@article{ ISI:000293097200027,
Author = {Andonegi, Eider and Antonio Fernandes, Jose and Quincoces, Inaki and
   Irigoien, Xabier and Uriarte, Andres and Perez, Aritz and Howel, Daniel
   and Stefanssons, Gunnar},
Title = {{The potential use of a Gadget model to predict stock responses to
   climate change in combination with Bayesian networks: the case of Bay of
   Biscay anchovy}},
Journal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},
Year = {{2011}},
Volume = {{68}},
Number = {{6}},
Pages = {{1257-1269}},
Month = {{JUL}},
Abstract = {{The European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) is a short-lived pelagic
   species distributed in Atlantic European waters, with the Bay of Biscay
   being one of the main centres of abundance. Because it is a short-lived
   species, the state of the stock is determined largely by incoming
   recruitment. Recruitment is highly variable and depends on a variety of
   factors, such as the size of the spawning stock and environmental
   conditions in the area. The use of a coupled model that could serve to
   predict the evolution of the anchovy stock in the short, medium, and
   long term under several fishing-pressure scenarios and given climate
   scenarios is demonstrated. This coupled model consists of a Gadget
   (Globally Applicable Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox) model that
   was used to analyse the status of the Bay of Biscay anchovy population
   and to simulate future scenarios based on the estimated recruitment
   levels, combined with a probabilistic Bayesian network model for
   recruitment estimation based on machine-learning methods and using
   climatic indices as potential forecasting factors. The results indicate
   that certain combinations of medium to high fishing pressure and adverse
   environmental conditions could force the stock outside its biological
   reference boundaries.}},
Publisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},
Address = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},
Type = {{Article}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Andonegi, E (Reprint Author), Txatxarramendi Ugartea Zg, Azti Tecnalia, E-48395 Bizkaia, Basque Country, Spain.
   Andonegi, Eider; Quincoces, Inaki, Txatxarramendi Ugartea Zg, Azti Tecnalia, E-48395 Bizkaia, Basque Country, Spain.
   Antonio Fernandes, Jose; Irigoien, Xabier; Uriarte, Andres, Herrera Kaia Portu Aldea Zg, Azti Tecnalia, E-20170 Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain.
   Perez, Aritz, Univ Basque Country, ISG, Dept Comp Sci \& AI, E-20078 Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain.
   Howel, Daniel, Inst Marine Res, N-5817 Bergen, Norway.
   Stefanssons, Gunnar, Univ Iceland, Dept Math, IS-121 Reykjavik, Iceland.
   Stefanssons, Gunnar, Marine Res Inst, IS-121 Reykjavik, Iceland.}},
DOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsr087}},
ISSN = {{1054-3139}},
EISSN = {{1095-9289}},
Keywords = {{anchovy; Bay of Biscay; Bayesian networks; climate; Gadget; recruitment.}},
Keywords-Plus = {{ENGRAULIS-ENCRASICOLUS RECRUITMENT; FISH RECRUITMENT; ENVIRONMENT;
   FISHERIES; SEA; POPULATIONS; FRAMEWORK; ALGORITHMS; CALIFORNIA;
   REGRESSION}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Web-of-Science-Categories  = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Author-Email = {{eandonegi@azti.es}},
ResearcherID-Numbers = {{Irigoien, Xabier/B-8171-2009
   Andonegi, Eider/L-3092-2017
   Fernandes, Jose A./B-8985-2009}},
ORCID-Numbers = {{Irigoien, Xabier/0000-0002-5411-6741
   Andonegi, Eider/0000-0002-0358-7412
   Fernandes, Jose A./0000-0003-4677-6077}},
Funding-Acknowledgement = {{European Commission {[}022717, 212085]; Fisheries and Agriculture
   Department of the Basque Government; Fundacion Centros Tecnologicos
   Inaki Goenaga}},
Funding-Text = {{This study was done with financial support from the European Commission
   (Contract No. 022717, UNCOVER: Understanding the mechanisms of stock
   recovery and Contract No. 212085, MEECE: Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a
   Changing Environment), supported within Theme 6: Environment of the
   Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development.
   The conclusions do not necessarily reflect Commission views and in no
   way anticipate the Commission's future policy in this area. We also
   thank the Fisheries and Agriculture Department of the Basque Government
   for financial support, in particular for the ECOANCHOA and ECOSISTEMA
   projects, and the University of the Basque Country for technical
   support. JAF was supported by a doctoral fellowship from the Fundacion
   Centros Tecnologicos Inaki Goenaga. We acknowledge in particular Leire
   Ibaibarriaga (AZTI-Tecnalia), two anonymous referees, and the guest
   editor for their helpful comments and support. This paper is
   contribution number 514 from AZTI-Tecnalia (Marine Research Division).}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{77}},
Times-Cited = {{7}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{1}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{16}},
Journal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. Sci.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{797BI}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000293097200027}},
OA = {{No}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}

{"_id":"F82o4spEinZqBBBnR","bibbaseid":"andonegi-antoniofernandes-quincoces-irigoien-uriarte-perez-howel-stefanssons-thepotentialuseofagadgetmodeltopredictstockresponsestoclimatechangeincombinationwithbayesiannetworksthecaseofbayofbiscayanchovy-2011","downloads":0,"creationDate":"2017-08-17T14:08:07.602Z","title":"The potential use of a Gadget model to predict stock responses to climate change in combination with Bayesian networks: the case of Bay of Biscay anchovy","author_short":["Andonegi, E.","Antonio Fernandes, J.","Quincoces, I.","Irigoien, X.","Uriarte, A.","Perez, A.","Howel, D.","Stefanssons, G."],"year":2011,"bibtype":"article","biburl":"http://flr-project.org/flr.bib","bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"Article","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Andonegi"],"firstnames":["Eider"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Antonio","Fernandes"],"firstnames":["Jose"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Quincoces"],"firstnames":["Inaki"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Irigoien"],"firstnames":["Xabier"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Uriarte"],"firstnames":["Andres"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Perez"],"firstnames":["Aritz"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Howel"],"firstnames":["Daniel"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Stefanssons"],"firstnames":["Gunnar"],"suffixes":[]}],"title":"The potential use of a Gadget model to predict stock responses to climate change in combination with Bayesian networks: the case of Bay of Biscay anchovy","journal":"ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE","year":"2011","volume":"68","number":"6","pages":"1257-1269","month":"JUL","abstract":"The European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) is a short-lived pelagic species distributed in Atlantic European waters, with the Bay of Biscay being one of the main centres of abundance. Because it is a short-lived species, the state of the stock is determined largely by incoming recruitment. Recruitment is highly variable and depends on a variety of factors, such as the size of the spawning stock and environmental conditions in the area. The use of a coupled model that could serve to predict the evolution of the anchovy stock in the short, medium, and long term under several fishing-pressure scenarios and given climate scenarios is demonstrated. This coupled model consists of a Gadget (Globally Applicable Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox) model that was used to analyse the status of the Bay of Biscay anchovy population and to simulate future scenarios based on the estimated recruitment levels, combined with a probabilistic Bayesian network model for recruitment estimation based on machine-learning methods and using climatic indices as potential forecasting factors. The results indicate that certain combinations of medium to high fishing pressure and adverse environmental conditions could force the stock outside its biological reference boundaries.","publisher":"OXFORD UNIV PRESS","address":"GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND","language":"English","affiliation":"Andonegi, E (Reprint Author), Txatxarramendi Ugartea Zg, Azti Tecnalia, E-48395 Bizkaia, Basque Country, Spain. Andonegi, Eider; Quincoces, Inaki, Txatxarramendi Ugartea Zg, Azti Tecnalia, E-48395 Bizkaia, Basque Country, Spain. Antonio Fernandes, Jose; Irigoien, Xabier; Uriarte, Andres, Herrera Kaia Portu Aldea Zg, Azti Tecnalia, E-20170 Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain. Perez, Aritz, Univ Basque Country, ISG, Dept Comp Sci & AI, E-20078 Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain. Howel, Daniel, Inst Marine Res, N-5817 Bergen, Norway. Stefanssons, Gunnar, Univ Iceland, Dept Math, IS-121 Reykjavik, Iceland. Stefanssons, Gunnar, Marine Res Inst, IS-121 Reykjavik, Iceland.","doi":"10.1093/icesjms/fsr087","issn":"1054-3139","eissn":"1095-9289","keywords":"anchovy; Bay of Biscay; Bayesian networks; climate; Gadget; recruitment.","keywords-plus":"ENGRAULIS-ENCRASICOLUS RECRUITMENT; FISH RECRUITMENT; ENVIRONMENT; FISHERIES; SEA; POPULATIONS; FRAMEWORK; ALGORITHMS; CALIFORNIA; REGRESSION","research-areas":"Fisheries; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography","web-of-science-categories":"Fisheries; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography","author-email":"eandonegi@azti.es","researcherid-numbers":"Irigoien, Xabier/B-8171-2009 Andonegi, Eider/L-3092-2017 Fernandes, Jose A./B-8985-2009","orcid-numbers":"Irigoien, Xabier/0000-0002-5411-6741 Andonegi, Eider/0000-0002-0358-7412 Fernandes, Jose A./0000-0003-4677-6077","funding-acknowledgement":"European Commission [022717, 212085]; Fisheries and Agriculture Department of the Basque Government; Fundacion Centros Tecnologicos Inaki Goenaga","funding-text":"This study was done with financial support from the European Commission (Contract No. 022717, UNCOVER: Understanding the mechanisms of stock recovery and Contract No. 212085, MEECE: Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment), supported within Theme 6: Environment of the Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development. The conclusions do not necessarily reflect Commission views and in no way anticipate the Commission's future policy in this area. We also thank the Fisheries and Agriculture Department of the Basque Government for financial support, in particular for the ECOANCHOA and ECOSISTEMA projects, and the University of the Basque Country for technical support. JAF was supported by a doctoral fellowship from the Fundacion Centros Tecnologicos Inaki Goenaga. We acknowledge in particular Leire Ibaibarriaga (AZTI-Tecnalia), two anonymous referees, and the guest editor for their helpful comments and support. This paper is contribution number 514 from AZTI-Tecnalia (Marine Research Division).","number-of-cited-references":"77","times-cited":"7","usage-count-last-180-days":"1","usage-count-since-2013":"16","journal-iso":"ICES J. Mar. Sci.","doc-delivery-number":"797BI","unique-id":"ISI:000293097200027","oa":"No","da":"2017-08-17","bibtex":"@article{ ISI:000293097200027,\nAuthor = {Andonegi, Eider and Antonio Fernandes, Jose and Quincoces, Inaki and\n Irigoien, Xabier and Uriarte, Andres and Perez, Aritz and Howel, Daniel\n and Stefanssons, Gunnar},\nTitle = {{The potential use of a Gadget model to predict stock responses to\n climate change in combination with Bayesian networks: the case of Bay of\n Biscay anchovy}},\nJournal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},\nYear = {{2011}},\nVolume = {{68}},\nNumber = {{6}},\nPages = {{1257-1269}},\nMonth = {{JUL}},\nAbstract = {{The European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) is a short-lived pelagic\n species distributed in Atlantic European waters, with the Bay of Biscay\n being one of the main centres of abundance. Because it is a short-lived\n species, the state of the stock is determined largely by incoming\n recruitment. Recruitment is highly variable and depends on a variety of\n factors, such as the size of the spawning stock and environmental\n conditions in the area. The use of a coupled model that could serve to\n predict the evolution of the anchovy stock in the short, medium, and\n long term under several fishing-pressure scenarios and given climate\n scenarios is demonstrated. This coupled model consists of a Gadget\n (Globally Applicable Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox) model that\n was used to analyse the status of the Bay of Biscay anchovy population\n and to simulate future scenarios based on the estimated recruitment\n levels, combined with a probabilistic Bayesian network model for\n recruitment estimation based on machine-learning methods and using\n climatic indices as potential forecasting factors. The results indicate\n that certain combinations of medium to high fishing pressure and adverse\n environmental conditions could force the stock outside its biological\n reference boundaries.}},\nPublisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},\nAddress = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},\nType = {{Article}},\nLanguage = {{English}},\nAffiliation = {{Andonegi, E (Reprint Author), Txatxarramendi Ugartea Zg, Azti Tecnalia, E-48395 Bizkaia, Basque Country, Spain.\n Andonegi, Eider; Quincoces, Inaki, Txatxarramendi Ugartea Zg, Azti Tecnalia, E-48395 Bizkaia, Basque Country, Spain.\n Antonio Fernandes, Jose; Irigoien, Xabier; Uriarte, Andres, Herrera Kaia Portu Aldea Zg, Azti Tecnalia, E-20170 Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain.\n Perez, Aritz, Univ Basque Country, ISG, Dept Comp Sci \\& AI, E-20078 Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain.\n Howel, Daniel, Inst Marine Res, N-5817 Bergen, Norway.\n Stefanssons, Gunnar, Univ Iceland, Dept Math, IS-121 Reykjavik, Iceland.\n Stefanssons, Gunnar, Marine Res Inst, IS-121 Reykjavik, Iceland.}},\nDOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsr087}},\nISSN = {{1054-3139}},\nEISSN = {{1095-9289}},\nKeywords = {{anchovy; Bay of Biscay; Bayesian networks; climate; Gadget; recruitment.}},\nKeywords-Plus = {{ENGRAULIS-ENCRASICOLUS RECRUITMENT; FISH RECRUITMENT; ENVIRONMENT;\n FISHERIES; SEA; POPULATIONS; FRAMEWORK; ALGORITHMS; CALIFORNIA;\n REGRESSION}},\nResearch-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \\& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},\nWeb-of-Science-Categories = {{Fisheries; Marine \\& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},\nAuthor-Email = {{eandonegi@azti.es}},\nResearcherID-Numbers = {{Irigoien, Xabier/B-8171-2009\n Andonegi, Eider/L-3092-2017\n Fernandes, Jose A./B-8985-2009}},\nORCID-Numbers = {{Irigoien, Xabier/0000-0002-5411-6741\n Andonegi, Eider/0000-0002-0358-7412\n Fernandes, Jose A./0000-0003-4677-6077}},\nFunding-Acknowledgement = {{European Commission {[}022717, 212085]; Fisheries and Agriculture\n Department of the Basque Government; Fundacion Centros Tecnologicos\n Inaki Goenaga}},\nFunding-Text = {{This study was done with financial support from the European Commission\n (Contract No. 022717, UNCOVER: Understanding the mechanisms of stock\n recovery and Contract No. 212085, MEECE: Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a\n Changing Environment), supported within Theme 6: Environment of the\n Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development.\n The conclusions do not necessarily reflect Commission views and in no\n way anticipate the Commission's future policy in this area. We also\n thank the Fisheries and Agriculture Department of the Basque Government\n for financial support, in particular for the ECOANCHOA and ECOSISTEMA\n projects, and the University of the Basque Country for technical\n support. JAF was supported by a doctoral fellowship from the Fundacion\n Centros Tecnologicos Inaki Goenaga. We acknowledge in particular Leire\n Ibaibarriaga (AZTI-Tecnalia), two anonymous referees, and the guest\n editor for their helpful comments and support. This paper is\n contribution number 514 from AZTI-Tecnalia (Marine Research Division).}},\nNumber-of-Cited-References = {{77}},\nTimes-Cited = {{7}},\nUsage-Count-Last-180-days = {{1}},\nUsage-Count-Since-2013 = {{16}},\nJournal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. 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