Effects of changes in stock productivity and mixing on sustainable fishing and economic viability. Bastardie, F., Nielsen, J. R., Eero, M., Fuga, F., & Rindorf, A. ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE, 74(2):535-551, OXFORD UNIV PRESS, GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND, MAR, 2017.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
Within the new F-MSY European paradigm, this paper shows how a combination of changes in fish stock mixing, non-stationarity in productivity, and constraints on unit stock concepts undermine the effective management of fisheries, especially when management reference points are not adjusted accordingly. Recent changes in stock structures, conditions and stock mixing between eastern and western Baltic cod can jeopardize the reliability of stock assessments and of the fishery economy. We modelled how different management, individual vessel decision-making, and stock growth and mixing scenarios have induced alternative individual vessel spatial effort allocation and economic performance by affecting fishing costs and by changing the relative stock abundance and size distribution. Stock mixing heavily influences profit and stock abundance for stocks that have experienced increased fishing mortality (F) levels. Western cod F has increased from a higher total allowed catches (TAC) advised in the medium-term due to the westward migration of eastern cod while eastern cod F has increased from reduced growth in the east. Greater pressures on western cod and decreased eastern cod growth and conditions greatly reduce the overall cod spawning stock biomass, thus changing the landing size composition and associated fishery profits. As a cumulative effect, fishing efforts are redirected towards western areas depending on management (quotas). However, total profits are less affected when traditional fishing opportunities and switching possibilities for other species and areas are maintained. Our evaluation indicates that current management mechanisms cannot correct for potential detrimental effects on cod fisheries when effort re-allocation changes landing origins. By investigating different economic starting conditions we further show that Baltic cod mis-management could have resulted in unintended unequal (skewed) impacts and serious consequences for certain fleets and fishing communities compared with others. Our management strategy evaluation is instrumental in capturing non-linear effects of different recommendations on sustainability and economic viability, and we show that fixed F-values management is likely not an attainable or sufficient goal in ensuring the sustainability and viability of fisheries and stocks given changing biological conditions.
@article{ ISI:000398110100008,
Author = {Bastardie, Francois and Nielsen, J. Rasmus and Eero, Margit and Fuga,
   Federico and Rindorf, Anna},
Title = {{Effects of changes in stock productivity and mixing on sustainable
   fishing and economic viability}},
Journal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},
Year = {{2017}},
Volume = {{74}},
Number = {{2}},
Pages = {{535-551}},
Month = {{MAR}},
Abstract = {{Within the new F-MSY European paradigm, this paper shows how a
   combination of changes in fish stock mixing, non-stationarity in
   productivity, and constraints on unit stock concepts undermine the
   effective management of fisheries, especially when management reference
   points are not adjusted accordingly. Recent changes in stock structures,
   conditions and stock mixing between eastern and western Baltic cod can
   jeopardize the reliability of stock assessments and of the fishery
   economy. We modelled how different management, individual vessel
   decision-making, and stock growth and mixing scenarios have induced
   alternative individual vessel spatial effort allocation and economic
   performance by affecting fishing costs and by changing the relative
   stock abundance and size distribution. Stock mixing heavily influences
   profit and stock abundance for stocks that have experienced increased
   fishing mortality (F) levels. Western cod F has increased from a higher
   total allowed catches (TAC) advised in the medium-term due to the
   westward migration of eastern cod while eastern cod F has increased from
   reduced growth in the east. Greater pressures on western cod and
   decreased eastern cod growth and conditions greatly reduce the overall
   cod spawning stock biomass, thus changing the landing size composition
   and associated fishery profits. As a cumulative effect, fishing efforts
   are redirected towards western areas depending on management (quotas).
   However, total profits are less affected when traditional fishing
   opportunities and switching possibilities for other species and areas
   are maintained. Our evaluation indicates that current management
   mechanisms cannot correct for potential detrimental effects on cod
   fisheries when effort re-allocation changes landing origins. By
   investigating different economic starting conditions we further show
   that Baltic cod mis-management could have resulted in unintended unequal
   (skewed) impacts and serious consequences for certain fleets and fishing
   communities compared with others. Our management strategy evaluation is
   instrumental in capturing non-linear effects of different
   recommendations on sustainability and economic viability, and we show
   that fixed F-values management is likely not an attainable or sufficient
   goal in ensuring the sustainability and viability of fisheries and
   stocks given changing biological conditions.}},
Publisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},
Address = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},
Type = {{Article}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Bastardie, F (Reprint Author), Tech Univ Denmark, Nat Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
   Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Eero, Margit; Rindorf, Anna, Tech Univ Denmark, Nat Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
   Fuga, Federico, Studiofuga, Verona, Italy.}},
DOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsw083}},
ISSN = {{1054-3139}},
EISSN = {{1095-9289}},
Keywords = {{agent-based modelling; Baltic cod; bio-economic fisheries model;
   decision making; long-term management plans; MSY Approach; spatial
   effort allocation; stock production and mixing}},
Keywords-Plus = {{EASTERN BALTIC COD; MARINE FISHES; MANAGEMENT; MODEL; POPULATION;
   CONSEQUENCES; UNCERTAINTY; RECRUITMENT; PERFORMANCE; DYNAMICS}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Web-of-Science-Categories  = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Author-Email = {{fba@aqua.dtu.dk}},
Funding-Acknowledgement = {{European Community {[}289257]; Danish Strategic Research Council}},
Funding-Text = {{The research leading to the presented results was funded by the European
   Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-13) under grant
   agreement MYFISH number 289257 (A.R., F.B.) and through the Danish
   Strategic Research Council financed project IMAGE (F.B., M.E., J.R.N.,
   F.F.). We would like to thank the three reviewers for their thorough
   review of an earlier version of this work.}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{45}},
Times-Cited = {{0}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{5}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{5}},
Journal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. Sci.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{EQ5GI}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000398110100008}},
OA = {{No}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}
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