Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rötter, R. P., Lobell, D. B., Cammarano, D., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., Reynolds, M. P., Alderman, P. D., Prasad, P. V. V., Aggarwal, P. K., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Koehler, A., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O’Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Ruane, A. C., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wallach, D., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z., & Zhu, Y. Nature Climate Change, 5(2):143–147, February, 2015.

Paper doi abstract bibtex

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

@article{asseng_rising_2015,
	title = {Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production},
	volume = {5},
	copyright = {© 2014 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {1758-678X},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n2/full/nclimate2470.html},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2470},
	abstract = {Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6\% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2015-02-26},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Asseng, S. and Ewert, F. and Martre, P. and Rötter, R. P. and Lobell, D. B. and Cammarano, D. and Kimball, B. A. and Ottman, M. J. and Wall, G. W. and White, J. W. and Reynolds, M. P. and Alderman, P. D. and Prasad, P. V. V. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Anothai, J. and Basso, B. and Biernath, C. and Challinor, A. J. and De Sanctis, G. and Doltra, J. and Fereres, E. and Garcia-Vila, M. and Gayler, S. and Hoogenboom, G. and Hunt, L. A. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Jabloun, M. and Jones, C. D. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Koehler, A.-K. and Müller, C. and Naresh Kumar, S. and Nendel, C. and O’Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Eyshi Rezaei, E. and Ruane, A. C. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and Stöckle, C. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Thorburn, P. J. and Waha, K. and Wang, E. and Wallach, D. and Wolf, J. and Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, agriculture-food-famine, climate},
	pages = {143--147},
	file = {Asseng et al. - 2015 - Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\WNX3JWN2\\Asseng et al. - 2015 - Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.pdf:application/pdf}
}

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