Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries. Azose, J. J. & Raftery, A. E. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(1):116–122, January, 2019.
Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Significance Despite the importance of international migration, estimates of between-country migration flows are still imprecise. Reliable record keeping of migration events is typically available only in the developed world, and the best existing methods to produce global migration flow estimates are burdened by strong assumptions. We produce estimates of migration flows between all pairs of countries at 5-year intervals, revealing patterns obscured by previous estimation methods. In particular, our estimates reveal large bidirectional movements in all global regions, with roughly one-quarter of migration events consisting of returns to an individual’s country of birth. , We propose a method for estimating migration flows between all pairs of countries that allows for decomposition of migration into emigration, return, and transit components. Current state-of-the-art estimates of bilateral migration flows rely on the assumption that the number of global migrants is as small as possible. We relax this assumption, producing complete estimates of all between-country migration flows with genuine estimates of total global migration. We find that the total number of individuals migrating internationally has oscillated between 1.13 and 1.29% of the global population per 5-year period since 1990. Return migration and transit migration are big parts of total migration; roughly one of four migration events is a return to an individual’s country of birth. In the most recent time period, we estimate particularly large return migration flows from the United States to Central and South America and from the Persian Gulf to south Asia.
@article{azose_estimation_2019,
	title = {Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries},
	volume = {116},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {https://pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1722334116},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1722334116},
	abstract = {Significance
            Despite the importance of international migration, estimates of between-country migration flows are still imprecise. Reliable record keeping of migration events is typically available only in the developed world, and the best existing methods to produce global migration flow estimates are burdened by strong assumptions. We produce estimates of migration flows between all pairs of countries at 5-year intervals, revealing patterns obscured by previous estimation methods. In particular, our estimates reveal large bidirectional movements in all global regions, with roughly one-quarter of migration events consisting of returns to an individual’s country of birth.
          , 
            We propose a method for estimating migration flows between all pairs of countries that allows for decomposition of migration into emigration, return, and transit components. Current state-of-the-art estimates of bilateral migration flows rely on the assumption that the number of global migrants is as small as possible. We relax this assumption, producing complete estimates of all between-country migration flows with genuine estimates of total global migration. We find that the total number of individuals migrating internationally has oscillated between 1.13 and 1.29\% of the global population per 5-year period since 1990. Return migration and transit migration are big parts of total migration; roughly one of four migration events is a return to an individual’s country of birth. In the most recent time period, we estimate particularly large return migration flows from the United States to Central and South America and from the Persian Gulf to south Asia.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-02-09},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Azose, Jonathan J. and Raftery, Adrian E.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {116--122},
}

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