A Wealth of Information: Augmenting the Survey of Consumer Finances to Characterize the Full U.S. Wealth Distribution

Figure 1: Figure 1: U.S. Wealth Concentration in the Survey of Consumer Finances Varying Concept and Coverage
The figure graphs estimated wealth concentration among the wealthiest one percent of U.S. families from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) between 1989 and 2019, incrementally adjusting the SCF as described in the text. The short-dashed black line displays estimates from the base SCF. The long-dashed black line adds wealth from defined benefit (DB) pension assets to the base SCF. The dotted black line adds Forbes 400 families and DB pension assets to the base SCF. The solid black line is estimated concentration from the "fully augmented" SCF, which adds wealth from adult financial independents in the same household, Forbes 400 families, and DB pension assets to the base SCF. The grey dotted and dashed lines replicate adjustments to the SCF proposed by Saez and Zucman (2020)--labeled SZ20--and Smith, Zidar, and Zwick (2020)--labeled SZZ20--respectively. Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances.

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Figure 2: U.S. Wealth Concentration in the Survey of Consumer Finances Varying Unit of Analysis
The figure graphs estimated wealth concentration among the top one percent of the distribution from the fully augmented Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), as defined in Figure 1, between 1989 and 2019, recasting the SCF data into alternate units of analysis. The dotted grey line depicts concentration among the top percent of families, the unit of observation in the SCF (but including financially independent members of the household), and the dashed grey line among the top percent of tax units. The black lines depict concentration among the top percent of individuals, whereby the solid black line--BGMV--splits wealth within couples leveraging the detailed asset ownership information in the SCF and the dashed black line follows current standard practice and splits wealth equally within couples. Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances.

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Figure 3: Reconciling Estimates of U.S. Wealth Concentration
The figure graphs estimated wealth concentration among the wealthiest one percent of individuals from the fully augmented Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), as defined in Figure 1--labeled BGMV--and the capitalization models proposed by Saez and Zucman (2020)--labeled SZ20--and Smith, Zidar, and Zwick (2020)--labeled SZZ20--between 1989 and 2019. The top panel depicts the main estimates from each, the middle panel incrementally conceptually aligns our estimates with SZ20 (splitting wealth equally within couples and removing unfunded DB and consumer durable assets, respectively), and the bottom panel incrementally conceptually aligns our estimates with SZZ20 (splitting wealth equally within couples and removing consumer durable assets, respectively). Our estimates are plotted in black, SZ20's in green, and SZZ20's in blue. The shaded region around the solid black line in the top panel represents the 95 percent confidence interval for the BGMV estimates. Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances; Saez and Zucman (2020a).

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Figure 4: Reconciling Estimates of U.S. Wealth Concentration
The figure graphs estimated wealth concentration among the wealthiest 0.1 percent of individuals from the fully augmented Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), as defined in Figure 1--labeled BGMV--and the capitalization models proposed by Saez and Zucman (2020)--labeled SZ20--and Smith, Zidar, and Zwick (2020)--labeled SZZ20-- between 1989 and 2019. The top panel depicts the main estimates from each, the middle panel incrementally conceptually aligns our estimates with SZ20 (splitting wealth equally within couples and removing unfunded DB and consumer durable assets, respectively), and the bottom panel incrementally conceptually aligns our estimates with SZZ20 (splitting wealth equally within couples and removing consumer durable assets, respectively). Our estimates are plotted in black, SZ20's in green, and SZZ20's in blue. The shaded region around the solid black line in the top panel represents the 95 percent confidence interval for the BGMV estimates. Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances; Saez and Zucman (2020a).

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Figure A.1: Spearman rank correlations between observed and modeled wealth of SCF respondents
Note: this figure describes the Spearman rank correlation between wealth observed in the SCF and the wealth predicted under sampling models for SCF families selected in the wealthy oversample. The two models used in the oversample are a "correlation model" and a "capitalization model," and the figure shows that the "correlation model" is generally more highly correlated with SCF wealth rankings, especially for the wealthiest families Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances, and U.S. Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, INSOLE File.

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Figure A.3: Aggregate income in SCF and income tax data
Note: panel A of this figure shows aggregate total and capital income in the SCF and administrative tax data, where total and capital income are defined in the text. Panel B shows aggregate total income and capital income of the top 0.1 percent as ranked by (a) total income and (b) by capital income. Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances, and U.S. Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Individual Public Use Tax File.

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Figure B.1: Share of wealth held across the wealth distribution by individuals
Note: this figure shows the share of wealth held by individuals in the BGMV estimates during the 1989-2019 period. The dashed lines indicate a 95% confidence interval surrounding the estimate of the share of wealth held by the wealthiest 1 percent. Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances.

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Figure B.2: Share of wealth held across the distribution by individuals in BGMV and SZ20
Note: this figure shows the share of wealth held by the top 10 percent and bottom 90 percent of individuals in the BGMV and SZ20 estimates. Trends and levels are broadly consistent with each other, helping to show that most of the discrepancies between the BGMV and SZ20 estimates occur at the top of the wealth distribution. Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances; appendix figure 1 from Saez and Zucman (2020b).

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Figure C.1: Income distribution for wealthiest 1 percent, 1989-2019 SCF
Note: this figure describes the income distribution of the wealthiest 1 percent of SCF tax units in the 1989-2019 surveys. The yellow line, for example, shows that the share of the wealthiest 1 percent that are also in the top 1 percent of the income distribution ranges from about 38 percent (in the 1992 SCF) to about 55 percent (in the 2004 SCF). The share of the wealthiest 1 percent that are in the 90-99^th percent of the income distribution (the "Next 9" percent) ranges between 34 percent (2004 SCF) and 50 percent (1998 SCF), and has been closer to 40 percent in recent years. Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances.

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Figure C.2: Wealthy portfolios
Note: this figure shows the portfolio of the wealthiest 0.1 percent of individuals estimated by SZ20 (top panel) and BGMV (bottom panel). Equity assets include both public and private C and S Corporations (directly-held), and business wealth includes all other forms of private business equity. Pension wealth includes all assets in DB and DC pension plans and in IRAs. Interest-bearing assets include checking and savings accounts and directly-held bonds. In the BGMV estimates, we assume that the Forbes families have the portfolio of the top 0.1% in the SZ20 portfolio. Source: Authors' calculations using Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Survey of Consumer Finances; figure 24 from Saez and Zucman (2020b).

Wealth components for the top 0.1% wealth share, % of total wealth [equal-split adults]

repeat SCF -- distribute Forbes share as in SZ20 top 0.1 portfolio

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