Air quality and public health impacts of \UK\ airports. Part II: Impacts and policy assessment

Air quality and public health impacts of \UK\ airports. Part II: Impacts and policy assessment . Yim, S. H., Stettler, M. E., & Barrett, S. R. Atmospheric Environment , 67:184 - 192, 2013.
$Air quality and public health impacts of \UK\ airports. Part II: Impacts and policy assessment [link]$ Paper doi abstract bibtex

The potential adverse human health impacts of emissions from \UK\ airports have become a significant issue of public concern. We produce an inventory of \UK\ airport emissions ï¿½?? including emissions from aircraft landing and takeoff operations, aircraft auxiliary power units (APUs) and ground support equipment (GSE) ï¿½?? with quantified uncertainty. Emissions due to more than 95% of \UK\ passenger enplanements are accounted for. We apply a multi-scale air quality modelling approach to assess the airÂ quality impacts of \UK\ airports. Using a concentration-response function we estimate that 110 (90% CI: 72ï¿½??160) early deaths occur in the \UK\ each year (based on 2005 data) due to \UK\ airport emissions. We estimate that up to 65% of the health impacts of \UK\ airports could be mitigated by desulphurising jet fuel, electrifying GSE, avoiding use of \APUs\ and use of single engine taxiing. Two plans for the expansion of \UK\ airport capacity are examined ï¿½?? expansion of London Heathrow and new hub airport in the Thames Estuary. Even if capacity is constrained, we find that the health impacts of \UK\ airports still increases by 170% in 2030 due to an increasing and aging population, increasing emissions, and a changing atmosphere. We estimate that if Heathrow were to be expanded as per previous \UK\ Government plans, UK-wide health impacts in 2030 would increase by 4% relative to the 2030 constrained case, but this increase could become a 48% reduction if emissions mitigation measures were employed. We calculate that 24% of UK-wide aviation-attributable early deaths could be avoided in 2030 if Heathrow were replaced by a new airport in Thames Estuary because the location is downwind of London, where this reduction occurs notwithstanding the increase in aircraft emissions. A Thames hub airport would (isolated from knock-on effects at other airports) cause 60ï¿½??70% fewer early deaths than an expanded Heathrow, or 55ï¿½??63% fewer early deaths than an unexpanded Heathrow. Finally, replacing Heathrow by a Thames Estuary airport combined with emissions mitigation measures would reduce UK-wide aviation-attributable early deaths by 56% in 2030 while increasing aircraft movements, which would represent aviation causing about the same level of adverse health impacts as today in absolute terms. We note that because aviation emissions are included in the \EU\ Emissions Trading Scheme, all options are CO2-neutral in terms of direct emissions (but not climate-neutral).

@article{Yim2013184,
title = "Air quality and public health impacts of \{UK\} airports. Part II: Impacts and policy assessment ",
journal = "Atmospheric Environment ",
volume = "67",
number = "",
pages = "184 - 192",
year = "2013",
note = "",
issn = "1352-2310",
doi = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.10.017",
url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231012009818",
author = "Steve H.L. Yim and Marc E.J. Stettler and Steven R.H. Barrett",
keywords = "Aviation",
keywords = "Airports",
keywords = "Aircraft",
keywords = "Emissions",
keywords = "Air quality",
keywords = "Particulate matter",
keywords = "Dispersion ",
abstract = "The potential adverse human health impacts of emissions from \{UK\} airports have become a significant issue of public concern. We produce an inventory of \{UK\} airport emissions ï¿½?? including emissions from aircraft landing and takeoff operations, aircraft auxiliary power units (APUs) and ground support equipment (GSE) ï¿½?? with quantified uncertainty. Emissions due to more than 95% of \{UK\} passenger enplanements are accounted for. We apply a multi-scale air quality modelling approach to assess the airÂ&nbsp;quality impacts of \{UK\} airports. Using a concentration-response function we estimate that 110 (90% CI: 72ï¿½??160) early deaths occur in the \{UK\} each year (based on 2005 data) due to \{UK\} airport emissions. We estimate that up to 65% of the health impacts of \{UK\} airports could be mitigated by desulphurising jet fuel, electrifying GSE, avoiding use of \{APUs\} and use of single engine taxiing. Two plans for the expansion of \{UK\} airport capacity are examined ï¿½?? expansion of London Heathrow and new hub airport in the Thames Estuary. Even if capacity is constrained, we find that the health impacts of \{UK\} airports still increases by 170% in 2030 due to an increasing and aging population, increasing emissions, and a changing atmosphere. We estimate that if Heathrow were to be expanded as per previous \{UK\} Government plans, UK-wide health impacts in 2030 would increase by 4% relative to the 2030 constrained case, but this increase could become a 48% reduction if emissions mitigation measures were employed. We calculate that 24% of UK-wide aviation-attributable early deaths could be avoided in 2030 if Heathrow were replaced by a new airport in Thames Estuary because the location is downwind of London, where this reduction occurs notwithstanding the increase in aircraft emissions. A Thames hub airport would (isolated from knock-on effects at other airports) cause 60ï¿½??70% fewer early deaths than an expanded Heathrow, or 55ï¿½??63% fewer early deaths than an unexpanded Heathrow. Finally, replacing Heathrow by a Thames Estuary airport combined with emissions mitigation measures would reduce UK-wide aviation-attributable early deaths by 56% in 2030 while increasing aircraft movements, which would represent aviation causing about the same level of adverse health impacts as today in absolute terms. We note that because aviation emissions are included in the \{EU\} Emissions Trading Scheme, all options are CO2-neutral in terms of direct emissions (but not climate-neutral). "
}

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