The World Demographic Transition. Davis, K. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 237:1--11, 1945.
bibtex   
@article{ Davis1945,
  author = {Davis, Kingsley},
  journal = {Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science},
  pages = {1--11},
  title = {The World Demographic Transition},
  volume = {237},
  year = {1945}
}
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