Climate change will increase savannas at the expense of forests and treeless vegetation in tropical and subtropical Americas. Anadón, J. D., Sala, O. E., & Maestre, F. T. Journal of Ecology, 102:1363–1373. doi: 10.1111/1365–2745.12325, 2014. abstract bibtex 1. Transition areas between biomes are particularly sensitive to environmental changes. Our understanding of the impacts of ongoing climate change on terrestrial ecosystems has significantly increased during the last years. However, it is largely unknown how climatic change will affect transitions among major vegetation types. 2. We modelled the distribution of three alternative states (forest, savanna and treeless areas) in the tropical and subtropical Americas by means of climate-niche modelling. We studied how such distribution will change by the year 2070 by using 17 downscaled and calibrated global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the latest scenarios provided by the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. 3. Our results support the savannization of the tropical and subtropical Americas because of climate change, with an increase in savannas mainly at the expense of forests. 4. Our models predict an important geographical shift in the current distribution of transition areas between forest and savannas, which is much less pronounced in the case of those between savannas and treeless areas. Largest shifts, up to 600 km northward, are predicted in the forest�savanna transitions located in the eastern Amazon. 5. Our findings indicate that climate change will promote a shift towards more unstable states: the extent of the transition areas will notably increase, and largely stable forest areas are predicted to shrink dramatically. 6. Synthesis. Our work explores dimensions of the impact of climate change on biomes that have received little attention so far. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent of savanna, forest and treeless areas in the tropical and subtropical Americas, but also will: (i) promote a significant geographical shift and an increase of the extent of transition areas between biomes and (ii) decrease the stability of the equilibrium between forest, savanna and treeless areas, yielding a more unpredictable system.
@article{anadon_climate_2014,
title = {Climate change will increase savannas at the expense of forests and treeless vegetation in tropical and subtropical {Americas}},
volume = {102},
abstract = {1. Transition areas between biomes are particularly sensitive to environmental changes. Our understanding
of the impacts of ongoing climate change on terrestrial ecosystems has significantly
increased during the last years. However, it is largely unknown how climatic change will affect transitions
among major vegetation types.
2. We modelled the distribution of three alternative states (forest, savanna and treeless areas) in the
tropical and subtropical Americas by means of climate-niche modelling. We studied how such distribution
will change by the year 2070 by using 17 downscaled and calibrated global climate models
from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the latest scenarios provided by the
5th Assessment Report of the IPCC.
3. Our results support the savannization of the tropical and subtropical Americas because of climate
change, with an increase in savannas mainly at the expense of forests.
4. Our models predict an important geographical shift in the current distribution of transition areas
between forest and savannas, which is much less pronounced in the case of those between savannas
and treeless areas. Largest shifts, up to 600 km northward, are predicted in the forest�savanna transitions
located in the eastern Amazon.
5. Our findings indicate that climate change will promote a shift towards more unstable states: the
extent of the transition areas will notably increase, and largely stable forest areas are predicted to
shrink dramatically.
6. Synthesis. Our work explores dimensions of the impact of climate change on biomes that have
received little attention so far. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent
of savanna, forest and treeless areas in the tropical and subtropical Americas, but also will: (i) promote
a significant geographical shift and an increase of the extent of transition areas between biomes
and (ii) decrease the stability of the equilibrium between forest, savanna and treeless areas, yielding
a more unpredictable system.},
journal = {Journal of Ecology},
author = {Anadón, José D. and Sala, Osvaldo E. and Maestre, Fernando T.},
year = {2014},
keywords = {LTER, article, climate-change impacts, forest, journal, plant�climate interactions, savanna, treeless vegetation, vegetation transitions},
pages = {1363--1373. doi: 10.1111/1365--2745.12325}
}
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Our understanding of the impacts of ongoing climate change on terrestrial ecosystems has significantly increased during the last years. However, it is largely unknown how climatic change will affect transitions among major vegetation types. 2. We modelled the distribution of three alternative states (forest, savanna and treeless areas) in the tropical and subtropical Americas by means of climate-niche modelling. We studied how such distribution will change by the year 2070 by using 17 downscaled and calibrated global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the latest scenarios provided by the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. 3. Our results support the savannization of the tropical and subtropical Americas because of climate change, with an increase in savannas mainly at the expense of forests. 4. Our models predict an important geographical shift in the current distribution of transition areas between forest and savannas, which is much less pronounced in the case of those between savannas and treeless areas. Largest shifts, up to 600 km northward, are predicted in the forest�savanna transitions located in the eastern Amazon. 5. Our findings indicate that climate change will promote a shift towards more unstable states: the extent of the transition areas will notably increase, and largely stable forest areas are predicted to shrink dramatically. 6. Synthesis. Our work explores dimensions of the impact of climate change on biomes that have received little attention so far. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent of savanna, forest and treeless areas in the tropical and subtropical Americas, but also will: (i) promote a significant geographical shift and an increase of the extent of transition areas between biomes and (ii) decrease the stability of the equilibrium between forest, savanna and treeless areas, yielding a more unpredictable system.","journal":"Journal of Ecology","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Anadón"],"firstnames":["José","D."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Sala"],"firstnames":["Osvaldo","E."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Maestre"],"firstnames":["Fernando","T."],"suffixes":[]}],"year":"2014","keywords":"LTER, article, climate-change impacts, forest, journal, plant�climate interactions, savanna, treeless vegetation, vegetation transitions","pages":"1363–1373. doi: 10.1111/1365–2745.12325","bibtex":"@article{anadon_climate_2014,\n\ttitle = {Climate change will increase savannas at the expense of forests and treeless vegetation in tropical and subtropical {Americas}},\n\tvolume = {102},\n\tabstract = {1. 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Our models predict an important geographical shift in the current distribution of transition areas\nbetween forest and savannas, which is much less pronounced in the case of those between savannas\nand treeless areas. Largest shifts, up to 600 km northward, are predicted in the forest�savanna transitions\nlocated in the eastern Amazon.\n5. Our findings indicate that climate change will promote a shift towards more unstable states: the\nextent of the transition areas will notably increase, and largely stable forest areas are predicted to\nshrink dramatically.\n6. Synthesis. Our work explores dimensions of the impact of climate change on biomes that have\nreceived little attention so far. 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