\n

\n \n 2024\n \n \n (1)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Raymundo, A.; Micheletti, T.; Haché, S.; Stralberg, D.; Stewart, F. E. C.; Tremblay, J. A.; Barros, C.; Eddy, I. M. S.; Chubaty, A. M.; Leblond, M.; Mahon, C. L.; Van Wilgenburg, S. L.; Bayne, E. M.; Schmiegelow, F.; Docherty, T. D. S.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Cumming, S. G.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Climate Change Ecology, 7: 100079. July 2024.\n \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Climate-sensitive$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{raymundo_climate-sensitive_2024,\n\ttitle = {Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of {Northwestern} boreal landbirds},\n\tvolume = {7},\n\tissn = {2666-9005},\n\turl = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666900523000151},\n\tdoi = {10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100079},\n\tabstract = {Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity globally. Northern ecosystems, such as Canada's boreal forest, are predicted to experience particularly severe climate-induced changes. These changes may reduce the carrying capacity and habitat suitability of the boreal forest for many wildlife species. Boreal birds are susceptible to both direct and indirect effects of climate change, and several studies have predicted northward shifts in species distributions as temperatures become warmer. We forecasted spatially-explicit changes in the densities of 72 boreal landbird species using integrated climate change projections and a forest dynamics model in the Taiga Plains ecozone of the Northwest Territories (NT), Canada, over the 2011–2091 horizon. We 1) identified "winner," "loser," and "bellringer" species over short (2031) and long-term (2091) forecasts, 2) mapped landbird range and density changes under three contrasting Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and 3) quantify differences in landbird density predictions across a latitudinal gradient. Species that showed a moderate increase or decrease in their predicted abundance were considered "winners" and "losers," respectively. Species that showed a marked increase or decrease – a doubling or halving – of their predicted abundance in all three GCMs, were termed "bellringers". From 2011–2031, only 2/72 (2.8\\%) were considered winners, and 3/72 (4.2\\%) were losers. From 2011–2091, the abundance of more species was predicted to change: 26/72 (36.1\\%) were winners, and 10/72 species (13.9\\%) were losers. Four species were considered bellringers: Gray-cheeked Thrush, White-crowned Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, and American Tree Sparrow. Overall, projected range shifts were strongly oriented along a southeast-to-northwest axis. Shifts to the north and south were evenly distributed among all three GCMs. Our results suggest that future climate-mitigated distribution shifts and population declines of boreal landbirds will require targeted conservation actions. They also highlight the importance of the NT as a potential refugium for many boreal-breeding landbird species in Canada.},\n\turldate = {2024-01-10},\n\tjournal = {Climate Change Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Raymundo, A. and Micheletti, T. and Haché, S. and Stralberg, D. and Stewart, F. E. C. and Tremblay, J. A. and Barros, C. and Eddy, I. M. S. and Chubaty, A. M. and Leblond, M. and Mahon, C. L. and Van Wilgenburg, S. L. and Bayne, E. M. and Schmiegelow, F. and Docherty, T. D. S. and McIntire, E. J. B. and Cumming, S. G.},\n\tmonth = jul,\n\tyear = {2024},\n\tkeywords = {Boreal landbirds, Climate change, Ecological forecasting, SpaDES, Species-at-risk},\n\tpages = {100079},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity globally. Northern ecosystems, such as Canada's boreal forest, are predicted to experience particularly severe climate-induced changes. These changes may reduce the carrying capacity and habitat suitability of the boreal forest for many wildlife species. Boreal birds are susceptible to both direct and indirect effects of climate change, and several studies have predicted northward shifts in species distributions as temperatures become warmer. We forecasted spatially-explicit changes in the densities of 72 boreal landbird species using integrated climate change projections and a forest dynamics model in the Taiga Plains ecozone of the Northwest Territories (NT), Canada, over the 2011–2091 horizon. We 1) identified \"winner,\" \"loser,\" and \"bellringer\" species over short (2031) and long-term (2091) forecasts, 2) mapped landbird range and density changes under three contrasting Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and 3) quantify differences in landbird density predictions across a latitudinal gradient. Species that showed a moderate increase or decrease in their predicted abundance were considered \"winners\" and \"losers,\" respectively. Species that showed a marked increase or decrease – a doubling or halving – of their predicted abundance in all three GCMs, were termed \"bellringers\". From 2011–2031, only 2/72 (2.8%) were considered winners, and 3/72 (4.2%) were losers. From 2011–2091, the abundance of more species was predicted to change: 26/72 (36.1%) were winners, and 10/72 species (13.9%) were losers. Four species were considered bellringers: Gray-cheeked Thrush, White-crowned Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, and American Tree Sparrow. Overall, projected range shifts were strongly oriented along a southeast-to-northwest axis. Shifts to the north and south were evenly distributed among all three GCMs. Our results suggest that future climate-mitigated distribution shifts and population declines of boreal landbirds will require targeted conservation actions. They also highlight the importance of the NT as a potential refugium for many boreal-breeding landbird species in Canada.\n

\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2023\n \n \n (6)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Stewart, F.; Micheletti, T.; Cumming, S.; Barros, C.; Chubaty, A.; Dookie, A.; Duclos, I.; Eddy, I.; Haché, S.; Hodson, J.; Hughes, J.; Johnson, C.; Leblond, M.; Schmiegelow, F.; Tremblay, J.; and McIntire, E.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat change and population uncertainty for threatened caribou in Canada’s north.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecological Applications, 33(3): e2816. 2023.\n 0 citations (Crossref) [2023-09-29]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{stewart_climate-informed_2023,\n\ttitle = {Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat change and population uncertainty for threatened caribou in {Canada}’s north},\n\tvolume = {33},\n\tdoi = {10.1002/eap.2816},\n\tnumber = {3},\n\tjournal = {Ecological Applications},\n\tauthor = {Stewart, Frances and Micheletti, Tatiane and Cumming, Steve and Barros, Ceres and Chubaty, Alex and Dookie, Amanda and Duclos, Isabelle and Eddy, Ian and Haché, S. and Hodson, James and Hughes, Josie and Johnson, Cheryl and Leblond, Mathieu and Schmiegelow, Fiona and Tremblay, Junior and McIntire, Eliot},\n\tyear = {2023},\n\tnote = {0 citations (Crossref) [2023-09-29]},\n\tpages = {e2816},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Saturno, J.; Boeckner, M.; Hodson, James; Haché, S.; McAuley, Emily; McIntire, E. J. B.; Micheletti, Tatiane; Polfus, Jean; Sliwa, Sophie; Teed, Trevor; and Westwood, Alana\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Setting a foundation for Indigenous knowledge systems-guided boreal caribou (tǫdzı) conservation planning in the Western Boreal Region of Canada: a systematic map protocol.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecological Solutions and Evidence, 4(1): e12211. 2023.\n 0 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{saturno_setting_2023,\n\ttitle = {Setting a foundation for {Indigenous} knowledge systems-guided boreal caribou (tǫdzı) conservation planning in the {Western} {Boreal} {Region} of {Canada}: a systematic map protocol},\n\tvolume = {4},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12211},\n\tabstract = {1. In recent years, there has been increasing recognition by researchers\nin bringing together Western and Indigenous knowledge systems to\nstrengthen research in wildlife conservation and management.\nHistorically, this arena has not readily made space for Indigenous\nknowledge holders to share components of their knowledge systems with\nagency and to support their own self-determination as equal partners.\n2. Since time immemorial, Indigenous Peoples have been developing\ntheir own knowledge systems, based on intimate knowledge of the lands\nof which they are caretakers. There remains enormous potential for\n\nWestern scientists to engage in equitable knowledge exchange and co-production with Indigenous Peoples, including to enhance co-\nmanagement practices. This applies to species like caribou (Rangifer\n\ntarandus) which hold ecological value in the boreal forest and cultural\nimportance for Indigenous and Western Peoples in Canada.\n\n3. We will create a systematic literature map that will examine peer-\nreviewed and gray literature involving spatial mapping of caribou based\n\non Indigenous knowledge to a) characterize available data and\npreviously engaged knowledge holders and b) identify ‘bright spots’;\n\n(i.e., positive experiences) that exemplify best practices for co-\nproduction as recommended by Indigenous Peoples and Western\n\nscientists.\n4. Searches will be conducted in English in selected databases. Search\nstrings will be tested against a ‘test list’ of documents previously chosen\nto determine strings with maximum sensitivity and specificity. Results\nwill be reviewed through the: (1) title and abstract; and (2) full text.\n5. All screening decisions will be recorded in a database, with 10\\% of\nfull-text screening decisions validated. Items retained for inclusion in the\nsystematic map will be coded according to a standardized strategy of\nextracting data using a list of coding questions. Ten percent of coding\noutcomes will be validated by a second reviewer.\n6. The systematic map will employ a narrative synthesis approach that\nwill compare retained studies against a list of best practices from the\ncurrent proposal. It will examine case studies that performed well\naccording to the list of best practices and contribute to a repository of\npreviously documented Indigenous knowledge systems about caribou to\nsupport projects using Indigenous knowledge and Western sciences.},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {Ecological Solutions and Evidence},\n\tauthor = {Saturno, Jacquelyn and Boeckner, Matthew and {Hodson, James} and Haché, S. and {McAuley, Emily} and McIntire, E. J. B. and {Micheletti, Tatiane} and {Polfus, Jean} and {Sliwa, Sophie} and {Teed, Trevor} and {Westwood, Alana}},\n\tyear = {2023},\n\tnote = {0 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]},\n\tpages = {e12211},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n 1. In recent years, there has been increasing recognition by researchers in bringing together Western and Indigenous knowledge systems to strengthen research in wildlife conservation and management. Historically, this arena has not readily made space for Indigenous knowledge holders to share components of their knowledge systems with agency and to support their own self-determination as equal partners. 2. Since time immemorial, Indigenous Peoples have been developing their own knowledge systems, based on intimate knowledge of the lands of which they are caretakers. There remains enormous potential for Western scientists to engage in equitable knowledge exchange and co-production with Indigenous Peoples, including to enhance co- management practices. This applies to species like caribou (Rangifer tarandus) which hold ecological value in the boreal forest and cultural importance for Indigenous and Western Peoples in Canada. 3. We will create a systematic literature map that will examine peer- reviewed and gray literature involving spatial mapping of caribou based on Indigenous knowledge to a) characterize available data and previously engaged knowledge holders and b) identify ‘bright spots’; (i.e., positive experiences) that exemplify best practices for co- production as recommended by Indigenous Peoples and Western scientists. 4. Searches will be conducted in English in selected databases. Search strings will be tested against a ‘test list’ of documents previously chosen to determine strings with maximum sensitivity and specificity. Results will be reviewed through the: (1) title and abstract; and (2) full text. 5. All screening decisions will be recorded in a database, with 10% of full-text screening decisions validated. Items retained for inclusion in the systematic map will be coded according to a standardized strategy of extracting data using a list of coding questions. Ten percent of coding outcomes will be validated by a second reviewer. 6. The systematic map will employ a narrative synthesis approach that will compare retained studies against a list of best practices from the current proposal. It will examine case studies that performed well according to the list of best practices and contribute to a repository of previously documented Indigenous knowledge systems about caribou to support projects using Indigenous knowledge and Western sciences.\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Bogdziewicz, M.; Acuña, M. A.; Andrus, R.; Ascoli, D.; Bergeron, Y.; Brveiller, D.; Boivin, T.; Bonal, R.; Caignard, T.; Cailleret, M.; Calama, R.; Calderon, S. D.; Camarero, J. J.; Chang-Yang, C.; Chave, J.; Chianucci, F.; Cleavitt, N. L.; Courbaud, B.; Cutini, A.; Curt, T.; Das, A. J.; Davi, H.; Delpierre, N.; Delzon, S.; Dietze, M.; Dormont, L.; Farfan-Rios, W.; Gehring, C. A.; Gilbert, G. S.; Gratzer, G.; Greenberg, C. H.; Guignabert, A.; Guo, Q.; Hacket-Pain, A.; Hampe, A.; Han, Q.; Hoshizaki, K.; Ibanez, I.; Johnstone, J. F.; Journé, V.; Kitzberger, T.; Knops, J. M. H.; Kunstler, G.; Kobe, R.; Lageard, J. G. A.; LaMontagne, J. M.; Ledwon, M.; Leininger, T.; Limousin, J.; Lutz, J. A.; Macias, D.; Marell, A.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Moran, E.; Motta, R.; Myers, J. A.; Nagel, T. A.; Naoe, S.; Noguchi, M.; Oguro, M.; Kurokawa, H.; Ourcival, J.; Parmenter, R.; Perez-Ramos, I. M.; Piechnik, L.; Podgórski, T.; Poulsen, J.; Qiu, T.; Redmond, M. D.; Reid, C. D.; Rodman, K. C.; Šamonil, P.; Holik, J.; Scher, C. L.; Van Marle, H. S.; Seget, B.; Shibata, M.; Sharma, S.; Silman, M.; Steele, M. A.; Straub, J. N.; Sun, I.; Sutton, S.; Swenson, J. J.; Thomas, P. A.; Uriarte, M.; Vacchiano, G.; Veblen, T. T.; Wright, B.; Wright, S. J.; Whitham, T. G.; Zhu, K.; Zimmerman, J. K.; Zywiec, M.; and Clark, J. S.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Global Ecology and Biogeography, 32(5): 683–694. 2023.\n 4 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 2 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/geb.13652\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Linking$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{bogdziewicz_linking_2023,\n\ttitle = {Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees},\n\tvolume = {32},\n\tissn = {1466-8238},\n\turl = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/geb.13652},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/geb.13652},\n\tabstract = {Aim Our understanding of the mechanisms that maintain forest diversity under changing climate can benefit from knowledge about traits that are closely linked to fitness. We tested whether the link between traits and seed number and seed size is consistent with two hypotheses, termed the leaf economics spectrum and the plant size syndrome, or whether reproduction represents an independent dimension related to a seed size–seed number trade-off. Location Most of the data come from Europe, North and Central America and East Asia. A minority of the data come from South America, Africa and Australia. Time period 1960–2022. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods We gathered 12 million observations of the number of seeds produced in 784 tree species. We estimated the number of seeds produced by individual trees and scaled it up to the species level. Next, we used principal components analysis and generalized joint attribute modelling (GJAM) to map seed number and size on the tree traits spectrum. Results Incorporating seed size and number into trait analysis while controlling for environment and phylogeny with GJAM exposes relationships in trees that might otherwise remain hidden. Production of the large total biomass of seeds [product of seed number and seed size; hereafter, species seed productivity (SSP)] is associated with high leaf area, low foliar nitrogen, low specific leaf area (SLA) and dense wood. Production of high seed numbers is associated with small seeds produced by nutrient-demanding species with softwood, small leaves and high SLA. Trait covariation is consistent with opposing strategies: one fast-growing, early successional, with high dispersal, and the other slow-growing, stress-tolerant, that recruit in shaded conditions. Main conclusions Earth system models currently assume that reproductive allocation is indifferent among plant functional types. Easily measurable seed size is a strong predictor of the seed number and species seed productivity. The connection of SSP with the functional traits can form the first basis of improved fecundity prediction across global forests.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {5},\n\turldate = {2023-04-11},\n\tjournal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},\n\tauthor = {Bogdziewicz, Michal and Acuña, Marie-Claire Aravena and Andrus, Robert and Ascoli, Davide and Bergeron, Yves and Brveiller, Daniel and Boivin, Thomas and Bonal, Raul and Caignard, Thomas and Cailleret, Maxime and Calama, Rafael and Calderon, Sergio Donoso and Camarero, J. Julio and Chang-Yang, Chia-Hao and Chave, Jerome and Chianucci, Francesco and Cleavitt, Natalie L. and Courbaud, Benoit and Cutini, Andrea and Curt, Thomas and Das, Adrian J. and Davi, Hendrik and Delpierre, Nicolas and Delzon, Sylvain and Dietze, Michael and Dormont, Laurent and Farfan-Rios, William and Gehring, Catherine A. and Gilbert, Gregory S. and Gratzer, Georg and Greenberg, Cathryn H. and Guignabert, Arthur and Guo, Qinfeng and Hacket-Pain, Andrew and Hampe, Arndt and Han, Qingmin and Hoshizaki, Kazuhiko and Ibanez, Ines and Johnstone, Jill F. and Journé, Valentin and Kitzberger, Thomas and Knops, Johannes M. H. and Kunstler, Georges and Kobe, Richard and Lageard, Jonathan G. A. and LaMontagne, Jalene M. and Ledwon, Mateusz and Leininger, Theodor and Limousin, Jean-Marc and Lutz, James A. and Macias, Diana and Marell, Anders and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Moran, Emily and Motta, Renzo and Myers, Jonathan A. and Nagel, Thomas A. and Naoe, Shoji and Noguchi, Mahoko and Oguro, Michio and Kurokawa, Hiroko and Ourcival, Jean-Marc and Parmenter, Robert and Perez-Ramos, Ignacio M. and Piechnik, Lukasz and Podgórski, Tomasz and Poulsen, John and Qiu, Tong and Redmond, Miranda D. and Reid, Chantal D. and Rodman, Kyle C. and Šamonil, Pavel and Holik, Jan and Scher, C. Lane and Van Marle, Harald Schmidt and Seget, Barbara and Shibata, Mitsue and Sharma, Shubhi and Silman, Miles and Steele, Michael A. and Straub, Jacob N. and Sun, I-Fang and Sutton, Samantha and Swenson, Jennifer J. and Thomas, Peter A. and Uriarte, Maria and Vacchiano, Giorgio and Veblen, Thomas T. and Wright, Boyd and Wright, S. Joseph and Whitham, Thomas G. and Zhu, Kai and Zimmerman, Jess K. and Zywiec, Magdalna and Clark, James S.},\n\tyear = {2023},\n\tnote = {4 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n2 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n\\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/geb.13652},\n\tkeywords = {fecundity, functional traits, leaf economics, life history strategies, size syndrome, tree recruitment},\n\tpages = {683--694},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n Aim Our understanding of the mechanisms that maintain forest diversity under changing climate can benefit from knowledge about traits that are closely linked to fitness. We tested whether the link between traits and seed number and seed size is consistent with two hypotheses, termed the leaf economics spectrum and the plant size syndrome, or whether reproduction represents an independent dimension related to a seed size–seed number trade-off. Location Most of the data come from Europe, North and Central America and East Asia. A minority of the data come from South America, Africa and Australia. Time period 1960–2022. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods We gathered 12 million observations of the number of seeds produced in 784 tree species. We estimated the number of seeds produced by individual trees and scaled it up to the species level. Next, we used principal components analysis and generalized joint attribute modelling (GJAM) to map seed number and size on the tree traits spectrum. Results Incorporating seed size and number into trait analysis while controlling for environment and phylogeny with GJAM exposes relationships in trees that might otherwise remain hidden. Production of the large total biomass of seeds [product of seed number and seed size; hereafter, species seed productivity (SSP)] is associated with high leaf area, low foliar nitrogen, low specific leaf area (SLA) and dense wood. Production of high seed numbers is associated with small seeds produced by nutrient-demanding species with softwood, small leaves and high SLA. Trait covariation is consistent with opposing strategies: one fast-growing, early successional, with high dispersal, and the other slow-growing, stress-tolerant, that recruit in shaded conditions. Main conclusions Earth system models currently assume that reproductive allocation is indifferent among plant functional types. Easily measurable seed size is a strong predictor of the seed number and species seed productivity. The connection of SSP with the functional traits can form the first basis of improved fecundity prediction across global forests.\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Barros, C.; Luo, Y.; Chubaty, A. M.; Eddy, I. M. S.; Micheletti, T.; Boisvenue, C.; Andison, D. W.; Cumming, S. G.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Empowering ecological modellers with a PERFICT workflow: seamlessly linking data, parameterisation, prediction, validation and visualisation.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 14(1): 173–188. 2023.\n 3 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{barros_empowering_2023,\n\ttitle = {Empowering ecological modellers with a {PERFICT} workflow: seamlessly linking data, parameterisation, prediction, validation and visualisation},\n\tvolume = {14},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14034},\n\tabstract = {1. Modelling is widely used in ecology and its utility continues to increase as scientists,\nmanagers and policy-makers face pressure to effectively manage ecosystems and meet\nconservation goals with limited resources. As the urgency to forecast ecosystem\nresponses to global change grows, so do the number and complexity of predictive\necological models and the value of iterative prediction, both of which demand validation\nand cross-model comparisons. This challenges ecologists to provide predictive models\nthat are reusable, interoperable, transparent, and able to accommodate updates to both\ndata and algorithms.\n2. We propose a practical solution to this challenge based on the PERFICT principles\n(frequent Predictions and Evaluations of Reusable, Freely accessible, Interoperable\nmodels, built within Continuous workflows that are routinely Tested), using a modular and\nintegrated framework. We present its general implementation across seven common\ncomponents of ecological model applications – i) the modelling toolkit; ii) data acquisition\nand treatment; iii) model parameterisation and calibration; iv) obtaining predictions; v)\nmodel validation; vi) analysing and presenting model outputs; and vii) testing model code\n– and apply it to two approaches used to predict species distributions: 1) a static statistical\nmodel, and 2) a complex spatiotemporally dynamic model.\n3. Adopting a continuous workflow enabled us to reuse our models in new study areas,\nupdate predictions with new data, and re-parameterise with different interoperable\nmodules using freely accessible data sources, all with minimal user input. This allowed\nrepeating predictions and automatically evaluating their quality, while centralised inputs,\nparameters and outputs, facilitated ensemble forecasting and tracking uncertainty.\nImportantly, the integrated model validation promotes a continuous evaluation of the\nquality of more- or less-parsimonious models, which is valuable in predictive ecological\nmodelling.\n4. By linking all stages of an ecological modelling exercise, it is possible to overcome\ncommon challenges faced by ecological modellers, such as changing study areas,\nchoosing between different modelling approaches, and evaluating the appropriateness of\nthe model. This ultimately creates a more equitable and robust playing field for both\nmodellers and end users (e.g., managers), and contributes to position predictive ecology\nas a central contributor to global change forecasting.},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution},\n\tauthor = {Barros, Ceres and Luo, Yong and Chubaty, Alex M. and Eddy, Ian M. S. and Micheletti, Tatiane and Boisvenue, Céline and Andison, David W. and Cumming, Steven G. and McIntire, E. J. B.},\n\tyear = {2023},\n\tnote = {3 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]},\n\tpages = {173--188},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n 1. Modelling is widely used in ecology and its utility continues to increase as scientists, managers and policy-makers face pressure to effectively manage ecosystems and meet conservation goals with limited resources. As the urgency to forecast ecosystem responses to global change grows, so do the number and complexity of predictive ecological models and the value of iterative prediction, both of which demand validation and cross-model comparisons. This challenges ecologists to provide predictive models that are reusable, interoperable, transparent, and able to accommodate updates to both data and algorithms. 2. We propose a practical solution to this challenge based on the PERFICT principles (frequent Predictions and Evaluations of Reusable, Freely accessible, Interoperable models, built within Continuous workflows that are routinely Tested), using a modular and integrated framework. We present its general implementation across seven common components of ecological model applications – i) the modelling toolkit; ii) data acquisition and treatment; iii) model parameterisation and calibration; iv) obtaining predictions; v) model validation; vi) analysing and presenting model outputs; and vii) testing model code – and apply it to two approaches used to predict species distributions: 1) a static statistical model, and 2) a complex spatiotemporally dynamic model. 3. Adopting a continuous workflow enabled us to reuse our models in new study areas, update predictions with new data, and re-parameterise with different interoperable modules using freely accessible data sources, all with minimal user input. This allowed repeating predictions and automatically evaluating their quality, while centralised inputs, parameters and outputs, facilitated ensemble forecasting and tracking uncertainty. Importantly, the integrated model validation promotes a continuous evaluation of the quality of more- or less-parsimonious models, which is valuable in predictive ecological modelling. 4. By linking all stages of an ecological modelling exercise, it is possible to overcome common challenges faced by ecological modellers, such as changing study areas, choosing between different modelling approaches, and evaluating the appropriateness of the model. This ultimately creates a more equitable and robust playing field for both modellers and end users (e.g., managers), and contributes to position predictive ecology as a central contributor to global change forecasting.\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Micheletti, T.; Haché, S.; Stewart, F. E C; Chubaty, A. M; Barros, C.; Bayne, E. M; Cumming, S. G; Docherty, T. D S; Dookie, A.; Duclos, I.; Eddy, I. M S; Gadallah, Z.; Haas, C. A; Hodson, J.; Leblond, M.; Mahon, C L.; Schmiegelow, F.; Tremblay, J. A; Van Wilgenburg, S. L; Westwood, A. R; and McIntire, E. J B\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Will this umbrella leak? A caribou umbrella index for boreal bird conservation.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Conservation Science and Practice. 2023.\n 3 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{micheletti_will_2023,\n\ttitle = {Will this umbrella leak? {A} caribou umbrella index for boreal bird conservation},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12908},\n\tjournal = {Conservation Science and Practice},\n\tauthor = {Micheletti, Tati and Haché, Samuel and Stewart, Frances E C and Chubaty, Alex M and Barros, Ceres and Bayne, Erin M and Cumming, Steven G and Docherty, Teegan D S and Dookie, Amanda and Duclos, Isabelle and Eddy, Ian M S and Gadallah, Zuzu and Haas, Claudia A and Hodson, James and Leblond, Mathieu and Mahon, C Lisa and Schmiegelow, Fiona and Tremblay, Junior A and Van Wilgenburg, Steven L and Westwood, Alana R and McIntire, Eliot J B},\n\tyear = {2023},\n\tnote = {3 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Qiu, T.; Aravena, M.; Ascoli, D.; Bergeron, Y.; Bogdziewicz, M.; Boivin, T.; Bonal, R.; Caignard, T.; Cailleret, M.; Calama, R.; Calderon, S. D.; Camarero, J. J.; Chang-Yang, C.; Chave, J.; Chianucci, F.; Courbaud, B.; Cutini, A.; Das, A. J.; Delpierre, N.; Delzon, S.; Dietze, M.; Dormont, L.; Espelta, J. M.; Fahey, T. J.; Farfan-Rios, W.; Franklin, J. F.; Gehring, C. A.; Gilbert, G. S.; Gratzer, G.; Greenberg, C. H.; Guignabert, A.; Guo, Q.; Hacket-Pain, A.; Hampe, A.; Han, Q.; Holik, J.; Hoshizaki, K.; Ibanez, I.; Johnstone, J. F.; Journé, V.; Kitzberger, T.; Knops, J. M. H.; Kunstler, G.; Kurokawa, H.; Lageard, J. G. A.; LaMontagne, J. M.; Lefevre, F.; Leininger, T.; Limousin, J.; Lutz, J. A.; Macias, D.; Marell, A.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Moore, C. M.; Moran, E.; Motta, R.; Myers, J. A.; Nagel, T. A.; Naoe, S.; Noguchi, M.; Oguro, M.; Parmenter, R.; Pearse, I. S.; Perez-Ramos, I. M.; Piechnik, L.; Podgorski, T.; Poulsen, J.; Redmond, M. D.; Reid, C. D.; Rodman, K. C.; Rodriguez-Sanchez, F.; Samonil, P.; Sanguinetti, J. D.; Scher, C. L.; Seget, B.; Sharma, S.; Shibata, M.; Silman, M.; Steele, M. A.; Stephenson, N. L.; Straub, J. N.; Sutton, S.; Swenson, J. J.; Swift, M.; Thomas, P. A.; Uriarte, M.; Vacchiano, G.; Whipple, A. V.; Whitham, T. G.; Wion, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Zhu, K.; Zimmerman, J. K.; Zywiec, M.; and Clark, J. S.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Nature Plants, 9(7): 1044–1056. July 2023.\n 1 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 1 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] Number: 7 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Masting$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{qiu_masting_2023,\n\ttitle = {Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients},\n\tvolume = {9},\n\tcopyright = {2023 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},\n\tissn = {2055-0278},\n\turl = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-023-01446-5},\n\tdoi = {10.1038/s41477-023-01446-5},\n\tabstract = {The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {7},\n\turldate = {2023-07-15},\n\tjournal = {Nature Plants},\n\tauthor = {Qiu, Tong and Aravena, Marie-Claire and Ascoli, Davide and Bergeron, Yves and Bogdziewicz, Michal and Boivin, Thomas and Bonal, Raul and Caignard, Thomas and Cailleret, Maxime and Calama, Rafael and Calderon, Sergio Donoso and Camarero, J. Julio and Chang-Yang, Chia-Hao and Chave, Jerome and Chianucci, Francesco and Courbaud, Benoit and Cutini, Andrea and Das, Adrian J. and Delpierre, Nicolas and Delzon, Sylvain and Dietze, Michael and Dormont, Laurent and Espelta, Josep Maria and Fahey, Timothy J. and Farfan-Rios, William and Franklin, Jerry F. and Gehring, Catherine A. and Gilbert, Gregory S. and Gratzer, Georg and Greenberg, Cathryn H. and Guignabert, Arthur and Guo, Qinfeng and Hacket-Pain, Andrew and Hampe, Arndt and Han, Qingmin and Holik, Jan and Hoshizaki, Kazuhiko and Ibanez, Ines and Johnstone, Jill F. and Journé, Valentin and Kitzberger, Thomas and Knops, Johannes M. H. and Kunstler, Georges and Kurokawa, Hiroko and Lageard, Jonathan G. A. and LaMontagne, Jalene M. and Lefevre, Francois and Leininger, Theodor and Limousin, Jean-Marc and Lutz, James A. and Macias, Diana and Marell, Anders and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Moore, Christopher M. and Moran, Emily and Motta, Renzo and Myers, Jonathan A. and Nagel, Thomas A. and Naoe, Shoji and Noguchi, Mahoko and Oguro, Michio and Parmenter, Robert and Pearse, Ian S. and Perez-Ramos, Ignacio M. and Piechnik, Lukasz and Podgorski, Tomasz and Poulsen, John and Redmond, Miranda D. and Reid, Chantal D. and Rodman, Kyle C. and Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco and Samonil, Pavel and Sanguinetti, Javier D. and Scher, C. Lane and Seget, Barbara and Sharma, Shubhi and Shibata, Mitsue and Silman, Miles and Steele, Michael A. and Stephenson, Nathan L. and Straub, Jacob N. and Sutton, Samantha and Swenson, Jennifer J. and Swift, Margaret and Thomas, Peter A. and Uriarte, Maria and Vacchiano, Giorgio and Whipple, Amy V. and Whitham, Thomas G. and Wion, Andreas P. and Wright, S. Joseph and Zhu, Kai and Zimmerman, Jess K. and Zywiec, Magdalena and Clark, James S.},\n\tmonth = jul,\n\tyear = {2023},\n\tnote = {1 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n1 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nNumber: 7\nPublisher: Nature Publishing Group},\n\tkeywords = {Evolutionary ecology, Forest ecology},\n\tpages = {1044--1056},\n}\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2022\n \n \n (5)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Journé, V.; Andrus, R.; Aravena, M.; Ascoli, D.; Berretti, R.; Berveiller, D.; Bogdziewicz, M.; Boivin, T.; Bonal, R.; Caignard, T.; Calama, R.; Camarero, J. J.; Chang-Yang, C.; Courbaud, B.; Courbet, F.; Curt, T.; Das, A. J.; Daskalakou, E.; Davi, H.; Delpierre, N.; Delzon, S.; Dietze, M.; Donoso Calderon, S.; Dormont, L.; Maria Espelta, J.; Fahey, T. J.; Farfan-Rios, W.; Gehring, C. A.; Gilbert, G. S.; Gratzer, G.; Greenberg, C. H.; Guo, Q.; Hacket-Pain, A.; Hampe, A.; Han, Q.; Lambers, J. H. R.; Hoshizaki, K.; Ibanez, I.; Johnstone, J. F.; Kabeya, D.; Kays, R.; Kitzberger, T.; Knops, J. M. H.; Kobe, R. K.; Kunstler, G.; Lageard, J. G. A.; LaMontagne, J. M.; Leininger, T.; Limousin, J.; Lutz, J. A.; Macias, D.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Moore, C. M.; Moran, E.; Motta, R.; Myers, J. A.; Nagel, T. A.; Noguchi, K.; Ourcival, J.; Parmenter, R.; Pearse, I. S.; Perez-Ramos, I. M.; Piechnik, L.; Poulsen, J.; Poulton-Kamakura, R.; Qiu, T.; Redmond, M. D.; Reid, C. D.; Rodman, K. C.; Rodriguez-Sanchez, F.; Sanguinetti, J. D.; Scher, C. L.; Marle, H. S. V.; Seget, B.; Sharma, S.; Silman, M.; Steele, M. A.; Stephenson, N. L.; Straub, J. N.; Swenson, J. J.; Swift, M.; Thomas, P. A.; Uriarte, M.; Vacchiano, G.; Veblen, T. T.; Whipple, A. V.; Whitham, T. G.; Wright, B.; Wright, S. J.; Zhu, K.; Zimmerman, J. K.; Zlotin, R.; Zywiec, M.; and Clark, J. S.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Globally, tree fecundity exceeds productivity gradients.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecology Letters, 25(6): 1471–1482. 2022.\n 9 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 10 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.14012\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Globally,$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{journe_globally_2022,\n\ttitle = {Globally, tree fecundity exceeds productivity gradients},\n\tvolume = {25},\n\tissn = {1461-0248},\n\turl = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.14012},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/ele.14012},\n\tabstract = {Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows a 250-fold increase in seed abundance from cold-dry to warm-wet climates, driven primarily by a 100-fold increase in seed production for a given tree size. The modest (threefold) increase in forest productivity across the same climate gradient cannot explain the magnitudes of these trends. The increase in seeds per tree can arise from adaptive evolution driven by intense species interactions or from the direct effects of a warm, moist climate on tree fecundity. Either way, the massive differences in seed supply ramify through food webs potentially explaining a disproportionate role for species interactions in the wet tropics.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {6},\n\turldate = {2022-04-27},\n\tjournal = {Ecology Letters},\n\tauthor = {Journé, Valentin and Andrus, Robert and Aravena, Marie-Claire and Ascoli, Davide and Berretti, Roberta and Berveiller, Daniel and Bogdziewicz, Michal and Boivin, Thomas and Bonal, Raul and Caignard, Thomas and Calama, Rafael and Camarero, Jesús Julio and Chang-Yang, Chia-Hao and Courbaud, Benoit and Courbet, Francois and Curt, Thomas and Das, Adrian J. and Daskalakou, Evangelia and Davi, Hendrik and Delpierre, Nicolas and Delzon, Sylvain and Dietze, Michael and Donoso Calderon, Sergio and Dormont, Laurent and Maria Espelta, Josep and Fahey, Timothy J. and Farfan-Rios, William and Gehring, Catherine A. and Gilbert, Gregory S. and Gratzer, Georg and Greenberg, Cathryn H. and Guo, Qinfeng and Hacket-Pain, Andrew and Hampe, Arndt and Han, Qingmin and Lambers, Janneke Hille Ris and Hoshizaki, Kazuhiko and Ibanez, Ines and Johnstone, Jill F. and Kabeya, Daisuke and Kays, Roland and Kitzberger, Thomas and Knops, Johannes M. H. and Kobe, Richard K. and Kunstler, Georges and Lageard, Jonathan G. A. and LaMontagne, Jalene M. and Leininger, Theodor and Limousin, Jean-Marc and Lutz, James A. and Macias, Diana and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Moore, Christopher M. and Moran, Emily and Motta, Renzo and Myers, Jonathan A. and Nagel, Thomas A. and Noguchi, Kyotaro and Ourcival, Jean-Marc and Parmenter, Robert and Pearse, Ian S. and Perez-Ramos, Ignacio M. and Piechnik, Lukasz and Poulsen, John and Poulton-Kamakura, Renata and Qiu, Tong and Redmond, Miranda D. and Reid, Chantal D. and Rodman, Kyle C. and Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco and Sanguinetti, Javier D. and Scher, C. Lane and Marle, Harald Schmidt Van and Seget, Barbara and Sharma, Shubhi and Silman, Miles and Steele, Michael A. and Stephenson, Nathan L. and Straub, Jacob N. and Swenson, Jennifer J. and Swift, Margaret and Thomas, Peter A. and Uriarte, Maria and Vacchiano, Giorgio and Veblen, Thomas T. and Whipple, Amy V. and Whitham, Thomas G. and Wright, Boyd and Wright, S. Joseph and Zhu, Kai and Zimmerman, Jess K. and Zlotin, Roman and Zywiec, Magdalena and Clark, James S.},\n\tyear = {2022},\n\tnote = {9 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n10 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n\\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.14012},\n\tkeywords = {climate, competition, forest regeneration, seed consumption, species interactions, tree fecundity},\n\tpages = {1471--1482},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Qiu, T.; Andrus, R.; ...; McIntire, E. J. B.; ...; and Clark, J. S.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Nature Communications, 13: 2381. 2022.\n 17 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{qiu_limits_2022,\n\ttitle = {Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery},\n\tvolume = {13},\n\tdoi = {10.1038/s41467-022-30037-9},\n\tjournal = {Nature Communications},\n\tauthor = {Qiu, Tong and Andrus, Robert and ... and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and ... and Clark, James S.},\n\tyear = {2022},\n\tnote = {17 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]},\n\tpages = {2381},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; Chubaty, A. M.; Cumming, S. G.; Andison, D.; Barros, C.; Boisvenue, C.; Haché, S.; Luo, Y.; Micheletti, T.; and Stewart, F. E. C.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n PERFICT: A Re-imagined foundation for predictive ecology.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecology Letters, 25(6): 1345–1351. 2022.\n 12 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 10 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13994\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"PERFICT:$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_perfict_2022,\n\ttitle = {{PERFICT}: {A} {Re}-imagined foundation for predictive ecology},\n\tvolume = {25},\n\tissn = {1461-0248},\n\tshorttitle = {{PERFICT}},\n\turl = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.13994},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/ele.13994},\n\tabstract = {Making predictions from ecological models—and comparing them to data—offers a coherent approach to evaluate model quality, regardless of model complexity or modelling paradigm. To date, our ability to use predictions for developing, validating, updating, integrating and applying models across scientific disciplines while influencing management decisions, policies, and the public has been hampered by disparate perspectives on prediction and inadequately integrated approaches. We present an updated foundation for Predictive Ecology based on seven principles applied to ecological modelling: make frequent Predictions, Evaluate models, make models Reusable, Freely accessible and Interoperable, built within Continuous workflows that are routinely Tested (PERFICT). We outline some benefits of working with these principles: accelerating science; linking with data science; and improving science-policy integration.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {6},\n\turldate = {2022-03-22},\n\tjournal = {Ecology Letters},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Chubaty, Alex M. and Cumming, Steven G. and Andison, Dave and Barros, Ceres and Boisvenue, Céline and Haché, Samuel and Luo, Yong and Micheletti, Tatiane and Stewart, Frances E. C.},\n\tyear = {2022},\n\tnote = {12 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n10 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n\\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13994},\n\tkeywords = {FAIR data, computational workflows, cross-disciplinary, ecological forecasting, open models, predictive ecology, predictive validation, science-policy integration},\n\tpages = {1345--1351},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Lawley, C. J. M.; Mitchell, M. G. E.; Stralberg, D.; Schuster, R.; McIntire, E.; and Bennett, J. R.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Mapping Canada’s Green Economic Pathways for Battery Minerals: Balancing Prospectivity Modelling With Conservation and Biodiversity Values.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Earth Science, Systems and Society, 2: 10064. 2022.\n 1 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 1 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] Publisher: Frontiers\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Mapping$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{lawley_mapping_2022,\n\ttitle = {Mapping {Canada}’s {Green} {Economic} {Pathways} for {Battery} {Minerals}: {Balancing} {Prospectivity} {Modelling} {With} {Conservation} and {Biodiversity} {Values}},\n\tvolume = {2},\n\tissn = {2634-730X},\n\tshorttitle = {Mapping {Canada}’s {Green} {Economic} {Pathways} for {Battery} {Minerals}},\n\turl = {https://www.escubed.org/articles/10.3389/esss.2022.10064/full},\n\tdoi = {10.3389/esss.2022.10064},\n\tabstract = {Electrification of Canada’s energy and transport sectors is essential to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and will require a vast amount of raw materials. A large proportion of these critical raw materials are expected to be sourced from as yet undiscovered mineral deposits, which has the potential to accelerate environmental pressures on natural ecosystems. Herein we overlay new prospectivity model results for a major source of Canada’s battery minerals (i.e., magmatic Ni ± Cu ± Co ± PGE mineral systems) with five ecosystem services (i.e., freshwater resources, carbon, nature-based recreation, species at risk, climate-change refugia) and gaps in the current protected-area network to identify areas of high geological potential with lower ecological risk. New prospectivity models were trained on high-resolution geological and geophysical survey compilations using spatial cross-validation methods. The area under the curve for the receive operating characteristics (ROC) plot and the preferred gradient boosting machines model is 0.972, reducing the search space for more than 90\\% of deposits in the test set by 89\\%. Using the inflection point on the ROC plot as a threshold, we demonstrate that 16\\% of the most prospective model cells partially overlap with the current network of protected and other conserved areas, further reducing the search space for new critical mineral deposits. The vast majority of the remaining high prospectivity cells correspond to ecoregions with less than half of the protected areas required to meet national conservation targets. Poorly protected ecoregions with one or more of the five ecosystem services are interpreted as hotspots with the highest potential for conflicting land-use priorities in the future, including parts of southern Ontario and Québec, western Labrador, and northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Managing hotspots with multiple land-use priorities would necessarily involve partnerships with both Indigenous peoples whose traditional lands are affected, and other impacted communities. We suggest that prospectivity models and other machine learning methods can be used as part of natural resources management strategies to balance critical mineral development with conservation and biodiversity values.},\n\tlanguage = {English},\n\turldate = {2023-01-04},\n\tjournal = {Earth Science, Systems and Society},\n\tauthor = {Lawley, Christopher J. M. and Mitchell, Matthew G. E. and Stralberg, Diana and Schuster, Richard and McIntire, Eliot and Bennett, Joseph R.},\n\tyear = {2022},\n\tnote = {1 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n1 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nPublisher: Frontiers},\n\tpages = {10064},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n Electrification of Canada’s energy and transport sectors is essential to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and will require a vast amount of raw materials. A large proportion of these critical raw materials are expected to be sourced from as yet undiscovered mineral deposits, which has the potential to accelerate environmental pressures on natural ecosystems. Herein we overlay new prospectivity model results for a major source of Canada’s battery minerals (i.e., magmatic Ni ± Cu ± Co ± PGE mineral systems) with five ecosystem services (i.e., freshwater resources, carbon, nature-based recreation, species at risk, climate-change refugia) and gaps in the current protected-area network to identify areas of high geological potential with lower ecological risk. New prospectivity models were trained on high-resolution geological and geophysical survey compilations using spatial cross-validation methods. The area under the curve for the receive operating characteristics (ROC) plot and the preferred gradient boosting machines model is 0.972, reducing the search space for more than 90% of deposits in the test set by 89%. Using the inflection point on the ROC plot as a threshold, we demonstrate that 16% of the most prospective model cells partially overlap with the current network of protected and other conserved areas, further reducing the search space for new critical mineral deposits. The vast majority of the remaining high prospectivity cells correspond to ecoregions with less than half of the protected areas required to meet national conservation targets. Poorly protected ecoregions with one or more of the five ecosystem services are interpreted as hotspots with the highest potential for conflicting land-use priorities in the future, including parts of southern Ontario and Québec, western Labrador, and northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Managing hotspots with multiple land-use priorities would necessarily involve partnerships with both Indigenous peoples whose traditional lands are affected, and other impacted communities. We suggest that prospectivity models and other machine learning methods can be used as part of natural resources management strategies to balance critical mineral development with conservation and biodiversity values.\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Boisvenue, C.; Paradis, G.; Eddy, I. M. S.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Chubaty, A. M.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Managing forest carbon and landscape capacities.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Environmental Research Letters, 17(11): 114013. October 2022.\n 2 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] Publisher: IOP Publishing\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Managing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n \n \n 1 download\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{boisvenue_managing_2022,\n\ttitle = {Managing forest carbon and landscape capacities},\n\tvolume = {17},\n\tissn = {1748-9326},\n\turl = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9919},\n\tdoi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac9919},\n\tabstract = {Widespread impacts of a warming planet are fuelling climate change mitigation efforts world-wide. Decision makers are turning to forests, the largest terrestrial primary producer, as a nature-based contribution to mitigation efforts. Resource-based economies, however, have yet to include carbon (C) in their resource planning, slowing the implementation of these important measures for atmospheric greenhouse gas reduction. The realisation of forest mitigation potential depends greatly on our ability to integrate C-sequestration practices in our forest management applications. This requires robust C-estimates, an understanding of the natural potential for a specific landscape to sequester C, the current state of the landscape relative to this potential, and the evaluation of management practices as a tool to sequester forest C in the midst of all the other values forests offer humans. Discrepancies between models used in management decisions and C estimation are the first hurdle impeding the application of forest-based mitigation strategies. Here, we combine forest disturbance and management models with a well-established C model on an open-source simulation platform. We then use the modelling system to produce C estimates of the natural C-holding capacity (potential) and two management scenarios for a study area in BC, Canada. Our simulations provide an essential metric if forests are to be managed for C-sequestration: the natural landscape C-holding capacity. Our simulations also point to a decreasing trend in simulated C on the study area over time and to a bias of the current C-levels compared to the landscape C-holding capacity (477 vs 405.5 MtC). Our explanations for this bias may provide an avenue for improved current C-state estimates. We provide a framework and the information needed for the implementation of nature-based solutions using forests for climate change mitigation. This study is a step towards modelling systems that can unify scientifically based forest management and informed C-management.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {11},\n\turldate = {2022-11-25},\n\tjournal = {Environmental Research Letters},\n\tauthor = {Boisvenue, Céline and Paradis, Gregory and Eddy, Ian M. S. and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Chubaty, Alex M.},\n\tmonth = oct,\n\tyear = {2022},\n\tnote = {2 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nPublisher: IOP Publishing},\n\tpages = {114013},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n Widespread impacts of a warming planet are fuelling climate change mitigation efforts world-wide. Decision makers are turning to forests, the largest terrestrial primary producer, as a nature-based contribution to mitigation efforts. Resource-based economies, however, have yet to include carbon (C) in their resource planning, slowing the implementation of these important measures for atmospheric greenhouse gas reduction. The realisation of forest mitigation potential depends greatly on our ability to integrate C-sequestration practices in our forest management applications. This requires robust C-estimates, an understanding of the natural potential for a specific landscape to sequester C, the current state of the landscape relative to this potential, and the evaluation of management practices as a tool to sequester forest C in the midst of all the other values forests offer humans. Discrepancies between models used in management decisions and C estimation are the first hurdle impeding the application of forest-based mitigation strategies. Here, we combine forest disturbance and management models with a well-established C model on an open-source simulation platform. We then use the modelling system to produce C estimates of the natural C-holding capacity (potential) and two management scenarios for a study area in BC, Canada. Our simulations provide an essential metric if forests are to be managed for C-sequestration: the natural landscape C-holding capacity. Our simulations also point to a decreasing trend in simulated C on the study area over time and to a bias of the current C-levels compared to the landscape C-holding capacity (477 vs 405.5 MtC). Our explanations for this bias may provide an avenue for improved current C-state estimates. We provide a framework and the information needed for the implementation of nature-based solutions using forests for climate change mitigation. This study is a step towards modelling systems that can unify scientifically based forest management and informed C-management.\n

\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2021\n \n \n (6)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Bodner, K.; Firkowski, C. R.; Bennett, J.; Brookson, C.; Dietze, M.; Green, S.; Hughes, J.; Kerr, J.; Kunegel-Lion, M.; Leroux, S.; McIntire, E.; Molnar, P.; Simpkins, C.; Tekwa, E.; Watts, A.; and Fortin, M.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and environmental decision-making.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecosphere, 12(12): e03869. 2021.\n 14 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 6 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{bodner_bridging_2021,\n\ttitle = {Bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and environmental decision-making},\n\tvolume = {12},\n\tdoi = {10.1002/ecs2.3869},\n\tnumber = {12},\n\tjournal = {Ecosphere},\n\tauthor = {Bodner, Korryn and Firkowski, Carina Rauen and Bennett, Joseph and Brookson, Cole and Dietze, Michael and Green, Stephanie and Hughes, Josie and Kerr, Jeremy and Kunegel-Lion, Mélodie and Leroux, Shawn and McIntire, Eliot and Molnar, Peter and Simpkins, Craig and Tekwa, Edward and Watts, Alexander and Fortin, Marie-Josée},\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {14 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n6 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]},\n\tpages = {e03869},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Camarero, J. J.; Gazol, A.; Sánchez-Salguero, R.; Fajardo, A.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Liang, E.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Tree growth and treeline responses to temperature: Different questions and concepts.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Global Change Biology, 27(17): e13–e14. 2021.\n 2 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15728\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Tree$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{camarero_tree_2021,\n\ttitle = {Tree growth and treeline responses to temperature: {Different} questions and concepts},\n\tvolume = {27},\n\tissn = {1365-2486},\n\tshorttitle = {Tree growth and treeline responses to temperature},\n\turl = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15728},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/gcb.15728},\n\tabstract = {Climate warming is expected to enhance tree growth at alpine treelines. A higher growth rate is forecasted as temperatures rise and growth becomes less dependent on the temperature rise. Since radial growth is just one component of treeline dynamics those forecasts do not necessarily apply to treeline elevation or latitude; treelines can shift upward or poleward or remain stable.},\n\tnumber = {17},\n\turldate = {2022-04-27},\n\tjournal = {Global Change Biology},\n\tauthor = {Camarero, J. Julio and Gazol, Antonio and Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl and Fajardo, Alex and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Liang, Eryuan},\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {2 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n\\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15728},\n\tpages = {e13--e14},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Camarero, J. J.; Gazol, A.; Sánchez-Salguero, R.; Fajardo, A.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Gutiérrez, E.; Batllori, E.; Boudreau, S.; Carrer, M.; Diez, J.; Dufour-Tremblay, G.; Gaire, N. P.; Hofgaard, A.; Jomelli, V.; Kirdyanov, A. V.; Lévesque, E.; Liang, E.; Linares, J. C.; Mathisen, I. E.; Moiseev, P. A.; Sangüesa-Barreda, G.; Shrestha, K. B.; Toivonen, J. M.; Tutubalina, O. V.; and Wilmking, M.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Global fading of the temperature–growth coupling at alpine and polar treelines.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Global Change Biology, 27(9): 1879–1889. 2021.\n 46 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 31 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15530\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Global$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{camarero_global_2021,\n\ttitle = {Global fading of the temperature–growth coupling at alpine and polar treelines},\n\tvolume = {27},\n\tissn = {1365-2486},\n\turl = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15530},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/gcb.15530},\n\tabstract = {Climate warming is expected to positively alter upward and poleward treelines which are controlled by low temperature and a short growing season. Despite the importance of treelines as a bioassay of climate change, a global field assessment and posterior forecasting of tree growth at annual scales is lacking. Using annually resolved tree-ring data located across Eurasia and the Americas, we quantified and modeled the relationship between temperature and radial growth at treeline during the 20th century. We then tested whether this temperature–growth association will remain stable during the 21st century using a forward model under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). During the 20th century, growth enhancements were common in most sites, and temperature and growth showed positive trends. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and growth trends was contingent on tree age suggesting biogeographic patterns in treeline growth are contingent on local factors besides climate warming. Simulations forecast temperature–growth decoupling during the 21st century. The growing season at treeline is projected to lengthen and growth rates would increase and become less dependent on temperature rise. These forecasts illustrate how growth may decouple from climate warming in cold regions and near the margins of tree existence. Such projected temperature–growth decoupling could impact ecosystem processes in mountain and polar biomes, with feedbacks on climate warming.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {9},\n\turldate = {2021-11-15},\n\tjournal = {Global Change Biology},\n\tauthor = {Camarero, Jesús Julio and Gazol, Antonio and Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl and Fajardo, Alex and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Gutiérrez, Emilia and Batllori, Enric and Boudreau, Stéphane and Carrer, Marco and Diez, Jeff and Dufour-Tremblay, Geneviève and Gaire, Narayan P. and Hofgaard, Annika and Jomelli, Vincent and Kirdyanov, Alexander V. and Lévesque, Esther and Liang, Eryuan and Linares, Juan Carlos and Mathisen, Ingrid E. and Moiseev, Pavel A. and Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel and Shrestha, Krishna B. and Toivonen, Johanna M. and Tutubalina, Olga V. and Wilmking, Martin},\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {46 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n31 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n\\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15530},\n\tkeywords = {climate warming, forest limit, growth model, mountain ecosystems, tree rings},\n\tpages = {1879--1889},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Clark , James; Andrus, Robert; Aubry-Kientz, Melaine; Bergeron, Y.; Bogdziewicz, M.; Bragg, Don; Brockway, Dale; Cleavitt, Natalie; Cohen, Susan; Courbaud, Benoit; Daley, Robert; Das, Adrian; Dietze, Michael; Fahey, Timothy; Fer, Istem; Franklin, Jerry; Gehring, Catherine; Gilbert, Gregory; Greenberg, Catheryn; Guo, Qinfeng; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Ibañez, Ines; Johnstone, Jill; Kilner, Christopher; Knops, Johannes; Koenig, Walter; Kunstler, Georges; LaMontagne, Jalene; Legg, Kristin; Luongo, Jordan; Lutz, James; Macias, Diana; McIntire, E.; Messaoud, Yassine; Moore, Christopher; Moran, Emily; Myers, Jonathan; Myers, Orrin; Nuñez, Chase; Parmenter, Robert; Pearse, Ian; Pearson, Scott; Poulton Kamakura, Renata; Ready, Ethan; Redmond, Miranda; Reid, Chantal; Rodman, Kyle; Scher, Catherine; Schlesinger, William H; Schwantes, Amanda; Shanahan, Erin; Sharma, Shubhi; Steele, Michael; Stephenson, Nathan; Sutton, Samantha; Swenson, Jennifer; Swift, Margaret; Veblen, Thomas; Whipple, Amy; Whitham, Thomas; Wion, Andreas; Zhu, Kai; and Zlotin, Roman\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Nature Communications, 12: 1242. 2021.\n 37 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{clark__james_continent-wide_2021,\n\ttitle = {Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects},\n\tvolume = {12},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3},\n\tjournal = {Nature Communications},\n\tauthor = {{Clark , James} and {Andrus, Robert} and {Aubry-Kientz, Melaine} and Bergeron, Yves and Bogdziewicz, Michal and {Bragg, Don} and {Brockway, Dale} and {Cleavitt, Natalie} and {Cohen, Susan} and {Courbaud, Benoit} and {Daley, Robert} and {Das, Adrian} and {Dietze, Michael} and {Fahey, Timothy} and {Fer, Istem} and {Franklin, Jerry} and {Gehring, Catherine} and {Gilbert, Gregory} and {Greenberg, Catheryn} and {Guo, Qinfeng} and {HilleRisLambers, Janneke} and {Ibañez, Ines} and {Johnstone, Jill} and {Kilner, Christopher} and {Knops, Johannes} and {Koenig, Walter} and {Kunstler, Georges} and {LaMontagne, Jalene} and {Legg, Kristin} and {Luongo, Jordan} and {Lutz, James} and {Macias, Diana} and McIntire, Eliot and {Messaoud, Yassine} and {Moore, Christopher} and {Moran, Emily} and {Myers, Jonathan} and {Myers, Orrin} and {Nuñez, Chase} and {Parmenter, Robert} and {Pearse, Ian} and {Pearson, Scott} and {Poulton Kamakura, Renata} and {Ready, Ethan} and {Redmond, Miranda} and {Reid, Chantal} and {Rodman, Kyle} and {Scher, Catherine} and {Schlesinger, William H} and {Schwantes, Amanda} and {Shanahan, Erin} and {Sharma, Shubhi} and {Steele, Michael} and {Stephenson, Nathan} and {Sutton, Samantha} and {Swenson, Jennifer} and {Swift, Margaret} and {Veblen, Thomas} and {Whipple, Amy} and {Whitham, Thomas} and {Wion, Andreas} and {Zhu, Kai} and {Zlotin, Roman}},\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {37 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]},\n\tpages = {1242},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Micheletti, T.; Stewart, F. E. C.; Cumming, S. G.; Haché, S.; Stralberg, D.; Tremblay, J. A.; Barros, C.; Eddy, I. M. S.; Chubaty, A. M.; Leblond, M.; Pankratz, R. F.; Mahon, C. L.; Van Wilgenburg, S. L.; Bayne, E. M.; Schmiegelow, F.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 9: 654. 2021.\n 16 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 10 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Assessing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{micheletti_assessing_2021,\n\ttitle = {Assessing {Pathways} of {Climate} {Change} {Effects} in {SpaDES}: {An} {Application} to {Boreal} {Landbirds} of {Northwest} {Territories} {Canada}},\n\tvolume = {9},\n\tissn = {2296-701X},\n\tshorttitle = {Assessing {Pathways} of {Climate} {Change} {Effects} in {SpaDES}},\n\turl = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fevo.2021.679673},\n\tdoi = {10.3389/fevo.2021.679673},\n\tabstract = {Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through changing fire regimes and/or vegetation dynamics, or directly through changes in climatic suitability may allow land managers to address negative trajectories via forest management. We used SpaDES, a novel toolkit built in R that facilitates the implementation of simulation models from different areas of knowledge to develop a simulation experiment for a study area comprising 50 million ha in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our factorial experiment was designed to contrast climate effects pathways on 64 landbird species using climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive models for tree growth and mortality, wildfire, and landbirds. Climate-change effects were predicted to increase suitable habitat for 73\\% of species, resulting in average net gain of 7.49 million ha across species. We observed higher species turnover in the northeastern, south-central (species loss), and western regions (species gain). Importantly, we found that most of the predicted differences in net area of occupancy across models were attributed to direct climate effects rather than simulated vegetation change, despite a similar relative importance of vegetation and climate variables in landbird models. Even with close to a doubling of annual area burned by 2100, and a 600 kg/ha increase in aboveground tree biomass predicted in this region, differences in landbird net occupancy across models attributed to climate-driven forest growth were very small, likely resulting from differences in the pace of vegetation and climate changes, or vegetation lags. The effect of vegetation lags (i.e., differences from climatic equilibrium) varied across species, resulting in a wide range of changes in landbird distribution, and consequently predicted occupancy, due to climate effects. These findings suggest that hybrid approaches using statistical models and landscape simulation tools could improve wildlife forecasts when future uncoupling of vegetation and climate is anticipated. This study lays some of the methodological groundwork for ecological adaptive management using the new platform SpaDES, which allows for iterative forecasting, mixing of modeling paradigms, and tightening connections between data, parameterization, and simulation.},\n\turldate = {2021-11-15},\n\tjournal = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution},\n\tauthor = {Micheletti, Tatiane and Stewart, Frances E. C. and Cumming, Steven G. and Haché, Samuel and Stralberg, Diana and Tremblay, Junior A. and Barros, Ceres and Eddy, Ian M. S. and Chubaty, Alex M. and Leblond, Mathieu and Pankratz, Rhiannon F. and Mahon, C. L. and Van Wilgenburg, Steven L. and Bayne, Erin M. and Schmiegelow, Fiona and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {16 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n10 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]},\n\tpages = {654},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through changing fire regimes and/or vegetation dynamics, or directly through changes in climatic suitability may allow land managers to address negative trajectories via forest management. We used SpaDES, a novel toolkit built in R that facilitates the implementation of simulation models from different areas of knowledge to develop a simulation experiment for a study area comprising 50 million ha in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our factorial experiment was designed to contrast climate effects pathways on 64 landbird species using climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive models for tree growth and mortality, wildfire, and landbirds. Climate-change effects were predicted to increase suitable habitat for 73% of species, resulting in average net gain of 7.49 million ha across species. We observed higher species turnover in the northeastern, south-central (species loss), and western regions (species gain). Importantly, we found that most of the predicted differences in net area of occupancy across models were attributed to direct climate effects rather than simulated vegetation change, despite a similar relative importance of vegetation and climate variables in landbird models. Even with close to a doubling of annual area burned by 2100, and a 600 kg/ha increase in aboveground tree biomass predicted in this region, differences in landbird net occupancy across models attributed to climate-driven forest growth were very small, likely resulting from differences in the pace of vegetation and climate changes, or vegetation lags. The effect of vegetation lags (i.e., differences from climatic equilibrium) varied across species, resulting in a wide range of changes in landbird distribution, and consequently predicted occupancy, due to climate effects. These findings suggest that hybrid approaches using statistical models and landscape simulation tools could improve wildlife forecasts when future uncoupling of vegetation and climate is anticipated. This study lays some of the methodological groundwork for ecological adaptive management using the new platform SpaDES, which allows for iterative forecasting, mixing of modeling paradigms, and tightening connections between data, parameterization, and simulation.\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Greuel, R. J.; Degré-Timmons, G. É.; Baltzer, J. L.; Johnstone, J. F.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Day, N. J.; Hart, S. J.; McLoughlin, P. D.; Schmiegelow, F. K. A.; Turetsky, M. R.; Truchon-Savard, A.; van Telgen, M. D.; and Cumming, S. G.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Predicting patterns of terrestrial lichen biomass recovery following boreal wildfires.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecosphere, 12(4): e03481. 2021.\n 7 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 6 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecs2.3481\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Predicting$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{greuel_predicting_2021,\n\ttitle = {Predicting patterns of terrestrial lichen biomass recovery following boreal wildfires},\n\tvolume = {12},\n\tissn = {2150-8925},\n\turl = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ecs2.3481},\n\tdoi = {10.1002/ecs2.3481},\n\tabstract = {Increased fire activity due to climate change may impact the successional dynamics of boreal forests, with important consequences for caribou habitat. Early successional forests have been shown to support lower quantities of caribou forage lichens, but geographic variation in, and controls on, the rates of lichen recovery has been largely unexplored. In this study, we sampled across a broad region in northwestern Canada to compare lichen biomass accumulation in ecoprovinces, including the Saskatchewan Boreal Shield, the Northwest Territories Taiga Shield, and Northwest Territories Taiga Plains, divided into North and South. We focused on the most valuable Cladonia species for boreal and barren-ground caribou: Cladonia mitis and C. arbuscula, C. rangiferina and C. stygia, and C. stellaris and C. uncialis. We developed new allometric equations to estimate lichen biomass from field measurements of lichen cover and height; allometries were consistent among ecoprovinces, suggesting generalizability. We then used estimates of lichen biomass to quantify patterns of lichen recovery in different stand types, ecoprovinces, and with time following stand-replacing fire. We used a hurdle model to account both for the heterogeneous nature of lichen presence (zero inflation) and for the range of abundance in stands where lichen was present. The first component of the hurdle model, a generalized linear model, identified stand age, stand type, and ecoprovince as significant predictors of lichen presence. With a logistic growth model, a measure of lichen recovery (time to 50\\% asymptotic value) varied from 28 to 73 yr, dependent on stand type and ecoprovince. The combined predictions of the hurdle model suggest the most rapid recovery of lichen biomass across our study region occurred in jack pine in the Boreal Shield (30 yr), while stands located in the Taiga Plains (North and South) required a longer recovery period (approximately 75 yr). These results provide a basis for estimating future caribou habitat that encompasses some of the large variation in fire effects on lichen abundance and vegetation types across the range of boreal and barren-ground caribou in North America.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {4},\n\turldate = {2021-10-29},\n\tjournal = {Ecosphere},\n\tauthor = {Greuel, Ruth J. and Degré-Timmons, Geneviève É. and Baltzer, Jennifer L. and Johnstone, Jill F. and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Day, Nicola J. and Hart, Sarah J. and McLoughlin, Philip D. and Schmiegelow, Fiona K. A. and Turetsky, Merritt R. and Truchon-Savard, Alexandre and van Telgen, Mario D. and Cumming, Steven G.},\n\tyear = {2021},\n\tnote = {7 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n6 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n\\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecs2.3481},\n\tkeywords = {Caribou forage, Cladonia, Rangifer, chronosequence, hurdle model, natural disturbance, nonlinear mixed-effects models, wildfire, zero-inflated distribution},\n\tpages = {e03481},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n Increased fire activity due to climate change may impact the successional dynamics of boreal forests, with important consequences for caribou habitat. Early successional forests have been shown to support lower quantities of caribou forage lichens, but geographic variation in, and controls on, the rates of lichen recovery has been largely unexplored. In this study, we sampled across a broad region in northwestern Canada to compare lichen biomass accumulation in ecoprovinces, including the Saskatchewan Boreal Shield, the Northwest Territories Taiga Shield, and Northwest Territories Taiga Plains, divided into North and South. We focused on the most valuable Cladonia species for boreal and barren-ground caribou: Cladonia mitis and C. arbuscula, C. rangiferina and C. stygia, and C. stellaris and C. uncialis. We developed new allometric equations to estimate lichen biomass from field measurements of lichen cover and height; allometries were consistent among ecoprovinces, suggesting generalizability. We then used estimates of lichen biomass to quantify patterns of lichen recovery in different stand types, ecoprovinces, and with time following stand-replacing fire. We used a hurdle model to account both for the heterogeneous nature of lichen presence (zero inflation) and for the range of abundance in stands where lichen was present. The first component of the hurdle model, a generalized linear model, identified stand age, stand type, and ecoprovince as significant predictors of lichen presence. With a logistic growth model, a measure of lichen recovery (time to 50% asymptotic value) varied from 28 to 73 yr, dependent on stand type and ecoprovince. The combined predictions of the hurdle model suggest the most rapid recovery of lichen biomass across our study region occurred in jack pine in the Boreal Shield (30 yr), while stands located in the Taiga Plains (North and South) required a longer recovery period (approximately 75 yr). These results provide a basis for estimating future caribou habitat that encompasses some of the large variation in fire effects on lichen abundance and vegetation types across the range of boreal and barren-ground caribou in North America.\n

\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2020\n \n \n (6)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Bauduin, S.; Cumming, S. G; St-Laurent, M.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Integrating functional connectivity in designing networks of protected areas under climate change: A caribou case-study.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n PLOS ONE, 15(9): e0238821. 2020.\n 6 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 00000\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{bauduin_integrating_2020,\n\ttitle = {Integrating functional connectivity in designing networks of protected areas under climate change: {A} caribou case-study},\n\tvolume = {15},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238821},\n\tabstract = {Context: Habitat change and climate change are recognized as two main drivers of the current biodiversity decline. Protected areas attempt to secure the landscape from additional land modifications and likely help species cope with climate change impacts. To maximize effectiveness, protected areas need to cover a representative sample of the regional biodiversity 5 and should be functionally connected so as to facilitate individual movements.\nObjectives: We developed a methodology to define effective protected areas to implement in a regional network using ecological representativeness and functional connectivity as criteria. We illustrated this methodology in the Gaspésie region of Québec, Canada.\nMethods: We simulated movements for the endangered Atlantic-Gaspésie caribou population 10 (Rangifer tarandus caribou), using an individual-based model, to determine functional connectivity based on this large mammal. We created multiple protected areas network scenarios and evaluated their ecological representativeness and functional connectivity for the current and future conditions. We selected a subset of the most effective network scenarios and extracted the protected areas included in them. 15\nResults: There was a trade-off between ecological representativeness and functional connectivity for the created networks. Only a few protected areas among those available were repeatedly chosen in the most effective networks.\nConclusions: Repeatedly chosen protected areas represented suitable areas to implement in an optimized protected areas network. These areas ensured that a representative sample of the 20 regional biodiversity was covered by the network, as well as maximizing the movement over time between and inside the protected areas for the focal population.},\n\tnumber = {9},\n\tjournal = {PLOS ONE},\n\tauthor = {Bauduin, Sarah and Cumming, Steve G and St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2020},\n\tnote = {6 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n00000},\n\tpages = {e0238821},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Clason, A.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Burton, P. J.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Latitudinal limit not a cold limit: Cold temperatures do not constrain an endangered tree species at its northern edge.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Biogeography, 47(6): 1398–1412. 2020.\n 5 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 4 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000000\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{clason_latitudinal_2020,\n\ttitle = {Latitudinal limit not a cold limit: {Cold} temperatures do not constrain an endangered tree species at its northern edge},\n\tvolume = {47},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/jbi.13822},\n\tnumber = {6},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Biogeography},\n\tauthor = {Clason, Alana and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Burton, Philip J.},\n\tyear = {2020},\n\tnote = {5 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n4 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000000},\n\tpages = {1398--1412},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Luo, Y.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Boisvenue, C.; Nikiema, P.; and Chen, H.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Climatic change only stimulated growth for trees under weak competition in central boreal forests.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Ecology, 108(1): 1–11. 2020.\n 29 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] ZSCC: 0000002\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{luo_climatic_2020,\n\ttitle = {Climatic change only stimulated growth for trees under weak competition in central boreal forests},\n\tvolume = {108},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13228},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Luo, Yong and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Boisvenue, Celine and Nikiema, Paul and Chen, H.Y.H.},\n\tyear = {2020},\n\tnote = {29 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\nZSCC: 0000002},\n\tpages = {1--11},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Marchal, J.; Cumming, S. G; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Turning down the heat: vegetation feedbacks limit fire regime responses to global warming.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecosystems, 23(1): 1–13. 2020.\n 20 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 1 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{marchal_turning_2020,\n\ttitle = {Turning down the heat: vegetation feedbacks limit fire regime responses to global warming},\n\tvolume = {23},\n\tdoi = {10.1007/s10021-019-00398-2},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {Ecosystems},\n\tauthor = {Marchal, Jean and Cumming, Steve G and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2020},\n\tnote = {20 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n1 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]},\n\tpages = {1--13},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Stewart, F. E. C.; Nowak, J. J.; Micheletti, T.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Schmiegelow, F. K. A.; and Cumming, S. G.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Boreal Caribou Can Coexist with Natural but Not Industrial Disturbances.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n The Journal of Wildlife Management,jwmg.21937. August 2020.\n 21 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 20 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000000\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Boreal$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{stewart_boreal_2020,\n\ttitle = {Boreal {Caribou} {Can} {Coexist} with {Natural} but {Not} {Industrial} {Disturbances}},\n\tissn = {0022-541X, 1937-2817},\n\turl = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jwmg.21937},\n\tdoi = {10.1002/jwmg.21937},\n\tabstract = {For species at risk, it is important that demographic models be consistent with our most recent knowledge because alternate model versions can have diﬀering predictions for wildlife and natural resource management. To establish and maintain this consistency, we can compare predicted model values to current or past observations and demographic knowledge. When novel predictor information becomes available, testing for consistency between modeled and observed values ensures the best models are used for robust, evidence‐based, wildlife management. We combine novel information on the extent of historical disturbance regimes (industrial and ﬁre) to an existing demographic model and predict historical and projected demographics of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Exploring 6 simulation experiments across 5 populations in Alberta, Canada, we identify the relative importance of industrial disturbance, ﬁre, and population density to observed population size and growth rate. We conﬁrm the onset of signiﬁcant declines across all 5 populations began approximately 30 years ago, demonstrate these declines have been consistent, and conclude they are more likely due to industrial disturbance from the oil and gas sector within contemporary population ranges than historical ﬁre regimes. These ﬁndings reinforce recent research on the cause of woodland caribou declines. Testing for consistency between observations and models prescribed for species recovery is paramount for assessing the cause of declines, projecting population trends, and reﬁning recovery strategies for eﬀective wildlife management. We provide a novel simulation method for conducting these tests. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\turldate = {2020-08-31},\n\tjournal = {The Journal of Wildlife Management},\n\tauthor = {Stewart, Frances E. C. and Nowak, J. Joshua and Micheletti, Tatiane and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Schmiegelow, Fiona K. A. and Cumming, Steven G.},\n\tmonth = aug,\n\tyear = {2020},\n\tnote = {21 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n20 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000000},\n\tpages = {jwmg.21937},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Winder, R.; Stewart, F.; Nebel, S.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Dyk, A.; and Omendja, K.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Cumulative Effects and Boreal Woodland Caribou: How Bow-tie Risk Analysis Addresses a Critical Issue in Canada’s Forested Landscapes.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Online. 2020.\n 13 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 13 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{winder_cumulative_2020,\n\ttitle = {Cumulative {Effects} and {Boreal} {Woodland} {Caribou}: {How} {Bow}-tie {Risk} {Analysis} {Addresses} a {Critical} {Issue} in {Canada}’s {Forested} {Landscapes}},\n\tvolume = {Online},\n\tdoi = {10.3389/fevo.2020.00001},\n\tjournal = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution},\n\tauthor = {Winder, Richard and Stewart, Frances and Nebel, Silke and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Dyk, Andrew and Omendja, Kangakola},\n\tyear = {2020},\n\tnote = {13 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n13 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: NoCitationData[s0]},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2019\n \n \n (4)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Luo, Y.; Chen, H. Y.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Andison, D. W.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Divergent temporal trends of net biomass change in western Canadian boreal forests.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Ecology. 2019.\n 12 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 13 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000005\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{luo_divergent_2019,\n\ttitle = {Divergent temporal trends of net biomass change in western {Canadian} boreal forests},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13033},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Luo, Yong and Chen, Han YH and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Andison, David W.},\n\tyear = {2019},\n\tnote = {12 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n13 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000005},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Bauduin, S.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Chubaty, A. M.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n NetLogoR: a package to build and run spatially explicit agent-based models in R.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecography, 42(11): 1841–1849. 2019.\n 10 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 11 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000003\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"NetLogoR:$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{bauduin_netlogor_2019,\n\ttitle = {{NetLogoR}: a package to build and run spatially explicit agent-based models in {R}},\n\tvolume = {42},\n\tcopyright = {© 2019 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Ecography published by John Wiley \\& Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Society Oikos.},\n\tissn = {1600-0587},\n\tshorttitle = {{NetLogoR}},\n\turl = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecog.04516},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/ecog.04516},\n\tabstract = {NetLogoR is an R package to build and run spatially explicit agent-based models (SE-ABMs) using the R language. SE-ABMs are models that simulate the fate of entities at the individual level within a spatial context and where patterns emerge at the population level. NetLogoR follows the same framework as the NetLogo software (Wilensky 1999). Rather than a call function to use the NetLogo software, NetLogoR is a translation into the R language of the structure and functions of NetLogo. Models built with NetLogoR are written in R language and are run on the R platform; no other software or language has to be involved. NetLogoR provides new R classes to define model agent objects and functions to implement spatially explicit agent-based models in the R environment. Users of this package benefit from the fast and easy coding provided by the highly developed NetLogo framework, coupled with the versatility, power and massive resources of the R language.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {11},\n\turldate = {2020-04-23},\n\tjournal = {Ecography},\n\tauthor = {Bauduin, Sarah and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Chubaty, Alex M.},\n\tyear = {2019},\n\tnote = {10 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n11 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000003},\n\tkeywords = {NetLogo, R package, agent-based model, individual-based model},\n\tpages = {1841--1849},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Bogdziewicz, M.; Żywiec, M.; Espelta, J. M.; Fernandez-Martinez, M.; Calama, R.; Ledwoń, M.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Crone, E. E.; and Martinez, M. F.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Environmental veto synchronizes mast seeding in four contrasting tree species.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n American Naturalist, 194(2). 2019.\n 22 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{bogdziewicz_environmental_2019,\n\ttitle = {Environmental veto synchronizes mast seeding in four contrasting tree species},\n\tvolume = {194},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1086/704111},\n\tnumber = {2},\n\tjournal = {American Naturalist},\n\tauthor = {Bogdziewicz, Michał and Żywiec, Magdalena and Espelta, Josep M. and Fernandez-Martinez, Marcos and Calama, Rafael and Ledwoń, Mateusz and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Crone, Elizabeth E. and Martinez, Marcos Fernández},\n\tyear = {2019},\n\tnote = {22 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Fajardo, A.; McIntire, E. J.; and Olson, M. E.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n When Short Stature Is an Asset in Trees.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 34(3): 193–199. 2019.\n 48 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 45 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000013\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"When$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{fajardo_when_2019,\n\ttitle = {When {Short} {Stature} {Is} an {Asset} in {Trees}},\n\tvolume = {34},\n\tissn = {01695347},\n\turl = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169534718302684},\n\tdoi = {10.1016/j.tree.2018.10.011},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {3},\n\turldate = {2018-11-15},\n\tjournal = {Trends in Ecology \\& Evolution},\n\tauthor = {Fajardo, Alex and McIntire, Eliot J.B. and Olson, Mark E.},\n\tyear = {2019},\n\tnote = {48 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n45 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000013},\n\tpages = {193--199},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2018\n \n \n (1)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Bauduin, S.; McIntire, E. J. B.; St-Laurent, M.; and Cumming, S. G.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Compensatory conservation measures for an endangered caribou population under climate change.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Scientific Reports. 2018.\n 12 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000002\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Compensatory$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{bauduin_compensatory_2018,\n\ttitle = {Compensatory conservation measures for an endangered caribou population under climate change},\n\turl = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34822-9},\n\tdoi = {10.1038/s41598-018-34822-9},\n\tjournal = {Scientific Reports},\n\tauthor = {Bauduin, Sarah and McIntire, E. J. B. and St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues and Cumming, S. G.},\n\tyear = {2018},\n\tnote = {12 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000002},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2017\n \n \n (2)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Marchal, J.; Cumming, S. G.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Exploiting Poisson additivity to predict fire frequency from maps of fire weather and land cover in boreal forests of Québec, Canada.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecography, 40(1): 200–209. 2017.\n 23 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{marchal_exploiting_2017,\n\ttitle = {Exploiting {Poisson} additivity to predict fire frequency from maps of fire weather and land cover in boreal forests of {Québec}, {Canada}},\n\tvolume = {40},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01849},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {Ecography},\n\tauthor = {Marchal, Jean and Cumming, Steve G. and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2017},\n\tnote = {23 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]},\n\tpages = {200--209},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Marchal, J.; Cumming, S. G; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: implications for fire risk management.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n PLoS ONE, 12(9): e0179294. 2017.\n 17 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 17 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000012\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Land$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{marchal_land_2017,\n\ttitle = {Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in {Southern} {Québec} forests: implications for fire risk management},\n\tvolume = {12},\n\turl = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0179294},\n\tdoi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0179294},\n\tnumber = {9},\n\tjournal = {PLoS ONE},\n\tauthor = {Marchal, Jean and Cumming, Steve G and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2017},\n\tnote = {17 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n17 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000012},\n\tpages = {e0179294},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2016\n \n \n (3)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Bauduin, S.; McIntire, E. J. B.; St-Laurent, M.; and Cumming, S. G.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Overcoming challenges of sparse telemetry data to estimate caribou movement.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecological Modelling, 335: 24–34. 2016.\n 14 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{bauduin_overcoming_2016,\n\ttitle = {Overcoming challenges of sparse telemetry data to estimate caribou movement},\n\tvolume = {335},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.05.004},\n\tjournal = {Ecological Modelling},\n\tauthor = {Bauduin, Sarah and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues and Cumming, Steven G.},\n\tyear = {2016},\n\tnote = {14 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]},\n\tpages = {24--34},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; Piper, F. I.; and Fajardo, A.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Wind exposure and light exposure, more than elevation-related temperature, limit tree line seedling abundance on three continents.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Ecology, 104(5): 1379–1390. 2016.\n 44 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Wind$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_wind_2016,\n\ttitle = {Wind exposure and light exposure, more than elevation-related temperature, limit tree line seedling abundance on three continents},\n\tvolume = {104},\n\turl = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12599/full},\n\tdoi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12599},\n\tnumber = {5},\n\turldate = {2017-08-08},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Ecology},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Piper, Frida I. and Fajardo, Alex},\n\tyear = {2016},\n\tnote = {44 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]},\n\tpages = {1379--1390},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Renard, S. M.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Fajardo, A.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Winter conditions - not summer temperature - influence establishment of seedlings at white spruce alpine treeline in Eastern Quebec.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Vegetation Science, 27: 29–39. 2016.\n 58 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 58 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000039\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Winter$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{renard_winter_2016,\n\ttitle = {Winter conditions - not summer temperature - influence establishment of seedlings at white spruce alpine treeline in {Eastern} {Quebec}},\n\tvolume = {27},\n\tissn = {11009233},\n\turl = {https://www.dropbox.com/s/a2t1pjxd9wrsjlo/Renard%20et%20al.%20-%202016%20-%20Winter%20conditions%20-%20not%20summer%20temperature%20-%20influ.pdf?dl=1},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/jvs.12347},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Vegetation Science},\n\tauthor = {Renard, Sébastien M. and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Fajardo, Alex},\n\tyear = {2016},\n\tnote = {58 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n58 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000039},\n\tpages = {29--39},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2015\n \n \n (3)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Beguin, J.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Raulier, F.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Salvage logging following fires can minimize boreal caribou habitat loss while maintaining forest quotas: An example of compensatory cumulative effects.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Environmental Management, 163: 234–245. 2015.\n 4 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 4 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000005\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Salvage$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{beguin_salvage_2015,\n\ttitle = {Salvage logging following fires can minimize boreal caribou habitat loss while maintaining forest quotas: {An} example of compensatory cumulative effects},\n\tvolume = {163},\n\tissn = {03014797},\n\turl = {https://www.dropbox.com/s/na5yppzmeoikzvc/Beguin%20et%20al.%20-%202015%20-%20Salvage%20logging%20following%20fires%20can%20minimize%20borea.pdf?dl=1},\n\tdoi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.08.009},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Environmental Management},\n\tauthor = {Beguin, Julien and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Raulier, Frédéric},\n\tyear = {2015},\n\tnote = {4 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n4 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000005},\n\tpages = {234--245},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Roy, C.; Cumming, S. G.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecology and Evolution, 5(10): 1992–2004. 2015.\n 11 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 8 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000003\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Spatial$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{roy_spatial_2015,\n\ttitle = {Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for {American} black duck},\n\tvolume = {5},\n\tissn = {20457758},\n\turl = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.1484/epdf},\n\tdoi = {10.1002/ece3.1484},\n\tabstract = {Assessing spatial variation in waterfowl harvest probabilities from banding data is challenging because reporting and recovery probabilities have distinct spatial patterns that covary temporally with harvesting regulations, hunter effort, and reporting methods. We analyzed direct band recovery data from American black ducks banded on the Canadian breeding grounds from 1970 through 2010. Data were registered to a 1-degree grid and analyzed using hierarchical logistic regression models with spatially correlated errors to estimate the annual probabilities of band recovery and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada. Probability of harvest was estimated from these values, in combination with independent estimates of reporting probabilities in Canada and the USA. Model covariates included estimates of hunting effort and factors for harvest regulation and band reporting methods. Both the band recovery processes and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada had significant spatial structure. Recovery probabilities were highest in southern Ontario, along the Saint Lawrence River in Quebec, and in Nova Scotia. Black ducks breeding in Nova Scotia and southern Quebec were harvested predominantly in Canada. Recovery probabilities for juveniles were correlated with hunter effort, while the adult recoveries were weakly correlated with the implementation of stricter harvest regulations in the early 1980s. Mean harvest probability decreased in the northern portion of the survey area but remained stable or even increased in the south. Harvest probabilities for juveniles in 2010 exceeded 20\\% in southern Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Our results demonstrate fine-scale variation in harvest probabilities for black duck on the Canadian breeding ground. In particular, harvest probabilities should be closely monitored along the Saint Lawrence River system and in the Atlantic provinces to avoid overexploitation.},\n\tnumber = {10},\n\tjournal = {Ecology and Evolution},\n\tauthor = {Roy, Christian and Cumming, Steven G. and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2015},\n\tnote = {11 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n8 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000003},\n\tkeywords = {Bands recoveries, harvest management, hierarchical logistic regression, hunting effort, spatial prediction, waterfowl management},\n\tpages = {1992--2004},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Roy, C.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Cumming, S. G.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Assessing the spatial variability of density dependence in waterfowl populations.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecography, 39(10): 942–953. 2015.\n 8 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] ZSCC: 0000004\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Assessing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{roy_assessing_2015,\n\ttitle = {Assessing the spatial variability of density dependence in waterfowl populations},\n\tvolume = {39},\n\turl = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecog.01534/full},\n\tdoi = {DOI: 10.1111/ecog.01534},\n\tnumber = {10},\n\tjournal = {Ecography},\n\tauthor = {Roy, Christian and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Cumming, Steven G.},\n\tyear = {2015},\n\tnote = {8 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\nZSCC: 0000004},\n\tpages = {942--953},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2014\n \n \n (2)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Being a facilitator can be costly: teasing apart reciprocal effects.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n New Phytologist, 202(1): 4–6. 2014.\n 11 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 11 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000008\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Being$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_being_2014,\n\ttitle = {Being a facilitator can be costly: teasing apart reciprocal effects},\n\tvolume = {202},\n\tissn = {0028646X},\n\tshorttitle = {Being a facilitator can be costly},\n\turl = {https://www.dropbox.com/s/bolhrmk9d2kbfz2/McIntire%20-%202014%20-%20Being%20a%20facilitator%20can%20be%20costly%20teasing%20apart%20r.pdf?dl=1},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/nph.12740},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {New Phytologist},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2014},\n\tnote = {11 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n11 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000008},\n\tkeywords = {Competition, Facilitation, community interactions, feedback effects, reciprocal relationships, stress gradient hypothesis},\n\tpages = {4--6},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; and Fajardo, A.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Facilitation as a ubiquitous driver of biodiversity.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n New Phytologist, 201(2): 403–416. 2014.\n 262 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 243 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2022-04-25] ZSCC: 0000214\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Facilitation$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_facilitation_2014,\n\ttitle = {Facilitation as a ubiquitous driver of biodiversity},\n\tvolume = {201},\n\tcopyright = {Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust},\n\tissn = {1469-8137},\n\turl = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nph.12478/abstract},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/nph.12478},\n\tabstract = {403\n\n\nI.\n\n403\n\n\nII.\n\n405\n\n\nIII.\n\n410\n\n\nIV.\n\n411\n\n\nV.\n\n412\n\n\nVI.\n\n412\n\n\nVII.\n\n413\n\n\nVIII.\n\n413\n\n\n\n\n413\n\n\n\nReferences\n414\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSummary\n\nModels describing the biotic drivers that create and maintain biological diversity within trophic levels have focused primarily on negative interactions (i.e. competition), leaving marginal room for positive interactions (i.e. facilitation). We show facilitation to be a ubiquitous driver of biodiversity by first noting that all species use resources and thus change the local biotic or abiotic conditions, altering the available multidimensional niches. This can cause a shift in local species composition, which can cause an increase in beta, and sometimes alpha, diversity. We show that these increases are ubiquitous across ecosystems. These positive effects on diversity occur via a broad host of disparate direct and indirect mechanisms. We identify and unify several of these facilitative mechanisms and discuss why it has been easy to underappreciate the importance of facilitation. We show that net positive effects have a long history of being considered ecologically or evolutionarily unstable, and we present recent evidence of its potential stability. Facilitation goes well beyond the common case of stress amelioration and it probably gains importance as community complexity increases. While biodiversity is, in part, created by species exploiting many niches, many niches are available to exploit only because species create them.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {2},\n\turldate = {2014-07-21},\n\tjournal = {New Phytologist},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Fajardo, Alex},\n\tyear = {2014},\n\tnote = {262 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n243 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2022-04-25]\nZSCC: 0000214},\n\tkeywords = {Biodiversity, Coexistence, facilitation, intransitive competition, plant functional traits, positive interactions, resource sharing, stress gradient hypothesis (SGH)},\n\tpages = {403--416},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2013\n \n \n (6)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Brodie, J.; Johnson, H.; Mitchell, M.; Zager, P.; Proffitt, K.; Hebblewhite, M.; Kauffman, M.; Johnson, B.; Bissonette, J.; Bishop, C.; Gude, J.; Herbert, J.; Hersey, K.; Hurley, M.; Lukacs, P. M.; McCorquodale, S.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Nowak, J.; Sawyer, H.; Smith, D.; and White, P.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Applied Ecology, 50(2): 295–305. 2013.\n 74 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 82 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000000[s0]\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Relative$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{brodie_relative_2013,\n\ttitle = {Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western {North} {America}},\n\tvolume = {50},\n\tissn = {00218901},\n\turl = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/1365-2664.12044},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/1365-2664.12044},\n\tabstract = {* Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. * Proportional hazard analysis revealed that ‘baseline’ (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. * Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by {\\textless}2\\%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. * Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. * Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.},\n\tnumber = {2},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Applied Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Brodie, Jedediah and Johnson, Heather and Mitchell, Michael and Zager, Peter and Proffitt, Kelly and Hebblewhite, Mark and Kauffman, Matthew and Johnson, Bruce and Bissonette, John and Bishop, Chad and Gude, Justin and Herbert, Jeff and Hersey, Kent and Hurley, Mark and Lukacs, Paul M. and McCorquodale, Scott and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Nowak, Josh and Sawyer, Hall and Smith, Douglas and White, P.J.},\n\tyear = {2013},\n\tnote = {74 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n82 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000000[s0]},\n\tkeywords = {Additive mortality, Cervus elaphus, Climate change, Compensatory mortality, Harvest, Predation, Ungulate},\n\tpages = {295--305},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n * Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. * Proportional hazard analysis revealed that ‘baseline’ (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. * Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by \\textless2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. * Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. * Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Beguin, J.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Fortin, D.; Cumming, S. G.; Raulier, F.; Racine, P.; and Dussault, C.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Explaining Geographic Gradients in Winter Selection of Landscapes by Boreal Caribou with Implications under Global Changes in Eastern Canada.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n PLoS ONE, 8(10): e78510. 2013.\n 5 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 8 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000007 bibtex: beguin_explaining_2013\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Explaining$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{beguin_explaining_2013,\n\ttitle = {Explaining {Geographic} {Gradients} in {Winter} {Selection} of {Landscapes} by {Boreal} {Caribou} with {Implications} under {Global} {Changes} in {Eastern} {Canada}},\n\tvolume = {8},\n\tissn = {1932-6203},\n\turl = {http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/asset?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0078510.PDF},\n\tdoi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0078510},\n\tabstract = {Many animal species exhibit broad-scale latitudinal or longitudinal gradients in their response to biotic and abiotic components of their habitat. Although knowing the underlying mechanism of these patterns can be critical to the development of sound measures for the preservation or recovery of endangered species, few studies have yet identified which processes drive the existence of geographical gradients in habitat selection. Using extensive spatial data of large latitudinal and longitudinal extent, we tested three hypotheses that could explain the presence of geographical gradients in habitat selection of the endangered boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou): 1) climate-driven selection, which postulates that geographic gradients are a surrogate for climatic gradients; 2) road-driven selection, which proposes that boreal caribou adjust their selection for certain habitat classes as a function of proximity to roads; and 3) an additive effect of both roads and climate. Our data strongly supported road-driven selection over a climate influence. Thus, direct human alteration of landscapes dominates boreal caribou distribution and will likely remain so until the climate changes sufficiently from the present. We also found that boreal caribou avoidance of logged areas was two-fold stronger than burned areas. Limiting the spread of road networks and accounting for the uneven impact of logging compared to wildfire should therefore be integral parts of any habitat management plan and conservation measures within the range of the endangered boreal caribou. The use of hierarchical spatial models allowed us to identify strong spatial latent patterns that provided valuable insights for generating alternative hypotheses about processes responsible for boreal caribou distribution.},\n\tnumber = {10},\n\tjournal = {PLoS ONE},\n\tauthor = {Beguin, Julien and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Fortin, Daniel and Cumming, Steven G. and Raulier, Frédéric and Racine, Pierre and Dussault, Claude},\n\tyear = {2013},\n\tnote = {5 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n8 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000007 \nbibtex: beguin\\_explaining\\_2013},\n\tpages = {e78510},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; Rompré, G.; and Severns, P. M.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Biased correlated random walk and foray loop: which movement hypothesis drives a butterfly metapopulation?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Oecologia, 172(1): 293–305. 2013.\n 11 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000011\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Biased$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_biased_2013,\n\ttitle = {Biased correlated random walk and foray loop: which movement hypothesis drives a butterfly metapopulation?},\n\tvolume = {172},\n\tissn = {0029-8549},\n\tshorttitle = {Biased correlated random walk and foray loop},\n\turl = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00442-012-2475-9},\n\tdoi = {10.1007/s00442-012-2475-9},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {Oecologia},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Rompré, Ghislain and Severns, Paul M.},\n\tyear = {2013},\n\tnote = {11 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000011},\n\tpages = {293--305},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Rapp, J. M.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Crone, E. E.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Sex allocation, pollen limitation and masting in whitebark pine.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Ecology, 101(5): 1345–1352. 2013.\n 44 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 53 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000046\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Sex$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{rapp_sex_2013,\n\ttitle = {Sex allocation, pollen limitation and masting in whitebark pine},\n\tvolume = {101},\n\tissn = {00220477},\n\turl = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/1365-2745.12115},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/1365-2745.12115},\n\tabstract = {1. Masting, the synchronous and episodic production of seed crops, is thought to benefit plant reproductive success through positive density-dependent effects on pollination, dispersal and seed survival. Of these, only increased pollination efficiency in mast years can be a proximate mechanism for masting by synchronizing reproductive effort across individuals through pollen coupling. Increased pollination efficiency requires synchronous investment in male and female function during mast years. Sex allocation theory, however, predicts a trade-off in investment between male and female reproductive allocation dependent on total resources invested in reproduction. We describe patterns of sex allocation in Pinus albicaulis (whitebark pine), using data on pollen and seed cone counts over 5years for 29 trees across 7 sites in Montana, U.S.A. Whitebark pine seed cone maturation increased with site pollen cone production, indicating pollen limitation, and pollen and seed cone production were positively correlated across years. Simulating mature seed cone production from these empirical relationships resulted in greater average mature seed cone production than alternative scenarios of (i) no synchrony between pollen cone production and pollen cone initiation, (ii) negative correlation (trade-off) between seed cone initiation and pollen cone production or (iii) no masting. Synthesis. Our data support a role for pollination efficiency in both increasing long-term seed production and as a proximate mechanism for synchronizing masting in Pinus albicaulis. Increased pollination efficiency joins greater seed dispersal and survival in mast years seen in other studies, as an additional positive density-dependent benefit of masting. Positive density-dependent fitness benefits may therefore influence patterns of sex allocation in relation to total resources invested in reproduction. The pollen limitation found here combined with stand isolation and reduced tree density due to mortality from forest pests and other environmental stressors may lead to reduced seed cone maturation and changes in masting patterns.},\n\tnumber = {5},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Rapp, Joshua M. and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Crone, Elizabeth E.},\n\tyear = {2013},\n\tnote = {44 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n53 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000046},\n\tkeywords = {Mast seeding, Pinus albicaulis, Pollen coupling, Pollination efficiency, Reproductive ecology, Reproductive synchrony, Seed production, Sex ratio},\n\tpages = {1345--1352},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n 1. Masting, the synchronous and episodic production of seed crops, is thought to benefit plant reproductive success through positive density-dependent effects on pollination, dispersal and seed survival. Of these, only increased pollination efficiency in mast years can be a proximate mechanism for masting by synchronizing reproductive effort across individuals through pollen coupling. Increased pollination efficiency requires synchronous investment in male and female function during mast years. Sex allocation theory, however, predicts a trade-off in investment between male and female reproductive allocation dependent on total resources invested in reproduction. We describe patterns of sex allocation in Pinus albicaulis (whitebark pine), using data on pollen and seed cone counts over 5years for 29 trees across 7 sites in Montana, U.S.A. Whitebark pine seed cone maturation increased with site pollen cone production, indicating pollen limitation, and pollen and seed cone production were positively correlated across years. Simulating mature seed cone production from these empirical relationships resulted in greater average mature seed cone production than alternative scenarios of (i) no synchrony between pollen cone production and pollen cone initiation, (ii) negative correlation (trade-off) between seed cone initiation and pollen cone production or (iii) no masting. Synthesis. Our data support a role for pollination efficiency in both increasing long-term seed production and as a proximate mechanism for synchronizing masting in Pinus albicaulis. Increased pollination efficiency joins greater seed dispersal and survival in mast years seen in other studies, as an additional positive density-dependent benefit of masting. Positive density-dependent fitness benefits may therefore influence patterns of sex allocation in relation to total resources invested in reproduction. The pollen limitation found here combined with stand isolation and reduced tree density due to mortality from forest pests and other environmental stressors may lead to reduced seed cone maturation and changes in masting patterns.\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Lorente, M.; Parsons, W. F J; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Munson, A. D.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Wildfire and forest harvest disturbances in the boreal forest leave different long-lasting spatial signatures.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Plant and Soil, 364(1-2): 39–54. 2013.\n 7 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000008\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{lorente_wildfire_2013,\n\ttitle = {Wildfire and forest harvest disturbances in the boreal forest leave different long-lasting spatial signatures},\n\tvolume = {364},\n\tissn = {0032079X},\n\tdoi = {10.1007/s11104-012-1331-3},\n\tabstract = {Natural disturbances leave long-term legacies that vary among landscapes and ecosystem types, and which become integral parts of successional processes at a given location. As humans change land use, not only are immediate post-disturbance patterns altered, but the processes of recovery themselves are likely altered by the disturbance. We assessed whether short-term effects on soil and vegetation that distinguish wildfire from forest harvest persist over 60 years after disturbance in boreal black spruce forests, or post-disturbance processes of recovery promote convergence of the two disturbance types. Using semi-variograms and Principal Coordinates of Neighbour Matrices, we formulated precise, a priori spatial hypotheses to discriminate spatial signatures following wildfire and forest harvest both over the short- (16-18 years) and long-term (62-98 years). Both over the short- and the long-term, wildfire generated a wide spectrum of responses in soil and vegetation properties at different spatial scales, while logging produced simpler patterns corresponding to the regular linear pattern of harvest trails and to pre-disturbance ericaceous shrub patches that persist between trails. Disturbance by harvest simplified spatial patterns associated with soil and vegetation properties compared to patterns associated with natural disturbance by fire. The observed differences in these patterns between disturbance types persist for over 60 years. Ecological management strategies inspired by natural disturbances should aim to increase the complexity of patterns associated with harvest interventions.},\n\tnumber = {1-2},\n\tjournal = {Plant and Soil},\n\tauthor = {Lorente, Miren and Parsons, William F J and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Munson, Alison D.},\n\tyear = {2013},\n\tnote = {7 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n0 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000008},\n\tkeywords = {Black spruce boreal forest, Ecosystem management, Forest disturbance, Land-use legacies, Spatial modelling},\n\tpages = {39--54},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Severns, P. M.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Schultz, C. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Evaluating functional connectivity with matrix behavior uncertainty for an endangered butterfly.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Landscape Ecology, 28(3): 559–569. 2013.\n 14 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 1 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000018\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Evaluating$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{severns_evaluating_2013,\n\ttitle = {Evaluating functional connectivity with matrix behavior uncertainty for an endangered butterfly},\n\tvolume = {28},\n\tissn = {0921-2973},\n\turl = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10980-013-9860-6},\n\tdoi = {10.1007/s10980-013-9860-6},\n\tabstract = {Understanding animal responses to landscape elements helps forecast population reactions to changing landscape conditions. The challenge is that some behaviors are poorly known and difficult to estimate. We assessed how uncertainty in behavioral responses to dense woods, an avoided landscape structure, impacts functional connectivity among reproductive habitat patches for Fender’s blue butterfly, an endangered prairie species of western Oregon, USA. We designed a factorial simulation experiment using a spatially explicit individual-based model to project functional connectivity for female butterflies across current and alternative landscapes. We varied the probability of dense woods entry and turning angle standard deviation for movements within the dense woods over a range of biologically reasonable and observed values. Butterflies in the current landscape (46 \\% dense woods) and one with prairie encroached by forest (60 \\% dense woods) showed reductions in functional connectivity estimates consistent with the expectations of habitat fragmentation. Although dense woods entrance uncertainty impacted functional connectivity projections, uncertainty in the dense woods turning angle standard deviation had comparatively little impact on connectivity estimates. Reduction and reconfiguration of the current dense woods to 27 \\% cover (restored landscape) appeared to facilitate a corridor behavior in dispersing individuals, likely providing a functional connectivity estimate comparable to the historic landscape ({\\textless}5 \\% dense woods). Our simulations suggest that additional study of butterfly movement within the dense woods is unnecessary and that a partial reduction in dense woods would be sufficient to achieve historic levels of functional connectivity for Fender’s blue across the study landscape.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\tnumber = {3},\n\tjournal = {Landscape Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Severns, Paul M. and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Schultz, Cheryl B.},\n\tyear = {2013},\n\tnote = {14 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n1 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000018},\n\tkeywords = {Biased correlated random walk, Ecology, Forestry, Forestry Management, Functional connectivity, Habitat fragmentation, Habitat restoration, Landscape Ecology, Matrix configuration, Plant Ecology, Plant Sciences, SEIBM},\n\tpages = {559--569},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2012\n \n \n (2)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Fajardo, A.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Reversal of multicentury tree growth improvements and loss of synchrony at mountain tree lines point to changes in key drivers.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Ecology, 100(3): 782–794. 2012.\n 47 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 51 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000035\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Reversal$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{fajardo_reversal_2012,\n\ttitle = {Reversal of multicentury tree growth improvements and loss of synchrony at mountain tree lines point to changes in key drivers},\n\tvolume = {100},\n\tissn = {00220477},\n\turl = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2012.01955.x},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/j.1365-2745.2012.01955.x},\n\tnumber = {3},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Fajardo, Alex and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2012},\n\tnote = {47 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n51 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000035},\n\tpages = {782--794},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Sala, A.; Hopping, K.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Delzon, S.; and Crone, E. E.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Masting in whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) depletes stored nutrients.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n New Phytologist, 196(1): 189–199. 2012.\n 118 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 117 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] ZSCC: 0000091 \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Masting$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{sala_masting_2012,\n\ttitle = {Masting in whitebark pine ({Pinus} albicaulis) depletes stored nutrients},\n\tvolume = {196},\n\tissn = {0028646X},\n\turl = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04257.x},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04257.x},\n\tabstract = {• In masting trees, synchronized, heavy reproductive events are thought to deplete stored resources and to impose a replenishment period before subsequent masting. However, direct evidence of resource depletion in wild, masting trees is very rare. Here, we examined the timing and magnitude (local vs individual-level) of stored nutrient depletion after a heavy mast event in Pinus albicaulis. • In 2005, the mast year, we compared seasonal changes in leaf and sapwood nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and leaf photosynthetic rates in cone-bearing branches, branches that never produced cones, and branches with experimentally removed cones. We also compared nutrient concentrations in cone branches and branches that had never had cones between 2005 and 2006, and measured tree ring width and new shoot growth during 2005. • During the mast year, N or P depletion occurred only in tissue fractions of reproductive branches, where photosynthetic rates were reduced. However, by the end of the following year, nutrients were depleted in all branches, indicating individual-level resource depletion. New shoot and radial growth were not affected by masting. • We provide direct evidence that mast events in wild trees deplete stored nutrients. Our results highlight the importance of evaluating reproductive costs over time and at the individual level.},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {New Phytologist},\n\tauthor = {Sala, Anna and Hopping, Kelly and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Delzon, Sylvain and Crone, Elizabeth E.},\n\tyear = {2012},\n\tpmid = {22889129},\n\tnote = {118 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n117 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\nZSCC: 0000091 },\n\tkeywords = {Nitrogen, Nitrogen: deficiency, Nitrogen: metabolism, Phosphorus, Phosphorus: deficiency, Phosphorus: metabolism, Photosynthesis, Pinus, Pinus: anatomy \\& histology, Pinus: growth \\& development, Pinus: metabolism, Pinus: physiology, Plant Bark, Plant Bark: anatomy \\& histology, Plant Bark: metabolism, Plant Bark: physiology, Plant Leaves, Plant Leaves: metabolism, Plant Shoots, Plant Shoots: growth \\& development, Reproduction, Reproduction: physiology},\n\tpages = {189--199},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2011\n \n \n (4)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Crone, E. E.; McIntire, E. J. B.; and Brodie, J.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n What defines mast seeding? Spatio-temporal patterns of cone production by whitebark pine.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Ecology, 99(2). 2011.\n 42 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 75 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00040\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"What$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{crone_what_2011,\n\ttitle = {What defines mast seeding? {Spatio}-temporal patterns of cone production by whitebark pine},\n\tvolume = {99},\n\tissn = {00220477},\n\tshorttitle = {What defines mast seeding?},\n\turl = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01790.x},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01790.x},\n\tnumber = {2},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Crone, Elizabeth E. and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Brodie, Jedediah},\n\tyear = {2011},\n\tnote = {42 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n75 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00040},\n\tkeywords = {Folder - NSERC Discovery 2011},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Fajardo, A.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Under strong niche overlap conspecifics do not compete but help each other to survive: facilitation at the intraspecific level.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Ecology, 99: 642–650. 2011.\n 52 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 123 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00080\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Under$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{fajardo_under_2011,\n\ttitle = {Under strong niche overlap conspecifics do not compete but help each other to survive: facilitation at the intraspecific level},\n\tvolume = {99},\n\tshorttitle = {J. {Ecol}.},\n\turl = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01771.x},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01771.x},\n\tabstract = {1. Competition among conspecifics of the same cohort has been traditionally thought to be a main process driving population dynamics. In this classical view, however, the role of facilitation in stress- ful conditions has rarely been considered. Here, using a transplant experiment across a forest–prai- rie gradient, we test whether the stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) extends to individuals thought to be strongly competing. 2. Wetransplanted 2-year-old seedlings of Nothofagus pumilio at two different densities (clusters of 10 and isolated) and at different distances from the forest edge (from 30 m inside the forest up to 50 m outside the forest in the prairie). We further stem-mapped all seedlings belonging to the clus- ters and computed a competition index (CI). After 3 years of growing, survival and increment growth in diameter and height were measured and analysed using mixed-effects models. We con- ducted a nearest-neighbour analysis using seedlings’ CI and growth and computed model fit using the area under the curve (AUC) method. 3. Seedlings planted in dense clusters had significantly higher survival than solitary seedlings at the stressful end of the gradient. This trend was reversed at the opposite end of the gradient, supporting the SGHat the intraspecific level. Pursuing this at the level of the individual, we found that higher CIs (more neighbours) in seedlings predicted higher probabilities of their survival (facilitation) in stressful conditions. 4. Seedlings diameter and height increment growth were not affected by planting density and only diameter varied along the stress gradient; seedlings had higher diameter increments in growth out- side the forest. Finally, when compared with conceptual models, our results mostly support predic- tions of a higher facilitation at intermediate position along the gradient. 5. Synthesis. We showed that facilitation overrides competition among tree seedlings even at loca- tions under moderate stress; the facilitation process occurs in resource-mediated interactions (niche overlapping). These results represent an important shift in our way to understand the density- dependent mortality process, and calls for a model reformulation including positive interactions evenwhen competition is expected to be strongest (conspecifics of the samecohort).},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Fajardo, Alex and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2011},\n\tnote = {52 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n123 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00080},\n\tpages = {642--650},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n 1. Competition among conspecifics of the same cohort has been traditionally thought to be a main process driving population dynamics. In this classical view, however, the role of facilitation in stress- ful conditions has rarely been considered. Here, using a transplant experiment across a forest–prai- rie gradient, we test whether the stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) extends to individuals thought to be strongly competing. 2. Wetransplanted 2-year-old seedlings of Nothofagus pumilio at two different densities (clusters of 10 and isolated) and at different distances from the forest edge (from 30 m inside the forest up to 50 m outside the forest in the prairie). We further stem-mapped all seedlings belonging to the clus- ters and computed a competition index (CI). After 3 years of growing, survival and increment growth in diameter and height were measured and analysed using mixed-effects models. We con- ducted a nearest-neighbour analysis using seedlings’ CI and growth and computed model fit using the area under the curve (AUC) method. 3. Seedlings planted in dense clusters had significantly higher survival than solitary seedlings at the stressful end of the gradient. This trend was reversed at the opposite end of the gradient, supporting the SGHat the intraspecific level. Pursuing this at the level of the individual, we found that higher CIs (more neighbours) in seedlings predicted higher probabilities of their survival (facilitation) in stressful conditions. 4. Seedlings diameter and height increment growth were not affected by planting density and only diameter varied along the stress gradient; seedlings had higher diameter increments in growth out- side the forest. Finally, when compared with conceptual models, our results mostly support predic- tions of a higher facilitation at intermediate position along the gradient. 5. Synthesis. We showed that facilitation overrides competition among tree seedlings even at loca- tions under moderate stress; the facilitation process occurs in resource-mediated interactions (niche overlapping). These results represent an important shift in our way to understand the density- dependent mortality process, and calls for a model reformulation including positive interactions evenwhen competition is expected to be strongest (conspecifics of the samecohort).\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; and Fajardo, A.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Facilitation within Species: A Possible Origin of Group-Selected Superorganisms.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n The American Naturalist, 178(1): 88–97. 2011.\n 44 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 52 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00033 \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Facilitation$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_facilitation_2011,\n\ttitle = {Facilitation within {Species}: {A} {Possible} {Origin} of {Group}-{Selected} {Superorganisms}},\n\tvolume = {178},\n\tissn = {00030147},\n\turl = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/info/10.1086/660286},\n\tdoi = {10.1086/660286},\n\tabstract = {Facilitation (positive interactions) has emerged as a dominant ecological mechanism in many ecosystems. Its importance has recently been expanded to include intraspecific interactions, creating the potential for higher-level natural selection within species. Using multiple lines of evidence, we show that conspecific facilitation within the southern beech tree, Nothofagus pumilio, appears to overcome competition in two life phases. In a seedling experiment addressing stress and planting-density effects, we found that mortality was lowest (∼0\\%) where there was no stress and was indistinguishable across densities. Furthermore, in mature forests (45 years old), genetically variable, merged individuals had lower mortality (-50\\%) than unmerged individuals in locations without identifiable stress. Thus, a full understanding of the occurrence of facilitation may require a more general model of resource improvements than the commonly cited stress gradient hypothesis. Additionally, the merged trees showed a density-dependent mortality pattern at the level of the group. These data demonstrate a potential mechanism (facilitation) driving natural selection at this higher level, via stem merging. These merged "superorganisms" would confirm theoretical predictions whereby facilitation acts as an ecological mechanism driving group selection.},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {The American Naturalist},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Fajardo, Alex},\n\tyear = {2011},\n\tpmid = {21670580},\n\tnote = {44 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n52 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00033 },\n\tkeywords = {Folder - NSERC Discovery 2011, multistemmed trees, nothofagus pumilio, patagonia, positive density dependence, positive interactions, stress gradient},\n\tpages = {88--97},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Larocque, G.; Mailly, D.; Yue, T.; Anand, M.; Peng, C.; Kazanci, C.; Etterson, M.; Goethals, P.; Jø rgensen , S.; Schramski, J.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Marceau, D.; Chen, B.; Chen, G.; Yang, Z.; Novotna, B.; Luckai, N.; Bhatti, J.; Liu, J.; Munson, A. D.; Gordon, a M.; and Ii, J. A.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Common challenges for ecological modelling: Synthesis of facilitated discussions held at the symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling in Quebec City, Canada, (October 6–9, 2009).\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecological Modelling, 222(14): 2456–2468. 2011.\n 6 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 7 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00000\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Common$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{larocque_common_2011,\n\ttitle = {Common challenges for ecological modelling: {Synthesis} of facilitated discussions held at the symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the {International} {Society} for {Ecological} {Modelling} in {Quebec} {City}, {Canada}, ({October} 6–9, 2009)},\n\tvolume = {222},\n\tissn = {03043800},\n\tshorttitle = {Common challenges for ecological modelling},\n\turl = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380010006836},\n\tdoi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.12.017},\n\tabstract = {The eleven symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM 2009) held in Quebec City, Canada, October 6-9, 2009, included facilitated discussion sessions following formal presentations. Each symposium focused on a specific subject, and all the subjects could be classified into three broad categories: theoretical development, population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Following discussions with the symposia organizers, which indicated that they all shared similar issues and concerns, the facilitated discussions were task-oriented around four basic questions: (1) key challenges in the research area, (2) generating and sharing new ideas, (3) improving collaboration and networking, and (4) increasing visibility to decision-makers, partners and clients. Common challenges that emerged from the symposia included the need for improved communication and collaboration among different academic disciplines, further progress in both theoretical and practical modelling approaches, and accentuation of technology transfer. Regarding the generation and sharing of new ideas, the main issue that emerged was the type of positive interactions that should be encouraged among potential collaborators. The usefulness of the Internet, particularly for the sharing of open-source software and conducting discussion forums, was highlighted for improving collaboration and networking. Several communication tools are available today, and it is important for modellers to use them more intensively. Visibility can be increased by publishing professional newsletters, maintaining informal contacts with the public, organizing educational sessions in primary and secondary schools, and developing simplified analytical frameworks and pilot studies. Specific issues raised in each symposium are also discussed. © 2011.},\n\tnumber = {14},\n\tjournal = {Ecological Modelling},\n\tauthor = {Larocque, G.R. and Mailly, D. and Yue, T.-X. and Anand, M. and Peng, C. and Kazanci, C. and Etterson, M. and Goethals, P. and Jø rgensen, S.E. and Schramski, J.R. and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Marceau, D.J. and Chen, B. and Chen, G.Q. and Yang, Z.F. and Novotna, B. and Luckai, N. and Bhatti, J.S. and Liu, J. and Munson, A. D. and Gordon, a M. and Ii, J.C. Ascough},\n\tyear = {2011},\n\tnote = {6 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n7 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00000},\n\tkeywords = {Ecological models, Facilitation, Folder - NSERC Discovery 2011, ISEM 2009, Scientific discussions, Symposia},\n\tpages = {2456--2468},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2010\n \n \n (4)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Johnstone, J. F.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Pedersen, E. J.; King, G.; and Pisaric, M. J. F.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecosphere, 1(6): art14. 2010.\n 52 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 64 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00030\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"A$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{johnstone_sensitive_2010,\n\ttitle = {A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate},\n\tvolume = {1},\n\tissn = {2150-8925},\n\turl = {https://doi.org/10.1890/ES10-00102.1},\n\tdoi = {10.1890/ES10-00102.1},\n\tnumber = {6},\n\tjournal = {Ecosphere},\n\tauthor = {Johnstone, Jill F. and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Pedersen, Eric J. and King, Gregory and Pisaric, Michael J. F.},\n\tyear = {2010},\n\tnote = {52 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n64 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00030},\n\tpages = {art14},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Fajardo, A.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Merged trees in second-growth, fire-origin forests in Patagonia, Chile: positive spatial association patterns and their ecological implications.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n American Journal of Botany, 97(9): 1424–1430. 2010.\n 1 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 22 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00020 \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Merged$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{fajardo_merged_2010,\n\ttitle = {Merged trees in second-growth, fire-origin forests in {Patagonia}, {Chile}: positive spatial association patterns and their ecological implications},\n\tvolume = {97},\n\tissn = {0002-9122},\n\turl = {http://www.amjbot.org/cgi/doi/10.3732/ajb1000054},\n\tdoi = {10.3732/ajb1000054},\n\tabstract = {•Premise of the Study: Negative density-dependent processes have been thought to be the primary cause of shifting spatial patterns of tree populations through time. The existence of adult tree clusters might challenge this classical prediction. Here, we document the prevalence of merged stems (clustering of mature trees leading to stem fusion) in second-growth forests of Nothofagus pumilio and hypothesize that it is nonrandom but predictable in space. •Methods: We stem-mapped nine sites in second-growth edge and interior forests of fire origin and in mature forests of N. pumilio ({\\textgreater}3500 trees) in central Patagonia, Chile. The spatial structure of stand-level and individual-level features was estimated with spatial analyses (pair-correlation function and nearest-neighbor distances). •Key Results: Multistemmed trees were merged clusters of separate individuals. Merged trees were predominantly found at the edge of the second-growth forests. We found strong clustering (≤5 m) at forest edge sites and none at interior sites. Nearest-neighbor distance distributions were unimodal for unmerged trees and monotonically decreasing for merged trees; interstem distances were much smaller at the edge sites than at the interior sites. •Conclusions: The occurrence of merged trees at the forest edge, and the resulting high spatial aggregation of stems, is consistent with the hypothesis that establishment was probably aggregated. The spatial pattern found at the forest edge changes the standard spatial pattern sequence through time in temperate forests, altering traditional forest-stand-dynamics models.},\n\tnumber = {9},\n\tjournal = {American Journal of Botany},\n\tauthor = {Fajardo, Alex and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2010},\n\tpmid = {21616896},\n\tnote = {1 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n22 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00020 },\n\tkeywords = {Competition, Folder - NSERC Discovery 2011, Forest stand dynamics, Neighborhood analysis, Paircorrelation function, Reserva Coyhaique, Spatial patterns, multistemmed trees, nothofagus pumilio},\n\tpages = {1424--1430},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Desrochers, A.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Cumming, S. G.; Nowak, J.; and Sharma, S.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n False negatives - A false problem in studies of habitat selection?.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ideas in Ecology and Evolution, 3: 20–25. 2010.\n 1 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 4 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00005\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"False$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{desrochers_false_2010,\n\ttitle = {False negatives - {A} false problem in studies of habitat selection?},\n\tvolume = {3},\n\tissn = {19183178},\n\turl = {http://library.queensu.ca/ojs/index.php/IEE/article/view/2528/3124},\n\tdoi = {10.4033/iee.2010.3.5.n},\n\tjournal = {Ideas in Ecology and Evolution},\n\tauthor = {Desrochers, Andre and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Cumming, Steve G. and Nowak, Josh and Sharma, Sapna},\n\tyear = {2010},\n\tnote = {1 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n4 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00005},\n\tpages = {20--25},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n Marucco, F.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Predicting spatio-temporal recolonization of large carnivore populations and livestock depredation risk: wolves in the Italian Alps.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Applied Ecology, 47(4): 789–798. 2010.\n 74 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 88 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00054\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Predicting$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{marucco_predicting_2010,\n\ttitle = {Predicting spatio-temporal recolonization of large carnivore populations and livestock depredation risk: wolves in the {Italian} {Alps}},\n\tvolume = {47},\n\tissn = {00218901},\n\tshorttitle = {Predicting spatio-temporal recolonization of large},\n\turl = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01831.x},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01831.x},\n\tabstract = {1. Wolves Canis lupus recently recolonized the Western Alps through dispersal from the Italian Apennines, representing one of several worldwide examples of large carnivores increasing in highly human-dominated landscapes. Understanding and predicting expansion of this population is important for conservation because of its direct impact on livestock and its high level of societal opposition. 2. We built a predictive, spatially explicit, individual-based model to examine wolf population expansion in this fragmented landscape, and livestock depredation risk. We developed the model based on known demographic processes, social structure, behaviour and habitat selection of wolves collected during a 10-year intensive field study of this wolf population. 3. During model validation, our model accurately described the recolonization process within the Italian Alps, correctly predicting wolf pack locations, pack numbers and wolf population size, between 1999 and 2008. 4. We then projected packs and dispersers over the entire Italian Alps for 2013, 2018 and 2023. We predicted 25 packs (95\\% CI: 19201332) in 2013, 36 (23201347) in 2018 and 49 (29201368) in 2023. The South-Western Alps were the main source for wolves repopulating the Alps from 1999 to 2008. The source area for further successful dispersers will probably shift to the North-Western Alps after 2008, but the large lakes in the Central Alps will probably act as a spatial barrier slowing the wolf expansion. 5. Using the pack presence forecasts, we estimated spatially explicit wolf depredation risk on livestock, allowing tailored local and regional management actions. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our predictive model is novel because we follow the spatio-temporal dynamics of packs, not just population size, which have substantially different requirements and impacts on wolf2013human conflicts than wandering dispersers. Our approach enables prioritization of management efforts, including minimizing livestock depredations, identifying important corridors and barriers, and locating future source populations for successful wolf recolonization of the Alps.},\n\tnumber = {4},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Applied Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Marucco, F. and McIntire, E. J. B.},\n\tyear = {2010},\n\tnote = {74 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n88 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00054},\n\tkeywords = {Folder - NSERC Discovery 2011, Folder - Sarah Bauduin},\n\tpages = {789--798},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n 1. Wolves Canis lupus recently recolonized the Western Alps through dispersal from the Italian Apennines, representing one of several worldwide examples of large carnivores increasing in highly human-dominated landscapes. Understanding and predicting expansion of this population is important for conservation because of its direct impact on livestock and its high level of societal opposition. 2. We built a predictive, spatially explicit, individual-based model to examine wolf population expansion in this fragmented landscape, and livestock depredation risk. We developed the model based on known demographic processes, social structure, behaviour and habitat selection of wolves collected during a 10-year intensive field study of this wolf population. 3. During model validation, our model accurately described the recolonization process within the Italian Alps, correctly predicting wolf pack locations, pack numbers and wolf population size, between 1999 and 2008. 4. We then projected packs and dispersers over the entire Italian Alps for 2013, 2018 and 2023. We predicted 25 packs (95% CI: 19201332) in 2013, 36 (23201347) in 2018 and 49 (29201368) in 2023. The South-Western Alps were the main source for wolves repopulating the Alps from 1999 to 2008. The source area for further successful dispersers will probably shift to the North-Western Alps after 2008, but the large lakes in the Central Alps will probably act as a spatial barrier slowing the wolf expansion. 5. Using the pack presence forecasts, we estimated spatially explicit wolf depredation risk on livestock, allowing tailored local and regional management actions. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our predictive model is novel because we follow the spatio-temporal dynamics of packs, not just population size, which have substantially different requirements and impacts on wolf2013human conflicts than wandering dispersers. Our approach enables prioritization of management efforts, including minimizing livestock depredations, identifying important corridors and barriers, and locating future source populations for successful wolf recolonization of the Alps.\n

\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2009\n \n \n (1)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; and Fajardo, A.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Beyond description: The active and effective way to infer processes from spatial patterns.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecology, 90(1): 46–56. 2009.\n 335 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 403 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00294 \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Beyond$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_beyond_2009,\n\ttitle = {Beyond description: {The} active and effective way to infer processes from spatial patterns},\n\tvolume = {90},\n\tissn = {00129658},\n\tshorttitle = {Beyond description},\n\turl = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1890/07-2096.1},\n\tdoi = {10.1890/07-2096.1},\n\tabstract = {The ecological processes that create spatial patterns have been examined by direct measurement and through measurement of patterns resulting from experimental manipulations. But in many situations, creating experiments and direct measurement of spatial processes can be difficult or impossible. Here, we identify and define a rapidly emerging alternative approach, which we formalize as "space as a surrogate" for unmeasured processes, that is used to maximize inference about ecological processes through the analysis of spatial patterns or spatial residuals alone. This approach requires three elements to be successful: a priori hypotheses, ecological theory and/or knowledge, and precise spatial analysis. We offer new insights into a long-standing debate about process-pattern links in ecology and highlight six recent studies that have successfully examined spatial patterns to understand a diverse array of processes: competition in forest-stand dynamics, dispersal of freshwater fish, movement of American marten, invasion mechanisms of exotic trees, dynamics of natural disturbances, and tropical-plant diversity. Key benefits of using space as a surrogate can be found where experimental manipulation or direct measurements are difficult or expensive to obtain or not possible. We note that, even where experiments can be performed, this procedure may aid in measuring the in situ importance of the processes uncovered through experiments.},\n\tnumber = {1},\n\tjournal = {Ecology},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Fajardo, Alex},\n\teditor = {McIntire, E J B},\n\tyear = {2009},\n\tpmid = {19294912},\n\tnote = {335 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n403 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00294 },\n\tkeywords = {A priori inference, Competition, Dispersal, Diversity, Ecological processes, Invasion, Space as a surrogate, Spatial pattern, Spatial residuals},\n\tpages = {46--56},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2008\n \n \n (1)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n MacKenzie, M. D.; McIntire, E. J. B.; Quideau, S. A.; and Graham, R. C.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Charcoal Distribution Affects Carbon and Nitrogen Contents in Forest Soils of California.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Soil Science Society of America Journal, 72(6): 1774. 2008.\n 26 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 39 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00034\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Charcoal$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mackenzie_charcoal_2008,\n\ttitle = {Charcoal {Distribution} {Affects} {Carbon} and {Nitrogen} {Contents} in {Forest} {Soils} of {California}},\n\tvolume = {72},\n\tissn = {1435-0661},\n\turl = {https://www.dropbox.com/s/xq3c16vk3ufpd66/MacKenzie%20et%20al.%20-%202008%20-%20Charcoal%20Distribution%20Affects%20Carbon%20and%20Nitrogen%20.pdf?dl=1},\n\tdoi = {10.2136/sssaj2007.0363},\n\tabstract = {Fire is the dominant natural disturbance regime in most ecosystems of California. The long-term relict of fire is charcoal, which has been shown to increase N mineralization and also represents a pool of chemically stabilized C whose quantity and spatial distribution have not been well characterized in forest soils. We examined the charcoal content in three different ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada, including oak woodland (low elevation), mixed conifer (middle elevation), and red fir (high elevation). Using a fine-scale (2.5-m minimum resolution) spatially explicit sampling protocol applied to plots ranging between 0.25 to 0.5 ha, we examined the autocorrelation of forest floor and mineral soil properties including charcoal C. Charcoal C content ranged from 1000 to 5000 kg ha(-1) in the surface 6 cm of soil and increased with increasing elevation and latitude. Spatial patterns of forest floor and mineral soil properties were generally patchy at a scale of 5 to 20 in, except in the mixed conifer ecosystem (no pattern). The patchiness that existed at the other sites was largely a result of the distribution of total C and total N in the mineral soil. A spatial mixed-effect ANOVA indicated that charcoal had a 10 to 20\\% effect on C and N contents in both forest floor and mineral soil surface horizons, independent of other parameters including ecosystem type and total C or N. These results provide evidence that charcoal has a relationship with soil C and N content, which may influence soil biogeochemistry.},\n\tnumber = {6},\n\tjournal = {Soil Science Society of America Journal},\n\tauthor = {MacKenzie, M. Derek and McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Quideau, S. A. and Graham, R. C.},\n\tyear = {2008},\n\tnote = {26 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n39 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00034},\n\tkeywords = {Folder - NSERC Discovery 2011},\n\tpages = {1774},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2007\n \n \n (2)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n Fajardo, A.; and McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Distinguishing Microsite and Competition Processes in Tree Growth Dynamics: An A Priori Spatial Modeling Approach.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n The American Naturalist, 169(5): 647–661. 2007.\n 43 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 52 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00039 \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Distinguishing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{fajardo_distinguishing_2007,\n\ttitle = {Distinguishing {Microsite} and {Competition} {Processes} in {Tree} {Growth} {Dynamics}: {An} {A} {Priori} {Spatial} {Modeling} {Approach}},\n\tvolume = {169},\n\tissn = {0003-0147},\n\turl = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/513492},\n\tdoi = {10.1086/513492},\n\tabstract = {Spatially oriented studies have examined the role of competition on plant populations and communities but not the combined effects of microsite heterogeneity and competition. The aim of this study was threefold: first, to apply and test a common geostatistical tool (semivariograms) to disentangle competition and microsite effects; second, to assess the results of this methodology against a generalized early stand development model for tree populations; and third, to examine the role and timing of microsite and competition processes in early population stages. We mapped and measured annual relative growth rates of trees in three different-aged ponderosa pine stands in Patagonia, Chile. We tested the relative support of five a priori semivariogram-based hypotheses and showed that through stand development, many sites followed our expected sequence of semivariogram models. These translated to initial spatially random growth followed by microsite-dominated, mixed microsite and competition, and finally pure competition effects on growth. Our approach will have many and diverse applications wherever processes differ in the type of spatial pattern they exhibit as well as in spatial scale. We emphasize that this methodology works best when there is strong a priori support for the hypotheses being tested but the timing, strength, and occurrence of processes are not known.},\n\tnumber = {5},\n\tjournal = {The American Naturalist},\n\tauthor = {Fajardo, Alex and McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2007},\n\tpmid = {17427135},\n\tnote = {43 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n52 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00039 },\n\tkeywords = {Folder - NSERC Discovery 2011, Folder - SAAS, centro de investigacio, competitive interactions, corresponding author, derosa pine, forest stand development, microsite effects, patagonia, pon-, present address, semivariograms},\n\tpages = {647--661},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; Schultz, C. B.; and Crone, E. E.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Designing a network for butterfly habitat restoration: Where individuals, populations and landscapes interact.\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Applied Ecology, 44(4): 725–736. 2007.\n 61 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 70 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00065\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_designing_2007,\n\ttitle = {Designing a network for butterfly habitat restoration: {Where} individuals, populations and landscapes interact},\n\tvolume = {44},\n\tissn = {00218901},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01326.x},\n\tabstract = {1. Restoring biologically appropriate habitat networks is fundamental to the persistence and connectivity of at-risk species surviving in highly fragmented environments. For many at-risk species, this landscape planning problem requires combining detailed biological information about the species with the landscape, economic and social realities of the restoration effort. 2. Here, we assess the ability of potential restored landscapes to create persistent and connected populations of the federally endangered Fender’s blue butterfly ( Icaricia icarioides fenderi ) in Oregon’s Willamette Valley. Like many other at-risk species, a very small amount (0·5\\%) of historic habitat remains and much of this habitat is highly degraded. 3. To do this, we combine extensive demography and behaviour data from prior studies of Fender’s blue with landscape maps of potential restoration sites by building and running a spatially explicit landscape model. We chose a simulation approach because previous attempts using more traditional population modelling did not provide sufficiently informative answers for this restoration problem. 4. From our simulations, we: (a) provide a solution to the general landscape restoration problem of determining whether patches that are available according to social, economic and ecological realities are sufficient to restore persistence and connectivity; (b) supported our predictions from our previous models about persistence of our large patches and expanded our inference to include connectivity and persistence of small patches; and (c) found several emergent properties of our system, including identifying stepping-stone patches, observing asymmetric connectivity and uncovering reciprocal effects of connectivity and population dynamics. 5. Synthesis and applications. Assuming no large disturbances, and relying on our 14 years of data collection and models, restoring all currently degraded and potentially available habitat patches to high quality native prairie would be sufficient for long-term persistence of Fender’s blue butterfly in the West Eugene area, Oregon. This conclusion resolves many of the shortcomings of our previous population and metapopulation models that were not able to combine the necessary landscape complexity with species behaviour to address this restoration problem.},\n\tnumber = {4},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Applied Ecology},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Schultz, Cheryl B. and Crone, Elizabeth E.},\n\tyear = {2007},\n\tnote = {61 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n70 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00065},\n\tkeywords = {Fender's blue butterfly, Folder - BCRWvsFL, Folder - Fortin Proposal, Folder - NSERC Discovery 2011, Folder - SAAS, Habitat connectivity, Landscape model, Reserve design, Restoration, Spatially explicit individual-based model, Stepping stones},\n\tpages = {725--736},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n 1. Restoring biologically appropriate habitat networks is fundamental to the persistence and connectivity of at-risk species surviving in highly fragmented environments. For many at-risk species, this landscape planning problem requires combining detailed biological information about the species with the landscape, economic and social realities of the restoration effort. 2. Here, we assess the ability of potential restored landscapes to create persistent and connected populations of the federally endangered Fender’s blue butterfly ( Icaricia icarioides fenderi ) in Oregon’s Willamette Valley. Like many other at-risk species, a very small amount (0·5%) of historic habitat remains and much of this habitat is highly degraded. 3. To do this, we combine extensive demography and behaviour data from prior studies of Fender’s blue with landscape maps of potential restoration sites by building and running a spatially explicit landscape model. We chose a simulation approach because previous attempts using more traditional population modelling did not provide sufficiently informative answers for this restoration problem. 4. From our simulations, we: (a) provide a solution to the general landscape restoration problem of determining whether patches that are available according to social, economic and ecological realities are sufficient to restore persistence and connectivity; (b) supported our predictions from our previous models about persistence of our large patches and expanded our inference to include connectivity and persistence of small patches; and (c) found several emergent properties of our system, including identifying stepping-stone patches, observing asymmetric connectivity and uncovering reciprocal effects of connectivity and population dynamics. 5. Synthesis and applications. Assuming no large disturbances, and relying on our 14 years of data collection and models, restoring all currently degraded and potentially available habitat patches to high quality native prairie would be sufficient for long-term persistence of Fender’s blue butterfly in the West Eugene area, Oregon. This conclusion resolves many of the shortcomings of our previous population and metapopulation models that were not able to combine the necessary landscape complexity with species behaviour to address this restoration problem.\n

\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2006\n \n \n (1)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; and Fortin, M.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Structure and function of wildfire and mountain pine beetle forest boundaries.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecography, 29(3): 309–318. 2006.\n 24 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 29 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00027\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Structure$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_structure_2006,\n\ttitle = {Structure and function of wildfire and mountain pine beetle forest boundaries},\n\tvolume = {29},\n\tissn = {09067590},\n\turl = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04278.x},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04278.x},\n\tabstract = {Landscape boundaries, in particular those created by natural disturbances, are fundamental structures in landscape functioning. At the stand scale, forest boundaries show a wide range of characteristics varying from sharp to diffuse, wavy to straight, enclosed areas (patches) to open ones; all of these have different effects of forest vegetation. The objectives of this study were 1) to characterize the structure of forest boundaries (width, steepness, heterogeneity) and 2) to investigate forest vegetation functional response in the boundary zones created by wildfires and mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks. We studied 11 mountain pine beetle and 7 wildfire boundary zones (4},\n\tnumber = {3},\n\tjournal = {Ecography},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Fortin, Marie-Josée},\n\tyear = {2006},\n\tnote = {24 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n29 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00027},\n\tpages = {309--318},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2005\n \n \n (2)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; Duchesneau, R.; and Kimmins, J. P.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Seed and bud legacies interact with varying fire regimes to drive long-term dynamics of boreal forest communities.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 35(11): 2765–2773. 2005.\n 15 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 16 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00017\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Seed$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_seed_2005,\n\ttitle = {Seed and bud legacies interact with varying fire regimes to drive long-term dynamics of boreal forest communities},\n\tvolume = {35},\n\tissn = {0045-5067},\n\turl = {http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/x05-187},\n\tdoi = {10.1139/x05-187},\n\tabstract = {Sustainable forest management that employs the emulation of natural disturbance paradigm develops plans based on disturbance-driven forest succession. However, most research on forest succession has focused primarily on postdisturbance species change, often ignoring predisturbance legacies. We used the FORECAST ecosystem management model and a newly created natural regeneration submodel to examine the interaction of fire severity, fire frequency, and natural regeneration to produce multicycle dynamics of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.), and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in a western Canadian boreal forest. We simulated 19 different scenarios in a factorial disturbance experiment of three severities and six frequencies and a no-disturbance scenario. Our simulations resulted in a wide diversity of boreal forest community types, including trembling aspen dominated mixedwoods with high-frequency (75 year), high-severity (100\\% mortality) fires, and nearly pure lodgepole pine stands at midfrequency (100-125 year) and high-severity fires. With the unvarying disturbance regimes we used, a variety of different but recurring temporal patterns emerged. We show that the loss of seed source legacies reinforces the disturbance-driven species dominance, demonstrating community inertia. This study provides a long-term perspective to boreal forest management that demonstrates the role of disturbance and legacies in long-term dynamics. © 2005 NRC.},\n\tnumber = {11},\n\tjournal = {Canadian Journal of Forest Research},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Duchesneau, Robin and Kimmins, J. P.},\n\tyear = {2005},\n\tnote = {15 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n16 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00017},\n\tpages = {2765--2773},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; and Hik, D. S.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Influences of chronic and current season grazing by collared pikas on above-ground biomass and species richness in subarctic alpine meadows.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Oecologia, 145(2): 288–97. 2005.\n 23 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 50 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00047 \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Influences$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_influences_2005,\n\ttitle = {Influences of chronic and current season grazing by collared pikas on above-ground biomass and species richness in subarctic alpine meadows.},\n\tvolume = {145},\n\tissn = {0029-8549},\n\turl = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15959819},\n\tdoi = {10.1007/s00442-005-0127-z},\n\tabstract = {We studied an alpine herbivory gradient established by collared pikas, a small central place foraging lagomorph, to examine the effects of multiple grazing levels on above-ground live biomass (AGB) and species richness (SR) in alpine tundra. The effects of within-season (four sampling periods), multi-season (across three summers) and longer-term dynamics (inferred from spatial location of vegetation with respect to pika haypiles) were examined. Along the grazing gradient, we found support for and against hypotheses that propose biphasic, increasing, or decreasing responses to herbivory, both in terms of AGB and SR. Our results suggest that plant-herbivore predictability is still weak. To further examine the impact of herbivory, we experimentally removed pikas using mesh exclosures placed at increasing distance from the edge of talus occupied by pikas. AGB after the second consecutive year of herbivore exclusion increased by 125\\% compared to control plots in highly grazed areas adjacent to talus ({\\textless}1 m). In more lightly grazed sites at distances 1-6 m from talus, AGB increased by more than 40\\% after pikas were removed. No differences were observed in the ungrazed sites {\\textgreater}6 m from talus. AGB was highest in meadow patches previously grazed by pikas compared to those with little grazing history, but this response was only observed after two seasons following release from herbivory. Grazed sites at distances of 1-6 m had the highest SR. These results indicate that multi-year measurements of growth are particularly relevant in ecosystems dominated by long-lived perennials in regions where productivity is low. Infrequent herbivore vacancies may provide local short-term release from pika grazing, thereby contributing to the persistence of productive, highly palatable vegetation.},\n\tnumber = {2},\n\tjournal = {Oecologia},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Hik, David S.},\n\tyear = {2005},\n\tpmid = {15959819},\n\tnote = {23 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n50 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00047 },\n\tkeywords = {Animals, Biodiversity, Biomass, Cold Climate, Feeding Behavior, Feeding Behavior: physiology, Folder - SAAS, Lagomorpha, Lagomorpha: physiology, Seasons},\n\tpages = {288--97},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2004\n \n \n (1)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Understanding natural disturbance boundary formation using spatial data and path analysis.\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Ecology, 85(7): 1933–1943. 2004.\n 26 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 38 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00035\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Understanding$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_understanding_2004,\n\ttitle = {Understanding natural disturbance boundary formation using spatial data and path analysis},\n\tvolume = {85},\n\tissn = {0012-9658},\n\turl = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1890/03-0579},\n\tdoi = {10.1890/03-0579},\n\tabstract = {Natural disturbance boundaries have fundamental influences on landscape function; however, quantitative examination of the factors influencing their formation has been limited. Boundary formation is the final component of a disturbance event trio (initiation, propagation, and cessation) and is least well understood. I examined the influences of five stand-level variables (tree age, tree density, basal area of susceptible trees, slope aspect, and slope angle) and space as a surrogate for the unmeasurable factors on standardized tree mortality (basal area dead/total basal area) using multiple causal path hypotheses with data from seven wildfire and 11 mountain pine beetle (MPB) boundaries in British Columbia, Canada. One hundred percent of fire sites and 91\\% of MPB sites showed strong support for a positive effect of the basal area of susceptible trees (as defined by their propensity to burn or to be attacked by MPB) on tree mortality (r = 0.21–0.81). In addition, seven of 11 MPB boundaries had mortality patterns that were affected only indirectly by the spatial location across the boundary. This indirect effect of space suggests that other unmeasured spatial factors were not responsible for the pattern of mortality. Thus, MPB dispersal limitation did not appear to be an important factor stopping the outbreaks at these seven sites. A population-based approach would be insufficient for understanding the location of the boundaries. On the other hand, mortality in all fire boundaries was directly affected by the spatial location across the boundary. In the context of multiple hypothesis testing of path models, this indicates that there was an important influence of spatially varying but unmodeled factors, such as weather and surface vegetation. Furthermore, path models that included other factors explicitly examined in this study (tree density, tree age, aspect, and slope) were rarely supported by the data, suggesting little contribution to boundary formation. These results demonstrate that the combined use of spatial plots, path analysis, and a priori multiple hypotheses can give important insight into the functioning of ecological processes.},\n\tnumber = {7},\n\tjournal = {Ecology},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B.},\n\tyear = {2004},\n\tnote = {26 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n38 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00035},\n\tkeywords = {Folder - NSERC Discovery 2011, Folder - SAAS},\n\tpages = {1933--1943},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n

\n Natural disturbance boundaries have fundamental influences on landscape function; however, quantitative examination of the factors influencing their formation has been limited. Boundary formation is the final component of a disturbance event trio (initiation, propagation, and cessation) and is least well understood. I examined the influences of five stand-level variables (tree age, tree density, basal area of susceptible trees, slope aspect, and slope angle) and space as a surrogate for the unmeasurable factors on standardized tree mortality (basal area dead/total basal area) using multiple causal path hypotheses with data from seven wildfire and 11 mountain pine beetle (MPB) boundaries in British Columbia, Canada. One hundred percent of fire sites and 91% of MPB sites showed strong support for a positive effect of the basal area of susceptible trees (as defined by their propensity to burn or to be attacked by MPB) on tree mortality (r = 0.21–0.81). In addition, seven of 11 MPB boundaries had mortality patterns that were affected only indirectly by the spatial location across the boundary. This indirect effect of space suggests that other unmeasured spatial factors were not responsible for the pattern of mortality. Thus, MPB dispersal limitation did not appear to be an important factor stopping the outbreaks at these seven sites. A population-based approach would be insufficient for understanding the location of the boundaries. On the other hand, mortality in all fire boundaries was directly affected by the spatial location across the boundary. In the context of multiple hypothesis testing of path models, this indicates that there was an important influence of spatially varying but unmodeled factors, such as weather and surface vegetation. Furthermore, path models that included other factors explicitly examined in this study (tree density, tree age, aspect, and slope) were rarely supported by the data, suggesting little contribution to boundary formation. These results demonstrate that the combined use of spatial plots, path analysis, and a priori multiple hypotheses can give important insight into the functioning of ecological processes.\n

\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n

\n \n 2002\n \n \n (2)\n \n \n

\n

\n \n \n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; and Hik, D. S.\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n Grazing history versus current grazing: leaf demography and compensatory growth of three alpine plants in response to a native herbivore (Ochotona collaris).\n \n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n Journal of Ecology, 90(2): 348–359. 2002.\n 35 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 51 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00062\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n \n $\"Grazing$ Paper\n \n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_grazing_2002,\n\ttitle = {Grazing history versus current grazing: leaf demography and compensatory growth of three alpine plants in response to a native herbivore ({Ochotona} collaris)},\n\tvolume = {90},\n\tissn = {0022-0477},\n\tshorttitle = {Grazing history versus current grazing},\n\turl = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1046/j.1365-2745.2001.00672.x},\n\tdoi = {10.1046/j.1365-2745.2001.00672.x},\n\tabstract = {1We measured leaf births, leaf deaths and leaf length of three alpine perennial species, Kobresia myosuroides, Erigeron humilis and Oxytropis nigrescens, from sites with different grazing histories (strong or weak) in response to two levels of current season grazing (present or absent) by collared pikas (Ochotona collaris), a small lagomorph, in the south-west Yukon. 2All three species appeared to tolerate the removal of 58201361\\% of summer leaf production under natural conditions. Grazing history, which was defined by the location of plants located either \\&lt; 2 m or \\&gt; 6 m from boulderfields with a history of occupation by pikas, was the most significant factor determining shifts in leaf births and leaf deaths following herbivory. 3The only detectable influence of current season herbivory for any measured species was a reduction of leaf length of Kobresia. 4A comparison of historically grazed with historically ungrazed plants indicated several changes in leaf demography and morphology. Kobresia leaves were generally shorter and had higher rates of production of new leaves. Oxytropis had higher rates of new leaf production. Erigeron had fewer leaf births throughout the summer, but showed a large and highly significant delay in the timing of leaf senescence. 5These responses can be largely understood as strategies to avoid the predictable intensive late season foraging that is characteristic of pikas. Morphological mechanisms allow these species to tolerate and, more importantly for the herbivore, persist under heavy and chronic grazing."},\n\tnumber = {2},\n\tjournal = {Journal of Ecology},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Hik, David S.},\n\tyear = {2002},\n\tnote = {35 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n51 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00062},\n\tkeywords = {Alpine meadows, Collared pika, Erigeron humilis, Grazing history, Herbivory gradient, Kobresia myosuroides, Ochotona collaris, Oxytropis nigrescens},\n\tpages = {348--359},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n

\n \n\n \n \n McIntire, E. J. B.; and Waterway, M J\n\n\n \n \n \n \n Clonal structure and hybrid susceptibility to a smut pathogen in microscale hybrid zones of northern wetland Carex (Cyperaceae).\n \n \n \n\n\n \n\n\n\n American Journal of Botany, 89(4): 642–654. 2002.\n 9 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10] 11 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19] 00007 \n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n \n\n \n \n doi\n \n \n\n \n link\n \n \n\n bibtex\n \n\n \n \n \n abstract \n \n\n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n

\n

@article{mcintire_clonal_2002,\n\ttitle = {Clonal structure and hybrid susceptibility to a smut pathogen in microscale hybrid zones of northern wetland {Carex} ({Cyperaceae})},\n\tvolume = {89},\n\tissn = {0002-9122},\n\tdoi = {10.3732/ajb.89.4.642},\n\tabstract = {Interspecific hybrid taxa, especially those with the potential for clonal spread, may play important roles in community dynamics and plant–pathogen interactions. This study combines the mapping of clonal structure for two rhizomatous sedges (Carex limosa, C. rariflora) and their nearly sterile interspecific hybrid with an investigation of the relationship between these taxa and a nonsystemic floral smut pathogen (Anthracoidea limosa) in six subarctic fens in Nouveau-Que ´bec, Canada. We used allozyme polymorphisms in 14 of 18 putative loci to confirm hybrid identification and to distinguish among genotypes for mapping. The incidence of A. limosa was 5–20 times greater on hybrids than on parental taxa across all sites at two spatial scales (intensive extent ? 10.5 m2 , extensive extent ? entire fens). Spatial autocorrelation was detected in smut incidence; however, its statistical removal did not alter the strong association between hybrids and smut infection. Smut incidence on both C. limosa and hybrids was greater when they were growing in areas of high hybrid density. Our study provides evidence that disease can help maintain boundaries between species. We suggest explanations for hybrid susceptibility and provide evidence for a model in which hybrids act as a source for reinfection for all three taxa during subsequent years.},\n\tnumber = {4},\n\tjournal = {American Journal of Botany},\n\tauthor = {McIntire, Eliot J. B. and Waterway, M J},\n\tyear = {2002},\n\tpmid = {21665665},\n\tnote = {9 citations (Crossref) [2024-01-10]\n11 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2023-09-19]\n00007 },\n\tkeywords = {allozymes, anthracoidea limosa, bridization, carex limosa, carex rariflora, clonal growth, environmental heterogeneity, hy-, hybrid plant taxa suggest, interactions between plants and, play important roles in, recent detailed studies of, spatial autocorrelation, that they, their},\n\tpages = {642--654},\n}\n\n

\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n