\n \n \n
\n
\n\n \n \n Frances E.C. Stewart; Tatiane Micheletti; Eliot J.B. McIntire; Samuel Haché; Mathieu Leblond; Junior A. Tremblay; Ceres Barros; Ian Eddy; James Hodson; Fiona K.A. Schmiegelow; Alex M. Chubaty; and Steven G. Cumming\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Forecasting woodland caribou resource selection and demography under climate change in Canada’s Northwest Territories.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n In Ottawa, ON, May 2021. \n
ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]\n\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n\n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n
@inproceedings{frances_ec_stewart_forecasting_2021,\n\taddress = {Ottawa, ON},\n\ttitle = {Forecasting woodland caribou resource selection and demography under climate change in {Canada}’s {Northwest} {Territories}},\n\tabstract = {Environmental changes in Canada’s northern forests may be relatively severe because of polar amplification, leading to increased frequency and severity of drought and wildfires. This will change habitats of species and populations at risk, with important distributional and demographic consequences that will challenge long-term conservation and management planning. These challenges could be overcome by more realistic forecasts of future habitat conditions, based on climate sensitive simulations of key ecological processes (e.g. vegetation dynamics, fire) linked to models of wildlife habitat use and demographics. We forecast habitats and demographic parameters for five boreal woodland caribou populations under 90 years of climate-driven landscape change within the Taiga Plains ecozone of the Northwest Territories, Canada. We asked how the availability of caribou habitats, and caribou population growth rates may change under three climate warming scenarios. Our models were implemented and integrated within the Spatial Discrete Event Simulation (SpaDES) framework, a suite of R packages for nimble and reproducible spatial simulation and ecological modelling. Our results suggest a gradual but widespread decrease in the availability of high quality woodland caribou habitats to 2100, especially in the south due to conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. Many of the region's caribou populations are already predicted to be declining and these declines are not much changed under our simulations. This points to the need for improved representation of anthropic factors in these forecasts. Management plans for recovering and conserving these caribou populations may face spatially variable, independent changes in habitat quality and demographic rates.},\n\tauthor = {{Frances E.C. Stewart} and {Tatiane Micheletti} and {Eliot J.B. McIntire} and {Samuel Haché} and {Mathieu Leblond} and {Junior A. Tremblay} and {Ceres Barros} and {Ian Eddy} and {James Hodson} and {Fiona K.A. Schmiegelow} and {Alex M. Chubaty} and {Steven G. Cumming}},\n\tmonth = may,\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]},\n}\n\n
\n
\n\n\n
\n Environmental changes in Canada’s northern forests may be relatively severe because of polar amplification, leading to increased frequency and severity of drought and wildfires. This will change habitats of species and populations at risk, with important distributional and demographic consequences that will challenge long-term conservation and management planning. These challenges could be overcome by more realistic forecasts of future habitat conditions, based on climate sensitive simulations of key ecological processes (e.g. vegetation dynamics, fire) linked to models of wildlife habitat use and demographics. We forecast habitats and demographic parameters for five boreal woodland caribou populations under 90 years of climate-driven landscape change within the Taiga Plains ecozone of the Northwest Territories, Canada. We asked how the availability of caribou habitats, and caribou population growth rates may change under three climate warming scenarios. Our models were implemented and integrated within the Spatial Discrete Event Simulation (SpaDES) framework, a suite of R packages for nimble and reproducible spatial simulation and ecological modelling. Our results suggest a gradual but widespread decrease in the availability of high quality woodland caribou habitats to 2100, especially in the south due to conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. Many of the region's caribou populations are already predicted to be declining and these declines are not much changed under our simulations. This points to the need for improved representation of anthropic factors in these forecasts. Management plans for recovering and conserving these caribou populations may face spatially variable, independent changes in habitat quality and demographic rates.\n
\n\n\n
\n\n\n
\n
\n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; Tati, M.; Ceres, B.; Frances, S.; Ian, E.; Barry, C.; Celine, B.; Sam, H.; Junior, T.; Mathieu, L.; Alex, C.; Steve, C.; Alana, W.; and James, H.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Cumulative Effects of Natural and Anthropogenic Disturbances under Climate Change in Northern Ecosystems.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n October 2021.\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n\n \n \n Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n
@misc{mcintire_cumulative_2021,\n\ttitle = {Cumulative {Effects} of {Natural} and {Anthropogenic} {Disturbances} under {Climate} {Change} in {Northern} {Ecosystems}},\n\turl = {https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1B6SlTSTFHbESeXHNbf4hATFCCX6KbI1PnnmAuX6y6C8/edit#slide=id.gf24020f6f6_1_0},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Tati, Micheletti and Ceres, Barros and Frances, Stewart and Ian, Eddy and Barry, Cooke and Celine, Boisvenue and Sam, Hache and Junior, Tremblay and Mathieu, Leblond and Alex, Chubaty and Steve, Cumming and Alana, Westwood and James, Hodson},\n\tmonth = oct,\n\tyear = {2021},\n}\n\n
\n
\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n
\n
\n\n \n \n McIntire, Eliot\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Forecasting Landcover Change: Forests, Next Steps and Downstream Management Needs.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n September 2021.\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n\n \n \n Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n
@misc{mcintire_eliot_forecasting_2021,\n\taddress = {Virtual},\n\ttitle = {Forecasting {Landcover} {Change}: {Forests}, {Next} {Steps} and {Downstream} {Management} {Needs}},\n\turl = {https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/10G3Wvu-r4Ygeyhs2_R5qlwQIq0G-vC1pjrEVtmZUpTo/edit?usp=sharing},\n\tauthor = {{McIntire, Eliot}},\n\tmonth = sep,\n\tyear = {2021},\n}\n\n
\n
\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n
\n
\n\n \n \n McIntire, Eliot\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n LandR & LandR.CS & fireSense: Quick overview for NWT.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n February 2021.\n
ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]\n\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n\n \n \n Paper\n \n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n
@misc{mcintire_eliot_landr_2021,\n\taddress = {Virtual},\n\ttitle = {{LandR} \\& {LandR}.{CS} \\& {fireSense}: {Quick} overview for {NWT}},\n\turl = {https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1SQeGRivvA3cd3EF4kduVRLzBHKWYjIzd/edit#slide=id.p1},\n\tauthor = {{McIntire, Eliot}},\n\tmonth = feb,\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]},\n}\n\n
\n
\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n
\n
\n\n \n \n Geneviève Degré-Timmons; Ruth Greuel; Jennifer Baltzer; Jill Johnstone; Eliot McIntire; Nicola Day; Sarah Hart; Philip McLoughlin; Fiona Schmiegelow; Merritt Turetsky; Alexandre Truchon-Savard; Mario van Telgen; and Steven Cumming\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Predicting patterns of terrestrial lichen biomass recovery following boreal wildfires.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n In May 2021. \n
ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]\n\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n\n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n
@inproceedings{genevieve_degre-timmons_predicting_2021,\n\ttitle = {Predicting patterns of terrestrial lichen biomass recovery following boreal wildfires},\n\tabstract = {Increased fire activity due to climate change will impact the successional dynamics of boreal\nforests in northwestern Canada, with important consequences for caribou habitat. Early\nsuccessional forests are expected to support lower quantities of caribou forage lichens, but\ngeographic variation in lichen recovery times has been largely unexplored. In this study, we\nsampled across a broad latitudinal range extending from Saskatchewan to the Northwest\nTerritories, to compare lichen biomass accumulation in four boreal ecoprovinces. We focused\non the most valuable Cladonia species for boreal caribou. We developed new allometric\nequations to estimate lichen biomass from field measurements of lichen cover and depth; these\nallometries were consistent across ecoprovinces suggesting generalizability. We then used\nestimates of lichen abundance to quantify patterns of lichen recovery in different stand types\nand ecoprovinces. We fit logistic growth models with random effects to account for the\nhierarchical structure of the data (quadrats within plots) and heterogeneous variances to\naccount for differences in quadrat size among data sources. We found that a measure of lichen\nrecovery (time to 50\\% asymptotic value) varied from 28 to 73 years, depending on stand type\nand ecoprovince. These results provide a basis for estimating fire effects on future caribou\nhabitat that encompasses some of the large variation in lichen abundance and vegetation types\nacross the range of boreal woodland caribou in North America.},\n\tauthor = {{Geneviève Degré-Timmons} and {Ruth Greuel} and {Jennifer Baltzer} and {Jill Johnstone} and {Eliot McIntire} and {Nicola Day} and {Sarah Hart} and {Philip McLoughlin} and {Fiona Schmiegelow} and {Merritt Turetsky} and {Alexandre Truchon-Savard} and {Mario van Telgen} and {Steven Cumming}},\n\tmonth = may,\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]},\n}\n\n
\n
\n\n\n
\n Increased fire activity due to climate change will impact the successional dynamics of boreal forests in northwestern Canada, with important consequences for caribou habitat. Early successional forests are expected to support lower quantities of caribou forage lichens, but geographic variation in lichen recovery times has been largely unexplored. In this study, we sampled across a broad latitudinal range extending from Saskatchewan to the Northwest Territories, to compare lichen biomass accumulation in four boreal ecoprovinces. We focused on the most valuable Cladonia species for boreal caribou. We developed new allometric equations to estimate lichen biomass from field measurements of lichen cover and depth; these allometries were consistent across ecoprovinces suggesting generalizability. We then used estimates of lichen abundance to quantify patterns of lichen recovery in different stand types and ecoprovinces. We fit logistic growth models with random effects to account for the hierarchical structure of the data (quadrats within plots) and heterogeneous variances to account for differences in quadrat size among data sources. We found that a measure of lichen recovery (time to 50% asymptotic value) varied from 28 to 73 years, depending on stand type and ecoprovince. These results provide a basis for estimating fire effects on future caribou habitat that encompasses some of the large variation in lichen abundance and vegetation types across the range of boreal woodland caribou in North America.\n
\n\n\n
\n\n\n
\n
\n\n \n \n McIntire, Eliot\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Western Boreal Initiative: Cumulative effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under climate change in Western Canada: Assessing the trade-offs among long-term conservation of priority species and places, carbon sequestration, and land management: WORKSHOP AND END OF YEAR MEETING.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n April 2021.\n
ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]\n\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n\n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n
@misc{mcintire_eliot_western_2021,\n\taddress = {Virtual},\n\ttitle = {Western {Boreal} {Initiative}: {Cumulative} effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under climate change in {Western} {Canada}: {Assessing} the trade-offs among long-term conservation of priority species and places, carbon sequestration, and land management: {WORKSHOP} {AND} {END} {OF} {YEAR} {MEETING}},\n\tabstract = {Exchange between Implementation Team and Advisory Committee on the Western Boreal Initiative.},\n\tauthor = {{McIntire, Eliot}},\n\tmonth = apr,\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]},\n}\n\n
\n
\n\n\n
\n Exchange between Implementation Team and Advisory Committee on the Western Boreal Initiative.\n
\n\n\n
\n\n\n
\n\n\n
\n
\n\n \n \n Turner, Julie; Johnson, Cheryl; Daniel, Colin; McIntire, Eliot; and Hughes, Josie\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Past, present and future cumulative effects of harvest, fire & roads on boreal caribou.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n In May 2021. \n
ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]\n\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n\n \n\n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n
\n
@inproceedings{turner_julie_past_2021,\n\ttitle = {Past, present and future cumulative effects of harvest, fire \\& roads on boreal caribou},\n\tabstract = {The cumulative effects of ongoing disturbance threaten boreal caribou persistence. Undisturbed\nhabitat is one of the most critical factors in ensuring the future survival of caribou populations. In\na case study in the Churchill range of Ontario, we examine changes in disturbance over the\npast decade. We compare these changes to the first 10 years of a 40 year projection of timber\nharvest and road development derived from 2008/2009 harvest plans. In the past decade,\nobserved harvest was less than planned, suggesting that poor market conditions provided some\nshort-term relief to the Churchill caribou. However, we cannot assume that poor market\nconditions will persist. According to 2008/2009 harvest plans, the proportion of the range within\n500 m of anthropogenic disturbance was projected to reach 57\\% of the range by 2050\ncompared to the 31\\% observed disturbance in 2010. The 2050 disturbance level substantially\nexceeds the goal of maintaining at least 65\\% undisturbed habitat within a range. Projection\nmodels like ours can be used to assess the implications of plans for caribou. Better plans are\nnecessary to ensure sufficient future availability of undisturbed habitat in the Churchill range.},\n\tauthor = {{Turner, Julie} and {Johnson, Cheryl} and {Daniel, Colin} and {McIntire, Eliot} and {Hughes, Josie}},\n\tmonth = may,\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]},\n}\n\n
\n
\n\n\n
\n The cumulative effects of ongoing disturbance threaten boreal caribou persistence. Undisturbed habitat is one of the most critical factors in ensuring the future survival of caribou populations. In a case study in the Churchill range of Ontario, we examine changes in disturbance over the past decade. We compare these changes to the first 10 years of a 40 year projection of timber harvest and road development derived from 2008/2009 harvest plans. In the past decade, observed harvest was less than planned, suggesting that poor market conditions provided some short-term relief to the Churchill caribou. However, we cannot assume that poor market conditions will persist. According to 2008/2009 harvest plans, the proportion of the range within 500 m of anthropogenic disturbance was projected to reach 57% of the range by 2050 compared to the 31% observed disturbance in 2010. The 2050 disturbance level substantially exceeds the goal of maintaining at least 65% undisturbed habitat within a range. Projection models like ours can be used to assess the implications of plans for caribou. Better plans are necessary to ensure sufficient future availability of undisturbed habitat in the Churchill range.\n
\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n