AGRICULTURAL BIOTECHNOLOGY: potential for use in developing countries. Abdalla, A., Berry, P., Connell, P., Tran, Q., T., & Buetre, B. 2003.
AGRICULTURAL BIOTECHNOLOGY:  potential for use in developing countries [pdf]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
[From Summary] A general conclusion to be drawn from the results of this analysis is that agricultural biotechnology could generate substantial economic gains in regions where it is introduced. The results suggest that, with full adoption of GM technology, aggregate income for all regions, measured by gross national product (GNP), is estimated to rise by US$210 billion a year, by the end of the period. With restrictive EU production and trade policies for GM products in the second scenario and, added to that, reduction in the scope of adoption by low income developing countries in the third scenario, gains in global welfare are estimated to be lower — US$167 billion and US$134 billion respectively. Among different country groups, potential gains in GNP from the uptake of biotechnology are highest for developing countries, ranging between 2.1 per cent for low income regions and 0.5 per cent for middle income regions. These gains arise because the benefits to consumers through reduced prices for agricultural products are accentuated by the large share of food in total expenditure in these regions. Moreover, productivity gains for low income developing countries have been assumed to be above the world average in agriculture. As a result, crop production costs are projected to fall by more than prices received by producers, leading to increased margins for farmers and enabling low income developing countries to compete more effectively on global markets.

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