New Hedging Techniques to Reduce Cotton Price Risk.
Smith, A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2004.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
2 downloads
@misc{smith2004cottom,
title={New Hedging Techniques to Reduce Cotton Price Risk},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={8},
number={1},
pages={1-3},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2004/8/1/new-hedging-techniques-to/},
abstract={The futures market provides an effective medium for mitigating price risk, but it sometimes functions imperfectly. This article illuminates these market imperfections and shows how to reduce price risk by avoiding them.},
year={2004}
}
The futures market provides an effective medium for mitigating price risk, but it sometimes functions imperfectly. This article illuminates these market imperfections and shows how to reduce price risk by avoiding them.
What is the Price of Oil?.
de Wit, J.; and Smith, A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2008.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
@misc{dewit2008price,
title={What is the Price of Oil?},
author={de Wit, Joeri and Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={11},
number={5},
pages={1-4},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2008/11/5/what-is-the-price-of-oil/},
abstract={A quoted price for a commodity such as oil is specific to a particular location at a particular time. This article describes how the crude oil prices reported in the media relate to world oil prices and local gasoline prices.},
year={2008}
}
A quoted price for a commodity such as oil is specific to a particular location at a particular time. This article describes how the crude oil prices reported in the media relate to world oil prices and local gasoline prices.
Biofuels Policy in Limbo.
Smith, A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2014.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
1 download
@misc{smith2014biofuel,
title={Biofuels Policy in Limbo},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={18},
number={2},
pages={1-4},
abstract={Federal legislation requires increasing quantities of biofuel to be blended into the fuel supply, but the EPA is vacillating on whether it will enforce this mandate. Biofuel mandates are an expensive way to reduce carbon emissions. The EPA's indecisiveness makes them even more expensive.},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2014/18/2/biofuels-policy-in-limbo/},
year={2014}
}
Federal legislation requires increasing quantities of biofuel to be blended into the fuel supply, but the EPA is vacillating on whether it will enforce this mandate. Biofuel mandates are an expensive way to reduce carbon emissions. The EPA's indecisiveness makes them even more expensive.
Does the Internet Increase Farm Profits?.
Smith, A.; and Morrison Paul, C.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2005.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
2 downloads
@misc{smith2005internet,
title={Does the Internet Increase Farm Profits?},
author={Smith, Aaron and Morrison Paul, Catherine},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={9},
number={2},
pages={5-8},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2005/9/2/does-the-internet-increas/},
abstract={Half of California farms have Internet access and 38 percent use a computer in their business. Using results from a farm-level survey, we find that most farmers who use the Internet for business purposes perceive small, if any, financial payoffs from the Internet.},
year={2005}
}
Half of California farms have Internet access and 38 percent use a computer in their business. Using results from a farm-level survey, we find that most farmers who use the Internet for business purposes perceive small, if any, financial payoffs from the Internet.
Biofuel Policies: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul.
Smith, A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2016.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
@misc{smith2016biofuel,
title={Biofuel Policies: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={19},
number={3},
pages={1-4},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2016/19/3/biofuel-policies-robbing-peter-to-pay-paul/},
abstract={Policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions from transportation have hit major obstacles in the past few years. In effect, these policies take money from petroleum producers and give it to renewable fuel producers, creating heated political and legal battles but little effect on consumers.},
year={2016}
}
Policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions from transportation have hit major obstacles in the past few years. In effect, these policies take money from petroleum producers and give it to renewable fuel producers, creating heated political and legal battles but little effect on consumers.
The Food Price Boom and Bust.
Carter, C; Rausser, G; and Smith, A
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2008.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
@misc{carter2008causes,
title={The Food Price Boom and Bust},
author={Carter, C and Rausser, G and Smith, A},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={12},
number={2},
pages={2-4},
abstract={Food commodity prices soared between September 2007 and mid-2008, then fell just as sharply. Macroeconomic factors likely underlie this boom and bust, but biofuel and trade policies continue to hold corn, soybean, and rice prices at approximately double their 2005 levels.},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2008/12/2/the-food-price-boom-and-b/},
year={2008}
}
Food commodity prices soared between September 2007 and mid-2008, then fell just as sharply. Macroeconomic factors likely underlie this boom and bust, but biofuel and trade policies continue to hold corn, soybean, and rice prices at approximately double their 2005 levels.
Giving an Inch and Keeping a Mile: Why the Corn Lobby Let the Ethanol Tax Credit Expire.
Smith, A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2012.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
@misc{smith2012giving,
title={Giving an Inch and Keeping a Mile: Why the Corn Lobby Let the Ethanol Tax Credit Expire},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={15},
number={5},
pages={1-4},
abstract={Ten percent of motor gasoline in the United States is comprised of ethanol produced from corn. This production level is required by law, a requirement that confers large benefits on corn producers by keeping corn demand and prices high. In comparison, the recently expired ethanol tax credit was a small perk.},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2012/15/5/giving-inch-and-keeping-m/},
year={2012}
}
Ten percent of motor gasoline in the United States is comprised of ethanol produced from corn. This production level is required by law, a requirement that confers large benefits on corn producers by keeping corn demand and prices high. In comparison, the recently expired ethanol tax credit was a small perk.
Do Gasoline Prices Account for Ethanol's Lower Energy Content?.
Abu-Sneneh, F.; Carter, C.; and Smith, A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2012.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
@misc{abusneneh2012gasoline,
title={Do Gasoline Prices Account for Ethanol's Lower Energy Content?},
author={Abu-Sneneh, Firas and Carter, Colin and Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={16},
number={2},
pages={1-4},
abstract={U.S. law effectively mandates that retail gasoline must contain at least 10\% ethanol. This artificial demand for ethanol drives up the price of corn, harming livestock operations and global food consumers. Recently, the U.S. government determined that short-term removal of the mandate would have no measurable impact on ethanol demand and, therefore, no impact on corn prices. If true, this ruling suggests motorists may be paying the same retail price for ethanol as gasoline, even though ethanol lowers fuel economy.},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2012/16/2/do-gasoline-prices-accoun/},
year={2012}
}
U.S. law effectively mandates that retail gasoline must contain at least 10% ethanol. This artificial demand for ethanol drives up the price of corn, harming livestock operations and global food consumers. Recently, the U.S. government determined that short-term removal of the mandate would have no measurable impact on ethanol demand and, therefore, no impact on corn prices. If true, this ruling suggests motorists may be paying the same retail price for ethanol as gasoline, even though ethanol lowers fuel economy.
Will Battle Between `Big Corn' And `Big Oil' Stall Next Generation Biofuels?.
Smith, A.; and Smith, V.
Investor's Business Daily, 2018.
Paper
link
bibtex
@misc{smith2018battle,
title={Will Battle Between `Big Corn' And `Big Oil' Stall Next Generation Biofuels?},
author={Smith, Aaron and Smith, Vince},
howpublished={Investor's Business Daily},
pages={},
url={https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/battle-between-big-corn-and-big-oil-could-stall-next-generation-biofuels/},
year={2018}
}
Biofuels, the Renewable Fuel Standard, and the Farm Bill.
Smith, A.
American Enterprise Institute, 2017.
Paper
link
bibtex
@misc{smith2017biofuels,
title={Biofuels, the Renewable Fuel Standard, and the Farm Bill},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={American Enterprise Institute},
pages={},
url={https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/biofuels-the-renewable-fuel-standard-and-the-farm-bill/},
year={2017}
}
Can Farmers Reverse Climate Change Through Carbon Farming?.
Smith, A.
American Enterprise Institute, Monthly Harvest, 2022.
Paper
link
bibtex
6 downloads
@misc{smith2022canfarmers,
title={Can Farmers Reverse Climate Change Through Carbon Farming?},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={American Enterprise Institute, Monthly Harvest},
pages={},
url={https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/can-farmers-reverse-climate-change-through-carbon-farming/},
year={2022}
}
Alternative Land-Use Impacts of the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge: Corn Ethanol vs. Soybean Oil Pathways.
Smith, A.; and Swanson, A.
American Enterprise Institute, Seasonal Harvest, 2024.
Paper
link
bibtex
@misc{smith2024alternative,
title={Alternative Land-Use Impacts of the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge: Corn Ethanol vs. Soybean Oil Pathways},
author={Smith, Aaron and Swanson, Andrew},
howpublished={American Enterprise Institute, Seasonal Harvest},
pages={},
url={https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/alternative-land-use-impacts-of-the-sustainable-aviation-fuel-grand-challenge-corn-ethanol-vs-soybean-oil-pathways/},
year={2024}
}
The AIFS Institute: Building a better food system through AI.
Tagkopoulos, I.; Earles, M. J.; Lemay, D. G.; Liu, X.; Nitin, N.; Smith, A.; Zohdi, T. I; and Brown, S. F.
American Enterprise Institute, Seasonal Harvest, 2024.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
@misc{tagkopoulos2024aifs,
title={The AIFS Institute: Building a better food system through AI},
author={Tagkopoulos, Ilias and Earles, Mason J. and Lemay, Danielle G. and Liu, Xin and Nitin, Nitin and Smith, Aaron and Zohdi, Tarek I and Brown, Stephen F.},
howpublished={American Enterprise Institute, Seasonal Harvest},
pages={89-93},
abstract={Our food system is complex, multifaceted, and in need of an upgrade. Population growth, climate change, and socioeconomic disparities are some of the challenges that create a systemic threat to its sustainability and capacity to address the needs of an evolving planet. The mission of the AI Institute of Next Generation Food Systems (AIFS) is to leverage the latest advances in AI to help create a more sustainable, efficient, nutritious, safe, and resilient food system. Instead of using AI in isolation, AIFS views it as the connective tissue that can bring together interconnected solutions from farm to fork. From guiding molecular breeding and building autonomous robots for precision agriculture, to predicting pathogen outbreaks and recommending personalized diets, AIFS projects aspire to pave the way for infrastructure and systems that empower practitioners to build the food system of the next generation. Workforce education, outreach, and ethical considerations related to the emergence of AI solutions in this sector are an integral part of AIFS with several collaborative activities aiming to foster an open dialogue and bringing closer students, trainees, teachers, producers, farmers, workers, policy makers, and other professionals.},
url={https://doi.org/10.1002/aaai.12164},
year={2024}
}
Our food system is complex, multifaceted, and in need of an upgrade. Population growth, climate change, and socioeconomic disparities are some of the challenges that create a systemic threat to its sustainability and capacity to address the needs of an evolving planet. The mission of the AI Institute of Next Generation Food Systems (AIFS) is to leverage the latest advances in AI to help create a more sustainable, efficient, nutritious, safe, and resilient food system. Instead of using AI in isolation, AIFS views it as the connective tissue that can bring together interconnected solutions from farm to fork. From guiding molecular breeding and building autonomous robots for precision agriculture, to predicting pathogen outbreaks and recommending personalized diets, AIFS projects aspire to pave the way for infrastructure and systems that empower practitioners to build the food system of the next generation. Workforce education, outreach, and ethical considerations related to the emergence of AI solutions in this sector are an integral part of AIFS with several collaborative activities aiming to foster an open dialogue and bringing closer students, trainees, teachers, producers, farmers, workers, policy makers, and other professionals.
Don't Blame It on the Rain: The Ethanol Mandate Is a Bad Idea in Any Year.
Knittel, C.; and Smith, A.
Huffington Post, 2012.
Paper
link
bibtex
@misc{knittel2012blame,
title={Don't Blame It on the Rain: The Ethanol Mandate Is a Bad Idea in Any Year},
author={Knittel, Christopher and Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Huffington Post},
pages={},
url={https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ethanol-mandate-crisis_b_1833609},
year={2012}
}
Children of the Corn: The Renewable Fuels Disaster.
Smith, A.
American Enterprise Institute, 2008.
Paper
link
bibtex
@misc{smith2012children,
title={Children of the Corn: The Renewable Fuels Disaster},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={American Enterprise Institute},
pages={},
url={https://www.aei.org/articles/children-of-the-corn-the-renewable-fuels-disaster/},
year={2008}
}
Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030.
Bushnell, J.; Mazzone, D.; Smith, A.; and Witcover, J.
University of California Institute of Transportation Studies Research Report, 2019.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
49 downloads
@misc{bushnell2019uncertainty,
title={Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030},
author={Bushnell, James and Mazzone, Daniel and Smith, Aaron and Witcover, Julie},
howpublished={University of California Institute of Transportation Studies Research Report},
url={https://www.ucits.org/research-project/using-low-carbon-fuel-standard-credits-to-support-low-carbon-fuel-infrastructure-policy-design-issues-and-impacts/},
abstract={California's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) specifies that the state's transportation fuel supply achieve a 20\% reduction in carbon intensity (CI) below 2011 levels by 2030. Reaching the standard will require substantive changes in the fuel mix, but the specifics and the cost of these changes are uncertain. We assess if and how California is likely to achieve the standard, and the likely impact of infrastructure credits on this compliance outlook. We begin by projecting a distribution of fuel and vehicle miles demand under business-as-usual economic and policy variation and transform those projections into a distribution of LCFS net deficits for the entire period from 2019 through 2030. We then construct a variety of scenarios characterizing LCFS credit supply that consider different assumptions regarding input markets, technological adoption over the compliance period, and the efficacy of complementary policies. In our baseline scenario for credit generation, LCFS compliance would require that between 60\% and 80\% of the diesel pool be produced from biomass. Our baseline projections have the number of electric vehicles reaching 1.3 million by 2030, but if the number of electric vehicles reaches Governor Jerry Brown’s goal of 5 million by 2030, then LCFS compliance would require substantially less biomass-based diesel. Outside of rapid zero emission vehicle penetration, compliance in 2030 with the 200 dollar credit price may be much more difficult. New mechanisms to allow firms to generate credits by building electric vehicle charging stations or hydrogen fueling stations have minor implications for overall compliance because the total quantity of infrastructure credits is restricted to be relatively small.},
year={2019}
}
California's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) specifies that the state's transportation fuel supply achieve a 20% reduction in carbon intensity (CI) below 2011 levels by 2030. Reaching the standard will require substantive changes in the fuel mix, but the specifics and the cost of these changes are uncertain. We assess if and how California is likely to achieve the standard, and the likely impact of infrastructure credits on this compliance outlook. We begin by projecting a distribution of fuel and vehicle miles demand under business-as-usual economic and policy variation and transform those projections into a distribution of LCFS net deficits for the entire period from 2019 through 2030. We then construct a variety of scenarios characterizing LCFS credit supply that consider different assumptions regarding input markets, technological adoption over the compliance period, and the efficacy of complementary policies. In our baseline scenario for credit generation, LCFS compliance would require that between 60% and 80% of the diesel pool be produced from biomass. Our baseline projections have the number of electric vehicles reaching 1.3 million by 2030, but if the number of electric vehicles reaches Governor Jerry Brown’s goal of 5 million by 2030, then LCFS compliance would require substantially less biomass-based diesel. Outside of rapid zero emission vehicle penetration, compliance in 2030 with the 200 dollar credit price may be much more difficult. New mechanisms to allow firms to generate credits by building electric vehicle charging stations or hydrogen fueling stations have minor implications for overall compliance because the total quantity of infrastructure credits is restricted to be relatively small.
COVID-19 Relief Programs Have Kept U.S. Farm Income High but Shortchanged California Producers.
Smith, A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2021.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
@misc{smith2021covid,
title={COVID-19 Relief Programs Have Kept U.S. Farm Income High but Shortchanged California Producers},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={24},
number={3},
pages={5-8},
abstract={Since 1950, the only years with higher real net farm income than 2020 were 1973–74 and 2011–14. This high income was facilitated by two waves of COVID-19 relief payments totaling 23.8 billion dollars. A third wave is set to occur in 2021. Most of these payments were determined by seemingly arbitrary formulas and were only weakly tied to pandemic-induced losses. Corn, soybeans, cattle, and milk are the four largest value commodities in the country and they received a disproportionately large share of payments. Specialty crops and dairy, which California specializes in, received some support, but much less as a percent of gross farm income. Congress has allocated a further 13 billion dollars to farmers for COVID-19 relief, most of which is slated to go to the major row crops, livestock, and biofuels.},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1613691580/19988/},
year={2021}
}
Since 1950, the only years with higher real net farm income than 2020 were 1973–74 and 2011–14. This high income was facilitated by two waves of COVID-19 relief payments totaling 23.8 billion dollars. A third wave is set to occur in 2021. Most of these payments were determined by seemingly arbitrary formulas and were only weakly tied to pandemic-induced losses. Corn, soybeans, cattle, and milk are the four largest value commodities in the country and they received a disproportionately large share of payments. Specialty crops and dairy, which California specializes in, received some support, but much less as a percent of gross farm income. Congress has allocated a further 13 billion dollars to farmers for COVID-19 relief, most of which is slated to go to the major row crops, livestock, and biofuels.
The Story of Rising Fertilizer Prices.
Smith, A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2022.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
4 downloads
@misc{smith2022fertilizer,
title={The Story of Rising Fertilizer Prices},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={25},
number={3},
pages={1-4},
abstract={High fertilizer prices in the past year have increased costs for farmers, but for some crops more than others. Multiple potential causes could explain these price increases, stemming from both supply and demand factors. If farmers respond to high prices by using less fertilizer per acre, it will provide an environmental benefit in the form of less nitrogen and phosphorus in streams, rivers, and lakes.},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1645718591/20318/},
year={2022}
}
High fertilizer prices in the past year have increased costs for farmers, but for some crops more than others. Multiple potential causes could explain these price increases, stemming from both supply and demand factors. If farmers respond to high prices by using less fertilizer per acre, it will provide an environmental benefit in the form of less nitrogen and phosphorus in streams, rivers, and lakes.
California Rice Rebounds After a Brutal 2022.
Smith, A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Update, 2023.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
@misc{smith2023rice,
title={California Rice Rebounds After a Brutal 2022},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Agricultural and Resource Economics Update},
volume={27},
number={1},
pages={5-7},
abstract={In 2022, California rice farmers planted half the number of acres they had planted in 2020. Rice acreage had not been that low since 1958. Acreage has rebounded this year, returning to its 2020 level. Rice acreage dropped in 2022 because of a lack of water stemming from a multi-year drought. Surface water deliveries from the Sacramento River were severely curtailed. Multiple storms this past winter restored the flow of the Sacramento River. Rice growers were thus able to return to normal activities in 2023.},
url={https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1699294156/20849/},
year={2023}
}
In 2022, California rice farmers planted half the number of acres they had planted in 2020. Rice acreage had not been that low since 1958. Acreage has rebounded this year, returning to its 2020 level. Rice acreage dropped in 2022 because of a lack of water stemming from a multi-year drought. Surface water deliveries from the Sacramento River were severely curtailed. Multiple storms this past winter restored the flow of the Sacramento River. Rice growers were thus able to return to normal activities in 2023.
How Did Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Affect Global Food Supplies?.
Smith, A.
Choices, 2023.
Paper
link
bibtex
abstract
@misc{smith2023russia,
title={How Did Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Affect Global Food Supplies?},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={Choices},
volume={},
number={},
pages={},
abstract={On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, inflicting horrific violence on the Ukrainian people and capturing the attention of the world. The war has disrupted food supplies to people in Ukraine and to refugees who have fled to neighboring countries. I argue that the invasion’s effects on global food commodity markets were large but not historic. Prices have been high since the invasion, but mostly because they had increased substantially in the 18 months before to the invasion.},
url={ https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/turmoil-in-global-food-agricultural-and--input-markets-implications-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/how-did-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-affect-global-food-supplies},
year={2023}
}
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, inflicting horrific violence on the Ukrainian people and capturing the attention of the world. The war has disrupted food supplies to people in Ukraine and to refugees who have fled to neighboring countries. I argue that the invasion’s effects on global food commodity markets were large but not historic. Prices have been high since the invasion, but mostly because they had increased substantially in the 18 months before to the invasion.
Allowing E15 fuel year-round won’t increase sales very much, but it’s a symbolic victory for corn ethanol advocates.
Smith, A.
The Conversation, 2022.
Paper
link
bibtex
1 download
@misc{smith2022e15,
title={Allowing E15 fuel year-round won’t increase sales very much, but it’s a symbolic victory for corn ethanol advocates},
author={Smith, Aaron},
howpublished={The Conversation},
volume={},
number={},
pages={},
url={https://theconversation.com/allowing-e15-fuel-year-round-wont-increase-sales-very-much-but-its-a-symbolic-victory-for-corn-ethanol-advocates-181394},
year={2022}
}