Discounting a Distant Future Whose Technology is Unknown. Weitzman, M. L 2004. Paper abstract bibtex The primary uncertainty affecting the selection of interest rates for long-term discounting is the unknown pace of future technological progress. To address this issue, the paper combines into a single consistent general-equilibrium model two more-basic models of dynamic uncertainty: (1) an economic problem of stochastic optimal growth; (2) a Bayesian statistical problem of forecasting the rate of technological progress. The paper shows that the forward- yield interest rates inherent in such a combined growth-econometric model decrease over time, and analyzes the extent of the decline in terms of fundamental parameters of the underlying real economy.
@misc{weitzman_discounting_2004,
title = {Discounting a {Distant} {Future} {Whose} {Technology} is {Unknown}},
url = {http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/news-and-events/events/guest-lectures-seminars/Thursday-seminar/2004/Thursday-spring04/weitzman-1.pdf},
abstract = {The primary uncertainty affecting the selection of interest rates for long-term discounting is the unknown pace of future technological progress. To address this issue, the paper combines into a single consistent general-equilibrium model two more-basic models of dynamic uncertainty: (1) an economic problem of stochastic optimal growth; (2) a Bayesian statistical problem of forecasting the rate of technological progress. The paper shows that the forward- yield interest rates inherent in such a combined growth-econometric model decrease over time, and analyzes the extent of the decline in terms of fundamental parameters of the underlying real economy.},
urldate = {2017-06-10},
author = {Weitzman, Martin L},
year = {2004},
keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}
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