How Do Natural Hazards Cascade to Cause Disasters?. AghaKouchak, A., Huning, L. S., Chiang, F., Sadegh, M., Vahedifard, F., Mazdiyasni, O., Moftakhari, H., & Mallakpour, I. 561(7724):458–460.
How Do Natural Hazards Cascade to Cause Disasters? [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Track connections between hurricanes, wildfires, climate change and other risks, urge Amir AghaKouchak and colleagues. [Excerpt] [...] The unprecedented severity of many of these fires might be a sign of global warming, with worse to come. But it also highlights how extreme events are connected. Many of the fires followed long periods of drought and record temperatures. Their occurrence also loads the dice for devastating future hazards. [] Charred landscapes are more vulnerable to flooding and landslides. [...] Risk assessments should be expanded to consider cascading hazards. Otherwise, we cannot plan for the scale and nature of upcoming disasters. Researchers must find answers to these questions: how will climate change alter the risk of disastrous domino effects? What are the implications for the built environment? And what mitigation and adaptation measures are needed to cope with more severe interlinked disasters? [...] [] Dry and warm conditions increase the risk of wildfires, which damage the soil and set the stage for later landslides and flooding. Snow and ice melt earlier, altering the timing of run-off. [..] With less snow and ice in the Northern Hemisphere, the cooling effect provided by the reflection of sunlight from Earth's surface dropped by 10-20\,% between 1979 and 2008 (relative to its mean value during this period). And these links now spread further: wildfires are occurring at ever-higher elevations and latitudes [...], where they remove the forest canopy and alter where and how snow accumulates. Soot deposited on the snow absorbs heat and speeds up melting. Likewise, dust released during droughts hastens melting [...]. Dust transported from arid regions of Africa influences the snow caps of Europe, North America and Asia. [...] [] Many research gaps remain to be filled. Physical cascading mechanisms, such as the impacts of wildfire soot on snowpacks or ocean waves on coastal landslides, and their feedbacks, are poorly understood. Assuming events are independent also gives a false sense of how often these events should be expected to occur, which, in turn, affects disaster preparedness. [...] [] Historical records might not hold all the answers. It is also hard to disentangle causes and effects in complex networks, especially in managed systems. Quantifying how an initial event increases or reduces risks from succeeding events, and predicting their timing, is difficult. [...] Data are sparse, especially from remote regions such as rugged mountains. Agencies and countries do not always share data. Different disciplines and regions use different definitions. Key observations are missing. [...] The range of data collected for hazard analysis needs to be expanded, in space and on the ground. Observations should be consistent around the globe and shared openly. [...]
@article{aghakouchakHowNaturalHazards2018,
  title = {How Do Natural Hazards Cascade to Cause Disasters?},
  author = {AghaKouchak, Amir and Huning, Laurie S. and Chiang, Felicia and Sadegh, Mojtaba and Vahedifard, Farshid and Mazdiyasni, Omid and Moftakhari, Hamed and Mallakpour, Iman},
  date = {2018-09},
  journaltitle = {Nature},
  volume = {561},
  pages = {458--460},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06783-6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-06783-6},
  abstract = {Track connections between hurricanes, wildfires, climate change and other risks, urge Amir AghaKouchak and colleagues.

[Excerpt] [...] The unprecedented severity of many of these fires might be a sign of global warming, with worse to come. But it also highlights how extreme events are connected. Many of the fires followed long periods of drought and record temperatures. Their occurrence also loads the dice for devastating future hazards.

[] Charred landscapes are more vulnerable to flooding and landslides. [...] Risk assessments should be expanded to consider cascading hazards. Otherwise, we cannot plan for the scale and nature of upcoming disasters. Researchers must find answers to these questions: how will climate change alter the risk of disastrous domino effects? What are the implications for the built environment? And what mitigation and adaptation measures are needed to cope with more severe interlinked disasters? [...]

[] Dry and warm conditions increase the risk of wildfires, which damage the soil and set the stage for later landslides and flooding. Snow and ice melt earlier, altering the timing of run-off. [..] With less snow and ice in the Northern Hemisphere, the cooling effect provided by the reflection of sunlight from Earth's surface dropped by 10-20\,\% between 1979 and 2008 (relative to its mean value during this period).

And these links now spread further: wildfires are occurring at ever-higher elevations and latitudes [...], where they remove the forest canopy and alter where and how snow accumulates. Soot deposited on the snow absorbs heat and speeds up melting. Likewise, dust released during droughts hastens melting [...]. Dust transported from arid regions of Africa influences the snow caps of Europe, North America and Asia. [...]

[] Many research gaps remain to be filled. Physical cascading mechanisms, such as the impacts of wildfire soot on snowpacks or ocean waves on coastal landslides, and their feedbacks, are poorly understood. Assuming events are independent also gives a false sense of how often these events should be expected to occur, which, in turn, affects disaster preparedness. [...]

[] Historical records might not hold all the answers. It is also hard to disentangle causes and effects in complex networks, especially in managed systems. Quantifying how an initial event increases or reduces risks from succeeding events, and predicting their timing, is difficult. [...] Data are sparse, especially from remote regions such as rugged mountains. Agencies and countries do not always share data. Different disciplines and regions use different definitions. Key observations are missing. [...] The range of data collected for hazard analysis needs to be expanded, in space and on the ground. Observations should be consistent around the globe and shared openly. [...]},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14640225,albedo,cyclone,disasters,environmental-modelling,forest-resources,integrated-modelling,knowledge-integration,landslides,melting-acceleration,muddy-floods,natural-hazards,snow,soil-resources,transdisciplinary-research,vegetation,water-resources,wildfires,windstorm},
  number = {7724}
}
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