Implementation of the IPCC SRES Scenario A1B with the Land Use Modelling Platform Contribution to the JRC PESETA II Project. Baranzelli, C.; Vandecasteele, I.; Batista e Silva, F.; Rojas, R.; and Lavalle, C. Volume 26463 of EUR - Scientific and Technical Research, Publications Office of the European Union.
Implementation of the IPCC SRES Scenario A1B with the Land Use Modelling Platform Contribution to the JRC PESETA II Project [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
The Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP) has been chosen to simulate land-use changes under a subset of scenarios (A1B). The modular structure of this platform, together with its high spatial resolution (100m), makes LUMP a suitable tool in the context of PESETAII. First, it guarantees high flexibility in adapting to the input/output interface required by the macro-economic models developed within this project. Moreover, an important added value to the modelling chain of PESETAII is the capability of taking into account specific policies with spatial repercussions. [Excerpt: Final considerations] Climate change and land use are interrelated. The role of forests as carbon sinks is indeed crucial, as well as not negligible is the contribution of land use changes to the overall GHG emissions. The importance of the climate change-land use nexus is crucial not only at global level, but also at national and local scales. In particular, when analyzing specific climate vulnerabilities at sub-national/local scales, the outlook of future land use patterns, under specific scenarios, can be a valuable information to identify problematic hotspots and optimize adaptation options. [\n] The analysis carried out should be regarded as a preliminary exercise, whose aim was to test the feasibility of the interconnections between the macro-economic and the bio-physical models part of the PESETAII Project, using the Land Use Modelling Platform. In particular, a two-fold approach has been applied. The LUMP has been configured in order to implement the A1B Scenario: the resulting time-series of land use changes has been then used to test a first linkage with the energy model POLES, concerning the supply of biomass resources. The second part of the exercise has regarded future hydropower potential: the scope of this analysis was to test the sensitivity of the energy model, in terms of overall EU27 electricity production, to changes in hydro-electricity output driven by Climate scenarios. In the context of this exercise, the output from the hydrological model was not dependent on the land use/cover changes. However, it is worth noting that, at the time of writing, the linkage between the LUMP platform and the hydrological model LIFSLOOD has been already implemented and is fully operational (Burek et al., 2012 and De Roo et al., 2012). [\n] In conclusion, this exercise demonstrated that it is possible to establish modelling linkages between land use, hydrological and energy models in the context of climate scenario impact assessment. [\n] Steps have already been made to refine these methodologies and the implementation thereof will occur in the next phases of the PESETA work at the JRC, eventually evolving towards a fully integrated dynamic system able to deliver land use-based indicators relevant to the climate change issue. [\n] [...]
@book{baranzelliImplementationIPCCSRES2013,
  title = {Implementation of the {{IPCC SRES Scenario A1B}} with the {{Land Use Modelling Platform}} Contribution to the {{JRC PESETA II}} Project},
  author = {Baranzelli, Claudia and Vandecasteele, Ine and Batista e Silva, Felipe and Rojas, Rodrigo and Lavalle, Carlo},
  date = {2013},
  volume = {26463},
  publisher = {{Publications Office of the European Union}},
  issn = {1831-9424},
  doi = {10.2788/62013},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.2788/62013},
  abstract = {The Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP) has been chosen to simulate land-use changes under a subset of scenarios (A1B). The modular structure of this platform, together with its high spatial resolution (100m), makes LUMP a suitable tool in the context of PESETAII. First, it guarantees high flexibility in adapting to the input/output interface required by the macro-economic models developed within this project. Moreover, an important added value to the modelling chain of PESETAII is the capability of taking into account specific policies with spatial repercussions.

[Excerpt: Final considerations]

Climate change and land use are interrelated. The role of forests as carbon sinks is indeed crucial, as well as not negligible is the contribution of land use changes to the overall GHG emissions. The importance of the climate change-land use nexus is crucial not only at global level, but also at national and local scales. In particular, when analyzing specific climate vulnerabilities at sub-national/local scales, the outlook of future land use patterns, under specific scenarios, can be a valuable information to identify problematic hotspots and optimize adaptation options.

[\textbackslash n] The analysis carried out should be regarded as a preliminary exercise, whose aim was to test the feasibility of the interconnections between the macro-economic and the bio-physical models part of the PESETAII Project, using the Land Use Modelling Platform. In particular, a two-fold approach has been applied. The LUMP has been configured in order to implement the A1B Scenario: the resulting time-series of land use changes has been then used to test a first linkage with the energy model POLES, concerning the supply of biomass resources. The second part of the exercise has regarded future hydropower potential: the scope of this analysis was to test the sensitivity of the energy model, in terms of overall EU27 electricity production, to changes in hydro-electricity output driven by Climate scenarios. In the context of this exercise, the output from the hydrological model was not dependent on the land use/cover changes. However, it is worth noting that, at the time of writing, the linkage between the LUMP platform and the hydrological model LIFSLOOD has been already implemented and is fully operational (Burek et al., 2012 and De Roo et al., 2012).

[\textbackslash n] In conclusion, this exercise demonstrated that it is possible to establish modelling linkages between land use, hydrological and energy models in the context of climate scenario impact assessment.

[\textbackslash n] Steps have already been made to refine these methodologies and the implementation thereof will occur in the next phases of the PESETA work at the JRC, eventually evolving towards a fully integrated dynamic system able to deliver land use-based indicators relevant to the climate change issue.

[\textbackslash n] [...]},
  isbn = {978-92-79-35263-8},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13218384,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,europe,featured-publication,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,land-use,peseta-series,spatial-analysis},
  series = {{{EUR}} - {{Scientific}} and {{Technical Research}}}
}
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