than by key political, economic, and geographic factors. We find important distinctions in the relationship between temperature extremes and conflict by using multiple methods of analysis and by exploiting our time-series cross-sectional dataset for disaggregated analyses.},
	language = {en},
	number = {47},
	urldate = {2017-10-23},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {O’Loughlin, John and Linke, Andrew M. and Witmer, Frank D. W.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	pmid = {25385621},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {16712--16717},
}

Ongoing debates in the academic community and in the public policy arena continue without clear resolution about the significance of global climate change for the risk of increased conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is generally agreed to be the region most vulnerable to such climate impacts. Using a large database of conflict events and detailed climatological data covering the period 1980–2012, we apply a multilevel modeling technique that allows for a more nuanced understanding of a climate–conflict link than has been seen heretofore. In the aggregate, high temperature extremes are associated with more conflict; however, different types of conflict and different subregions do not show consistent relationship with temperature deviations. Precipitation deviations, both high and low, are generally not significant. The location and timing of violence are influenced less by climate anomalies (temperature or precipitation variations from normal) than by key political, economic, and geographic factors. We find important distinctions in the relationship between temperature extremes and conflict by using multiple methods of analysis and by exploiting our time-series cross-sectional dataset for disaggregated analyses.

@article{nordhaus_estimates_2014,
	title = {Estimates of the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}: {Concepts} and {Results} from the {DICE}-{2013R} {Model} and {Alternative} {Approaches}},
	volume = {1},
	issn = {2333-5955, 2333-5963},
	shorttitle = {Estimates of the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	url = {http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/676035},
	doi = {10.1086/676035},
	abstract = {The social cost of carbon (SCC) is an important concept for understanding and implementing climate change policies. This term represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions (or more succinctly carbon) or its equivalent. The present study describes the development of the concept, provides examples of its use in current US regulator policies, examines its analytical background, and estimates the SCC using an updated integrated assessment model, the DICE-2013R model. The study estimates that the SCC is \$18.6 per ton of CO2 in 2005 US dollars and international prices for the current period (2015). For the central case, the real SCC grows at 3\% per year over the period to 2050. The major open issues concerning the SCC continue to be the appropriate discount rate, the potential for catastrophic damages, the impact of incomplete harmonization of abatement policies, and the effects of distortionary taxes.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1/2},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists},
	author = {Nordhaus, William},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {273--312},
}

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is an important concept for understanding and implementing climate change policies. This term represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions (or more succinctly carbon) or its equivalent. The present study describes the development of the concept, provides examples of its use in current US regulator policies, examines its analytical background, and estimates the SCC using an updated integrated assessment model, the DICE-2013R model. The study estimates that the SCC is $18.6 per ton of CO2 in 2005 US dollars and international prices for the current period (2015). For the central case, the real SCC grows at 3% per year over the period to 2050. The major open issues concerning the SCC continue to be the appropriate discount rate, the potential for catastrophic damages, the impact of incomplete harmonization of abatement policies, and the effects of distortionary taxes.

@article{neumann_state_2014,
	title = {State of the literature on the economic impacts of climate change in the {United} {States}},
	volume = {5},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-benefit-cost-analysis/article/state-of-the-literature-on-the-economic-impacts-of-climate-change-in-the-united-states/78287FF7779938060E3CD239941C1AFF},
	abstract = {This paper discusses the current literature on impacts and adaptation costs at the sectoral level. The focus is primarily the US, but includes examples on international applications that highlight key differences or other relevant demonstrations of method and data use. The paper provides an overall framework that addresses the components of economic impacts, including definitions of impacts, adaptation costs, and residual damages. The paper then focuses on understanding the current breadth and depth of the literature that exists to characterize what we know about economic sectors studied in the recent literature (agriculture, coastal resources, water resources, infrastructure, health, crime, energy, labor productivity, and ecosystems), how the methodologies differ, what the gaps and challenges are, and offers a sense of the impacts at the US national level. A new generation of impact studies, including the U.S. EPA’s ongoing Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project; the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 Working Group II report; the U.S. National Climate Assessment; and the Risky Business Project led by the Next Generation Foundation, provide the motivation for this review. These efforts, taken together, have advanced the state of US economic impact assessment work along two critical frontiers, both of which support benefit-cost analyses of climate change: assessment of the risk and economic consequences of extreme climatic events; and assessment of ecosystem effects. Yet, the latest work also highlights gaps in the lack of comprehensive sectoral coverage; more complete incorporation of adaptation opportunities in impact assessment; and critical cross- and multi-sectoral effects that remain poorly understood.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis},
	author = {Neumann, James E. and Strzepek, Kenneth},
	month = dec,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {411--443},
}

This paper discusses the current literature on impacts and adaptation costs at the sectoral level. The focus is primarily the US, but includes examples on international applications that highlight key differences or other relevant demonstrations of method and data use. The paper provides an overall framework that addresses the components of economic impacts, including definitions of impacts, adaptation costs, and residual damages. The paper then focuses on understanding the current breadth and depth of the literature that exists to characterize what we know about economic sectors studied in the recent literature (agriculture, coastal resources, water resources, infrastructure, health, crime, energy, labor productivity, and ecosystems), how the methodologies differ, what the gaps and challenges are, and offers a sense of the impacts at the US national level. A new generation of impact studies, including the U.S. EPA’s ongoing Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project; the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 Working Group II report; the U.S. National Climate Assessment; and the Risky Business Project led by the Next Generation Foundation, provide the motivation for this review. These efforts, taken together, have advanced the state of US economic impact assessment work along two critical frontiers, both of which support benefit-cost analyses of climate change: assessment of the risk and economic consequences of extreme climatic events; and assessment of ecosystem effects. Yet, the latest work also highlights gaps in the lack of comprehensive sectoral coverage; more complete incorporation of adaptation opportunities in impact assessment; and critical cross- and multi-sectoral effects that remain poorly understood.

@article{nelson_climate_2014,
	title = {Climate change effects on agriculture: {Economic} responses to biophysical shocks},
	volume = {111},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	shorttitle = {Climate change effects on agriculture},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222465110},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222465110},
	language = {en},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2017-07-25},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Nelson, Gerald C. and Valin, Hugo and Sands, Ronald D. and Havlík, Petr and Ahammad, Helal and Deryng, Delphine and Elliott, Joshua and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Heyhoe, Edwina and Kyle, Page and Von Lampe, Martin and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Mason d’Croz, Daniel and van Meijl, Hans and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique and Müller, Christoph and Popp, Alexander and Robertson, Richard and Robinson, Sherman and Schmid, Erwin and Schmitz, Christoph and Tabeau, Andrzej and Willenbockel, Dirk},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {3274--3279},
}

@article{nam_synergy_2014,
	title = {Synergy between pollution and carbon emissions control: {Comparing} {China} and the {United} {States}},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {01409883},
	shorttitle = {Synergy between pollution and carbon emissions control},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140988314001947},
	doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2014.08.013},
	abstract = {We estimate the potential synergy between pollution and climate control in the U.S. and China, summarizing the results as emissions cross-elasticities of control. In both countries, ancillary carbon reductions resulting from SO2 and NOx control tend to rise with the increased stringency of control targets, reflecting the eventual need for wholesale change toward non-fossil technologies when large reductions are required. Under stringent pollution targets, the non-target effects tend to be higher in China than in the U.S., due to China's heavy reliance on coal. This result suggests that China may have greater incentives to reduce SO2 and NOx with locally apparent pollution benefits, but related efforts would at the same time reduce CO2 emissions significantly. We also find strong non-target effects of CO2 abatement in both countries, but the cross effects in this direction depend less on the stringency of control and are stronger in the U.S. than in China.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {Energy Economics},
	author = {Nam, Kyung-Min and Waugh, Caleb J. and Paltsev, Sergey and Reilly, John M. and Karplus, Valerie J.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {186--201},
}

We estimate the potential synergy between pollution and climate control in the U.S. and China, summarizing the results as emissions cross-elasticities of control. In both countries, ancillary carbon reductions resulting from SO2 and NOx control tend to rise with the increased stringency of control targets, reflecting the eventual need for wholesale change toward non-fossil technologies when large reductions are required. Under stringent pollution targets, the non-target effects tend to be higher in China than in the U.S., due to China's heavy reliance on coal. This result suggests that China may have greater incentives to reduce SO2 and NOx with locally apparent pollution benefits, but related efforts would at the same time reduce CO2 emissions significantly. We also find strong non-target effects of CO2 abatement in both countries, but the cross effects in this direction depend less on the stringency of control and are stronger in the U.S. than in China.

@incollection{murphy_case_2014,
	title = {Case for a {Carbon} {Tax} is {Much} {Weaker} {Than} {You} {Think}},
	url = {http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/case-carbon-tax-much-weaker-think/},
	abstract = {The “carbon fee”—not a tax mind you—legislation introduced by Senators Whitehouse and Schatz epitomizes the dual reality in the debates over climate change policy. The commentary on the bill would lead the innocent reader to believe that this is textbook economics in response to a “market failure.” In reality, using the very same textbook economics and taking all of the Obama Administration computer models at face value, I will show that the proposed carbon tax is not at all suitable to the alleged problem. To repeat, the proposed U.S. carbon tax is unjustified on its own terms; one doesn’t have to be a “denier” and question the underlying assumptions about physical climate change.},
	urldate = {2017-09-19},
	booktitle = {Latest {Analysis},},
	author = {Murphy, Robert},
	month = dec,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

The “carbon fee”—not a tax mind you—legislation introduced by Senators Whitehouse and Schatz epitomizes the dual reality in the debates over climate change policy. The commentary on the bill would lead the innocent reader to believe that this is textbook economics in response to a “market failure.” In reality, using the very same textbook economics and taking all of the Obama Administration computer models at face value, I will show that the proposed carbon tax is not at all suitable to the alleged problem. To repeat, the proposed U.S. carbon tax is unjustified on its own terms; one doesn’t have to be a “denier” and question the underlying assumptions about physical climate change.

@article{mueller_heat_2014,
	title = {Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural {Pakistan}},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2103},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2103},
	abstract = {Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities 1, 2. Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991–2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite-derived measures of climate variability and control for potential confounders using a multivariate approach. We find that flooding—a climate shock associated with large relief efforts—has modest to insignificant impacts on migration. Heat stress, however—which has attracted relatively little relief—consistently increases the long-term migration of men, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Addressing weather-related displacement will require policies that both enhance resilience to climate shocks and lower barriers to welfare-enhancing population movements.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Mueller, V. and Gray, C. and Kosec, K.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {182--185},
}

Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities 1, 2. Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991–2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite-derived measures of climate variability and control for potential confounders using a multivariate approach. We find that flooding—a climate shock associated with large relief efforts—has modest to insignificant impacts on migration. Heat stress, however—which has attracted relatively little relief—consistently increases the long-term migration of men, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Addressing weather-related displacement will require policies that both enhance resilience to climate shocks and lower barriers to welfare-enhancing population movements.

@article{moyer_climate_2014,
	title = {Climate {Impacts} on {Economic} {Growth} as {Drivers} of {Uncertainty} in the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0047-2530, 1537-5366},
	url = {http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/678140},
	doi = {10.1086/678140},
	abstract = {We reexamine estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) used by agencies as the price of carbon emissions in cost-benefit analysis, focusing on those by the federal Interagency Working Group on SCC (IWG). We show that the models used by the IWG assume continued economic growth in the face of substantial temperature increases, which suggests that they may not capture the full range of possible consequences of climate change. Using the DICE integrated assessment model, we examine the possibility that climate change may directly affect productivity and find that even a modest impact of this type increases SCC estimates substantially. The SCC appears to be highly uncertain and sensitive to modeling assumptions. Understanding the impact of climate change therefore requires understanding how climate-related harms may affect productivity and economic growth. Furthermore, we suggest that misunderstandings about growth assumptions in the model may underlie the debate surrounding the proper discount rate.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {The Journal of Legal Studies},
	author = {Moyer, Elisabeth J. and Woolley, Mark D. and Matteson, Nathan J. and Glotter, Michael J. and Weisbach, David A.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {401--425},
}

We reexamine estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) used by agencies as the price of carbon emissions in cost-benefit analysis, focusing on those by the federal Interagency Working Group on SCC (IWG). We show that the models used by the IWG assume continued economic growth in the face of substantial temperature increases, which suggests that they may not capture the full range of possible consequences of climate change. Using the DICE integrated assessment model, we examine the possibility that climate change may directly affect productivity and find that even a modest impact of this type increases SCC estimates substantially. The SCC appears to be highly uncertain and sensitive to modeling assumptions. Understanding the impact of climate change therefore requires understanding how climate-related harms may affect productivity and economic growth. Furthermore, we suggest that misunderstandings about growth assumptions in the model may underlie the debate surrounding the proper discount rate.

@article{maystadt_extreme_2014,
	title = {Extreme {Weather} and {Civil} {War}: {Does} {Drought} {Fuel} {Conflict} in {Somalia} through {Livestock} {Price} {Shocks}?},
	volume = {96},
	issn = {0002-9092, 1467-8276},
	shorttitle = {Extreme {Weather} and {Civil} {War}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/ajae/aau010},
	doi = {10.1093/ajae/aau010},
	abstract = {A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within-country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62\%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics},
	author = {Maystadt, J.-F. and Ecker, O.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {1157--1182},
}

A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within-country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.

@article{lobell_greater_2014,
	title = {Greater {Sensitivity} to {Drought} {Accompanies} {Maize} {Yield} {Increase} in the {U}.{S}. {Midwest}},
	volume = {344},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1251423},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1251423},
	abstract = {A key question for climate change adaptation is whether existing cropping systems can become less sensitive to climate variations. We use a field-level data set on maize and soybean yields in the central United States for 1995 through 2012 to examine changes in drought sensitivity. Although yields have increased in absolute value under all levels of stress for both crops, the sensitivity of maize yields to drought stress associated with high vapor pressure deficits has increased. The greater sensitivity has occurred despite cultivar improvements and increased carbon dioxide and reflects the agronomic trend toward higher sowing densities. The results suggest that agronomic changes tend to translate improved drought tolerance of plants to higher average yields but not to decreasing drought sensitivity of yields at the field scale.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6183},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Lobell, D. B. and Roberts, M. J. and Schlenker, W. and Braun, N. and Little, B. B. and Rejesus, R. M. and Hammer, G. L.},
	month = may,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {516--519},
}

A key question for climate change adaptation is whether existing cropping systems can become less sensitive to climate variations. We use a field-level data set on maize and soybean yields in the central United States for 1995 through 2012 to examine changes in drought sensitivity. Although yields have increased in absolute value under all levels of stress for both crops, the sensitivity of maize yields to drought stress associated with high vapor pressure deficits has increased. The greater sensitivity has occurred despite cultivar improvements and increased carbon dioxide and reflects the agronomic trend toward higher sowing densities. The results suggest that agronomic changes tend to translate improved drought tolerance of plants to higher average yields but not to decreasing drought sensitivity of yields at the field scale.

@article{li_improving_2014,
	title = {Improving the {Practice} of {Economic} {Analysis} of {Climate} {Change} {Adaptation}},
	volume = {5},
	abstract = {The development of national and sectoral climate change adaptation strategies is burgeoning in the US and elsewhere in response to damages from extreme events and projected future risks from climate change. Increasingly, decision makers are requesting information on the economic damages of climate change as well as costs, benefits, and tradeoffs of alternative actions to inform climate adaptation decisions. This paper provides a practical view of the applications of economic analysis to aid climate change adaptation decision making, with a focus on benefit-cost analysis (BCA). We review the recent developments and applications of BCA with implications for climate risk management and adaptation decision making, both in the US and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. We found that BCA is still in early stages of development for evaluating adaptation decisions, and to date is mostly being applied to investment project-based appraisals. Moreover, the best practices of economic analysis are not fully reflected in the BCAs of climate adaptation-relevant decisions. The diversity of adaptation measures and decision-making contexts suggest that evaluation of adaptation measures may require multiple analytical methods. The economic tools and information would need to be transparent, accessible, and match with the decision contexts to be effective in enhancing decision making. Based on the current evidence, a set of analytical considerations is proposed for improving economic analysis of climate adaptation that includes the need to better address uncertainty and to understand the cross-sector and general equilibrium effects of sectoral and national adaptation policy.},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis},
	author = {Li, J. and Mullan, M. and Helgeson, Jennifer},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {445--67},
}

The development of national and sectoral climate change adaptation strategies is burgeoning in the US and elsewhere in response to damages from extreme events and projected future risks from climate change. Increasingly, decision makers are requesting information on the economic damages of climate change as well as costs, benefits, and tradeoffs of alternative actions to inform climate adaptation decisions. This paper provides a practical view of the applications of economic analysis to aid climate change adaptation decision making, with a focus on benefit-cost analysis (BCA). We review the recent developments and applications of BCA with implications for climate risk management and adaptation decision making, both in the US and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. We found that BCA is still in early stages of development for evaluating adaptation decisions, and to date is mostly being applied to investment project-based appraisals. Moreover, the best practices of economic analysis are not fully reflected in the BCAs of climate adaptation-relevant decisions. The diversity of adaptation measures and decision-making contexts suggest that evaluation of adaptation measures may require multiple analytical methods. The economic tools and information would need to be transparent, accessible, and match with the decision contexts to be effective in enhancing decision making. Based on the current evidence, a set of analytical considerations is proposed for improving economic analysis of climate adaptation that includes the need to better address uncertainty and to understand the cross-sector and general equilibrium effects of sectoral and national adaptation policy.

@article{lemoine_watch_2014,
	title = {Watch {Your} {Step}: {Optimal} {Policy} in a {Tipping} {Climate}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1945-7731, 1945-774X},
	shorttitle = {Watch {Your} {Step}},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pol.6.1.137},
	doi = {10.1257/pol.6.1.137},
	abstract = {We investigate the optimal policy response to the possibility of abrupt, irreversible shifts in system dynamics. The welfare cost of a tipping point emerges from the policymaker's response to altered system dynamics. Our policymaker also learns about a threshold's location by observing the system's response in each period. Simulations with a recursive, numerical climate-economy model show that tipping possibilities raise the optimal carbon tax more strongly over time. The resulting policy paths ultimately lower optimal peak warming by up to 0.5°C. Different types of posttipping shifts in dynamics generate qualitatively different optimal pretipping policy paths.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {American Economic Journal: Economic Policy},
	author = {Lemoine, Derek and Traeger, Christian},
	month = feb,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {137--166},
}

We investigate the optimal policy response to the possibility of abrupt, irreversible shifts in system dynamics. The welfare cost of a tipping point emerges from the policymaker's response to altered system dynamics. Our policymaker also learns about a threshold's location by observing the system's response in each period. Simulations with a recursive, numerical climate-economy model show that tipping possibilities raise the optimal carbon tax more strongly over time. The resulting policy paths ultimately lower optimal peak warming by up to 0.5°C. Different types of posttipping shifts in dynamics generate qualitatively different optimal pretipping policy paths.

@article{kyle_meeting_2014,
	title = {Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts: {KYLE} {ET} {AL}.},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {23284277},
	shorttitle = {Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013EF000199},
	doi = {10.1002/2013EF000199},
	abstract = {This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-07-20},
	journal = {Earth's Future},
	author = {Kyle, Page and Müller, Christoph and Calvin, Katherine and Thomson, Allison},
	month = feb,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {83--98},
}

This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

@article{kriegler_new_2014,
	title = {New {Scenario} {Framework} for {Climate} {Change} {Research}: the {Concept} of {Shared} {Climate} {Policy} {Assumptions}, {A}},
	volume = {122},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {A new scenario framework for climate change research},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0971-5},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0971-5},
	abstract = {The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key policy attributes such as the goals, instruments and obstacles of mitigation and adaptation measures, and introduce an important additional dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. They can be used to improve the comparability of scenarios in the scenario matrix. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-05-24},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Kriegler, Elmar and Edmonds, Jae and Hallegatte, Stéphane and Ebi, Kristie L. and Kram, Tom and Riahi, Keywan and Winkler, Harald and van Vuuren, Detlef P.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {401--414},
}

The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key policy attributes such as the goals, instruments and obstacles of mitigation and adaptation measures, and introduce an important additional dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. They can be used to improve the comparability of scenarios in the scenario matrix. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

@article{huber_climate_2014,
	title = {Climate impact research: beyond patchwork},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2190-4987},
	shorttitle = {Climate impact research},
	url = {http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/399/2014/},
	doi = {10.5194/esd-5-399-2014},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
	author = {Huber, V. and Schellnhuber, H. J. and Arnell, N. W. and Frieler, K. and Friend, A. D. and Gerten, D. and Haddeland, I. and Kabat, P. and Lotze-Campen, H. and Lucht, W. and Parry, M. and Piontek, F. and Rosenzweig, C. and Schewe, J. and Warszawski, L.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {399--408},
}

@article{hsiang_reconciling_2014,
	title = {Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to {Buhaug} et al.},
	volume = {127},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1276-z},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1276-z},
	abstract = {A comment by Buhaug et al. attributes disagreement between our recent analyses and their review articles to biased decisions in our meta-analysis and a difference of opinion regarding statistical approaches. The claim is false. Buhaug et al.’s alteration of our meta-analysis misrepresents findings in the literature, makes statistical errors, misclassifies multiple studies, makes coding errors, and suppresses the display of results that are consistent with our original analysis. We correct these mistakes and obtain findings in line with our original results, even when we use the study selection criteria proposed by Buhaug et al. We conclude that there is no evidence in the data supporting the claims raised in Buhaug et al.

This reply refers to the comment available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-10-16},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Burke, Marshall and Miguel, Edward},
	month = dec,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {399--405},
}

A comment by Buhaug et al. attributes disagreement between our recent analyses and their review articles to biased decisions in our meta-analysis and a difference of opinion regarding statistical approaches. The claim is false. Buhaug et al.’s alteration of our meta-analysis misrepresents findings in the literature, makes statistical errors, misclassifies multiple studies, makes coding errors, and suppresses the display of results that are consistent with our original analysis. We correct these mistakes and obtain findings in line with our original results, even when we use the study selection criteria proposed by Buhaug et al. We conclude that there is no evidence in the data supporting the claims raised in Buhaug et al. This reply refers to the comment available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1

@article{jensen_optimal_2014,
	title = {Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty: {Stochastic} integrated assessment and analytic findings},
	volume = {69},
	issn = {00142921},
	shorttitle = {Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0014292114000105},
	doi = {10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.01.008},
	abstract = {Economic growth over the coming centuries is one of the major determinants of today׳s optimal greenhouse gas mitigation policy. At the same time, long-run economic growth is highly uncertain. This paper is the first to evaluate optimal mitigation policy under long-term growth uncertainty in a stochastic integrated assessment model of climate change. The sign and magnitude of the impact depend on preference characteristics and on how damages scale with production. We explain the different mechanisms driving optimal mitigation under certain growth, under uncertain technological progress in the discounted expected utility model, and under uncertain technological progress in a more comprehensive asset pricing model based on Epstein–Zin–Weil preferences. In the latter framework, the dominating uncertainty impact has the opposite sign of a deterministic growth impact; the sign switch results from an endogenous pessimism weighting. All of our numeric scenarios use a DICE based assessment model and find a higher optimal carbon tax than the deterministic DICE base case calibration.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-07-20},
	journal = {European Economic Review},
	author = {Jensen, Svenn and Traeger, Christian P.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {104--125},
}

Economic growth over the coming centuries is one of the major determinants of today׳s optimal greenhouse gas mitigation policy. At the same time, long-run economic growth is highly uncertain. This paper is the first to evaluate optimal mitigation policy under long-term growth uncertainty in a stochastic integrated assessment model of climate change. The sign and magnitude of the impact depend on preference characteristics and on how damages scale with production. We explain the different mechanisms driving optimal mitigation under certain growth, under uncertain technological progress in the discounted expected utility model, and under uncertain technological progress in a more comprehensive asset pricing model based on Epstein–Zin–Weil preferences. In the latter framework, the dominating uncertainty impact has the opposite sign of a deterministic growth impact; the sign switch results from an endogenous pessimism weighting. All of our numeric scenarios use a DICE based assessment model and find a higher optimal carbon tax than the deterministic DICE base case calibration.

@article{ide_climate_2014,
	title = {On climate, conflict and cumulation: suggestions for integrative cumulation of knowledge in the research on climate change and violent conflict},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {1478-1158, 1478-1166},
	shorttitle = {On climate, conflict and cumulation},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14781158.2014.924917},
	doi = {10.1080/14781158.2014.924917},
	abstract = {Possible links between climate change and intra-state violent conflict have received major scholarly attention in recent years. But with few exceptions there is still a low level of consensus in this research field. The article argues that one reason for this disagreement is a lack of integrative cumulation of knowledge. Such an integrative cumulation is prevented by three obstacles, which have until now hardly been discussed in the literature. The first is the use of inadequate terms, discussed here with a focus on the labels ‘Malthusian’/‘cornucopian’ and the operationalization of key variables. Secondly, the weaknesses of large-N studies in research on climate change and violent conflict are not sufficiently reflected. These include a lack of data on crucial concepts as well as deficits of widely used datasets. Thirdly, literature that deals with a possible link between adverse environmental change and peace (termed here ‘environmental peace perspective’) has neither been systematized nor adequately considered in the debate so far. The article provides examples of these shortcomings and makes suggestions of how to address each of them. It also develops an integrative theoretical framework for the environmental peace perspective which facilitates its consideration in research on climate change and violent conflict.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-10-16},
	journal = {Global Change, Peace \& Security},
	author = {Ide, Tobias and Scheffran, Jürgen},
	month = sep,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {263--279},
}

Possible links between climate change and intra-state violent conflict have received major scholarly attention in recent years. But with few exceptions there is still a low level of consensus in this research field. The article argues that one reason for this disagreement is a lack of integrative cumulation of knowledge. Such an integrative cumulation is prevented by three obstacles, which have until now hardly been discussed in the literature. The first is the use of inadequate terms, discussed here with a focus on the labels ‘Malthusian’/‘cornucopian’ and the operationalization of key variables. Secondly, the weaknesses of large-N studies in research on climate change and violent conflict are not sufficiently reflected. These include a lack of data on crucial concepts as well as deficits of widely used datasets. Thirdly, literature that deals with a possible link between adverse environmental change and peace (termed here ‘environmental peace perspective’) has neither been systematized nor adequately considered in the debate so far. The article provides examples of these shortcomings and makes suggestions of how to address each of them. It also develops an integrative theoretical framework for the environmental peace perspective which facilitates its consideration in research on climate change and violent conflict.

@article{hsiang_reconciling_2014-1,
	title = {Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in {Africa}},
	volume = {111},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/111/6/2100},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1316006111},
	abstract = {A recent study by Burke et al. [Burke M, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema J, Lobell D (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(49):20670–20674] reports statistical evidence that the likelihood of civil wars in African countries was elevated in hotter years. A following study by Buhaug [Buhaug H (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(38):16477–16482] reports that a reexamination of the evidence overturns Burke et al.’s findings when alternative statistical models and alternative measures of conflict are used. We show that the conclusion by Buhaug is based on absent or incorrect statistical tests, both in model selection and in the comparison of results with Burke et al. When we implement the correct tests, we find there is no evidence presented in Buhaug that rejects the original results of Burke et al.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2017-10-23},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Meng, Kyle C.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2014},
	pmid = {24520173},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {2100--2103},
}

A recent study by Burke et al. [Burke M, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema J, Lobell D (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(49):20670–20674] reports statistical evidence that the likelihood of civil wars in African countries was elevated in hotter years. A following study by Buhaug [Buhaug H (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(38):16477–16482] reports that a reexamination of the evidence overturns Burke et al.’s findings when alternative statistical models and alternative measures of conflict are used. We show that the conclusion by Buhaug is based on absent or incorrect statistical tests, both in model selection and in the comparison of results with Burke et al. When we implement the correct tests, we find there is no evidence presented in Buhaug that rejects the original results of Burke et al.

@article{hsiang_climate_2014,
	title = {Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?},
	volume = {123},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Climate, conflict, and social stability},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0868-3},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0868-3},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Burke, Marshall},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {39--55},
}

@misc{hsiang_causal_2014,
	title = {Causal effect of environmental catastrophe on long-run economic growth: {Evidence} from 6,700 cyclones},
	shorttitle = {{NBER} {Working} {Paper} 20352},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w20352},
	abstract = {Does the environment have a causal effect on economic development? Using meteorological data, we reconstruct every country's exposure to the universe of tropical cyclones during 1950-2008. We exploit random within-country year-to-year variation in cyclone strikes to identify the causal effect of environmental disasters on long-run growth. We compare each country's growth rate to itself in the years immediately before and after exposure, accounting for the distribution of cyclones in preceding years. The data reject hypotheses that disasters stimulate growth or that short-run losses disappear following migrations or transfers of wealth. Instead, we find robust evidence that national incomes decline, relative to their pre-disaster trend, and do not recover within twenty years. Both rich and poor countries exhibit this response, with losses magnified in countries with less historical cyclone experience. Income losses arise from a small but persistent suppression of annual growth rates spread across the fifteen years following disaster, generating large and significant cumulative effects: a 90th percentile event reduces per capita incomes by 7.4\% two decades later, effectively undoing 3.7 years of average development. The gradual nature of these losses render them inconspicuous to a casual observer, however simulations indicate that they have dramatic influence over the long-run development of countries that are endowed with regular or continuous exposure to disaster. Linking these results to projections of future cyclone activity, we estimate that under conservative discounting assumptions the present discounted cost of "business as usual" climate change is roughly \$9.7 trillion larger than previously thought.},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

Does the environment have a causal effect on economic development? Using meteorological data, we reconstruct every country's exposure to the universe of tropical cyclones during 1950-2008. We exploit random within-country year-to-year variation in cyclone strikes to identify the causal effect of environmental disasters on long-run growth. We compare each country's growth rate to itself in the years immediately before and after exposure, accounting for the distribution of cyclones in preceding years. The data reject hypotheses that disasters stimulate growth or that short-run losses disappear following migrations or transfers of wealth. Instead, we find robust evidence that national incomes decline, relative to their pre-disaster trend, and do not recover within twenty years. Both rich and poor countries exhibit this response, with losses magnified in countries with less historical cyclone experience. Income losses arise from a small but persistent suppression of annual growth rates spread across the fifteen years following disaster, generating large and significant cumulative effects: a 90th percentile event reduces per capita incomes by 7.4% two decades later, effectively undoing 3.7 years of average development. The gradual nature of these losses render them inconspicuous to a casual observer, however simulations indicate that they have dramatic influence over the long-run development of countries that are endowed with regular or continuous exposure to disaster. Linking these results to projections of future cyclone activity, we estimate that under conservative discounting assumptions the present discounted cost of "business as usual" climate change is roughly $9.7 trillion larger than previously thought.

@incollection{kolstad_social_2014,
	address = {Cambridge, UK ; New York},
	title = {Social, economic and ethical concepts and methods ({Chapter} 3)},
	url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter3.pdf},
	booktitle = {Climate {Change} 2014: {Mitigation} of {Climate} {Change}. {Working} {Group} {III} {Contribution} to the {Fifth} {Assessment} {Report} of the {Intergovernmental} {Panel} on {Climate} {Change}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Kolstad, Charles and Urama, K. and Broome, J. and Bruvoll, A. and Cariño-Olvera, M. and Fullerton, Don and Gollier, Christian and Hanemann, W. Michael and Hassan, R. and Jotzo, F. and Khan, M.R. and Meyer, L. and Mundaca, L.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {173--248},
}

@article{gollier_discounting_2014,
	title = {Discounting and {Growth}},
	volume = {104},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.104.5.534},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.104.5.534},
	abstract = {In a growing economy, the discount rate to evaluate a long-term investment is the minimum rate of expected return that compensates for the increased intergenerational inequalities. Because the growth rate is uncertain, there is a precautionary argument in favor of lowering the discount rate. If shocks to growth are persistent, this is a robust argument for using a smaller discount rate for more distant time horizons. If climate damages are positively correlated with future consumption, a risk premium should be added to the climate discount rate, which could have an increasing term structure.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2017-05-23},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Gollier, Christian},
	month = may,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {534--537},
}

In a growing economy, the discount rate to evaluate a long-term investment is the minimum rate of expected return that compensates for the increased intergenerational inequalities. Because the growth rate is uncertain, there is a precautionary argument in favor of lowering the discount rate. If shocks to growth are persistent, this is a robust argument for using a smaller discount rate for more distant time horizons. If climate damages are positively correlated with future consumption, a risk premium should be added to the climate discount rate, which could have an increasing term structure.

@article{graff_zivin_temperature_2014,
	title = {Temperature and the {Allocation} of {Time}: {Implications} for {Climate} {Change}},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {0734-306X, 1537-5307},
	shorttitle = {Temperature and the {Allocation} of {Time}},
	url = {http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/671766},
	doi = {10.1086/671766},
	abstract = {We estimate the impacts of temperature on time allocation by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in temperature over time within counties. Temperature increases at the higher end of the distribution reduce hours worked in industries with high exposure to climate and reduce time allocated to outdoor leisure for the nonemployed, with this time reallocated to indoor leisure. At the lower end of the distribution, time allocated to labor is nonresponsive to temperature increases, but outdoor leisure increases while indoor leisure decreases as temperature warms. We also find suggestive evidence of short-run adaptation to higher temperatures through temporal substitutions and acclimatization.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-05-23},
	journal = {Journal of Labor Economics},
	author = {Graff Zivin, Joshua and Neidell, Matthew},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {1--26},
}

We estimate the impacts of temperature on time allocation by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in temperature over time within counties. Temperature increases at the higher end of the distribution reduce hours worked in industries with high exposure to climate and reduce time allocated to outdoor leisure for the nonemployed, with this time reallocated to indoor leisure. At the lower end of the distribution, time allocated to labor is nonresponsive to temperature increases, but outdoor leisure increases while indoor leisure decreases as temperature warms. We also find suggestive evidence of short-run adaptation to higher temperatures through temporal substitutions and acclimatization.

@article{hinkel_coastal_2014,
	title = {Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise},
	volume = {111},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222469111},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222469111},
	language = {en},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Hinkel, Jochen and Lincke, Daniel and Vafeidis, Athanasios T. and Perrette, Mahé and Nicholls, Robert James and Tol, Richard S. J. and Marzeion, Ben and Fettweis, Xavier and Ionescu, Cezar and Levermann, Anders},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {3292--3297},
}

@misc{heal_feeling_2014,
	title = {Feeling the {Heat}: {Temperature}, {Physiology} \& the {Wealth} of {Nations}},
	shorttitle = {Discussion {Paper} 14-60},
	url = {http://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/dp60_heal-park.pdf},
	abstract = {Does temperature affect economic performance? Has temperature always affected social welfare through its impact on physical and cognitive function? While many studies have explored the indirect links between climate and welfare (e.g. agricultural yield, violent conflict, or sea-level rise), few addressthe possibility of direct impacts operating through human physiology. This paper presents a model of labor supply under thermal stress, building on a longstanding physiological literature linking thermal stress to health and task performance. A key prediction is that effective labor supply – defined as a
composite of labor hours, task performance, and effort – is decreasing in temperature deviations from the biological optimum. We use country-level panel data on population-weighted average temperature and income (1950-2005), to illustrate the potential magnitude of the effect. Using a fixed effects estimation strategy, we find that hotter-than-average years are associated with lower output per capita for already hot countries and higher output per capita for cold countries: approximately 3\%-4\% in both directions. We then use household data on air conditioning and heating expenditures from the US to provide further evidence in support of a physiologically based causal mechanism. This more direct causal link between climate and social welfare has important implications for both the economics of climate change and comparative development.},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	publisher = {Harvard Project on Climate Agreements},
	author = {Heal, Geoffrey M. and Park, Jisung},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

Does temperature affect economic performance? Has temperature always affected social welfare through its impact on physical and cognitive function? While many studies have explored the indirect links between climate and welfare (e.g. agricultural yield, violent conflict, or sea-level rise), few addressthe possibility of direct impacts operating through human physiology. This paper presents a model of labor supply under thermal stress, building on a longstanding physiological literature linking thermal stress to health and task performance. A key prediction is that effective labor supply – defined as a composite of labor hours, task performance, and effort – is decreasing in temperature deviations from the biological optimum. We use country-level panel data on population-weighted average temperature and income (1950-2005), to illustrate the potential magnitude of the effect. Using a fixed effects estimation strategy, we find that hotter-than-average years are associated with lower output per capita for already hot countries and higher output per capita for cold countries: approximately 3%-4% in both directions. We then use household data on air conditioning and heating expenditures from the US to provide further evidence in support of a physiologically based causal mechanism. This more direct causal link between climate and social welfare has important implications for both the economics of climate change and comparative development.

@article{heal_reflections:_2014,
	title = {Reflections: {Uncertainty} and {Decision} {Making} in {Climate} {Change} {Economics}},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1750-6816, 1750-6824},
	shorttitle = {Reflections},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/reep/ret023},
	doi = {10.1093/reep/ret023},
	abstract = {but not precisely how fast or in what ways. Nor do we understand fully the social and economic consequences of these changes or the options that will be available for reducing climate change. Furthermore, the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified in probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty rather than known risks. We argue that this may render the classical expected utility framework for decision making under uncertainty of limited value for informing climate policy. We review the sources of uncertainty about all aspects of climate change, separate these into scientific and socioeconomic components, and examine their relative importance. Then we review decision-making frameworks that may be more appropriate in the absence of unique probabilities including nonprobabilistic approaches and those based on multiple priors, and we discuss their application in the context of climate change economics.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-12-04},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	author = {Heal, G. and Millner, A.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {120--137},
}

but not precisely how fast or in what ways. Nor do we understand fully the social and economic consequences of these changes or the options that will be available for reducing climate change. Furthermore, the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified in probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty rather than known risks. We argue that this may render the classical expected utility framework for decision making under uncertainty of limited value for informing climate policy. We review the sources of uncertainty about all aspects of climate change, separate these into scientific and socioeconomic components, and examine their relative importance. Then we review decision-making frameworks that may be more appropriate in the absence of unique probabilities including nonprobabilistic approaches and those based on multiple priors, and we discuss their application in the context of climate change economics.

@article{gollier_long-run_2014,
	title = {Long-{Run} {Discount} {Rate} {Controversy}, {The}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1941-1340, 1941-1359},
	url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-resource-100913-012516},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-resource-100913-012516},
	abstract = {The choice of the rate at which one should discount the long-term benefits of mitigating climate change is highly controversial. Both the level and the slope of the term structure of discount rates have been discussed intensively in relation to the determination of the social cost of carbon. Although some of the parameters of the problem are ethical and outside the scope of economic analysis, we claim that there are converging and convincing arguments in favor of using an annual real risk-free discount rate going from approximately 4\% to approximately 1\% for maturities going from zero to infinity. Investing in climate mitigation yields highly uncertain future benefits. Such uncertainty should also be taken into account in the selection of the discount rate, although the appropriate approach is highly controversial.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-05-23},
	journal = {Annual Review of Resource Economics},
	author = {Gollier, Christian and Hammitt, James K.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {273--295},
}

The choice of the rate at which one should discount the long-term benefits of mitigating climate change is highly controversial. Both the level and the slope of the term structure of discount rates have been discussed intensively in relation to the determination of the social cost of carbon. Although some of the parameters of the problem are ethical and outside the scope of economic analysis, we claim that there are converging and convincing arguments in favor of using an annual real risk-free discount rate going from approximately 4% to approximately 1% for maturities going from zero to infinity. Investing in climate mitigation yields highly uncertain future benefits. Such uncertainty should also be taken into account in the selection of the discount rate, although the appropriate approach is highly controversial.

@article{hejazi_integrated_2014,
	title = {Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {1607-7938},
	url = {http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/2859/2014/},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014},
	abstract = {Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36\% (28\%) and 44\% (39\%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) {\textgreater} 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095, particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase, driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	author = {Hejazi, M. I. and Edmonds, J. and Clarke, L. and Kyle, P. and Davies, E. and Chaturvedi, V. and Wise, M. and Patel, P. and Eom, J. and Calvin, K.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {2859--2883},
}

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) \textgreater 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095, particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase, driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

@misc{howard_omitted_2014,
	title = {Omitted {Damages}: {What}’s {Missing} from the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	url = {http://policyintegrity.org/files/publications/Omitted_Damages_Whats_Missing_From_the_Social_Cost_of_Carbon.pdf},
	abstract = {The 2013 Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) updated the U.S. social cost of carbon (SCC) for 2015 from a central value of \$24 to \$37 using three integrated assessment models (IAMs): DICE-2010, FUND 3.8, and PAGE09. The SCC is the additional economic damage caused by one ton of carbon dioxide. While some have questioned the increase in the SCC as too high, a thorough examination of the latest scientifi c and economic research shows that \$37 should be viewed as a lower bound. This is because the studies available to estimate the SCC omit many climate impacts—eff ectively valuing them at zero. Where estimates are available for a given type of impact, they tend to include only a portion of potential harms. This paper represents the first attempt
to systematically examine and document these omissions for the latest versions of the three IAMs used by the IWG, as well as earlier versions when they are used in calibrating the updated models. The table on the following page summarizes hot spot damages including increases in forced migration, social and political confl ict, and violence; weather variability and extreme weather events; and declining growth rates. A better accounting of catastrophic damages is also needed, as well as many other impacts. While there is a downward bias to the U.S. SCC estimates due to these omissions, the Offi ce of Management and Budget (OMB) and other executive branch agencies should move forward to finalize proposed rules with the 2013 IWG’s current SCC estimates, as measuring at least some of
the costs of carbon dioxide is better than assuming they are zero. At the same time, the OMB should more thoroughly document downward biases of the current U.S. SCC estimates, potentially using this report to list in detail all of the currently omitted damages.},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	publisher = {The Cost of Carbon Project},
	author = {Howard, Peter H.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

The 2013 Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) updated the U.S. social cost of carbon (SCC) for 2015 from a central value of $24 to $37 using three integrated assessment models (IAMs): DICE-2010, FUND 3.8, and PAGE09. The SCC is the additional economic damage caused by one ton of carbon dioxide. While some have questioned the increase in the SCC as too high, a thorough examination of the latest scientifi c and economic research shows that $37 should be viewed as a lower bound. This is because the studies available to estimate the SCC omit many climate impacts—eff ectively valuing them at zero. Where estimates are available for a given type of impact, they tend to include only a portion of potential harms. This paper represents the first attempt to systematically examine and document these omissions for the latest versions of the three IAMs used by the IWG, as well as earlier versions when they are used in calibrating the updated models. The table on the following page summarizes hot spot damages including increases in forced migration, social and political confl ict, and violence; weather variability and extreme weather events; and declining growth rates. A better accounting of catastrophic damages is also needed, as well as many other impacts. While there is a downward bias to the U.S. SCC estimates due to these omissions, the Offi ce of Management and Budget (OMB) and other executive branch agencies should move forward to finalize proposed rules with the 2013 IWG’s current SCC estimates, as measuring at least some of the costs of carbon dioxide is better than assuming they are zero. At the same time, the OMB should more thoroughly document downward biases of the current U.S. SCC estimates, potentially using this report to list in detail all of the currently omitted damages.

@article{fisher-vanden_introduction_2014,
	title = {Introduction to the {Special} {Issue} on {Climate} {Adaptation}: {Improving} the connection between empirical research and integrated assessment models},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {01409883},
	shorttitle = {Introduction to the {Special} {Issue} on {Climate} {Adaptation}},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S014098831400293X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.010},
	abstract = {Integrated assessment models (IAMs), models that couple the human and natural systems, have been widely used by the climate change research community to project the emissions consequences of economic activity and the technical potential and cost of mitigation options; to perform cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to determine the optimal future path of GHG emissions and mitigation costs; and to assess the magnitude and incidence of climate impacts and associated economic cost of climate damages. DICE (Nordhaus, 1994), the first fully coupled IAM to account for the feedbacks of climate change on the economy, introduced the device of a climate damage function which was global in scope but with a highly simplified and aggregated treatment of either the meteorological drivers of impacts (global mean temperature change) or their physical manifestations across different endpoints, economic sectors and geographic regions. In the intervening two decades a succession of IAMs has followed this lead, incorporating climate feedbacks with limited complexity—or more commonly disregarding them altogether, even as computational advances have made possible increasingly detailed representations of the economic activity to which climate change poses risks. As a consequence there has been slow progress in modeling climate adaptation responses, and, to the best of our knowledge, no study has accounted for the implications of impacts and adaptation for the climate stabilization strategies.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Energy Economics},
	author = {Fisher-Vanden, Karen and Popp, David and Wing, Ian Sue},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {495--499},
}

Integrated assessment models (IAMs), models that couple the human and natural systems, have been widely used by the climate change research community to project the emissions consequences of economic activity and the technical potential and cost of mitigation options; to perform cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to determine the optimal future path of GHG emissions and mitigation costs; and to assess the magnitude and incidence of climate impacts and associated economic cost of climate damages. DICE (Nordhaus, 1994), the first fully coupled IAM to account for the feedbacks of climate change on the economy, introduced the device of a climate damage function which was global in scope but with a highly simplified and aggregated treatment of either the meteorological drivers of impacts (global mean temperature change) or their physical manifestations across different endpoints, economic sectors and geographic regions. In the intervening two decades a succession of IAMs has followed this lead, incorporating climate feedbacks with limited complexity—or more commonly disregarding them altogether, even as computational advances have made possible increasingly detailed representations of the economic activity to which climate change poses risks. As a consequence there has been slow progress in modeling climate adaptation responses, and, to the best of our knowledge, no study has accounted for the implications of impacts and adaptation for the climate stabilization strategies.

@article{felgenhauer_modeling_2014,
	title = {Modeling adaptation as a flow and stock decision with mitigation},
	volume = {122},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-1016-9},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-1016-9},
	abstract = {An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term question is how investments in reducing climate damages should be allocated across these elements of a climate policy portfolio, especially in the face of uncertainty in both future climate damages and also the effectiveness of yet-untested adaptation efforts. We build on recent efforts in DICE-based integrated assessment modeling approaches that include two types of adaptation—short-lived flow spending and long-lived depreciable adaptation stock investments—along with mitigation, and we identify and explore the uncertainties that impact the relative proportions of policies within a response portfolio. We demonstrate that the relative ratio of flow adaptation, stock adaptation, and mitigation depend critically on interactions among: 1) the relative effectiveness in the baseline of stock versus flow adaptation, 2) the degree of substitutability between stock and flow adaptation types, and 3) whether there exist physical limits on the amount of damages that can be reduced by flow-type adaptation investments. The results indicate where more empirical research on adaptation could focus to best inform near-term policy decisions, and provide a first step towards considering near-term policies that are flexible in the face of uncertainty.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Felgenhauer, Tyler and Webster, Mort},
	month = feb,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {665--679},
}

An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term question is how investments in reducing climate damages should be allocated across these elements of a climate policy portfolio, especially in the face of uncertainty in both future climate damages and also the effectiveness of yet-untested adaptation efforts. We build on recent efforts in DICE-based integrated assessment modeling approaches that include two types of adaptation—short-lived flow spending and long-lived depreciable adaptation stock investments—along with mitigation, and we identify and explore the uncertainties that impact the relative proportions of policies within a response portfolio. We demonstrate that the relative ratio of flow adaptation, stock adaptation, and mitigation depend critically on interactions among: 1) the relative effectiveness in the baseline of stock versus flow adaptation, 2) the degree of substitutability between stock and flow adaptation types, and 3) whether there exist physical limits on the amount of damages that can be reduced by flow-type adaptation investments. The results indicate where more empirical research on adaptation could focus to best inform near-term policy decisions, and provide a first step towards considering near-term policies that are flexible in the face of uncertainty.

@article{fisher_climate_2014,
	title = {Climate {Policy}: {Science}, {Economics}, and {Extremes}},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1750-6816, 1750-6824},
	shorttitle = {Climate {Policy}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/reep/reu009},
	doi = {10.1093/reep/reu009},
	abstract = {Climate scientists, and natural scientists more generally, believe that climate change is a major, perhaps the most important, problem facing humankind this century, and that it is increasingly linked to extreme weather events. However, the impression one gets from much of the economic literature, particularly simulations from integrated assessment models used in policy analysis, is that the potential impacts of climate change are not large enough to warrant aggressive mitigation efforts in the near term. Although these models represent an important step in the needed interdisciplinary analysis of climate change by elucidating the links between climate and economy, we argue that they grossly underestimate potential impacts and associated damages because they (and the related policy analyses) fail to adequately capture extreme conditions, catastrophic events, and tipping points that trigger irreversible changes in the climate system, as well as impacts on the natural environment that cannot be monetized. Because the most severe impacts are expected in the later years of this century and beyond, discounting is crucial, and we argue that the appropriate rate is well below market rates. Moreover, we show that in the uniquely long period relevant to climate policy, the irreversibility of climate changes and impacts is more serious than the irreversibility of proposed mitigation measures. We conclude that an aggressive mitigation policy is warranted, one that holds further increases in global mean temperature to the scientific consensus on what is required to avoid the worst impacts, and that such a policy can be achieved at a cost that is well below potential damages.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	author = {Fisher, Anthony C. and Le, Phu V.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {307--327},
}

Climate scientists, and natural scientists more generally, believe that climate change is a major, perhaps the most important, problem facing humankind this century, and that it is increasingly linked to extreme weather events. However, the impression one gets from much of the economic literature, particularly simulations from integrated assessment models used in policy analysis, is that the potential impacts of climate change are not large enough to warrant aggressive mitigation efforts in the near term. Although these models represent an important step in the needed interdisciplinary analysis of climate change by elucidating the links between climate and economy, we argue that they grossly underestimate potential impacts and associated damages because they (and the related policy analyses) fail to adequately capture extreme conditions, catastrophic events, and tipping points that trigger irreversible changes in the climate system, as well as impacts on the natural environment that cannot be monetized. Because the most severe impacts are expected in the later years of this century and beyond, discounting is crucial, and we argue that the appropriate rate is well below market rates. Moreover, we show that in the uniquely long period relevant to climate policy, the irreversibility of climate changes and impacts is more serious than the irreversibility of proposed mitigation measures. We conclude that an aggressive mitigation policy is warranted, one that holds further increases in global mean temperature to the scientific consensus on what is required to avoid the worst impacts, and that such a policy can be achieved at a cost that is well below potential damages.

@incollection{field_technical_2014,
	address = {Cambridge, UK ; New York},
	title = {Technical summary},
	isbn = {978-1-107-05807-1},
	url = {http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/},
	booktitle = {Climate {Change} 2014: {Impacts}, {Adaptation}, and {Vulnerability}. {Part} {A}: {Global} and {Sectoral} {Aspects}. {Contribution} of {Working} {Group} {II} to the {Fifth} {Assessment} {Report} of the {Intergovernmental} {Panel} on {Climate} {Change}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and van Aalst, M. and Adger, W.N.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {35--94},
}

@article{diaz_evaluating_2014,
	title = {Evaluating the {Key} {Drivers} of the {US} {Government}'s {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}: {A} {Model} {Diagnostic} and {Inter}-{Comparison} {Study} of {Climate} {Impacts} in {DICE}, {FUND}, and {PAGE}},
	issn = {1556-5068},
	shorttitle = {Evaluating the {Key} {Drivers} of the {US} {Government}'s {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	url = {http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2655889},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2655889},
	abstract = {The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary estimate of the climate change damages to society from an additional emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). US agencies are now required to apply the SCC to assess the potential benefits of CO2 reductions in federal regulations, including rules and proposals affecting appliances, transportation, industry, and power generation. This paper presents the first in-depth model diagnostic and inter-comparison examination of the three integrated assessment models used to estimate the SCC – DICE, FUND, and PAGE – to reveal how they uniquely determine damages from climate change. Specifically, we reviewed the source code, published documentation, and underlying literature of each of the three models, and then performed controlled experiments to diagnose the contribution of particular sectors, regions, and other model assumptions (parametric and structural) to the resulting cost. We find that DICE and PAGE project substantially higher climate damages, and therefore higher SCC values, than FUND, which includes the potential for net benefits in the near-term. Despite the fact that FUND is highly-disaggregated sectorally and regionally, 95\% of its SCC can be explained by a few damage function parameters related to cooling, agriculture, avoided heating, and water resources, particularly those for China. The DICE SCC can only be decomposed into sea level rise damages and an aggregation of all other damages, with the latter category being the dominant SCC driver. The PAGE SCC is mostly driven by non-economic damages, with all costs distributed globally though greatest in the US and least in the former Soviet Union. In all three models, impacts from sea level rise contribute less than one-tenth of the SCC. This study's diagnostic analysis improves public understanding of the SCC, informs future SCC estimation, and sets research priorities for climate impacts modeling.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
	author = {Diaz, Delavane B.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary estimate of the climate change damages to society from an additional emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). US agencies are now required to apply the SCC to assess the potential benefits of CO2 reductions in federal regulations, including rules and proposals affecting appliances, transportation, industry, and power generation. This paper presents the first in-depth model diagnostic and inter-comparison examination of the three integrated assessment models used to estimate the SCC – DICE, FUND, and PAGE – to reveal how they uniquely determine damages from climate change. Specifically, we reviewed the source code, published documentation, and underlying literature of each of the three models, and then performed controlled experiments to diagnose the contribution of particular sectors, regions, and other model assumptions (parametric and structural) to the resulting cost. We find that DICE and PAGE project substantially higher climate damages, and therefore higher SCC values, than FUND, which includes the potential for net benefits in the near-term. Despite the fact that FUND is highly-disaggregated sectorally and regionally, 95% of its SCC can be explained by a few damage function parameters related to cooling, agriculture, avoided heating, and water resources, particularly those for China. The DICE SCC can only be decomposed into sea level rise damages and an aggregation of all other damages, with the latter category being the dominant SCC driver. The PAGE SCC is mostly driven by non-economic damages, with all costs distributed globally though greatest in the US and least in the former Soviet Union. In all three models, impacts from sea level rise contribute less than one-tenth of the SCC. This study's diagnostic analysis improves public understanding of the SCC, informs future SCC estimation, and sets research priorities for climate impacts modeling.

@misc{deryugina_does_2014,
	title = {Does the {Environment} {Still} {Matter}? {Daily} {Temperature} and {Income} in the {United} {States}},
	shorttitle = {{NBER} {Working} {Paper} {No}. 20750},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w20750},
	abstract = {It is widely hypothesized that incomes in wealthy countries are insulated from environmental conditions because individuals have the resources needed to adapt to their environment. We test this idea in the wealthiest economy in human history. Using within-county variation in weather, we estimate the effect of daily temperature on annual income in United States counties over a 40-year period. We find that this single environmental parameter continues to play a large role in overall economic performance: productivity of individual days declines roughly 1.7\% for each 1◦C (1.8◦F) increase in daily average temperature above 15◦C (59◦F). A weekday above 30◦C (86◦F) costs an average county \$20 per person. Hot weekends have little effect. These estimates are net of many forms of adaptation, such as factor reallocation, defensive investments, transfers, and price changes. Because the effect of temperature has not changed since 1969, we infer that recent uptake or innovation in adaptation measures have been limited. The non-linearity of the effect on different components of income suggest that temperature matters because it reduces the productivity of the economy’s basic elements, such as workers and crops. If counties could choose daily temperatures to maximize output, rather than accepting their geographically-determined endowment, we estimate that annual income growth wouldrise by 1.7 percentage points. Applying our estimates to a distribution of “business as usual” climate change projections indicates that warmer daily temperatures will lower annual growth by 0.06-0.16 percentage points in the United States unless populations engage in new forms of adaptation.},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Deryugina, T. and Hsiang, S.M.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

It is widely hypothesized that incomes in wealthy countries are insulated from environmental conditions because individuals have the resources needed to adapt to their environment. We test this idea in the wealthiest economy in human history. Using within-county variation in weather, we estimate the effect of daily temperature on annual income in United States counties over a 40-year period. We find that this single environmental parameter continues to play a large role in overall economic performance: productivity of individual days declines roughly 1.7% for each 1◦C (1.8◦F) increase in daily average temperature above 15◦C (59◦F). A weekday above 30◦C (86◦F) costs an average county $20 per person. Hot weekends have little effect. These estimates are net of many forms of adaptation, such as factor reallocation, defensive investments, transfers, and price changes. Because the effect of temperature has not changed since 1969, we infer that recent uptake or innovation in adaptation measures have been limited. The non-linearity of the effect on different components of income suggest that temperature matters because it reduces the productivity of the economy’s basic elements, such as workers and crops. If counties could choose daily temperatures to maximize output, rather than accepting their geographically-determined endowment, we estimate that annual income growth wouldrise by 1.7 percentage points. Applying our estimates to a distribution of “business as usual” climate change projections indicates that warmer daily temperatures will lower annual growth by 0.06-0.16 percentage points in the United States unless populations engage in new forms of adaptation.

@article{deschenes_temperature_2014,
	title = {Temperature, human health, and adaptation: {A} review of the empirical literature},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {01409883},
	shorttitle = {Temperature, human health, and adaptation},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140988313002387},
	doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2013.10.013},
	abstract = {This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature studying the relationship between health outcomes, temperature, and adaptation to temperature extremes. The objectives of the paper are to highlight the many remaining gaps in the empirical literature and to provide guidelines for improving the current Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) literature that seeks to incorporate human health and adaptation in its framework. I begin by presenting the conceptual and methodological issues associated with the measurement of the effect of temperature extremes on health, and the role of adaptation in possibly muting these effects. The main conclusion that emerges from the literature is that despite the wide variety of data sets and settings most studies find that temperature extremes lead to significant reductions in health, generally measured with excess mortality. Regarding the role of adaptation in mitigating the effects of extreme temperature on health, the available knowledge is limited, in part due to the few real-world data sets on adaptation behaviors. Finally, the paper discusses the implications of the currently available evidence for assessments of potential human health impacts of global climate change},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-05-23},
	journal = {Energy Economics},
	author = {Deschenes, Olivier},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {606--619},
}

This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature studying the relationship between health outcomes, temperature, and adaptation to temperature extremes. The objectives of the paper are to highlight the many remaining gaps in the empirical literature and to provide guidelines for improving the current Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) literature that seeks to incorporate human health and adaptation in its framework. I begin by presenting the conceptual and methodological issues associated with the measurement of the effect of temperature extremes on health, and the role of adaptation in possibly muting these effects. The main conclusion that emerges from the literature is that despite the wide variety of data sets and settings most studies find that temperature extremes lead to significant reductions in health, generally measured with excess mortality. Regarding the role of adaptation in mitigating the effects of extreme temperature on health, the available knowledge is limited, in part due to the few real-world data sets on adaptation behaviors. Finally, the paper discusses the implications of the currently available evidence for assessments of potential human health impacts of global climate change

@article{dell_what_2014,
	title = {What {Do} {We} {Learn} from the {Weather}? {The} {New} {Climate}-{Economy} {Literature}},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {0022-0515},
	shorttitle = {What {Do} {We} {Learn} from the {Weather}?},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/abs/10.1257/jel.52.3.740},
	doi = {10.1257/jel.52.3.740},
	abstract = {A rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature, precipitation, and windstorms influence economic outcomes. These studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output, industrial output, labor productivity, energy demand, health, conflict, and economic growth, among other outcomes. By harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit, these studies help credibly identify (i) the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy, (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations, and (iii) nonlinear effects of weather variables. This paper reviews the new literature with two purposes. First, we summarize recent work, providing a guide to its methodologies, datasets, and findings. Second, we consider applications of the new literature, including insights for the "damage function" within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Literature},
	author = {Dell, Melissa and Jones, Benjamin F. and Olken, Benjamin A.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {740--798},
}

A rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature, precipitation, and windstorms influence economic outcomes. These studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output, industrial output, labor productivity, energy demand, health, conflict, and economic growth, among other outcomes. By harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit, these studies help credibly identify (i) the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy, (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations, and (iii) nonlinear effects of weather variables. This paper reviews the new literature with two purposes. First, we summarize recent work, providing a guide to its methodologies, datasets, and findings. Second, we consider applications of the new literature, including insights for the "damage function" within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change.

@article{crost_optimal_2014,
	title = {Optimal {CO2} mitigation under damage risk valuation},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2249},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2249},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2017-12-04},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Crost, Benjamin and Traeger, Christian P.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {631--636},
}

@article{cropper_declining_2014,
	title = {Declining {Discount} {Rates}},
	volume = {104},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.104.5.538},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.104.5.538},
	abstract = {We ask whether the US government should replace its current discounting practices with a declining discount rate schedule, as the United Kingdom and France have done, or continue to discount the future at a constant exponential rate. We present the theoretical basis for a declining discount rate (DDR) schedule, but focus on how, in practice, a DDR could be estimated for use by policy analysts. We discuss the empirical approaches in the literature and review how the United Kingdom and France estimated their DDR schedules. We conclude with advice on how the United States might proceed to consider modifying its current discounting practices.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2017-05-17},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Cropper, Maureen L. and Freeman, Mark C. and Groom, Ben and Pizer, William},
	month = may,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {538--543},
}

We ask whether the US government should replace its current discounting practices with a declining discount rate schedule, as the United Kingdom and France have done, or continue to discount the future at a constant exponential rate. We present the theoretical basis for a declining discount rate (DDR) schedule, but focus on how, in practice, a DDR could be estimated for use by policy analysts. We discuss the empirical approaches in the literature and review how the United Kingdom and France estimated their DDR schedules. We conclude with advice on how the United States might proceed to consider modifying its current discounting practices.

@misc{bosello_documentation_2014,
	title = {Documentation on the development of damage functions and adaptation in the {WITCH} model},
	url = {https://www.cmcc.it/publications/rp0228-documentation-on-the-development-of-damage-functions-and-adaptation-in-the-witch-model},
	abstract = {This document describes two recent updates that have been made to the WITCH damage and adaptation modules. First, a new set of damage functions and of adaption cost curves embedding the more recent available knowledge have been calibrated. Second, the damage function has been modified to separate positive damages (benefits from climate change) from negative impacts. Adaptation only reduces the negative impacts while it does not contribute to enhancing positive impacts.},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	publisher = {Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici},
	author = {Bosello, Francesco and De Cian, Enrica},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

This document describes two recent updates that have been made to the WITCH damage and adaptation modules. First, a new set of damage functions and of adaption cost curves embedding the more recent available knowledge have been calibrated. Second, the damage function has been modified to separate positive damages (benefits from climate change) from negative impacts. Adaptation only reduces the negative impacts while it does not contribute to enhancing positive impacts.

@article{buhaug_one_2014,
	title = {One effect to rule them all? {A} comment on climate and conflict},
	volume = {127},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {One effect to rule them all?},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1},
	abstract = {A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other c},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-10-16},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Buhaug, H. and Nordkvelle, J. and Bernauer, T. and Böhmelt, T. and Brzoska, M. and Busby, J. W. and Ciccone, A. and Fjelde, H. and Gartzke, E. and Gleditsch, N. P. and Goldstone, J. A. and Hegre, H. and Holtermann, H. and Koubi, V. and Link, J. S. A. and Link, P. M. and Lujala, P. and O′Loughlin, J. and Raleigh, C. and Scheffran, J. and Schilling, J. and Smith, T. G. and Theisen, O. M. and Tol, R. S. J. and Urdal, H. and Uexkull, N. von},
	month = dec,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {391--397},
}

A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other c

@article{baldos_global_2014,
	title = {Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change},
	volume = {58},
	issn = {1364985X},
	shorttitle = {Global food security in 2050},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/1467-8489.12048},
	doi = {10.1111/1467-8489.12048},
	abstract = {In this paper, we examine how the complexities introduced by trends in agricultural productivity and climate change affect the future of global food security. We use a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture incorporating a food security module that links changes in the average dietary energy intake to shifts in the full caloric distribution, allowing us to compute changes in the incidence, headcount and average depth of malnutrition. After validating the model against an historical period, we implement a series of future scenarios to understand the impacts of key exogenous drivers on selected food security outcomes. Our results show improvements in global food security for the period 2006–2050. Despite growing population and increased biofuel demand, baseline income growth, coupled with projected increases in agricultural productivity lead to a 24 per cent rise in global average dietary energy intake. Consequently, the incidence of malnutrition falls by 84 per cent, lifting more than half a billion people out of extreme hunger. However, these results hinge heavily on agricultural productivity growth. Without such growth, there could be a substantial setback on food security improvements. Climate change adds uncertainty to these projections, depending critically on the crop yield impacts of increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics},
	author = {Baldos, Uris Lantz C. and Hertel, Thomas W.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {554--570},
}

In this paper, we examine how the complexities introduced by trends in agricultural productivity and climate change affect the future of global food security. We use a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture incorporating a food security module that links changes in the average dietary energy intake to shifts in the full caloric distribution, allowing us to compute changes in the incidence, headcount and average depth of malnutrition. After validating the model against an historical period, we implement a series of future scenarios to understand the impacts of key exogenous drivers on selected food security outcomes. Our results show improvements in global food security for the period 2006–2050. Despite growing population and increased biofuel demand, baseline income growth, coupled with projected increases in agricultural productivity lead to a 24 per cent rise in global average dietary energy intake. Consequently, the incidence of malnutrition falls by 84 per cent, lifting more than half a billion people out of extreme hunger. However, these results hinge heavily on agricultural productivity growth. Without such growth, there could be a substantial setback on food security improvements. Climate change adds uncertainty to these projections, depending critically on the crop yield impacts of increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

@misc{anthoff_d._fund:_2014,
	title = {{FUND}: {Climate} {Framework} for {Uncertainty}, {Negotiation} and {Distribution}},
	url = {http://www.fund-model.org/versions},
	abstract = {Various versions of the FUND model, their application, and their availability. Some ("Exp") are experimental versions of the model, not to be used by non-expert users. You can obtain the source code by contacting the developers. The model code of "Dev"-Versions will be made available after peer review.

The source code for FUND is maintained at http://github.com/fund-model/fund. The repository has two branches: master points to the latest released version of FUND. next points to work in progress. Tags point to previously released versions of FUND.},
	author = {{Anthoff, D.} and {Tol, Richard S. J.}},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

Various versions of the FUND model, their application, and their availability. Some ("Exp") are experimental versions of the model, not to be used by non-expert users. You can obtain the source code by contacting the developers. The model code of "Dev"-Versions will be made available after peer review. The source code for FUND is maintained at http://github.com/fund-model/fund. The repository has two branches: master points to the latest released version of FUND. next points to work in progress. Tags point to previously released versions of FUND.

@article{blanford_trade-offs_2014,
	title = {Trade-offs between mitigation costs and temperature change},
	volume = {123},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0869-2},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0869-2},
	abstract = {This paper uses the MERGE integrated assessment model to identify the least-cost mitigation strategy for achieving a range of climate policies. Mitigation is measured in terms of GDP foregone. This is not a benefit-cost analysis. No attempt is made to calculate the reduction in damages brought about by a particular policy. Assumptions are varied regarding the availability of energy-producing and energy-using technologies. We find pathways with substantial reductions in temperature change, with the cost of reductions varying significantly, depending on policy and technology assumptions. The set of scenarios elucidates the potential energy system transformation demands that could be placed on society. We find that policy that allows for “overshoot” of a radiative forcing target during the century results in lower costs, but also a higher temperature at the end of the century. We explore the implications of the costs and availability of key mitigation technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy, and their combination, known as BECS, as well as nuclear and energy efficiency. The role of “negative emissions” via BECS in particular is examined. Finally, we demonstrate the implications of nationally adopted emissions timetables based on articulated goals as a counterpoint to a global stabilization approach.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-05-17},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Blanford, Geoffrey and Merrick, James and Richels, Richard and Rose, Steven},
	month = apr,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {527--541},
}

This paper uses the MERGE integrated assessment model to identify the least-cost mitigation strategy for achieving a range of climate policies. Mitigation is measured in terms of GDP foregone. This is not a benefit-cost analysis. No attempt is made to calculate the reduction in damages brought about by a particular policy. Assumptions are varied regarding the availability of energy-producing and energy-using technologies. We find pathways with substantial reductions in temperature change, with the cost of reductions varying significantly, depending on policy and technology assumptions. The set of scenarios elucidates the potential energy system transformation demands that could be placed on society. We find that policy that allows for “overshoot” of a radiative forcing target during the century results in lower costs, but also a higher temperature at the end of the century. We explore the implications of the costs and availability of key mitigation technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy, and their combination, known as BECS, as well as nuclear and energy efficiency. The role of “negative emissions” via BECS in particular is examined. Finally, we demonstrate the implications of nationally adopted emissions timetables based on articulated goals as a counterpoint to a global stabilization approach.

@article{blanc_modeling_2014,
	title = {Modeling {U}.{S}. water resources under climate change: {BLANC} {ET} {AL}.},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {23284277},
	shorttitle = {Modeling {U}.{S}. water resources under climate change},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013EF000214},
	doi = {10.1002/2013EF000214},
	abstract = {Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select “wet” and “dry” patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-12-01},
	journal = {Earth's Future},
	author = {Blanc, Elodie and Strzepek, Kenneth and Schlosser, Adam and Jacoby, Henry and Gueneau, Arthur and Fant, Charles and Rausch, Sebastian and Reilly, John},
	month = apr,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {197--224},
}

Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select “wet” and “dry” patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

@article{bell_climatewater_2014,
	title = {Climate–water interactions—{Challenges} for improved representation in integrated assessment models},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {01409883},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140988313002995},
	doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2013.12.016},
	abstract = {Water plays a major role in the climate system and in mediating impacts of climate variability and change on all sectors of the economy. The incorporation of water resources modeling into integrated assessment models (IAMs) to study climate–hydrology processes, related water impacts and adaptation options is thus an area of interest, yet it poses a number of methodological challenges. In particular, models of economic activity, climate, water availability and use, and adaptation are developed at differing temporal and spatial scales and with different goals. This makes their integration highly complex and computationally demanding. In this review we highlight a set of modeling challenges in water resource systems, describe the state of the art of approaches to integrating water resources modeling with IAMs and economic modeling, and identify constraints and opportunities moving forward in the development of water resources modeling within the IAM frameworks.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Energy Economics},
	author = {Bell, Andrew and Zhu, Tingju and Xie, Hua and Ringler, Claudia},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {510--521},
}

Water plays a major role in the climate system and in mediating impacts of climate variability and change on all sectors of the economy. The incorporation of water resources modeling into integrated assessment models (IAMs) to study climate–hydrology processes, related water impacts and adaptation options is thus an area of interest, yet it poses a number of methodological challenges. In particular, models of economic activity, climate, water availability and use, and adaptation are developed at differing temporal and spatial scales and with different goals. This makes their integration highly complex and computationally demanding. In this review we highlight a set of modeling challenges in water resource systems, describe the state of the art of approaches to integrating water resources modeling with IAMs and economic modeling, and identify constraints and opportunities moving forward in the development of water resources modeling within the IAM frameworks.

@article{auffhammer_measuring_2014,
	title = {Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption: {A} review of the empirical literature},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {01409883},
	shorttitle = {Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140988314001017},
	doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.017},
	abstract = {This paper reviews the literature on the relationship between climate and the energy sector. In particular, we primarily discuss empirical papers published in peer-reviewed economics journals focusing on how climate affects energy expenditures and consumption. Climate will affect energy consumption by changing how consumers respond to short run weather shocks (the intensive margin) as well as how people will adapt in the long run (the extensive margin). Along the intensive margin, further research that uses household and firm-level panel data of energy consumption may help identify how energy consumers around the world respond to weather shocks. Research on technology adoption, e.g. air conditioners, will further our understanding of the extensive margin adjustments and their costs. We also note that most of the literature focuses on the residential sector. Similar studies are urgently needed for the industrial and commercial sectors.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {Energy Economics},
	author = {Auffhammer, Maximilian and Mansur, Erin T.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {522--530},
}

This paper reviews the literature on the relationship between climate and the energy sector. In particular, we primarily discuss empirical papers published in peer-reviewed economics journals focusing on how climate affects energy expenditures and consumption. Climate will affect energy consumption by changing how consumers respond to short run weather shocks (the intensive margin) as well as how people will adapt in the long run (the extensive margin). Along the intensive margin, further research that uses household and firm-level panel data of energy consumption may help identify how energy consumers around the world respond to weather shocks. Research on technology adoption, e.g. air conditioners, will further our understanding of the extensive margin adjustments and their costs. We also note that most of the literature focuses on the residential sector. Similar studies are urgently needed for the industrial and commercial sectors.

@article{arrow_should_2014,
	title = {Should {Governments} {Use} a {Declining} {Discount} {Rate} in {Project} {Analysis}?},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1750-6816, 1750-6824},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/reep/reu008},
	doi = {10.1093/reep/reu008},
	abstract = {Should governments use a discount rate that declines over time when evaluating the future benefits and costs of public projects? The argument for using a declining discount rate (DDR) is simple: if the discount rates that will be applied in the future are uncertain but positively correlated, and if the analyst can assign probabilities to these discount rates, then the result will be a declining schedule of certainty-equivalent discount rates. There is a growing empirical literature that estimates models of long-term interest rates and uses them to forecast the DDR schedule. However, this literature has been criticized because it lacks a connection to the theory of project evaluation. In benefit-cost analysis, the net benefits of a project in year t (in consumption units) are discounted to the present at the rate at which society would trade consumption in year t for consumption in the present. With simplifying assumptions, this leads to the Ramsey discounting formula, which results in a declining certainty-equivalent discount rate if the rate of growth in consumption is uncertain and if shocks to consumption are correlated over time. We conclude that the arguments in favor of a DDR are compelling and thus merit serious consideration by regulatory agencies in the United States.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	author = {Arrow, Kenneth J. and Cropper, Maureen L. and Gollier, Christian and Groom, Ben and Heal, Geoffrey M. and Newell, Richard G. and Nordhaus, William D. and Pindyck, Robert S. and Pizer, William A. and Portney, Paul R. and Sterner, Thomas and Tol, Richard S. J. and Weitzman, Martin L.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {145--163},
}

Should governments use a discount rate that declines over time when evaluating the future benefits and costs of public projects? The argument for using a declining discount rate (DDR) is simple: if the discount rates that will be applied in the future are uncertain but positively correlated, and if the analyst can assign probabilities to these discount rates, then the result will be a declining schedule of certainty-equivalent discount rates. There is a growing empirical literature that estimates models of long-term interest rates and uses them to forecast the DDR schedule. However, this literature has been criticized because it lacks a connection to the theory of project evaluation. In benefit-cost analysis, the net benefits of a project in year t (in consumption units) are discounted to the present at the rate at which society would trade consumption in year t for consumption in the present. With simplifying assumptions, this leads to the Ramsey discounting formula, which results in a declining certainty-equivalent discount rate if the rate of growth in consumption is uncertain and if shocks to consumption are correlated over time. We conclude that the arguments in favor of a DDR are compelling and thus merit serious consideration by regulatory agencies in the United States.

@misc{anthoff_d._climate_2014,
	title = {Climate {Framework} for {Uncertainty}, {Negotiation} and {Distribution}.},
	url = {http://www.fund-model.org/  [May 15 2017]},
	abstract = {The Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) is a so-called integrated assessment model of climate change. FUND was originally set-up to study the role of international capital transfers in climate policy, but it soon evolved into a test-bed for studying impacts of climate change in a dynamic context, and it is now often used to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, to study equity of climate change and climate policy, and to support game-theoretic investigations into international environmental agreements.
FUND links scenarios and simple models of population, technology, economics, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate, sea level, and impacts. Together, these elements describe not-implausible futures. The model runs in time-steps of one year from 1950 to 2300, and distinguishes 16 major world regions.
FUND further includes the option to reduce emissions of industrial carbon dioxide. Reductions can be set by the user, or calculated so as to meet certain criteria set by the user.
An integrated assessment model, FUND is used to advice policymakers about proper and not-so-proper strategies. The model, however, always reflects its developer's world views. It is therefore regularly contrary to the rhetoric of politicians, and occasionally politically incorrect.
It is the developer's firm belief that most researchers should be locked away in an ivory tower. Models are often quite useless in unexperienced hands, and sometimes misleading. No one is smart enough to master in a short period what took someone else years to develop. Not-understood models are irrelevant, half-understood models treacherous, and mis-understood models dangerous.
Therefore, FUND does not have a pretty interface, and you will have to make to real effort to let it do something, let alone to let it do something new. If you want to give it a try, you can download selected versions of the model. You will need TurboPascal 7.0 for DOS to operate version 2.9 and below. This programme is no longer on the market, but you can purchase Delphi by Borland instead. For version 3.0-3.4, you need MS Visual Studio 2008 and Oxygene/Chrome/Prism.
For version 3.5 and higher you can run FUND with the free Visual C\# Express Edition.
Descriptions and applications of the model can be found in the publications listed below.
FUND was originally developed by Richard Tol. It is now co-developed by David Anthoff and Richard Tol. FUND does not have an institutional home.
FUND would not have existed without the generous financial support by the Netherlands National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change,various research programmes of the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, the National Science Foundation through its support for the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, the Michael Otto Foundation, the Princeton Environmental Institute, and the Electric Power Research Institute.},
	author = {{Anthoff, D.} and {Tol, Richard S. J.}},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

The Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) is a so-called integrated assessment model of climate change. FUND was originally set-up to study the role of international capital transfers in climate policy, but it soon evolved into a test-bed for studying impacts of climate change in a dynamic context, and it is now often used to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, to study equity of climate change and climate policy, and to support game-theoretic investigations into international environmental agreements. FUND links scenarios and simple models of population, technology, economics, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate, sea level, and impacts. Together, these elements describe not-implausible futures. The model runs in time-steps of one year from 1950 to 2300, and distinguishes 16 major world regions. FUND further includes the option to reduce emissions of industrial carbon dioxide. Reductions can be set by the user, or calculated so as to meet certain criteria set by the user. An integrated assessment model, FUND is used to advice policymakers about proper and not-so-proper strategies. The model, however, always reflects its developer's world views. It is therefore regularly contrary to the rhetoric of politicians, and occasionally politically incorrect. It is the developer's firm belief that most researchers should be locked away in an ivory tower. Models are often quite useless in unexperienced hands, and sometimes misleading. No one is smart enough to master in a short period what took someone else years to develop. Not-understood models are irrelevant, half-understood models treacherous, and mis-understood models dangerous. Therefore, FUND does not have a pretty interface, and you will have to make to real effort to let it do something, let alone to let it do something new. If you want to give it a try, you can download selected versions of the model. You will need TurboPascal 7.0 for DOS to operate version 2.9 and below. This programme is no longer on the market, but you can purchase Delphi by Borland instead. For version 3.0-3.4, you need MS Visual Studio 2008 and Oxygene/Chrome/Prism. For version 3.5 and higher you can run FUND with the free Visual C# Express Edition. Descriptions and applications of the model can be found in the publications listed below. FUND was originally developed by Richard Tol. It is now co-developed by David Anthoff and Richard Tol. FUND does not have an institutional home. FUND would not have existed without the generous financial support by the Netherlands National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change,various research programmes of the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, the National Science Foundation through its support for the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, the Michael Otto Foundation, the Princeton Environmental Institute, and the Electric Power Research Institute.

@incollection{anthoff_income_2014,
	address = {London},
	title = {Income {Elasticity} of the {Impact} of {Climate} {Change}, {The}},
	isbn = {978-0-415-69059-1},
	url = {https://www.econbiz.de/Record/the-income-elasticity-of-the-impact-of-climate-change-anthoff-david/10010396555},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	booktitle = {Is the environment a luxury? : an inquiry into the relationship between environment and income},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Anthoff, David and Tol, Richard S. J.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {34--47},
}

@misc{anthoff_fund_2014,
	title = {{FUND} v3.9 {Scientific} {Documentation}},
	url = {http://www.fund-model.org/versions},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	author = {Anthoff, David and Tol, Richard S. J.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

@misc{anthoff_fund_2014-1,
	title = {{FUND} v3.8 {Scientific} {Documentation}},
	url = {http://www.fund-model.org/versions},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	author = {Anthoff, David and Tol, Richard S. J.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

@article{salehyan_climate_2014,
	series = {Special {Issue}: {Climate} {Change} and {Conflict}},
	title = {Climate change and conflict: {Making} sense of disparate findings},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0962-6298},
	shorttitle = {Climate change and conflict},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629814000997},
	doi = {10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.10.004},
	abstract = {This introduction to the special issues starts with a general overview of the literature. The relationship between climate, climate change, and conflict has been empirically tested in a wide variety of studies, but the literature has yet to converge on a commonly accepted set of results. This is mainly due to poor conceptualization of research designs and empirical measurements. Data are often collected at different temporal, geographic, and social scales. In addition, “climate” and “conflict” are rather elusive concepts and scholars have utilized different measures of each. The choice of measures and empirical tests is not a trivial one, but reflects different theoretical frameworks for understanding environmental influences on conflict. Therefore, results from different analyses are often not commensurable with one another and readers should be wary of broad, sweeping characterizations of the literature. The individual contributions to the special issue are also discussed. Articles herein focus on different geographic regions, temporal periods, and levels of conflict, adding additional layers of complexity to our understanding of the climate/conflict nexus.},
	number = {Supplement C},
	urldate = {2017-10-23},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {Salehyan, Idean},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {1--5},
}

This introduction to the special issues starts with a general overview of the literature. The relationship between climate, climate change, and conflict has been empirically tested in a wide variety of studies, but the literature has yet to converge on a commonly accepted set of results. This is mainly due to poor conceptualization of research designs and empirical measurements. Data are often collected at different temporal, geographic, and social scales. In addition, “climate” and “conflict” are rather elusive concepts and scholars have utilized different measures of each. The choice of measures and empirical tests is not a trivial one, but reflects different theoretical frameworks for understanding environmental influences on conflict. Therefore, results from different analyses are often not commensurable with one another and readers should be wary of broad, sweeping characterizations of the literature. The individual contributions to the special issue are also discussed. Articles herein focus on different geographic regions, temporal periods, and levels of conflict, adding additional layers of complexity to our understanding of the climate/conflict nexus.

@article{rosenzweig_assessing_2014,
	title = {Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison},
	volume = {111},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222463110},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222463110},
	abstract = {Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.},
	language = {en},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2017-07-27},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Elliott, Joshua and Deryng, Delphine and Ruane, Alex C. and Müller, Christoph and Arneth, Almut and Boote, Kenneth J. and Folberth, Christian and Glotter, Michael and Khabarov, Nikolay and Neumann, Kathleen and Piontek, Franziska and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Schmid, Erwin and Stehfest, Elke and Yang, Hong and Jones, James W.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {3268--3273},
}

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

@misc{rose_understanding_2014,
	title = {Understanding the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}: {A} {Technical} {Assessment}},
	abstract = {The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary estimate of the climate change damages to society from an additional unit of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted to the earth’s atmosphere. In 2010, the United States Government (USG) developed SCC estimates to value the benefits of CO2 emissions reductions in federal rulemakings. In 2013, the USG revised their estimates following the same procedure, but with newer versions of the underlying models, and the SCCs notably increased. SCC estimates of one kind or another have been applied in almost fifty federal regulations since 2008, including rules associated with appliances, transportation, industry, and power generation. However, not until earlier this year have the USG estimates been subject to explicit public comment.

Despite their use, the USG SCC estimates are difficult to interpret and evaluate. What does the central value of \$37 per metric ton of CO2 mean? What sorts of damages to society does it represent? What are the key drivers of estimated damages? How good is the current estimation approach, and can it be improved?

The USG SCC estimates are the result of significant aggregation across many dimensions: time, socioeconomic scenarios, uncertain parameters, world regions, damage categories, and models. This aggregation obscures the underlying details and drivers of results, as well as the variation across models. Making sense of the estimates requires delving into these details. Overall, there is a need for greater technical clarity on what underlies the estimates.

This study presents an in-depth examination of the three models underlying the current USG SCC estimates (DICE, FUND, and PAGE) as well as the overall USG approach. Specifically, we assess the major SCC modeling components—projected socioeconomics and emissions, climate modeling, and climate damages modeling— in isolation. For each component, we review the modeling, program the component from all three models, develop and run diagnostic scenarios, and make comparisons to learn about and assess the raw modeling and results (undiscounted and disaggregated to underlying elements). With the component assessments in hand as a technical basis, we then evaluate the USG approach of combining 150,000 model results to determine a USG SCC. In the climate and damage component assessments we explore a variety of perspectives, including deterministic and probabilistic model responses, and total and incremental model responses. The latter is particularly relevant because the SCC is an estimate of damages from an incremental increase in CO2 emissions.

Our assessment reveals significant variation across models in their structure, behavior, and results and identifies fundamental issues and opportunities for improvements. The objective of this work is to improve understanding of SCC modeling and estimates in order to inform and facilitate public discussion, future SCC modeling and use, and future climate research broadly.},
	publisher = {Electric Power Research Institute},
	author = {Rose, Steven K. and Turner, Delavene and Blanford, Geoffrey and Bistline, John and de la Chesnaye, Francisco C. and Wilson, Tom},
	month = oct,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
}

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary estimate of the climate change damages to society from an additional unit of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted to the earth’s atmosphere. In 2010, the United States Government (USG) developed SCC estimates to value the benefits of CO2 emissions reductions in federal rulemakings. In 2013, the USG revised their estimates following the same procedure, but with newer versions of the underlying models, and the SCCs notably increased. SCC estimates of one kind or another have been applied in almost fifty federal regulations since 2008, including rules associated with appliances, transportation, industry, and power generation. However, not until earlier this year have the USG estimates been subject to explicit public comment. Despite their use, the USG SCC estimates are difficult to interpret and evaluate. What does the central value of $37 per metric ton of CO2 mean? What sorts of damages to society does it represent? What are the key drivers of estimated damages? How good is the current estimation approach, and can it be improved? The USG SCC estimates are the result of significant aggregation across many dimensions: time, socioeconomic scenarios, uncertain parameters, world regions, damage categories, and models. This aggregation obscures the underlying details and drivers of results, as well as the variation across models. Making sense of the estimates requires delving into these details. Overall, there is a need for greater technical clarity on what underlies the estimates. This study presents an in-depth examination of the three models underlying the current USG SCC estimates (DICE, FUND, and PAGE) as well as the overall USG approach. Specifically, we assess the major SCC modeling components—projected socioeconomics and emissions, climate modeling, and climate damages modeling— in isolation. For each component, we review the modeling, program the component from all three models, develop and run diagnostic scenarios, and make comparisons to learn about and assess the raw modeling and results (undiscounted and disaggregated to underlying elements). With the component assessments in hand as a technical basis, we then evaluate the USG approach of combining 150,000 model results to determine a USG SCC. In the climate and damage component assessments we explore a variety of perspectives, including deterministic and probabilistic model responses, and total and incremental model responses. The latter is particularly relevant because the SCC is an estimate of damages from an incremental increase in CO2 emissions. Our assessment reveals significant variation across models in their structure, behavior, and results and identifies fundamental issues and opportunities for improvements. The objective of this work is to improve understanding of SCC modeling and estimates in order to inform and facilitate public discussion, future SCC modeling and use, and future climate research broadly.

@article{rose_bioenergy_2014,
	title = {Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management},
	volume = {123},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0965-3},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0965-3},
	abstract = {This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 \% per annum reaching 1 to 35 \% of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 \% of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 \% of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 \% of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited.

This article is part of the Special Issue on “The EMF27 Study on Global Technology and Climate Policy Strategies” edited by John Weyant, Elmar Kriegler, Geoffrey Blanford, Volker Krey, Jae Edmonds, Keywan Riahi, Richard Richels, and Massimo Tavoni.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Rose, Steven K. and Kriegler, Elmar and Bibas, Ruben and Calvin, Katherine and Popp, Alexander and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Weyant, John},
	month = apr,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {477--493},
}

This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 % per annum reaching 1 to 35 % of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 % of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 % of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 % of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited. This article is part of the Special Issue on “The EMF27 Study on Global Technology and Climate Policy Strategies” edited by John Weyant, Elmar Kriegler, Geoffrey Blanford, Volker Krey, Jae Edmonds, Keywan Riahi, Richard Richels, and Massimo Tavoni.

@article{revesz_global_2014,
	title = {Global warming: {Improve} economic models of climate change},
	volume = {508},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	shorttitle = {Global warming},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/508173a},
	doi = {10.1038/508173a},
	abstract = {Costs of carbon emissions are being underestimated, but current estimates are still valuable for setting mitigation policy, say Richard L. Revesz and colleagues.},
	number = {7495},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Revesz, Richard L. and Howard, Peter H. and Arrow, Kenneth and Goulder, Lawrence H. and Kopp, Robert E. and Livermore, Michael A. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Sterner, Thomas},
	month = apr,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {173--175},
}

Costs of carbon emissions are being underestimated, but current estimates are still valuable for setting mitigation policy, say Richard L. Revesz and colleagues.

@article{ranson_crime_2014,
	title = {Crime, weather, and climate change},
	volume = {67},
	issn = {00950696},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0095069613001289},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2013.11.008},
	abstract = {This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a 30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2997 US counties. I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for state-by-month and county-by-year fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft in the United States.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
	author = {Ranson, Matthew},
	month = may,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {274--302},
}

This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a 30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2997 US counties. I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for state-by-month and county-by-year fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft in the United States.

@incollection{porter_food_2014,
	address = {Cambridge, U.K. ; New York},
	title = {Food {Security} and {Food} {Production} {Systems}},
	url = {http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/},
	abstract = {The effects of climate change on crop and terrestrial food production are evident in several regions of the world (high confidence). Negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones. Positive trends are evident in some highlatitude regions (high confidence). Since AR4, there have been several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions, indicating a sensitivity of current markets to climate extremes, among other factors. Several of these climate extremes were made more likely as the result of anthropogenic emissions (medium confidence).},
	urldate = {2017-07-25},
	booktitle = {Climate {Change} 2014: {Impacts}, {Adaptation} and {Vulnerability}. {Working} {Group} 2 {Contribution} to the {IPCC} 5th {Assessment} {Report}},
	publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
	author = {Porter, J.R. and Xie, L. and Challinor, A.J. and Cochrane, K. and Howden, M. and Iqbal, M.M. and Travasso, M.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {Chapter 7},
}

The effects of climate change on crop and terrestrial food production are evident in several regions of the world (high confidence). Negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones. Positive trends are evident in some highlatitude regions (high confidence). Since AR4, there have been several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions, indicating a sensitivity of current markets to climate extremes, among other factors. Several of these climate extremes were made more likely as the result of anthropogenic emissions (medium confidence).

@article{pizer_using_2014,
	title = {Using and improving the social cost of carbon},
	volume = {346},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1259774},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1259774},
	abstract = {The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a crucial tool for economic analysis of climate policies. The SCC estimates the dollar value of reduced climate change damages associated with a one-metric-ton reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Although the conceptual basis, challenges, and merits of the SCC are well established, its use in government cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is relatively new. In light of challenges in constructing the SCC, its newness in government regulation, and the importance of updating, we propose an institutional process for regular SCC review and revision when used in government policy-making and suggest how scientists might contribute to improved SCC estimates},
	language = {en},
	number = {6214},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Pizer, W. and Adler, M. and Aldy, J. and Anthoff, D. and Cropper, M. and Gillingham, K. and Greenstone, M. and Murray, B. and Newell, R. and Richels, R. and Rowell, A. and Waldhoff, S. and Wiener, J.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {1189--1190},
}

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a crucial tool for economic analysis of climate policies. The SCC estimates the dollar value of reduced climate change damages associated with a one-metric-ton reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Although the conceptual basis, challenges, and merits of the SCC are well established, its use in government cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is relatively new. In light of challenges in constructing the SCC, its newness in government regulation, and the importance of updating, we propose an institutional process for regular SCC review and revision when used in government policy-making and suggest how scientists might contribute to improved SCC estimates

@article{van_den_bergh_lower_2014,
	title = {Lower {Bound} to the {Social} {Cost} of {CO2} {Emissions}, {A}},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2135},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2135},
	abstract = {Many studies have estimated the social cost of carbon (SCC). We critically evaluate SCC estimates, focusing on omitted cost categories, discounting, uncertainties about damage costs and risk aversion. This allows for the calculation of a lower bound to the SCC. Dominant SCC values turn out to be gross underestimates, notably, but not only, for a low discount rate. The validity of this lower bound is supported by a precautionary approach to reflect risk aversion against extreme climate change. The results justify a more stringent climate policy than is suggested by most influential past studies.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-07-31},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. and Botzen, W. J. W.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {253--258},
}

Many studies have estimated the social cost of carbon (SCC). We critically evaluate SCC estimates, focusing on omitted cost categories, discounting, uncertainties about damage costs and risk aversion. This allows for the calculation of a lower bound to the SCC. Dominant SCC values turn out to be gross underestimates, notably, but not only, for a low discount rate. The validity of this lower bound is supported by a precautionary approach to reflect risk aversion against extreme climate change. The results justify a more stringent climate policy than is suggested by most influential past studies.

@incollection{toth_key_2014,
	address = {Cambridge, UK ; New York},
	title = {Key economic sectors and services—supplementary material.},
	url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap10_FINAL.pdf [May 15, 2017]},
	booktitle = {Climate {Change} 2014: {Impacts}, {Adaptation}, and {Vulnerability}. {Part} {A}: {Global} and {Sectoral} {Aspects}. {Contribution} of {Working} {Group} {II} to the {Fifth} {Assessment} {Report} of the {Intergovernmental} {Panel} on {Climate} {Change}.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Toth, F.L. and Arent, D.J. and Faust, E. and Hella, J.P. and Kumar, S. and Strzepek, K.M. and Yan, D.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {659--708},
}

@article{sussman_climate_2014,
	title = {Climate change adaptation cost in the {US}: what do we know?},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1469-3062, 1752-7457},
	shorttitle = {Climate change adaptation cost in the {US}},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2013.777604},
	doi = {10.1080/14693062.2013.777604},
	abstract = {Researchers and policy makers increasingly recognize the need to adapt to future changes in climate, given that past emissions of greenhouse gases have already committed the world to some level of climate change. However, the current understanding of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures is still fairly rudimentary, and far from comprehensive. An assessment is presented of the current state of knowledge on the magnitude of adaptation costs in the United States. While incomplete, the studies suggest that adaptation cost could be as high as tens or hundreds of billions of dollars per year by the middle of this century. Key studies are identified in each sector, and the cost estimates and approaches to cost estimation are surveyed. Methodological issues are highlighted in interpreting, comparing, and aggregating adaptation cost estimates. Policy recommendations are made along with appropriate steps to make future adaptation cost studies more comparable within and across sectors and more accessible and relevant to policy and decision makers.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-06-10},
	journal = {Climate Policy},
	author = {Sussman, Fran and Krishnan, Nisha and Maher, Kathryn and Miller, Rawlings and Mack, Charlotte and Stewart, Paul and Shouse, Kate and Perkins, Bill},
	month = mar,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {242--282},
}

Researchers and policy makers increasingly recognize the need to adapt to future changes in climate, given that past emissions of greenhouse gases have already committed the world to some level of climate change. However, the current understanding of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures is still fairly rudimentary, and far from comprehensive. An assessment is presented of the current state of knowledge on the magnitude of adaptation costs in the United States. While incomplete, the studies suggest that adaptation cost could be as high as tens or hundreds of billions of dollars per year by the middle of this century. Key studies are identified in each sector, and the cost estimates and approaches to cost estimation are surveyed. Methodological issues are highlighted in interpreting, comparing, and aggregating adaptation cost estimates. Policy recommendations are made along with appropriate steps to make future adaptation cost studies more comparable within and across sectors and more accessible and relevant to policy and decision makers.

@article{sussman_challenges_2014,
	title = {Challenges in applying the paradigm of welfare economics to climate change},
	volume = {5},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/A2B8F3E170F88E0193AE322742A0356E/S2194588800000890a.pdf/div-class-title-challenges-in-applying-the-paradigm-of-welfare-economics-to-climate-change-div.pdf},
	abstract = {This paper discusses the challenges inherent in developing benefit-cost analysis (BCAs) of climate change. Challenges are explored from three perspectives: meeting the foundational premises for conducting BCA within the framework of welfare economics, methodological considerations that affect the application of the tools and techniques of BCA, and practical limitations that arise out of resource constraints and the nature of the question, project, or policy being evaluated. Although economic analysts frequently face – and overcome – conceptual and practical complications in developing BCAs, climate change presents difficulties beyond those posed by more conventional environmental problems. Five characteristics of the climate system and associated impacts on human and natural systems are identified that pose particular challenges to BCA of climate change, including ubiquity of impacts, intangibility, non-marginal changes, long timeframes, and uncertainty. These characteristics interact with traditional economic challenges, such as valuing non-market impact, addressing non-marginal changes, accounting for low-probability but high-impact events, and the eternal issue of appropriately discounting the future. A mapping between the characteristics of climate change and traditional economic challenges highlights the difficulties analysts are likely to encounter in conducting BCA. Despite these challenges, the paper argues that the fundamental ability of economic analysis to evaluate alternatives and tradeoffs is vital to decision making. Climate-related decisions span a wide range in terms of their scope, complexity, and depth, and for many applications of economic analyses the issues associated with climate change are tractable. In other cases it may require improved economic techniques or taking steps to ensure uncertainty is more fully addressed. Augmenting economic analysis with distribution analysis or an account of physical effects, and exploring how economic benefit and cost estimates can be incorporated into broader decision making frameworks have also been suggested. The paper concludes that there are opportunities for BCA to play a key role in informing climate change decision-making.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-07-27},
	journal = {Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis},
	author = {Sussman, F. and Weaver, C.P. and Grambsch, A.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {347--376},
}

This paper discusses the challenges inherent in developing benefit-cost analysis (BCAs) of climate change. Challenges are explored from three perspectives: meeting the foundational premises for conducting BCA within the framework of welfare economics, methodological considerations that affect the application of the tools and techniques of BCA, and practical limitations that arise out of resource constraints and the nature of the question, project, or policy being evaluated. Although economic analysts frequently face – and overcome – conceptual and practical complications in developing BCAs, climate change presents difficulties beyond those posed by more conventional environmental problems. Five characteristics of the climate system and associated impacts on human and natural systems are identified that pose particular challenges to BCA of climate change, including ubiquity of impacts, intangibility, non-marginal changes, long timeframes, and uncertainty. These characteristics interact with traditional economic challenges, such as valuing non-market impact, addressing non-marginal changes, accounting for low-probability but high-impact events, and the eternal issue of appropriately discounting the future. A mapping between the characteristics of climate change and traditional economic challenges highlights the difficulties analysts are likely to encounter in conducting BCA. Despite these challenges, the paper argues that the fundamental ability of economic analysis to evaluate alternatives and tradeoffs is vital to decision making. Climate-related decisions span a wide range in terms of their scope, complexity, and depth, and for many applications of economic analyses the issues associated with climate change are tractable. In other cases it may require improved economic techniques or taking steps to ensure uncertainty is more fully addressed. Augmenting economic analysis with distribution analysis or an account of physical effects, and exploring how economic benefit and cost estimates can be incorporated into broader decision making frameworks have also been suggested. The paper concludes that there are opportunities for BCA to play a key role in informing climate change decision-making.

@article{weitzman_fat_2014,
	title = {Fat {Tails} and the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	volume = {104},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.104.5.544},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.104.5.544},
	abstract = {At high enough greenhouse gas concentrations, climate change might conceivably cause catastrophic damages with small but non-negligible probabilities. If the bad tail of climate damages is sufficiently fat, and if the coefficient of relative risk aversion is greater than one, the catastrophe-reducing insurance aspect of mitigation investments could in theory have a strong influence on raising the social cost of carbon. In this paper I exposit the influence of fat tails on climate change economics in a simple stark formulation focused on the social cost of carbon. I then attempt to place the basic underlying issues within a balanced perspective.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2017-09-19},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Weitzman, Martin L.},
	month = may,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {544--546},
}

At high enough greenhouse gas concentrations, climate change might conceivably cause catastrophic damages with small but non-negligible probabilities. If the bad tail of climate damages is sufficiently fat, and if the coefficient of relative risk aversion is greater than one, the catastrophe-reducing insurance aspect of mitigation investments could in theory have a strong influence on raising the social cost of carbon. In this paper I exposit the influence of fat tails on climate change economics in a simple stark formulation focused on the social cost of carbon. I then attempt to place the basic underlying issues within a balanced perspective.

@article{weyant_integrated_2014,
	title = {Integrated assessment of climate change: state of the literature},
	volume = {5},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S2194588800000907},
	abstract = {This paper reviews applications of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) in climate policy assessment at the US national and global scales. Two different but related major application types are addressed. First there are global-scale analyses that focus on calculating optimal global carbon emissions trajectories and carbon prices that maximize global welfare. The second application is the use of the same tools to compute the social cost of carbon (SCC) for use in US regulatory processes. The SCC is defined as the climate damages attributable to an increase of one metric ton of carbon dioxide emissions above a baseline emissions trajectory that assumes no new climate policies. The paper describes the three main quantitative models that have been used in the optimal carbon policy and SCC calculations and then summarizes the range of results that have been produced using them. The results span an extremely broad range (up to an order of magnitude) across modeling platforms as well as across the plausible ranges of input assumptions to a single model. This broad range of results sets the stage for a discussion of the five key challenges that face BCA practitioners participating in the national and global climate change policy analysis arenas: (1) including the possibility of catastrophic outcomes; (2) factoring in equity and income distribution considerations; (3) addressing intertemporal discounting and intergenerational equity; (4) projecting baseline demographics, technological change, and policies inside and outside the energy sector; and (5) characterizing the full set of uncertainties to be dealt with and designing a decision-making process that updates and adapts new scientific and economic information into that process in a timely and productive manner. The paper closes by describing how the BCA models have been useful in climate policy discussions to date despite the uncertainties that pervade the results that have been produced.},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis,},
	author = {Weyant, John P.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {377--409},
}

This paper reviews applications of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) in climate policy assessment at the US national and global scales. Two different but related major application types are addressed. First there are global-scale analyses that focus on calculating optimal global carbon emissions trajectories and carbon prices that maximize global welfare. The second application is the use of the same tools to compute the social cost of carbon (SCC) for use in US regulatory processes. The SCC is defined as the climate damages attributable to an increase of one metric ton of carbon dioxide emissions above a baseline emissions trajectory that assumes no new climate policies. The paper describes the three main quantitative models that have been used in the optimal carbon policy and SCC calculations and then summarizes the range of results that have been produced using them. The results span an extremely broad range (up to an order of magnitude) across modeling platforms as well as across the plausible ranges of input assumptions to a single model. This broad range of results sets the stage for a discussion of the five key challenges that face BCA practitioners participating in the national and global climate change policy analysis arenas: (1) including the possibility of catastrophic outcomes; (2) factoring in equity and income distribution considerations; (3) addressing intertemporal discounting and intergenerational equity; (4) projecting baseline demographics, technological change, and policies inside and outside the energy sector; and (5) characterizing the full set of uncertainties to be dealt with and designing a decision-making process that updates and adapts new scientific and economic information into that process in a timely and productive manner. The paper closes by describing how the BCA models have been useful in climate policy discussions to date despite the uncertainties that pervade the results that have been produced.

@article{zhou_modeling_2014,
	title = {Modeling the effect of climate change on {U}.{S}. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework},
	volume = {113},
	issn = {03062619},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306261913006776},
	doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.08.034},
	abstract = {Objective

Because long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate change impact on buildings energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into climate policy and regional energy system planning.

Methods

In this study, we present a detailed buildings energy model with U.S. state-level representation, nested in an integrated assessment framework of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We project state-level buildings energy demand and its spatial pattern through the end of the century, considering the impact of climate change based on the estimates of heating and cooling degree days derived from downscaled USGS CASCaDE temperature data.

Results

The results indicate that climate change has a large impact on heating and cooling buildings energy and fuel use at the state level and that the 48 U.S. contiguous states exhibit a large spatial heterogeneity (ranges from −10\% to +10\% for total, −10\% to +20\% for electricity use and −20\% to −5\% for oil and gas use in the A2 scenario). Sensitivity analysis explores the potential implications of multiple driving forces, including climate action that would both change the price of energy and reduce climate change, the choice of climate models, and population and GDP growth. In addition, the 50-state building model is compared to a comparable version of the model which represents the entire United States as one region.
Conclusions

The study clearly demonstrates the spatially varying nature of fuel consumption changes that might occur from a changing climate. Although the study illustrates the importance of incorporating climate change into infrastructure-planning exercises, it also demonstrates that uncertainties about underlying drivers still must weigh heavily on these planning decisions. Finally, the study demonstrates that the 50-state building model provides both insights at the regional level and potentially better national-level estimates.

Practice implication

The findings from this study will help the climate-based policy decision and energy system, especially utility planning related to the buildings sector at the U.S. state and regional level facing the potential climate change.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-08-01},
	journal = {Applied Energy},
	author = {Zhou, Yuyu and Clarke, Leon and Eom, Jiyong and Kyle, Page and Patel, Pralit and Kim, Son H. and Dirks, James and Jensen, Erik and Liu, Ying and Rice, Jennie and Schmidt, Laurel and Seiple, Timothy},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1077--1088},
}

Objective Because long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate change impact on buildings energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into climate policy and regional energy system planning. Methods In this study, we present a detailed buildings energy model with U.S. state-level representation, nested in an integrated assessment framework of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We project state-level buildings energy demand and its spatial pattern through the end of the century, considering the impact of climate change based on the estimates of heating and cooling degree days derived from downscaled USGS CASCaDE temperature data. Results The results indicate that climate change has a large impact on heating and cooling buildings energy and fuel use at the state level and that the 48 U.S. contiguous states exhibit a large spatial heterogeneity (ranges from −10% to +10% for total, −10% to +20% for electricity use and −20% to −5% for oil and gas use in the A2 scenario). Sensitivity analysis explores the potential implications of multiple driving forces, including climate action that would both change the price of energy and reduce climate change, the choice of climate models, and population and GDP growth. In addition, the 50-state building model is compared to a comparable version of the model which represents the entire United States as one region. Conclusions The study clearly demonstrates the spatially varying nature of fuel consumption changes that might occur from a changing climate. Although the study illustrates the importance of incorporating climate change into infrastructure-planning exercises, it also demonstrates that uncertainties about underlying drivers still must weigh heavily on these planning decisions. Finally, the study demonstrates that the 50-state building model provides both insights at the regional level and potentially better national-level estimates. Practice implication The findings from this study will help the climate-based policy decision and energy system, especially utility planning related to the buildings sector at the U.S. state and regional level facing the potential climate change.

@misc{noauthor_regulatory_2014,
	title = {Regulatory impact analysis: {Development} of social cost of carbon estimates},
	url = {https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-663},
	abstract = {What GAO Found

To develop the 2010 and 2013 social cost of carbon estimates, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Council of Economic Advisers convened and led an informal interagency working group in which four other offices from the Executive Office of the President (EOP) and six federal agencies participated. Participating agencies were the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Transportation (DOT), and the Treasury. According to several working group participants, the working group included relevant subject-matter experts and the agencies likely to use the estimates in future rulemakings. According to OMB staff, there is no single approach for convening informal interagency working groups and no requirement that this type of working group should document its activities or proceedings. However, OMB and EPA participants stated that the working group documented all major issues discussed in the Technical Support Document, which is consistent with federal standards for internal control. According to the Technical Support Document and participants GAO interviewed, the working group's processes and methods reflected the following three principles:

Used consensus-based decision making. The working group used a consensus-based approach for making key decisions in developing the 2010 and 2013 estimates. Participants generally stated that they were satisfied that the Technical Support Document addressed individual comments on draft versions and reflected the overall consensus of the working group.

Relied on existing academic literature and models. The working group relied largely on existing academic literature and models to develop its estimates. Specifically, the working group used three prevalent academic models that integrate climate and economic data to estimate future economic effects from climate change. The group agreed on three modeling inputs reflecting the wide uncertainty in the academic literature, including discount rates. Once the group reached agreement, EPA officials—sometimes with the assistance of the model developers—calculated the estimates. All other model assumptions and features were unchanged by the working group, which weighted each model equally to calculate estimates. After the academic models were updated to reflect new scientific information, such as in sea level rise and associated damages, the working group used the updated models to revise its estimates in 2013, resulting in higher estimates.

Took steps to disclose limitations and incorporate new information. The Technical Support Document discloses several limitations of the estimates and areas that the working group identified as being in need of additional research. It also sets a goal of revisiting the estimates when substantially updated models become available. Since 2008, agencies have published dozens of regulatory actions for public comment that use various social cost of carbon estimates in regulatory analyses and, according to working group participants, agencies received many comments on the estimates throughout this process. Several participants told GAO that the working group decided to revise the estimates in 2013 after a number of public comments encouraged revisions because the models used to develop the 2010 estimates had been updated and used in peer-reviewed academic literature.

Why GAO Did This Study

Executive Order 12866 directs federal agencies to assess the economic effects of their proposed significant regulatory actions, including a determination that a regulation's benefits justify the costs. In 2008, a federal appeals court directed DOT to update a regulatory impact analysis with an estimate of the social cost of carbon—the dollar value of the net effects (damages and benefits) of an increase in emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.

In 2009, the Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon was convened to develop estimates for use governmentwide, and it issued final estimates in its 2010 Technical Support Document. In 2013, the group issued revised estimates that were about 50 percent higher than the 2010 estimates, which raised public interest.

GAO was asked to review the working group's development of social cost of carbon estimates. This report describes the participating entities and processes and methods they used to develop the 2010 and 2013 estimates. GAO reviewed executive orders, OMB guidance, the Technical Support Document, its 2013 update, and other key documents. GAO interviewed officials who participated in the working group on behalf of the EOP offices and agencies involved. GAO did not evaluate the quality of the working group's approach.

GAO is making no recommendations in this report. Of seven agencies, OMB and Treasury provided written or oral comments and generally agreed with the findings in this report. Other agencies provided technical comments only or had no comments.},
	publisher = {U.S. Government Accountability Office},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

What GAO Found To develop the 2010 and 2013 social cost of carbon estimates, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Council of Economic Advisers convened and led an informal interagency working group in which four other offices from the Executive Office of the President (EOP) and six federal agencies participated. Participating agencies were the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Transportation (DOT), and the Treasury. According to several working group participants, the working group included relevant subject-matter experts and the agencies likely to use the estimates in future rulemakings. According to OMB staff, there is no single approach for convening informal interagency working groups and no requirement that this type of working group should document its activities or proceedings. However, OMB and EPA participants stated that the working group documented all major issues discussed in the Technical Support Document, which is consistent with federal standards for internal control. According to the Technical Support Document and participants GAO interviewed, the working group's processes and methods reflected the following three principles: Used consensus-based decision making. The working group used a consensus-based approach for making key decisions in developing the 2010 and 2013 estimates. Participants generally stated that they were satisfied that the Technical Support Document addressed individual comments on draft versions and reflected the overall consensus of the working group. Relied on existing academic literature and models. The working group relied largely on existing academic literature and models to develop its estimates. Specifically, the working group used three prevalent academic models that integrate climate and economic data to estimate future economic effects from climate change. The group agreed on three modeling inputs reflecting the wide uncertainty in the academic literature, including discount rates. Once the group reached agreement, EPA officials—sometimes with the assistance of the model developers—calculated the estimates. All other model assumptions and features were unchanged by the working group, which weighted each model equally to calculate estimates. After the academic models were updated to reflect new scientific information, such as in sea level rise and associated damages, the working group used the updated models to revise its estimates in 2013, resulting in higher estimates. Took steps to disclose limitations and incorporate new information. The Technical Support Document discloses several limitations of the estimates and areas that the working group identified as being in need of additional research. It also sets a goal of revisiting the estimates when substantially updated models become available. Since 2008, agencies have published dozens of regulatory actions for public comment that use various social cost of carbon estimates in regulatory analyses and, according to working group participants, agencies received many comments on the estimates throughout this process. Several participants told GAO that the working group decided to revise the estimates in 2013 after a number of public comments encouraged revisions because the models used to develop the 2010 estimates had been updated and used in peer-reviewed academic literature. Why GAO Did This Study Executive Order 12866 directs federal agencies to assess the economic effects of their proposed significant regulatory actions, including a determination that a regulation's benefits justify the costs. In 2008, a federal appeals court directed DOT to update a regulatory impact analysis with an estimate of the social cost of carbon—the dollar value of the net effects (damages and benefits) of an increase in emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. In 2009, the Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon was convened to develop estimates for use governmentwide, and it issued final estimates in its 2010 Technical Support Document. In 2013, the group issued revised estimates that were about 50 percent higher than the 2010 estimates, which raised public interest. GAO was asked to review the working group's development of social cost of carbon estimates. This report describes the participating entities and processes and methods they used to develop the 2010 and 2013 estimates. GAO reviewed executive orders, OMB guidance, the Technical Support Document, its 2013 update, and other key documents. GAO interviewed officials who participated in the working group on behalf of the EOP offices and agencies involved. GAO did not evaluate the quality of the working group's approach. GAO is making no recommendations in this report. Of seven agencies, OMB and Treasury provided written or oral comments and generally agreed with the findings in this report. Other agencies provided technical comments only or had no comments.

@misc{noauthor_2014_2014,
	title = {2014 {Regulatory} {Impact} {Analysis}: {Development} of {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon} {Estimates}},
	url = {http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-663},
	abstract = {To develop the 2010 and 2013 social cost of carbon estimates, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Council of Economic Advisers convened and led an informal interagency working group in which four other offices from the Executive Office of the President (EOP) and six federal agencies participated. Participating agencies were the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Transportation (DOT), and the Treasury. According to several working group participants, the working group included relevant subject-matter experts and the agencies likely to use the estimates in future rulemakings. According to OMB staff, there is no single approach for convening informal interagency working groups and no requirement that this type of working group should document its activities or proceedings. However, OMB and EPA participants stated that the working group documented all major issues discussed in the Technical Support Document, which is consistent with federal standards for internal control. According to the Technical Support Document and participants GAO interviewed, the working group's processes and methods reflected the following three principles:

1) Used consensus-based decision making. The working group used a consensus-based approach for making key decisions in developing the 2010 and 2013 estimates. Participants generally stated that they were satisfied that the Technical Support Document addressed individual comments on draft versions and reflected the overall consensus of the working group.

2) Relied on existing academic literature and models. The working group relied largely on existing academic literature and models to develop its estimates. Specifically, the working group used three prevalent academic models that integrate climate and economic data to estimate future economic effects from climate change. The group agreed on three modeling inputs reflecting the wide uncertainty in the academic literature, including discount rates. Once the group reached agreement, EPA officials—sometimes with the assistance of the model developers—calculated the estimates. All other model assumptions and features were unchanged by the working group, which weighted each model equally to calculate estimates. After the academic models were updated to reflect new scientific information, such as in sea level rise and associated damages, the working group used the updated models to revise its estimates in 2013, resulting in higher estimates.

3) Took steps to disclose limitations and incorporate new information. The Technical Support Document discloses several limitations of the estimates and areas that the working group identified as being in need of additional research. It also sets a goal of revisiting the estimates when substantially updated models become available. Since 2008, agencies have published dozens of regulatory actions for public comment that use various social cost of carbon estimates in regulatory analyses and, according to working group participants, agencies received many comments on the estimates throughout this process. Several participants told GAO that the working group decided to revise the estimates in 2013 after a number of public comments encouraged revisions because the models used to develop the 2010 estimates had been updated and used in peer-reviewed academic literature.

Why GAO Did This Study
Executive Order 12866 directs federal agencies to assess the economic effects of their proposed significant regulatory actions, including a determination that a regulation's benefits justify the costs. In 2008, a federal appeals court directed DOT to update a regulatory impact analysis with an estimate of the social cost of carbon—the dollar value of the net effects (damages and benefits) of an increase in emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.

In 2009, the Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon was convened to develop estimates for use governmentwide, and it issued final estimates in its 2010 Technical Support Document. In 2013, the group issued revised estimates that were about 50 percent higher than the 2010 estimates, which raised public interest.

GAO was asked to review the working group's development of social cost of carbon estimates. This report describes the participating entities and processes and methods they used to develop the 2010 and 2013 estimates. GAO reviewed executive orders, OMB guidance, the Technical Support Document, its 2013 update, and other key documents. GAO interviewed officials who participated in the working group on behalf of the EOP offices and agencies involved. GAO did not evaluate the quality of the working group's approach.

GAO is making no recommendations in this report. Of seven agencies, OMB and Treasury provided written or oral comments and generally agreed with the findings in this report. Other agencies provided technical comments only or had no comments.},
	urldate = {2017-06-10},
	publisher = {U.S. Government Accountability Office},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

To develop the 2010 and 2013 social cost of carbon estimates, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Council of Economic Advisers convened and led an informal interagency working group in which four other offices from the Executive Office of the President (EOP) and six federal agencies participated. Participating agencies were the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Transportation (DOT), and the Treasury. According to several working group participants, the working group included relevant subject-matter experts and the agencies likely to use the estimates in future rulemakings. According to OMB staff, there is no single approach for convening informal interagency working groups and no requirement that this type of working group should document its activities or proceedings. However, OMB and EPA participants stated that the working group documented all major issues discussed in the Technical Support Document, which is consistent with federal standards for internal control. According to the Technical Support Document and participants GAO interviewed, the working group's processes and methods reflected the following three principles: 1) Used consensus-based decision making. The working group used a consensus-based approach for making key decisions in developing the 2010 and 2013 estimates. Participants generally stated that they were satisfied that the Technical Support Document addressed individual comments on draft versions and reflected the overall consensus of the working group. 2) Relied on existing academic literature and models. The working group relied largely on existing academic literature and models to develop its estimates. Specifically, the working group used three prevalent academic models that integrate climate and economic data to estimate future economic effects from climate change. The group agreed on three modeling inputs reflecting the wide uncertainty in the academic literature, including discount rates. Once the group reached agreement, EPA officials—sometimes with the assistance of the model developers—calculated the estimates. All other model assumptions and features were unchanged by the working group, which weighted each model equally to calculate estimates. After the academic models were updated to reflect new scientific information, such as in sea level rise and associated damages, the working group used the updated models to revise its estimates in 2013, resulting in higher estimates. 3) Took steps to disclose limitations and incorporate new information. The Technical Support Document discloses several limitations of the estimates and areas that the working group identified as being in need of additional research. It also sets a goal of revisiting the estimates when substantially updated models become available. Since 2008, agencies have published dozens of regulatory actions for public comment that use various social cost of carbon estimates in regulatory analyses and, according to working group participants, agencies received many comments on the estimates throughout this process. Several participants told GAO that the working group decided to revise the estimates in 2013 after a number of public comments encouraged revisions because the models used to develop the 2010 estimates had been updated and used in peer-reviewed academic literature. Why GAO Did This Study Executive Order 12866 directs federal agencies to assess the economic effects of their proposed significant regulatory actions, including a determination that a regulation's benefits justify the costs. In 2008, a federal appeals court directed DOT to update a regulatory impact analysis with an estimate of the social cost of carbon—the dollar value of the net effects (damages and benefits) of an increase in emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. In 2009, the Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon was convened to develop estimates for use governmentwide, and it issued final estimates in its 2010 Technical Support Document. In 2013, the group issued revised estimates that were about 50 percent higher than the 2010 estimates, which raised public interest. GAO was asked to review the working group's development of social cost of carbon estimates. This report describes the participating entities and processes and methods they used to develop the 2010 and 2013 estimates. GAO reviewed executive orders, OMB guidance, the Technical Support Document, its 2013 update, and other key documents. GAO interviewed officials who participated in the working group on behalf of the EOP offices and agencies involved. GAO did not evaluate the quality of the working group's approach. GAO is making no recommendations in this report. Of seven agencies, OMB and Treasury provided written or oral comments and generally agreed with the findings in this report. Other agencies provided technical comments only or had no comments.

@misc{noauthor_regulatory_2014-1,
	title = {Regulatory impact analysis for the proposed carbon pollution guidelines for existing power plants and emission standards for modified and reconstructed power plants},
	url = {https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-06/documents/20140602ria-clean-power-plan.pdf},
	urldate = {2017-09-19},
	publisher = {U.S. Environmental Protection Agency},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

@article{xiao_reclamation_2013,
	title = {Reclamation and revolt: {Social} responses in eastern {Inner} {Mongolia} to flood/drought-induced refugees from the north {China} plain 1644–1911},
	volume = {88},
	shorttitle = {Reclamation and revolt},
	journal = {Journal of Arid Environments},
	author = {Xiao, Lingbo B. and Fang, Xiuqi Q. and Ye, Yu},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {9--16},
}

@article{slettebak_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate change, natural disasters, and post-disaster unrest in {India}},
	volume = {12},
	number = {4},
	journal = {India Review},
	author = {Slettebak, Rune T.},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {260--279},
}

@article{mares_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate change and levels of violence in socially disadvantaged neighborhood groups},
	volume = {90},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Journal of urban health},
	author = {Mares, Dennis},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {768--783},
}

@article{lee_positive_2013,
	title = {Positive correlation between the {North} {Atlantic} {Oscillation} and violent conflicts in {Europe}},
	volume = {56},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Climate Research},
	author = {Lee, Harry F. and Zhang, David D. and Brecke, Peter and Fei, Jie},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {1--10},
}

@article{klomp_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate change, weather shocks, and violent conflict: a critical look at the evidence},
	volume = {44},
	shorttitle = {Climate change, weather shocks, and violent conflict},
	number = {s1},
	journal = {Agricultural Economics},
	author = {Klomp, Jeroen and Bulte, Erwin},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {63--78},
}

@article{harari_conflict_2013,
	title = {Conflict, climate and cells: {A} disaggregated analysis},
	shorttitle = {Conflict, climate and cells},
	number = {0},
	journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics},
	author = {Harari, Mariaflavia and La Ferrara, Eliana},
	year = {2013},
}

@article{kelly_continuous_2013,
	title = {A continuous climatic impact on {Holocene} human population in the {Rocky} {Mountains}},
	volume = {110},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Kelly, Robert L. and Surovell, Todd A. and Shuman, Bryan N. and Smith, Geoffrey M.},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {443--447},
}

@article{jia_weather_2013,
	title = {Weather shocks, sweet potatoes and peasant revolts in historical {China}},
	volume = {124},
	number = {575},
	journal = {The Economic Journal},
	author = {Jia, Ruixue},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {92--118},
}

@article{chaney_revolt_2013,
	title = {Revolt on the {Nile}: {Economic} {Shocks}, {Religion}, and {Political} {Power}},
	volume = {81},
	issn = {1468-0262},
	shorttitle = {Revolt on the {Nile}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.3982/ECTA10233},
	doi = {10.3982/ECTA10233},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Econometrica},
	author = {Chaney, Eric},
	month = sep,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {2033--2053},
}

@article{berazneva_explaining_2013,
	title = {Explaining the {African} food riots of 2007–2008: {An} empirical analysis},
	issn = {0306-9192},
	shorttitle = {Explaining the {African} food riots of 2007–2008},
	url = {http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=US201500065303},
	language = {English},
	urldate = {2018-10-03},
	journal = {Food policy},
	author = {Berazneva, Julia and Lee, David R.},
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
}

@misc{international_peace_research_institute_oslo_prio_ucdp/prio_2013,
	title = {{UCDP}/{PRIO} {Armed} {Conflict} {Dataset}},
	url = {www.prio.org/Data/Armed-Conflict/UCDP-PRIO/},
	journal = {PRIO},
	author = {International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO)},
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
}

@article{ackerman_epsteinzin_2013,
	title = {Epstein–{Zin} {Utility} in {DICE}: {Is} {Risk} {Aversion} {Irrelevant} to {Climate} {Policy}?},
	volume = {56},
	issn = {0924-6460, 1573-1502},
	shorttitle = {Epstein–{Zin} {Utility} in {DICE}},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10640-013-9645-z},
	doi = {10.1007/s10640-013-9645-z},
	abstract = {Climate change involves uncertain probabilities of catastrophic risks, and very longterm consequences of current actions. Climate economics, therefore, is centrally concerned with the treatment of risk and time. Yet conventional assumptions about utility and optimal economic growth create a perverse connection between risk aversion and time preference, such that more aversion to current risks implies less concern for future outcomes, and vice versa. The same conflation of risk aversion and time preference leads to the equity premium puzzle in finance. A promising response to the equity premium puzzle, the recursive utility of Epstein and Zin, allows separation of risk aversion and time preference—at the cost of considerable analytic complexity. We introduce an accessible implementation of Epstein–Zin utility into the DICE model of climate economics, creating a hybrid “EZ-DICE” model. Using Epstein–Zin parameters from the finance literature and climate uncertainty parameters from the science literature, we find that the optimal climate policy in EZ-DICE calls for rapid abatement of carbon emissions; it is similar to standard DICE results with the discount rate set to equal the risk-free rate of return. EZ-DICE solutions are sensitive to the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, but remarkably insensitive to risk aversion. Insensitivity to risk aversion may reflect the difficulty of modeling catastrophic risks within DICE. Implicit in DICE are strong assumptions about the cost of climate stabilization and the certainty and speed of success; under these assumptions, risk aversion would in fact be unimportant. A more realistic analysis will require a subtler treatment of catastrophic climate risk.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
	author = {Ackerman, Frank and Stanton, Elizabeth A. and Bueno, Ramón},
	month = sep,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {73--84},
}

Climate change involves uncertain probabilities of catastrophic risks, and very longterm consequences of current actions. Climate economics, therefore, is centrally concerned with the treatment of risk and time. Yet conventional assumptions about utility and optimal economic growth create a perverse connection between risk aversion and time preference, such that more aversion to current risks implies less concern for future outcomes, and vice versa. The same conflation of risk aversion and time preference leads to the equity premium puzzle in finance. A promising response to the equity premium puzzle, the recursive utility of Epstein and Zin, allows separation of risk aversion and time preference—at the cost of considerable analytic complexity. We introduce an accessible implementation of Epstein–Zin utility into the DICE model of climate economics, creating a hybrid “EZ-DICE” model. Using Epstein–Zin parameters from the finance literature and climate uncertainty parameters from the science literature, we find that the optimal climate policy in EZ-DICE calls for rapid abatement of carbon emissions; it is similar to standard DICE results with the discount rate set to equal the risk-free rate of return. EZ-DICE solutions are sensitive to the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, but remarkably insensitive to risk aversion. Insensitivity to risk aversion may reflect the difficulty of modeling catastrophic risks within DICE. Implicit in DICE are strong assumptions about the cost of climate stabilization and the certainty and speed of success; under these assumptions, risk aversion would in fact be unimportant. A more realistic analysis will require a subtler treatment of catastrophic climate risk.

@article{ruiz_economics_2013,
	title = {Economics of {Forced} {Migration}, {The}},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {0022-0388},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2013.777707},
	doi = {10.1080/00220388.2013.777707},
	abstract = {This article reviews the economics literature on the impacts of forced migration. The literature is divided into two parts: impacts on forced migrants and impacts on host communities. Studies exploring the impact of forced migration due to WWII suggest that the long-term impact is often positive. The literature for developing countries suggests that there are serious consequences of forced migration for those forced to migrate. These consequences range from worse labour market outcomes to less consumption smoothing. The impact on host communities seems to be mixed and there are winners and losers. The article provides suggestions for future research.},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2017-11-08},
	journal = {The Journal of Development Studies},
	author = {Ruiz, Isabel and Vargas-Silva, Carlos},
	month = jun,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Damages, Geography: Europe, Geography: Regional, Geography: Revisit, Issue, Method: Litearture Review, Sector: Labor Supply and Productivity, Sector: Migration},
	pages = {772--784},
}

This article reviews the economics literature on the impacts of forced migration. The literature is divided into two parts: impacts on forced migrants and impacts on host communities. Studies exploring the impact of forced migration due to WWII suggest that the long-term impact is often positive. The literature for developing countries suggests that there are serious consequences of forced migration for those forced to migrate. These consequences range from worse labour market outcomes to less consumption smoothing. The impact on host communities seems to be mixed and there are winners and losers. The article provides suggestions for future research.

@article{stern_structure_2013,
	title = {Structure of {Economic} {Modeling} of the {Potential} {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change}: {Grafting} {Gross} {Underestimation} of {Risk} onto {Already} {Narrow} {Science} {Models}, {The}},
	volume = {51},
	issn = {0022-0515},
	shorttitle = {The {Structure} of {Economic} {Modeling} of the {Potential} {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jel.51.3.838},
	doi = {10.1257/jel.51.3.838},
	abstract = {Scientists describe the scale of the risks from unmanaged climate change as potentially immense. However, the scientific models, because they omit key factors that are hard to capture precisely, appear to substantially underestimate these risks. Many economic models add further gross underassessment of risk because the assumptions built into the economic modeling on growth, damages and risks, come close to assuming directly that the impacts and costs will be modest and close to excluding the possibility of catastrophic outcomes. A new generation of models is needed in all three of climate science, impact and economics with a still stronger focus on lives and livelihoods, including the risks of large-scale migration and conflicts.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-07-27},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Literature},
	author = {Stern, Nicholas},
	month = sep,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Damages, Geography: Global, Method: Meta-Analysis, Method: Mixed Methods, Method: Process-based, Sector: Conflict, Sector: Migration, Sector: Tipping Elements, Tags Edited},
	pages = {838--859},
}

Scientists describe the scale of the risks from unmanaged climate change as potentially immense. However, the scientific models, because they omit key factors that are hard to capture precisely, appear to substantially underestimate these risks. Many economic models add further gross underassessment of risk because the assumptions built into the economic modeling on growth, damages and risks, come close to assuming directly that the impacts and costs will be modest and close to excluding the possibility of catastrophic outcomes. A new generation of models is needed in all three of climate science, impact and economics with a still stronger focus on lives and livelihoods, including the risks of large-scale migration and conflicts.

@article{schlosser_quantifying_2013,
	title = {Quantifying the {Likelihood} of {Regional} {Climate} {Change}: {A} {Hybridized} {Approach}},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {0894-8755, 1520-0442},
	shorttitle = {Quantifying the {Likelihood} of {Regional} {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00730.1},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00730.1},
	abstract = {The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change calls for increased capability in climate projections: specifically, the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Herein, the authors present a technique that extends the latitudinal projections of the 2D atmospheric model of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) by applying longitudinally resolved patterns from observations, and from climate model projections archived from exercises carried out for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The method maps the IGSM zonal means across longitude using a set of transformation coefficients, and this approach is demonstrated in application to near-surface air temperature and precipitation, for which high-quality observational datasets and model simulations of climate change are available. The current climatology of the transformation coefficients is observationally based. To estimate how these coefficients may alter with climate, the authors characterize the climate models’ spatial responses, relative to their zonal mean, from transient increases in trace-gas concentrations and then normalize these responses against their corresponding transient global temperature responses. This procedure allows for the construction of metaensembles of regional climate outcomes, combining the ensembles of the MIT IGSM—which produce global and latitudinal climate projections, with uncertainty, under different global climate policy scenarios—with regionally resolved patterns from the archived IPCC climate model projections. This hybridization of the climate model longitudinal projections with the global and latitudinal patterns projected by the IGSM can, in principle, be applied to any given state or flux variable that has the sufficient observational and model-based information.},
	language = {en},
	number = {10},
	urldate = {2017-06-10},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Schlosser, C. Adam and Gao, Xiang and Strzepek, Kenneth and Sokolov, Andrei and Forest, Chris E. and Awadalla, Sirein and Farmer, William},
	month = may,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Geography: Regional, Method: Empirical, Method: Mixed Methods, Other SCC, Sector: Climate Science, Tags Edited},
	pages = {3394--3414},
}

The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change calls for increased capability in climate projections: specifically, the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Herein, the authors present a technique that extends the latitudinal projections of the 2D atmospheric model of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) by applying longitudinally resolved patterns from observations, and from climate model projections archived from exercises carried out for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The method maps the IGSM zonal means across longitude using a set of transformation coefficients, and this approach is demonstrated in application to near-surface air temperature and precipitation, for which high-quality observational datasets and model simulations of climate change are available. The current climatology of the transformation coefficients is observationally based. To estimate how these coefficients may alter with climate, the authors characterize the climate models’ spatial responses, relative to their zonal mean, from transient increases in trace-gas concentrations and then normalize these responses against their corresponding transient global temperature responses. This procedure allows for the construction of metaensembles of regional climate outcomes, combining the ensembles of the MIT IGSM—which produce global and latitudinal climate projections, with uncertainty, under different global climate policy scenarios—with regionally resolved patterns from the archived IPCC climate model projections. This hybridization of the climate model longitudinal projections with the global and latitudinal patterns projected by the IGSM can, in principle, be applied to any given state or flux variable that has the sufficient observational and model-based information.

@article{calvin_implications_2013,
	title = {Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using {GCAM}},
	volume = {117},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-012-0650-y},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-012-0650-y},
	abstract = {Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Calvin, Katherine and Wise, Marshall and Clarke, Leon and Edmonds, Jae and Kyle, Page and Luckow, Patrick and Thomson, Allison},
	month = apr,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Method: Empirical and Process-Based, Sector: Adaptation, Sector: Agriculture, Tags Edited, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {545--560},
}

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.

@article{astrom_attributing_2013,
	title = {Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in {Stockholm}, {Sweden}},
	volume = {3},
	copyright = {2013 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2022},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2022},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Climate extremes are on the increase. Research into mortality from extremes of heat in Stockholm now shows that during the period 1980–2009 mortality was double that likely to have occurred without climate change. Moreover, the frequency of cold extremes also increased slightly, despite higher average winter temperatures, contributing to a small increase in mortality during the winter months.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {En},
	number = {12},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Åström, Daniel Oudin and Forsberg, Bertil and Ebi, Kristie L. and Rocklöv, Joacim},
	month = dec,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1050},
}

\textlessp\textgreaterClimate extremes are on the increase. Research into mortality from extremes of heat in Stockholm now shows that during the period 1980–2009 mortality was double that likely to have occurred without climate change. Moreover, the frequency of cold extremes also increased slightly, despite higher average winter temperatures, contributing to a small increase in mortality during the winter months.\textless/p\textgreater

@article{compean_death_2013,
	series = {International {Conference} {On} {Applied} {Economics} ({ICOAE}) 2013},
	title = {The {Death} {Effect} of {Severe} {Climate} {Variability}},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2212-5671},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212567113000245},
	doi = {10.1016/S2212-5671(13)00024-5},
	abstract = {Using data for all 2,454 municipalities of Mexico for the period 1980-2010, this paper analyzes the relationship between exposure to extreme temperatures and mortality rates. I find that severe heat increases mortality, while the health effect of severe cold is generally trivial. I show that exchanging one day with a temperature of 16-18°C for one day with temperatures higher than 30°C increases the crude mortality rate by 0.15 percentage points, a result robust to several model specifications. It is also found that the extreme heat effect on death is significantly more acute in rural regions, leading to increases of up to 0.2 percentage points vis-à-vis a 0.07-point increase in urban areas.},
	number = {Supplement C},
	urldate = {2017-11-09},
	journal = {Procedia Economics and Finance},
	author = {Compeán, Roberto Guerrero},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {182--191},
}

Using data for all 2,454 municipalities of Mexico for the period 1980-2010, this paper analyzes the relationship between exposure to extreme temperatures and mortality rates. I find that severe heat increases mortality, while the health effect of severe cold is generally trivial. I show that exchanging one day with a temperature of 16-18°C for one day with temperatures higher than 30°C increases the crude mortality rate by 0.15 percentage points, a result robust to several model specifications. It is also found that the extreme heat effect on death is significantly more acute in rural regions, leading to increases of up to 0.2 percentage points vis-à-vis a 0.07-point increase in urban areas.

@article{fang_impacts_2013,
	title = {Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality},
	volume = {121},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0847-8},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0847-8},
	abstract = {Climate change modulates surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), indirectly affecting premature mortality attributed to air pollution. We estimate the change in global premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) associated with changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 over the 21st century as a result of climate change. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality. Epidemiological concentration-response relationships are applied to estimate resulting changes in premature mortality and YLL. The effect of climate change on air quality is isolated by holding emissions of air pollutants constant while allowing climate to evolve over the 21st century according to a moderate projection of greenhouse gas emissions (A1B scenario). Resulting changes in 21st century climate alone lead to an increase in simulated PM2.5 concentrations globally, and to higher (lower) O3 concentrations over populated (remote) regions. Global annual premature mortality associated with chronic exposure to PM2.5 increases by approximately 100 thousand deaths (95 \% confidence interval, CI, of 66–130 thousand) with corresponding YLL increasing by nearly 900 thousand (95 \% CI, 576–1,128 thousand) years. The annual premature mortality due to respiratory disease associated with chronic O3 exposure increases by +6,300 deaths (95 \% CI, 1,600–10,400). This climate penalty indicates that stronger emission controls will be needed in the future to meet current air quality standards and to avoid higher health risks associated with climate change induced worsening of air quality over populated regions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-11-30},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Fang, Yuanyuan and Mauzerall, Denise L. and Liu, Junfeng and Fiore, Arlene M. and Horowitz, Larry W.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {239--253},
}

Climate change modulates surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), indirectly affecting premature mortality attributed to air pollution. We estimate the change in global premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) associated with changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 over the 21st century as a result of climate change. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality. Epidemiological concentration-response relationships are applied to estimate resulting changes in premature mortality and YLL. The effect of climate change on air quality is isolated by holding emissions of air pollutants constant while allowing climate to evolve over the 21st century according to a moderate projection of greenhouse gas emissions (A1B scenario). Resulting changes in 21st century climate alone lead to an increase in simulated PM2.5 concentrations globally, and to higher (lower) O3 concentrations over populated (remote) regions. Global annual premature mortality associated with chronic exposure to PM2.5 increases by approximately 100 thousand deaths (95 % confidence interval, CI, of 66–130 thousand) with corresponding YLL increasing by nearly 900 thousand (95 % CI, 576–1,128 thousand) years. The annual premature mortality due to respiratory disease associated with chronic O3 exposure increases by +6,300 deaths (95 % CI, 1,600–10,400). This climate penalty indicates that stronger emission controls will be needed in the future to meet current air quality standards and to avoid higher health risks associated with climate change induced worsening of air quality over populated regions.

@article{khanjani_temperature_2013,
	title = {Temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in desert climate. {A} case study of {Kerman}, {Iran}},
	volume = {10},
	copyright = {Copyright Dr Ali Akbari Sari, Director of The Commission for Accreditation \& Improvement of Iranian Medical Journals Jan 2013},
	issn = {17351979},
	url = {https://search.proquest.com/docview/1346345174/abstract/73A7B0AAF35C426CPQ/1},
	abstract = {Many studies have suggested that cardiovascular and respiratory disease mortality may change with fluctuations in temperature. In this study the relation between temperature and mortality has been studied in a city with desert climate. Four years data on daily temperature, cardiovascular, respiratory mortality and air pollution was acquired for Kerman, Iran. Time series, regression and correlation analyses were performed. Results showed an inverse relationship between mortality and temperature in Kerman, in which decreases in temperature were associated with increases in mortality. This pattern is similar to some foreign studies which show acclimatization of people living in southern warmer climates and less negative effects of warm temperatures. Among the pollutants only dust (p=0.003) and SO2 (p{\textless}0.001) showed a positive correlation with respiratory mortality. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]},
	language = {English},
	urldate = {2017-12-06},
	journal = {Iranian Journal of Environmental Health Science \& Engineering; Tehran},
	author = {Khanjani, Narges and Bahrampour, Abbas},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {1--6},
}

Many studies have suggested that cardiovascular and respiratory disease mortality may change with fluctuations in temperature. In this study the relation between temperature and mortality has been studied in a city with desert climate. Four years data on daily temperature, cardiovascular, respiratory mortality and air pollution was acquired for Kerman, Iran. Time series, regression and correlation analyses were performed. Results showed an inverse relationship between mortality and temperature in Kerman, in which decreases in temperature were associated with increases in mortality. This pattern is similar to some foreign studies which show acclimatization of people living in southern warmer climates and less negative effects of warm temperatures. Among the pollutants only dust (p=0.003) and SO2 (p\textless0.001) showed a positive correlation with respiratory mortality. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

@article{newbold_rapid_2013,
	title = {A rapid assessment for understanding the social cost of carbon},
	volume = {4},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Clim. Chang. Econ.},
	author = {Newbold, S.C. and Griffiths, C. and Moore, C. and Wolverton, A. and Kopits, E.},
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {1--40},
}

@article{otto_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon},
	volume = {8},
	url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024032/meta},
	doi = {doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024032},
	abstract = {The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8\%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	author = {Otto, Alexander and Todd, Benjamin J. and Bowerman, Niel and Frame, David J. and Allen, Myles R.},
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.

@article{oppenheimer_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate change impacts: accounting for the human response},
	volume = {117},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Climate change impacts},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-012-0571-9},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-012-0571-9},
	abstract = {The assessment of potential impacts of climate change is progressing from taxonomies and enumeration of the magnitude of potential direct effects on individuals, societies, species, and ecosystems according to a limited number of metrics toward a more integrated approach that also encompasses the vast range of human response to experience and risk. Recent advances are both conceptual and methodological, and include analysis of some consequences of climate change that were heretofore intractable. In this article, I review a selection of these developments and represent them through a handful of illustrative cases. A key characteristic of the emerging areas of interest is a focus on understanding how human responses to direct impacts of climate change may cause important indirect and sometimes distant impacts. This realization underscores the need to develop integrated approaches for assessing and modeling impacts in an evolving socioeconomic and policy context.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-07-25},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Oppenheimer, Michael},
	month = apr,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {439--449},
}

The assessment of potential impacts of climate change is progressing from taxonomies and enumeration of the magnitude of potential direct effects on individuals, societies, species, and ecosystems according to a limited number of metrics toward a more integrated approach that also encompasses the vast range of human response to experience and risk. Recent advances are both conceptual and methodological, and include analysis of some consequences of climate change that were heretofore intractable. In this article, I review a selection of these developments and represent them through a handful of illustrative cases. A key characteristic of the emerging areas of interest is a focus on understanding how human responses to direct impacts of climate change may cause important indirect and sometimes distant impacts. This realization underscores the need to develop integrated approaches for assessing and modeling impacts in an evolving socioeconomic and policy context.

@misc{nordhaus_dice_2013,
	title = {{DICE} {2013R}: {Introduction} and {User}’s {Manual}, {Second} {Edition}},
	url = {http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/documents/DICE_Manual_103113r2.pdf},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	author = {Nordhaus, William D. and Sztorc, Paul},
	month = oct,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

@incollection{nordhaus_integrated_2013,
	address = {Amsterdam, The Netherlands},
	title = {Integrated economic and climate modeling},
	booktitle = {Handbook of computable general equilibrium modeling},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	author = {Nordhaus, William},
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {1069--1131},
}

@book{nordhaus_climate_2013,
	address = {New Haven, Conn.},
	title = {Climate {Casino}: {Risk}, {Uncertainty}, and {Economics} for a {Warming} {World}, {The}},
	isbn = {978-0-300-21264-8},
	shorttitle = {The climate casino},
	abstract = {Climate change is profoundly altering our world in ways that pose major risks to human societies and natural systems. We have entered the Climate Casino and are rolling the global-warming dice, warns economist William Nordhaus. But there is still time to turn around and walk back out of the casino, and in this essential book the author explains how.
 
Bringing together all the important issues surrounding the climate debate, Nordhaus describes the science, economics, and politics involved—and the steps necessary to reduce the perils of global warming. Using language accessible to any concerned citizen and taking care to present different points of view fairly, he discusses the problem from start to finish: from the beginning, where warming originates in our personal energy use, to the end, where societies employ regulations or taxes or subsidies to slow the emissions of gases responsible for climate change.
 
Nordhaus offers a new analysis of why earlier policies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, failed to slow carbon dioxide emissions, how new approaches can succeed, and which policy tools will most effectively reduce emissions. In short, he clarifies a defining problem of our times and lays out the next critical steps for slowing the trajectory of global warming.},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Yale Univ. Press},
	author = {Nordhaus, William},
	year = {2013},
	note = {OCLC: 864625703},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

Climate change is profoundly altering our world in ways that pose major risks to human societies and natural systems. We have entered the Climate Casino and are rolling the global-warming dice, warns economist William Nordhaus. But there is still time to turn around and walk back out of the casino, and in this essential book the author explains how. Bringing together all the important issues surrounding the climate debate, Nordhaus describes the science, economics, and politics involved—and the steps necessary to reduce the perils of global warming. Using language accessible to any concerned citizen and taking care to present different points of view fairly, he discusses the problem from start to finish: from the beginning, where warming originates in our personal energy use, to the end, where societies employ regulations or taxes or subsidies to slow the emissions of gases responsible for climate change. Nordhaus offers a new analysis of why earlier policies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, failed to slow carbon dioxide emissions, how new approaches can succeed, and which policy tools will most effectively reduce emissions. In short, he clarifies a defining problem of our times and lays out the next critical steps for slowing the trajectory of global warming.

@book{national_research_council_u.s._abrupt_2013,
	address = {Washington, D.C},
	title = {Abrupt impacts of climate change: anticipating surprises},
	isbn = {978-0-309-28773-9},
	shorttitle = {Abrupt impacts of climate change},
	abstract = {Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior.

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.},
	publisher = {The National Academies Press},
	editor = {{National Research Council (U.S.)}},
	year = {2013},
	note = {OCLC: ocn866096685},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.

@article{murphy_basic_2013,
	title = {Some {Basic} {Economics} of {National} {Security}},
	volume = {103},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.103.3.508},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.103.3.508},
	abstract = {We define national security (NS) as public policies that protect the safety or welfare of a nation's citizens from substantial threats. NS capital provides societal insurance against widespread harm or catastrophe, so optimal NS investments may have very low expected rates of return. Investment targeted at extreme events (war) has spillovers, reducing potential harm in less threatening situations as well. Potential threats are highly uncertain, which raises the value of ex-post scalability of NS technologies. Higher probabilities of extreme events raise the demand for flexibility, so ex-post responses to threats are more elastic, but may reduce current precaution.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Murphy, Kevin M and Topel, Robert H},
	month = may,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {508--511},
}

We define national security (NS) as public policies that protect the safety or welfare of a nation's citizens from substantial threats. NS capital provides societal insurance against widespread harm or catastrophe, so optimal NS investments may have very low expected rates of return. Investment targeted at extreme events (war) has spillovers, reducing potential harm in less threatening situations as well. Potential threats are highly uncertain, which raises the value of ex-post scalability of NS technologies. Higher probabilities of extreme events raise the demand for flexibility, so ex-post responses to threats are more elastic, but may reduce current precaution.

@article{mora_projected_2013,
	title = {Projected {Timing} of {Climate} {Departure} from {Recent} {Variability}, {The}},
	volume = {502},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature12540},
	doi = {10.1038/nature12540},
	number = {7470},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Mora, Camilo and Frazier, Abby G. and Longman, Ryan J. and Dacks, Rachel S. and Walton, Maya M. and Tong, Eric J. and Sanchez, Joseph J. and Kaiser, Lauren R. and Stender, Yuko O. and Anderson, James M. and Ambrosino, Christine M. and Fernandez-Silva, Iria and Giuseffi, Louise M. and Giambelluca, Thomas W.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {183--187},
}

@article{millner_welfare_2013,
	title = {On welfare frameworks and catastrophic climate risks},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {00950696},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0095069612001209},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2012.09.006},
	abstract = {Recent theoretical work in the economics of climate change has suggested that climate policy is highly sensitive to ‘fat-tailed’ risks of catastrophic outcomes (Weitzman, 2009) [68]. Such risks are suggested to be an inevitable consequence of scientific uncertainty about the effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on climate. Criticisms of this controversial result fall into three categories: The first suggests that it may be irrelevant to cost benefit analysis of climate policy, the second challenges the fat-tails assumption, and the third questions the behavior of the utility function assumed in the result. This paper analyses these critiques and suggests that those in the first two categories have formal validity, but that they apply only to the restricted setup of the original result, which may be extended to address their concerns. They are thus ultimately unconvincing. Critiques in the third category are shown to be robust however they open up new ethical and empirical challenges for climate economics that have thus far been neglected—how should we ‘value’ catastrophes as a society? I demonstrate that applying results from social choice to this problem can lead to counterintuitive results, in which society values catastrophes as infinitely bad, even though each individual's utility function is bounded. Finally, I suggest that the welfare functions traditionally used in climate economics are ill-equipped to deal with climate catastrophes in which population size changes. Drawing on recent work in population ethics I propose an alternative welfare framework with normatively desirable properties, which has the effect of dampening the contribution of catastrophes to welfare.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-09-12},
	journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
	author = {Millner, Antony},
	month = mar,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {310--325},
}

Recent theoretical work in the economics of climate change has suggested that climate policy is highly sensitive to ‘fat-tailed’ risks of catastrophic outcomes (Weitzman, 2009) [68]. Such risks are suggested to be an inevitable consequence of scientific uncertainty about the effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on climate. Criticisms of this controversial result fall into three categories: The first suggests that it may be irrelevant to cost benefit analysis of climate policy, the second challenges the fat-tails assumption, and the third questions the behavior of the utility function assumed in the result. This paper analyses these critiques and suggests that those in the first two categories have formal validity, but that they apply only to the restricted setup of the original result, which may be extended to address their concerns. They are thus ultimately unconvincing. Critiques in the third category are shown to be robust however they open up new ethical and empirical challenges for climate economics that have thus far been neglected—how should we ‘value’ catastrophes as a society? I demonstrate that applying results from social choice to this problem can lead to counterintuitive results, in which society values catastrophes as infinitely bad, even though each individual's utility function is bounded. Finally, I suggest that the welfare functions traditionally used in climate economics are ill-equipped to deal with climate catastrophes in which population size changes. Drawing on recent work in population ethics I propose an alternative welfare framework with normatively desirable properties, which has the effect of dampening the contribution of catastrophes to welfare.

@article{marten_improving_2013,
	title = {Improving the assessment and valuation of climate change impacts for policy and regulatory analysis},
	volume = {117},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-012-0608-0},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-012-0608-0},
	abstract = {This article is part of a Special Issue on “Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis” edited by Alex L. Marten, Kate C. Shouse, and Robert E. Kopp.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Marten, Alex L. and Kopp, Robert E. and Shouse, Kate C. and Griffiths, Charles W. and Hodson, Elke L. and Kopits, Elizabeth and Mignone, Bryan K. and Moore, Chris and Newbold, Steve C. and Waldhoff, Stephanie and Wolverton, Ann},
	month = apr,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {433--438},
}

This article is part of a Special Issue on “Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis” edited by Alex L. Marten, Kate C. Shouse, and Robert E. Kopp.

@article{mares_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate {Change} and {Levels} of {Violence} in {Socially} {Disadvantaged} {Neighborhood} {Groups}},
	volume = {90},
	issn = {1099-3460, 1468-2869},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11524-013-9791-1},
	doi = {10.1007/s11524-013-9791-1},
	abstract = {The current study examines the link between climate change and neighborhood levels of violence using 20 years of monthly climatic and crime data from St. Louis, MO, USA. St. Louis census tracts are aggregated in neighborhood groups of similar levels of social disadvantage, after which each group is subjected to time series analysis. Findings suggest that neighborhoods with higher levels of social disadvantage are very likely to experience higher levels of violence as a result of anomalously warm temperatures. The 20 \% of most disadvantaged neighborhoods in St. Louis, MO, USA are predicted to experience over half of the climate change-related increase in cases of violence. These results provide further evidence that the health impacts of climate change are proportionally higher among populations that are already at high risk and underscore the need to comprehensively address climate change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {Journal of Urban Health},
	author = {Mares, Dennis},
	month = aug,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {768--783},
}

The current study examines the link between climate change and neighborhood levels of violence using 20 years of monthly climatic and crime data from St. Louis, MO, USA. St. Louis census tracts are aggregated in neighborhood groups of similar levels of social disadvantage, after which each group is subjected to time series analysis. Findings suggest that neighborhoods with higher levels of social disadvantage are very likely to experience higher levels of violence as a result of anomalously warm temperatures. The 20 % of most disadvantaged neighborhoods in St. Louis, MO, USA are predicted to experience over half of the climate change-related increase in cases of violence. These results provide further evidence that the health impacts of climate change are proportionally higher among populations that are already at high risk and underscore the need to comprehensively address climate change.

@article{litterman_what_2013,
	title = {What is the right price for carbon emissions?},
	volume = {36},
	url = {https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/regulation/2013/6/regulation-v36n2-1-1.pdf},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Regulation},
	author = {Litterman, Bob},
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {38--51},
}

@article{kopp_circumspection_2013,
	title = {Circumspection, reciprocity, and optimal carbon prices},
	volume = {120},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0858-5},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0858-5},
	abstract = {Drawing upon climate change damage specifications previously proposed in the literature that the authors have calibrated to a common level of damages at 2.5 C, the authors examine the effect upon the social cost of carbon (SCC) of varying damage specifications in a DICE-like integrated assessment model. They find that SCC estimates are highly sensitive to uncertainty in extrapolating damages to high temperatures at moderate-to-high levels of risk aversion, but only modestly so at low levels of risk aversion. While in the absence of risk aversion, all of the SCC estimates but one agree within a factor of two, with a moderate level of risk aversion included, the differences among estimates grow greatly. For example, one composite damage specification, combining elements of different literature-derived specifications and roughly taking into account calibration uncertainty, yields SCC values 32\% higher than the standard quadratic DICE damage function in the absence of risk aversion. With a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.4, however, the same uncertain specification yields SCC values almost triple those of the standard function. The authors conclude that failure to consider damages uncertainty and risk aversion jointly can lead to significant underestimation of the SCC.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-05-24},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Kopp, Robert E. and Mignone, Bryan K.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {831--843},
}

Drawing upon climate change damage specifications previously proposed in the literature that the authors have calibrated to a common level of damages at 2.5 C, the authors examine the effect upon the social cost of carbon (SCC) of varying damage specifications in a DICE-like integrated assessment model. They find that SCC estimates are highly sensitive to uncertainty in extrapolating damages to high temperatures at moderate-to-high levels of risk aversion, but only modestly so at low levels of risk aversion. While in the absence of risk aversion, all of the SCC estimates but one agree within a factor of two, with a moderate level of risk aversion included, the differences among estimates grow greatly. For example, one composite damage specification, combining elements of different literature-derived specifications and roughly taking into account calibration uncertainty, yields SCC values 32% higher than the standard quadratic DICE damage function in the absence of risk aversion. With a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.4, however, the same uncertain specification yields SCC values almost triple those of the standard function. The authors conclude that failure to consider damages uncertainty and risk aversion jointly can lead to significant underestimation of the SCC.

@misc{hsiang_destruction_2013,
	title = {Destruction, {Disinvestment}, and {Death}: {Economic} and {Human} {Losses} {Following} {Environmental} {Disaster}},
	shorttitle = {Goldman {School} of {Public} {Policy} {Working} {Paper}},
	url = {https://gspp.berkeley.edu/research/working-paper-series/destruction-disinvestment-and-death-economic-and-human-losses-following-env},
	abstract = {The immediate physical damages caused by environmental disasters are conspicuous and often the focus of media and government attention. In contrast, the nature and magnitude of post-disaster losses remain largely unknown because they are not easily observable. Here we exploit annual variation in the incidence of typhoons (West-Pacific hurricanes) to identify post-disaster losses within Filipino households. We find that unearned income and excess infant mortality in the year after typhoon exposure outnumber immediate damages and death tolls roughly 15-to-1. Typhoons destroy durable assets and depress incomes, leading to broad expenditure reductions achieved in part through disinvestments in health and human capital. Infant mortality mirrors these economic responses, and additional findings -- that only female infants are at risk, that sibling competition elevates risk, and that infants conceived after a typhoon are also at risk -- indicate that this excess mortality results from household decisions made while coping with post-disaster economic conditions. We estimate that these post-typhoon "economic deaths" constitute 13\% of the overall infant mortality rate in the Philippines. Taken together, these results indicate that economic and human losses due to environmental disaster may be an order of magnitude larger than previously thought and that adaptive decision-making may amplify, rather than dampen, disasters' social cost.},
	publisher = {University of California, Berkeley},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Anttila-Hughes, Jesse Keith},
	month = feb,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

The immediate physical damages caused by environmental disasters are conspicuous and often the focus of media and government attention. In contrast, the nature and magnitude of post-disaster losses remain largely unknown because they are not easily observable. Here we exploit annual variation in the incidence of typhoons (West-Pacific hurricanes) to identify post-disaster losses within Filipino households. We find that unearned income and excess infant mortality in the year after typhoon exposure outnumber immediate damages and death tolls roughly 15-to-1. Typhoons destroy durable assets and depress incomes, leading to broad expenditure reductions achieved in part through disinvestments in health and human capital. Infant mortality mirrors these economic responses, and additional findings – that only female infants are at risk, that sibling competition elevates risk, and that infants conceived after a typhoon are also at risk – indicate that this excess mortality results from household decisions made while coping with post-disaster economic conditions. We estimate that these post-typhoon "economic deaths" constitute 13% of the overall infant mortality rate in the Philippines. Taken together, these results indicate that economic and human losses due to environmental disaster may be an order of magnitude larger than previously thought and that adaptive decision-making may amplify, rather than dampen, disasters' social cost.

@article{jones_twenty-first-century_2013,
	title = {Twenty-{First}-{Century} {Compatible} {CO2} {Emissions} and {Airborne} {Fraction} {Simulated} by {CMIP5} {Earth} {System} {Models} under {Four} {Representative} {Concentration} {Pathways}},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {0894-8755, 1520-0442},
	url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00554.1},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00554.1},
	abstract = {The carbon cycle is a crucial Earth system component affecting climate and atmospheric composition. The response of natural carbon uptake to CO2 and climate change will determine anthropogenic emissions compatible with a target CO2 pathway. For phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), four future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and used as scenarios by state-of-the-art climate models, enabling quantification of compatible carbon emissions for the four scenarios by complex, process-based models. Here, the authors present results from 15 such Earth system GCMs for future changes in land and ocean carbon storage and the implications for anthropogenic emissions. The results are consistent with the underlying scenarios but show substantial model spread. Uncertainty in land carbon uptake due to differences among models is comparable with the spread across scenarios. Model estimates of historical fossil-fuel emissions agree well with reconstructions, and future projections for representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP4.5 are consistent with the IAMs. For high-end scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), GCMs simulate smaller compatible emissions than the IAMs, indicating a larger climate–carbon cycle feedback in the GCMs in these scenarios. For the RCP2.6 mitigation scenario, an average reduction of 50\% in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels is required but with very large model spread (14\%–96\%). The models also disagree on both the requirement for sustained negative emissions to achieve the RCP2.6 CO2 concentration and the success of this scenario to restrict global warming below 2°C. All models agree that the future airborne fraction depends strongly on the emissions profile with higher airborne fraction for higher emissions scenarios.},
	language = {en},
	number = {13},
	urldate = {2017-06-06},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Jones, Chris and Robertson, Eddy and Arora, Vivek and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Shevliakova, Elena and Bopp, Laurent and Brovkin, Victor and Hajima, Tomohiro and Kato, Etsushi and Kawamiya, Michio and Liddicoat, Spencer and Lindsay, Keith and Reick, Christian H. and Roelandt, Caroline and Segschneider, Joachim and Tjiputra, Jerry},
	month = jul,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {4398--4413},
}

The carbon cycle is a crucial Earth system component affecting climate and atmospheric composition. The response of natural carbon uptake to CO2 and climate change will determine anthropogenic emissions compatible with a target CO2 pathway. For phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), four future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and used as scenarios by state-of-the-art climate models, enabling quantification of compatible carbon emissions for the four scenarios by complex, process-based models. Here, the authors present results from 15 such Earth system GCMs for future changes in land and ocean carbon storage and the implications for anthropogenic emissions. The results are consistent with the underlying scenarios but show substantial model spread. Uncertainty in land carbon uptake due to differences among models is comparable with the spread across scenarios. Model estimates of historical fossil-fuel emissions agree well with reconstructions, and future projections for representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP4.5 are consistent with the IAMs. For high-end scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), GCMs simulate smaller compatible emissions than the IAMs, indicating a larger climate–carbon cycle feedback in the GCMs in these scenarios. For the RCP2.6 mitigation scenario, an average reduction of 50% in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels is required but with very large model spread (14%–96%). The models also disagree on both the requirement for sustained negative emissions to achieve the RCP2.6 CO2 concentration and the success of this scenario to restrict global warming below 2°C. All models agree that the future airborne fraction depends strongly on the emissions profile with higher airborne fraction for higher emissions scenarios.

@article{hsiang_quantifying_2013,
	title = {Quantifying the {Influence} of {Climate} on {Human} {Conflict}},
	volume = {341},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1235367},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1235367},
	abstract = {We conclude that there is more agreement across studies regarding the influence of climate on human conflict than has been recognized previously. Given the large potential changes in precipitation and temperature regimes projected for the coming decades—with locations throughout the inhabited world expected to warm by 2 to 4 SDs by 2050—amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical social impact of anthropogenic climate change in both low- and high-income countries.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6151},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Hsiang, S. M. and Burke, M. and Miguel, E.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1235367--1235367},
}

We conclude that there is more agreement across studies regarding the influence of climate on human conflict than has been recognized previously. Given the large potential changes in precipitation and temperature regimes projected for the coming decades—with locations throughout the inhabited world expected to warm by 2 to 4 SDs by 2050—amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical social impact of anthropogenic climate change in both low- and high-income countries.

@article{grinsted_projected_2013,
	title = {Projected {Atlantic} hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures},
	volume = {110},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1209980110},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1209980110},
	abstract = {Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10 competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sahel rainfall, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, radiative forcing, Main Development Region temperatures and its anomaly, global temperatures, and gridded temperatures). We find that gridded temperatures, Main Development Region, and global average temperature explain the observations best. The most extreme events are especially sensitive to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century. The increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic, Central America, and the Indian Ocean. Statistically downscaling 21st century warming patterns from six climate models results in a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature (using BNU-ESM, BCC-CSM-1.1, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and NorESM1-M).},
	language = {en},
	number = {14},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Grinsted, A. and Moore, J. C. and Jevrejeva, S.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {5369--5373},
}

Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10 competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sahel rainfall, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, radiative forcing, Main Development Region temperatures and its anomaly, global temperatures, and gridded temperatures). We find that gridded temperatures, Main Development Region, and global average temperature explain the observations best. The most extreme events are especially sensitive to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century. The increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic, Central America, and the Indian Ocean. Statistically downscaling 21st century warming patterns from six climate models results in a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature (using BNU-ESM, BCC-CSM-1.1, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and NorESM1-M).

@article{greenstone_developing_2013,
	title = {Developing a {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon} for {US} {Regulatory} {Analysis}: {A} {Methodology} and {Interpretation}},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {1750-6816, 1750-6824},
	shorttitle = {Developing a {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon} for {US} {Regulatory} {Analysis}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/reep/res015},
	doi = {10.1093/reep/res015},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-09-10},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	author = {Greenstone, M. and Kopits, E. and Wolverton, A.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {23--46},
}

@book{gollier_pricing_2013,
	address = {Princeton},
	title = {Pricing the planet's future: the economics of discounting in an uncertain world},
	isbn = {978-0-691-14876-2},
	shorttitle = {Pricing the planet's future},
	abstract = {Our path of economic development has generated a growing list of environmental problems including the disposal of nuclear waste, exhaustion of natural resources, loss of biodiversity, climate change, and polluted land, air, and water. All these environmental problems raise the crucial challenge of determining what we should and should not do for future generations. It is also central to other policy debates, including, for example, the appropriate level of public debt, investment in public infrastructure, investment in education, and the level of funding for pension benefits and for research and development. Today, the judge, the citizen, the politician, and the entrepreneur are concerned with the sustainability of our development. The objective of Pricing the Planet's Future is to provide a simple framework to organize the debate on what we should do for the future.

A key element of analysis by economists is the discount rate--the minimum rate of return required from an investment project to make it desirable to implement. Christian Gollier outlines the basic theory of the discount rate and the various arguments that favor using a smaller discount rate for more distant cash flows.

With principles that can be applied to many policy areas, Pricing the Planet's Future offers an ideal framework for dynamic problems and decision making.},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Gollier, Christian},
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

Our path of economic development has generated a growing list of environmental problems including the disposal of nuclear waste, exhaustion of natural resources, loss of biodiversity, climate change, and polluted land, air, and water. All these environmental problems raise the crucial challenge of determining what we should and should not do for future generations. It is also central to other policy debates, including, for example, the appropriate level of public debt, investment in public infrastructure, investment in education, and the level of funding for pension benefits and for research and development. Today, the judge, the citizen, the politician, and the entrepreneur are concerned with the sustainability of our development. The objective of Pricing the Planet's Future is to provide a simple framework to organize the debate on what we should do for the future. A key element of analysis by economists is the discount rate–the minimum rate of return required from an investment project to make it desirable to implement. Christian Gollier outlines the basic theory of the discount rate and the various arguments that favor using a smaller discount rate for more distant cash flows. With principles that can be applied to many policy areas, Pricing the Planet's Future offers an ideal framework for dynamic problems and decision making.

@article{dube_commodity_2013,
	title = {Commodity {Price} {Shocks} and {Civil} {Conflict}: {Evidence} from {Colombia}},
	volume = {80},
	issn = {0034-6527, 1467-937X},
	shorttitle = {Commodity {Price} {Shocks} and {Civil} {Conflict}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/restud/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/restud/rdt009},
	doi = {10.1093/restud/rdt009},
	abstract = {How do income shocks affect armed conflict? Theory suggests two opposite effects. If labour is used to appropriate resources violently, higher wages may lower conflict by reducing labour supplied to appropriation. This is the opportunity cost effect. Alternatively, a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation. This is the rapacity effect. Our article exploits exogenous price shocks in international commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in Colombia to assess how different income shocks affect conflict. We examine changes in the price of agricultural goods (which are labour intensive) as well as natural resources (which are not). We focus on Colombia's two largest exports, coffee and oil. We find that a sharp fall in coffee prices during the 1990s lowered wages and increased violence differentially in municipalities cultivating more coffee. This is consistent with the coffee shock inducing an opportunity cost effect. In contrast, a rise in oil prices increased both municipal revenue and violence differentially in the oil region. This is consistent with the oil shock inducing a rapacity effect. We also show that this pattern holds in six other agricultural and natural resource sectors, providing evidence that price shocks affect conflict in different directions depending on the type of the commodity.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-11-08},
	journal = {The Review of Economic Studies},
	author = {Dube, O. and Vargas, J. F.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {1384--1421},
}

How do income shocks affect armed conflict? Theory suggests two opposite effects. If labour is used to appropriate resources violently, higher wages may lower conflict by reducing labour supplied to appropriation. This is the opportunity cost effect. Alternatively, a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation. This is the rapacity effect. Our article exploits exogenous price shocks in international commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in Colombia to assess how different income shocks affect conflict. We examine changes in the price of agricultural goods (which are labour intensive) as well as natural resources (which are not). We focus on Colombia's two largest exports, coffee and oil. We find that a sharp fall in coffee prices during the 1990s lowered wages and increased violence differentially in municipalities cultivating more coffee. This is consistent with the coffee shock inducing an opportunity cost effect. In contrast, a rise in oil prices increased both municipal revenue and violence differentially in the oil region. This is consistent with the oil shock inducing a rapacity effect. We also show that this pattern holds in six other agricultural and natural resource sectors, providing evidence that price shocks affect conflict in different directions depending on the type of the commodity.

@article{bopp_multiple_2013,
	title = {Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with {CMIP5} models},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {1726-4189},
	shorttitle = {Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century},
	url = {http://www.biogeosciences.net/10/6225/2013/},
	doi = {10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013},
	abstract = {Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 (±0.72) °C, −0.33 (±0.003) pH unit, −3.45 (±0.44)\% and −8.6 (±7.9)\%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45) °C, −0.07 (±0.001) pH unit, −1.81 (±0.31)\% and −2.0 (±4.1)\%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface oxygen prompt us to continue inter-model comparisons to understand these model differences, while calling for caution when using the CMIP5 models to force regional impact models.},
	language = {en},
	number = {10},
	urldate = {2017-06-06},
	journal = {Biogeosciences},
	author = {Bopp, L. and Resplandy, L. and Orr, J. C. and Doney, S. C. and Dunne, J. P. and Gehlen, M. and Halloran, P. and Heinze, C. and Ilyina, T. and Séférian, R. and Tjiputra, J. and Vichi, M.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {6225--6245},
}

Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 (±0.72) °C, −0.33 (±0.003) pH unit, −3.45 (±0.44)% and −8.6 (±7.9)%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45) °C, −0.07 (±0.001) pH unit, −1.81 (±0.31)% and −2.0 (±4.1)%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface oxygen prompt us to continue inter-model comparisons to understand these model differences, while calling for caution when using the CMIP5 models to force regional impact models.

@article{bamber_expert_2013,
	title = {Expert {Judgement} {Assessment} of {Future} {Sea} {Level} {Rise} from the {Ice} {Sheets}, {An}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1778},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate1778},
	abstract = {A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Bamber, J. L. and Aspinall, W. P.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {424--427},
}

A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided.

@article{auffhammer_using_2013,
	title = {Using {Weather} {Data} and {Climate} {Model} {Output} in {Economic} {Analyses} of {Climate} {Change}},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {1750-6816, 1750-6824},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/reep/ret016},
	doi = {10.1093/reep/ret016},
	abstract = {Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of data sets available, and then we discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-11-21},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	author = {Auffhammer, M. and Hsiang, S. M. and Schlenker, W. and Sobel, A.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {181--198},
}

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of data sets available, and then we discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

@article{bishop_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate model dependence and the replicate {Earth} paradigm},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {0930-7575, 1432-0894},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1610-y},
	doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1610-y},
	abstract = {Multi-model ensembles are commonly used in climate prediction to create a set of independent estimates, and so better gauge the likelihood of particular outcomes and better quantify prediction uncertainty. Yet researchers share literature, datasets and model code—to what extent do different simulations constitute independent estimates? What is the relationship between model performance and independence? We show that error correlation provides a natural empirical basis for defining model dependence and derive a weighting strategy that accounts for dependence in experiments where the multi-model mean would otherwise be used. We introduce the “replicate Earth” ensemble interpretation framework, based on theoretically derived statistical relationships between ensembles of perfect models (replicate Earths) and observations. We transform an ensemble of (imperfect) climate projections into an ensemble whose mean and variance have the same statistical relationship to observations as an ensemble of replicate Earths. The approach can be used with multi-model ensembles that have varying numbers of simulations from different models, accounting for model dependence. We use HadCRUT3 data and the CMIP3 models to show that in out of sample tests, the transformed ensemble has an ensemble mean with significantly lower error and much flatter rank frequency histograms than the original ensemble.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Climate Dynamics},
	author = {Bishop, Craig H. and Abramowitz, Gab},
	month = aug,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {885--900},
}

Multi-model ensembles are commonly used in climate prediction to create a set of independent estimates, and so better gauge the likelihood of particular outcomes and better quantify prediction uncertainty. Yet researchers share literature, datasets and model code—to what extent do different simulations constitute independent estimates? What is the relationship between model performance and independence? We show that error correlation provides a natural empirical basis for defining model dependence and derive a weighting strategy that accounts for dependence in experiments where the multi-model mean would otherwise be used. We introduce the “replicate Earth” ensemble interpretation framework, based on theoretically derived statistical relationships between ensembles of perfect models (replicate Earths) and observations. We transform an ensemble of (imperfect) climate projections into an ensemble whose mean and variance have the same statistical relationship to observations as an ensemble of replicate Earths. The approach can be used with multi-model ensembles that have varying numbers of simulations from different models, accounting for model dependence. We use HadCRUT3 data and the CMIP3 models to show that in out of sample tests, the transformed ensemble has an ensemble mean with significantly lower error and much flatter rank frequency histograms than the original ensemble.

@article{arrow_determining_2013,
	title = {Determining {Benefits} and {Costs} for {Future} {Generations}},
	volume = {341},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1235665},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1235665},
	abstract = {In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also true of other policies, e.g., affecting nuclear waste disposal or the construction of long-lived infrastructure.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6144},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Arrow, K. and Cropper, M. and Gollier, C. and Groom, B. and Heal, G. and Newell, R. and Nordhaus, W. and Pindyck, R. and Pizer, W. and Portney, P. and Sterner, T. and Tol, R. S. J. and Weitzman, M.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {349--350},
}

In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also true of other policies, e.g., affecting nuclear waste disposal or the construction of long-lived infrastructure.

@article{altizer_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate {Change} and {Infectious} {Diseases}: {From} {Evidence} to a {Predictive} {Framework}},
	volume = {341},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	shorttitle = {Climate {Change} and {Infectious} {Diseases}},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1239401},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1239401},
	abstract = {Scientists have long predicted large-scale responses of infectious diseases to climate change, giving rise to a polarizing debate, especially concerning human pathogens for which socioeconomic drivers and control measures can limit the detection of climate-mediated changes. Climate change has already increased the occurrence of diseases in some natural and agricultural systems, but in many cases, outcomes depend on the form of climate change and details of the host-pathogen system. In this review, we highlight research progress and gaps that have emerged during the past decade and develop a predictive framework that integrates knowledge from ecophysiology and community ecology with modeling approaches. Future work must continue to anticipate and monitor pathogen biodiversity and disease trends in natural ecosystems and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of climate-driven disease emergence.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6145},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Altizer, S. and Ostfeld, R. S. and Johnson, P. T. J. and Kutz, S. and Harvell, C. D.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {514--519},
}

Scientists have long predicted large-scale responses of infectious diseases to climate change, giving rise to a polarizing debate, especially concerning human pathogens for which socioeconomic drivers and control measures can limit the detection of climate-mediated changes. Climate change has already increased the occurrence of diseases in some natural and agricultural systems, but in many cases, outcomes depend on the form of climate change and details of the host-pathogen system. In this review, we highlight research progress and gaps that have emerged during the past decade and develop a predictive framework that integrates knowledge from ecophysiology and community ecology with modeling approaches. Future work must continue to anticipate and monitor pathogen biodiversity and disease trends in natural ecosystems and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of climate-driven disease emergence.

@article{ackerman_cred:_2013,
	title = {{CRED}: {A} new model of climate and development},
	volume = {85},
	issn = {09218009},
	shorttitle = {{CRED}},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800911001546},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.04.006},
	abstract = {This paper describes a new model, Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED), which is designed to analyze the economics of climate and development choices. Its principal innovations are the treatment of global equity, calculation of the optimum interregional flows of resources, and use of McKinsey marginal abatement cost curves to project the cost of mitigation.

The unconstrained, optimal climate policy in CRED involves very large capital flows from high-income to developing countries, to an extent that might be considered politically unrealistic. Under more realistic constraints, climate outcomes are generally worse; climate stabilization requires either moderate capital flows to developing countries, or a very low discount rate. In CRED, more equitable scenarios have better climate outcomes; the challenge of climate policy is to persuade high-income countries to accept the need for both international equity and climate protection.

The paper ends with an agenda for further model development. A technical appendix describes the model relationships and parameters in greater detail.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Ecological Economics},
	author = {Ackerman, Frank and Stanton, Elizabeth A. and Bueno, Ramon},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {166--176},
}

This paper describes a new model, Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED), which is designed to analyze the economics of climate and development choices. Its principal innovations are the treatment of global equity, calculation of the optimum interregional flows of resources, and use of McKinsey marginal abatement cost curves to project the cost of mitigation. The unconstrained, optimal climate policy in CRED involves very large capital flows from high-income to developing countries, to an extent that might be considered politically unrealistic. Under more realistic constraints, climate outcomes are generally worse; climate stabilization requires either moderate capital flows to developing countries, or a very low discount rate. In CRED, more equitable scenarios have better climate outcomes; the challenge of climate policy is to persuade high-income countries to accept the need for both international equity and climate protection. The paper ends with an agenda for further model development. A technical appendix describes the model relationships and parameters in greater detail.

@article{roberts_identifying_2013,
	title = {Identifying {Supply} and {Demand} {Elasticities} of {Agricultural} {Commodities}: {Implications} for the {US} {Ethanol} {Mandate}},
	volume = {103},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	shorttitle = {Identifying {Supply} and {Demand} {Elasticities} of {Agricultural} {Commodities}},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.103.6.2265},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.103.6.2265},
	abstract = {We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters. In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 Renewable Fuel Standard on commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus for the four basic staples: corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Prices increase 20 percent if one-third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock, with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 percent.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2017-09-28},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Roberts, Michael J and Schlenker, Wolfram},
	month = oct,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {2265--2295},
}

We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters. In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 Renewable Fuel Standard on commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus for the four basic staples: corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Prices increase 20 percent if one-third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock, with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 percent.

@article{reilly_valuing_2013,
	title = {Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the {MIT} {IGSM}},
	volume = {117},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-012-0635-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-012-0635-x},
	abstract = {We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth’s physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. As examples, we consider effects on agriculture and human health. Progress requires a careful understanding of the chain of physical changes—global and regional temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification, polar ice melting. We relate those changes to other physical and biological variables that help people understand risks to factors relevant to their daily lives—crop yield, food prices, premature death, flooding or drought events, land use change. Finally, we investigate how societies may adapt, or not, to these changes and how the combination of measures to adapt or to live with losses will affect the economy. Valuation and assessment of market impacts can play an important role, but we must recognize the limits of efforts to value impacts where deep uncertainty does not allow a description of the causal chain of effects that can be described, much less assigned a likelihood. A mixed approach of valuing impacts, evaluating physical and biological effects, and working to better describe uncertainties in the earth system can contribute to the social dialogue needed to achieve consensus on the level and type of mitigation and adaptation actions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Reilly, John and Paltsev, Sergey and Strzepek, Ken and Selin, Noelle E. and Cai, Yongxia and Nam, Kyung-Min and Monier, Erwan and Dutkiewicz, Stephanie and Scott, Jeffery and Webster, Mort and Sokolov, Andrei},
	month = apr,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {561--573},
}

We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth’s physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. As examples, we consider effects on agriculture and human health. Progress requires a careful understanding of the chain of physical changes—global and regional temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification, polar ice melting. We relate those changes to other physical and biological variables that help people understand risks to factors relevant to their daily lives—crop yield, food prices, premature death, flooding or drought events, land use change. Finally, we investigate how societies may adapt, or not, to these changes and how the combination of measures to adapt or to live with losses will affect the economy. Valuation and assessment of market impacts can play an important role, but we must recognize the limits of efforts to value impacts where deep uncertainty does not allow a description of the causal chain of effects that can be described, much less assigned a likelihood. A mixed approach of valuing impacts, evaluating physical and biological effects, and working to better describe uncertainties in the earth system can contribute to the social dialogue needed to achieve consensus on the level and type of mitigation and adaptation actions.

@article{pindyck_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate {Change} {Policy}: {What} {Do} the {Models} {Tell} {Us}?},
	volume = {51},
	issn = {0022-0515},
	shorttitle = {Climate {Change} {Policy}},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jel.51.3.860},
	doi = {10.1257/jel.51.3.860},
	abstract = {Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g., the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models' descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the SCC, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-07-25},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Literature},
	author = {Pindyck, Robert S},
	month = sep,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {860--872},
}

Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g., the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models' descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the SCC, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading.

@article{schlenker_u.s._2013,
	title = {U.{S}. maize adaptability},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1959},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate1959},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2017-07-27},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Schlenker, Wolfram and Roberts, Michael J. and Lobell, David B.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {690--691},
}

@article{zhou_effect_2013,
	title = {Effect of {Global} {Climate} {Change}, {Population} {Distribution}, and {Climate} {Mitigation} on {Building} {Energy} {Use} in the {U}.{S}. and {China}, {The}},
	volume = {119},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x},
	abstract = {Climate change will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate change on heating and cooling demands requires taking into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time, but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself. In this study, we explore the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling requirement by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days (HDD/CDDs) for both reference (no-policy) and 550 ppmv CO2 concentration pathways built from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) output and three scenarios of gridded population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China are then explored by using the results of HDD/CDDs as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The results across the modeled changes in climate and population distributions indicate that unabated climate change would cause building sector’s final energy consumption to decrease modestly (6 \% decrease or less depending on climate models) in both the U.S. and China by the end of the century as decreased heating consumption more than offsets increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, global climate change virtually has negligible effect on total CO2 emissions in the buildings sector in both countries. The results also indicate more substantial implications for the fuel mix with increases in electricity and decreases in other fuels, which may be consistent with climate mitigation goals. The variation in results across all scenarios due to variation of population distribution is smaller than variation due to the use of different climate models.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-06-10},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Zhou, Yuyu and Eom, Jiyong and Clarke, Leon},
	month = aug,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {979--992},
}

Climate change will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate change on heating and cooling demands requires taking into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time, but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself. In this study, we explore the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling requirement by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days (HDD/CDDs) for both reference (no-policy) and 550 ppmv CO2 concentration pathways built from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) output and three scenarios of gridded population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China are then explored by using the results of HDD/CDDs as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The results across the modeled changes in climate and population distributions indicate that unabated climate change would cause building sector’s final energy consumption to decrease modestly (6 % decrease or less depending on climate models) in both the U.S. and China by the end of the century as decreased heating consumption more than offsets increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, global climate change virtually has negligible effect on total CO2 emissions in the buildings sector in both countries. The results also indicate more substantial implications for the fuel mix with increases in electricity and decreases in other fuels, which may be consistent with climate mitigation goals. The variation in results across all scenarios due to variation of population distribution is smaller than variation due to the use of different climate models.

@misc{noauthor_technical_2013,
	title = {Technical {Support} {Document}: {Technical} {Update} of the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon} for {Regulatory} {Impact} {Analysis} {Under} {Executive} {Order} 12866},
	url = {https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2013/11/26/2013-28242/technical-support-document-technical-update-of-the-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulatory-impact},
	urldate = {2017-07-17},
	publisher = {Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon},
	month = nov,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

@article{tir_weathering_2012,
	title = {Weathering climate change: {Can} institutions mitigate international water conflict?},
	volume = {49},
	shorttitle = {Weathering climate change},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Tir, Jaroslav and Stinnett, Douglas M.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {211--225},
}

@article{theisen_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate wars? {Assessing} the claim that drought breeds conflict},
	volume = {36},
	shorttitle = {Climate wars?},
	number = {3},
	journal = {International Security},
	author = {Theisen, Ole Magnus and Holtermann, Helge and Buhaug, Halvard},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {79--106},
}

@article{theisen_climate_2012-1,
	title = {Climate clashes? {Weather} variability, land pressure, and organized violence in {Kenya}, 1989–2004},
	volume = {49},
	shorttitle = {Climate clashes?},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Journal of peace research},
	author = {Theisen, Ole Magnus},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {81--96},
}

@article{slettebak_dont_2012,
	title = {Don’t blame the weather! {Climate}-related natural disasters and civil conflict},
	volume = {49},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Slettebak, Rune T.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {163--176},
}

@article{selby_water_2012,
	title = {Water scarcity, conflict, and migration: a comparative analysis and reappraisal},
	volume = {30},
	shorttitle = {Water scarcity, conflict, and migration},
	number = {6},
	journal = {Environment and planning C: government and policy},
	author = {Selby, Jan and Hoffmann, Clemens},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {997--1014},
}

@article{sekhri_dowry_2012,
	title = {Dowry deaths: {Consumption} smoothing in response to climate variability in {India}},
	shorttitle = {Dowry deaths},
	journal = {Unpublished manuscript},
	author = {Sekhri, Sheetal and Storeygard, Adam},
	year = {2012},
}

@incollection{rowhani_malnutrition_2012,
	title = {Malnutrition and {Conflict} in {Eastern} {Africa}: {Impacts} of {Resource} {Variability} on {Human} {Security}},
	shorttitle = {Malnutrition and {Conflict} in {Eastern} {Africa}},
	booktitle = {Climate {Change}, {Human} {Security} and {Violent} {Conflict}},
	publisher = {Springer},
	author = {Rowhani, Pedram and Degomme, Olivier and Guha-Sapir, Debarati and Lambin, Eric F.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {559--571},
}

@article{raleigh_come_2012,
	title = {Come rain or shine: {An} analysis of conflict and climate variability in {East} {Africa}},
	volume = {49},
	shorttitle = {Come rain or shine},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Journal of peace research},
	author = {Raleigh, Clionadh and Kniveton, Dominic},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {51--64},
}

@article{oloughlin_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate variability and conflict risk in {East} {Africa}, 1990–2009},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {O’Loughlin, John and Witmer, Frank DW and Linke, Andrew M. and Laing, Arlene and Gettelman, Andrew and Dudhia, Jimy},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {201205130},
}

@article{koubi_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict},
	volume = {49},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Journal of peace research},
	author = {Koubi, Vally and Bernauer, Thomas and Kalbhenn, Anna and Spilker, Gabriele},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {113--127},
}

@article{kennett_development_2012,
	title = {Development and disintegration of {Maya} political systems in response to climate change},
	volume = {338},
	number = {6108},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Kennett, Douglas J. and Breitenbach, Sebastian FM and Aquino, Valorie V. and Asmerom, Yemane and Awe, Jaime and Baldini, James UL and Bartlein, Patrick and Culleton, Brendan J. and Ebert, Claire and Jazwa, Christopher},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {788--791},
}

@article{kennett_development_2012-1,
	title = {Development and disintegration of {Maya} political systems in response to climate change},
	volume = {338},
	number = {6108},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Kennett, Douglas J. and Breitenbach, Sebastian FM and Aquino, Valorie V. and Asmerom, Yemane and Awe, Jaime and Baldini, James UL and Bartlein, Patrick and Culleton, Brendan J. and Ebert, Claire and Jazwa, Christopher},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {788--791},
}

@article{hendrix_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in {Africa}},
	volume = {49},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Journal of peace research},
	author = {Hendrix, Cullen S. and Salehyan, Idean},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {35--50},
}

@article{halden_call_2012,
	title = {A call for hermeneutical perspectives on climate change and conflict: the case of {Ethiopia} and {Eritrea}},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1581-1980},
	shorttitle = {A call for hermeneutical perspectives on climate change and conflict},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1057/jird.2011.14},
	doi = {10.1057/jird.2011.14},
	abstract = {Research on climate change and conflict has been conducted in ways that may lead us to overlook risks of conflicts and miss opportunities to prevent them. In response, this article formulates an analytical framework based on hermeneutical perspectives on social action. The main argument is that climate factors are not the main drivers of conflict under conditions of climate change. Instead, the central mechanisms are how actors interpret their historical experiences and roles as guides for future actions and how international structures shape the scope of action in a constitutive fashion. Previous research has tended to construct the past as an objective assemblage of occurrences. However, the past can never be an ‘objective’ series of events and causal connections. Actors always interpret the past and construct it as meaning-laden history. History, in turn, is fundamentally ambiguous; it can be constructed as a story that has to be continued or one that needs to be broken with. An analysis of the relation between Ethiopia and Eritrea illustrates the theoretical framework. It concludes that despite their past enmity, there is no imminent risk of conflict in connection with climate change but strong reasons for both actors to maintain the status quo.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-10-07},
	journal = {Journal of International Relations and Development},
	author = {Haldén, Peter},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Horn of Africa, causation, climate change, conflict, structural IR, systems theory},
	pages = {1--30},
}

Research on climate change and conflict has been conducted in ways that may lead us to overlook risks of conflicts and miss opportunities to prevent them. In response, this article formulates an analytical framework based on hermeneutical perspectives on social action. The main argument is that climate factors are not the main drivers of conflict under conditions of climate change. Instead, the central mechanisms are how actors interpret their historical experiences and roles as guides for future actions and how international structures shape the scope of action in a constitutive fashion. Previous research has tended to construct the past as an objective assemblage of occurrences. However, the past can never be an ‘objective’ series of events and causal connections. Actors always interpret the past and construct it as meaning-laden history. History, in turn, is fundamentally ambiguous; it can be constructed as a story that has to be continued or one that needs to be broken with. An analysis of the relation between Ethiopia and Eritrea illustrates the theoretical framework. It concludes that despite their past enmity, there is no imminent risk of conflict in connection with climate change but strong reasons for both actors to maintain the status quo.

@article{gartzke_could_2012,
	title = {Could climate change precipitate peace?},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {0022-3433},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311427342},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343311427342},
	abstract = {Growing interest in the social consequences of climate change has fueled speculation that global warming could lead to an increase in various forms of political violence. This article examines the effects of climate change on international conflict subsequent to the onset of European industrialization. Surprisingly, analysis at the system level suggests that global warming is associated with a reduction in interstate conflict. This naive relationship is suspect, however, as the increased consumption of carbon-based fuels is itself associated with changing patterns of politics and prosperity. In particular, economic development has been viewed as a cause of both climate change and interstate peace. Incorporating measures of development, democracy, cross-border trade, and international institutions reveals that systemic trends toward peace are actually best accounted for by the increase in average international income. The results imply that climate change, which poses a number of critical challenges for citizens and policymakers, need not be characterized as fundamentally a security issue, though climate change may have important security implications on the periphery of world politics. The analysis here also suggests that efforts to curb climate change should pay particular attention to encouraging clean development among middle-income states, as these countries are the most conflict prone. Ironically, stagnating economic development in middle-income states caused by efforts to combat climate change could actually realize fears of climate-induced warfare.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Gartzke, Erik},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	pages = {177--192},
}

Growing interest in the social consequences of climate change has fueled speculation that global warming could lead to an increase in various forms of political violence. This article examines the effects of climate change on international conflict subsequent to the onset of European industrialization. Surprisingly, analysis at the system level suggests that global warming is associated with a reduction in interstate conflict. This naive relationship is suspect, however, as the increased consumption of carbon-based fuels is itself associated with changing patterns of politics and prosperity. In particular, economic development has been viewed as a cause of both climate change and interstate peace. Incorporating measures of development, democracy, cross-border trade, and international institutions reveals that systemic trends toward peace are actually best accounted for by the increase in average international income. The results imply that climate change, which poses a number of critical challenges for citizens and policymakers, need not be characterized as fundamentally a security issue, though climate change may have important security implications on the periphery of world politics. The analysis here also suggests that efforts to curb climate change should pay particular attention to encouraging clean development among middle-income states, as these countries are the most conflict prone. Ironically, stagnating economic development in middle-income states caused by efforts to combat climate change could actually realize fears of climate-induced warfare.

@article{gamble_temperature_2012,
	title = {Temperature and {Violent} {Crime} in {Dallas}, {Texas}: {Relationships} and {Implications} of {Climate} {Change}},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {1936-900X},
	shorttitle = {Temperature and {Violent} {Crime} in {Dallas}, {Texas}},
	url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3415828/},
	doi = {10.5811/westjem.2012.3.11746},
	abstract = {Introduction
To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To address these questions, we examined the relationship between daily ambient temperatures and daily incidents of violent crime in Dallas, Texas from 1993–1999.

Methods
We analyzed the relationships between daily fluctuations in ambient temperature, other meteorological and temporal variables, and rates of daily violent crime using time series piece-wise regression and plots of daily data. Violent crimes, including aggravated assault, homicide, and sexual assault, were analyzed.

Results
We found that daily mean ambient temperature is related in a curvilinear fashion to daily rates of violent crime with a positive and increasing relationship between temperature and aggravated crime that moderates beyond temperatures of 80°F and then turns negative beyond 90°F.

Conclusion
While some have characterized the relationship between temperature and violent crime as a continually increasing linear function, leaving open the possibility that aggravated crime will increase in a warmer climate, we conclude that the relationship in Dallas is not linear, but moderates and turns negative at high ambient temperatures. We posit that higher temperatures may encourage people to seek shelter in cooler indoor spaces, and that street crime and other crimes of opportunity are subsequently decreased. This finding suggests that the higher ambient temperatures expected with climate change may result in marginal shifts in violent crime in the short term, but are not likely to be accompanied by markedly higher rates of violent crime and associated increased incidence of injury and death. Additional studies are indicated, across cities at varying latitudes that experience a range of daily ambient temperatures.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Western Journal of Emergency Medicine},
	author = {Gamble, Janet L. and Hess, Jeremy J.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2012},
	pmid = {22900121},
	pmcid = {PMC3415828},
	pages = {239--246},
}

Introduction To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To address these questions, we examined the relationship between daily ambient temperatures and daily incidents of violent crime in Dallas, Texas from 1993–1999. Methods We analyzed the relationships between daily fluctuations in ambient temperature, other meteorological and temporal variables, and rates of daily violent crime using time series piece-wise regression and plots of daily data. Violent crimes, including aggravated assault, homicide, and sexual assault, were analyzed. Results We found that daily mean ambient temperature is related in a curvilinear fashion to daily rates of violent crime with a positive and increasing relationship between temperature and aggravated crime that moderates beyond temperatures of 80°F and then turns negative beyond 90°F. Conclusion While some have characterized the relationship between temperature and violent crime as a continually increasing linear function, leaving open the possibility that aggravated crime will increase in a warmer climate, we conclude that the relationship in Dallas is not linear, but moderates and turns negative at high ambient temperatures. We posit that higher temperatures may encourage people to seek shelter in cooler indoor spaces, and that street crime and other crimes of opportunity are subsequently decreased. This finding suggests that the higher ambient temperatures expected with climate change may result in marginal shifts in violent crime in the short term, but are not likely to be accompanied by markedly higher rates of violent crime and associated increased incidence of injury and death. Additional studies are indicated, across cities at varying latitudes that experience a range of daily ambient temperatures.

@article{fjelde_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate triggers: {Rainfall} anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in {Sub}-{Saharan} {Africa}},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0962-6298},
	shorttitle = {Climate triggers},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629812001072},
	doi = {10.1016/j.polgeo.2012.08.004},
	abstract = {The mounting evidence for climate change has put the security implications of increased climate variability high on the agenda of policymakers. However, several years of research have produced no consensus regarding whether climate variability increases the risk of armed conflict. Many have suggested that instead of outright civil war, climate variability is likely to heighten the risk of communal conflict. In particular, erratic rainfall, which reduces the availability of water and arable land, could create incentives for violent attacks against other communities to secure access to scarce resources. Yet, whether groups resort to violence in the face of environmentally induced hardship is likely to depend on the availability of alternative coping mechanisms, for example through market transfers or state accommodation. This suggests that the effect of rainfall anomalies on communal conflict will be stronger in the presence of economic and political marginalization. We evaluate these arguments statistically, utilizing a disaggregated dataset combining rainfall data with geo-referenced events data on the occurrence of communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2008. Our results suggest that large negative deviations in rainfall from the historical norm are associated with a higher risk of communal conflict. There is some evidence that the effect of rainfall shortages on the risk of communal conflict is amplified in regions inhabited by politically excluded ethno-political groups.},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Political Geography},
	author = {Fjelde, Hanne and von Uexkull, Nina},
	month = sep,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Armed conflict, Climate change, Communal conflict, Environmental security, Rainfall, Sub-Saharan Africa},
	pages = {444--453},
}

The mounting evidence for climate change has put the security implications of increased climate variability high on the agenda of policymakers. However, several years of research have produced no consensus regarding whether climate variability increases the risk of armed conflict. Many have suggested that instead of outright civil war, climate variability is likely to heighten the risk of communal conflict. In particular, erratic rainfall, which reduces the availability of water and arable land, could create incentives for violent attacks against other communities to secure access to scarce resources. Yet, whether groups resort to violence in the face of environmentally induced hardship is likely to depend on the availability of alternative coping mechanisms, for example through market transfers or state accommodation. This suggests that the effect of rainfall anomalies on communal conflict will be stronger in the presence of economic and political marginalization. We evaluate these arguments statistically, utilizing a disaggregated dataset combining rainfall data with geo-referenced events data on the occurrence of communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2008. Our results suggest that large negative deviations in rainfall from the historical norm are associated with a higher risk of communal conflict. There is some evidence that the effect of rainfall shortages on the risk of communal conflict is amplified in regions inhabited by politically excluded ethno-political groups.

@article{dell_temperature_2012,
	title = {Temperature shocks and economic growth: {Evidence} from the last half century},
	volume = {4},
	shorttitle = {Temperature shocks and economic growth},
	number = {3},
	journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics},
	author = {Dell, Melissa and Jones, Benjamin F. and Olken, Benjamin A.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {66--95},
}

@article{danjou_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate impacts on human settlement and agricultural activities in northern {Norway} revealed through sediment biogeochemistry},
	volume = {109},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/109/50/20332},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1212730109},
	abstract = {Disentangling the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the environment is a major challenge in paleoenvironmental research. Here, we used fecal sterols and other biogeochemical compounds in lake sediments from northern Norway to identify both natural and anthropogenic signals of environmental change during the late Holocene. The area was first occupied by humans and their grazing animals at ∼2,250 ± 75 calendar years before 1950 AD (calendar years before present). The arrival of humans is indicated by an abrupt increase in coprostanol (and its epimer epicoprostanol) in the sediments and an associated increase in 5β-stigmastanol (and 5β-epistigmastanol), which resulted from human and animal feces washing into the lake. Human settlement was accompanied by an abrupt increase in landscape fires (indicated by the rise in pyrolytic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) and a decline in woodland (registered by a change in n-alkane chain lengths from leaf waxes), accelerating a process that began earlier in the Holocene. Human activity and associated landscape changes in the region over the last two millennia were mainly driven by summer temperatures, as indicated by independent tree-ring reconstructions, although there were periods when socioeconomic factors played an equally important role. In this study, fecal sterols in lake sediments have been used to provide a record of human occupancy through time. This approach may be useful in many archeological studies, both to confirm the presence of humans and grazing animals, and to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural factors that have influenced the environment in the past.},
	language = {en},
	number = {50},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {D’Anjou, Robert M. and Bradley, Raymond S. and Balascio, Nicholas L. and Finkelstein, David B.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2012},
	pmid = {23185025},
	keywords = {biomarkers, geoarchaeology, paleoclimate, paleolimnology},
	pages = {20332--20337},
}

Disentangling the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the environment is a major challenge in paleoenvironmental research. Here, we used fecal sterols and other biogeochemical compounds in lake sediments from northern Norway to identify both natural and anthropogenic signals of environmental change during the late Holocene. The area was first occupied by humans and their grazing animals at ∼2,250 ± 75 calendar years before 1950 AD (calendar years before present). The arrival of humans is indicated by an abrupt increase in coprostanol (and its epimer epicoprostanol) in the sediments and an associated increase in 5β-stigmastanol (and 5β-epistigmastanol), which resulted from human and animal feces washing into the lake. Human settlement was accompanied by an abrupt increase in landscape fires (indicated by the rise in pyrolytic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) and a decline in woodland (registered by a change in n-alkane chain lengths from leaf waxes), accelerating a process that began earlier in the Holocene. Human activity and associated landscape changes in the region over the last two millennia were mainly driven by summer temperatures, as indicated by independent tree-ring reconstructions, although there were periods when socioeconomic factors played an equally important role. In this study, fecal sterols in lake sediments have been used to provide a record of human occupancy through time. This approach may be useful in many archeological studies, both to confirm the presence of humans and grazing animals, and to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural factors that have influenced the environment in the past.

@article{burke_economic_2012,
	title = {Economic growth and political survival},
	volume = {12},
	number = {1},
	journal = {The BE Journal of Macroeconomics},
	author = {Burke, Paul J.},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
}

@article{bernauer_water-related_2012,
	title = {Water-related intrastate conflict and cooperation ({WARICC}): a new event dataset},
	volume = {38},
	shorttitle = {Water-related intrastate conflict and cooperation ({WARICC})},
	number = {4},
	journal = {International Interactions},
	author = {Bernauer, Thomas and Böhmelt, Tobias and Buhaug, Halvard and Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Tribaldos, Theresa and Weibust, Eivind Berg and Wischnath, Gerdis},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {529--545},
}

@article{adano_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in {Kenya}’s drylands},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {0022-3433},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311427344},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343311427344},
	abstract = {Many regions that are endowed with scarce natural resources such as arable land and water, and which are remote from a central government, suffer from violence and ethnic strife. A number of studies have looked at the convergence of economic, political and ecological marginality in several African countries. However, there is limited empirical study on the role of violence in pastoral livelihoods across ecological and geographical locations. Yet, case studies focusing on livelihood and poverty issues could inform us about violent behaviour as collective action or as individual decisions, and to what extent such decisions are informed or explained by specific climatic conditions. Several case studies point out that violence is indeed an enacted behaviour, rooted in culture and an accepted form of interaction. This article critically discusses the relevance of geographical and climatic parameters in explaining the connection between poverty and violent conflicts in Kenya’s pastoral areas. These issues are considered vis-à-vis the role institutional arrangements play in preventing violent conflict over natural resources from occurring or getting out of hand. The article uses long-term historical data, archival information and a number of fieldwork sources. The results indicate that the context of violence does not deny its agency in explanation of conflicts, but the institutional set-up may ultimately explain the occurrence of the resource curse.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-10-03},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Adano, Wario R and Dietz, Ton and Witsenburg, Karen and Zaal, Fred},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {65--80},
}

Many regions that are endowed with scarce natural resources such as arable land and water, and which are remote from a central government, suffer from violence and ethnic strife. A number of studies have looked at the convergence of economic, political and ecological marginality in several African countries. However, there is limited empirical study on the role of violence in pastoral livelihoods across ecological and geographical locations. Yet, case studies focusing on livelihood and poverty issues could inform us about violent behaviour as collective action or as individual decisions, and to what extent such decisions are informed or explained by specific climatic conditions. Several case studies point out that violence is indeed an enacted behaviour, rooted in culture and an accepted form of interaction. This article critically discusses the relevance of geographical and climatic parameters in explaining the connection between poverty and violent conflicts in Kenya’s pastoral areas. These issues are considered vis-à-vis the role institutional arrangements play in preventing violent conflict over natural resources from occurring or getting out of hand. The article uses long-term historical data, archival information and a number of fieldwork sources. The results indicate that the context of violence does not deny its agency in explanation of conflicts, but the institutional set-up may ultimately explain the occurrence of the resource curse.

@article{bergholt_climate-related_2012,
	title = {Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {0022-3433},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311426167},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343311426167},
	abstract = {Global warming is expected to make the climate warmer, wetter, and wilder. It is predicted that such climate change will increase the severity and frequency of climate-related disasters like flash floods, surges, cyclones, and severe storms. This article uses econometric methods to study the consequences of climate-induced natural disasters on economic growth, and how these disasters are linked to the onset of armed civil conflict either directly or via their impact on economic growth. The results show that climate-related natural disasters have a negative effect on growth and that the impact is considerable. The analysis of conflict onset shows that climate-related natural disasters do not increase the risk of armed conflict. This is also true when we instrument the change in GDP growth by climatic disasters. The result is robust to inclusion of country and time fixed effects, different estimation techniques, and various operationalization of the disasters measure, as well as for conflict incidence and war onset. These findings have two major implications: if climate change increases the frequency or makes weather-related natural disasters more severe, it is an economic concern for countries susceptible to these types of hazards. However, our results suggest – based on historical data – that more frequent and severe climate-related disasters will not lead to more armed conflicts through their effects on GDP growth.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-10-03},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Bergholt, Drago and Lujala, Päivi},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {147--162},
}

Global warming is expected to make the climate warmer, wetter, and wilder. It is predicted that such climate change will increase the severity and frequency of climate-related disasters like flash floods, surges, cyclones, and severe storms. This article uses econometric methods to study the consequences of climate-induced natural disasters on economic growth, and how these disasters are linked to the onset of armed civil conflict either directly or via their impact on economic growth. The results show that climate-related natural disasters have a negative effect on growth and that the impact is considerable. The analysis of conflict onset shows that climate-related natural disasters do not increase the risk of armed conflict. This is also true when we instrument the change in GDP growth by climatic disasters. The result is robust to inclusion of country and time fixed effects, different estimation techniques, and various operationalization of the disasters measure, as well as for conflict incidence and war onset. These findings have two major implications: if climate change increases the frequency or makes weather-related natural disasters more severe, it is an economic concern for countries susceptible to these types of hazards. However, our results suggest – based on historical data – that more frequent and severe climate-related disasters will not lead to more armed conflicts through their effects on GDP growth.

@article{benjaminsen_does_2012,
	title = {Does climate change drive land-use conflicts in the {Sahel}?},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {0022-3433},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311427343},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343311427343},
	abstract = {While climate change scenarios for the Sahel vary and are uncertain, the most popularized prediction says there will progressively be drier conditions with more erratic rainfall. According to some, an increase in violent conflicts over scarce resources should also be expected. This article investigates the climate–conflict nexus in detail, focusing on a distinct area at the heart of the Sahel, the inland delta of the Niger river in the Mopti region of Mali. Two complementary analytical approaches are applied. The first consists of collection and analysis of court data on land-use conflicts, 1992–2009, from the regional Court of Appeal in Mopti. A comparison of the conflict data with statistics on contemporaneous climatic conditions gives little substance to claims that climate variability is an important driver of these conflicts. Second, we carried out a qualitative analysis of one of the many land-use conflicts in the region. Again, we find that factors other than those directly related to environmental conditions and resource scarcity dominate as plausible explanations of the violent conflict. We argue that three structural factors are the main drivers behind these conflicts: agricultural encroachment that obstructed the mobility of herders and livestock, opportunistic behavior of rural actors as a consequence of an increasing political vacuum, and corruption and rent seeking among government officials.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-10-03},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Benjaminsen, Tor A and Alinon, Koffi and Buhaug, Halvard and Buseth, Jill Tove},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {97--111},
}

While climate change scenarios for the Sahel vary and are uncertain, the most popularized prediction says there will progressively be drier conditions with more erratic rainfall. According to some, an increase in violent conflicts over scarce resources should also be expected. This article investigates the climate–conflict nexus in detail, focusing on a distinct area at the heart of the Sahel, the inland delta of the Niger river in the Mopti region of Mali. Two complementary analytical approaches are applied. The first consists of collection and analysis of court data on land-use conflicts, 1992–2009, from the regional Court of Appeal in Mopti. A comparison of the conflict data with statistics on contemporaneous climatic conditions gives little substance to claims that climate variability is an important driver of these conflicts. Second, we carried out a qualitative analysis of one of the many land-use conflicts in the region. Again, we find that factors other than those directly related to environmental conditions and resource scarcity dominate as plausible explanations of the violent conflict. We argue that three structural factors are the main drivers behind these conflicts: agricultural encroachment that obstructed the mobility of herders and livestock, opportunistic behavior of rural actors as a consequence of an increasing political vacuum, and corruption and rent seeking among government officials.

@techreport{almer_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate (change) and conflict: {Resolving} a puzzle of association and causation},
	shorttitle = {Climate (change) and conflict},
	institution = {Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, Universität Bern},
	author = {Almer, Christian and Boes, Stefan},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
}

@article{roson_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate {Change} and {Economic} {Growth}: {Impacts} and {Interactions}},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {1556-5068},
	shorttitle = {Climate {Change} and {Economic} {Growth}},
	url = {http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=1594708},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.1594708},
	abstract = {An integrated assessment model (ENVISAGE), including a CGE-based economic module and a climate module, is used to assess the effects of a variety of economic impacts induced by climate change. These impacts include: sea level rise, variations in crop yields, water availability, human health, tourism, energy demand. Two scenarios are compared: a baseline growth path, disregarding any climate change effect, and a counterfactual case, accounting for the impacts. The model assesses the overall magnitude of the impacts, their regional distribution, and the contribution of each specific impact to the overall variation of income and welfare. Results (e.g., on real GDP) show that climate change impacts are substantial, especially for developing countries and in the long run.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	journal = {International Journal of Sustainable Economy},
	author = {Roson, Roberto and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {CK, Damages, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Method: Process-based, Sector: Agriculture, Sector: Energy, Sector: Health, Sector: SCC Review or Discussion, Sector: Sea Level Rise, Tags Edited, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {270+},
}

An integrated assessment model (ENVISAGE), including a CGE-based economic module and a climate module, is used to assess the effects of a variety of economic impacts induced by climate change. These impacts include: sea level rise, variations in crop yields, water availability, human health, tourism, energy demand. Two scenarios are compared: a baseline growth path, disregarding any climate change effect, and a counterfactual case, accounting for the impacts. The model assesses the overall magnitude of the impacts, their regional distribution, and the contribution of each specific impact to the overall variation of income and welfare. Results (e.g., on real GDP) show that climate change impacts are substantial, especially for developing countries and in the long run.

@article{deschenes_economic_2012,
	title = {The {Economic} {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change}: {Evidence} from {Agricultural} {Output} and {Random} {Fluctuations} in {Weather}: {Reply}},
	volume = {102},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	shorttitle = {The {Economic} {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.102.7.3761},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.102.7.3761},
	abstract = {Fisher et al. (2012)––henceforth, FHRS––have uncovered coding and data errors in our paper, Deschênes and Greenstone (2007), henceforth, DG. We acknowledge and are embarrassed by these mistakes. We are grateful to FHRS for uncovering them. We hope that this Reply will also contribute to advancing the literature on the vital question of the impact of climate change on the US agricultural sector.},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2017-10-30},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Deschênes, Olivier and Greenstone, Michael},
	month = dec,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {3761--3773},
}

Fisher et al. (2012)––henceforth, FHRS––have uncovered coding and data errors in our paper, Deschênes and Greenstone (2007), henceforth, DG. We acknowledge and are embarrassed by these mistakes. We are grateful to FHRS for uncovering them. We hope that this Reply will also contribute to advancing the literature on the vital question of the impact of climate change on the US agricultural sector.

@article{blomberg_economic_2012,
	title = {The {Economic} {Welfare} {Cost} of {Conflict}: {An} {Empirical} {Assessment}},
	shorttitle = {The {Economic} {Welfare} {Cost} of {Conflict}},
	url = {http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195392777.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780195392777-e-18},
	doi = {10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195392777.013.0018},
	abstract = {This article takes a macroeconomic perspective, looking at a cross section of nations over time, to provide further evidence on the costs of conflict, both internal and external. Adapting a model of Lucas (1987) intended to measure the costs of business cycles, it assesses the impact of conflict viewed as an aggregate “shock” to national consumption and welfare. The article suggests that the estimates of the permanent welfare loss resulting from war, under conservative scenarios, are remarkably large and much higher than the estimated costs of business cycles.},
	urldate = {2017-10-27},
	author = {Blomberg, S. Brock and Hess, Gregory D.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

This article takes a macroeconomic perspective, looking at a cross section of nations over time, to provide further evidence on the costs of conflict, both internal and external. Adapting a model of Lucas (1987) intended to measure the costs of business cycles, it assesses the impact of conflict viewed as an aggregate “shock” to national consumption and welfare. The article suggests that the estimates of the permanent welfare loss resulting from war, under conservative scenarios, are remarkably large and much higher than the estimated costs of business cycles.

@techreport{world_bank_guidelines_2012,
	address = {Washington, D.C},
	title = {Guidelines for {Assessing} the {Impacts} and {Costs} of {Forced} {Displacement}},
	url = {http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/Resources/244362-1265299949041/6766328-1265299960363/SME338-Impac-Report_v8.pdf},
	author = {World Bank},
	month = jul,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

@article{yu_daily_2012,
	title = {Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence},
	volume = {56},
	issn = {0020-7128, 1432-1254},
	shorttitle = {Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-011-0497-3},
	doi = {10.1007/s00484-011-0497-3},
	abstract = {The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95\% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2–5\% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1–2 \% increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-12-04},
	journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
	author = {Yu, Weiwei and Mengersen, Kerrie and Wang, Xiaoyu and Ye, Xiaofang and Guo, Yuming and Pan, Xiaochuan and Tong, Shilu},
	month = jul,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {569--581},
}

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2–5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1–2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.

@article{oloughlin_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate variability and conflict risk in {East} {Africa}, 1990-2009},
	volume = {109},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1205130109},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1205130109},
	language = {en},
	number = {45},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {O'Loughlin, J. and Witmer, F. D. W. and Linke, A. M. and Laing, A. and Gettelman, A. and Dudhia, J.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {18344--18349},
}

@article{narita_economic_2012,
	title = {Economic costs of ocean acidification: a look into the impacts on global shellfish production},
	volume = {113},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Economic costs of ocean acidification},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0383-3},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0383-3},
	abstract = {Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a major global problem. Yet economic assessments of its effects are currently almost absent. Unlike most other marine organisms, mollusks, which have significant commercial value worldwide, have relatively solid scientific evidence of biological impact of acidification and allow us to make such an economic evaluation. By performing a partial-equilibrium analysis, we estimate global and regional economic costs of production loss of mollusks due to ocean acidification. Our results show that the costs for the world as a whole could be over 100 billion USD with an assumption of increasing demand of mollusks with expected income growths combined with a business-as-usual emission trend towards the year 2100. The major determinants of cost levels are the impacts on the Chinese production, which is dominant in the world, and the expected demand increase of mollusks in today’s developing countries, which include China, in accordance with their future income rise. Our results have direct implications for climate policy. Because the ocean acidifies faster than the atmosphere warms, the acidification effects on mollusks would raise the social cost of carbon more strongly than the estimated damage adds to the damage costs of climate change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Narita, Daiju and Rehdanz, Katrin and Tol, Richard S. J.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {1049--1063},
}

Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a major global problem. Yet economic assessments of its effects are currently almost absent. Unlike most other marine organisms, mollusks, which have significant commercial value worldwide, have relatively solid scientific evidence of biological impact of acidification and allow us to make such an economic evaluation. By performing a partial-equilibrium analysis, we estimate global and regional economic costs of production loss of mollusks due to ocean acidification. Our results show that the costs for the world as a whole could be over 100 billion USD with an assumption of increasing demand of mollusks with expected income growths combined with a business-as-usual emission trend towards the year 2100. The major determinants of cost levels are the impacts on the Chinese production, which is dominant in the world, and the expected demand increase of mollusks in today’s developing countries, which include China, in accordance with their future income rise. Our results have direct implications for climate policy. Because the ocean acidifies faster than the atmosphere warms, the acidification effects on mollusks would raise the social cost of carbon more strongly than the estimated damage adds to the damage costs of climate change.

@article{lichter_assessing_2012,
	title = {Assessing the costs of sea-level rise and extreme flooding at the local level: {A} {GIS}-based approach},
	volume = {59},
	issn = {09645691},
	shorttitle = {Assessing the costs of sea-level rise and extreme flooding at the local level},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0964569111002249},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.12.020},
	abstract = {This paper presents a systematic framework for assessing the costs of sea-level rise (SLR) and extreme flooding at the local level. The method is generic and transferable. It is built on coupling readily available GIS capabilities with quantitative estimates of the effects of natural hazards. This allows for the ex ante monetization of the main costs related to different scenarios of permanent inundation and periodic flooding. This approach can be used by coastal zone planners to generate vital information on land use, capital stock and population at risk for jurisdictions of different sizes. The simple mechanics of the method are presented with respect to two examples: one relates to the two largest coastal cities in Israel (Tel Aviv and Haifa) and the other to the Northern Coastal Strip region containing a variety of small towns and rural communities. The paper concludes with implications for coastal zone planning praxis.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-05-05},
	journal = {Ocean \& Coastal Management},
	author = {Lichter, Michal and Felsenstein, Daniel},
	month = apr,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {47--62},
}

This paper presents a systematic framework for assessing the costs of sea-level rise (SLR) and extreme flooding at the local level. The method is generic and transferable. It is built on coupling readily available GIS capabilities with quantitative estimates of the effects of natural hazards. This allows for the ex ante monetization of the main costs related to different scenarios of permanent inundation and periodic flooding. This approach can be used by coastal zone planners to generate vital information on land use, capital stock and population at risk for jurisdictions of different sizes. The simple mechanics of the method are presented with respect to two examples: one relates to the two largest coastal cities in Israel (Tel Aviv and Haifa) and the other to the Northern Coastal Strip region containing a variety of small towns and rural communities. The paper concludes with implications for coastal zone planning praxis.

@misc{kudamatsu_weather_2012,
	title = {Weather and infant mortality in {Africa}},
	url = {http://nobel2012.iies.su.se/Papers/Kudamatsu.pdf},
	abstract = {How have weather fluctuations affected infant mortality in Africa over the last half century? To answer, we combine individual level data, obtained from retrospective fertility surveys (DHS) for nearly a million births in 28 African countries, with data for weather outcomes, obtained from re-analysis with climate models (ERA-40). We find robust statistical evidence of quantitatively significant effects via malaria and malnutrition. Infants in areas with epidemic malaria that experience worse malarious conditions during the time in utero than the site-specific seasonal means face a higher risk of death, especially when malaria shocks hit low-exposure areas. Infants in arid areas who experience droughts when in utero face a higher risk of death, especially if born in the so-called hungry season. We also uncover heterogeneities in the infant mortality effects of growing season rainfall and drought shocks, depending on household occupation or education. Based on the estimates, the paper estimates the number of infant deaths due to extreme weather events and the total number of infant deaths due to maternal malaria in epidemic areas.},
	urldate = {2017-07-20},
	publisher = {Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University},
	author = {Kudamatsu, M. and Persson, T. and Strömberg, D.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

How have weather fluctuations affected infant mortality in Africa over the last half century? To answer, we combine individual level data, obtained from retrospective fertility surveys (DHS) for nearly a million births in 28 African countries, with data for weather outcomes, obtained from re-analysis with climate models (ERA-40). We find robust statistical evidence of quantitatively significant effects via malaria and malnutrition. Infants in areas with epidemic malaria that experience worse malarious conditions during the time in utero than the site-specific seasonal means face a higher risk of death, especially when malaria shocks hit low-exposure areas. Infants in arid areas who experience droughts when in utero face a higher risk of death, especially if born in the so-called hungry season. We also uncover heterogeneities in the infant mortality effects of growing season rainfall and drought shocks, depending on household occupation or education. Based on the estimates, the paper estimates the number of infant deaths due to extreme weather events and the total number of infant deaths due to maternal malaria in epidemic areas.

@article{kopp_u.s._2012,
	title = {U.{S}. {Government}’s {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon} {Estimates} after {Their} {First} {Two} {Years}:  {Pathways} for {Improvement}, {The}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1864-6042},
	shorttitle = {The {U}.{S}. {Government}’s {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon} {Estimates} after {Their} {First} {Two} {Years}},
	url = {http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2012-15},
	doi = {10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-15},
	abstract = {In 2010, the U.S. government adopted its first consistent estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) for government-wide use in regulatory cost-benefit analysis. Here, the authors examine a number of limitations of the estimates identified in the U.S. government report and elsewhere and review recent advances that could pave the way for improvements. The authors consider in turn socio-economic scenarios, treatment of physical climate response, damage estimates, ways of incorporating risk aversion, and consistency between SCC estimates and broader climate policy.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2012-15},
	urldate = {2017-05-24},
	journal = {Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal},
	author = {Kopp, Robert E. and Mignone, Bryan K.},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1},
}

In 2010, the U.S. government adopted its first consistent estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) for government-wide use in regulatory cost-benefit analysis. Here, the authors examine a number of limitations of the estimates identified in the U.S. government report and elsewhere and review recent advances that could pave the way for improvements. The authors consider in turn socio-economic scenarios, treatment of physical climate response, damage estimates, ways of incorporating risk aversion, and consistency between SCC estimates and broader climate policy.

@article{kopp_influence_2012,
	title = {Influence of the {Specification} of {Climate} {Change} {Damages} on the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}, {The}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1864-6042},
	url = {http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2012-13},
	doi = {10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-13},
	abstract = {Drawing upon climate change damage specifications previously proposed in the literature that the authors have calibrated to a common level of damages at 2.5°C, the authors examine the effect upon the social cost of carbon (SCC) of varying damage specifications in a DICE-like integrated assessment model. They find that SCC estimates are highly sensitive to uncertainty in extrapolating damages to high temperatures at moderate-to-high levels of risk aversion, but only modestly so at low levels of risk aversion. While in the absence of risk aversion, all of the SCC estimates but one agree within a factor of two, with a moderate level of risk aversion included, the differences among estimates grow greatly. For example, one composite damage specification, combining elements of different literature-derived specifications and roughly taking into account calibration uncertainty, yields SCC values 32\% higher than the standard quadratic DICE damage function in the absence of risk aversion. With a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.4, however, the same uncertain specification yields SCC values almost triple those of the standard function. The authors conclude that failure to consider damages uncertainty and risk aversion jointly can lead to significant underestimation of the SCC.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2012-13},
	urldate = {2017-05-24},
	journal = {Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal},
	author = {Kopp, Robert E. and Golub, Alexander and Keohane, Nathaniel O. and Onda, Chikara},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1},
}

Drawing upon climate change damage specifications previously proposed in the literature that the authors have calibrated to a common level of damages at 2.5°C, the authors examine the effect upon the social cost of carbon (SCC) of varying damage specifications in a DICE-like integrated assessment model. They find that SCC estimates are highly sensitive to uncertainty in extrapolating damages to high temperatures at moderate-to-high levels of risk aversion, but only modestly so at low levels of risk aversion. While in the absence of risk aversion, all of the SCC estimates but one agree within a factor of two, with a moderate level of risk aversion included, the differences among estimates grow greatly. For example, one composite damage specification, combining elements of different literature-derived specifications and roughly taking into account calibration uncertainty, yields SCC values 32% higher than the standard quadratic DICE damage function in the absence of risk aversion. With a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.4, however, the same uncertain specification yields SCC values almost triple those of the standard function. The authors conclude that failure to consider damages uncertainty and risk aversion jointly can lead to significant underestimation of the SCC.

@article{hsiang_adaptation_2012,
	title = {Adaptation to {Cyclone} {Risk}: {Evidence} from the {Global} {Cross}-{Section}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {20100078},
	abstract = {Understanding the feasibility and cost of adaptation is essential to management of the global climate. Unfortunately, we lack general estimates of adaptive responses to almost all climatological processes. To address this for one phenomenon, we estimate the extent of adaptation to tropical cyclones (TCs) using the global cross-section of countries. We reconstruct every TC observed during 1950-2008 to parameterize countries' TC climate and year-to-year TC exposure. We then look for evidence of adaptation by comparing deaths and damages from physically similar TC events across countries with different TC climatologies. We find that countries with more intense TC climates suffer lower marginal losses from an actual TC event, indicating that adaptation to this climatological risk occurs but that it is costly. Overall, there is strong evidence that it is both feasible and cost-effective for countries with intense TC climatologies to invest heavily in adaptation. However, marginal changes from countries' current TC climates generate persistent losses, of which only {\textasciitilde}3\% is "adapted away" in the long run.},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Climate Change Economics},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Narita, Daiju},
	month = may,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1--28},
}

Understanding the feasibility and cost of adaptation is essential to management of the global climate. Unfortunately, we lack general estimates of adaptive responses to almost all climatological processes. To address this for one phenomenon, we estimate the extent of adaptation to tropical cyclones (TCs) using the global cross-section of countries. We reconstruct every TC observed during 1950-2008 to parameterize countries' TC climate and year-to-year TC exposure. We then look for evidence of adaptation by comparing deaths and damages from physically similar TC events across countries with different TC climatologies. We find that countries with more intense TC climates suffer lower marginal losses from an actual TC event, indicating that adaptation to this climatological risk occurs but that it is costly. Overall, there is strong evidence that it is both feasible and cost-effective for countries with intense TC climatologies to invest heavily in adaptation. However, marginal changes from countries' current TC climates generate persistent losses, of which only ~3% is "adapted away" in the long run.

@article{hendrix_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in {Africa}},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343311426165},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343311426165},
	abstract = {Much of the debate over the security implications of climate change revolves around whether changing weather patterns will lead to future conflict. This article addresses whether deviations from normal rainfall patterns affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. In contrast to much of the environmental security literature, it uses a much broader definition of conflict that includes, but is not limited to, organized rebellion. Using a new database of over 6,000 instances of social conflict over 20 years – the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) – it examines the effect of deviations from normal rainfall patterns on various types of conflict. The results indicate that rainfall variability has a significant effect on both large-scale and smaller-scale instances of political conflict. Rainfall correlates with civil war and insurgency, although wetter years are more likely to suffer from violent events. Extreme deviations in rainfall – particularly dry and wet years – are associated positively with all types of political conflict, though the relationship is strongest with respect to violent events, which are more responsive to abundant than scarce rainfall. By looking at a broader spectrum of social conflict, rather than limiting the analysis to civil war, we demonstrate a robust relationship between environmental shocks and unrest.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Hendrix, Cullen S and Salehyan, Idean},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {35--50},
}

Much of the debate over the security implications of climate change revolves around whether changing weather patterns will lead to future conflict. This article addresses whether deviations from normal rainfall patterns affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. In contrast to much of the environmental security literature, it uses a much broader definition of conflict that includes, but is not limited to, organized rebellion. Using a new database of over 6,000 instances of social conflict over 20 years – the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) – it examines the effect of deviations from normal rainfall patterns on various types of conflict. The results indicate that rainfall variability has a significant effect on both large-scale and smaller-scale instances of political conflict. Rainfall correlates with civil war and insurgency, although wetter years are more likely to suffer from violent events. Extreme deviations in rainfall – particularly dry and wet years – are associated positively with all types of political conflict, though the relationship is strongest with respect to violent events, which are more responsive to abundant than scarce rainfall. By looking at a broader spectrum of social conflict, rather than limiting the analysis to civil war, we demonstrate a robust relationship between environmental shocks and unrest.

@article{hawkins_time_2012,
	title = {Time of emergence of climate signals},
	volume = {39},
	issn = {00948276},
	shorttitle = {Time of emergence of climate signals},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011GL050087},
	doi = {10.1029/2011GL050087},
	abstract = {The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {n/a--n/a},
}

The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss.

@book{hahn_climate_2012,
	address = {Oxford ; New York},
	title = {Climate change and common sense: essays in honour of {Tom} {Schelling}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-969287-3},
	shorttitle = {Climate change and common sense},
	abstract = {This book takes a close look at the fundamental political and economic processes driving climate change policy. It identifies institutional arrangements and policies that are needed to design more effective climate change policy. It also examines ethical and distributional arguments that are critical in understanding and framing the climate debate. The book is built around a conference honouring Tom Schelling that took place at the Sustainable Consumption Institute at The University of Manchester. Each chapter represents a significant contribution to the literature on the political economy of climate change.},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	editor = {Hahn, Robert William and Ulph, Alistair and Schelling, Thomas C.},
	year = {2012},
	note = {OCLC: ocn751832045},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

This book takes a close look at the fundamental political and economic processes driving climate change policy. It identifies institutional arrangements and policies that are needed to design more effective climate change policy. It also examines ethical and distributional arguments that are critical in understanding and framing the climate debate. The book is built around a conference honouring Tom Schelling that took place at the Sustainable Consumption Institute at The University of Manchester. Each chapter represents a significant contribution to the literature on the political economy of climate change.

@article{hornbeck_enduring_2012,
	title = {Enduring {Impact} of the {American} {Dust} {Bowl}: {Short}- and {Long}-{Run} {Adjustments} to {Environmental} {Catastrophe}, {The}},
	volume = {102},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	shorttitle = {The {Enduring} {Impact} of the {American} {Dust} {Bowl}},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.102.4.1477},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.102.4.1477},
	abstract = {The 1930s American Dust Bowl was an environmental catastrophe that greatly eroded sections of the Plains. The Dust Bowl is estimated to have immediately, substantially, and persistently reduced agricultural land values and revenues in more-eroded counties relative to less-eroded counties. During the Depression and through at least the 1950s, there was limited relative adjustment of farmland away from activities that became relatively less productive in more-eroded areas. Agricultural adjustments recovered less than 25 percent of the initial difference in agricultural costs for more-eroded counties. The economy adjusted predominantly through large relative population declines in more-eroded counties, both during the 1930s and through the 1950s.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Hornbeck, Richard},
	month = jun,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {1477--1507},
}

The 1930s American Dust Bowl was an environmental catastrophe that greatly eroded sections of the Plains. The Dust Bowl is estimated to have immediately, substantially, and persistently reduced agricultural land values and revenues in more-eroded counties relative to less-eroded counties. During the Depression and through at least the 1950s, there was limited relative adjustment of farmland away from activities that became relatively less productive in more-eroded areas. Agricultural adjustments recovered less than 25 percent of the initial difference in agricultural costs for more-eroded counties. The economy adjusted predominantly through large relative population declines in more-eroded counties, both during the 1930s and through the 1950s.

@article{fisher_economic_2012,
	title = {Economic {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change}: {Evidence} from {Agricultural} {Output} and {Random} {Fluctuations} in {Weather}: {Comment}},
	volume = {102},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	shorttitle = {The {Economic} {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.102.7.3749},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.102.7.3749},
	abstract = {In a series of studies employing a variety of approaches, we have found that the potential impact of climate change on US agriculture is likely negative. DeschÃnes and Greenstone (2007) report dramatically different results based on regressions of agricultural profits and yields on weather variables. The divergence is explained by (1) missing and incorrect weather and climate data in their study; (2) their use of older climate change projections rather than the more recent and less optimistic projections from the Fourth Assessment Report; and (3) difficulties in their profit measure due to the confounding effects of storage.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2017-09-28},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Fisher, Anthony C and Hanemann, W. Michael and Roberts, Michael J and Schlenker, Wolfram},
	month = dec,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {3749--3760},
}

In a series of studies employing a variety of approaches, we have found that the potential impact of climate change on US agriculture is likely negative. DeschÃnes and Greenstone (2007) report dramatically different results based on regressions of agricultural profits and yields on weather variables. The divergence is explained by (1) missing and incorrect weather and climate data in their study; (2) their use of older climate change projections rather than the more recent and less optimistic projections from the Fourth Assessment Report; and (3) difficulties in their profit measure due to the confounding effects of storage.

@book{field_managing_2012,
	address = {New York, NY},
	title = {Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption: special report of the {Intergovernmental} {Panel} on {Climate} {Change}},
	isbn = {978-1-107-02506-6 978-1-107-60780-4},
	shorttitle = {Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption},
	abstract = {Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	editor = {Field, Christopher B. and {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
	year = {2012},
	note = {OCLC: ocn796030880},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda

@misc{feng_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate {Change}, {Crop} {Yields}, and {Internal} {Migration} in the {United} {States}},
	shorttitle = {{NBER} {Working} {Paper} 17734},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17734},
	abstract = {We investigate the link between agricultural productivity and net migration in the United States using a county-level panel for the most recent period of 1970-2009. In rural counties of the Corn Belt, we find a statistically significant relationship between changes in net outmigration and climate-driven changes in crop yields, with an estimated semi-elasticity of about -0.17, i.e., a 1\% decrease in yields leads to a 0.17\% net reduction of the population through migration. This effect is primarily driven by young adults. We do not detect a response for senior citizens, nor for the general population in eastern counties outside the Corn Belt. Applying this semi-elasticity to predicted yield changes under the B2 scenario of the Hadley III model, we project that, holding other factors constant, climate change would on average induce 3.7\% of the adult population (ages 15-59) to leave rural counties of the Corn Belt in the medium term (2020-2049) compared to the 1960-1989 baseline, with the possibility of a much larger migration response in the long term (2077-2099). Since there is uncertainty about future warming, we also present projections for a range of uniform climate change scenarios in temperature or precipitation.},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Feng, Shuaizhang and Oppenheimer, Michael and Schlenker, Wolfram},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

We investigate the link between agricultural productivity and net migration in the United States using a county-level panel for the most recent period of 1970-2009. In rural counties of the Corn Belt, we find a statistically significant relationship between changes in net outmigration and climate-driven changes in crop yields, with an estimated semi-elasticity of about -0.17, i.e., a 1% decrease in yields leads to a 0.17% net reduction of the population through migration. This effect is primarily driven by young adults. We do not detect a response for senior citizens, nor for the general population in eastern counties outside the Corn Belt. Applying this semi-elasticity to predicted yield changes under the B2 scenario of the Hadley III model, we project that, holding other factors constant, climate change would on average induce 3.7% of the adult population (ages 15-59) to leave rural counties of the Corn Belt in the medium term (2020-2049) compared to the 1960-1989 baseline, with the possibility of a much larger migration response in the long term (2077-2099). Since there is uncertainty about future warming, we also present projections for a range of uniform climate change scenarios in temperature or precipitation.

@article{dell_temperature_2012,
	title = {Temperature {Shocks} and {Economic} {Growth}: {Evidence} from the {Last} {Half} {Century}},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {1945-7707, 1945-7715},
	shorttitle = {Temperature {Shocks} and {Economic} {Growth}},
	url = {https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/dell/files/aej_temperature.pdf},
	doi = {10.1257/mac.4.3.66},
	abstract = {This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics},
	author = {Dell, Melissa and Jones, Benjamin F and Olken, Benjamin A},
	month = jul,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {66--95},
}

This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries.

@article{butler_adaptation_2012,
	title = {Adaptation of {US} maize to temperature variations},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1585},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate1585},
	abstract = {High temperatures are associated with reduced crop yields1, 2, and predictions for future warming3 have raised concerns regarding future productivity and food security4, 5, 6, 7, 8. However, the extent to which adaptation can mitigate such heat-related losses remains unclear9, 10, 11, 12, 13. Here we empirically demonstrate how maize is locally adapted to hot temperatures across US counties. Using this spatial adaptation as a surrogate for future adaptation, we find that losses to average US maize yields from a 2 °C warming would be reduced from 14\% to only 6\% and that loss in net production is wholly averted. This result does not account for possible changes in temperature variability or water resources, nor does it account for all possible forms of adaptation14, 15, 16, 17, 18, but it does show that adaptation is of first-order importance for predicting future changes in yield. Further research should be undertaken regarding the ability to adapt to a changing climate, including analysis of other crops and regions, the application of more sophisticated models of crop development, and field trials employing artificially increased temperature.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Butler, Ethan E. and Huybers, Peter},
	month = nov,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {68--72},
}

High temperatures are associated with reduced crop yields1, 2, and predictions for future warming3 have raised concerns regarding future productivity and food security4, 5, 6, 7, 8. However, the extent to which adaptation can mitigate such heat-related losses remains unclear9, 10, 11, 12, 13. Here we empirically demonstrate how maize is locally adapted to hot temperatures across US counties. Using this spatial adaptation as a surrogate for future adaptation, we find that losses to average US maize yields from a 2 °C warming would be reduced from 14% to only 6% and that loss in net production is wholly averted. This result does not account for possible changes in temperature variability or water resources, nor does it account for all possible forms of adaptation14, 15, 16, 17, 18, but it does show that adaptation is of first-order importance for predicting future changes in yield. Further research should be undertaken regarding the ability to adapt to a changing climate, including analysis of other crops and regions, the application of more sophisticated models of crop development, and field trials employing artificially increased temperature.

@article{butler_african_2012,
	title = {African range wars: {Climate}, conflict, and property rights},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {0022-3433},
	shorttitle = {African range wars},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311426166},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343311426166},
	abstract = {This article examines the effect of climate change on a type of armed conflict that pits pastoralists (cattle herders) against each other (range wars). Such conflicts are typically fought over water rights and/or grazing rights to unfenced/unowned land. The state is rarely involved directly. The rangeland of East Africa is a region particularly vulnerable to drought and livestock diseases associated with climate change. To analyze the possible effects of climate change on pastoral conflict, we focus our analysis on changes in resource availability, contrasting cases of abundance and scarcity. The role of resources is further contextualized by competing notions of property rights, and the role of the state in defining property and associated rights. We employ a contest success function (CSF) game-theoretic model to analyze the logic of range wars. This CSF approach emphasizes the low-level, non-binary nature of raiding behavior between pastoralist groups over limited natural resources. A central contribution of this approach is that the logic of raiding behavior implies a positive relationship between resources and conflict. This positive relationship is supported by several studies of the rangeland of East Africa, but is generally dismissed by the literature on the ‘resource curse’. This relationship is contingent on other factors examined in the model, producing the following results. First, the level of property rights protection provided by the state generally reduces conflict between pastoralist groups. Second, if property rights protection is provided in a biased manner, then conflict between pastoralist groups increases. Third, severe resource asymmetries between two pastoralist groups will induce the poorer group to become bandits (focusing their efforts on raiding and not producing), while the richer group raids in retaliation.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-11-21},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Butler, Christopher K and Gates, Scott},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {23--34},
}

This article examines the effect of climate change on a type of armed conflict that pits pastoralists (cattle herders) against each other (range wars). Such conflicts are typically fought over water rights and/or grazing rights to unfenced/unowned land. The state is rarely involved directly. The rangeland of East Africa is a region particularly vulnerable to drought and livestock diseases associated with climate change. To analyze the possible effects of climate change on pastoral conflict, we focus our analysis on changes in resource availability, contrasting cases of abundance and scarcity. The role of resources is further contextualized by competing notions of property rights, and the role of the state in defining property and associated rights. We employ a contest success function (CSF) game-theoretic model to analyze the logic of range wars. This CSF approach emphasizes the low-level, non-binary nature of raiding behavior between pastoralist groups over limited natural resources. A central contribution of this approach is that the logic of raiding behavior implies a positive relationship between resources and conflict. This positive relationship is supported by several studies of the rangeland of East Africa, but is generally dismissed by the literature on the ‘resource curse’. This relationship is contingent on other factors examined in the model, producing the following results. First, the level of property rights protection provided by the state generally reduces conflict between pastoralist groups. Second, if property rights protection is provided in a biased manner, then conflict between pastoralist groups increases. Third, severe resource asymmetries between two pastoralist groups will induce the poorer group to become bandits (focusing their efforts on raiding and not producing), while the richer group raids in retaliation.

@article{bosello_economic_2012,
	title = {Economic impacts of climate change in {Europe}: sea-level rise},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Economic impacts of climate change in {Europe}},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0340-1},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0340-1},
	abstract = {This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the GTAP-EF model to assess the indirect economic implications. Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12\% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5\% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany (\$483 and \$391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85\% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries’ economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. The policy insights are (1) while sea-level rise has negative and huge direct economic effects, overall effects on GDP are quite small (max −0.046\% in Poland); (2) the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indirectly affects landlocked countries as well (Austria for instance loses −0.003\% of its GDP); and (3) adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-05-17},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Bosello, Francesco and Nicholls, Robert J. and Richards, Julie and Roson, Roberto and Tol, Richard S. J.},
	month = may,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {63--81},
}

This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the GTAP-EF model to assess the indirect economic implications. Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany ($483 and $391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries’ economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. The policy insights are (1) while sea-level rise has negative and huge direct economic effects, overall effects on GDP are quite small (max −0.046% in Poland); (2) the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indirectly affects landlocked countries as well (Austria for instance loses −0.003% of its GDP); and (3) adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level.

@article{bosello_assessing_2012,
	title = {Assessing the {Economic} {Impacts} of {Climate} {Change} - {An} {Updated} {CGE} {Point} of {View}},
	issn = {1556-5068},
	url = {http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2004966},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2004966},
	abstract = {The present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date bottom-up impact studies. Estimates indicate that a temperature increase of 1.92°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2050 could lead to global GDP losses of approximately 0.5\% compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur. Northern Europe is expected to benefit from the evaluated temperature increase ( 0.18\%), while Southern and Eastern Europe are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario under analysis (-0.15\% and -0.21\% respectively). Most vulnerable countries are the less developed regions, such as South Asia, South-East Asia, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions the most exposed sector is agriculture, and the impact on crop productivity is by far the most important source of damages. It is worth noting that the general equilibrium estimates tend to be lower, in absolute terms, than the bottom-up, partial equilibrium estimates. The difference is to be attributed to the effect of market-driven adaptation. This partly reduces the direct impacts of temperature increases, leading to lower damage estimates. Nonetheless these remain positive and substantive in some regions. Accordingly, market-driven adaptation cannot be the solution to the climate change problem.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
	author = {Bosello, Francesco and Eboli, Fabio and Pierfederici, Roberta},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

The present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date bottom-up impact studies. Estimates indicate that a temperature increase of 1.92°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2050 could lead to global GDP losses of approximately 0.5% compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur. Northern Europe is expected to benefit from the evaluated temperature increase ( 0.18%), while Southern and Eastern Europe are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario under analysis (-0.15% and -0.21% respectively). Most vulnerable countries are the less developed regions, such as South Asia, South-East Asia, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions the most exposed sector is agriculture, and the impact on crop productivity is by far the most important source of damages. It is worth noting that the general equilibrium estimates tend to be lower, in absolute terms, than the bottom-up, partial equilibrium estimates. The difference is to be attributed to the effect of market-driven adaptation. This partly reduces the direct impacts of temperature increases, leading to lower damage estimates. Nonetheless these remain positive and substantive in some regions. Accordingly, market-driven adaptation cannot be the solution to the climate change problem.

@article{bergholt_climate-related_2012,
	title = {Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343311426167},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343311426167},
	abstract = {Global warming is expected to make the climate warmer, wetter, and wilder. It is predicted that such climate change will increase the severity and frequency of climate-related disasters like flash floods, surges, cyclones, and severe storms. This article uses econometric methods to study the consequences of climate-induced natural disasters on economic growth, and how these disasters are linked to the onset of armed civil conflict either directly or via their impact on economic growth. The results show that climate-related natural disasters have a negative effect on growth and that the impact is considerable. The analysis of conflict onset shows that climate-related natural disasters do not increase the risk of armed conflict. This is also true when we instrument the change in GDP growth by climatic disasters. The result is robust to inclusion of country and time fixed effects, different estimation techniques, and various operationalization of the disasters measure, as well as for conflict incidence and war onset. These findings have two major implications: if climate change increases the frequency or makes weather-related natural disasters more severe, it is an economic concern for countries susceptible to these types of hazards. However, our results suggest – based on historical data – that more frequent and severe climate-related disasters will not lead to more armed conflicts through their effects on GDP growth.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-10-08},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Bergholt, Drago and Lujala, Päivi},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {147--162},
}

Global warming is expected to make the climate warmer, wetter, and wilder. It is predicted that such climate change will increase the severity and frequency of climate-related disasters like flash floods, surges, cyclones, and severe storms. This article uses econometric methods to study the consequences of climate-induced natural disasters on economic growth, and how these disasters are linked to the onset of armed civil conflict either directly or via their impact on economic growth. The results show that climate-related natural disasters have a negative effect on growth and that the impact is considerable. The analysis of conflict onset shows that climate-related natural disasters do not increase the risk of armed conflict. This is also true when we instrument the change in GDP growth by climatic disasters. The result is robust to inclusion of country and time fixed effects, different estimation techniques, and various operationalization of the disasters measure, as well as for conflict incidence and war onset. These findings have two major implications: if climate change increases the frequency or makes weather-related natural disasters more severe, it is an economic concern for countries susceptible to these types of hazards. However, our results suggest – based on historical data – that more frequent and severe climate-related disasters will not lead to more armed conflicts through their effects on GDP growth.

@article{barreca_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the {United} {States}},
	volume = {63},
	issn = {00950696},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0095069611001033},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2011.07.004},
	abstract = {This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973–2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
	author = {Barreca, Alan I.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {19--34},
}

This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973–2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects.

@misc{auffhammer_hotspots_2012,
	title = {Hotspots of {Climate}-{Driven} {Increases} in {Residential} {Energy} {Demand}: {A} {Simulation} {Exercise} {Based} on {Household} {Level} {Billing} {Data} for {California}},
	url = {http://www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-500-2012-021/CEC-500-2012-021.pdf},
	abstract = {One of the obvious modes of adaptation to higher temperatures due to climate change is the increased demand for cooling and decreased demand for heating in the built environment. California’s residential sector uses relatively little electricity for heating, and it is therefore expected that the demand for electricity will increase as households operate existing air conditioners more frequently, and in many regions, will install air conditioners where there currently are few. This paper provides reduced form estimates of changes in electricity consumption due to increased use of installed cooling equipment under a hotter climate. This
study adds to the literature by incorporating the change in temperature responsiveness due to likely increases in air conditioner penetration under climate change using a two-stage method. It shows that taking into account these capital investments may lead to higher projections of electricity consumption. These increases in projected electricity consumption were mapped to the ZIP codes in the study data. The paper shows suggestive evidence that more Caucasian and wealthy ZIP codes are projected to experience relatively smaller increases in consumption, while ZIP codes with a higher share of Latino population are projected to experience larger
increases in consumption.},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	publisher = {California Energy Commission},
	author = {Auffhammer, Maximillian and Aroonruengsawat, Anin},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

One of the obvious modes of adaptation to higher temperatures due to climate change is the increased demand for cooling and decreased demand for heating in the built environment. California’s residential sector uses relatively little electricity for heating, and it is therefore expected that the demand for electricity will increase as households operate existing air conditioners more frequently, and in many regions, will install air conditioners where there currently are few. This paper provides reduced form estimates of changes in electricity consumption due to increased use of installed cooling equipment under a hotter climate. This study adds to the literature by incorporating the change in temperature responsiveness due to likely increases in air conditioner penetration under climate change using a two-stage method. It shows that taking into account these capital investments may lead to higher projections of electricity consumption. These increases in projected electricity consumption were mapped to the ZIP codes in the study data. The paper shows suggestive evidence that more Caucasian and wealthy ZIP codes are projected to experience relatively smaller increases in consumption, while ZIP codes with a higher share of Latino population are projected to experience larger increases in consumption.

@article{ackerman_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate {Risks} and {Carbon} {Prices}: {Revising} the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1864-6042},
	shorttitle = {Climate {Risks} and {Carbon} {Prices}},
	url = {http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2012-10},
	doi = {10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-10},
	abstract = {The social cost of carbon – or marginal damage caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions – has been estimated by a U.S. government working group at \$21/tCO2 in 2010. That calculation, however, omits many of the biggest risks associated with climate change, and downplays the impact of current emissions on future generations. Our reanalysis explores the effects of uncertainty about climate sensitivity, the shape of the damage function, and the discount rate. We show that the social cost of carbon is uncertain across a broad range, and could be much higher than \$21/tCO2. In our case combining high climate sensitivity, high damages, and a low discount rate, the social cost of carbon could be almost \$900/tCO2 in 2010, rising to \$1,500/tCO2 in 2050.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2012-10},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal},
	author = {Ackerman, Frank and Stanton, Elizabeth A.},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {1},
}

The social cost of carbon – or marginal damage caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions – has been estimated by a U.S. government working group at $21/tCO2 in 2010. That calculation, however, omits many of the biggest risks associated with climate change, and downplays the impact of current emissions on future generations. Our reanalysis explores the effects of uncertainty about climate sensitivity, the shape of the damage function, and the discount rate. We show that the social cost of carbon is uncertain across a broad range, and could be much higher than $21/tCO2. In our case combining high climate sensitivity, high damages, and a low discount rate, the social cost of carbon could be almost $900/tCO2 in 2010, rising to $1,500/tCO2 in 2050.

@misc{ackerman_cred_2012,
	title = {{CRED} v. 1.3 {Technical} {Report}},
	url = {http://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-CRED-1.4-Technical-Report.pdf},
	abstract = {Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) is an integrated assessment model, with a central focus on the global distribution of climate damages and climate policy costs. It is designed to estimate both the best pace of investment in mitigation, and the best distribution of the cost of that investment to regions of the world, with the goal of informing global climate negotiations and help break the stalemate between developed and developing countries. Version 1.3 of the CRED model was completed in June 2011. This technical report describes the CRED v.1.3 methodology in detail.},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	publisher = {Stockholm Environment Institute-U.S. Center},
	author = {Ackerman, Frank and Stanton, Elizabeth A. and Bueno, Ramón},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) is an integrated assessment model, with a central focus on the global distribution of climate damages and climate policy costs. It is designed to estimate both the best pace of investment in mitigation, and the best distribution of the cost of that investment to regions of the world, with the goal of informing global climate negotiations and help break the stalemate between developed and developing countries. Version 1.3 of the CRED model was completed in June 2011. This technical report describes the CRED v.1.3 methodology in detail.

@article{ackerman_climate_2012-1,
	title = {Climate damages in the {FUND} model: {A} disaggregated analysis},
	volume = {77},
	issn = {09218009},
	shorttitle = {Climate damages in the {FUND} model},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800912001176},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.005},
	abstract = {We examine the treatment of climate damages in the FUND model. By inserting software switches to turn individual features on and off, we obtain FUND's estimates for 15 categories of damages, and for components of the agricultural category. FUND, as used by the U.S. government to estimate the social cost of carbon, projects a net benefit of climate change in agriculture, offset by a slightly larger estimate of all other damages. Within agriculture there is a large benefit from CO2 fertilization, a moderate cost from the effect of temperature on yields, and a much smaller impact of the rate of change.

In FUND's agricultural modeling, the temperature-yield equation comes close to dividing by zero for high-probability values of a Monte Carlo parameter. The range of variation of the optimal temperature exceeds physically plausible limits, with 95\% confidence intervals extending to 17 °C above and below current temperatures. Moreover, FUND's agricultural estimates are calibrated to research published in 1996 or earlier.

Use of estimates from such models is arguably inappropriate for setting public policy. But as long as such models are being used in the policymaking process, an update to reflect newer research and correct modeling errors is needed before FUND's damage estimates can be relied on.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-11-21},
	journal = {Ecological Economics},
	author = {Ackerman, Frank and Munitz, Charles},
	month = may,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {219--224},
}

We examine the treatment of climate damages in the FUND model. By inserting software switches to turn individual features on and off, we obtain FUND's estimates for 15 categories of damages, and for components of the agricultural category. FUND, as used by the U.S. government to estimate the social cost of carbon, projects a net benefit of climate change in agriculture, offset by a slightly larger estimate of all other damages. Within agriculture there is a large benefit from CO2 fertilization, a moderate cost from the effect of temperature on yields, and a much smaller impact of the rate of change. In FUND's agricultural modeling, the temperature-yield equation comes close to dividing by zero for high-probability values of a Monte Carlo parameter. The range of variation of the optimal temperature exceeds physically plausible limits, with 95% confidence intervals extending to 17 °C above and below current temperatures. Moreover, FUND's agricultural estimates are calibrated to research published in 1996 or earlier. Use of estimates from such models is arguably inappropriate for setting public policy. But as long as such models are being used in the policymaking process, an update to reflect newer research and correct modeling errors is needed before FUND's damage estimates can be relied on.

@article{scheffran_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate change and violent conflict},
	volume = {336},
	issn = {1095-9203},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1221339},
	abstract = {Current debates over the relation between climate change and conflict originate in a lack of data, as well as the complexity of pathways connecting the two phenomena.},
	language = {eng},
	number = {6083},
	journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)},
	author = {Scheffran, Jürgen and Brzoska, Michael and Kominek, Jasmin and Link, P. Michael and Schilling, Janpeter},
	month = may,
	year = {2012},
	pmid = {22605765},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {869--871},
}

Current debates over the relation between climate change and conflict originate in a lack of data, as well as the complexity of pathways connecting the two phenomena.

@article{reilly_using_2012,
	title = {Using {Land} {To} {Mitigate} {Climate} {Change}: {Hitting} the {Target}, {Recognizing} the {Trade}-offs},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0013-936X, 1520-5851},
	shorttitle = {Using {Land} {To} {Mitigate} {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es2034729},
	doi = {10.1021/es2034729},
	abstract = {Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth’s average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C – Energy-Only policy) or a net source (−21 Pg C – No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.},
	language = {en},
	number = {11},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology},
	author = {Reilly, John and Melillo, Jerry and Cai, Yongxia and Kicklighter, David and Gurgel, Angelo and Paltsev, Sergey and Cronin, Timothy and Sokolov, Andrei and Schlosser, Adam},
	month = jun,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {5672--5679},
}

Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth’s average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C – Energy-Only policy) or a net source (−21 Pg C – No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.

@article{pueyo_solution_2012,
	title = {Solution to the paradox of climate sensitivity},
	volume = {113},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0328-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0328-x},
	abstract = {Most countries endorse a limit of either 2°C or 1.5°C global warming above pre-industrial levels. However, for several reasons, there is still a significant uncertainty in the climate sensitivity parameter, which relates greenhouse gas concentration (or other forcings) to steady-state temperature. One key source of uncertainty is the disagreement about the appropriate prior for Bayesian estimation. A common choice is the uniform distribution, often thought to contain no information. However, when used to estimate sensitivity it leads to paradoxical results, which have been interpreted as revealing an inherent indeterminacy in the prior of choice. If this were the case, part of the uncertainty would be irreducible. Here I develop an objective Bayesian approach to this problem. I show that both Jaynes’ invariant groups criterion and a new criterion based on information theory lead to the conclusion that there is a uniquely defined non-informative prior of climate sensitivity, which is distinct from the uniform and solves the paradox. This prior distribution is the log-uniform. Furthermore, this result is supported empirically by the observation that other comparable non-equilibrium parameters display a scale-invariant, log-uniform-like frequency distribution. Rather than advocating a direct use of this prior, I recommend to refine it with a limited use of expert elicitation or other methods. A sound prior is a key ingredient in the process to reach a consensus low-uncertainty estimate of climate sensitivity to inform climate policy.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Pueyo, Salvador},
	month = jul,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {163--179},
}

Most countries endorse a limit of either 2°C or 1.5°C global warming above pre-industrial levels. However, for several reasons, there is still a significant uncertainty in the climate sensitivity parameter, which relates greenhouse gas concentration (or other forcings) to steady-state temperature. One key source of uncertainty is the disagreement about the appropriate prior for Bayesian estimation. A common choice is the uniform distribution, often thought to contain no information. However, when used to estimate sensitivity it leads to paradoxical results, which have been interpreted as revealing an inherent indeterminacy in the prior of choice. If this were the case, part of the uncertainty would be irreducible. Here I develop an objective Bayesian approach to this problem. I show that both Jaynes’ invariant groups criterion and a new criterion based on information theory lead to the conclusion that there is a uniquely defined non-informative prior of climate sensitivity, which is distinct from the uniform and solves the paradox. This prior distribution is the log-uniform. Furthermore, this result is supported empirically by the observation that other comparable non-equilibrium parameters display a scale-invariant, log-uniform-like frequency distribution. Rather than advocating a direct use of this prior, I recommend to refine it with a limited use of expert elicitation or other methods. A sound prior is a key ingredient in the process to reach a consensus low-uncertainty estimate of climate sensitivity to inform climate policy.

@article{theisen_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate {Wars}? {Assessing} the {Claim} {That} {Drought} {Breeds} {Conflict}},
	volume = {36},
	issn = {0162-2889, 1531-4804},
	shorttitle = {Climate {Wars}?},
	url = {http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/10.1162/ISEC_a_00065},
	doi = {10.1162/ISEC_a_00065},
	abstract = {Dominant climate models suggest that large parts of Africa will experience greater climatic variability and increasing rates of drought in coming decades. This could have severe societal consequences, because the economies and food supplies of most African countries depend on rain-fed agriculture. According to leading environmental security scholars, policymakers, and nongovernmental organizations, an increase in scarcity-driven armed conflicts should also be expected. A conditional theory of environmental conflict predicts that drought increases the risk of civil war primarily when it strikes vulnerable and politically marginalized populations in agrarian societies. However, an empirical evaluation of this general proposition through a unique gridded dataset of postcolonial Africa, which combines high-resolution meteorological data with georeferenced data on civil war onset and the local ethnopolitical context, shows little evidence of a drought-conflict connection. Instead, the local risk of civil war can be explained by sociopolitical and geographic factors: a politically marginalized population, high infant mortality, proximity to international borders, and high local population density.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {International Security},
	author = {Theisen, Ole Magnus and Holtermann, Helge and Buhaug, Halvard},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {79--106},
}

Dominant climate models suggest that large parts of Africa will experience greater climatic variability and increasing rates of drought in coming decades. This could have severe societal consequences, because the economies and food supplies of most African countries depend on rain-fed agriculture. According to leading environmental security scholars, policymakers, and nongovernmental organizations, an increase in scarcity-driven armed conflicts should also be expected. A conditional theory of environmental conflict predicts that drought increases the risk of civil war primarily when it strikes vulnerable and politically marginalized populations in agrarian societies. However, an empirical evaluation of this general proposition through a unique gridded dataset of postcolonial Africa, which combines high-resolution meteorological data with georeferenced data on civil war onset and the local ethnopolitical context, shows little evidence of a drought-conflict connection. Instead, the local risk of civil war can be explained by sociopolitical and geographic factors: a politically marginalized population, high infant mortality, proximity to international borders, and high local population density.

@article{theisen_climate_2012-1,
	title = {Climate clashes? {Weather} variability, land pressure, and organized violence in {Kenya}, 1989–2004},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {Climate clashes?},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343311425842},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343311425842},
	abstract = {The evidence of coming climate change has generated catastrophe-like statements of a future where a warmer, wetter, and wilder climate leads to a surge in migrant streams and gives rise to new wars. Although highly popular in policy circles, few of these claims are based on systematic evidence. Using a most-likely case design on Kenya 1989–2004, with new geographically disaggregated data on armed conflicts below the common civil conflict level, this study finds that climatic factors do influence the risk of conflicts and violent events. The effect is opposite to what should be expected from much of the international relations literature; rather, it supports the observations made by recent anthropological studies. Years with below average rainfall tend to have a peaceful effect on the following year and less robustly so for the current year as well. Little support is found for the notion that scarcity of farmland fuels violence in itself or in election years. More densely populated areas – not areas with a low land per capita ratio – run a higher risk of conflict. Election years systematically see more violence, however. The findings therefore support the notion that large-scale intergroup violence is driven by calculation and political gain rather than desperate scrambles for scarce land, pasture, and water resources.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Theisen, Ole Magnus},
	month = jan,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {81--96},
}

The evidence of coming climate change has generated catastrophe-like statements of a future where a warmer, wetter, and wilder climate leads to a surge in migrant streams and gives rise to new wars. Although highly popular in policy circles, few of these claims are based on systematic evidence. Using a most-likely case design on Kenya 1989–2004, with new geographically disaggregated data on armed conflicts below the common civil conflict level, this study finds that climatic factors do influence the risk of conflicts and violent events. The effect is opposite to what should be expected from much of the international relations literature; rather, it supports the observations made by recent anthropological studies. Years with below average rainfall tend to have a peaceful effect on the following year and less robustly so for the current year as well. Little support is found for the notion that scarcity of farmland fuels violence in itself or in election years. More densely populated areas – not areas with a low land per capita ratio – run a higher risk of conflict. Election years systematically see more violence, however. The findings therefore support the notion that large-scale intergroup violence is driven by calculation and political gain rather than desperate scrambles for scarce land, pasture, and water resources.

@article{weitzman_ghg_2012,
	title = {{GHG} {Targets} as {Insurance} {Against} {Catastrophic} {Climate} {Damages}},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {10973923},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1467-9779.2011.01539.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9779.2011.01539.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-07-31},
	journal = {Journal of Public Economic Theory},
	author = {Weitzman, Martin L.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {221--244},
}

@article{webster_analysis_2012,
	title = {Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0260-0},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0260-0},
	abstract = {Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-06-10},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Webster, Mort and Sokolov, Andrei P. and Reilly, John M. and Forest, Chris E. and Paltsev, Sergey and Schlosser, Adam and Wang, Chien and Kicklighter, David and Sarofim, Marcus and Melillo, Jerry and Prinn, Ronald G. and Jacoby, Henry D.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {569--583},
}

Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model.

@book{noauthor_national_2012,
	address = {Washington, D.C.},
	title = {National {Strategy} for {Advancing} {Climate} {Modeling}, {A}},
	isbn = {978-0-309-25977-4},
	url = {http://www.nap.edu/catalog/13430},
	abstract = {As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress.

Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments.

In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.},
	urldate = {2017-06-07},
	publisher = {National Academies Press},
	month = dec,
	year = {2012},
	doi = {10.17226/13430},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.

@misc{noauthor_turn_2012,
	title = {Turn {Down} the {Heat} : {Why} a 4°{C} {Warmer} {World} {Must} {Be} {Avoided}},
	url = {http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/865571468149107611/Turn-down-the-heat-why-a-4-C-warmer-world-must-be-avoided},
	publisher = {World Bank},
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

@article{butzer_collapse_2012,
	title = {Collapse, environment, and society},
	volume = {109},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1114845109},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1114845109},
	abstract = {Historical collapse of ancient states poses intriguing social-ecological questions, as well as potential applications to global change and contemporary strategies for sustainability. Five Old World case studies are developed to identify interactive inputs, triggers, and feedbacks in devolution. Collapse is multicausal and rarely abrupt. Political simplification undermines traditional structures of authority to favor militarization, whereas disintegration is preconditioned or triggered by acute stress (insecurity, environmental or economic crises, famine), with breakdown accompanied or followed by demographic decline. Undue attention to stressors risks underestimating the intricate interplay of environmental, political, and sociocultural resilience in limiting the damages of collapse or in facilitating reconstruction. The conceptual model emphasizes resilience, as well as the historical roles of leaders, elites, and ideology. However, a historical model cannot simply be applied to contemporary problems of sustainability without adjustment for cumulative information and increasing possibilities for popular participation. Between the 14th and 18th centuries, Western Europe responded to environmental crises by innovation and intensification; such modernization was decentralized, protracted, flexible, and broadly based. Much of the current alarmist literature that claims to draw from historical experience is poorly focused, simplistic, and unhelpful. It fails to appreciate that resilience and readaptation depend on identified options, improved understanding, cultural solidarity, enlightened leadership, and opportunities for participation and fresh ideas.},
	language = {en},
	number = {10},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Butzer, K. W.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {3632--3639},
}

Historical collapse of ancient states poses intriguing social-ecological questions, as well as potential applications to global change and contemporary strategies for sustainability. Five Old World case studies are developed to identify interactive inputs, triggers, and feedbacks in devolution. Collapse is multicausal and rarely abrupt. Political simplification undermines traditional structures of authority to favor militarization, whereas disintegration is preconditioned or triggered by acute stress (insecurity, environmental or economic crises, famine), with breakdown accompanied or followed by demographic decline. Undue attention to stressors risks underestimating the intricate interplay of environmental, political, and sociocultural resilience in limiting the damages of collapse or in facilitating reconstruction. The conceptual model emphasizes resilience, as well as the historical roles of leaders, elites, and ideology. However, a historical model cannot simply be applied to contemporary problems of sustainability without adjustment for cumulative information and increasing possibilities for popular participation. Between the 14th and 18th centuries, Western Europe responded to environmental crises by innovation and intensification; such modernization was decentralized, protracted, flexible, and broadly based. Much of the current alarmist literature that claims to draw from historical experience is poorly focused, simplistic, and unhelpful. It fails to appreciate that resilience and readaptation depend on identified options, improved understanding, cultural solidarity, enlightened leadership, and opportunities for participation and fresh ideas.

@article{zhang_causality_2011,
	title = {The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis},
	volume = {108},
	copyright = {©  . Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/108/42/17296},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1104268108},
	abstract = {Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.},
	language = {en},
	number = {42},
	urldate = {2018-10-07},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Zhang, David D. and Lee, Harry F. and Wang, Cong and Li, Baosheng and Pei, Qing and Zhang, Jane and An, Yulun},
	month = oct,
	year = {2011},
	pmid = {21969578},
	keywords = {Granger Causality Analysis, climate-driven economy, grain price},
	pages = {17296--17301},
}

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

@article{larrick_temper_2011,
	title = {Temper, temperature, and temptation: {Heat}-related retaliation in baseball},
	volume = {22},
	shorttitle = {Temper, temperature, and temptation},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Psychological Science},
	author = {Larrick, Richard P. and Timmerman, Thomas A. and Carton, Andrew M. and Abrevaya, Jason},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {423--428},
}

@article{hsiang_civil_2011,
	title = {Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate},
	volume = {476},
	number = {7361},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Meng, Kyle C. and Cane, Mark A.},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {438},
}

@techreport{cervellati_disease_2011,
	address = {Rochester, NY},
	type = {{SSRN} {Scholarly} {Paper}},
	title = {Disease {Environment} and {Civil} {Conflicts}},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1806415},
	abstract = {This paper tests the hypothesis that a high and persistent exposure to infectious diseases increases the likelihood of civil conflicts. Diseases that are difficult to prevent and treat may reduce the opportunity costs of violent activities, both directly and indirectly. The analysis exploits new data on the number of multi-host vector-transmitted infectious diseases that are endemic in each country. As consequence of their specific features, the presence of these pathogens in a country is closely related to geo-climatological conditions and exogenous to civil conflict. The findings document that a larger disease richness is a statistically robust and quantitatively relevant determinant of civil conflicts for the period 1960-2004. Exploiting within country variation, the findings also document that interactions between climatological shocks in terms of droughts and the disease environment have a significant effect on the risk of civil wars. The results are robust to different specifications, data sets and estimation methods, and suggest that the persistent exposure to a more unfavorable environment in terms of disease richness is an important determinant of the incidence of civil conflict. The results also suggest the potential relevance of a channel linking geography to economic development that has not been investigated in the literature.},
	language = {en},
	number = {ID 1806415},
	urldate = {2018-10-06},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	author = {Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe and Valmori, Simona},
	month = apr,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {civil conflict, civil war, disease environment, multi-host vector-transmitted pathogens},
}

This paper tests the hypothesis that a high and persistent exposure to infectious diseases increases the likelihood of civil conflicts. Diseases that are difficult to prevent and treat may reduce the opportunity costs of violent activities, both directly and indirectly. The analysis exploits new data on the number of multi-host vector-transmitted infectious diseases that are endemic in each country. As consequence of their specific features, the presence of these pathogens in a country is closely related to geo-climatological conditions and exogenous to civil conflict. The findings document that a larger disease richness is a statistically robust and quantitatively relevant determinant of civil conflicts for the period 1960-2004. Exploiting within country variation, the findings also document that interactions between climatological shocks in terms of droughts and the disease environment have a significant effect on the risk of civil wars. The results are robust to different specifications, data sets and estimation methods, and suggest that the persistent exposure to a more unfavorable environment in terms of disease richness is an important determinant of the incidence of civil conflict. The results also suggest the potential relevance of a channel linking geography to economic development that has not been investigated in the literature.

@article{buntgen_2500_2011,
	title = {2500 years of {European} climate variability and human susceptibility},
	volume = {331},
	number = {6017},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Büntgen, Ulf and Tegel, Willy and Nicolussi, Kurt and McCormick, Michael and Frank, David and Trouet, Valerie and Kaplan, Jed O. and Herzig, Franz and Heussner, Karl-Uwe and Wanner, Heinz},
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {578--582},
}

@article{bruckner_rain_2011,
	title = {Rain and the democratic window of opportunity},
	volume = {79},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Econometrica},
	author = {Brückner, Markus and Ciccone, Antonio},
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Sector: Violence},
	pages = {923--947},
}

@article{warren_role_2011,
	title = {Role of {Interactions} in a {World} {Implementing} {Adaptation} and {Mitigation} {Solutions} to {Climate} {Change}, {The}},
	volume = {369},
	issn = {1364-503X, 1471-2962},
	url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/doi/10.1098/rsta.2010.0271},
	doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0271},
	abstract = {The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4°C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2°C world. In a 4°C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4°C world. By contrast, a 2°C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth’s forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2°C or a 4°C world.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1934},
	urldate = {2017-07-31},
	journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
	author = {Warren, R.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {Damages, GA, Geography: None, Method: Litearture Review, Sector: Adaptation, Sector: Mitigation, Sector: SCC Review or Discussion, Tags Edited},
	pages = {217--241},
}

The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4°C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2°C world. In a 4°C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4°C world. By contrast, a 2°C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth’s forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2°C or a 4°C world.

@article{van_vuuren_representative_2011,
	title = {Representative {Concentration} {Pathways}: an {Overview}, {The}},
	volume = {109},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {The representative concentration pathways},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z},
	abstract = {This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m2. The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 × 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1-2},
	urldate = {2017-06-10},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Edmonds, Jae and Kainuma, Mikiko and Riahi, Keywan and Thomson, Allison and Hibbard, Kathy and Hurtt, George C. and Kram, Tom and Krey, Volker and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Masui, Toshihiko and Meinshausen, Malte and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Smith, Steven J. and Rose, Steven K.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {GA, Geography: Global, IAM: Yes, Method: Other, Other SCC, Tags Edited},
	pages = {5--31},
}

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m2. The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 × 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.

@article{ciscar_physical_2011,
	title = {Physical and economic consequences of climate change in {Europe}},
	volume = {108},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1011612108},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1011612108},
	abstract = {Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1\%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2017-05-17},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Ciscar, J.-C. and Iglesias, A. and Feyen, L. and Szabo, L. and Van Regemorter, D. and Amelung, B. and Nicholls, R. and Watkiss, P. and Christensen, O. B. and Dankers, R. and Garrote, L. and Goodess, C. M. and Hunt, A. and Moreno, A. and Richards, J. and Soria, A.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Europe, IAM: Yes, Sector: Agriculture, Sector: Health, Tags Edited, Valuation: Yes},
	pages = {2678--2683},
}

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

@article{ciccone_economic_2011,
	title = {Economic {Shocks} and {Civil} {Conflict}: {A} {Comment}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1945-7782},
	shorttitle = {Economic {Shocks} and {Civil} {Conflict}},
	url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.3.4.215},
	doi = {10.1257/app.3.4.215},
	abstract = {Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-11-21},
	journal = {American Economic Journal: Applied Economics},
	author = {Ciccone, Antonio},
	month = oct,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {DR, Damages, Geography: Africa, Method: Empirical, Sector: Conflict, Tags Edited},
	pages = {215--227},
}

Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)

@article{beguin_opposing_2011,
	title = {The opposing effects of climate change and socio-economic development on the global distribution of malaria},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {0959-3780},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378011000859},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.06.001},
	abstract = {The current global geographic distribution of malaria results from a complex interaction between climatic and non-climatic factors. Over the past century, socio-economic development and public health measures have contributed to a marked contraction in the distribution of malaria. Previous assessments of the potential impact of global changes on malaria have not quantified the effects of non-climate factors. In this paper, we describe an empirical model of the past, present and future-potential geographic distribution of malaria which incorporates both the effects of climate change and of socio-economic development. A logistic regression model using temperature, precipitation and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) identifies the recent global geographic distribution of malaria with high accuracy (sensitivity 85\% and specificity 95\%). Empirically, climate factors have a substantial effect on malaria transmission in countries where GDPpc is currently less than US\$20,000. Using projections of future climate, GDPpc and population consistent with the IPCC A1B scenario, we estimate the potential future population living in areas where malaria can be transmitted in 2030 and 2050. In 2050, the projected population at risk is approximately 5.2 billion when considering climatic effects only, 1.95 billion when considering the combined effects of GDP and climate, and 1.74 billion when considering GDP effects only. Under the A1B scenario, we project that climate change has much weaker effects on malaria than GDPpc increase. This outcome is, however, dependent on optimistic estimates of continued socioeconomic development. Even then, climate change has important effects on the projected distribution of malaria, leading to an increase of over 200 million in the projected population at risk.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-12-12},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Béguin, Andreas and Hales, Simon and Rocklöv, Joacim and Åström, Christofer and Louis, Valérie R. and Sauerborn, Rainer},
	month = oct,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {1209--1214},
}

The current global geographic distribution of malaria results from a complex interaction between climatic and non-climatic factors. Over the past century, socio-economic development and public health measures have contributed to a marked contraction in the distribution of malaria. Previous assessments of the potential impact of global changes on malaria have not quantified the effects of non-climate factors. In this paper, we describe an empirical model of the past, present and future-potential geographic distribution of malaria which incorporates both the effects of climate change and of socio-economic development. A logistic regression model using temperature, precipitation and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) identifies the recent global geographic distribution of malaria with high accuracy (sensitivity 85% and specificity 95%). Empirically, climate factors have a substantial effect on malaria transmission in countries where GDPpc is currently less than US$20,000. Using projections of future climate, GDPpc and population consistent with the IPCC A1B scenario, we estimate the potential future population living in areas where malaria can be transmitted in 2030 and 2050. In 2050, the projected population at risk is approximately 5.2 billion when considering climatic effects only, 1.95 billion when considering the combined effects of GDP and climate, and 1.74 billion when considering GDP effects only. Under the A1B scenario, we project that climate change has much weaker effects on malaria than GDPpc increase. This outcome is, however, dependent on optimistic estimates of continued socioeconomic development. Even then, climate change has important effects on the projected distribution of malaria, leading to an increase of over 200 million in the projected population at risk.

@article{oudin_astrom_heat_2011,
	title = {Heat wave impact on morbidity and mortality in the elderly population: {A} review of recent studies},
	volume = {69},
	issn = {0378-5122},
	shorttitle = {Heat wave impact on morbidity and mortality in the elderly population},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378512211000806},
	doi = {10.1016/j.maturitas.2011.03.008},
	abstract = {The on-going climate change is predicted to yield a growing number of extreme climate events which will increase in both intensity and frequency. Increased longevity is changing society's demographics. It is very likely this will have a direct impact on population health. Many studies have previously shown that the elderly in a society are among the most vulnerable to heat waves. With a rapidly growing number of publications on this subject the objective was to review the recent literature for research regarding the impact of heat waves and elevated temperature on the elderly with regards to mortality and morbidity. PubMed was searched to identify studies published in English between 1st of January 2008 and 31st of December 2010 using the following key words: heat wave, mortality, morbidity, elderly and temperature. The relationship between high temperature and mortality and/or morbidity had to be studied. Results for the elderly had to be provided. Six studies of temperature–morbidity-relationship were found and 24 studies of temperature–mortality-relationship. Studies consistently reported increases in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, as appeared also respiratory admissions to do during hot days and heat waves. However, the number of studies on morbidity published was much fewer. Few studies reported social, medical and environmental susceptibility factors. Future research should focus on studying susceptibilities and to non-fatal events which are not as studied as mortality. Studies on the modification of type of urban environment, housing and mortality and morbidity in the elderly population are also needed.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-12-04},
	journal = {Maturitas},
	author = {Oudin Åström, Daniel and Bertil, Forsberg and Joacim, Rocklöv},
	month = jun,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {99--105},
}

The on-going climate change is predicted to yield a growing number of extreme climate events which will increase in both intensity and frequency. Increased longevity is changing society's demographics. It is very likely this will have a direct impact on population health. Many studies have previously shown that the elderly in a society are among the most vulnerable to heat waves. With a rapidly growing number of publications on this subject the objective was to review the recent literature for research regarding the impact of heat waves and elevated temperature on the elderly with regards to mortality and morbidity. PubMed was searched to identify studies published in English between 1st of January 2008 and 31st of December 2010 using the following key words: heat wave, mortality, morbidity, elderly and temperature. The relationship between high temperature and mortality and/or morbidity had to be studied. Results for the elderly had to be provided. Six studies of temperature–morbidity-relationship were found and 24 studies of temperature–mortality-relationship. Studies consistently reported increases in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, as appeared also respiratory admissions to do during hot days and heat waves. However, the number of studies on morbidity published was much fewer. Few studies reported social, medical and environmental susceptibility factors. Future research should focus on studying susceptibilities and to non-fatal events which are not as studied as mortality. Studies on the modification of type of urban environment, housing and mortality and morbidity in the elderly population are also needed.

@article{huang_projecting_2011,
	title = {Projecting {Future} {Heat}-{Related} {Mortality} under {Climate} {Change} {Scenarios}: {A} {Systematic} {Review}},
	volume = {119},
	issn = {0091-6765},
	shorttitle = {Projecting {Future} {Heat}-{Related} {Mortality} under {Climate} {Change} {Scenarios}},
	url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3261978/},
	doi = {10.1289/ehp.1103456},
	abstract = {Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality., Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios., Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010., Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement., Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.},
	number = {12},
	urldate = {2017-12-04},
	journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
	author = {Huang, Cunrui and Barnett, Adrian Gerard and Wang, Xiaoming and Vaneckova, Pavla and FitzGerald, Gerard and Tong, Shilu},
	month = dec,
	year = {2011},
	pmid = {21816703},
	pmcid = {PMC3261978},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {1681--1690},
}

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality., Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios., Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010., Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement., Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

@article{nordhaus_economics_2011,
	title = {Economics of {Tail} {Events} with an {Application} to {Climate} {Change}, {The}},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {1750-6816, 1750-6824},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/reep/rer004},
	doi = {10.1093/reep/rer004},
	abstract = {From time to time, something occurs that is outside the range of what is normally expected. For reasons that will soon become clear, I call this a tail event. Some tail events are unremarkable, such as an e-mail about a large inheritance that awaits you in Nigeria. Others may change the course of history. Momentous tail events include the detonation of the first atomic weapon over Hiroshima in 1945, the sharp rise in oil prices in 1973, the 23 percent fall in stock prices in October 19, 1987, the destruction of the World Trade Center towers in 2001, and the meltdown of the world financial system in 2007–2008. A tail event is an outcome, which, from the perspective of the frequency of historical events or perhaps only from intuition, should happen only once in a thousand or million or centillion years. Tail events are more than statistical curiosities. In some cases, they may be so important that they dominate the way we think about our options and our strategies. Obviously, tail events dominate thinking about nuclear weapons. Less obvious is how to deal with tail events in economics. One example of how tail risk has changed economic policy is in the area of finance. In response to the meltdown of the banking system in 2007–2008, the theoretical approach to bank regulation has moved toward containing ‘‘systemic risk’’ rather than individual bank risk. Is there a general theory of economic policy concerning tail events? In an important paper,
Weitzman (2009) has proposed what he calls a dismal theorem. He summarizes the theorem as follows: ‘‘[T]he catastrophe-insurance aspect of such a fat-tailed unlimited-exposure situation, which can never be fully learned away, can dominate the social-discounting aspect, the pure-risk aspect, and the consumption-smoothing aspect.’’1 The general idea is that under limited conditions concerning the structure of uncertainty and societal preferences, the expected loss from certain risks such as climate change is infinite and that standard economic analysis cannot be applied.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-09-19},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	author = {Nordhaus, W. D.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {240--257},
}

From time to time, something occurs that is outside the range of what is normally expected. For reasons that will soon become clear, I call this a tail event. Some tail events are unremarkable, such as an e-mail about a large inheritance that awaits you in Nigeria. Others may change the course of history. Momentous tail events include the detonation of the first atomic weapon over Hiroshima in 1945, the sharp rise in oil prices in 1973, the 23 percent fall in stock prices in October 19, 1987, the destruction of the World Trade Center towers in 2001, and the meltdown of the world financial system in 2007–2008. A tail event is an outcome, which, from the perspective of the frequency of historical events or perhaps only from intuition, should happen only once in a thousand or million or centillion years. Tail events are more than statistical curiosities. In some cases, they may be so important that they dominate the way we think about our options and our strategies. Obviously, tail events dominate thinking about nuclear weapons. Less obvious is how to deal with tail events in economics. One example of how tail risk has changed economic policy is in the area of finance. In response to the meltdown of the banking system in 2007–2008, the theoretical approach to bank regulation has moved toward containing ‘‘systemic risk’’ rather than individual bank risk. Is there a general theory of economic policy concerning tail events? In an important paper, Weitzman (2009) has proposed what he calls a dismal theorem. He summarizes the theorem as follows: ‘‘[T]he catastrophe-insurance aspect of such a fat-tailed unlimited-exposure situation, which can never be fully learned away, can dominate the social-discounting aspect, the pure-risk aspect, and the consumption-smoothing aspect.’’1 The general idea is that under limited conditions concerning the structure of uncertainty and societal preferences, the expected loss from certain risks such as climate change is infinite and that standard economic analysis cannot be applied.

@techreport{nordhaus_estimates_2011,
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	title = {Estimates of the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}: {Background} and {Results} from the {RICE}-2011 {Model}},
	shorttitle = {Estimates of the {Social} {Cost} of {Carbon}},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17540.pdf},
	abstract = {A new and important concept in global warming economics and policy is the social cost of carbon or SCC. This concept represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon-dioxide emissions or its equivalent. The present study describes the development of the concept as well as its analytical background. We estimate the SCC using an updated version of the RICE-2011 model. Additional concerns are uncertainty about different aspects of global warming as well as the treatment of different countries or generations. The most important results are: First, the estimated social cost of carbon for the current time (2015) including uncertainty, equity weighting, and risk aversion is \$44 per ton of carbon (or \$12 per ton CO2) in 2005 US\$ and international prices). Second, including uncertainty increases the expected value of the SCC by approximately 8 percent. Third, equity weighting generally tends to reduce the SCC. Finally, the major open issue concerning the SCC continues to be the appropriate discount rate.},
	language = {en},
	number = {w17540},
	urldate = {2017-05-22},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Nordhaus, William},
	month = oct,
	year = {2011},
	doi = {10.3386/w17540},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

A new and important concept in global warming economics and policy is the social cost of carbon or SCC. This concept represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon-dioxide emissions or its equivalent. The present study describes the development of the concept as well as its analytical background. We estimate the SCC using an updated version of the RICE-2011 model. Additional concerns are uncertainty about different aspects of global warming as well as the treatment of different countries or generations. The most important results are: First, the estimated social cost of carbon for the current time (2015) including uncertainty, equity weighting, and risk aversion is $44 per ton of carbon (or $12 per ton CO2) in 2005 US$ and international prices). Second, including uncertainty increases the expected value of the SCC by approximately 8 percent. Third, equity weighting generally tends to reduce the SCC. Finally, the major open issue concerning the SCC continues to be the appropriate discount rate.

@article{miguel_re-examining_2011,
	title = {Re-examining {Economic} {Shocks} and {Civil} {Conflict}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1945-7782, 1945-7790},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/app.3.4.228},
	doi = {10.1257/app.3.4.228},
	abstract = {Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation as an IV for growth. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, MSS's findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-11-21},
	journal = {American Economic Journal: Applied Economics},
	author = {Miguel, Edward and Satyanath, Shanker},
	month = oct,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {228--232},
}

Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation as an IV for growth. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, MSS's findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence.

@article{lobell_nonlinear_2011,
	title = {Nonlinear heat effects on {African} maize as evidenced by historical yield trials},
	volume = {1},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1043},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate1043},
	abstract = {New approaches are needed to accelerate understanding of climate impacts on crop yields, particularly in tropical regions. Past studies have relied mainly on crop-simulation models1, 2 or statistical analyses based on reported harvest data3, 4, each with considerable uncertainties and limited applicability to tropical systems. However, a wealth of historical crop-trial data exists in the tropics that has been previously untapped for climate research. Using a data set of more than 20,000 historical maize trials in Africa, combined with daily weather data, we show a nonlinear relationship between warming and yields. Each degree day spent above 30 °C reduced the final yield by 1\% under optimal rain-fed conditions, and by 1.7\% under drought conditions. These results are consistent with studies of temperate maize germplasm in other regions, and indicate the key role of moisture in maize’s ability to cope with heat. Roughly 65\% of present maize-growing areas in Africa would experience yield losses for 1 °C of warming under optimal rain-fed management, with 100\% of areas harmed by warming under drought conditions. The results indicate that data generated by international networks of crop experimenters represent a potential boon to research aimed at quantifying climate impacts and prioritizing adaptation responses, especially in regions such as Africa that are typically thought to be data-poor.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Lobell, David B. and Bänziger, Marianne and Magorokosho, Cosmos and Vivek, Bindiganavile},
	month = mar,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {42--45},
}

New approaches are needed to accelerate understanding of climate impacts on crop yields, particularly in tropical regions. Past studies have relied mainly on crop-simulation models1, 2 or statistical analyses based on reported harvest data3, 4, each with considerable uncertainties and limited applicability to tropical systems. However, a wealth of historical crop-trial data exists in the tropics that has been previously untapped for climate research. Using a data set of more than 20,000 historical maize trials in Africa, combined with daily weather data, we show a nonlinear relationship between warming and yields. Each degree day spent above 30 °C reduced the final yield by 1% under optimal rain-fed conditions, and by 1.7% under drought conditions. These results are consistent with studies of temperate maize germplasm in other regions, and indicate the key role of moisture in maize’s ability to cope with heat. Roughly 65% of present maize-growing areas in Africa would experience yield losses for 1 °C of warming under optimal rain-fed management, with 100% of areas harmed by warming under drought conditions. The results indicate that data generated by international networks of crop experimenters represent a potential boon to research aimed at quantifying climate impacts and prioritizing adaptation responses, especially in regions such as Africa that are typically thought to be data-poor.

@article{lobell_climate_2011,
	title = {Climate {Trends} and {Global} {Crop} {Production} {Since} 1980},
	volume = {333},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1204531},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1204531},
	abstract = {Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5\%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6042},
	urldate = {2017-07-24},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Lobell, D. B. and Schlenker, W. and Costa-Roberts, J.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {CK, Untagged},
	pages = {616--620},
}

Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.

@misc{lagi_food_2011,
	title = {Food {Crises} and {Political} {Instability} in {North} {Africa} and the {Middle} {East}, {The}},
	url = {http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodcrises.html},
	abstract = {Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. We identify a specific food price threshold above which protests become likely. These observations suggest that protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations. If food prices remain high, there is likely to be persistent and increasing global social disruption. Underlying the food price peaks we also find an ongoing trend of increasing prices. We extrapolate these trends and identify a crossing point to the domain of high impacts, even without price peaks, in 2012-2013. This implies that avoiding global food crises and associated social unrest requires rapid and concerted action.},
	publisher = {New England Complex Systems Institute},
	author = {Lagi, M. and Bertrand, K. and Bar-Yam, Y.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. We identify a specific food price threshold above which protests become likely. These observations suggest that protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations. If food prices remain high, there is likely to be persistent and increasing global social disruption. Underlying the food price peaks we also find an ongoing trend of increasing prices. We extrapolate these trends and identify a crossing point to the domain of high impacts, even without price peaks, in 2012-2013. This implies that avoiding global food crises and associated social unrest requires rapid and concerted action.

@techreport{hsiang_essays_2011,
	title = {Essays on the {Social} {Impacts} of {Climate}},
	url = {https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/catalog/ac:161383},
	abstract = {It has been hypothesized that local or global climatic conditions can affect societies in a variety of ways.  However, to date, it has been difficult to measure the social impact of climate, so the scale and scope of its influence on populations remains mostly theoretical.  This dissertation integrates data and quantitative methods from climate science, economics and political science to develop new techniques for empirically measuring the the social impacts of climate. These techniques are used to measure large-scale dynamical relationships between climatological conditions and the response of the societies that are exposed to them. In general, the response of societies to climatological forcing is found to be larger than previously thought. The concluding chapter discusses how these findings may inform policies that govern the global environment and economic development.},
	urldate = {2017-09-28},
	institution = {Columbia University},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M.},
	year = {2011},
	doi = {10.7916/D8B2827T},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}

It has been hypothesized that local or global climatic conditions can affect societies in a variety of ways. However, to date, it has been difficult to measure the social impact of climate, so the scale and scope of its influence on populations remains mostly theoretical. This dissertation integrates data and quantitative methods from climate science, economics and political science to develop new techniques for empirically measuring the the social impacts of climate. These techniques are used to measure large-scale dynamical relationships between climatological conditions and the response of the societies that are exposed to them. In general, the response of societies to climatological forcing is found to be larger than previously thought. The concluding chapter discusses how these findings may inform policies that govern the global environment and economic development.

@article{hsiang_civil_2011,
	title = {Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate},
	volume = {476},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature10311},
	doi = {10.1038/nature10311},
	abstract = {It has been proposed that changes in global climate have been responsible for episodes of widespread violence and even the collapse of civilizations. Yet previous studies have not shown that violence can be attributed to the global climate, only that random weather events might be correlated with conflict in some cases. Here we directly associate planetary-scale climate changes with global patterns of civil conflict by examining the dominant interannual mode of the modern climate, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historians have argued that ENSO may have driven global patterns of civil conflict in the distant past, a hypothesis that we extend to the modern era and test quantitatively. Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This result, which indicates that ENSO may have had a role in 21\% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.},
	number = {7361},
	urldate = {2017-10-04},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Meng, Kyle C. and Cane, Mark A.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {438--441},
}

It has been proposed that changes in global climate have been responsible for episodes of widespread violence and even the collapse of civilizations. Yet previous studies have not shown that violence can be attributed to the global climate, only that random weather events might be correlated with conflict in some cases. Here we directly associate planetary-scale climate changes with global patterns of civil conflict by examining the dominant interannual mode of the modern climate, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historians have argued that ENSO may have driven global patterns of civil conflict in the distant past, a hypothesis that we extend to the modern era and test quantitatively. Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This result, which indicates that ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.

@misc{hope_page09_2011,
	title = {{PAGE09} {Integrated} {Assessment} {Model}: {A} {Technical} {Description}, {The}},
	url = {https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/workingpapers/wp1104.pdf},
	abstract = {The PAGE09 model is a greatly revised update of the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model of climate change. It calculates the impacts of climate change and the costs of abatement and adaptation policies under uncertainty for eight world regions and ten time periods. This paper describes the changes made to PAGE2002 to create PAGE09, and the reasons for making them, and fully documents the PAGE09 model.},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	publisher = {University of Cambridge Judge Business School},
	author = {Hope, Chris},
	month = apr,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

The PAGE09 model is a greatly revised update of the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model of climate change. It calculates the impacts of climate change and the costs of abatement and adaptation policies under uncertainty for eight world regions and ten time periods. This paper describes the changes made to PAGE2002 to create PAGE09, and the reasons for making them, and fully documents the PAGE09 model.

@misc{hope_social_2011,
	title = {Social {Cost} of {CO2} from the {PAGE09} {Model}, {The}},
	shorttitle = {Economics {Discussion} {Papers}, {No} 2011-39},
	url = {http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2011-39},
	abstract = {A new version of the PAGE integrated assessment model, PAGE09, is introduced. The most important scientific, impact, emission and adaptation inputs in the latest default version of the model, PAGE09 v1.7 are described. The scientific and economic impact results are presented for a business as usual (BAU) emissions scenario, and for a low emissions scenario which aims to have a 50\% chance of keeping the rise in global mean temperatures below 2 degC. Today's mean social cost of CO2 is about \$100 per tonne of CO2 in the BAU scenario, and about \$50 per tonne in the low emissions scenario. The major influences on the SCCO2 are found to be the transient climate response, the pure time preference rate, the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, the feedback response time of the earth and the weight on non-economic impacts. Less than 10\% of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in annex 1 from annex 1 emissions, while over 45\% comes from impacts in the rest of the world (RoW) from RoW emissions. About one third of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in the RoW caused by emissions in annex 1, while just over 10\% comes from impacts in annex 1 caused by emissions in the RoW.},
	urldate = {2017-07-11},
	publisher = {Kiel Institute for the World Economy},
	author = {Hope, Chris},
	month = sep,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

A new version of the PAGE integrated assessment model, PAGE09, is introduced. The most important scientific, impact, emission and adaptation inputs in the latest default version of the model, PAGE09 v1.7 are described. The scientific and economic impact results are presented for a business as usual (BAU) emissions scenario, and for a low emissions scenario which aims to have a 50% chance of keeping the rise in global mean temperatures below 2 degC. Today's mean social cost of CO2 is about $100 per tonne of CO2 in the BAU scenario, and about $50 per tonne in the low emissions scenario. The major influences on the SCCO2 are found to be the transient climate response, the pure time preference rate, the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, the feedback response time of the earth and the weight on non-economic impacts. Less than 10% of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in annex 1 from annex 1 emissions, while over 45% comes from impacts in the rest of the world (RoW) from RoW emissions. About one third of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in the RoW caused by emissions in annex 1, while just over 10% comes from impacts in annex 1 caused by emissions in the RoW.

@article{diffenbaugh_observational_2011,
	title = {Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries: {A} letter},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	shorttitle = {Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y},
	abstract = {Given the severe impacts of extreme heat on natural and human systems, we attempt to quantify the likelihood that rising greenhouse gas concentrations will result in a new, permanent heat regime in which the coolest warm-season of the 21st century is hotter than the hottest warm-season of the late 20th century. Our analyses of global climate model experiments and observational data reveal that many areas of the globe are likely to permanently move into such a climate space over the next four decades, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. In contrast to the common perception that high-latitude areas face the most accelerated response to global warming, our results demonstrate that in fact tropical areas exhibit the most immediate and robust emergence of unprecedented heat, with many tropical areas exhibiting a 50\% likelihood of permanently moving into a novel seasonal heat regime in the next two decades. We also find that global climate models are able to capture the observed intensification of seasonal hot conditions, increasing confidence in the projection of imminent, permanent emergence of unprecedented heat.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Scherer, Martin},
	month = aug,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {615--624},
}

Given the severe impacts of extreme heat on natural and human systems, we attempt to quantify the likelihood that rising greenhouse gas concentrations will result in a new, permanent heat regime in which the coolest warm-season of the 21st century is hotter than the hottest warm-season of the late 20th century. Our analyses of global climate model experiments and observational data reveal that many areas of the globe are likely to permanently move into such a climate space over the next four decades, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. In contrast to the common perception that high-latitude areas face the most accelerated response to global warming, our results demonstrate that in fact tropical areas exhibit the most immediate and robust emergence of unprecedented heat, with many tropical areas exhibiting a 50% likelihood of permanently moving into a novel seasonal heat regime in the next two decades. We also find that global climate models are able to capture the observed intensification of seasonal hot conditions, increasing confidence in the projection of imminent, permanent emergence of unprecedented heat.

@article{deschenes_climate_2011,
	title = {Climate {Change}, {Mortality}, and {Adaptation}: {Evidence} from {Annual} {Fluctuations} in {Weather} in the {US}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1945-7782, 1945-7790},
	shorttitle = {Climate {Change}, {Mortality}, and {Adaptation}},
	url = {http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/app.3.4.152},
	doi = {10.1257/app.3.4.152},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-06-29},
	journal = {American Economic Journal: Applied Economics},
	author = {Deschênes, Olivier and Greenstone, Michael},
	month = oct,
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
	pages = {152--185},
}

@misc{crost_risk_2011,
	title = {Risk and aversion in the integrated assessment of climate change},
	url = {http://escholarship.org/uc/item/1562s275},
	abstract = {We analyze the impact of damage uncertainty on optimal mitigation policies in the integrated assessment of climate change. Usually, these models analyzeuncertainty by averaging deterministic paths. In contrast, we build a consistentmodel deriving optimal policy rules underpersistent uncertainty. For this purpose,we construct a close relative of the DICE model in a recursive dynamic programming framework. Our recursive approach allows us to disentangle effects of risk, risk aversion, and aversion to intertemporal substitution. We analyze different ways how damage uncertainty can affect the DICE equations. We compare the optimal policies to those resulting from the wide-spread ex-ante uncertainty approach averaging deterministic paths.},
	publisher = {CUDARE Working Paper No. 1104},
	author = {Crost, B. and Traeger, C.P.},
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}

We analyze the impact of damage uncertainty on optimal mitigation policies in the integrated assessment of climate change. Usually, these models analyzeuncertainty by averaging deterministic paths. In contrast, we build a consistentmodel deriving optimal policy rules underpersistent uncertainty. For this purpose,we construct a close relative of the DICE model in a recursive dynamic programming framework. Our recursive approach allows us to disentangle effects of risk, risk aversion, and aversion to intertemporal substitution. We analyze different ways how damage uncertainty can affect the DICE equations. We compare the optimal policies to those resulting from the wide-spread ex-ante uncertainty approach averaging deterministic paths.

@misc{burgess_weather_2011,
	title = {Weather and death in {India}},
	url = {https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/upload/3db6cd07-abb7-416e-ac4a-5e8b58024cc0_burgess.pdf},
	abstract = {Weather fluctuations have shaped the economic activities of humans for centuries. And in poor, developing countries, where large swathes of the population continue to depend on basic agriculture, the weather continues to be a key determinant of production and employment. This raises the possibility that weather shocks may translate into increases in mortality. To investigate this possibility we examine the relationship between weather and death across Indian districts between 1957 and 2000. Our estimates imply that hot days (and deficient rainfall) cause large and statistically significant increases in mortality within a year of their occurrence. The effects are only observed for rural populations and not for urban populations, and it is only hot days that occur during the period when crops are growing in the fields that account for these effects. We also show that hot and dry weather depresses agricultural output and wages, and raises agricultural prices, in rural areas—but that similar effects are absent in urban areas. Using the coefficients from our analysis of Indian districts combined with two leading models of climate change we demonstrate that the mortality increasing impacts of global warming are likely to be far more strongly felt by rural Indians relative to their counterparts in urban India or the US.},
	author = {Burgess, Robin and Deschenes, Oliver and Donaldson, Dave and Greenstone, Michael},
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
}

Weather fluctuations have shaped the economic activities of humans for centuries. And in poor, developing countries, where large swathes of the population continue to depend on basic agriculture, the weather continues to be a key determinant of production and employment. This raises the possibility that weather shocks may translate into increases in mortality. To investigate this possibility we examine the relationship between weather and death across Indian districts between 1957 and 2000. Our estimates imply that hot days (and deficient rainfall) cause large and statistically significant increases in mortality within a year of their occurrence. The effects are only observed for rural populations and not for urban populations, and it is only hot days that occur during the period when crops are growing in the fields that account for these effects. We also show that hot and dry weather depresses agricultural output and wages, and raises agricultural prices, in rural areas—but that similar effects are absent in urban areas. Using the coefficients from our analysis of Indian districts combined with two leading models of climate change we demonstrate that the mortality increasing impacts of global warming are likely to be far more strongly felt by rural Indians relative to their counterparts in urban India or the US.

@article{bruckner_rain_2011,
	title = {Rain and the {Democratic} {Window} of {Opportunity}},
	volume = {79},
	issn = {0012-9682},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.3982/ECTA8183},
	doi = {10.3982/ECTA8183},
	abstract = {We show that democratic change may be triggered by transitory economic shocks. Our approach uses within-country variation in rainfall as a source of transitory shocks to sub-Saharan African economies. We find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. This result is consistent with the economic approach to political transitions, where transitory negative shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-10-08},
	journal = {Econometrica},
	author = {Bruckner, Markus and Ciccone, Antonio},
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {923--947},
}

We show that democratic change may be triggered by transitory economic shocks. Our approach uses within-country variation in rainfall as a source of transitory shocks to sub-Saharan African economies. We find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. This result is consistent with the economic approach to political transitions, where transitory negative shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.