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\n  \n 2022\n \n \n (1)\n \n \n
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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Bayesian parameter inference for shallow subsurface modelling using field data and impacts on geothermal planning.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Kreitmair, M., J.; Makasis, N.; Menberg, K.; Bidarmaghz, A.; Farr, G., J.; Boon, D.; and Choudhary, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Data-Centric Engineering, 3(e32): in press. 2022.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n  \n \n\n \n link\n  \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n  \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n
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@article{\n title = {Bayesian parameter inference for shallow subsurface modelling using field data and impacts on geothermal planning},\n type = {article},\n year = {2022},\n keywords = {bayesian calibration,finite element methods,parameter inference,shallow geothermal energy,uncertainty},\n pages = {in press},\n volume = {3},\n id = {17588054-6115-3cb6-9da9-4252a6011e67},\n created = {2022-11-07T18:03:27.935Z},\n file_attached = {false},\n profile_id = {7f1be357-2d5e-31aa-a0e2-e4dabfed4143},\n last_modified = {2022-11-07T18:03:27.935Z},\n read = {false},\n starred = {false},\n authored = {true},\n confirmed = {true},\n hidden = {false},\n private_publication = {false},\n bibtype = {article},\n author = {Kreitmair, M. J. and Makasis, N. and Menberg, K. and Bidarmaghz, A. and Farr, G. J. and Boon, D. and Choudhary, R.},\n doi = {10.1017/dce.2022.32},\n journal = {Data-Centric Engineering},\n number = {e32}\n}
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\n  \n 2021\n \n \n (2)\n \n \n
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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Impact of simplifications on numerical modelling of the shallow subsurface at city-scale and implications for shallow geothermal potential.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Makasis, N.; Kreitmair, M., J.; Bidarmaghz, A.; Farr, G., J.; Scheidegger, J., M.; and Choudhary, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Science of the Total Environment, 791: 148236. 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n \"ImpactWebsite\n  \n \n\n \n \n doi\n  \n \n\n \n link\n  \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n  \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n  \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n
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@article{\n title = {Impact of simplifications on numerical modelling of the shallow subsurface at city-scale and implications for shallow geothermal potential},\n type = {article},\n year = {2021},\n keywords = {Heat transfer,Large-scale numerical modelling,Modelling simplifications,Shallow geothermal energy,Subsurface urban heat island,Underground climate change},\n pages = {148236},\n volume = {791},\n websites = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148236},\n publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},\n id = {05f1881e-c22b-38da-a7bc-eb1dbf510bcf},\n created = {2022-10-31T12:08:03.135Z},\n file_attached = {false},\n profile_id = {7f1be357-2d5e-31aa-a0e2-e4dabfed4143},\n last_modified = {2022-11-07T18:03:34.581Z},\n read = {false},\n starred = {false},\n authored = {true},\n confirmed = {true},\n hidden = {false},\n private_publication = {false},\n abstract = {Anthropogenic infrastructures in the shallow subsurface, such as heated basements, tunnels or shallow geothermal systems, are known to increase ground temperatures, particularly in urban areas. Numerical modelling helps inform on the extent of thermal influence of such structures, and its potential uses. Realistic modelling of the subsurface is often computationally costly and requires large amounts of data which is often not readily available, necessitating the use of modelling simplifications. This work presents a case-study on the city centre of Cardiff, UK, for which high resolution data is available, and compares modelling results when three key modelling components (namely ground elevation, hydraulic gradient distribution and basement geometry) are implemented either ‘realistically’, i.e. with high resolution data, or ‘simplified’, utilising commonly accepted modelling assumptions. Results are presented at a point (local) scale and at a domain (aggregate) scale to investigate the impacts such simplifications have on model outputs for different purposes. Comparison to measured data at individual locations shows that the accuracy of temperature outputs from numerical models is largely insensitive to simplification of the hydraulic gradient distribution implemented, while changes in basement geometry affect accuracy of the mean temperature predicted at a point by as much as 3.5 °C. At the domain scale, ground temperatures within the first 20 m show a notable increase (approximately 1 °C volume-averaged and 0.5 °C surface-averaged), while the average heat flux over the domain is about 0.06 W/m2 at 20 m depth. These increased temperatures result in beneficial conditions for shallow geothermal utilisation, producing drilling cost savings of around £1700 per typical household system or about 9% increase in thermal energy potential. Simplifications of basement geometry and (to a lesser degree) the hydraulics can result in an overestimation of these temperatures and therefore over-predict geothermal potential, while the elevation simplification showed little impact.},\n bibtype = {article},\n author = {Makasis, N. and Kreitmair, M. J. and Bidarmaghz, A. and Farr, G. J. and Scheidegger, J. M. and Choudhary, R.},\n doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148236},\n journal = {Science of the Total Environment}\n}
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\n\n\n
\n Anthropogenic infrastructures in the shallow subsurface, such as heated basements, tunnels or shallow geothermal systems, are known to increase ground temperatures, particularly in urban areas. Numerical modelling helps inform on the extent of thermal influence of such structures, and its potential uses. Realistic modelling of the subsurface is often computationally costly and requires large amounts of data which is often not readily available, necessitating the use of modelling simplifications. This work presents a case-study on the city centre of Cardiff, UK, for which high resolution data is available, and compares modelling results when three key modelling components (namely ground elevation, hydraulic gradient distribution and basement geometry) are implemented either ‘realistically’, i.e. with high resolution data, or ‘simplified’, utilising commonly accepted modelling assumptions. Results are presented at a point (local) scale and at a domain (aggregate) scale to investigate the impacts such simplifications have on model outputs for different purposes. Comparison to measured data at individual locations shows that the accuracy of temperature outputs from numerical models is largely insensitive to simplification of the hydraulic gradient distribution implemented, while changes in basement geometry affect accuracy of the mean temperature predicted at a point by as much as 3.5 °C. At the domain scale, ground temperatures within the first 20 m show a notable increase (approximately 1 °C volume-averaged and 0.5 °C surface-averaged), while the average heat flux over the domain is about 0.06 W/m2 at 20 m depth. These increased temperatures result in beneficial conditions for shallow geothermal utilisation, producing drilling cost savings of around £1700 per typical household system or about 9% increase in thermal energy potential. Simplifications of basement geometry and (to a lesser degree) the hydraulics can result in an overestimation of these temperatures and therefore over-predict geothermal potential, while the elevation simplification showed little impact.\n
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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Springer Theses: The Effect of Uncertainty on Tidal Stream Energy Resource Estimates.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Kreitmair, M., J.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Springer, 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n  \n \n\n \n link\n  \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n  \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n 
@book{\n title = {Springer Theses: The Effect of Uncertainty on Tidal Stream Energy Resource Estimates},\n type = {book},\n year = {2021},\n keywords = {Engineering Mathematics,Hydroenergy,Offshore Engineering},\n pages = {115},\n publisher = {Springer},\n city = {Cham, Denmark},\n id = {1f60e651-e53b-3480-a73a-ba4243b4a4b2},\n created = {2022-11-07T18:03:27.860Z},\n file_attached = {false},\n profile_id = {7f1be357-2d5e-31aa-a0e2-e4dabfed4143},\n last_modified = {2022-11-07T18:03:27.860Z},\n read = {false},\n starred = {false},\n authored = {true},\n confirmed = {true},\n hidden = {false},\n private_publication = {false},\n bibtype = {book},\n author = {Kreitmair, Monika Johanna},\n doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57658-5}\n}
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\n  \n 2020\n \n \n (2)\n \n \n
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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Effect of anthropogenic heat sources in the shallow subsurface at city-scale.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Kreitmair, M., J.; Makasis, N.; Bidarmaghz, A.; Terrington, R., L.; Farr, G., J.; Scheidegger, J., M.; and Choudhary, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n E3S Web of Conferences, 205. 2020.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n  \n \n\n \n link\n  \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n  \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n  \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n 
@article{\n title = {Effect of anthropogenic heat sources in the shallow subsurface at city-scale},\n type = {article},\n year = {2020},\n volume = {205},\n id = {a2cb8128-e617-3e9e-b283-9aba52a7121e},\n created = {2021-05-07T10:43:11.815Z},\n file_attached = {false},\n profile_id = {7f1be357-2d5e-31aa-a0e2-e4dabfed4143},\n last_modified = {2022-11-07T18:03:34.368Z},\n read = {false},\n starred = {false},\n authored = {true},\n confirmed = {true},\n hidden = {false},\n private_publication = {false},\n abstract = {Rapid rates of urbanisation are placing growing demands on cities for accommodation and transportation, with increasing numbers of basements and tunnel networks being built to meet these rising demands. Such subsurface structures constitute continuous heat sources and sinks, particularly if maintained at comfortable temperatures. At the city-scale, there is limited understanding of the effect of heat exchange of underground infrastructures with their environments, in part due to limited availability of long-term underground temperature data. The effects of underground temperature changes due anthropogenic heat fluxes can be significant, impacting ventilation and cooling costs of underground spaces, efficiency of geo-energy systems, quality and quantity of groundwater flow, and the health and maintenance of underground structures. In this paper we explore the impact of anthropogenic subsurface structures on the thermal climate of the shallow subsurface by developing a heat transfer model of the city of Cardiff, UK, utilising a recently developed semi-3D modelling approach.},\n bibtype = {article},\n author = {Kreitmair, M. J. and Makasis, Nikolas and Bidarmaghz, Asal and Terrington, Ricky L. and Farr, Gareth J. and Scheidegger, Johanna M. and Choudhary, Ruchi},\n doi = {10.1051/e3sconf/202020507002},\n journal = {E3S Web of Conferences}\n}
\n
\n\n\n
\n Rapid rates of urbanisation are placing growing demands on cities for accommodation and transportation, with increasing numbers of basements and tunnel networks being built to meet these rising demands. Such subsurface structures constitute continuous heat sources and sinks, particularly if maintained at comfortable temperatures. At the city-scale, there is limited understanding of the effect of heat exchange of underground infrastructures with their environments, in part due to limited availability of long-term underground temperature data. The effects of underground temperature changes due anthropogenic heat fluxes can be significant, impacting ventilation and cooling costs of underground spaces, efficiency of geo-energy systems, quality and quantity of groundwater flow, and the health and maintenance of underground structures. In this paper we explore the impact of anthropogenic subsurface structures on the thermal climate of the shallow subsurface by developing a heat transfer model of the city of Cardiff, UK, utilising a recently developed semi-3D modelling approach.\n
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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n The effect of bed roughness uncertainty on tidal stream power estimates for the Pentland Firth.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Kreitmair, M., J.; Adcock, T., A.; Borthwick, A., G.; Draper, S.; and van den Bremer, T., S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Royal Society Open Science, 7(1). 2020.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n  \n \n\n \n link\n  \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n  \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n  \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n 
@article{\n title = {The effect of bed roughness uncertainty on tidal stream power estimates for the Pentland Firth},\n type = {article},\n year = {2020},\n keywords = {Bed roughness,Bottom friction,Renewable energy,Resource assessment,Tidal power,Uncertainty},\n volume = {7},\n id = {e9d8f6c6-dce2-3a71-be46-fdf37633bdc6},\n created = {2022-08-08T14:09:24.272Z},\n file_attached = {false},\n profile_id = {7f1be357-2d5e-31aa-a0e2-e4dabfed4143},\n last_modified = {2022-11-07T18:03:34.372Z},\n read = {false},\n starred = {false},\n authored = {true},\n confirmed = {true},\n hidden = {false},\n private_publication = {false},\n abstract = {Uncertainty affects estimates of the power potential of tidal currents, resulting in large ranges in values reported for sites such as the Pentland Firth, UK. Kreitmair et al. (2019, R. Soc. open sci. 6, 180941. (doi:10.1098/rsos.191127)) have examined the effect of uncertainty in bottom friction on tidal power estimates by considering idealized theoretical models. The present paper considers the role of bottom friction uncertainty in a realistic numerical model of the Pentland Firth spanned by different fence configurations. We find that uncertainty in removable power estimates resulting from bed roughness uncertainty depends on the case considered, with relative uncertainty between 2% (for a fully spanned channel with small values of mean roughness and input uncertainty) and 44% (for an asymmetrically confined channel with high values of bed roughness and input uncertainty). Relative uncertainty in power estimates is generally smaller than (input) relative uncertainty in bottom friction by a factor of between 0.2 and 0.7, except for low turbine deployments and very high mean values of friction. This paper makes a start at quantifying uncertainty in tidal stream power estimates, and motivates further work for proper characterization of the resource, accounting for uncertainty inherent in resource modelling.},\n bibtype = {article},\n author = {Kreitmair, M. J. and Adcock, T. A.A. and Borthwick, A. G.L. and Draper, S. and van den Bremer, T. S.},\n doi = {10.1098/rsos.191127},\n journal = {Royal Society Open Science},\n number = {1}\n}
\n
\n\n\n
\n Uncertainty affects estimates of the power potential of tidal currents, resulting in large ranges in values reported for sites such as the Pentland Firth, UK. Kreitmair et al. (2019, R. Soc. open sci. 6, 180941. (doi:10.1098/rsos.191127)) have examined the effect of uncertainty in bottom friction on tidal power estimates by considering idealized theoretical models. The present paper considers the role of bottom friction uncertainty in a realistic numerical model of the Pentland Firth spanned by different fence configurations. We find that uncertainty in removable power estimates resulting from bed roughness uncertainty depends on the case considered, with relative uncertainty between 2% (for a fully spanned channel with small values of mean roughness and input uncertainty) and 44% (for an asymmetrically confined channel with high values of bed roughness and input uncertainty). Relative uncertainty in power estimates is generally smaller than (input) relative uncertainty in bottom friction by a factor of between 0.2 and 0.7, except for low turbine deployments and very high mean values of friction. This paper makes a start at quantifying uncertainty in tidal stream power estimates, and motivates further work for proper characterization of the resource, accounting for uncertainty inherent in resource modelling.\n
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\n  \n 2019\n \n \n (1)\n \n \n
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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n The effect of uncertain bottom friction on estimates of tidal current power.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Kreitmair, M., J.; Draper, S.; Borthwick, A., G., L.; and van den Bremer, T., S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Royal Society Open Science, 6(1). 2019.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n  \n \n\n \n link\n  \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n  \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n 
@article{\n title = {The effect of uncertain bottom friction on estimates of tidal current power},\n type = {article},\n year = {2019},\n keywords = {energy,fluid mechanics,ocean engineering},\n volume = {6},\n id = {72a1e70d-1b75-3358-bef7-a6fd106ab775},\n created = {2019-01-14T12:27:21.529Z},\n file_attached = {false},\n profile_id = {7f1be357-2d5e-31aa-a0e2-e4dabfed4143},\n last_modified = {2022-11-07T18:03:34.283Z},\n read = {true},\n starred = {false},\n authored = {true},\n confirmed = {true},\n hidden = {false},\n citation_key = {Kreitmair2019},\n private_publication = {false},\n bibtype = {article},\n author = {Kreitmair, M. J. and Draper, Scott and Borthwick, A. G. L. and van den Bremer, T. S.},\n doi = {10.1017/jfm.2012.515},\n journal = {Royal Society Open Science},\n number = {1}\n}
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\n  \n 2018\n \n \n (1)\n \n \n
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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Uncertainty Quantification in Tidal Energy Resource Assessment.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Kreitmair, M., J.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ph.D. Thesis, 2018.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n \"UncertaintyWebsite\n  \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n  \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n  \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n  \n \n \n\n\n\n
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@phdthesis{\n title = {Uncertainty Quantification in Tidal Energy Resource Assessment},\n type = {phdthesis},\n year = {2018},\n websites = {http://hdl.handle.net/1842/36084},\n institution = {University of Edinburgh},\n department = {School of Engineering},\n id = {5eddd3b7-78d2-3ab8-984b-005223e6a889},\n created = {2020-11-06T15:43:49.387Z},\n file_attached = {false},\n profile_id = {7f1be357-2d5e-31aa-a0e2-e4dabfed4143},\n last_modified = {2022-11-07T18:03:34.287Z},\n read = {false},\n starred = {false},\n authored = {true},\n confirmed = {true},\n hidden = {false},\n private_publication = {false},\n abstract = {In river and tidal stream power assessment, uncertainties arise from model assumptions and the inexact specification of physical and numerical model pa- rameters. Combined, such uncertainties can greatly affect power estimates for a given site. The thesis examines the effects of bed roughness and turbine drag uncertainties on turbine power estimates. An analytic model is developed for transfer of bed friction uncertainty to power extracted from turbines in a strait, representative of a river. A validated finite volume solver of the shallow water equations is developed and applied to simulate flow driven by a constant head difference through a one-dimensional strait. The presence of a turbine fence is included using enhanced bed friction. A parameter study examines the effect of uncertainty propagation from bed friction to power. Excellent agreement is obtained between the analytic and numerical power uncertainty estimates for a given input bed friction PDF. Perturbation methods are used to determine the leading-order effect of bot- tom friction uncertainty in tidal stream power assessment. The theoretical models consider quasi-steady flow in a channel completely spanned by tidal tur- bines, a similar channel but retaining the inertial term, and a circular turbine farm in laterally unconfined flow. It is found that changes to expected power depend on the dynamic balance in the channel, the turbine configuration, and the geometry of the site considered. Bottom friction uncertainty increases esti- mates of expected power in a fully-spanned channel, but has the reverse effect in laterally unconfined farms. The optimal number of turbines under bottom friction uncertainty is lower for a fully-spanned channel and higher in laterally unconfined farms. The effect of uncertainty in turbine drag is also considered. A standard methodology is presented for uncertainty propagation using gen- eral computational models. The methodology is tested using a shallow flow model of the Pentland Firth, where power statistics are determined according to input bed friction probability distribution, and the results compared against those from the (simplified) analytic perturbation approaches. Although the an- alytic models for channels perform reasonably well regarding the estimate of expected power, the predictions from the unconfined analytic model were not so satisfactory owing to the model assumptions. The methods for uncertainty transfer presented in the thesis could readily be applied to many other problems encountered in hydraulic engineering, such as river flow routing, urban flood risk, reservoir sedimentation, etc.},\n bibtype = {phdthesis},\n author = {Kreitmair, Monika Johanna}\n}
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\n In river and tidal stream power assessment, uncertainties arise from model assumptions and the inexact specification of physical and numerical model pa- rameters. Combined, such uncertainties can greatly affect power estimates for a given site. The thesis examines the effects of bed roughness and turbine drag uncertainties on turbine power estimates. An analytic model is developed for transfer of bed friction uncertainty to power extracted from turbines in a strait, representative of a river. A validated finite volume solver of the shallow water equations is developed and applied to simulate flow driven by a constant head difference through a one-dimensional strait. The presence of a turbine fence is included using enhanced bed friction. A parameter study examines the effect of uncertainty propagation from bed friction to power. Excellent agreement is obtained between the analytic and numerical power uncertainty estimates for a given input bed friction PDF. Perturbation methods are used to determine the leading-order effect of bot- tom friction uncertainty in tidal stream power assessment. The theoretical models consider quasi-steady flow in a channel completely spanned by tidal tur- bines, a similar channel but retaining the inertial term, and a circular turbine farm in laterally unconfined flow. It is found that changes to expected power depend on the dynamic balance in the channel, the turbine configuration, and the geometry of the site considered. Bottom friction uncertainty increases esti- mates of expected power in a fully-spanned channel, but has the reverse effect in laterally unconfined farms. The optimal number of turbines under bottom friction uncertainty is lower for a fully-spanned channel and higher in laterally unconfined farms. The effect of uncertainty in turbine drag is also considered. A standard methodology is presented for uncertainty propagation using gen- eral computational models. The methodology is tested using a shallow flow model of the Pentland Firth, where power statistics are determined according to input bed friction probability distribution, and the results compared against those from the (simplified) analytic perturbation approaches. Although the an- alytic models for channels perform reasonably well regarding the estimate of expected power, the predictions from the unconfined analytic model were not so satisfactory owing to the model assumptions. The methods for uncertainty transfer presented in the thesis could readily be applied to many other problems encountered in hydraulic engineering, such as river flow routing, urban flood risk, reservoir sedimentation, etc.\n
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