@article{bamber_expert_2013,
	title = {Expert {Judgement} {Assessment} of {Future} {Sea} {Level} {Rise} from the {Ice} {Sheets}, {An}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1778},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate1778},
	abstract = {A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2017-06-28},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Bamber, J. L. and Aspinall, W. P.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {KR, Untagged},
	pages = {424--427},
}

{"_id":"wXcfCDS5wXjuG97a8","bibbaseid":"bamber-aspinall-expertjudgementassessmentoffuturesealevelrisefromtheicesheetsan-2013","author_short":["Bamber, J. L.","Aspinall, W. P."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"Expert Judgement Assessment of Future Sea Level Rise from the Ice Sheets, An","volume":"3","issn":"1758-678X, 1758-6798","url":"http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1778","doi":"10.1038/nclimate1778","abstract":"A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided.","number":"4","urldate":"2017-06-28","journal":"Nature Climate Change","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Bamber"],"firstnames":["J.","L."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Aspinall"],"firstnames":["W.","P."],"suffixes":[]}],"month":"January","year":"2013","keywords":"KR, Untagged","pages":"424–427","bibtex":"@article{bamber_expert_2013,\n\ttitle = {Expert {Judgement} {Assessment} of {Future} {Sea} {Level} {Rise} from the {Ice} {Sheets}, {An}},\n\tvolume = {3},\n\tissn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},\n\turl = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1778},\n\tdoi = {10.1038/nclimate1778},\n\tabstract = {A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided.},\n\tnumber = {4},\n\turldate = {2017-06-28},\n\tjournal = {Nature Climate Change},\n\tauthor = {Bamber, J. L. and Aspinall, W. P.},\n\tmonth = jan,\n\tyear = {2013},\n\tkeywords = {KR, Untagged},\n\tpages = {424--427},\n}\n\n\n\n","author_short":["Bamber, J. L.","Aspinall, W. P."],"key":"bamber_expert_2013","id":"bamber_expert_2013","bibbaseid":"bamber-aspinall-expertjudgementassessmentoffuturesealevelrisefromtheicesheetsan-2013","role":"author","urls":{"Paper":"http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1778"},"keyword":["KR","Untagged"],"metadata":{"authorlinks":{}},"html":""},"bibtype":"article","biburl":"http://bibbase.org/zotero-group/ajello/2099979","dataSources":["EndJaSpcpPJCQnJDH"],"keywords":["kr","untagged"],"search_terms":["expert","judgement","assessment","future","sea","level","rise","ice","sheets","bamber","aspinall"],"title":"Expert Judgement Assessment of Future Sea Level Rise from the Ice Sheets, An","year":2013}