Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Abbott, B. W., Jones, J. B., Schuur, E. A. G., Chapin, F. S., Bowden, W. B., Bret-Harte, M. S., Epstein, H. E., Flannigan, M. D., Harms, T. K., Hollingsworth, T. N., Mack, M. C., McGuire, A. D., Natali, S. M., Rocha, A. V., Tank, S. E., Turetsky, M. R., Vonk, J. E., Wickland, K. P., Aiken, G. R., Alexander, H. D., Amon, R. M. W., Benscoter, B. W., Bergeron, Y., Bishop, K., Blarquez, O., Bond-Lamberty, B., Breen, A. L., Buffam, I., Cai, Y., Carcaillet, C., Carey, S. K., Chen, J. M., Chen, H. Y. H., Christensen, T. R., Cooper, L. W., Cornelissen, J. H. C., de Groot, W. J., DeLuca, T. H., Dorrepaal, E., Fetcher, N., Finlay, J. C., Forbes, B. C., French, N. H. F., Gauthier, S., Girardin, M. P., Goetz, S. J., Goldammer, J. G., Gough, L., Grogan, P., Guo, L., Higuera, P. E., Hinzman, L., Hu, F. S., Hugelius, G., Jafarov, E. E., Jandt, R., Johnstone, J. F., Karlsson, J., Kasischke, E. S., Kattner, G., Kelly, R., Keuper, F., Kling, G. W., Kortelainen, P., Kouki, J., Kuhry, P., Laudon, H., Laurion, I., Macdonald, R. W., Mann, P. J., Martikainen, P. J., McClelland, J. W., Molau, U., Oberbauer, S. F., Olefeldt, D., Pare, D., Parisien, M., Payette, S., Peng, C., Pokrovsky, O. S., Rastetter, E. B., Raymond, P. A., Raynolds, M. K., Rein, G., Reynolds, J. F., Robards, M., Rogers, B. M., Schaedel, C., Schaefer, K., Schmidt, I. K., Shvidenko, A., Sky, J., Spencer, R. G. M., Starr, G., Striegl, R. G., Teisserenc, R., Tranvik, L. J., Virtanen, T., Welker, J. M., & Zimov, S. Environmental Research Letters, 11(3):034014, March, 2016. 00014
doi  abstract   bibtex   
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
@article{abbott_biomass_2016,
	title = {Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1748-9326},
	shorttitle = {Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014},
	abstract = {As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75\% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65\%-85\% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.},
	language = {English},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	author = {Abbott, Benjamin W. and Jones, Jeremy B. and Schuur, Edward A. G. and Chapin, F. Stuart and Bowden, William B. and Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia and Epstein, Howard E. and Flannigan, Michael D. and Harms, Tamara K. and Hollingsworth, Teresa N. and Mack, Michelle C. and McGuire, A. David and Natali, Susan M. and Rocha, Adrian V. and Tank, Suzanne E. and Turetsky, Merritt R. and Vonk, Jorien E. and Wickland, Kimberly P. and Aiken, George R. and Alexander, Heather D. and Amon, Rainer M. W. and Benscoter, Brian W. and Bergeron, Yves and Bishop, Kevin and Blarquez, Olivier and Bond-Lamberty, Ben and Breen, Amy L. and Buffam, Ishi and Cai, Yihua and Carcaillet, Christopher and Carey, Sean K. and Chen, Jing M. and Chen, Han Y. H. and Christensen, Torben R. and Cooper, Lee W. and Cornelissen, J. Hans C. and de Groot, William J. and DeLuca, Thomas H. and Dorrepaal, Ellen and Fetcher, Ned and Finlay, Jacques C. and Forbes, Bruce C. and French, Nancy H. F. and Gauthier, Sylvie and Girardin, Martin P. and Goetz, Scott J. and Goldammer, Johann G. and Gough, Laura and Grogan, Paul and Guo, Laodong and Higuera, Philip E. and Hinzman, Larry and Hu, Feng Sheng and Hugelius, Gustaf and Jafarov, Elchin E. and Jandt, Randi and Johnstone, Jill F. and Karlsson, Jan and Kasischke, Eric S. and Kattner, Gerhard and Kelly, Ryan and Keuper, Frida and Kling, George W. and Kortelainen, Pirkko and Kouki, Jari and Kuhry, Peter and Laudon, Hjalmar and Laurion, Isabelle and Macdonald, Robie W. and Mann, Paul J. and Martikainen, Pertti J. and McClelland, James W. and Molau, Ulf and Oberbauer, Steven F. and Olefeldt, David and Pare, David and Parisien, Marc-Andre and Payette, Serge and Peng, Changhui and Pokrovsky, Oleg S. and Rastetter, Edward B. and Raymond, Peter A. and Raynolds, Martha K. and Rein, Guillermo and Reynolds, James F. and Robards, Martin and Rogers, Brendan M. and Schaedel, Christina and Schaefer, Kevin and Schmidt, Inger K. and Shvidenko, Anatoly and Sky, Jasper and Spencer, Robert G. M. and Starr, Gregory and Striegl, Robert G. and Teisserenc, Roman and Tranvik, Lars J. and Virtanen, Tarmo and Welker, Jeffrey M. and Zimov, Sergei},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	note = {00014},
	keywords = {\#nosource, Arctic, Boreal forest, Ecosystems, arctic tundra, boreal, climate-change, coastal erosion, dissolved organic carbon, fire, interior alaska, nitrogen deposition, particulate organic carbon, permafrost carbon, sequestration, storage, vulnerability, wildfire},
	pages = {034014},
}
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