Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk. Bernoulli, D. Commentarii Academiae Scientiarum Imperialis Petropolitanae, 1738.
bibtex   
@article{ Bernoulli1738,
  author = {Bernoulli, Daniel},
  journal = {Commentarii Academiae Scientiarum Imperialis Petropolitanae},
  title = {Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk},
  year = {1738}
}

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