@misc{adjemian2013solving,
  title={Solving the Commodity Markets' Non-Convergence Puzzle},
  author={Adjemian, Michael and Garcia, Philip and Irwin, Scott and \uline{Smith}, Aaron},
	url={https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2013/august/solving-the-commodity-markets-non-convergence-puzzle/},
	howpublished={Amber Waves},
  number={7},
	keywords={commodities},
  year={2013},
	abstract={From 2005 to 2010, the price of expiring U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat futures contracts settled much higher than corresponding delivery market cash prices. Sustained non-convergence between cash and settled futures prices can make hedging less effective, send confusing signals to the market, threaten the viability of a contract, and ultimately lead to a misallocation of agricultural resources. Study findings show that the observed non-convergence was an unintended consequence of market design: the process by which futures contracts were terminated allowed the futures and cash prices to diverge.},
  publisher={United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service},
	addendum={\textbf{Winner of Quality of Communication Award, AAEA, 2014}}
}

From 2005 to 2010, the price of expiring U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat futures contracts settled much higher than corresponding delivery market cash prices. Sustained non-convergence between cash and settled futures prices can make hedging less effective, send confusing signals to the market, threaten the viability of a contract, and ultimately lead to a misallocation of agricultural resources. Study findings show that the observed non-convergence was an unintended consequence of market design: the process by which futures contracts were terminated allowed the futures and cash prices to diverge.

@misc{smith2023rice,
  title={California Rice Rebounds After a Brutal 2022},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={27},
  number={1},
  pages={5-7},
	abstract={In 2022, California rice farmers planted half the number of acres they had planted in 2020. Rice acreage had not been that low since 1958. Acreage has rebounded this year, returning to its 2020 level. Rice acreage dropped in 2022 because of a lack of water stemming from a multi-year drought. Surface water deliveries from the Sacramento River were severely curtailed. Multiple storms this past winter restored the flow of the Sacramento River. Rice growers were thus able to return to normal activities in 2023.},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1699294156/20849/},
  year={2023}
}

In 2022, California rice farmers planted half the number of acres they had planted in 2020. Rice acreage had not been that low since 1958. Acreage has rebounded this year, returning to its 2020 level. Rice acreage dropped in 2022 because of a lack of water stemming from a multi-year drought. Surface water deliveries from the Sacramento River were severely curtailed. Multiple storms this past winter restored the flow of the Sacramento River. Rice growers were thus able to return to normal activities in 2023.

@misc{smith2023russia,
  title={How Did Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Affect Global Food Supplies?},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Choices},
  volume={},
  number={},
  pages={},
	abstract={On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, inflicting horrific violence on the Ukrainian people and capturing the attention of the world. The war has disrupted food supplies to people in Ukraine and to refugees who have fled to neighboring countries. I argue that the invasion’s effects on global food commodity markets were large but not historic. Prices have been high since the invasion, but mostly because they had increased substantially in the 18 months before to the invasion.},
	url={ https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/turmoil-in-global-food-agricultural-and--input-markets-implications-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/how-did-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-affect-global-food-supplies},
  year={2023}
}

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, inflicting horrific violence on the Ukrainian people and capturing the attention of the world. The war has disrupted food supplies to people in Ukraine and to refugees who have fled to neighboring countries. I argue that the invasion’s effects on global food commodity markets were large but not historic. Prices have been high since the invasion, but mostly because they had increased substantially in the 18 months before to the invasion.

@misc{smith2022canfarmers,
  title={Can Farmers Reverse Climate Change Through Carbon Farming?},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={American Enterprise Institute, Monthly Harvest},
  pages={},
	url={https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/can-farmers-reverse-climate-change-through-carbon-farming/},
  year={2022}
}

@misc{smith2022fertilizer,
  title={The Story of Rising Fertilizer Prices},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={25},
  number={3},
  pages={1-4},
	abstract={High fertilizer prices in the past year have increased costs for farmers, but for some crops more than others. Multiple potential causes could explain these price increases, stemming from both supply and demand factors. If farmers respond to high prices by using less fertilizer per acre, it will provide an environmental benefit in the form of less nitrogen and phosphorus in streams, rivers, and lakes.},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1645718591/20318/},
  year={2022}
}

High fertilizer prices in the past year have increased costs for farmers, but for some crops more than others. Multiple potential causes could explain these price increases, stemming from both supply and demand factors. If farmers respond to high prices by using less fertilizer per acre, it will provide an environmental benefit in the form of less nitrogen and phosphorus in streams, rivers, and lakes.

@misc{smith2022e15,
  title={Allowing E15 fuel year-round won’t increase sales very much, but it’s a symbolic victory for corn ethanol advocates},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={The Conversation},
  volume={},
  number={},
  pages={},
	url={https://theconversation.com/allowing-e15-fuel-year-round-wont-increase-sales-very-much-but-its-a-symbolic-victory-for-corn-ethanol-advocates-181394},
  year={2022}
}

@misc{smith2021covid,
  title={COVID-19 Relief Programs Have Kept U.S. Farm Income High but Shortchanged California Producers},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={24},
  number={3},
  pages={5-8},
	abstract={Since 1950, the only years with higher real net farm income than 2020 were 1973–74 and 2011–14. This high income was facilitated by two waves of COVID-19 relief payments totaling 23.8 billion dollars. A third wave is set to occur in 2021. Most of these payments were determined by seemingly arbitrary formulas and were only weakly tied to pandemic-induced losses. Corn, soybeans, cattle, and milk are the four largest value commodities in the country and they received a disproportionately large share of payments. Specialty crops and dairy, which California specializes in, received some support, but much less as a percent of gross farm income. Congress has allocated a further 13 billion dollars to farmers for COVID-19 relief, most of which is slated to go to the major row crops, livestock, and biofuels.},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1613691580/19988/},
  year={2021}
}

Since 1950, the only years with higher real net farm income than 2020 were 1973–74 and 2011–14. This high income was facilitated by two waves of COVID-19 relief payments totaling 23.8 billion dollars. A third wave is set to occur in 2021. Most of these payments were determined by seemingly arbitrary formulas and were only weakly tied to pandemic-induced losses. Corn, soybeans, cattle, and milk are the four largest value commodities in the country and they received a disproportionately large share of payments. Specialty crops and dairy, which California specializes in, received some support, but much less as a percent of gross farm income. Congress has allocated a further 13 billion dollars to farmers for COVID-19 relief, most of which is slated to go to the major row crops, livestock, and biofuels.

@misc{smith2018battle,
  title={Will Battle Between `Big Corn' And `Big Oil' Stall Next Generation Biofuels?},
  author={Smith, Aaron and Smith, Vince},
  howpublished={Investor's Business Daily},
  pages={},
	url={https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/battle-between-big-corn-and-big-oil-could-stall-next-generation-biofuels/},
  year={2018}
}

@misc{smith2017reform,
  title={Time to Reform Renewable Fuel Policies for the Public Interest},
  author={Smith, Aaron and Smith, Vince},
  howpublished={The Hill},
  pages={},
	url={https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/366423-time-to-reform-renewable-fuel-policies-for-the-public-interest},
  year={2017}
}

@misc{smith2017biofuels,
  title={Biofuels, the Renewable Fuel Standard, and the Farm Bill},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={American Enterprise Institute},
  pages={},
	url={https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/biofuels-the-renewable-fuel-standard-and-the-farm-bill/},
  year={2017}
}

@misc{smith2016biofuel,
  title={Biofuel Policies: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={19},
  number={3},
  pages={1-4},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2016/19/3/biofuel-policies-robbing-peter-to-pay-paul/},
	abstract={Policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions from transportation have hit major obstacles in the past few years. In effect, these policies take money from petroleum producers and give it to renewable fuel producers, creating heated political and legal battles but little effect on consumers.},
  year={2016}
}

Policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions from transportation have hit major obstacles in the past few years. In effect, these policies take money from petroleum producers and give it to renewable fuel producers, creating heated political and legal battles but little effect on consumers.

@misc{smith2014biofuel,
  title={Biofuels Policy in Limbo},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={18},
  number={2},
  pages={1-4},
	abstract={Federal legislation requires increasing quantities of biofuel to be blended into the fuel supply, but the EPA is vacillating on whether it will enforce this mandate. Biofuel mandates are an expensive way to reduce carbon emissions. The EPA's indecisiveness makes them even more expensive.},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2014/18/2/biofuels-policy-in-limbo/},
  year={2014}
}

Federal legislation requires increasing quantities of biofuel to be blended into the fuel supply, but the EPA is vacillating on whether it will enforce this mandate. Biofuel mandates are an expensive way to reduce carbon emissions. The EPA's indecisiveness makes them even more expensive.

@misc{smith2012giving,
  title={Giving an Inch and Keeping a Mile: Why the Corn Lobby Let the Ethanol Tax Credit Expire},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={15},
  number={5},
  pages={1-4},
	abstract={Ten percent of motor gasoline in the United States is comprised of ethanol produced from corn. This production level is required by law, a requirement that confers large benefits on corn producers by keeping corn demand and prices high. In comparison, the recently expired ethanol tax credit was a small perk.},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2012/15/5/giving-inch-and-keeping-m/},
  year={2012}
}

Ten percent of motor gasoline in the United States is comprised of ethanol produced from corn. This production level is required by law, a requirement that confers large benefits on corn producers by keeping corn demand and prices high. In comparison, the recently expired ethanol tax credit was a small perk.

@misc{abusneneh2012gasoline,
  title={Do Gasoline Prices Account for Ethanol's Lower Energy Content?},
  author={Abu-Sneneh, Firas and Carter, Colin and Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={16},
  number={2},
  pages={1-4},
	abstract={U.S. law effectively mandates that retail gasoline must contain at least 10\% ethanol. This artificial demand for ethanol drives up the price of corn, harming livestock operations and global food consumers. Recently, the U.S. government determined that short-term removal of the mandate would have no measurable impact on ethanol demand and, therefore, no impact on corn prices. If true, this ruling suggests motorists may be paying the same retail price for ethanol as gasoline, even though ethanol lowers fuel economy.},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2012/16/2/do-gasoline-prices-accoun/},
  year={2012}
}

U.S. law effectively mandates that retail gasoline must contain at least 10% ethanol. This artificial demand for ethanol drives up the price of corn, harming livestock operations and global food consumers. Recently, the U.S. government determined that short-term removal of the mandate would have no measurable impact on ethanol demand and, therefore, no impact on corn prices. If true, this ruling suggests motorists may be paying the same retail price for ethanol as gasoline, even though ethanol lowers fuel economy.

@misc{abusneneh2012comment,
  title={Comment on Request for a Waiver of the Renewable Fuels Standard},
  author={Abu-Sneneh, Firas and Carter, Colin and Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={EPA Docket ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2012-0632},
  pages={},
	url={https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EPA-HQ-OAR-2012-0632-2245},
  year={2012}
}

@misc{knittel2012blame,
  title={Don't Blame It on the Rain: The Ethanol Mandate Is a Bad Idea in Any Year},
  author={Knittel, Christopher and Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Huffington Post},
  pages={},
	url={https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ethanol-mandate-crisis_b_1833609},
  year={2012}
}

@misc{dewit2008price,
  title={What is the Price of Oil?},
  author={de Wit, Joeri and Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={11},
  number={5},
  pages={1-4},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2008/11/5/what-is-the-price-of-oil/},
  abstract={A quoted price for a commodity such as oil is specific to a particular location at a particular time. This article describes how the crude oil prices reported in the media relate to world oil prices and local gasoline prices.},
	year={2008}
}

A quoted price for a commodity such as oil is specific to a particular location at a particular time. This article describes how the crude oil prices reported in the media relate to world oil prices and local gasoline prices.

@misc{carter2008causes,
  title={The Food Price Boom and Bust},
  author={Carter, C and Rausser, G and Smith, A},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={12},
  number={2},
  pages={2-4},
	abstract={Food commodity prices soared between September 2007 and mid-2008, then fell just as sharply. Macroeconomic factors likely underlie this boom and bust, but biofuel and trade policies continue to hold corn, soybean, and rice prices at approximately double their 2005 levels.},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2008/12/2/the-food-price-boom-and-b/},
  year={2008}
}

Food commodity prices soared between September 2007 and mid-2008, then fell just as sharply. Macroeconomic factors likely underlie this boom and bust, but biofuel and trade policies continue to hold corn, soybean, and rice prices at approximately double their 2005 levels.

@misc{smith2012children,
  title={Children of the Corn: The Renewable Fuels Disaster},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={American Enterprise Institute},
  pages={},
	url={https://www.aei.org/articles/children-of-the-corn-the-renewable-fuels-disaster/},
  year={2008}
}

@misc{smith2008commodity,
  title={Commodity Futures: Exploring Price Determination and Volatility},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={GARP Risk Review},
  pages={},
	url={},
  year={2008}
}

@misc{smith2005internet,
  title={Does the Internet Increase Farm Profits?},
  author={Smith, Aaron and Morrison Paul, Catherine},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={9},
  number={2},
  pages={5-8},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2005/9/2/does-the-internet-increas/},
  abstract={Half of California farms have Internet access and 38 percent use a computer in their business. Using results from a farm-level survey, we find that most farmers who use the Internet for business purposes perceive small, if any, financial payoffs from the Internet.},
	year={2005}
}

Half of California farms have Internet access and 38 percent use a computer in their business. Using results from a farm-level survey, we find that most farmers who use the Internet for business purposes perceive small, if any, financial payoffs from the Internet.

@misc{smith2004cottom,
  title={New Hedging Techniques to Reduce Cotton Price Risk},
  author={Smith, Aaron},
  howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
  volume={8},
  number={1},
  pages={1-3},
	url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2004/8/1/new-hedging-techniques-to/},
  abstract={The futures market provides an effective medium for mitigating price risk, but it sometimes functions imperfectly. This article illuminates these market imperfections and shows how to reduce price risk by avoiding them.},
	year={2004}
}

The futures market provides an effective medium for mitigating price risk, but it sometimes functions imperfectly. This article illuminates these market imperfections and shows how to reduce price risk by avoiding them.