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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Employment Mismatches Drive Expectational Earnings Errors among Mozambican Graduates.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; Santos, R.; and Xirinda, G.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n The World Bank Economic Review, 38(1): 51–73. 2024.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2024employment,\n\ttitle={Employment Mismatches Drive Expectational Earnings Errors among {M}ozambican Graduates},\n\tauthor={Jones, Sam and Santos, Ricardo and Xirinda, Gimelgo},\n\tjournal={The World Bank Economic Review},\n\tvolume={38},\n\tnumber={1},\n\tpages={51--73},\n\tyear={2024},\n\tpublisher={Oxford University Press},\n\ttype    = {Article},\n\tkeywords    = {education, expectations, labour markets, graduates, Mozambique},\n\tabstract    = {Biased beliefs about future labor-market earnings are commonplace. Based on a longitudinal survey of graduate work transitions in Mozambique, this study assesses the contribution of employment mismatches to a large positive gap between expected (ex ante) and realized (ex post) earnings. Accounting for the simultaneous determination of pecuniary and non-pecuniary work characteristics, employment mismatches are found to be material and associated with large earnings penalties. A decomposition of these expectational errors shows that around two-thirds are attributable to employment mismatches, suggesting job seekers systematically overestimate the ease of securing “good jobs.”.},\n\tdoi = {10.1093/wber/lhad018}\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Firm profitability and forced wage labour in Portuguese Africa: Evidence from the Sena Sugar Estates, 1920-1974.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Gibbon, P.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Economic History Review, Forthcoming. 2024.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2024sena,\n\tauthor      = {Sam Jones and Peter Gibbon},\n\ttitle       = {Firm profitability and forced wage labour in {Portuguese Africa}: Evidence from the {Sena Sugar Estates}, 1920-1974},\n\tyear        = {2024},\n\ttype        = {Article},\n\tjournal     = {Economic History Review},\n\tvolume      = {Forthcoming},\n\tabstract    = {Forced wage labour in colonial-era Portuguese Africa came to encompass a majority of working age men and persisted until the early 1960s. Based on reconstructed financial records from the Sena Sugar Estates in today’s Mozambique, we estimate the long-run profitability of the firm. With this we associate rates of extraction from native labour, defined as the difference between actual levels of remuneration and those under counterfactual freer market conditions. We estimate coercion suppressed workers’ remuneration by about two fifths, representing a significant cost saving to the firm. However, a production function analysis indicates that coercion also negatively affected productivity. Using these results, we calculate the firm’s profitability might have remained broadly robust without forced wage labour. This suggests other factors, including fiscal imperatives and technological factors, likely contributed to the persistence of labour coercion in Mozambique.},\n\tkeywords    = {Mozambique, sugar, forced labour, colonial era}\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Digital Labour Platforms as Shock Absorbers: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mozambique.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Manhique, I.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of African Economies, forthcoming. 2024.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2024biscate,\n\tauthor      = {Sam Jones and Ivan Manhique},\n\ttitle       = {Digital Labour Platforms as Shock Absorbers: Evidence from the {COVID-19} Pandemic in {M}ozambique},\n\tyear        = {2024},\n\ttype        = {Article},\n\tvolume      = {forthcoming},\n\tabstract    = {Digital labour platforms have grown five-fold over the past decade, enabling significant expansion of gig work worldwide. We interrogate the critique that these platforms tend to amplify aggregate shocks for registered workers. Based on the universe of records from a matching platform for manual freelancers in Mozambique, we analyse how task supply and demand altered with the onset of COVID-19. Treating the pandemic as a structural break, which extends to an event study analysis, we find it was associated with a net increase in tasks demanded per worker, but no clear change in supply growth (new registrations). While these general trends are evident across multiple market segments, there is also evidence of relatively higher demand for female as compared to male workers during the pandemic. This suggests digital labour markets can help some workers adjust to economic shocks in low-income contexts.},\n\tjournal     = {Journal of African Economies},\n\tdoi         = {10.1093/jae/ejae002},\n\tkeywords    = {freelancers, COVID-19, economics shocks, Mozambique, informal sector},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n The gendered impact of digital jobs platforms: experimental evidence from Mozambique.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Sen, K.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n World Bank Economic Review, (forthcoming). 2024.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2024sen,\n\tauthor      = {Sam Jones and Kunal Sen},\n\ttitle       = {The gendered impact of digital jobs platforms: experimental evidence from {M}ozambique},\n\tyear        = {2024},\n\ttype        = {Article},\n\tnumber      = {forthcoming},\n\tjournal     = {World Bank Economic Review},\n\tabstract    = {This study examines the impact of digital labor market platforms on jobs outcomes using a randomized encouragement design embedded in a longitudinal survey of Mozambican technical-vocational college graduates. We differentiate between platforms targeting formal jobs, where jobseekers direct their search, and informal tasks, where clients seek workers. Our analysis reveals statistically insignificant intent-to-treat and complier-average treatment effects for headline employment outcomes in the full sample. Notably, while the average male moderately benefits from platform usage, women do not. Rather, they are less responsive to the encouragement nudge, and female treatment compliers report higher reservation wages and lower job search. This suggests digital platforms can inadvertently perpetuate gender disparities in labor markets.},\n\tkeywords    = {labor markets, digital platforms, gender, Mozambique}\n}\n\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Sheepskin effects and heterogenous wage-setting behaviour: Evidence from Mozambique.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jaeger, D. A.; and Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 2024/5, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), January 2024.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2024sheepskin,\n\tauthor = {David A. Jaeger and Sam Jones},\n\ttitle = {Sheepskin effects and heterogenous wage-setting behaviour: Evidence from {Mozambique}},\n\tabstract = {Using a unique panel survey of final-year undergraduates at six of the largest universities in Mozambique, we study the wage premium associated with completing an undergraduate degree. Conditional on a very rich set of controls, including pre-degree earnings, objective measures of ability, and academic performance, we find heterogeneity in `sheepskin effects' across different kinds of firms. We propose a simple model of wage-setting in which productivity is only partially observable in some firms and fully observable in others. In this setting, education serves both to enhance productivity and as a productivity signal. Consistent with the theory, positions where productivity is likely to be less observable offer larger sheepskin effects.},\n\tvolume = {2024},\n\tyear = {2024},\n\tnumber = {2024/5},\n\tmonth = {January},\n\ttype  = {Working paper},\n\tinstitution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n\tdoi = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2024/463-2},\n\tkeywords = {returns to education, wage-setting, productivity, Mozambique}\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Cultivating change: the long-term impact of forced labour in Mozambique.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Bove, M.; Caeiro, R. M.; Coelho, R.; Jones, S.; and Justino, P.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 2024/8, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), February 2024.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Caeiro2024cotton,\n\tauthor = {Margherita Bove and Rute Martins Caeiro and Rachel Coelho and Sam Jones and Patricia Justino},\n\ttitle = {Cultivating change: the long-term impact of forced labour in {M}ozambique},\n\tabstract = {Following the abolition of slavery, various forms of compulsory labour were adopted by colonial powers to develop their economies. This paper analyses the contemporary consequences of compulsory cotton production -- a forced labour system that operated in colonial Mozambique from 1926 to 1961. During this period, the Portuguese colonial government granted geographic concessions to private companies, within which smallholder farmers were forced to cultivate cotton for payment in cash. Women bore the brunt of this regime, but in doing so often took on responsibilities traditionally reserved for men and engaged in active resistance strategies. Employing a spatial regression discontinuity, we explore the enduring impact of this exposure to forced cotton cultivation on present-day human and social capital, focusing specifically on rural southern Mozambique. Our estimation strategy relies on the arbitrarily defined historical borders of the concessions, which reflected the tendency of concessionaires to absorb as much territory as possible, often ignoring agronomic conditions. Drawing on bespoke individual-level survey data collected along the concession border, we find lower educational outcomes among women in former concession areas. However, this is counterbalanced by positive effects on social capital, in the form of higher levels of civil participation, more progressive attitudes towards gender norms, and an increased presence of women in leadership positions. These results suggest that exogenous ruptures that push women outside traditional boundaries can help to reinforce their role in society.},\n\tyear = {2024},\n\tnumber = {2024/8},\n\tmonth = {February},\n\ttype  = {Working paper},\n\tkeywords = {long-run development, violence, gender, social capital, regression discontinuity, Mozambique},\n\tinstitution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n\tdoi = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2024/466-3}\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n The legacy of coercive cotton cultivation in colonial Mozambique.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Barros, H.; Caeiro, R. M.; Jones, S.; and Justino, P.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 2024/12, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), March 2024.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Barros2024cotton,\n\tauthor = {Henrique Barros and Rute Martins Caeiro and Sam Jones and Patricia Justino},\n\ttitle = {The legacy of coercive cotton cultivation in colonial {M}ozambique},\n\tabstract = {We examine the long-term impact of forced labour on individual risk behaviour and economic decisions. For that, we focus on a policy of coercive cotton cultivation enforced in colonial Mozambique between 1926 and 1961. We combine archival sources about the boundaries of historical cotton concessions with survey data collected specifically for this study. By employing a regression discontinuity design to compare individuals living in areas inside and outside the historical cotton concessions, we document significant disparities in risk aversion and agricultural patterns between communities. Our findings reveal that individuals living in regions unsuitable for producing cotton but still subjected to the coercive cotton regime have higher risk aversion, are more likely to be farmers, and have more agricultural production destined to be commercialized. These results are mostly driven by women, who felt the brunt of the forced labour regime. As a novel contribution, this paper highlights the long-lasting consequences of colonial agricultural policies on risk and economic behaviour, offering insights into the challenges faced by post-colonial societies in overcoming historical legacies.},\n\tyear = {2024},\n\tnumber = {2024/12},\n\tmonth = {March},\n\ttype  = {Working paper},\n\tkeywords = {long-run effects, forced labour, colonialism, risk attitudes, Mozambique},\n\tinstitution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n\tdoi = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2024/470-0}\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Inequality and voting in fragile countries: evidence from Mozambique.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Bove, M.; Egger, E.; Jones, S.; Justino, P.; and Santos, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 2024/9, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), February 2024.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Bove2024inequality,\n\tauthor = {Margherita Bove and Eva-Maria Egger and Sam Jones and Patricia Justino and Ricardo Santos},\n\ttitle = {Inequality and voting in fragile countries: evidence from {M}ozambique},\n\tabstract = {The political consequences of economic inequality have been debated in academic and policy circles for centuries. The nature of this relationship seems highly dependent on specific contexts, with empirical studies showing mixed evidence on how economic inequality affects voting and other forms of political participation. This evidence is largely driven by advanced democracies. We have to date limited knowledge on how economic inequality affects how individuals and groups vote in developing and weaker states even though such evidence is central to understanding how democracy might be consolidated in such settings. This paper addresses this question in the case of Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world. Contrary to initial theoretical predictions, we find evidence for a positive association between voter turnout and inequality in rural areas, in particular across the poorest localities and in localities where both wealth and inequality increased. While tempting to see this result as a political response of the poorest to inequality, reflections on the Mozambique context point towards elite capture as the most likely explanation for this result. We find no effect of inequality on political competition. In line with prior theoretical expectations, we find a negative association between inequality and voting for the incumbent party, in localities where wealth and inequality simultaneously increased and in the centre region.},\n\tyear = {2024},\n\tnumber = {2024/9},\n\ttype = {Working paper},\n\tmonth = {February},\n\tinstitution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n\tdoi = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2024/467-0},\n\tkeywords = {economic inequality, voting, elections, developing countries, Mozambique}\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Educational expansion and shifting private returns to education: Evidence from Mozambique.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of International Development, 35(6): 1407-1428. 2023.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Africa's lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Egger, E.; Jones, S.; Justino, P.; Manhique, I.; and Santos, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of International Development, 35(7): 1648-1666. 2023.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Egger2023,\n  author  = {Eva-Maria Egger and Sam Jones and Patricia Justino and Ivan Manhique and Ricardo Santos},\n  title   = {Africa's lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust},\n  journal = {Journal of International Development},\n  year    = {2023},\n  volume  = {35},\n  number = {7},\n  pages = {1648-1666},\n  type    = {Article},\n  abstract = {The primary policy response to suppress the spread of COVID-19 in high-income countries has been to lock down large sections of the population. However, there is growing unease that blindly replicating these policies might inflict irreparable damage to poor households and foment social unrest in developing countries. We investigate this concern using Afrobarometer data from 2019 for 30 sub-Saharan African countries. We create a multidimensional index of lockdown readiness based on living conditions and explore its relationship with forms of trust and the potential for social unrest. The index reveals that just 6.8 per cent of households overall and 12.2 per cent in urban areas meet all conditions for a lockdown. We further show that weak readiness is not offset by high levels of social trust, which can be vital for effective public health interventions. As such, strict lockdown policies may not only be difficult to enforce, but also heighten the risks of conflict.},\n  doi = {doi.org/10.1002/jid.3745}\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Decomposing Learning Inequalities in East Africa: How Much Does Sorting Matter?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Anand, P.; Behrman, J. R; Dang, H. H; and Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n The World Bank Economic Review, 36(1): 219-243. 2022.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Decomposing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Anand2022,\n  author   = {Anand, Paul and Behrman, Jere R and Dang, Hai-Anh H and Jones, Sam},\n  title    = {Decomposing Learning Inequalities in East Africa: How Much Does Sorting Matter?},\n  journal  = {The World Bank Economic Review},\n  year     = {2022},\n  volume    = {36},\n  number    = {1},\n  pages     = {219-243},\n  abstract = {Inequalities in learning opportunities arise from both household- and school-related factors. Although these factors are unlikely to be independent, few studies have considered the extent to which sorting between schools and households might aggravate educational inequalities. To fill this gap, this article presents a novel variance decomposition, which is then applied to data from over one million children from East Africa. Results indicate that sorting accounts for around 8 percent of the test-score variance, similar in magnitude to the contribution of differences in school quality. Empirical simulations of steady-state educational inequalities reveal that policies to mitigate sorting could substantially reduce educational inequalities over the long run.},\n  doi      = {10.1093/wber/lhab014},\n  keywords = {Africa, education, inequality of opportunity, sorting, variance decomposition},\n  type     = {Article},\n  url      = {https://academic.oup.com/wber/advance-article/doi/10.1093/wber/lhab014/6347254},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n The macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Bertho, R.; Chelengo, M.; Jones, S.; Keller, M.; Mussagy, I. H.; van Seventer, D.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of International Development, 34(4). 2022.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"The$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Bertho2022,\n  author      = {Rosario Bertho and Marcia Chelengo and Sam Jones and Michael Keller and Ibraimo Hassane Mussagy and Dirk van Seventer and Finn Tarp},\n  title       = {The macroeconomic impact of {COVID-19 in Mozambique:} {A} social accounting matrix approach},\n  journal = {Journal of International Development},\n  year        = {2022},\n  type        = {Article},\n  volume      = {34},\n  number      = {4},\n  abstract    = {This study assesses the economic costs of COVID-19 and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique. We use a social accounting matrix multiplier analysis to estimate the effects of the pandemic on the economy. Our simulations suggest that the Mozambican economy lost 3.6 percentage points of GDP growth in 2020 and that employment was 1.9 percentage points down. These losses were primarily driven by export shocks, the most heavily affected sectors being trade and accommodation and mining. Mozambique faces a critical challenge of how to promote economic diversification and reduce vulnerability to foreign shocks.},\n  doi         = {doi.org/10.1002/jid.3601},\n  keywords    = {COVID-19, multisector multiplier analysis, social accounting matrix, Mozambique},\n  url         = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jid.3601},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Extending multidimensional poverty identification: from additive weights to minimal bundles.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n The Journal of Economic Inequality, 20: 421-438. 2022.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Extending$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2022mpd,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {Extending multidimensional poverty identification: from additive weights to minimal bundles},\n  journal   = {The Journal of Economic Inequality},\n  year      = {2022},\n  volume    = {20},\n  pages     = {421-438},\n  abstract  = {In the popular class of multidimensional poverty measures introduced by Alkire and Foster (2011), a threshold switching function is used to identify who is multidimensionally poor. This paper shows that the weights and cut-off employed in this procedure are generally not unique and that such functions implicitly assume all groups of deprivation indicators of some fixed size are perfect substitutes. To address these limitations, I show how the identification procedure can be extended to incorporate any type of positive switching function, represented by the set of minimal deprivation bundles that define a unit as poor. Furthermore, the Banzhaf power index, uniquely defined from the same set of minimal bundles, constitutes a natural and robust metric of the relative importance of each indicator, from which the adjusted headcount can be estimated. I demonstrate the merit of this approach using data from Mozambique, including a decomposition of the adjusted headcount using a ‘one from each dimension’ non-threshold function.},\n  doi       = {10.1007/s10888-021-09503-9},\n  keywords  = {multidimensional poverty, switching functions, Mozambique},\n  publisher = {Springer},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10888-021-09477-8},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Can information correct optimistic wage expectations? Evidence from Mozambican job-seekers.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Santos, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Development Economics, 159(102987). 2022.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2022exp,\n  author  = {Jones, Sam and Santos, Ricardo},\n  title   = {Can information correct optimistic wage expectations? Evidence from {M}ozambican job-seekers},\n  journal = {Journal of Development Economics},\n  year    = {2022},\n  volume  = {159},\n  number  = {102987},\n  type    = {Article},\t\n  doi     = {10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102987},\n  abstract = {Forward-looking expectations are central to job search but often inaccurate. To test whether public information can help correct beliefs, we embed an experiment in a longitudinal survey of Mozambican graduates. We quantify responses of own-earning expectations to information about peers’ current earnings, sent by SMS. Optimistic beliefs were revised downward by a larger margin in the treatment group. But, consistent with a theoretical on-the-job search model, responses to news do not conform to a linear updating framework, with strong evidence for limited responses to negative news. This explains the moderate impact of our intervention and why optimistic expectations remained persistent.}\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n What drove the profitability of colonial firms? Labour coercion and trade preferences on the Sena Sugar Estates (1920–74).\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Gibbon, P.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 70/2022, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2022.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"What$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2022sena,\n  author      = {Sam Jones and Peter Gibbon},\n  title       = {What drove the profitability of colonial firms? {L}abour coercion and trade preferences on the {Sena Sugar Estates} (1920–74)},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2022},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {70/2022},\n  abstract    = {The magnitude of returns to colonial-era investments in Africa has been addressed in an extensive literature, as have the nature and legacies of extractive colonial institutions. However, the link between these institutions and the profitability of firms remains unclear. We reconstruct the annual financial records of Sena Sugar Estates in Portuguese East Africa (today’s Mozambique) over the period 1920–74 to probe the contributions of forced labour and preferential trade arrangements to the performance of the firm. We show that Sena Sugar Estates achieved stable and solid returns to capital, comparable in size to a range of domestic UK firms. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the firm's profitability was highly dependent on sustained access to cheap labour, but generally was not so dependent on trade preferences. At the same time, a production function analysis suggests that higher reliance on rents from forced labour was associated with lower total factor productivity at the Estates. This helps explain why extractive institutions did not translate into 'super-profits'.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/201-0},\n  keywords    = {Mozambique, sugar, forced labour, trade preferences, colonial era},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/what-drove-profitability-colonial-firms},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Labour market effects of digital matching platforms: Experimental evidence from sub-Saharan Africa.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Sen, K.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 69/2022, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2022.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Labour$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n \n \n 1 download\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2022sena,\n  author      = {Sam Jones and Kunal Sen},\n  title       = {Labour market effects of digital matching platforms: {E}xperimental evidence from sub-Saharan {A}frica},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2022},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {69/2022},\n  abstract    = {Can digital labour market platforms reduce search frictions in either formal or informal labour markets? We study this question using a randomized experiment embedded in a tracer study of the work transitions of graduates from technical and vocational colleges in Mozambique. We implement an encouragement design, inviting graduates by SMS to join one of two local digital platforms: Biscate, a site to find freelancers for informal manual tasks; and Emprego, a conventional formal jobs website. In contrast to positive estimates of the contribution of both platforms to job outcomes from naïve (per-treatment) estimates, both intent-to-treat and complier average treatment effects are consistently zero in the full sample, while the impact on life satisfaction is negative. However, use of the informal jobs platform leads to better work outcomes for women, especially those with manual qualifications, for whom earnings rise by over 50 per cent.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/200-3},\n  keywords    = {digital labour platforms, search frictions, technical and vocational education, unemployment, Mozambique},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/labour-market-effects-digital-matching-platforms},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Digital labour platforms as shock absorbers: Evidence from COVID-19.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Manhique, I.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 108/2022, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2022.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Digital$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2022biscate,\n  author      = {Sam Jones and Ivan Manhique},\n  title       = {Digital labour platforms as shock absorbers: {Evidence from COVID-19}},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2022},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {108/2022},\n  abstract    = {Digital labour platforms have grown five-fold over the last decade, enabling significant expansion in gig work worldwide. We interrogate the criticism that these platforms tend to amplify aggregate economic shocks for registered users (workers). Based on the universe of records from a matching platform for informal sector manual freelancers in Mozambique, we analyse how task supply and demand altered with the onset of COVID-19. Treating the pandemic as a structural break, which extends to an event study analysis, we find it was associated with a net increase in tasks demanded per worker, but no clear change in supply growth (new registrations). These trends are evident across multiple market segments, including female-dominated professions, suggesting digital labour markets can help workers adjust to economic shocks in low-income contexts.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/242-3},\n  keywords    = {COVID-19, digital labour markets, economic shocks, freelancers, Mozambique},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/digital-labour-platforms-shock-absorbers},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n The impact of COVID-19 on urban informal workers in Maputo.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Anaç, N.; Egger, E.; Jones, S.; Santos, R.; and Warren-Rodriguez, A.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 173, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), December 2022.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Warren-Rodriguez2022,\n\tauthor = {Nilifer Anaç and Eva-Maria Egger and Sam Jones and Ricardo Santos and Alex Warren-Rodriguez},\n\ttitle = {The impact of {COVID-19} on urban informal workers in {M}aputo},\n\tabstract = {Informal self-employed traders in developing countries are vulnerable to shocks as they often lack access to social insurance or formal finance. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these urban traders in the capital of Mozambique, Maputo. Drawing on longitudinal phone survey data over six months, we find they experienced significant negative shocks to earnings, leading to a reduction in savings as well as worsening food security and assets. Individuals simultaneously affected by a municipal policy to remove informal traders from a central market were hit particularly hard as they lost their clients and market stalls. We simulate that a cash transfer equivalent to the government's proposed COVID-19 response would have significantly buffered these shocks. The findings point to the need for a more shock-responsive social protection system, easy access to liquidity and provision of market infrastructure for informal traders.},\n\tyear = {2022},\n\tvolume = {2022},\n\tnumber = {173},\n\tmonth = {December},\n\tinstitution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n\ttype = {Working paper},\n\tkeywords = {COVID-19, informal, urban traders, Mozambique},\n\tdoi = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/306-2},\n\tlanguage = {English},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Non-Monetary Poverty and Deprivation: A Capability Approach.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Anand, P.; Jones, S.; Donoghue, M.; and Teitler, J.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of European Social Policy, 31(1): 78–91. 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Non-Monetary$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Anand2021,\n  author   = {Anand, Paul and Jones, Sam and Donoghue, Matthew and Teitler, Julien},\n  title    = {Non-Monetary Poverty and Deprivation: A Capability Approach},\n  journal  = {Journal of European Social Policy},\n  year     = {2021},\n  volume   = {31},\n  number   = {1},\n  pages    = {78--91},\n  abstract = {Given the continuing interest in multi-dimensional approaches to poverty, the article considers ways in which Senian capability indicators can be used to assess and understand poverty and deprivation. More specifically, we develop novel capability data on 29 dimensions for adults from the US, UK and Italy to explore three core research questions. First, we show that when poverty is seen as capability deprivation, different individuals are identified as poor compared with approaches based on low income or subjective wellbeing. However, we also observe that what the poor report being able to do or otherwise is, nonetheless, it is relatively robust to the use of these three different approaches. Second, we employ latent class analysis to identify poverty and deprivation profiles for groups within society and suggest that such profiles help to identify groups who are deprived or socially excluded with respect to some but not all areas of life. Third, and finally, we examine the association between individual capability deprivation and local area deprivation in the UK. We find that individual capabilities are associated with local area deprivation in some cases but that the connections vary significantly depending on the dimension under consideration. We discuss the results and conclude by suggesting that capability indicators can provide insights into poverty which do not emerge from a more traditional approach focusing on income alone.},\n  doi      = {https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0958928720938334},\n  keywords = {Poverty},\n  type     = {Article},\n  url      = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0958928720938334},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Infrastructure Improvements and Maize Market Integration: Bridging the Zambezi in Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Salazar, C.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 103(2): 620-642. 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Infrastructure$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n \n \n 1 download\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2021zambezi,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam and Salazar, C{\\'e}sar},\n  title     = {Infrastructure Improvements and Maize Market Integration: Bridging the {Zambezi} in {Mozambique}},\n  journal   = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics},\n  year      = {2021},\n  volume    = {103},\n  number    = {2},\n  pages     = {620-642},\n  abstract  = {Historically, transport infrastructure connecting the most agriculturally productive areas of Mozambique and the richer southern region has been poor. A primary bottleneck was an unreliable ferry service over the Zambezi river, addressed by construction of a road bridge in 2009. In this paper we identify the impact of this transport infrastructure enhancement on integration of national maize markets. Applying a dyadic regression approach, we find a significant narrowing of equilibrium price differences among market pairs that experienced a large relative reduction in journey times due to the new bridge. We also estimate that the elasticity of the absolute price differential with respect to intermarket driving times is around 30%. As such, the new bridge infrastructure enhanced market integration by shrinking the “internal border” at the river, but such benefits were spatially limited.},\n  doi       = {10.1111/ajae.12103},\n  keywords  = {Agriculture, Mozambique},\n  publisher = {Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Boston, USA},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajae.12103},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Beyond access to basic services: perspectives on social health determinants of Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Llop-Girones, A.; and Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Critical Public Health, 31(5): 533-547. 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Beyond$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Llop-Girones2021,\n  author    = {Llop-Girones, Alba and Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {Beyond access to basic services: perspectives on social health determinants of {Mozambique}},\n  journal   = {Critical Public Health},\n  year      = {2021},\n  volume    = {31},\n  number    = {5},\n  pages     = {533-547},\n  abstract  = {A wide range of evidence shows systematic differences in health status among social groups, which are associated with unequal exposure to and distribution of the social determinants of health (SDH). However, the role of these SDH has not been studied extensively in low-income countries, where most studies focus on access to medical care. In this paper, we undertake a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of the SDH in Mozambique for the period 2002-2014 based on a set of household budget surveys, covering 152,259 observations. We run logistic regression models, comparing various sets of determinants of health status proxied by two measures: self-assessed overall health and number of days ill. The results, which include models stratified by sex, age and year, consistently show that neither better access to healthcare nor material conditions are related to better health. Rather, macro factors, proxied by place of residence, are the dominant predictor of health inequalities. In the stratified models, women and elders appear more vulnerable to poor health. The policy implication is that a narrow focus of health policy on selected services ignores the underlying economic and social context and their role in producing well-being or poor health. More integrated approaches are required to address the health equity gap in low-income countries.},\n  doi       = {10.1080/09581596.2020.1769838},\n  keywords  = {Health, Mozambique},\n  publisher = {Taylor \\& Francis},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09581596.2020.1769838},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Boys lagging behind: Unpacking gender differences in academic achievement across East Africa.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Buhl-Wiggers, J.; Jones, S.; and Thornton, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n International Journal of Educational Development, 83(102382). 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Buhl-Wiggers2021,\n  author  = {Buhl-Wiggers, Julie and Jones, Sam and Thornton, Rebecca},\n  title   = {Boys lagging behind: {Unpacking} gender differences in academic achievement across {East Africa}},\n  journal = {International Journal of Educational Development},\n  year    = {2021},\n  volume  = {83},\n  number  = {102382},\n  type    = {Article},\t\n  doi     = {10.1016/j.ijedudev.2021.102382},\n  abstract = {We estimate the current magnitude of gender gaps in literacy and numeracy in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, using large-scale nationally representative data of children ages 6–16. Using a household fixed effects approach, we document that girls outperform boys in all three countries; in numeracy by 0.03 SDs (Uganda) to 0.05 SDs (Kenya and Tanzania) and literacy by 0.06 SDs (Uganda and Tanzania) to 0.09 SDs (Kenya). However, the gender gap in achievement is highly geographically clustered, reversing in sign in some districts. In highlighting the heterogeneity of gender disparities in academic performance in these three countries in East Africa, this study show that systematic female disadvantage in schooling is no longer the norm.}\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Informal freelancers in the time of COVID-19: Insights from a digital matching platform in Mozambique.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Manhique, I.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 35/2021, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2021biscate,\n  author      = {Sam Jones and Ivan Manhique},\n  title       = {Informal freelancers in the time of {COVID-19}: Insights from a digital matching platform in {Mozambique}},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2021},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {35/2021},\n  abstract    = { Despite the severe negative economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, evidence from many contexts points to a surge in sales on online platforms, as well as shifts in the composition of demand. This paper investigates how the pandemic has affected both the supply of and demand for informal manual freelancers in Mozambique. Using data from the digital labour marketplace Biscate, we quantify dynamics along four main dimensions: responses to infection rates, official restrictions on activity, changes in workplace mobility, and employment conditions. Overall, we find both positive and negative effects of the pandemic on growth in the supply of workers, which add up to a zero net effect on average. However, on the demand side, the contact rate and task agreement rate increased by around 50 per cent versus the ‘no shock’ counterfactual. These findings underline how the informal sector plays a valuable shock-absorbing role and that digital labour marketplaces can facilitate adjustments to economic shocks.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2021/035-1},\n  keywords    = {freelancers, COVID-19, economics shocks, Mozambique, informal sector},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n How far does the apple really fall from the tree? Practical guidance on measuring intergenerational mobility from a simulation framework.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Cardona, M.; and Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 41/2021, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"How$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Cardona2021,\n  author      = {Marcelo Cardona and Sam Jones},\n  title       = {How far does the apple really fall from the tree? {Practical} guidance on measuring intergenerational mobility from a simulation framework},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2021},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {41/2021},\n  abstract    = {Despite the importance attributed to intergenerational educational mobility in the process of development, there remains little consensus on how mobility should be measured. We present analytical and empirical evidence regarding the sensitivity of alternative estimators to different forms of measurement error and data transformations. To do so, we develop a flexible simulation model, allowing us to quantify the bias associated with different empirical choices. Our evidence suggests that use of an upwards mobility estimator, complemented by an out-performance metric, based on a reference distribution transformation is comparatively most robust. Applying these recommendations to the case of Mozambique, using complete census records from 1997, 2007, and 2017, we find a high degree of provincial heterogeneity, with a marked north-south gradient in mobility. Moreover, we identify a clear slowdown in educational mobility between 2007 and 2017, especially in the northern region, suggesting the education system is not delivering consistent gains to children across the country.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2021/041-2},\n  keywords    = {mobility, measurement errors, data truncation, sample truncation, co-residency, simulations},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/how-far-does-apple-really-fall-tree},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n The determinants of occupational sorting: Evidence from Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Ferreira, I. A.; Jones, S.; Mouco, J.; and Santos, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 83/2021, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"The$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Ferreira2021,\n  author      = {Ines A. Ferreira and Sam Jones and Jorge Mouco and Ricardo Santos},\n  title       = {The determinants of occupational sorting: Evidence from {Mozambique}},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2021},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {83/2021},\n  abstract    = {We examine the link between individual characteristics and sorting into different occupations using data from university students in Mozambique. We provide a comprehensive approach combining the main determinants of occupational sorting identified in the literature in a single framework to test both the importance and mutual independence of different groups of factors: fixed personal characteristics, job characteristics, economic preferences, and personality traits. We find a particularly surprising profile for those preferring the public sector, namely that they have a high propensity to cheat and a high score for neuroticism. Moreover, we do not find a significant effect of risk preferences or pro-sociality on the preference for this sector.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2021/021-4},\n  keywords    = {Occupational choice; Mozambique; Personality traits},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/determinants-occupational-sorting},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Informed participation: the effects of information treatment on panel non-response.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Santos, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 140/2021, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Informed$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2021attrition,\n  author      = {Sam Jones and Ricardo Santos},\n  title       = {Informed participation: the effects of information treatment on panel non-response},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2021},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {140/2021},\n  abstract    = {This paper builds on a longitudinal school-to-work transition phone survey experiment to quantify the effects on attrition of communicating with participants. Specifically, we study the impact of sending topically relevant information on job market conditions via SMS at the start of each survey round. Testing various information treatments, which differ in their granularity, including survival analysis, we find they all significantly reduce the instantaneous risk of non-response, with an estimate of instantaneous hazard reduction of around 30 per cent. These results affirm the best-practice recommendation to establish communication with participants between survey rounds to continue survey participation.\n},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2021/080-1},\n  keywords    = {survey participation, attrition, information, survival analysis},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/informed-participation-effects-information-treatment-panel-non-response},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Doing business while holding public office: Evidence from Mozambique's firm registry.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; Schilling, F.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 21-08, Development Economics Research Group, University of Copenhagen, 2021.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Doing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2021peps,\n  author      = {Jones, {Sam} and Felix Schilling and Finn Tarp},\n  title       = {Doing business while holding public office: {Evidence} from {Mozambique}'s firm registry},\n  institution = {Development Economics Research Group, University of Copenhagen},\n  year        = {2021},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {21-08},\n  abstract    = {We link the universe of owners of businesses formally registered in Mozambique since Independence to a new database of politically exposed persons. Recreating the dynamic network of ties between firm owners, we estimate the value of party political and executive mandates to their personal business interests. We find holders of political office attain significantly faster growth not only in the number of companies they own but also in their structural power within the business-owner network, as measured by their {\\textquoteleft}godfather centrality{\\textquoteright}. Such growth is concentrated in joint-stock firms active in trade and finance sectors and is even larger once we aggregate the analysis to the family-name level. This is consistent with politicians accumulating private sector wealth by acting as rentier-brokers.},\n  edition     = {2021},\n  keywords    = {firm registry, beneficial ownership, political connections, rent-seeking, Mozambique},\n  language    = {English},\n  publisher   = {University of Copenhagen},\n  url         = {https://www.econ.ku.dk/derg/wps/08-2021.pdf},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Testing the Technology of Human Capital Production: A General-to-Restricted Framework.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(6): 1429-1455. 2020.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Testing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2020obes,\n  author   = {Jones, Sam},\n  title    = {Testing the Technology of Human Capital Production: A General-to-Restricted Framework},\n  journal  = {Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics},\n  year     = {2020},\n  volume   = {82},\n  number   = {6},\n  pages    = {1429-1455},\n  abstract = {Studies of childhood development have suggested human capital is accumulated in complex and nonlinear ways. Nonetheless, empirical analyses of this process often impose a linear functional form. This paper investigates which technology assumptions matter in quantitative models of human capital production. I propose a general‐to‐restricted procedure to test the production technology, placing constraints on a modified McCarthy function, from which transcendental, constant elasticity of substitution, log‐linear and linear models are obtained as special cases. Applying the procedure to data on child height from the Young Lives surveys, as well as cognitive skills, I find that the technology of human capital production is neither log‐linear nor linear‐in‐parameters; rather, past and present inputs act as complements. I recommend that maintained hypotheses underlying functional form choices should be tested on a routine basis.},\n  doi      = {10.1111/obes.12374},\n  keywords = {Education, Health},\n  type     = {Article},\n  url      = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/obes.12374},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Misinformed, mismatched, or misled? Explaining the gap between expected and realized graduate earnings in Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; Santos, R.; and Xirinda, G.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 47/2020, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2020.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Misinformed,$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2020mismatch,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam and Santos, Ricardo and Xirinda, Gimelgo},\n  title       = {Misinformed, mismatched, or misled? {Explaining} the gap between expected and realized graduate earnings in {Mozambique}},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2020},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {47/2020},\n  abstract    = {Inaccurate expectations of future wages are found in many contexts. Yet, existing studies overwhelmingly refer to high-income countries, and there is little evidence regarding the sources of expectational errors. Based on a longitudinal survey of graduates from the six largest universities in Mozambique, we find the gap between expected and realized first earnings are extremely large. Applying a novel decomposition procedure, we find these errors are not driven by incorrect information about labour market returns. Job mismatches of various kinds account for over one-third of the total expectational error, while the remaining error reflects bias from misleading reference points (superstar salaries). While this suggests a need for greater transparency regarding levels of remuneration, we find no evidence that optimistic expectations are associated with poorer labour market outcomes.},\n  keywords    = {Education, Labour markets},\n  url         = {https://igmozambique.wider.unu.edu/working-paper/misinformed-mismatched-or-misled},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Africa's lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Egger, E.; Jones, S.; Justino, P.; Manhique, I.; and Santos, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 76/2020, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2020.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Africa's$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Egger2020lockdown,\n  author      = {Egger, Eva-Maria and Jones, Sam and Justino, Patricia and Manhique, Ivan and Santos, Ricardo},\n  title       = {{Africa's} lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2020},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {76/2020},\n  abstract    = {The primary policy response to suppress the spread of COVID-19 in high-income countries has been to lock down large sections of the population. However, there is growing unease that blindly replicating these policies might inflict irreparable damage to poor households and foment social unrest in developing countries. We investigate this concern using Afrobarometer data from 2019 for 30 sub-Saharan African countries. We create a multidimensional index of lockdown readiness based on living conditions and explore its relationship with forms of trust and the potential for social unrest. The index reveals that just 6.8 per cent of households overall and 12.2 per cent in urban areas meet all conditions for a lockdown. We further show that weak readiness is not offset by high levels of social trust, which can be vital for effective public health interventions. As such, strict lockdown policies may not only be difficult to enforce, but also heighten the risks of conflict.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2020/833-7},\n  keywords    = {Poverty, Institutions, Health},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/africa%E2%80%99s-lockdown-dilemma},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Character or context: What explains behavioural dishonesty in low-income countries?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Ferreira, I.; Jones, S.; and Mouco, J.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 98/2020, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), August 2020.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Character$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Ferreira2020cheating,\n  author      = {Ferreira, {Ines Afonso Roque} and Jones, {Sam} and Jorge Mouco},\n  title       = {Character or context: {What} explains behavioural dishonesty in low-income countries?},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2020},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {98/2020},\n  month       = aug,\n  abstract    = {We run a lab-in-the-field experiment with 1,060 university students in Mozambique to examine the correlates of behavioural dishonesty, distinguishing between intrinsic and extrinsic factors.Using an incentivized dice game, which yields direct estimates of the propensity to cheat, we find that the effects of demographic and personality traits (e.g., gender, work ethic) generally run in the opposite direction to previous studies.Contingent situational factors, including temperature, humidity, and the number of participants in the room, are associated with large differences in dishonesty—for example, on warm and humid days the predicted cheating rate increased by 14 percentage points.However, in line with theories of trait activation, these extrinsic effects are highly heterogeneous and interact with intrinsic factors, which we believe constitutes an important area for further research.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2020/855-9},\n  keywords    = {cheating, dice game, dishonest behaviour, Mozambique, personality traits, temperature},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/character-or-context},\n  volume      = {2020/98},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Updating great expectations: the effect of peer salary information on own-earnings forecasts.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Santos, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 138/2020, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2020.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Updating$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2020updating,\n  author      = {Sam Jones and Ricardo Santos},\n  title       = {Updating great expectations: the effect of peer salary information on own-earnings forecasts},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2020},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {138/2020},\n  abstract    = {How jobseekers set their earnings expectations is central to job search models. To study this process, we track the evolution of own-earnings forecasts over 18 months for a representative panel of university-leavers in Mozambique and estimate the impact of a wage information intervention. We sent participants differentiated messages about the average earnings of their peers, obtained from prior survey rounds. Demonstrating the stickiness of (initially optimistic) beliefs, we find an elasticity of own-wage expectations to this news of around 7 per cent in the short term and 16 per cent over the long term, which compares to a 22 per cent elasticity in response to unanticipated actual wage offers. We further find evidence of heterogeneous updating heuristics, where factors such as the initial level of optimism, cognitive skills, perceived reliability of the information, and valence of the news shape how wage expectations are updated. We recommend institutionalizing public information about earnings.\n},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2020/895-5},\n  keywords    = {earnings expectations, information intervention, updating heuristics, Mozambique},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/updating-great-expectations},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Can commercial farming promote rural dynamism in sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Glover, S.; and Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n World Development, 114: 110–121. 2019.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Can$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Glover2019,\n  author    = {Glover, Steven and Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {Can commercial farming promote rural dynamism in{ sub-Saharan Africa}? Evidence from {Mozambique}},\n  journal   = {World Development},\n  year      = {2019},\n  volume    = {114},\n  pages     = {110--121},\n  abstract  = {The impact of commercial farms on smallholders in developing countries remains highly controversial. This study draws on four periods of investments in commercial farming in Mozambique to frame an empirical analysis of their contemporary economic spillovers. We investigate the degree of selection of commercial farms into more favourable locations as well as the extent of heterogeneity in the effects of different commercial farming models on proximate smallholders. The analysis uses survey data covering all large commercial farms in Mozambique and which are linked to a nationally-representative survey of 6000 smallholders. Contrary to widespread assumptions that investors target only marginal farm land, we find that commercial farms are highly selective in their locations, preferring areas close to existing infrastructure and markets. Controlling for selection bias via reweighting and fixed effects, we find the presence of a commercial farm is associated with moderately higher incomes among neighbouring smallholders but a lower incidence of wage employment. Furthermore, these effects vary according to the type of commercial farming in place. More inclusive commercial models, such as those associated with outgrower schemes, appear to generate larger benefits. We conclude that broad generalizations about commercial farming investments must be replaced by more nuanced discussions of alternative investment models.},\n  doi       = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.09.029},\n  keywords  = {Agriculture, Mozambique},\n  publisher = {Pergamon},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X18303619},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n What does it mean to be poor? Investigating the qualitative-quantitative divide in Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Tvedten, I.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n World Development, 117: 153–166. 2019.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"What$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2019qq,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam and Tvedten, Inge},\n  title     = {What does it mean to be poor? Investigating the qualitative-quantitative divide in {Mozambique}},\n  journal   = {World Development},\n  year      = {2019},\n  volume    = {117},\n  pages     = {153--166},\n  abstract  = {Motivated by the siloed nature of much poverty research, as well as the challenge of finding inclusive operational definitions of poverty, this study reflects on the merits of seeking to reconcile economic (quantitative) and anthropological (qualitative) analytical approaches. Drawing on detailed evidence from Mozambique, we highlight fundamental philosophical tensions in poverty research along three main axes: social ontology (what is the form of social reality?); (b) epistemology (what can be known about poverty?); and (c) aetiology (how is poverty produced?). We argue the quantitative tradition is rooted in an atomistic view of the social world, which is allied to an etic epistemology in which causes and effects are treated as analytically separable. Anthropological work in Mozambique is anchored in an emic perspective, where the diverse forms of poverty are revealed through investigation of their generative mechanisms. This provides a view of poverty as a relational process of social marginalization and directs attention to the diversity of lived-experiences, as well as structural factors that limit individuals’ agency. In clarifying their distinct philosophical commitments, we contend that a forced empirical marriage of the two approaches may be unhelpful. Instead, we recommend the virtues of each approach are leveraged toward genuine mutual dialogue.},\n  doi       = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.01.005},\n  keywords  = {Poverty, Mozambique},\n  publisher = {Pergamon},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19300117},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Counting-based multidimensional poverty identification.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 55/2019, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2019.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Counting-based$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2019counting,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {Counting-based multidimensional poverty identification},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2019},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {55/2019},\n  abstract    = {In the widely used class of multidimensional poverty measures introduced by Alkire and Foster (2011), dimension-specific weights combined with a single cut-off parameter play a fundamental role in identifying who is multidimensionally poor. This paper revisits how these parameters are understood, revealing they do not uniquely characterise who is identified as poor and that the weights do not reliably reflect each dimensions’ relative importance. Drawing on insights from Boolean algebra, I demonstrate that the set of 'minimum deprivation bundles' constitutes an intuitive and unique characterization of Alkire-Foster identification functions. This provides a formal foundation for various analytical innovations, namely: a novel poverty decomposition based only on the unique properties of each identification function; and metrics of dimensional power, which capture the effective importance or ‘value’ of each dimension across all possible combinations of deprivations. These insights are illustrated using deprivation data from Mozambique and applying various identification functions, including a close replica of the international MPI (multidimensional poverty index).\n},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2019/689-0},\n  keywords    = {Poverty, Mozambique},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/counting-based-multidimensional-poverty-identification},\n}\n\n%@TechReport{Anand2019sorting,\n%  author      = {Paul Anand and Jere R. Behrman and Hai-Anh H. Dang and Sam Jones},\n%  title       = {Does sorting matter for learning inequality? Evidence from {East Africa}},\n%  institution = {World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)},\n%  year        = {2019},\n%  type        = {Working paper},\n%  number      = {2019/110},\n%  abstract    = {Inequalities in children’s learning are widely recognized to arise from variations in both household- and school-related factors. While % few studies have considered the role of sorting between schools and households, even fewer have quantified how much sorting contributes to educational % inequalities in low- and middle-income countries. We fill this gap using data on over one million children from three countries in Eastern Africa. % Applying a novel variance decomposition procedure, our results indicate that sorting of pupils across schools accounts for at least 8 per cent of the % total test-score variance and that this contribution tends to be largest for children from families at either end of the socio-economic spectrum. % Empirical simulations of steady-state educational inequalities reveal that policies to mitigate the consequences of sorting could substantially reduce % inequalities in education.},\n%  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2019/746-0},\n%  keywords    = {Education, Inequality},\n%  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/does-sorting-matter-learning-inequality},\n%}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Early life malaria exposure and academic performance.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Klejnstrup, N. R.; Buhl-Wiggers, J.; Jones, S.; and Rand, J.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n PLoS ONE, 13(6): e0199542. 2018.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Early$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Klejnstrup2018,\n  author    = {Klejnstrup, Ninja Ritter and Buhl-Wiggers, Julie and Jones, Sam and Rand, John},\n  title     = {Early life malaria exposure and academic performance},\n  journal   = {{PLoS ONE}},\n  year      = {2018},\n  volume    = {13},\n  number    = {6},\n  pages     = {e0199542},\n  abstract  = {Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a dynamic contributor to poverty through its effects on children’s cognitive development. This paper examines the degree to which malaria in early childhood impacts on educational achievement in later childhood. The substantial decline in malaria in the region over recent years allows an assessment of its impact to be made. Focusing on Tanzania, we combine data from the Malaria Atlas Project and the 2010–2014 Uwezo household surveys (N = 246,325). We relate the district-level risk of malaria in a child’s year of birth to his/her performance in tests of acquired cognitive skills (literacy and numeracy). For causal identification, we rely on differences across districts in the pace of decline in malaria prevalence occurring over the last 15 years. We control for time-invariant district level, age, birth cohort and survey year effects, as well as district-level trends and individual and household-specific factors. In addition, we use sibling variation in birth-year exposure to malaria to strengthen our identification. A ten percentage-point decrease in malaria prevalence in birth year is associated with a 0.06 standard deviation (p = 0.000) increase in English literacy achievement. This estimate is comparable in magnitude to education intervention programs with very large effects. Our results are robust to a large number of sensitivity analyses. We find no statistically significant effects of birth-year malaria exposure on attainments in numeracy and Kiswahili, and we argue that this is probably attributable to strong ceiling effects in these test scores. We conclude that in Tanzania malaria is an important factor in geographical variation in English literacy. This indicates that malaria is a significant public health challenge to educational achievement in this country, and probably in other regions with malaria.},\n  doi       = {10.1371/journal.pone.0199542},\n  keywords  = {Education, Health},\n  publisher = {Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199542},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Varied patterns of catch-up in child growth: Evidence from Young Lives.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Anand, P.; Behrman, J. R; Dang, H. H; and Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Social Science & Medicine, 214: 206–213. 2018.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Varied$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Anand2018catch,\n  author    = {Anand, Paul and Behrman, Jere R and Dang, Hai-Anh H and Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {Varied patterns of catch-up in child growth: Evidence from {Young Lives}},\n  journal   = {Social Science \\& Medicine},\n  year      = {2018},\n  volume    = {214},\n  pages     = {206--213},\n  abstract  = {The development of human capabilities for many disadvantaged children around the world depends on growth recovery (‘catch-up growth’). Here we develop a novel framework that allows different types of catch-up growth to be classified and estimated. We distinguish between catch-up in the mean of a group toward that of a healthy reference population versus catch-up within the group. We show these different growth types can be tested in a unified setting using a latent growth framework. We apply the results to four developing countries, using longitudinal data on 7641 children collected over the period 2002–2013. The results show catch-up growth rates are generally modest but vary significantly between countries, and that local environmental factors are material to variation in child growth trajectories. The paper discusses the benefits of the new framework versus current methods, shows that the method is feasible, and suggests they call for intervention designs that are sensitive to community and country contexts.},\n  doi       = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.07.003},\n  keywords  = {Health},\n  publisher = {Pergamon},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277953618303599},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n The evolution of private returns to education during post-conflict transformation: Evidence from Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; Sohnesen, T. P.; and Trifkovic, N.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 143/2018, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research), 2018.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"The$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2018edu,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam and Sohnesen, Thomas Pave and Trifkovic, Neda},\n  title       = {The evolution of private returns to education during post-conflict transformation: Evidence from {Mozambique}},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economic Research)},\n  year        = {2018},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {143/2018},\n  abstract    = {This paper estimates how private returns to education have evolved in the context of postconflict transformation in Mozambique. This has been characterized by rapid economic growth, significant expansion of the schooling system, but also limited structural change in a labour market dominated by small-scale agricultural activity. We find clear evidence that rates of return to education in the country have shifted over time—declining at lower levels of schooling, but remaining stable and possibly rising at the highest levels. This is consistent with increasingly convex returns, which are most evident among those in non-agricultural (wage) jobs. As such, workers today must accumulate more years of schooling to achieve the same expected return as in the past.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2018/585-5},\n  keywords    = {Education, Mozambique},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/evolution-private-returns-education-during-post-conflict-transformation-0},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n A review of consumption poverty estimation for Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Arndt, C.; Jones, S.; Mahrt, K.; Salvucci, V.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Arndt, C.; and Tarp, F., editor(s), Measuring Poverty and Wellbeing in Developing Countries, of WIDER Studies in Development Economics, 8, pages 108. Oxford University Press, 2017.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"A$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Arndt2017pov,\n  author    = {Arndt, Channing and Jones, Sam and Mahrt, Kristi and Salvucci, Vincenzo and Tarp, Finn},\n  title     = {A review of consumption poverty estimation for {Mozambique}},\n  booktitle = {Measuring Poverty and Wellbeing in Developing Countries},\n  publisher = {Oxford University Press},\n  year      = {2017},\n  editor    = {Channing Arndt and Finn Tarp},\n  series    = {WIDER Studies in Development Economics},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  chapter   = {8},\n  pages     = {108},\n  abstract  = {Since the end of the civil war in 1992, Mozambique has registered significant progress across a range of monetary and non-monetary poverty indicators at both national and regional levels. This conclusion of material progress draws from a large array of nationally representative datasets that became available starting from 1996. This chapter is concerned with the estimation of consumption poverty rates. It begins by reviewing the challenges encountered and choices made in the national assessments. Efforts to maintain consistency imply that prior choices tend to be adopted in subsequent analyses. At the same time, the practice of consumption poverty analysis is not static. Because ‘best practice’ evolves (and hopefully improves) with time, there arises a natural tension between the desire to follow best practice and the desire to maintain consistency with previous analyses.},\n  doi       = {10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198744801.003.0008},\n  journal   = {Measuring Poverty and Wellbeing in Developing Countries},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Poverty},\n  url       = {https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198744801.001.0001/acprof-9780198744801-chapter-8},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Robustness tests for multidimensional poverty comparisons.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 206/2017, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research), 2017.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Robustness$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2017robust,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {Robustness tests for multidimensional poverty comparisons},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research)},\n  year        = {2017},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {206/2017},\n  abstract    = {This paper provides practical tests for the robustness of multidimensional comparisons of well-being. Focussing on counting-type multidimensional poverty measures, I draw on the properties of positive Boolean threshold functions to prove that the space of feasible poverty definitions is finite and can be partitioned into at most (D2+D)/2 parts, where D is the number of dimensions of well-being spanned by the measure. This provides the foundation for two complementary tests: (i) a bounding approach, which weights each dimension equally; and (ii) stochastic search, where coverage of the space of poverty definitions is assessed via Good-Turing estimates of missing mass. The two methods are applied to a measure encompassing nine dimensions of well-being in Mozambique, revealing persistent regional asymmetries.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2017/432-2},\n  keywords    = {Poverty, Mozambique},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/robustness-tests-multidimensional-poverty-comparisons},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n What is the aggregate economic rate of return to foreign aid?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Arndt, C.; Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n The World Bank Economic Review, 30(3): 446–474. 2016.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"What$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Arndt2016wber,\n  author    = {Arndt, Channing and Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title     = {What is the aggregate economic rate of return to foreign aid?},\n  journal   = {The World Bank Economic Review},\n  year      = {2016},\n  volume    = {30},\n  number    = {3},\n  pages     = {446--474},\n  abstract  = {In recent years, academic studies have been converging towards the view that foreign aid promotes aggregate economic growth. We employ a simulation approach to: (i) validate the coherence of empirical aid-growth studies published since 2008; and (ii) calculate plausible ranges for the rate of return to aid. Our results highlight the long run nature of aid-financed investments and the importance of channels other than accumulation of physical capital. We find the return to aid lies in ranges commonly accepted for public investments and there is little to justify the view that aid has had a significant pernicious effect on productivity.},\n  doi       = {10.1093/wber/lhv033},\n  keywords  = {Foreign aid, Growth},\n  publisher = {Oxford University Press},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/30/3/446/2449739},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Measuring what's missing: practical estimates of coverage for stochastic simulations.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 86(9): 1660–1672. 2016.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Measuring$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2016missing,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {Measuring what's missing: practical estimates of coverage for stochastic simulations},\n  journal   = {Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation},\n  year      = {2016},\n  volume    = {86},\n  number    = {9},\n  pages     = {1660--1672},\n  abstract  = {Stochastic sensitivity analyses rarely measure the extent to which realized simulations cover the search space. Rather, simulation lengths are typically chosen according to expert judgement. In response, this paper recommends a novel application of Good-Turing estimators of missing distributional mass. Using the United Nations Development Programme's Human Development Index, the empirical performance of such coverage metrics are compared to alternative measures of convergence. The former are advantageous – they provide probabilistic estimates of simulation coverage and permit calculation of strict bounds on estimates of pairwise dominance (for all possible weight vectors, how often country X dominates country Y).},\n  doi       = {10.1080/00949655.2015.1077839},\n  keywords  = {Poverty, Simulations},\n  publisher = {Taylor \\& Francis},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00949655.2015.1077839?journalCode=gscs20},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Does foreign aid harm political institutions?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Development Economics, 118: 266–281. 2016.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Does$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2016jde,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title     = {Does foreign aid harm political institutions?},\n  journal   = {Journal of Development Economics},\n  year      = {2016},\n  volume    = {118},\n  pages     = {266--281},\n  abstract  = {The notion that foreign aid harms the institutions of recipient governments remains prevalent. We combine new disaggregated aid data and various metrics of political institutions to re-examine this relationship. Long run cross-section and alternative dynamic panel estimators show a small positive net effect of total aid on political institutions. Distinguishing between types of aid according to their frequency domain and stated objectives, we find that this aggregate net effect is driven primarily by the positive contribution of more stable inflows of ‘governance aid’. We conclude that the data do not support the view that aid has had a systematic negative effect on political institutions.},\n  doi       = {10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.09.004},\n  keywords  = {Foreign aid, Institutions},\n  publisher = {North-Holland},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438781500111X},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n How does classroom composition affect learning outcomes in Ugandan primary schools?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n International Journal of Educational Development, 48: 66–78. 2016.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"How$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2016classroom,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {How does classroom composition affect learning outcomes in {Ugandan} primary schools?},\n  journal   = {International Journal of Educational Development},\n  year      = {2016},\n  volume    = {48},\n  pages     = {66--78},\n  abstract  = {There is widespread agreement that schooling quality should be a priority in the post-2015 education agenda, but less agreement on how quality can be enhanced in a cost effective manner. In Uganda, classroom overcrowding is often considered a critical cause of poor learning outcomes. This paper investigates how various aspects of classroom composition, including class size and the achievement distribution of classmates, affect individual learning. Using test score data for over 250,000 children, such compositional factors are found to be relevant. However, their influence on learning is not so large as to justify major standalone policy interventions. Rather, pedagogical changes that support children with literacy difficulties merit particular consideration.},\n  doi       = {10.1016/j.ijedudev.2015.11.010},\n  keywords  = {Education},\n  publisher = {Pergamon},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0738059315300122},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Mozambique: Off-track or Temporarily Sidelined?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Arndt, C.; Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Arndt, C.; McKay, A.; and Tarp, F., editor(s), Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa, pages 190. Oxford University Press, 2016.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Mozambique:$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Arndt2016off,\n  author    = {Arndt, Channing and Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title     = {{Mozambique}: Off-track or Temporarily Sidelined?},\n  booktitle = {Growth and Poverty in {Sub-Saharan Africa}},\n  publisher = {Oxford University Press},\n  year      = {2016},\n  editor    = {Arndt, C. and McKay, A. and Tarp, F.},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  pages     = {190},\n  abstract  = {This chapter assesses whether Mozambique’s poverty reduction is on- or off-track, or temporarily sidelined. A series of shocks, especially the fuel and food price crisis of 2008, combined with poor productivity growth in agriculture and a weather shock, undermined progress in measured consumption poverty. These shocks exposed persistent weaknesses in development strategies. Perspectives from 2009 to the present are less clear due to a lack of comprehensive data on how the fruits of continued rapid economic growth are being distributed. Nevertheless, recent economic and social trends, which draw from the available information base, provide some forward-looking perspectives. Mozambique has the potential to achieve rapid and broad-based economic and social progress with key reforms, as well as peace and stability.},\n  doi       = {10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198744795.001.0001},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Growth},\n  url       = {https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198744795.001.0001/acprof-9780198744795-chapter-9},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n Measuring Learning Outcomes: Lessons from the Uwezo Experience.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Munene, I. I., editor(s), Dilemmas in System-Wide Reforms and Learning Outcomes in Africa, 3, pages 61. Lexington Books, 2016.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Jones2016lessons,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {Measuring Learning Outcomes: Lessons from the {Uwezo} Experience},\n  booktitle = {Dilemmas in System-Wide Reforms and Learning Outcomes in {Africa}},\n  publisher = {Lexington Books},\n  year      = {2016},\n  editor    = {Ishmael I. Munene},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  chapter   = {3},\n  pages     = {61},\n  abstract  = {The objective of this chapter is to reflect on the experiences of Uwezo, concentrating primarily on the challenges of rigorously measuring and comparing trends in learning outcomes. By way of structure, the next section provides an overview of the Uwezo approach to learning assessments. The third section discusses some of the primary practical challenges that Uwezo has faced in terms of data collection. The fourth and fifth sections discuss some of the more important technical challenges associated with: (i) deriving measures of achievement from the raw test score data; and (ii) comparing results across space and time. The final substantive section takes some of these concerns to the data and illustrates their relevance. },\n  journal   = {Achieving Education for All: Dilemmas in System-Wide Reforms and Learning Outcomes in Africa},\n  keywords  = {Education},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Mozambique's Growth Experience through an Employment Lens.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Bhorat, H.; and Tarp, F., editor(s), Africa's Lions: Growth Traps and Opportunities for Six African Economies, 5. Brookings Institution Press, 2016.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Mozambique's$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Jones2016lions,\n  author    = {Sam Jones and Finn Tarp},\n  title     = {{Mozambique's} Growth Experience through an Employment Lens},\n  booktitle = {Africa's Lions: Growth Traps and Opportunities for Six African Economies},\n  publisher = {Brookings Institution Press},\n  year      = {2016},\n  editor    = {Haroon Bhorat and Finn Tarp},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  chapter   = {5},\n  abstract  = {The chapter contains three main sections. First, we elaborate on recent economic trends in Mozambique, provide a brief historical background, and compare trends across a range of macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators. The second main section contains the analytical core of the chapter. It begins by describing the data and empirical methods used to decompose changes in Mozambique’s labor market. Due to the limitations of regular official data\non employment, aggregate GDP data must be combined with irregular information on employment patterns taken from house hold surveys. With respect to the latter, we take advantage of preliminary data from a recent house hold survey. Thus, the derived data encompasses the period 1996-2014, which provides an extensive view of recent labor market changes to the present.},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Labour markets, Growth},\n  url       = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctt1hfr23q.8},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Jobs and Welfare in an Agrarian Economy.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Betcherman, G.; and Rama, M., editor(s), Jobs For Development: Challenges and Solutions in Different Country Settings, 2. Oxford University Press, 2016.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Jobs$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Jones2016jobs,\n  author    = {Sam Jones and Finn Tarp},\n  title     = {Jobs and Welfare in an Agrarian Economy},\n  booktitle = {Jobs For Development: Challenges and Solutions in Different Country Settings},\n  publisher = {Oxford University Press},\n  year      = {2016},\n  editor    = {Gordon Betcherman and Martin Rama},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  chapter   = {2},\n  abstract  = {Mozambique has achieved remarkable macroeconomic success over recent decades, boasting one of the world’s highest rates of GDP growth. Even so, absolute poverty remains persistent, at times spilling over into social unrest. This chapter focuses on labor market trends in order to better understand the link between aggregate growth and household welfare. We ask: (a) what has happened to jobs in Mozambique over the past fifteen years; (b) what has been the link between jobs and development outcomes; and (c) where should policy-makers focus to create more good jobs? To inform the analysis, we collate data from a series of household surveys and estimate an econometric model of the determinants of household jobs portfolios. We conclude that jobs policy must seek to raise agricultural productivity and stimulate labor-intensive exports.},\n  doi       = {10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198754848.003.0002},\n  keywords  = {Labour markets, Mozambique},\n  url       = {https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198754848.001.0001/acprof-9780198754848-chapter-2},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Where is commercial farming expanding in Mozambique? Evidence from agricultural surveys.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Glover, S. M; Salvucci, V.; and Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 159/2016, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research), 2016.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Where$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Glover2016commercial,\n  author      = {Glover, Steven M and Salvucci, Vincenzo and Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {Where is commercial farming expanding in {Mozambique}? Evidence from agricultural surveys},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research)},\n  year        = {2016},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {159/2016},\n  abstract    = {This paper studies the dynamics of the agricultural sector in Mozambique, focusing on the role of commercial farms. Using agricultural survey data from 2002 to 2012, we analyse the spatial distribution of large farms and identify factors influencing their location decisions. We find that the spatial dispersion of large farms across the country is not uniform. Large farms tend to be located in wealthier and more educated areas, with better road access and higher levels of population density. Given an increasing volume of investments in the agricultural sector in Mozambique, a better understanding of these spatial trends can shed light on the processes through which large commercial farming entities may influence smallholder agricultural production and rural welfare.},\n  doi         = {10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2016/203-8},\n  keywords    = {Agriculture, Mozambique},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/where-commercial-farming-expanding-mozambique},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Assessing foreign aid’s long-run contribution to growth and development.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Arndt, C.; Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n World Development, 69: 6–18. 2015.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Assessing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{arndt2015assessing,\n  author    = {Arndt, Channing and Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title     = {Assessing foreign aid’s long-run contribution to growth and development},\n  journal   = {World Development},\n  year      = {2015},\n  volume    = {69},\n  pages     = {6--18},\n  abstract  = {This paper confirms recent evidence of a positive impact of aid on growth and widens the scope of evaluation to a range of outcomes including proximate sources of growth (e.g., physical and human capital), indicators of social welfare (e.g., poverty and infant mortality), and measures of economic transformation (e.g., share of agriculture and industry in value added). Focusing on long-run cumulative effects of aid in developing countries, and taking due account of potential endogeneity, a coherent and favorable pattern of results emerges. Aid has over the past 40 years stimulated growth, promoted structural change, improved social indicators, and reduced poverty.},\n  doi       = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.016},\n  keywords  = {Foreign aid},\n  publisher = {Pergamon},\n  url       = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X13003008},\n  type     = {Article},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Aid supplies over time: Addressing heterogeneity, trends, and dynamics.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n World Development, 69: 31–43. 2015.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Aid$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{jones2015aid,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {Aid supplies over time: Addressing heterogeneity, trends, and dynamics},\n  journal   = {World Development},\n  year      = {2015},\n  volume    = {69},\n  pages     = {31--43},\n  abstract  = {What determines how much foreign aid donors provide? Existing answers to this question point to a complex range of influences. However, the tasks of distinguishing between long- and short-run factors, as well as differences between donors, have not been adequately addressed. Taking advantage of data spanning nearly 50 years, this paper uses panel cointegration techniques to consider these issues. The analysis provides clear evidence for heterogeneity both between donors and over time, bandwagon effects, and a growing influence of security considerations in aid provision. Domestic macroeconomic shocks have a moderate but delayed effect on aid disbursements.},\n  doi       = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.014},\n  keywords  = {Foreign aid},\n  publisher = {Pergamon},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X13002982},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n When do relative prices matter for measuring income inequality? The case of food prices in Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Arndt, C.; Jones, S.; and Salvucci, V.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n The Journal of Economic Inequality, 13(3): 449–464. 2015.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"When$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n \n \n 1 download\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{arndt2015relative,\n  author    = {Arndt, Channing and Jones, Sam and Salvucci, Vincenzo},\n  title     = {When do relative prices matter for measuring income inequality? The case of food prices in {Mozambique}},\n  journal   = {The Journal of Economic Inequality},\n  year      = {2015},\n  volume    = {13},\n  number    = {3},\n  pages     = {449--464},\n  abstract  = {Changes in relative prices of commodities consumed in different shares across income groups can be expected to alter real income differentials between these groups. Using Mozambican household budget survey and price data from 2002/03 and 2008/09, we show that once relative price increases are accounted for, inequality of real consumption increases substantially. We obtain this result by constructing a price deflator that reflects divergent price dynamics of different product categories. Since the main factors driving this result prevail in other developing countries, it is likely that inequality may be underestimated elsewhere.},\n  doi       = {10.1007/s10888-015-9303-5},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Poverty, Inequality},\n  publisher = {Springer US},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10888-015-9303-5},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Salazar-Espinoza, C.; Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Food Policy, 53: 9–21. 2015.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Weather$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{salazar2015weather,\n  author    = {Salazar-Espinoza, C{\\'e}sar and Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title     = {Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural {Mozambique}},\n  journal   = {Food Policy},\n  year      = {2015},\n  volume    = {53},\n  pages     = {9--21},\n  abstract  = {Economic development in low income settings is often associated with an expansion of higher-value agricultural activities. Since these activities often bring new risks, an understanding of cropland decisions and how these interact with shocks is valuable. This paper uses data from Mozambique to examine the effect of weather shocks on cropland decisions. We account for the bounded nature of land shares and estimate a Pooled Fractional Probit model for panel data. Our results show that crop choice is sensitive to past weather shocks. Farmers shift land use away from cash and permanent crops one year after a drought and from horticulture and permanent crop after a flood. However, this reallocation seems temporary as farmers devote less land to staples after two periods. This is consistent with the aim of maintaining a buffer stock of staples for home consumption.},\n  doi       = {10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.03.003},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Agriculture},\n  publisher = {Pergamon},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919215000238},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Does family background matter for learning in East Africa?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Schipper, Y.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Africa Education Review, 12(1): 7–27. 2015.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Does$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{jones2015does,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam and Schipper, Youdi},\n  title     = {Does family background matter for learning in {East Africa}?},\n  journal   = {Africa Education Review},\n  year      = {2015},\n  volume    = {12},\n  number    = {1},\n  pages     = {7--27},\n  abstract  = {The extent to which differences in family background characteristics explain differences in learning outcomes between children captures the extent of equality in educational opportunities. This study uses large-scale data on literacy and numeracy outcomes for children of school age across East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) to investigate the contribution of family background to learning differences. We find that learning differences between children from less-advantaged households and those from more-advantaged households equals around one year or more of effective learning on average. Even so, family background does not fully explain why children of school starting age display large differences in learning between countries.},\n  doi       = {10.1080/18146627.2015.1036540},\n  keywords  = {Education, Inequality},\n  publisher = {Routledge},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/18146627.2015.1036540},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Priorities for boosting employment in Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence for Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n African Development Review, 27(S1): 56–70. 2015.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Priorities$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2015priorities,\n  author   = {Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title    = {Priorities for boosting employment in Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence for {Mozambique}},\n  journal  = {African Development Review},\n  year     = {2015},\n  volume   = {27},\n  number   = {S1},\n  pages    = {56--70},\n  abstract = {Should policy‐makers, including foreign donors, focus employment strategies in sub‐Saharan Africa on strengthening access to formal wage employment or on raising productivity in the informal sector? We examine the evidence in Mozambique and show that crude distinctions between formality and informality are not illuminating. The observed welfare advantage of formal sector workers essentially derives from differences in endowments and local conditions. Non‐agricultural informal work can yield higher returns than formal work. The implication is that the informal sector must not be marginalized; and raising productivity in agriculture must be accorded a central place in boosting employment.},\n  doi      = {10.1111/1467-8268.12139},\n  keywords = {Mozambique, Labour markets},\n  type     = {Article},\n  url      = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8268.12139},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Aid, growth and employment in Africa.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; Page, J.; Shimeles, A.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n African Development Review, 27(S1): 1–4. 2015.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Aid,$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{Jones2015,\n  author   = {Jones, Sam and Page, John and Shimeles, Abebe and Tarp, Finn},\n  title    = {Aid, growth and employment in {Africa}},\n  journal  = {African Development Review},\n  year     = {2015},\n  volume   = {27},\n  number   = {S1},\n  pages    = {1--4},\n  doi      = {10.1111/1467-8268.12134},\n  keywords = {Foreign aid, Labour markets},\n  type     = {Article},\n  url      = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8268.12134},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Mozambique: Off-track or temporarily sidelined?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Arndt, C.; Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 44/2015, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research), 2015.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Mozambique:$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Arndt2015offtrack,\n  author      = {Arndt, Channing and Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title       = {{Mozambique}: Off-track or temporarily sidelined?},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research)},\n  year        = {2015},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {44/2015},\n  abstract    = {Since 1994, a great deal has been accomplished. We argue that poverty reduction was temporarily sidelined in the 2000s. A series of shocks, especially the fuel and food price crisis of 2008, combined with poor productivity growth in agriculture and a weather shock, undermined progress in measured consumption poverty. We expect progress in poverty reduction to resume. These shocks also exposed persistent weaknesses in development strategies and programmes. Nevertheless, Mozambique has the potential to achieve rapid and broad-based economic and social progress. With key reforms and success in maintaining peace and stability, it will.},\n  keywords    = {Mozambique, Growth},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/mozambique},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Can your child read and count? Measuring learning outcomes in East Africa.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; Schipper, Y.; Ruto, S.; and Rajani, R.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of African Economies, 23(5): 643–672. 2014.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Can$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{jones2014can,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam and Schipper, Youdi and Ruto, Sara and Rajani, Rakesh},\n  title     = {Can your child read and count? Measuring learning outcomes in {East Africa}},\n  journal   = {Journal of African Economies},\n  year      = {2014},\n  volume    = {23},\n  number    = {5},\n  pages     = {643--672},\n  abstract  = {The last 15 years have seen major changes to education systems in East Africa. Superficially, there is much to commend. Net primary enrolment rates have risen to over 90% alongside significant improvements in gender equity. Nonetheless, there are growing concerns that better access is not adding up to more learning. This paper introduces unique test score data collected by Twaweza's Uwezo initiative for over 600,000 children across East Africa, including children enrolled and not enrolled in school. Using these data we show that many children in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda remain functionally illiterate or innumerate, despite having completed multiple years of school.},\n  doi       = {10.1093/jae/eju009},\n  keywords  = {Education},\n  publisher = {Oxford University Press},\n  url       = {https://academic.oup.com/jae/article-abstract/23/5/643/786137},\n  type     = {Article},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n What matters for learning in East Africa?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research), 2013.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"What$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Jones2013edu,\n  author      = {Sam Jones},\n  title       = {What matters for learning in {East Africa}?},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research)},\n  year        = {2013},\n  type        = {Policy Brief},\n  abstract    = {In addition to large class sizes, peer effects, such as overage-for-grade and late-starting\npupils, are challenges for the successful development of education sectors in East Africa;\nthere is a comparative lack of research on the impact of peer effects. household surveys provide good data with which to assess the impact of class size and the effect of overage-for-grade pupils on the education sectors of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.},\n  keywords    = {Education},\n  url         = {http://www1.wider.unu.edu/article/what-matters-learning-east-africa},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Jobs and Welfare in Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Tarp, F.; and Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 45/2013, UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research), 2013.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Jobs$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{tarp2013jobs,\n  author      = {Tarp, Finn and Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {Jobs and Welfare in {Mozambique}},\n  institution = {UNU-WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research)},\n  year        = {2013},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {45/2013},\n  abstract    = {Mozambique has achieved remarkable macroeconomic success over recent decades, boasting one of the world’s highest rates of GDP growth. However, absolute poverty remains persistent, spilling over into social unrest. To better understand the link between aggregate growth and household welfare, this study focuses on labour market trends. We ask: (a) what has happened to jobs in Mozambique over the past 15 years; (b) what has been the link between jobs and development outcomes; and (c) where should policymakers focus to create more good jobs? We conclude that jobs policy must seek to raise agricultural productivity and stimulate labour-intensive exports.},\n  keywords    = {Mozambique, Labour markets},\n  url         = {https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/jobs-and-welfare-mozambique},\n  volume      = {4},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Innovating foreign aid – progress and problems.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of International Development, 24(1): 1–16. 2012.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Innovating$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{jones2012innovating,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {Innovating foreign aid -- progress and problems},\n  journal   = {Journal of International Development},\n  year      = {2012},\n  volume    = {24},\n  number    = {1},\n  pages     = {1--16},\n  abstract  = {This paper assesses two innovative development financing models—specialised global partnership funds (e.g. The Global Fund) and market‐based approaches (e.g. GlobalGiving). Via a simple typology of development financing approaches these models are shown to contain distinctive and new elements. They have definite strengths, particularly in raising funds as well as unbundling fundraising from design and implementation. However, these models are not panaceas and replicate many weaknesses of ‘traditional’ approaches to foreign aid. Donors should carefully consider the merits of supporting new financing structures relative to including innovative design features within existing aid programmes.},\n  doi       = {10.1002/jid.1758},\n  keywords  = {Foreign aid, Development finance},\n  publisher = {Wiley Online Library},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jid.1758},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n The finance-growth thesis: a sceptical assessment.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Andersen, T. B.; Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of African Economies, 21(suppl_1): i57–i88. 2012.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"The$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{andersen2012finance,\n  author    = {Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck and Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title     = {The finance-growth thesis: a sceptical assessment},\n  journal   = {Journal of African Economies},\n  year      = {2012},\n  volume    = {21},\n  number    = {suppl\\_1},\n  pages     = {i57--i88},\n  abstract  = {Financial liberalisation is widely seen as key to promoting financial development and unlocking growth in developing countries. While this thesis has been backed by an extensive literature, we show that it rests on weak theoretical and empirical foundations. Data for Sub-Saharan Africa reinforce this sceptical assessment. The region has embraced the financial reform paradigm, but few robust positive results have followed. On the contrary, exploratory data analysis suggests that, to the extent that financial reform has made any contribution to developmental outcomes, domestic financial development is unlikely to have been the mediating channel. We conclude that the finance–growth thesis stands challenged and outline five lessons which future research should heed.},\n  doi       = {10.1093/jae/ejr040},\n  keywords  = {Financial liberalisation, Growth},\n  publisher = {Oxford University Press},\n  url       = {https://academic.oup.com/jae/article/21/suppl_1/i57/686304},\n  type     = {Article},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Explaining the evolution of poverty: the case of Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Arndt, C.; Hussain, M A.; Jones, E S.; Nhate, V.; Tarp, F.; and Thurlow, J.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 94(4): 854–872. 2012.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Explaining$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{arndt2012explaining,\n  author    = {Arndt, Channing and Hussain, M Azhar and Jones, E Samuel and Nhate, Virgulino and Tarp, Finn and Thurlow, James},\n  title     = {Explaining the evolution of poverty: the case of {Mozambique}},\n  journal   = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics},\n  year      = {2012},\n  volume    = {94},\n  number    = {4},\n  pages     = {854--872},\n  abstract  = {We provide a comprehensive approach for analyzing the evolution of poverty using Mozambique as a case study. Bringing together data from disparate sources, we develop a novel “back-casting” framework that links a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to a micro-simulation poverty module. This framework provides a new approach to explaining and decomposing the evolution of poverty, as well as to examining rigorously the coherence between poverty, economic growth, and inequality outcomes. Finally, various simple but useful and rarely-applied approaches to considering regional changes in poverty rates are presented.},\n  doi       = {10.1093/ajae/aas022},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Poverty},\n  publisher = {Oxford University Press},\n  url       = {https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article/94/4/854/92927},\n  type     = {Article},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Essays on foreign aid and economic development: macro, meso and micro studies.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, 2012.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Essays$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@PhdThesis{Jones2012,\n author = {Sam Jones},\n title = {Essays on foreign aid and economic development: macro, meso and micro studies},\n school = {Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen},\n year = {2012},\n type = {PhD thesis},\n abstract = {The matter of whether foreign aid is effective in enhancing social welfare in developing countries remains\na quotidian controversy. The present thesis addresses this question empirically and from a variety of\nangles. Whilst our understanding of aid effectiveness is far less comprehensive and secure than we\nmight wish – in part due to the technical challenges of attributing observed impacts uniquely to aid – the\nanalysis assembled here points to consistent evidence of positive effects of aid at the macro-, meso- and\nmicro-economic levels. Simply put, there are no grounds to support cynical opinions of foreign aid which\ncall for it to be ceased. At the same time, much can be done to augment the effectiveness of foreign aid.\nThe constituent chapters of this thesis may be read independently. Nonetheless, a richer understanding\nof the complex and diverse topic of aid effectiveness is gained by taking them as a whole. Chapter 1\nprovides a more substantive introduction, including a brief overview of the nature of foreign aid, the\nparticular impact evaluation challenges she presents, and a detailed discussion of the findings of the\nthesis. Chapter 2 provides a complementary literature review, which considers existing evidence for aid\neffectiveness at various levels of aggregation. In turn this helps pinpoint a number of open and relevant\nresearch questions which motivate the remaining chapters. Chapters 3 and 4 address aid effectiveness from a comparatively aggregate standpoint. The former\ntakes up the issue of whether aid supports economic growth over the long-run. The latter extends the\nanalysis to a range of other outcomes, including social indicators, and provides a decomposition of the\nmain transmission channels through which aid affects economic growth. Chapters 5 and 6 consider two\nmicroeconomic interventions, co-financed by bilateral aid, designed to stimulate organic agriculture in\nsub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, the chapters consider the household welfare effects associated with\nsmallholder contract out-grower schemes for organic coffee and cocoa located in Uganda.\nChapter 7 considers aid from the supply-side. In part motivated by the recent financial crisis (2008/09),\nit seeks to identify the principal domestic determinants of how much aid is given by some of the major\nbilateral donors. Finally, Chapter 8 discusses the advantages and disadvantages of a number of innovative\naid instruments. This reflects the fact that aid is not a single coherent ‘thing’, but rather has many facets\nand is evolving. For this reason, it will remain an important research topic.},\n keywords = {Foreign aid, Contract farming, Agriculture, Growth},\n url = {https://www.econ.ku.dk/forskning-og-publikationer/Publikationer/ph.d_serie_2007-/Ph.D.153.pdf},\n}\n\n

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\n The matter of whether foreign aid is effective in enhancing social welfare in developing countries remains a quotidian controversy. The present thesis addresses this question empirically and from a variety of angles. Whilst our understanding of aid effectiveness is far less comprehensive and secure than we might wish – in part due to the technical challenges of attributing observed impacts uniquely to aid – the analysis assembled here points to consistent evidence of positive effects of aid at the macro-, meso- and micro-economic levels. Simply put, there are no grounds to support cynical opinions of foreign aid which call for it to be ceased. At the same time, much can be done to augment the effectiveness of foreign aid. The constituent chapters of this thesis may be read independently. Nonetheless, a richer understanding of the complex and diverse topic of aid effectiveness is gained by taking them as a whole. Chapter 1 provides a more substantive introduction, including a brief overview of the nature of foreign aid, the particular impact evaluation challenges she presents, and a detailed discussion of the findings of the thesis. Chapter 2 provides a complementary literature review, which considers existing evidence for aid effectiveness at various levels of aggregation. In turn this helps pinpoint a number of open and relevant research questions which motivate the remaining chapters. Chapters 3 and 4 address aid effectiveness from a comparatively aggregate standpoint. The former takes up the issue of whether aid supports economic growth over the long-run. The latter extends the analysis to a range of other outcomes, including social indicators, and provides a decomposition of the main transmission channels through which aid affects economic growth. Chapters 5 and 6 consider two microeconomic interventions, co-financed by bilateral aid, designed to stimulate organic agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, the chapters consider the household welfare effects associated with smallholder contract out-grower schemes for organic coffee and cocoa located in Uganda. Chapter 7 considers aid from the supply-side. In part motivated by the recent financial crisis (2008/09), it seeks to identify the principal domestic determinants of how much aid is given by some of the major bilateral donors. Finally, Chapter 8 discusses the advantages and disadvantages of a number of innovative aid instruments. This reflects the fact that aid is not a single coherent ‘thing’, but rather has many facets and is evolving. For this reason, it will remain an important research topic.\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Developing agricultural markets in sub-Saharan Africa: organic cocoa in rural Uganda.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Gibbon, P.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Development Studies, 47(10): 1595–1618. 2011.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Developing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{jones2011developing,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam and Gibbon, Peter},\n  title     = {Developing agricultural markets in sub-Saharan Africa: organic cocoa in rural {Uganda}},\n  journal   = {Journal of Development Studies},\n  year      = {2011},\n  volume    = {47},\n  number    = {10},\n  pages     = {1595--1618},\n  abstract  = {This article investigates the process of development in a traditional African export market, focusing on a contract farming scheme for organic cocoa in rural Uganda. Based on a repeated household survey, we measure the impact of the scheme on the income of participants and the economic mechanisms behind these effects. We find substantial benefits from the scheme, driven primarily by the establishment of credible incentives for farmers to adopt technologies which improve cocoa quality. There is also evidence of broader trends of market deepening and increased productivity, probably due to positive spillovers.},\n  keywords  = {Contract farming, Agriculture},\n  publisher = {Routledge},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00220388.2011.579107},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n What can Africa expect from financial development.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n Andersen, T. B; Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Tanzanian Economic Review, 1(1-2): 76–98. 2011.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{andersen2011can,\n  author  = {Andersen, Thomas B and Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title   = {What can Africa expect from financial development},\n  journal = {Tanzanian Economic Review},\n  year    = {2011},\n  volume  = {1},\n  number  = {1-2},\n  pages   = {76--98},\n  type    = {Article},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n The economic contribution of tourism in Mozambique: Insights from a Social Accounting Matrix.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Development Southern Africa, 27(5): 679–696. 2010.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"The$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{jones2010economic,\n  author    = {Jones, Sam},\n  title     = {The economic contribution of tourism in {Mozambique}: Insights from a {Social Accounting Matrix}},\n  journal   = {Development Southern Africa},\n  year      = {2010},\n  volume    = {27},\n  number    = {5},\n  pages     = {679--696},\n  abstract  = {How much tourism contributes to the economies of developing countries is controversial and often not measured rigorously. Focusing on Mozambique, this study presents a simple accounting tool – a tourist-focused Social Accounting Matrix – which makes it possible to estimate the economic contribution of various tourism sub-types. Multiplier analysis is applied to evaluate the strength of backward linkages from tourism to the domestic economy. The results show the sector is moderate in size but has the potential to contribute significantly to aggregate economic development. However, potential weaknesses are already evident and careful attention must be paid to the full tourism value chain.},\n  doi       = {10.1080/0376835X.2010.522831},\n  keywords  = {Tourism, Mozambique},\n  publisher = {Routledge},\n  type      = {Article},\n  url       = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0376835X.2010.522831},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n An Analysis of Organic Contract Farming Schemes in East Africa.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Gibbon P., A. A.; Bolwig S., J. S.; and Lin Y., R. L.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Gibbon P., P. S., editor(s), Global Agro-Food Trade and Standards, of International Political Economy Series. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"An$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Gibbon2010,\n  author    = {Gibbon P., Akyoo A., Bolwig S., Jones S., Lin Y., Rants L.L.},\n  title     = {An Analysis of Organic Contract Farming Schemes in {East Africa}},\n  booktitle = {Global Agro-Food Trade and Standards},\n  publisher = {London: Palgrave Macmillan},\n  year      = {2010},\n  editor    = {Gibbon P., Ponte S., Lazaro E.},\n  series    = {International Political Economy Series},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  abstract  = {As noted in a number of chapters in this volume, recent years have seen a substantial increase in African smallholder production to ‘sustainability’ standards. This reflects the dynamic growth of Northern markets for products certified to these standards and, in turn, the premium prices that this generates. All of the production concerned appears to be organized through a contemporary variant of contract farming. Like earlier African variants, this is donor-supported. But contracting for sustainability attributes is generally by private corporations rather than by government or public—private agencies and contracts are ‘market based’, in the sense that they tend to focus mainly on price and quality requirements rather than input supply, production calendars and so on.},\n  keywords  = {Contract farming, Agriculture},\n  url       = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230281356_4},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n The economics of smallholder organic contract farming in tropical Africa.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Bolwig, S.; Gibbon, P.; and Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n World Development, 37(6): 1094–1104. 2009.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"The$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@Article{bolwig2009,\n  author   = {Bolwig, Simon and Gibbon, Peter and Jones, Sam},\n  title    = {The economics of smallholder organic contract farming in tropical {Africa}},\n  journal  = {World Development},\n  year     = {2009},\n  volume   = {37},\n  number   = {6},\n  pages    = {1094--1104},\n  abstract = {The paper examines the revenue effects of certified organic contract farming for smallholders and of adoption of organic agricultural farming methods in a tropical African context. The comparison in both cases is with farming systems that are “organic by default.” Survey data from a large organic coffee contract farming scheme in Uganda are reported and analyzed using a standard OLS regression and a full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimate of the Heckman selection model. The analysis finds that, controlling for a range of factors, there are positive revenue effects both from participation in the scheme and, more modestly, from applying organic farming techniques.},\n  doi      = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.09.012},\n  keywords = {Contract farming, Agriculture},\n  type     = {Article},\n  url      = {http://www.fao.org/uploads/media/the%20economics%20of%20smallholder%20organic%20contract%20farming%20in%20tropical%20africa.pdf},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Comparative perspective.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Arndt, C.; and Tarp, F., editor(s), Taxation in a Low-Income Economy: The case of Mozambique, 5. London: Routledge, 2009.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Comparative$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Jones2009comparative,\n  author    = {Sam Jones},\n  title     = {Comparative perspective},\n  booktitle = {Taxation in a Low-Income Economy: The case of {Mozambique}},\n  publisher = {London: Routledge},\n  year      = {2009},\n  editor    = {Channing Arndt and Finn Tarp},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  chapter   = {5},\n  isbn      = {9780203881972},\n  abstract  = {The principal objective of this chapter is to evaluate the aggregate performance of Mozambique’s tax system against experiences of other developing countries. In the ﬁrst instance, the nature of constraints to tax revenue generation is investigated at the cross-country level. In turn, this framework is applied to the speciﬁc case of Mozambique. By way of structure, Section 2 provides a brief summary of critical perspectives on the Mozambican tax system. This leads, in Section 3, to an analysis of the cross-country evidence for the relationship between developmental conditions and overall tax performance via elaboration of an econometric model. Consistent with previous research (e.g. Teera and Hudson 2004), tax ratios in developing countries are found to be strongly related to ‘deep’ economic and institutional variables. In Section 4 the model is applied to Mozambique, permitting calculation of the expected tax eﬀort based on economic and institutional conditions. Section 5 concludes.},\n  doi       = {10.4324/9780203881972},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Taxation},\n  url       = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9780203881972},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Macroeconomic modelling: Process and practice.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.; and Paulo, E.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Arndt, C.; and Tarp, F., editor(s), Taxation in a Low-Income Economy: The case of Mozambique, 9. London: Routledge, 2009.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Macroeconomic$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Jones2009macro,\n  author    = {Sam Jones and Eugenio Paulo},\n  title     = {Macroeconomic modelling: Process and practice},\n  booktitle = {Taxation in a Low-Income Economy: The case of {Mozambique}},\n  publisher = {London: Routledge},\n  year      = {2009},\n  editor    = {Channing Arndt and Finn Tarp},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  chapter   = {9},\n  isbn      = {9780203881972},\n  abstract  = {The initial objective of this chapter is to propose a general set of principles for the evaluation of macro-ﬁscal modelling at the country level. These themes are developed in Section 2, including a brief review of the relevant literature. Based on the authors’ experiences in macro-ﬁscal modelling in Mozambique, Section 3 applies the framework to this speciﬁc case. We ﬁnd that modelling practices have improved over recent years. They are, however, at an early stage of development and a number of weaknesses are obvious. },\n  doi       = {10.4324/9780203881972},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Taxation},\n  url       = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9780203881972},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Forecast quality.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Arndt, C.; and Tarp, F., editor(s), Taxation in a Low-Income Economy: The case of Mozambique, 8. London: Routledge, 2009.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Forecast$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Jones2009fiscal,\n  author    = {Sam Jones},\n  title     = {Forecast quality},\n  booktitle = {Taxation in a Low-Income Economy: The case of {Mozambique}},\n  publisher = {London: Routledge},\n  year      = {2009},\n  editor    = {Channing Arndt and Finn Tarp},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  chapter   = {8},\n  isbn      = {9780203881972},\n  abstract  = {This chapter breaks with reviews the quality of macroeconomic and revenue forecasts in Mozambique for the period 1995-2005. As such it provides an example of how forecast evaluations can be undertaken and illuminates some of the key factors which aﬀect the forecasting environment in Mozambique. Based on a unique dataset of forecasts and outcomes for both revenue and macroeconomic variables, the following questions are explored: What are the characteristics of the forecast errors? How have the forecast errors changed over time? How does the forecast model compare to a naive alternative forecast rule? What do the forecast errors tells us about the nature of the tax system?},\n  doi       = {10.4324/9780203881972},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Taxation},\n  url       = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9780203881972},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Whither aid? Financing development in Mozambique.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 2009/08, Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS, 2009.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Whither$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{jones2009whither,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {Whither aid? {Financing} development in {Mozambique}},\n  institution = {Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS},\n  year        = {2009},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {2009/08},\n  abstract    = {Careful consideration of the appropriate level and composition of aggregate public spending is vital in low income countries, especially in the presence of large volumes of foreign aid. Not only can expansion of the public sector weaken economic growth, but also provision of public services may be difficult to re-trench. These issues are relevant to Mozambique as the share of government in GDP already is comparatively high and strategic management of aggregate public spending historically has been weak. A new long-term macroeconomic model quantifies the implications of alternative aggregate spending profiles. It shows that small increases in minimum levels of government spending correspond to large increases in the duration to aid independence. Sharp reductions in aid availability would necessitate significant fiscal and economic adjustments, including cuts in real public spending per capita. For this reason, there is no room for complacency as regards the future of development finance to Mozambique.},\n  keywords    = {Mozambique, Foreign aid, Financial programming},\n  url         = {https://diis.dk/node/16554},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Alternative development financing mechanisms: Pre-crisis trends and post-crisis outlook.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 2009/11, Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS, 2009.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Alternative$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{jones2009alternative,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {Alternative development financing mechanisms: Pre-crisis trends and post-crisis outlook},\n  institution = {Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS},\n  year        = {2009},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {2009/11},\n  abstract    = {This study assesses the recent evolution of non-traditional approaches to development finance. It includes 1) an examination of the characteristics of the alternative financing mechanisms that have emerged over recent years; 2) an analysis of their (combined) contribution to addressing development financing challenges in the poorest countries; and 3) considerations over the future prospects of alternative financing mechanisms.},\n  keywords    = {Development finance},\n  url         = {https://www.diis.dk/en/research/alternative-development-financing-mechanisms-poverty-reduction},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Sustaining Growth in the Long Term.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Peiris, S.; and Clément, J., editor(s), Post-Stabilization Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa : Lessons from Mozambique, 3. International Monetary Fund, 2008.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Sustaining$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{Peiris2008,\n  author    = {Sam Jones},\n  title     = {Sustaining Growth in the Long Term},\n  booktitle = {Post-Stabilization Economics in {Sub-Saharan Africa} : Lessons from {Mozambique}},\n  publisher = {International Monetary Fund},\n  year      = {2008},\n  editor    = {Shanaka Peiris and Jean Clément},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  chapter   = {3},\n  isbn      = {9781589066779},\n  abstract  = {Despite the central role accorded to output growth, there is no consensus as to how it can be increased or sustained over the long run. As a point of departure for this chapter, it is useful to highlight the conceptual distinction between proximate and “deep” determinants of growth. The latter refer to the microeconomic causative processes behind output growth, focusing on dynamics in specific markets over time as well as political economy influences on policy choices. The former take a broader perspective, looking at the patterns of change in macroeconomic aggregates, including overall efficiency. Although the two approaches are complementary, an aggregate focus is essential to developing a coherent overall framework for understanding past dynamics and, thus, identifying core processes of interest. This is the objective of this study. More specifically, the following questions are asked: What have been the aggregate determinants of Mozambican growth to date; What are the challenges to sustaining growth over the long run; and What might other low-income countries learn from the Mozambican experience? To enable this study to provide an evidence-based response, rigorous quantification of the past (proximate) sources of economic growth is undertaken using a growth accounting methodology. To further consider prospects for sustaining productivity growth over the long term a simple macroeconomic growth projections model is elaborated. The results from this exercise confirm the importance of maintaining an unbiased growth pattern in which sustained productivity improvements play a central role. They also show that institutional strengthening, strategic management of foreign aid, and continued expansion of access to education at all levels will be critical.},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Growth},\n  url       = {https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF071/08577-9781589066779/08577-9781589066779/ch03.xml},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n From bear to bull?: Sub-Saharan Africa and global capital markets.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS, January 2008.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"From$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{jones2008bear,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {From bear to bull?: {Sub-Saharan Africa} and global capital markets},\n  institution = {Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS},\n  year        = {2008},\n  type        = {Policy Brief},\n  month       = jan,\n  abstract    = {The current boom in global commodity prices and the expansion of Chinese interests in subSaharan Africa are part of a general warming of external investors to the region. This policy\nbrief examines trends in commercial financial instruments such as equities, bonds and\ncommercial bank lending and their impact on economic development. It reviews the nature\nand behaviour of these instruments in developing countries compared with more traditional\ndevelopment finance, such as foreign aid. This provides a foundation for analysing past and\npresent trends in sub-Saharan Africa. It is argued that, like many other low income countries\nin the past, sub-Saharan Africa has received negligible inflows of external commercial\nfinancing. If anything, the region has been additionally excluded from these flows due to very\nweak levels of financial sector development even compared to other low income countries. At\nthe same time, recent changes in global and domestic conditions mean that the situation is\nevolving rapidly. There is mounting evidence to show that many economies in sub-Saharan\nAfrica are enjoying significantly expanded access to commercial external capital flows. Given\ngood prospects that this trend will continue, the playing field for traditional donors is likely to\nalter significantly. The brief concludes by reflecting on how donors might respond to these\nemerging policy challenges.},\n  keywords    = {Capital flows, Foreign aid},\n  publisher   = {Danish Institute for International Studies},\n  url         = {https://pure.diis.dk/ws/files/66078/sjo_From_bear_to_bull.pdf},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n The Current Financial Crisis: Implications and Issues for less Developed Countries.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Andersen, T.; Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report University of Copenhagen, 2008.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"The$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Andersen2008,\n  author      = {Andersen, {Thomas Barnebeck} and Jones, {Sam} and Finn Tarp},\n  title       = {The Current Financial Crisis: Implications and Issues for less Developed Countries},\n  institution = {University of Copenhagen},\n  year        = {2008},\n  type        = {Policy Brief},\n  language    = {English},\n  publisher   = {Danida},\n  url         = {https://static-curis.ku.dk/portal/files/10510574/PDF},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n An Assessment of the Impact of Export Processing Zones and an Identification of Appropriate Measures to Support their Development: For Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, April 2008.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Gibbon, P.; Jones, S.; and Thomsen, L.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS, Denmark, 2008.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"An$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{Gibbon2008epz,\n  author      = {Peter Gibbon and Sam Jones and Lotte Thomsen},\n  title       = {An Assessment of the Impact of Export Processing Zones and an Identification of Appropriate Measures to Support their Development: For Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, April 2008},\n  institution = {Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS},\n  year        = {2008},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  address     = {Denmark},\n  abstract    = {This study examines the extent to which EPZs should be considered only a ‘second best’ policy, as well as what alternative policies may be followed in order to promote export growth in developing countries in general and those in Sub-Saharan Africa in particular. It does so on the basis of considering these questions against the background of a number of inter-related themes, and -- given the absence of any comprehensive data set -- mainly on the basis of a literature review.},\n  keywords    = {Export processing zones},\n  language    = {English},\n  publisher   = {Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS},\n  url         = {https://research.cbs.dk/files/58551079/assessment_of_the_impact_of_export_processing_zones.pdf},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Sub-Saharan Africa and the resource curse: Limitations of the conventional wisdom.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 2008/14, Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS, 2008.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Sub-Saharan$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{jones2008rescurse,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {Sub-Saharan Africa and the resource curse: Limitations of the conventional wisdom},\n  institution = {Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS},\n  year        = {2008},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {2008/14},\n  abstract    = {The existence of a natural resources curse is widely accepted in academic and policy circles. With\nits focus on institutional quality, the resource curse thesis is symptomatic of the current ‘good\ngovernance’ agenda. This paper subjects the thesis to critical evaluation and finds it wanting. It is\nargued that empirical evidence is ad hoc and theoretical explanations remain weakly developed.\nThe need for more nuanced approaches is confirmed by exploratory empirical techniques. The\nthesis does not provide a robust basis for practical interventions. Rather, acknowledgement of\nour ignorance is a first step towards widening policy space and promoting local solutions.},\n  keywords    = {Natural resources},\n  url         = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep13465},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Sub-Saharan Africa and Global Capital Markets.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 2007/28, Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS, 2007.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Sub-Saharan$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{jones2007capital,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {{Sub-Saharan Africa} and Global Capital Markets},\n  institution = {Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, DIIS},\n  year        = {2007},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {2007/28},\n  abstract    = {Recent years have seen a considerable shift in economic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa. Economic growth has been robust, international reserves are on the rise and levels of external debt are falling. Combined with the global boom in commodity prices, as well as expansion of Chinese interests in the region, international investors are increasingly viewing Africa as a serious investment option. As a result of these trends, the landscape in which foreign donors have operated is changing rapidly. This paper argues for constructive engagement with this agenda, taking account of the new opportunities and risks that access to global capital markets entails. However, where financial systems are weak, this is likely to require a cautious approach. Even so, over the medium-term, access to new sources of financing may provide a valid and sustainable exit strategy from dependence on foreign aid. As such dependence has characterized many countries in sub-Saharan Africa during the 1980s and 1990s, this emerging agenda demands to be taken seriously.},\n  keywords    = {Capital flows, Foreign aid},\n  url         = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep13302},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Aid and Development: The Mozambican Case.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Arndt, C.; Jones, S.; and Tarp, F.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Lahiri, S., editor(s), Theory and Practice of Foreign Aid, volume 1, of Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, 14, pages 235–288. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2006.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Aid$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@InCollection{arndt2006aid,\n  author    = {Arndt, Channing and Jones, Sam and Tarp, Finn},\n  title     = {Aid and Development: The {Mozambican} Case},\n  booktitle = {Theory and Practice of Foreign Aid},\n  publisher = {Emerald Group Publishing Limited},\n  year      = {2006},\n  editor    = {S. Lahiri},\n  volume    = {1},\n  series    = {Frontiers of Economics and Globalization},\n  type      = {Book chapter},\n  chapter   = {14},\n  pages     = {235--288},\n  abstract  = {We consider the relationship between external aid and development in Mozambique from 1980–2004, identifying the specific mechanisms through which aid has influenced the developmental trajectory of the country. We undertake both a growth accounting analysis and review the intended and unintended effects of aid at the micro-level. Sustained aid flows to Mozambique, in conflict and post-conflict periods, have made an unambiguous, positive contribution to rapid growth since 1992. However, proliferation of donors and aid-supported interventions has burdened local administration, indicating a need for deeper domestic government accountability. To sustain growth, Mozambique must maximize benefits from natural resources while promoting constructive international market integration.},\n  doi       = {10.1016/S1574-8715(06)01014-1},\n  keywords  = {Mozambique, Foreign aid},\n  url       = {https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1016/S1574-8715(06)01014-1/full/html},\n}\n\n

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\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n Growth accounting for Mozambique (1980-2004).\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n Jones, S.\n\n\n \n\n\n\n Technical Report 22E, Direcção Nacional de Estudos e Análise de Políticas, Ministério de Planificação e Desenvolvimento, Moçambique, 2006.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Growth$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

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@TechReport{jones2006growth,\n  author      = {Jones, Sam},\n  title       = {Growth accounting for {Mozambique} (1980-2004)},\n  institution = {Direcção Nacional de Estudos e Análise de Políticas, Ministério de Planificação e Desenvolvimento, Moçambique},\n  year        = {2006},\n  type        = {Working paper},\n  number      = {22E},\n  abstract    = {This paper reviews the trajectory of economic growth in Mozambique since 1980,\nparticularly since the end of civil war in 1992. Focussing only on the ‘proximate’\nrather than the ´deep’ determinants of growth, we undertake a growth accounting\nexercise in the tradition of Solow (1957). Employing a trans-logarithmic\nmethodology, a useful contribution of this paper is the careful construction of\nconsistent time series data covering private and public capital stocks as well as human\ncapital stocks sub-divided into education-based categories. The results indicate that\nrapid growth since the end of the civil war in 1992 has been mainly achieved through\ncapital accumulation and concrete improvements in the level of education of the\nworking population, a governmental priority since Independence. Looking at the\nperiod as a whole (1980-2004), although total factor productivity (TFP) growth has\nbeen robust since 1992 it is as yet unclear whether this represents a firm base to\nsupport high rates of economic growth into the future.},\n  journal     = {National Directorate of Studies and Policy Analysis Discussion Paper},\n  keywords    = {Mozambique, Growth},\n  url         = {https://www.iese.ac.mz/~ieseacmz/lib/saber/fd_33.pdf},\n}\n\n

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