Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions with the CNRM-CM global coupled model real-time forecast. Batté, L., Ardilouze, C., Chevallier, M., & Déqué, M. In 2015. ![Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions with the CNRM-CM global coupled model real-time forecast [pdf]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/pdf.svg "pdf")
Paper abstract bibtex Fig 6: CNRM-CM probability forecast for July 2015 weekly 2-meter temperature terciles over Europe (top row) and verification against ERA-Interim (bottom row). Terciles are computed over a 1993-2014 reference period. Probability of the most likely 2m temperature tercile (white: no favored category) cool median warm Obs. Observed 2m temperature tercile (ERA-Interim) Since starting real-time forecasts, one striking event at the S2S scale was the heat wave over Western Europe in July 2015. The CNRM-CM S2S forecast managed to capture the persistence of warmer than normal temperatures during the first three weeks of the forecast, and to a lesser extent, the cooler temperatures over Scandinavia, as shown in Fig. 6. A more thorough analysis of this case study is ongoing work, such as testing how the start date helped capture this event. 6. Prospects References and Acknowledgements: • Batté, L. and M. Déqué (2012): A stochastic method for improving seasonal predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L09707. • Dee, D.P. et al. (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q.J.R.Meteorol. Soc., 137: 553–597. • Ferry, N. et al. (2010). Mercator Global Eddy Permitting Ocean Reanalysis GLORYS1V1: Description and results. Mercator Ocean Quarterly Newsl., 36, 15-27.
@inProceedings{
title = {Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions with the CNRM-CM global coupled model real-time forecast},
type = {inProceedings},
year = {2015},
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abstract = {Fig 6: CNRM-CM probability forecast for July 2015 weekly 2-meter temperature terciles over Europe (top row) and verification against ERA-Interim (bottom row). Terciles are computed over a 1993-2014 reference period. Probability of the most likely 2m temperature tercile (white: no favored category) cool median warm Obs. Observed 2m temperature tercile (ERA-Interim) Since starting real-time forecasts, one striking event at the S2S scale was the heat wave over Western Europe in July 2015. The CNRM-CM S2S forecast managed to capture the persistence of warmer than normal temperatures during the first three weeks of the forecast, and to a lesser extent, the cooler temperatures over Scandinavia, as shown in Fig. 6. A more thorough analysis of this case study is ongoing work, such as testing how the start date helped capture this event. 6. Prospects References and Acknowledgements: • Batté, L. and M. Déqué (2012): A stochastic method for improving seasonal predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L09707. • Dee, D.P. et al. (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q.J.R.Meteorol. Soc., 137: 553–597. • Ferry, N. et al. (2010). Mercator Global Eddy Permitting Ocean Reanalysis GLORYS1V1: Description and results. Mercator Ocean Quarterly Newsl., 36, 15-27.},
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author = {Batté, Lauriane and Ardilouze, Constantin and Chevallier, Matthieu and Déqué, Michel}
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