Blessing or Burden? The Impact of Refugees on Businesses and the Informal Economy. Altındag, O., Bakıs, O., & Rozo, S. V. In February, 2018.
Blessing or Burden? The Impact of Refugees on Businesses and the Informal Economy [pdf]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
We study the impact of more than 3 million Syrian refugees on local businesses in Turkey, using the annual censuses of firms with more than 20 employees from 2006 to 2015. Our identification strategy exploits the fact that when the Syrian conflict intensified, Syrian refugees disproportionately moved to Turkish provinces with a higher concentration of Arabic-speaking populations. We find that Turkish firms experience a large positive demand shock induced by the refugees’ migration which is mostly concentrated in the informal economy. These effects are larger for smaller firms and those that operate in the construction or hotels sectors. We also provide evidence suggesting that informal hiring from the refugee population contributes to increased firm production by lowering the cost of labor.

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