An essay toward solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Bayes, T. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53:370–418, 1763. Communicated by R. Price, in a letter to J. Canton
bibtex   
@article{bayes1763,
title={An essay toward solving a problem in the doctrine of chances},
author={Bayes, Thomas},
journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London},
volume={53},
pages={370--418},
note={Communicated by R. Price, in a letter to J. Canton},
year={1763}
}
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