Solving the Commodity Markets' Non-Convergence Puzzle. Adjemian, M., Garcia, P., Irwin, S., & ˘lineSmith, A. Amber Waves, 2013.
Paper abstract bibtex From 2005 to 2010, the price of expiring U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat futures contracts settled much higher than corresponding delivery market cash prices. Sustained non-convergence between cash and settled futures prices can make hedging less effective, send confusing signals to the market, threaten the viability of a contract, and ultimately lead to a misallocation of agricultural resources. Study findings show that the observed non-convergence was an unintended consequence of market design: the process by which futures contracts were terminated allowed the futures and cash prices to diverge.
@misc{adjemian2013solving,
title={Solving the Commodity Markets' Non-Convergence Puzzle},
author={Adjemian, Michael and Garcia, Philip and Irwin, Scott and \uline{Smith}, Aaron},
url={https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2013/august/solving-the-commodity-markets-non-convergence-puzzle/},
howpublished={Amber Waves},
number={7},
keywords={commodities},
year={2013},
abstract={From 2005 to 2010, the price of expiring U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat futures contracts settled much higher than corresponding delivery market cash prices. Sustained non-convergence between cash and settled futures prices can make hedging less effective, send confusing signals to the market, threaten the viability of a contract, and ultimately lead to a misallocation of agricultural resources. Study findings show that the observed non-convergence was an unintended consequence of market design: the process by which futures contracts were terminated allowed the futures and cash prices to diverge.},
publisher={United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service},
addendum={\textbf{Winner of Quality of Communication Award, AAEA, 2014}}
}
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