@InProceedings{Baltra24a,
	author = 	"Guillermo Baltra and Xiao Song and John Heidemann",
	title = 	"Ebb and Flow: Implications of {ISP} Address Dynamics",
        booktitle =     "Proceedings of the " # " Passive and Active Measurement Workshop",
        year =          2024,
	sortdate = 		"2024-03-11", 
	project = "ant, eieio, minceq",
        month =      mar,
        address =    "Virtual Location",
        publisher =  "Springer",
        jlocation =   "johnh: pafile",
        keywords =   "trinocular, outages, ISP address use",
	url =		"https://ant.isi.edu/%7ejohnh/PAPERS/Baltra24a.html",
	pdfurl =	"https://ant.isi.edu/%7ejohnh/PAPERS/Baltra24a.pdf",
	blogurl =	"https://ant.isi.edu/blog/?p=2043",
	dataseturl = "https://ant.isi.edu/datasets/outage/index.html",
	myorganization =	"USC/Information Sciences Institute",
	copyrightholder = "Springer",
        abstract = "\emph{Address dynamics} are changes in IP address occupation as users
come and go, ISPs renumber them for privacy or for routing
maintenance.  Address dynamics affect address reputation services, IP
geolocation, network measurement, and outage detection, with
implications of Internet governance, e-commerce, and science.  While
prior work has identified diurnal trends in address use, we show the
effectiveness of Multi-Seasonal-Trend using Loess decomposition to
identify both daily and weekly trends.  We use ISP-wide dynamics to
develop IAS, a new algorithm that is the first to automatically detect
ISP maintenance events that move users in the address space.  We show
that 20\% of such events result in /24 IPv4 address blocks that become
unused for days or more, and correcting nearly 41k false outages per
quarter.  Our analysis provides a new understanding about ISP address
use:  while only about 2.8\% of ASes (1,730) are diurnal, some diurnal
ASes show more than 20\% changes each day.  It also shows greater
fragmentation in IPv4 address use compared to IPv6.",
}

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