@article{bamber_expert_2013,
	title = {Expert {Judgement} {Assessment} of {Future} {Sea} {Level} {Rise} from the {Ice} {Sheets}, {An}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1778},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate1778},
	abstract = {A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Bamber, J. L. and Aspinall, W. P.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {424--427},
}

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