Discounting a Distant Future Whose Technology is Unknown. Weitzman, M. L 2004.
Discounting a Distant Future Whose Technology is Unknown [pdf]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
The primary uncertainty affecting the selection of interest rates for long-term discounting is the unknown pace of future technological progress. To address this issue, the paper combines into a single consistent general-equilibrium model two more-basic models of dynamic uncertainty: (1) an economic problem of stochastic optimal growth; (2) a Bayesian statistical problem of forecasting the rate of technological progress. The paper shows that the forward- yield interest rates inherent in such a combined growth-econometric model decrease over time, and analyzes the extent of the decline in terms of fundamental parameters of the underlying real economy.

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