var bibbase_data = {"data":"<img src=\"//bibbase.org/img/ajax-loader.gif\" id=\"spinner\"\n  style=\"display: none;\" alt=\"Loading..\" />\n\n<div id=\"bibbase\">\n\n  <script type=\"text/javascript\">\n    var bibbase = {\n      params: {\"bib\":\"https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/7hww6e1hho3lgha/wp.bib?dl=1\",\"jsonp\":\"1\",\"theme\":\"side\",\"filter\":\"type:article\",\"host\":\"bibbase.org\"},\n      data: [{\"bibtype\":\"article\",\"type\":\"article\",\"title\":\"Pass-Through of Alternative Fuel Policy Incentives: Evidence from Diesel and Biodiesel Markets, the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, and Low Carbon Fuel Standards in California and Oregon\",\"author\":[{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Mazzone\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Daniel\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Smith\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Aaron\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Witcover\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Julie\"],\"suffixes\":[]}],\"url\":\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/NCST_Pass_Through.pdf\",\"abstract\":\"Biodiesel and hydrotreated renewable diesel (RD)—or collectively biomass-based diesel (BBD)—have become integral components of compliance with policies aiming to reduce U.S. transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. Such policies include the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and Oregon’s Clean Fuel Program (CFP). These policies, along with a federal Blender’s BBD Tax Credit (BTC), provide financial incentives for BBD. In this white paper, we study pass-through of implicit taxes and subsidies, introduced by federal and state policies, to a variety of diesel and soy biodiesel fuel prices in the context of the U.S. diesel sector, focusing on fossil diesel and soy biodiesel. We apply time series methods techniques to estimate how a variety of diesel fuel price spreads across the country and in California and Oregon responds to changes in the implicit taxes placed on petroleum diesel and the implicit subsidies awarded to biodiesel. The results presented in this paper point to some inefficiencies in the RFS, LCFS, and CFP. The primary contribution of this paper was providing the first set of estimates of pass-through of LCFS implicit taxes and subsidies, and doing so for the diesel sector, a critical player in LCFS compliance.\",\"keywords\":\"energy\",\"year\":\"2022\",\"bibtex\":\"@article{alexander2022AIethics,\\r\\n  title={Pass-Through of Alternative Fuel Policy Incentives: Evidence from Diesel and Biodiesel Markets, the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, and Low Carbon Fuel Standards in California and Oregon},\\r\\n  author={Mazzone, Daniel and Smith, Aaron and Witcover, Julie},\\r\\n\\turl={https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/NCST_Pass_Through.pdf},\\r\\n\\tabstract={Biodiesel and hydrotreated renewable diesel (RD)—or collectively biomass-based diesel (BBD)—have become integral components of compliance with policies aiming to reduce U.S. transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. Such policies include the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and Oregon’s Clean Fuel Program (CFP). These policies, along with a federal Blender’s BBD Tax Credit (BTC), provide financial incentives for BBD. In this white paper, we study pass-through of implicit taxes and subsidies, introduced by federal and state policies, to a variety of diesel and soy biodiesel fuel prices in the context of the U.S. diesel sector, focusing on fossil diesel and soy biodiesel. We apply time series methods techniques to estimate how a variety of diesel fuel price spreads across the country and in California and Oregon responds to changes in the implicit taxes placed on petroleum diesel and the implicit subsidies awarded to biodiesel. The results presented in this paper point to some inefficiencies in the RFS, LCFS, and CFP. The primary contribution of this paper was providing the first set of estimates of pass-through of LCFS implicit taxes and subsidies, and doing so for the diesel sector, a critical player in LCFS compliance.},\\r\\n\\tkeywords={energy},\\r\\n  year={2022}\\r\\n}\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"author_short\":[\"Mazzone, D.\",\"Smith, A.\",\"Witcover, J.\"],\"key\":\"alexander2022AIethics\",\"id\":\"alexander2022AIethics\",\"bibbaseid\":\"mazzone-smith-witcover-passthroughofalternativefuelpolicyincentivesevidencefromdieselandbiodieselmarketstheusrenewablefuelstandardandlowcarbonfuelstandardsincaliforniaandoregon-2022\",\"role\":\"author\",\"urls\":{\"Paper\":\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/NCST_Pass_Through.pdf\"},\"keyword\":[\"energy\"],\"metadata\":{\"authorlinks\":{}},\"html\":\"\"},{\"bibtype\":\"article\",\"type\":\"article\",\"title\":\"Who is Responsible for ‘Responsible AI’?: Navigating Challenges to Build Trust in AI Agriculture and Food System Technology Research\",\"author\":[{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Alexander\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Carrie\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Yarborough\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Mark\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Smith\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Aaron\"],\"suffixes\":[]}],\"url\":\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/who_is_responsible_for_responsible_ai_revised.pdf\",\"abstract\":\"This article presents findings from interviews that were conducted with agriculture and food system researchers to understand their views about what it means to conduct `responsible' or `trustworthy' Artificial Intelligence research and the challenges they face in meeting conflicting ethical standards in the rapidly-changing field of research that is helping to develop AI-based food technologies, as well as analysis of these findings that was informed by a broad spectrum of academic work that pertains to technological innovation and oversight. Interviewees reported several key themes and challenges. First, they expressed concerns regarding whether sufficient governance of commercial AI is sufficient to prevent low-quality technologies from discrediting these methods among farmers and food producers, while simultaneously expressing worries about restrictive or disconnected governance of academic research that they worried could delay the development of higher-quality technologies based on validated data that would potentially facilitate better outcomes. Second, interviews highlighted ethical and legal gray areas that pose a significant challenge for both academic and commercial AI research and development. The academic literature describes how current laws and ethics codes give contradictory guidance, and often fail to address crucial ethical issues, which reinforces the cogency of these gray areas of concern to interviewees. Both scholarship and history show that standards are open to a wide array of interpretations by parties with conflicting interests. The interviews and analysis suggest these issues make it more challenging for academic researchers to persuade farmers and food producers to trust their research. Researchers must negotiate from a middle ground between funders and food system partners to decide which interests and ethical standards and interpretations will be prioritized.\",\"keywords\":\"agriculture\",\"year\":\"2022\",\"bibtex\":\"@article{alexander2022AIethics,\\r\\n  title={Who is Responsible for ‘Responsible AI’?: Navigating Challenges to Build Trust in AI Agriculture and Food System Technology Research},\\r\\n  author={Alexander, Carrie and Yarborough, Mark and Smith, Aaron},\\r\\n\\turl={https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/who_is_responsible_for_responsible_ai_revised.pdf},\\r\\n\\tabstract={This article presents findings from interviews that were conducted with agriculture and food system researchers to understand their views about what it means to conduct `responsible' or `trustworthy' Artificial Intelligence research and the challenges they face in meeting conflicting ethical standards in the rapidly-changing field of research that is helping to develop AI-based food technologies, as well as analysis of these findings that was informed by a broad spectrum of academic work that pertains to technological innovation and oversight. Interviewees reported several key themes and challenges. First, they expressed concerns regarding whether sufficient governance of commercial AI is sufficient to prevent low-quality technologies from discrediting these methods among farmers and food producers, while simultaneously expressing worries about restrictive or disconnected governance of academic research that they worried could delay the development of higher-quality technologies based on validated data that would potentially facilitate better outcomes. Second, interviews highlighted ethical and legal gray areas that pose a significant challenge for both academic and commercial AI research and development. The academic literature describes how current laws and ethics codes give contradictory guidance, and often fail to address crucial ethical issues, which reinforces the cogency of these gray areas of concern to interviewees. Both scholarship and history show that standards are open to a wide array of interpretations by parties with conflicting interests. The interviews and analysis suggest these issues make it more challenging for academic researchers to persuade farmers and food producers to trust their research. Researchers must negotiate from a middle ground between funders and food system partners to decide which interests and ethical standards and interpretations will be prioritized.},\\r\\n\\tkeywords={agriculture},\\r\\n  year={2022}\\r\\n}\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"author_short\":[\"Alexander, C.\",\"Yarborough, M.\",\"Smith, A.\"],\"key\":\"alexander2022AIethics-1\",\"id\":\"alexander2022AIethics-1\",\"bibbaseid\":\"alexander-yarborough-smith-whoisresponsibleforresponsibleainavigatingchallengestobuildtrustinaiagricultureandfoodsystemtechnologyresearch-2022\",\"role\":\"author\",\"urls\":{\"Paper\":\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/who_is_responsible_for_responsible_ai_revised.pdf\"},\"keyword\":[\"agriculture\"],\"metadata\":{\"authorlinks\":{}},\"html\":\"\"},{\"bibtype\":\"article\",\"type\":\"article\",\"title\":\"Agriculture's Nitrogen Legacy\",\"author\":[{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Metaxogolou\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Konstantinos\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Smith\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Aaron\"],\"suffixes\":[]}],\"url\":\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_legacy.pdf\",\"abstract\":\"Nitrogen pollution of waterways is a large global problem, especially in regions with intensive cropland agriculture such as the Mississippi River Basin that drains 40% of the continental United States. In contrast to prior studies, which mostly apply agronomic and hydrologic models, we collect detailed data from water quality monitors and use panel data econometric methods to estimate how land use affects nitrogen pollution. We find a strong positive effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in nearby streams and rivers that is an order of magnitude smaller than those implied by the agronomic and hydrologic models. Our findings are consistent with a new line of research documenting accumulation of large amounts of nitrogen in subsurface soil and groundwater over several decades; this is excess nitrogen that was applied to fields but has yet to appear in waterways. This legacy nitrogen will eventually leach into streams and rivers exacerbating further nutrient pollution. In the presence of large amounts of legacy nitrogen, land retirement and other on-farm mitigation policies are uneconomic. Downstream off-farm practices, such as the creation and restoration of fluvial wetlands, which can remove both legacy and new nitrogen, however, are cost-effective.\",\"keywords\":\"agriculture\",\"year\":\"2022\",\"bibtex\":\"@article{metaxogolou2022waterlegacy,\\r\\n  title={Agriculture's Nitrogen Legacy},\\r\\n  author={Metaxogolou, Konstantinos and Smith, Aaron},\\r\\n\\turl={https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_legacy.pdf},\\r\\n\\tabstract={Nitrogen pollution of waterways is a large global problem, especially in regions with intensive cropland agriculture such as the Mississippi River Basin that drains 40\\\\% of the continental United States. In contrast to prior studies, which mostly apply agronomic and hydrologic models, we collect detailed data from water quality monitors and use panel data econometric methods to estimate how land use affects nitrogen pollution. We find a strong positive effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in nearby streams and rivers that is an order of magnitude smaller than those implied by the agronomic and hydrologic models. Our findings are consistent with a new line of research documenting accumulation of large amounts of nitrogen in subsurface soil and groundwater over several decades; this is excess nitrogen that was applied to fields but has yet to appear in waterways. This legacy nitrogen will eventually leach into streams and rivers exacerbating further nutrient pollution. In the presence of large amounts of legacy nitrogen, land retirement and other on-farm mitigation policies are uneconomic. Downstream off-farm practices, such as the creation and restoration of fluvial wetlands, which can remove both legacy and new nitrogen, however, are cost-effective.},\\r\\n\\tkeywords={agriculture},\\r\\n  year={2022}\\r\\n}\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"author_short\":[\"Metaxogolou, K.\",\"Smith, A.\"],\"key\":\"metaxogolou2022waterlegacy\",\"id\":\"metaxogolou2022waterlegacy\",\"bibbaseid\":\"metaxogolou-smith-agriculturesnitrogenlegacy-2022\",\"role\":\"author\",\"urls\":{\"Paper\":\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_legacy.pdf\"},\"keyword\":[\"agriculture\"],\"metadata\":{\"authorlinks\":{}},\"html\":\"\"},{\"bibtype\":\"article\",\"type\":\"article\",\"title\":\"Nutrient Pollution and U.S. Agriculture: Causal Effects, Integrated Assessment, and Implications of Climate Change\",\"author\":[{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Metaxogolou\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Konstantinos\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Smith\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Aaron\"],\"suffixes\":[]}],\"url\":\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_climate.pdf\",\"abstract\":\"We study the relationship between water nutrient pollution and U.S. agriculture using data between the early 1970s and late 2010s. We estimate a positive causal effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in the country’s water bodies using alternative empirical approaches. We find that a 10% increase in corn acreage causes an increase in nitrogen concentration in water by at least 1% and show that the magnitude of the acreage effect increases with precipitation but not with extreme temperature. Based on the average streamflow of the Mississippi River at the Gulf of Mexico during this period and damages of about 16 dollars per kilogram of nitrogen, this 1% increase in average nitrogen concentration implies an annual external cost of 800 million dollars. We also report the results of additional integrated-assessment type of exercises aimed to inform policy makers, and we use recent climate models to project the implications of climate change on the magnitude of the estimated effects. We estimate that climate change will not materially change the relationship between corn acreage and nitrogen concentration in waterways.\",\"keywords\":\"agriculture\",\"year\":\"2022\",\"bibtex\":\"@article{metaxogolou2022waterclimate,\\r\\n  title={Nutrient Pollution and U.S. Agriculture: Causal Effects, Integrated Assessment, and Implications of Climate Change},\\r\\n  author={Metaxogolou, Konstantinos and Smith, Aaron},\\r\\n\\turl={https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_climate.pdf},\\r\\n\\tabstract={We study the relationship between water nutrient pollution and U.S. agriculture using data between the early 1970s and late 2010s. We estimate a positive causal effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in the country’s water bodies using alternative empirical approaches. We find that a 10\\\\% increase in corn acreage causes an increase in nitrogen concentration in water by at least 1\\\\% and show that the magnitude of the acreage effect increases with precipitation but not with extreme temperature. Based on the average streamflow of the Mississippi River at the Gulf of Mexico during this period and damages of about 16 dollars per kilogram of nitrogen, this 1\\\\% increase in average nitrogen concentration implies an annual external cost of 800 million dollars. We also report the results of additional integrated-assessment type of exercises aimed to inform policy makers, and we use recent climate models to project the implications of climate change on the magnitude of the estimated effects. We estimate that climate change will not materially change the relationship between corn acreage and nitrogen concentration in waterways.},\\r\\n\\tkeywords={agriculture},\\r\\n  year={2022}\\r\\n}\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"author_short\":[\"Metaxogolou, K.\",\"Smith, A.\"],\"key\":\"metaxogolou2022waterclimate\",\"id\":\"metaxogolou2022waterclimate\",\"bibbaseid\":\"metaxogolou-smith-nutrientpollutionandusagriculturecausaleffectsintegratedassessmentandimplicationsofclimatechange-2022\",\"role\":\"author\",\"urls\":{\"Paper\":\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_climate.pdf\"},\"keyword\":[\"agriculture\"],\"metadata\":{\"authorlinks\":{}},\"html\":\"\"},{\"bibtype\":\"article\",\"type\":\"article\",\"title\":\"RIN Pass-Through at Gasoline Terminals\",\"author\":[{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Pouliot\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Sebastien\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Smith\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Aaron\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Stock\"],\"firstnames\":[\"James\",\"H\"],\"suffixes\":[]}],\"url\":\"https://www.dropbox.com/s/52yzs17hksxe0z9/Pass-through_Latest.pdf?dl=1\",\"abstract\":\"Wholesale suppliers at fuel terminals blend gasoline with ethanol to create finished gasoline. Under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), this blending activity is subsidized through a renewable fuel credit, known as a RIN. We estimate whether these suppliers, known as rack sellers, pass through the value of RINS. We find complete pass through in some locations and settings and not others. We argue that the incomplete pass-through we find stems from lack of salience about how the subsidy affects rack margins. If rack sellers have price-setting power in the RIN market, which is plausible, then the incomplete pass through we find creates an incentive for them to drive up RIN prices thereby raising compliance costs.\",\"keywords\":\"energy\",\"year\":\"2017\",\"bibtex\":\"@article{pouliot2017rin,\\r\\n  title={RIN Pass-Through at Gasoline Terminals},\\r\\n  author={Pouliot, Sebastien and Smith, Aaron and Stock, James H},\\r\\n\\turl={https://www.dropbox.com/s/52yzs17hksxe0z9/Pass-through_Latest.pdf?dl=1},\\r\\n\\tabstract={Wholesale suppliers at fuel terminals blend gasoline with ethanol to create finished gasoline. Under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), this blending activity is subsidized through a renewable fuel credit, known as a RIN. We estimate whether these suppliers, known as rack sellers, pass through the value of RINS. We find complete pass through in some locations and settings and not others. We argue that the incomplete pass-through we find stems from lack of salience about how the subsidy affects rack margins. If rack sellers have price-setting power in the RIN market, which is plausible, then the incomplete pass through we find creates an incentive for them to drive up RIN prices thereby raising compliance costs.},\\r\\n\\tkeywords={energy},\\r\\n  year={2017}\\r\\n}\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"author_short\":[\"Pouliot, S.\",\"Smith, A.\",\"Stock, J. H\"],\"key\":\"pouliot2017rin\",\"id\":\"pouliot2017rin\",\"bibbaseid\":\"pouliot-smith-stock-rinpassthroughatgasolineterminals-2017\",\"role\":\"author\",\"urls\":{\"Paper\":\"https://www.dropbox.com/s/52yzs17hksxe0z9/Pass-through_Latest.pdf?dl=1\"},\"keyword\":[\"energy\"],\"metadata\":{\"authorlinks\":{\"smith, a\":\"https://asmith.ucdavis.edu/\"}},\"html\":\"\"},{\"bibtype\":\"article\",\"type\":\"article\",\"title\":\"Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030\",\"author\":[{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Bushnell\"],\"firstnames\":[\"James\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Mazzone\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Daniel\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Smith\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Aaron\"],\"suffixes\":[]},{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Witcover\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Julie\"],\"suffixes\":[]}],\"keywords\":\"energy\",\"url\":\"https://www.ucits.org/research-project/using-low-carbon-fuel-standard-credits-to-support-low-carbon-fuel-infrastructure-policy-design-issues-and-impacts/\",\"abstract\":\"California's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) specifies that the state’s transportation fuel supply achieve a 20% reduction in carbon intensity (CI) below 2011 levels by 2030. Reaching the standard will require substantive changes in the fuel mix, but the specifics and the cost of these changes are uncertain. We assess if and how California is likely to achieve the standard, and the likely impact of infrastructure credits on this compliance outlook. We begin by projecting a distribution of fuel and vehicle miles demand under business-as-usual economic and policy variation and transform those projections into a distribution of LCFS net deficits for the entire period from 2019 through 2030. We then construct a variety of scenarios characterizing LCFS credit supply that consider different assumptions regarding input markets, technological adoption over the compliance period, and the efficacy of complementary policies. In our baseline scenario for credit generation, LCFS compliance would require that between 60% and 80% of the diesel pool be produced from biomass. Our baseline projections have the number of electric vehicles reaching 1.3 million by 2030, but if the number of electric vehicles reaches Governor Jerry Brown’s goal of 5 million by 2030, then LCFS compliance would require substantially less biomass-based diesel. Outside of rapid zero emission vehicle penetration, compliance in 2030 with the $200 credit price may be much more difficult. New mechanisms to allow firms to generate credits by building electric vehicle charging stations or hydrogen fueling stations have minor implications for overall compliance because the total quantity of infrastructure credits is restricted to be relatively small.\",\"year\":\"2019\",\"bibtex\":\"@article{bushnell2019uncertainty,\\r\\n  title={Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030},\\r\\n  author={Bushnell, James and Mazzone, Daniel and Smith, Aaron and Witcover, Julie},\\r\\n\\tkeywords={energy},\\r\\n\\turl={https://www.ucits.org/research-project/using-low-carbon-fuel-standard-credits-to-support-low-carbon-fuel-infrastructure-policy-design-issues-and-impacts/},\\r\\n\\tabstract={California's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) specifies that the state’s transportation fuel supply achieve a 20\\\\% reduction in carbon intensity (CI) below 2011 levels by 2030. Reaching the standard will require substantive changes in the fuel mix, but the specifics and the cost of these changes are uncertain. We assess if and how California is likely to achieve the standard, and the likely impact of infrastructure credits on this compliance outlook. We begin by projecting a distribution of fuel and vehicle miles demand under business-as-usual economic and policy variation and transform those projections into a distribution of LCFS net deficits for the entire period from 2019 through 2030. We then construct a variety of scenarios characterizing LCFS credit supply that consider different assumptions regarding input markets, technological adoption over the compliance period, and the efficacy of complementary policies. In our baseline scenario for credit generation, LCFS compliance would require that between 60% and 80% of the diesel pool be produced from biomass. Our baseline projections have the number of electric vehicles reaching 1.3 million by 2030, but if the number of electric vehicles reaches Governor Jerry Brown’s goal of 5 million by 2030, then LCFS compliance would require substantially less biomass-based diesel. Outside of rapid zero emission vehicle penetration, compliance in 2030 with the $200 credit price may be much more difficult. New mechanisms to allow firms to generate credits by building electric vehicle charging stations or hydrogen fueling stations have minor implications for overall compliance because the total quantity of infrastructure credits is restricted to be relatively small.},\\r\\n  year={2019}\\r\\n}\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"author_short\":[\"Bushnell, J.\",\"Mazzone, D.\",\"Smith, A.\",\"Witcover, J.\"],\"key\":\"bushnell2019uncertainty\",\"id\":\"bushnell2019uncertainty\",\"bibbaseid\":\"bushnell-mazzone-smith-witcover-uncertaintyinnovationandinfrastructurecreditsoutlookforthelowcarbonfuelstandardthrough2030-2019\",\"role\":\"author\",\"urls\":{\"Paper\":\"https://www.ucits.org/research-project/using-low-carbon-fuel-standard-credits-to-support-low-carbon-fuel-infrastructure-policy-design-issues-and-impacts/\"},\"keyword\":[\"energy\"],\"metadata\":{\"authorlinks\":{\"smith, a\":\"https://asmith.ucdavis.edu/\"}},\"html\":\"\"},{\"bibtype\":\"article\",\"type\":\"article\",\"title\":\"Effects of the Renewable Fuel Standard on Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices\",\"author\":[{\"propositions\":[],\"lastnames\":[\"Smith\"],\"firstnames\":[\"Aaron\"],\"suffixes\":[]}],\"url\":\"https://www.dropbox.com/s/wubrrij4b8mav1v/Smith%20-%20Effect%20of%20RFS%20on%20Prices_Latest.pdf?dl=1\",\"abstract\":\"The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) became law in 2007. It dictates the minimum volume of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel that must be used each year for transportation fuel. In a recently published study, Carter, Rausser and Smith (2017) use a new econometric model to estimate the effects of the RFS on the corn market. They estimate that the RFS2 raised corn prices by about 30. This report summarizes their study and extends it to the soybean and wheat markets. I find that the RFS2 increased soybean and wheat prices by about 20%.\",\"keywords\":\"energy\",\"year\":\"2018\",\"bibtex\":\"@article{smith2018effects,\\r\\n  title={Effects of the Renewable Fuel Standard on Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices},\\r\\n  author={Smith, Aaron},\\r\\n\\turl={https://www.dropbox.com/s/wubrrij4b8mav1v/Smith%20-%20Effect%20of%20RFS%20on%20Prices_Latest.pdf?dl=1},\\r\\n\\tabstract={The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) became law in 2007. It dictates the minimum volume of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel that must be used each year for transportation fuel. In a recently published study, Carter, Rausser and Smith (2017) use a new econometric model to estimate the effects of the RFS on the corn market. They estimate that the RFS2 raised corn prices by about 30. This report summarizes their study and extends it to the soybean and wheat markets. I find that the RFS2 increased soybean and wheat prices by about 20\\\\%.},\\r\\n\\tkeywords={energy},\\r\\n  year={2018}\\r\\n}\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"author_short\":[\"Smith, A.\"],\"key\":\"smith2018effects\",\"id\":\"smith2018effects\",\"bibbaseid\":\"smith-effectsoftherenewablefuelstandardoncornsoybeanandwheatprices-2018\",\"role\":\"author\",\"urls\":{\"Paper\":\"https://www.dropbox.com/s/wubrrij4b8mav1v/Smith%20-%20Effect%20of%20RFS%20on%20Prices_Latest.pdf?dl=1\"},\"keyword\":[\"energy\"],\"metadata\":{\"authorlinks\":{\"smith, a\":\"https://asmith.ucdavis.edu/\"}},\"html\":\"\"}],\n      metadata: {\"owner\":\"smith, a\",\"authorlinks\":{}},\n      ownerID: \"5amQQM5eASSFYG3dT\"\n    };\n  </script>\n\n  <script type=\"text/javascript\">\n  var site$;\n  if (typeof $ != 'undefined') {\n    console.log('existing jquery: storing and then restoring');\n    site$ = $;\n    $ = null;\n  }\n  </script>\n\n  <script src=\"https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/2.2.4/jquery.min.js\">\n  </script>\n  <script type=\"text/javascript\">\n  if (site$) {\n    console.log('existing jquery: avoiding conflict and restoring');\n    bb$ = $.noConflict(true);\n    $ = site$;\n  } else {\n    bb$ = $;\n  }\n  </script>\n\n  <script src=\"//bibbase.org/js/bibbase.min.js\"\n          type=\"text/javascript\">\n  </script>\n\n  <script type=\"text/javascript\"\n          src=\"https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.1/MathJax.js?config=TeX-AMS-MML_HTMLorMML\">\n  </script>\n  <script type=\"text/x-mathjax-config\">\n    MathJax.Hub.Config({tex2jax: {inlineMath: [['$','$'], ['\\\\(','\\\\)']]},\n                        skipTags: [\"body\"],\n                        processClass: \"bibbase_paper\"});\n  </script>\n\n  <style>\n  @media print {\n    .dontprint {\n        display: none !important;\n    }\n\n  .bibbase_group {\n    background-color: #E0E0E0;\n    font-style: italic;\n    font-size: larger;\n    text-shadow: 0px 0px 3px #FFFFFF;\n    border-radius: 4px 4px 4px 4px;\n    -moz-border-radius: 4px 4px 4px 4px;\n    -webkit-border-radius: 4px;\n    padding: 5px 40px 5px;\n    margin-top: 10px;\n    margin-bottom: 5px;\n    cursor: pointer;\n  }\n\n  .bibbase_paper {\n    margin-bottom: 5px;\n  }\n\n  }\n  </style>\n\n  \n  <div style=\"float: right; 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Such policies include the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and Oregon’s Clean Fuel Program (CFP). These policies, along with a federal Blender’s BBD Tax Credit (BTC), provide financial incentives for BBD. In this white paper, we study pass-through of implicit taxes and subsidies, introduced by federal and state policies, to a variety of diesel and soy biodiesel fuel prices in the context of the U.S. diesel sector, focusing on fossil diesel and soy biodiesel. We apply time series methods techniques to estimate how a variety of diesel fuel price spreads across the country and in California and Oregon responds to changes in the implicit taxes placed on petroleum diesel and the implicit subsidies awarded to biodiesel. The results presented in this paper point to some inefficiencies in the RFS, LCFS, and CFP. The primary contribution of this paper was providing the first set of estimates of pass-through of LCFS implicit taxes and subsidies, and doing so for the diesel sector, a critical player in LCFS compliance.},\r\n\tkeywords={energy},\r\n  year={2022}\r\n}\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n</pre>\n</div>\n\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"abstract\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  Biodiesel and hydrotreated renewable diesel (RD)—or collectively biomass-based diesel (BBD)—have become integral components of compliance with policies aiming to reduce U.S. transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. Such policies include the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and Oregon’s Clean Fuel Program (CFP). These policies, along with a federal Blender’s BBD Tax Credit (BTC), provide financial incentives for BBD. In this white paper, we study pass-through of implicit taxes and subsidies, introduced by federal and state policies, to a variety of diesel and soy biodiesel fuel prices in the context of the U.S. diesel sector, focusing on fossil diesel and soy biodiesel. We apply time series methods techniques to estimate how a variety of diesel fuel price spreads across the country and in California and Oregon responds to changes in the implicit taxes placed on petroleum diesel and the implicit subsidies awarded to biodiesel. The results presented in this paper point to some inefficiencies in the RFS, LCFS, and CFP. The primary contribution of this paper was providing the first set of estimates of pass-through of LCFS implicit taxes and subsidies, and doing so for the diesel sector, a critical player in LCFS compliance.\n</div>\n\n\n</div>\n\n\n  <div class=\"bibbase_paper\" id=\"alexander-yarborough-smith-whoisresponsibleforresponsibleainavigatingchallengestobuildtrustinaiagricultureandfoodsystemtechnologyresearch-2022\">\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_titleauthoryear\">\n\n  \n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_title\">\n  \n  \n  <a href=\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/who_is_responsible_for_responsible_ai_revised.pdf\"\n     onclick=\"return trackOutboundLink('publications', 'click', 'alexander-yarborough-smith-whoisresponsibleforresponsibleainavigatingchallengestobuildtrustinaiagricultureandfoodsystemtechnologyresearch-2022', 'https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/who_is_responsible_for_responsible_ai_revised.pdf');\">\n\n    Who is Responsible for ‘Responsible AI’?: Navigating Challenges to Build Trust in AI Agriculture and Food System Technology Research.\n  </a>\n  \n  \n</span>\n\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_author\">\n  Alexander, C.; Yarborough, M.;  and Smith, A.\n</span>\n\n  \n\n</span>\n\n  .  2022.\n  <span class=\"note\"></span>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_note\"></span>\n\n<br class=\"bibbase_paper_content\"/>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_paper_content dontprint\">\n\n  \n  <a href=\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/who_is_responsible_for_responsible_ai_revised.pdf\"\n     onclick=\"log_download('alexander-yarborough-smith-whoisresponsibleforresponsibleainavigatingchallengestobuildtrustinaiagricultureandfoodsystemtechnologyresearch-2022', 'https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/who_is_responsible_for_responsible_ai_revised.pdf', event.ctrlKey)\">\n    <img src=\"//bibbase.org/img/filetypes/pdf.svg\"\n\t     alt=\"Who is Responsible for ‘Responsible AI’?: Navigating Challenges to Build Trust in AI Agriculture and Food System Technology Research [pdf]\"\n       title=\"Paper\"\n\t     class=\"bibbase_icon\"\n         ><span class=\"bibbase_icon_text\">Paper</span></a>\n  &nbsp;\n  \n\n  \n\n  <a href=\"//bibbase.org/network/publication/alexander-yarborough-smith-whoisresponsibleforresponsibleainavigatingchallengestobuildtrustinaiagricultureandfoodsystemtechnologyresearch-2022\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibbase_page link\">link</a>\n  &nbsp;\n\n  <a href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showBib(event); return false;\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibtex link\">bibtex\n    <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n\n  \n  &nbsp;\n  <a class=\"bibbase_abstract_link bibbase link\"\n     href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showAbstract(event); return false;\">\n    abstract <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n  \n\n  \n\n  <!-- <a class=\"bibbase read link hidden\" -->\n  <!--    href=\"javascript:toggleRead('alexander-yarborough-smith-whoisresponsibleforresponsibleainavigatingchallengestobuildtrustinaiagricultureandfoodsystemtechnologyresearch-2022')\" -->\n  <!--    title=\"Marking this paper as read adds it to your library on BibBase.\" -->\n  <!--    > -->\n  <!--   <i class=\"fa fa-check\"></i>&nbsp; -->\n  <!--   <span>mark as read</span> -->\n  <!-- </a> -->\n\n  &nbsp;\n  \n  \n  \n  \n\n</span>\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"bibtex\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  <pre style=\"white-space: pre-wrap;\">@article{alexander2022AIethics,\r\n  title={Who is Responsible for ‘Responsible AI’?: Navigating Challenges to Build Trust in AI Agriculture and Food System Technology Research},\r\n  author={Alexander, Carrie and Yarborough, Mark and Smith, Aaron},\r\n\turl={https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/who_is_responsible_for_responsible_ai_revised.pdf},\r\n\tabstract={This article presents findings from interviews that were conducted with agriculture and food system researchers to understand their views about what it means to conduct &#x60;responsible&#x27; or &#x60;trustworthy&#x27; Artificial Intelligence research and the challenges they face in meeting conflicting ethical standards in the rapidly-changing field of research that is helping to develop AI-based food technologies, as well as analysis of these findings that was informed by a broad spectrum of academic work that pertains to technological innovation and oversight. Interviewees reported several key themes and challenges. First, they expressed concerns regarding whether sufficient governance of commercial AI is sufficient to prevent low-quality technologies from discrediting these methods among farmers and food producers, while simultaneously expressing worries about restrictive or disconnected governance of academic research that they worried could delay the development of higher-quality technologies based on validated data that would potentially facilitate better outcomes. Second, interviews highlighted ethical and legal gray areas that pose a significant challenge for both academic and commercial AI research and development. The academic literature describes how current laws and ethics codes give contradictory guidance, and often fail to address crucial ethical issues, which reinforces the cogency of these gray areas of concern to interviewees. Both scholarship and history show that standards are open to a wide array of interpretations by parties with conflicting interests. The interviews and analysis suggest these issues make it more challenging for academic researchers to persuade farmers and food producers to trust their research. Researchers must negotiate from a middle ground between funders and food system partners to decide which interests and ethical standards and interpretations will be prioritized.},\r\n\tkeywords={agriculture},\r\n  year={2022}\r\n}\r\n\r\n\r\n</pre>\n</div>\n\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"abstract\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  This article presents findings from interviews that were conducted with agriculture and food system researchers to understand their views about what it means to conduct `responsible' or `trustworthy' Artificial Intelligence research and the challenges they face in meeting conflicting ethical standards in the rapidly-changing field of research that is helping to develop AI-based food technologies, as well as analysis of these findings that was informed by a broad spectrum of academic work that pertains to technological innovation and oversight. Interviewees reported several key themes and challenges. First, they expressed concerns regarding whether sufficient governance of commercial AI is sufficient to prevent low-quality technologies from discrediting these methods among farmers and food producers, while simultaneously expressing worries about restrictive or disconnected governance of academic research that they worried could delay the development of higher-quality technologies based on validated data that would potentially facilitate better outcomes. Second, interviews highlighted ethical and legal gray areas that pose a significant challenge for both academic and commercial AI research and development. The academic literature describes how current laws and ethics codes give contradictory guidance, and often fail to address crucial ethical issues, which reinforces the cogency of these gray areas of concern to interviewees. Both scholarship and history show that standards are open to a wide array of interpretations by parties with conflicting interests. The interviews and analysis suggest these issues make it more challenging for academic researchers to persuade farmers and food producers to trust their research. Researchers must negotiate from a middle ground between funders and food system partners to decide which interests and ethical standards and interpretations will be prioritized.\n</div>\n\n\n</div>\n\n\n  <div class=\"bibbase_paper\" id=\"metaxogolou-smith-agriculturesnitrogenlegacy-2022\">\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_titleauthoryear\">\n\n  \n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_title\">\n  \n  \n  <a href=\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_legacy.pdf\"\n     onclick=\"return trackOutboundLink('publications', 'click', 'metaxogolou-smith-agriculturesnitrogenlegacy-2022', 'https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_legacy.pdf');\">\n\n    Agriculture's Nitrogen Legacy.\n  </a>\n  \n  \n</span>\n\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_author\">\n  Metaxogolou, K.;  and Smith, A.\n</span>\n\n  \n\n</span>\n\n  .  2022.\n  <span class=\"note\"></span>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_note\"></span>\n\n<br class=\"bibbase_paper_content\"/>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_paper_content dontprint\">\n\n  \n  <a href=\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_legacy.pdf\"\n     onclick=\"log_download('metaxogolou-smith-agriculturesnitrogenlegacy-2022', 'https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_legacy.pdf', event.ctrlKey)\">\n    <img src=\"//bibbase.org/img/filetypes/pdf.svg\"\n\t     alt=\"Agriculture&#x27;s Nitrogen Legacy [pdf]\"\n       title=\"Paper\"\n\t     class=\"bibbase_icon\"\n         ><span class=\"bibbase_icon_text\">Paper</span></a>\n  &nbsp;\n  \n\n  \n\n  <a href=\"//bibbase.org/network/publication/metaxogolou-smith-agriculturesnitrogenlegacy-2022\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibbase_page link\">link</a>\n  &nbsp;\n\n  <a href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showBib(event); return false;\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibtex link\">bibtex\n    <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n\n  \n  &nbsp;\n  <a class=\"bibbase_abstract_link bibbase link\"\n     href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showAbstract(event); return false;\">\n    abstract <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n  \n\n  \n\n  <!-- <a class=\"bibbase read link hidden\" -->\n  <!--    href=\"javascript:toggleRead('metaxogolou-smith-agriculturesnitrogenlegacy-2022')\" -->\n  <!--    title=\"Marking this paper as read adds it to your library on BibBase.\" -->\n  <!--    > -->\n  <!--   <i class=\"fa fa-check\"></i>&nbsp; -->\n  <!--   <span>mark as read</span> -->\n  <!-- </a> -->\n\n  &nbsp;\n  \n  \n  \n  \n\n</span>\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"bibtex\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  <pre style=\"white-space: pre-wrap;\">@article{metaxogolou2022waterlegacy,\r\n  title={Agriculture&#x27;s Nitrogen Legacy},\r\n  author={Metaxogolou, Konstantinos and Smith, Aaron},\r\n\turl={https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_legacy.pdf},\r\n\tabstract={Nitrogen pollution of waterways is a large global problem, especially in regions with intensive cropland agriculture such as the Mississippi River Basin that drains 40\\% of the continental United States. In contrast to prior studies, which mostly apply agronomic and hydrologic models, we collect detailed data from water quality monitors and use panel data econometric methods to estimate how land use affects nitrogen pollution. We find a strong positive effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in nearby streams and rivers that is an order of magnitude smaller than those implied by the agronomic and hydrologic models. Our findings are consistent with a new line of research documenting accumulation of large amounts of nitrogen in subsurface soil and groundwater over several decades; this is excess nitrogen that was applied to fields but has yet to appear in waterways. This legacy nitrogen will eventually leach into streams and rivers exacerbating further nutrient pollution. In the presence of large amounts of legacy nitrogen, land retirement and other on-farm mitigation policies are uneconomic. Downstream off-farm practices, such as the creation and restoration of fluvial wetlands, which can remove both legacy and new nitrogen, however, are cost-effective.},\r\n\tkeywords={agriculture},\r\n  year={2022}\r\n}\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n</pre>\n</div>\n\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"abstract\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  Nitrogen pollution of waterways is a large global problem, especially in regions with intensive cropland agriculture such as the Mississippi River Basin that drains 40% of the continental United States. In contrast to prior studies, which mostly apply agronomic and hydrologic models, we collect detailed data from water quality monitors and use panel data econometric methods to estimate how land use affects nitrogen pollution. We find a strong positive effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in nearby streams and rivers that is an order of magnitude smaller than those implied by the agronomic and hydrologic models. Our findings are consistent with a new line of research documenting accumulation of large amounts of nitrogen in subsurface soil and groundwater over several decades; this is excess nitrogen that was applied to fields but has yet to appear in waterways. This legacy nitrogen will eventually leach into streams and rivers exacerbating further nutrient pollution. In the presence of large amounts of legacy nitrogen, land retirement and other on-farm mitigation policies are uneconomic. Downstream off-farm practices, such as the creation and restoration of fluvial wetlands, which can remove both legacy and new nitrogen, however, are cost-effective.\n</div>\n\n\n</div>\n\n\n  <div class=\"bibbase_paper\" id=\"metaxogolou-smith-nutrientpollutionandusagriculturecausaleffectsintegratedassessmentandimplicationsofclimatechange-2022\">\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_titleauthoryear\">\n\n  \n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_title\">\n  \n  \n  <a href=\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_climate.pdf\"\n     onclick=\"return trackOutboundLink('publications', 'click', 'metaxogolou-smith-nutrientpollutionandusagriculturecausaleffectsintegratedassessmentandimplicationsofclimatechange-2022', 'https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_climate.pdf');\">\n\n    Nutrient Pollution and U.S. Agriculture: Causal Effects, Integrated Assessment, and Implications of Climate Change.\n  </a>\n  \n  \n</span>\n\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_author\">\n  Metaxogolou, K.;  and Smith, A.\n</span>\n\n  \n\n</span>\n\n  .  2022.\n  <span class=\"note\"></span>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_note\"></span>\n\n<br class=\"bibbase_paper_content\"/>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_paper_content dontprint\">\n\n  \n  <a href=\"https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_climate.pdf\"\n     onclick=\"log_download('metaxogolou-smith-nutrientpollutionandusagriculturecausaleffectsintegratedassessmentandimplicationsofclimatechange-2022', 'https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_climate.pdf', event.ctrlKey)\">\n    <img src=\"//bibbase.org/img/filetypes/pdf.svg\"\n\t     alt=\"Nutrient Pollution and U.S. Agriculture: Causal Effects, Integrated Assessment, and Implications of Climate Change [pdf]\"\n       title=\"Paper\"\n\t     class=\"bibbase_icon\"\n         ><span class=\"bibbase_icon_text\">Paper</span></a>\n  &nbsp;\n  \n\n  \n\n  <a href=\"//bibbase.org/network/publication/metaxogolou-smith-nutrientpollutionandusagriculturecausaleffectsintegratedassessmentandimplicationsofclimatechange-2022\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibbase_page link\">link</a>\n  &nbsp;\n\n  <a href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showBib(event); return false;\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibtex link\">bibtex\n    <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n\n  \n  &nbsp;\n  <a class=\"bibbase_abstract_link bibbase link\"\n     href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showAbstract(event); return false;\">\n    abstract <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n  \n\n  \n\n  <!-- <a class=\"bibbase read link hidden\" -->\n  <!--    href=\"javascript:toggleRead('metaxogolou-smith-nutrientpollutionandusagriculturecausaleffectsintegratedassessmentandimplicationsofclimatechange-2022')\" -->\n  <!--    title=\"Marking this paper as read adds it to your library on BibBase.\" -->\n  <!--    > -->\n  <!--   <i class=\"fa fa-check\"></i>&nbsp; -->\n  <!--   <span>mark as read</span> -->\n  <!-- </a> -->\n\n  &nbsp;\n  \n  \n  \n  \n\n</span>\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"bibtex\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  <pre style=\"white-space: pre-wrap;\">@article{metaxogolou2022waterclimate,\r\n  title={Nutrient Pollution and U.S. Agriculture: Causal Effects, Integrated Assessment, and Implications of Climate Change},\r\n  author={Metaxogolou, Konstantinos and Smith, Aaron},\r\n\turl={https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/water_draft_climate.pdf},\r\n\tabstract={We study the relationship between water nutrient pollution and U.S. agriculture using data between the early 1970s and late 2010s. We estimate a positive causal effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in the country’s water bodies using alternative empirical approaches. We find that a 10\\% increase in corn acreage causes an increase in nitrogen concentration in water by at least 1\\% and show that the magnitude of the acreage effect increases with precipitation but not with extreme temperature. Based on the average streamflow of the Mississippi River at the Gulf of Mexico during this period and damages of about 16 dollars per kilogram of nitrogen, this 1\\% increase in average nitrogen concentration implies an annual external cost of 800 million dollars. We also report the results of additional integrated-assessment type of exercises aimed to inform policy makers, and we use recent climate models to project the implications of climate change on the magnitude of the estimated effects. We estimate that climate change will not materially change the relationship between corn acreage and nitrogen concentration in waterways.},\r\n\tkeywords={agriculture},\r\n  year={2022}\r\n}\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n</pre>\n</div>\n\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"abstract\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  We study the relationship between water nutrient pollution and U.S. agriculture using data between the early 1970s and late 2010s. We estimate a positive causal effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in the country’s water bodies using alternative empirical approaches. We find that a 10% increase in corn acreage causes an increase in nitrogen concentration in water by at least 1% and show that the magnitude of the acreage effect increases with precipitation but not with extreme temperature. Based on the average streamflow of the Mississippi River at the Gulf of Mexico during this period and damages of about 16 dollars per kilogram of nitrogen, this 1% increase in average nitrogen concentration implies an annual external cost of 800 million dollars. We also report the results of additional integrated-assessment type of exercises aimed to inform policy makers, and we use recent climate models to project the implications of climate change on the magnitude of the estimated effects. We estimate that climate change will not materially change the relationship between corn acreage and nitrogen concentration in waterways.\n</div>\n\n\n</div>\n\n\n\n\n\n    </div>\n  </div>\n\n  <div class=\"bibbase_group_whole\" id=\"group_2019\">\n    <div class=\"bibbase_group\"\n      onclick=\"toggleGroup('group_2019')\"\n      onkeypress=\"toggleGroup('group_2019')\"\n      tabindex=\"0\">\n      <i class=\"fa fa-angle-down bibbase_group_head_icon\"></i>&nbsp;\n      <span>2019</span>\n      <span class=\"bibbase_group_count\">\n        \n        (1)\n        \n      </span>\n    </div>\n    <div class=\"bibbase_group_body\">\n      \n  \n  <div class=\"bibbase_paper\" id=\"bushnell-mazzone-smith-witcover-uncertaintyinnovationandinfrastructurecreditsoutlookforthelowcarbonfuelstandardthrough2030-2019\">\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_titleauthoryear\">\n\n  \n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_title\">\n  \n  \n  <a href=\"https://www.ucits.org/research-project/using-low-carbon-fuel-standard-credits-to-support-low-carbon-fuel-infrastructure-policy-design-issues-and-impacts/\"\n     onclick=\"return trackOutboundLink('publications', 'click', 'bushnell-mazzone-smith-witcover-uncertaintyinnovationandinfrastructurecreditsoutlookforthelowcarbonfuelstandardthrough2030-2019', 'https://www.ucits.org/research-project/using-low-carbon-fuel-standard-credits-to-support-low-carbon-fuel-infrastructure-policy-design-issues-and-impacts/');\">\n\n    Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030.\n  </a>\n  \n  \n</span>\n\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_author\">\n  Bushnell, J.; Mazzone, D.; <a class=\"bibbase author link\" href=\"https://asmith.ucdavis.edu/\">Smith, A.</a>;  and Witcover, J.\n</span>\n\n  \n\n</span>\n\n  .  2019.\n  <span class=\"note\"></span>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_note\"></span>\n\n<br class=\"bibbase_paper_content\"/>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_paper_content dontprint\">\n\n  \n  <a href=\"https://www.ucits.org/research-project/using-low-carbon-fuel-standard-credits-to-support-low-carbon-fuel-infrastructure-policy-design-issues-and-impacts/\"\n     onclick=\"log_download('bushnell-mazzone-smith-witcover-uncertaintyinnovationandinfrastructurecreditsoutlookforthelowcarbonfuelstandardthrough2030-2019', 'https://www.ucits.org/research-project/using-low-carbon-fuel-standard-credits-to-support-low-carbon-fuel-infrastructure-policy-design-issues-and-impacts/', event.ctrlKey)\">\n    <img src=\"//bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg\"\n\t     alt=\"Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030 [link]\"\n       title=\"Paper\"\n\t     class=\"bibbase_icon\"\n         ><span class=\"bibbase_icon_text\">Paper</span></a>\n  &nbsp;\n  \n\n  \n\n  <a href=\"//bibbase.org/network/publication/bushnell-mazzone-smith-witcover-uncertaintyinnovationandinfrastructurecreditsoutlookforthelowcarbonfuelstandardthrough2030-2019\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibbase_page link\">link</a>\n  &nbsp;\n\n  <a href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showBib(event); return false;\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibtex link\">bibtex\n    <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n\n  \n  &nbsp;\n  <a class=\"bibbase_abstract_link bibbase link\"\n     href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showAbstract(event); return false;\">\n    abstract <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n  \n\n  \n\n  <!-- <a class=\"bibbase read link hidden\" -->\n  <!--    href=\"javascript:toggleRead('bushnell-mazzone-smith-witcover-uncertaintyinnovationandinfrastructurecreditsoutlookforthelowcarbonfuelstandardthrough2030-2019')\" -->\n  <!--    title=\"Marking this paper as read adds it to your library on BibBase.\" -->\n  <!--    > -->\n  <!--   <i class=\"fa fa-check\"></i>&nbsp; -->\n  <!--   <span>mark as read</span> -->\n  <!-- </a> -->\n\n  &nbsp;\n  \n  \n  \n  \n\n</span>\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"bibtex\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  <pre style=\"white-space: pre-wrap;\">@article{bushnell2019uncertainty,\r\n  title={Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030},\r\n  author={Bushnell, James and Mazzone, Daniel and Smith, Aaron and Witcover, Julie},\r\n\tkeywords={energy},\r\n\turl={https://www.ucits.org/research-project/using-low-carbon-fuel-standard-credits-to-support-low-carbon-fuel-infrastructure-policy-design-issues-and-impacts/},\r\n\tabstract={California&#x27;s low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) specifies that the state’s transportation fuel supply achieve a 20\\% reduction in carbon intensity (CI) below 2011 levels by 2030. Reaching the standard will require substantive changes in the fuel mix, but the specifics and the cost of these changes are uncertain. We assess if and how California is likely to achieve the standard, and the likely impact of infrastructure credits on this compliance outlook. We begin by projecting a distribution of fuel and vehicle miles demand under business-as-usual economic and policy variation and transform those projections into a distribution of LCFS net deficits for the entire period from 2019 through 2030. We then construct a variety of scenarios characterizing LCFS credit supply that consider different assumptions regarding input markets, technological adoption over the compliance period, and the efficacy of complementary policies. In our baseline scenario for credit generation, LCFS compliance would require that between 60% and 80% of the diesel pool be produced from biomass. Our baseline projections have the number of electric vehicles reaching 1.3 million by 2030, but if the number of electric vehicles reaches Governor Jerry Brown’s goal of 5 million by 2030, then LCFS compliance would require substantially less biomass-based diesel. Outside of rapid zero emission vehicle penetration, compliance in 2030 with the $200 credit price may be much more difficult. New mechanisms to allow firms to generate credits by building electric vehicle charging stations or hydrogen fueling stations have minor implications for overall compliance because the total quantity of infrastructure credits is restricted to be relatively small.},\r\n  year={2019}\r\n}\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n</pre>\n</div>\n\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"abstract\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  California's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) specifies that the state’s transportation fuel supply achieve a 20% reduction in carbon intensity (CI) below 2011 levels by 2030. Reaching the standard will require substantive changes in the fuel mix, but the specifics and the cost of these changes are uncertain. We assess if and how California is likely to achieve the standard, and the likely impact of infrastructure credits on this compliance outlook. We begin by projecting a distribution of fuel and vehicle miles demand under business-as-usual economic and policy variation and transform those projections into a distribution of LCFS net deficits for the entire period from 2019 through 2030. We then construct a variety of scenarios characterizing LCFS credit supply that consider different assumptions regarding input markets, technological adoption over the compliance period, and the efficacy of complementary policies. In our baseline scenario for credit generation, LCFS compliance would require that between 60% and 80% of the diesel pool be produced from biomass. Our baseline projections have the number of electric vehicles reaching 1.3 million by 2030, but if the number of electric vehicles reaches Governor Jerry Brown’s goal of 5 million by 2030, then LCFS compliance would require substantially less biomass-based diesel. Outside of rapid zero emission vehicle penetration, compliance in 2030 with the $200 credit price may be much more difficult. New mechanisms to allow firms to generate credits by building electric vehicle charging stations or hydrogen fueling stations have minor implications for overall compliance because the total quantity of infrastructure credits is restricted to be relatively small.\n</div>\n\n\n</div>\n\n\n\n\n\n    </div>\n  </div>\n\n  <div class=\"bibbase_group_whole\" id=\"group_2018\">\n    <div class=\"bibbase_group\"\n      onclick=\"toggleGroup('group_2018')\"\n      onkeypress=\"toggleGroup('group_2018')\"\n      tabindex=\"0\">\n      <i class=\"fa fa-angle-down bibbase_group_head_icon\"></i>&nbsp;\n      <span>2018</span>\n      <span class=\"bibbase_group_count\">\n        \n        (1)\n        \n      </span>\n    </div>\n    <div class=\"bibbase_group_body\">\n      \n  \n  <div class=\"bibbase_paper\" id=\"smith-effectsoftherenewablefuelstandardoncornsoybeanandwheatprices-2018\">\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_titleauthoryear\">\n\n  \n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_title\">\n  \n  \n  <a href=\"https://www.dropbox.com/s/wubrrij4b8mav1v/Smith%20-%20Effect%20of%20RFS%20on%20Prices_Latest.pdf?dl=1\"\n     onclick=\"return trackOutboundLink('publications', 'click', 'smith-effectsoftherenewablefuelstandardoncornsoybeanandwheatprices-2018', 'https://www.dropbox.com/s/wubrrij4b8mav1v/Smith%20-%20Effect%20of%20RFS%20on%20Prices_Latest.pdf?dl=1');\">\n\n    Effects of the Renewable Fuel Standard on Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices.\n  </a>\n  \n  \n</span>\n\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_author\">\n  <a class=\"bibbase author link\" href=\"https://asmith.ucdavis.edu/\">Smith, A.</a>\n</span>\n\n  \n\n</span>\n\n  .  2018.\n  <span class=\"note\"></span>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_note\"></span>\n\n<br class=\"bibbase_paper_content\"/>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_paper_content dontprint\">\n\n  \n  <a href=\"https://www.dropbox.com/s/wubrrij4b8mav1v/Smith%20-%20Effect%20of%20RFS%20on%20Prices_Latest.pdf?dl=1\"\n     onclick=\"log_download('smith-effectsoftherenewablefuelstandardoncornsoybeanandwheatprices-2018', 'https://www.dropbox.com/s/wubrrij4b8mav1v/Smith%20-%20Effect%20of%20RFS%20on%20Prices_Latest.pdf?dl=1', event.ctrlKey)\">\n    <img src=\"//bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg\"\n\t     alt=\"Effects of the Renewable Fuel Standard on Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices [link]\"\n       title=\"Paper\"\n\t     class=\"bibbase_icon\"\n         ><span class=\"bibbase_icon_text\">Paper</span></a>\n  &nbsp;\n  \n\n  \n\n  <a href=\"//bibbase.org/network/publication/smith-effectsoftherenewablefuelstandardoncornsoybeanandwheatprices-2018\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibbase_page link\">link</a>\n  &nbsp;\n\n  <a href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showBib(event); return false;\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibtex link\">bibtex\n    <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n\n  \n  &nbsp;\n  <a class=\"bibbase_abstract_link bibbase link\"\n     href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showAbstract(event); return false;\">\n    abstract <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n  \n\n  \n\n  <!-- <a class=\"bibbase read link hidden\" -->\n  <!--    href=\"javascript:toggleRead('smith-effectsoftherenewablefuelstandardoncornsoybeanandwheatprices-2018')\" -->\n  <!--    title=\"Marking this paper as read adds it to your library on BibBase.\" -->\n  <!--    > -->\n  <!--   <i class=\"fa fa-check\"></i>&nbsp; -->\n  <!--   <span>mark as read</span> -->\n  <!-- </a> -->\n\n  &nbsp;\n  \n  \n  \n  \n\n</span>\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"bibtex\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  <pre style=\"white-space: pre-wrap;\">@article{smith2018effects,\r\n  title={Effects of the Renewable Fuel Standard on Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices},\r\n  author={Smith, Aaron},\r\n\turl={https://www.dropbox.com/s/wubrrij4b8mav1v/Smith%20-%20Effect%20of%20RFS%20on%20Prices_Latest.pdf?dl=1},\r\n\tabstract={The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) became law in 2007. It dictates the minimum volume of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel that must be used each year for transportation fuel. In a recently published study, Carter, Rausser and Smith (2017) use a new econometric model to estimate the effects of the RFS on the corn market. They estimate that the RFS2 raised corn prices by about 30. This report summarizes their study and extends it to the soybean and wheat markets. I find that the RFS2 increased soybean and wheat prices by about 20\\%.},\r\n\tkeywords={energy},\r\n  year={2018}\r\n}\r\n\r\n</pre>\n</div>\n\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"abstract\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) became law in 2007. It dictates the minimum volume of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel that must be used each year for transportation fuel. In a recently published study, Carter, Rausser and Smith (2017) use a new econometric model to estimate the effects of the RFS on the corn market. They estimate that the RFS2 raised corn prices by about 30. This report summarizes their study and extends it to the soybean and wheat markets. I find that the RFS2 increased soybean and wheat prices by about 20%.\n</div>\n\n\n</div>\n\n\n\n\n\n    </div>\n  </div>\n\n  <div class=\"bibbase_group_whole\" id=\"group_2017\">\n    <div class=\"bibbase_group\"\n      onclick=\"toggleGroup('group_2017')\"\n      onkeypress=\"toggleGroup('group_2017')\"\n      tabindex=\"0\">\n      <i class=\"fa fa-angle-down bibbase_group_head_icon\"></i>&nbsp;\n      <span>2017</span>\n      <span class=\"bibbase_group_count\">\n        \n        (1)\n        \n      </span>\n    </div>\n    <div class=\"bibbase_group_body\">\n      \n  \n  <div class=\"bibbase_paper\" id=\"pouliot-smith-stock-rinpassthroughatgasolineterminals-2017\">\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_titleauthoryear\">\n\n  \n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_title\">\n  \n  \n  <a href=\"https://www.dropbox.com/s/52yzs17hksxe0z9/Pass-through_Latest.pdf?dl=1\"\n     onclick=\"return trackOutboundLink('publications', 'click', 'pouliot-smith-stock-rinpassthroughatgasolineterminals-2017', 'https://www.dropbox.com/s/52yzs17hksxe0z9/Pass-through_Latest.pdf?dl=1');\">\n\n    RIN Pass-Through at Gasoline Terminals.\n  </a>\n  \n  \n</span>\n\n  <span class=\"bibbase_paper_author\">\n  Pouliot, S.; <a class=\"bibbase author link\" href=\"https://asmith.ucdavis.edu/\">Smith, A.</a>;  and Stock, J. H\n</span>\n\n  \n\n</span>\n\n  .  2017.\n  <span class=\"note\"></span>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_note\"></span>\n\n<br class=\"bibbase_paper_content\"/>\n\n<span class=\"bibbase_paper_content dontprint\">\n\n  \n  <a href=\"https://www.dropbox.com/s/52yzs17hksxe0z9/Pass-through_Latest.pdf?dl=1\"\n     onclick=\"log_download('pouliot-smith-stock-rinpassthroughatgasolineterminals-2017', 'https://www.dropbox.com/s/52yzs17hksxe0z9/Pass-through_Latest.pdf?dl=1', event.ctrlKey)\">\n    <img src=\"//bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg\"\n\t     alt=\"RIN Pass-Through at Gasoline Terminals [link]\"\n       title=\"Paper\"\n\t     class=\"bibbase_icon\"\n         ><span class=\"bibbase_icon_text\">Paper</span></a>\n  &nbsp;\n  \n\n  \n\n  <a href=\"//bibbase.org/network/publication/pouliot-smith-stock-rinpassthroughatgasolineterminals-2017\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibbase_page link\">link</a>\n  &nbsp;\n\n  <a href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showBib(event); return false;\"\n     class=\"bibbase bibtex link\">bibtex\n    <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n\n  \n  &nbsp;\n  <a class=\"bibbase_abstract_link bibbase link\"\n     href=\"#\"\n     onclick=\"showAbstract(event); return false;\">\n    abstract <i class=\"fa fa-caret-down\"></i></a>\n  \n\n  \n\n  <!-- <a class=\"bibbase read link hidden\" -->\n  <!--    href=\"javascript:toggleRead('pouliot-smith-stock-rinpassthroughatgasolineterminals-2017')\" -->\n  <!--    title=\"Marking this paper as read adds it to your library on BibBase.\" -->\n  <!--    > -->\n  <!--   <i class=\"fa fa-check\"></i>&nbsp; -->\n  <!--   <span>mark as read</span> -->\n  <!-- </a> -->\n\n  &nbsp;\n  \n  \n  \n  \n\n</span>\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"bibtex\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  <pre style=\"white-space: pre-wrap;\">@article{pouliot2017rin,\r\n  title={RIN Pass-Through at Gasoline Terminals},\r\n  author={Pouliot, Sebastien and Smith, Aaron and Stock, James H},\r\n\turl={https://www.dropbox.com/s/52yzs17hksxe0z9/Pass-through_Latest.pdf?dl=1},\r\n\tabstract={Wholesale suppliers at fuel terminals blend gasoline with ethanol to create finished gasoline. Under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), this blending activity is subsidized through a renewable fuel credit, known as a RIN. We estimate whether these suppliers, known as rack sellers, pass through the value of RINS. We find complete pass through in some locations and settings and not others. We argue that the incomplete pass-through we find stems from lack of salience about how the subsidy affects rack margins. If rack sellers have price-setting power in the RIN market, which is plausible, then the incomplete pass through we find creates an incentive for them to drive up RIN prices thereby raising compliance costs.},\r\n\tkeywords={energy},\r\n  year={2017}\r\n}\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n</pre>\n</div>\n\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" data-type=\"abstract\"\n     style=\"display:none\">\n  Wholesale suppliers at fuel terminals blend gasoline with ethanol to create finished gasoline. Under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), this blending activity is subsidized through a renewable fuel credit, known as a RIN. We estimate whether these suppliers, known as rack sellers, pass through the value of RINS. We find complete pass through in some locations and settings and not others. We argue that the incomplete pass-through we find stems from lack of salience about how the subsidy affects rack margins. If rack sellers have price-setting power in the RIN market, which is plausible, then the incomplete pass through we find creates an incentive for them to drive up RIN prices thereby raising compliance costs.\n</div>\n\n\n</div>\n\n\n\n\n\n    </div>\n  </div>\n\n\n\n\n  </div>\n\n\n  <!-- Modal -->\n  <div id=\"bibbase_embed_modal\"\n       class=\"modal hide fade dontprint\"\n       tabindex=\"-1\"\n       role=\"dialog\"\n       aria-labelledby=\"bibbase_embed_modal_label\"\n       aria-hidden=\"true\">\n    <div class=\"modal-header\">\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"close\" data-dismiss=\"modal\"\n              aria-hidden=\"true\">&times;</button>\n      <h1>Embedding in another Page</h1>\n    </div>\n    <div id=\"modalbody\" class=\"modal-body\">\n\n      <p>\n        Copy &amp; paste any of the following snippets into an existing\n        page to embed this page. 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