A Statistical Comparative Planetology Approach to the Hunt for Habitable Exoplanets and Life Beyond the Solar System

A Statistical Comparative Planetology Approach to the Hunt for Habitable Exoplanets and Life Beyond the Solar System. Bean, J. L., Abbot, D. S., & Kempton, E. M. ArXiv e-prints, 1705:arXiv:1705.06288, May, 2017.

Paper abstract bibtex

The search for habitable exoplanets and life beyond the Solar System is one of the most compelling scientific opportunities of our time. Nevertheless, the high cost of building facilities that can address this topic and the keen public interest in the results of such research requires the rigorous development of experiments that can deliver a definitive advance in our understanding. Most work to date in this area has focused on a "systems science" approach of obtaining and interpreting comprehensive data for individual planets to make statements about their habitability and the possibility that they harbor life. This strategy is challenging because of the diversity of exoplanets, both observed and expected, and the limited information that can be obtained with astronomical instruments. Here we propose a complementary approach that is based on performing surveys of key planetary characteristics and using statistical marginalization to answer broader questions than can be addressed with a small sample of objects. The fundamental principle of this comparative planetology approach is maximizing what can be learned from each type of measurement by applying it widely rather than requiring that multiple kinds of observations be brought to bear on a single object. As a proof of concept, we outline a survey of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheric water and carbon dioxide abundances that would test the habitable zone hypothesis and lead to a deeper understanding of the frequency of habitable planets. We also discuss ideas for additional surveys that could be developed to test other foundational hypotheses is this area.

@article{bean_statistical_2017,
	title = {A {Statistical} {Comparative} {Planetology} {Approach} to the {Hunt} for {Habitable} {Exoplanets} and {Life} {Beyond} the {Solar} {System}},
	volume = {1705},
	url = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017arXiv170506288B},
	abstract = {The search for habitable exoplanets and life beyond the Solar System is 
one of the most compelling scientific opportunities of our time.
Nevertheless, the high cost of building facilities that can address this
topic and the keen public interest in the results of such research
requires the rigorous development of experiments that can deliver a
definitive advance in our understanding. Most work to date in this area
has focused on a "systems science" approach of obtaining and
interpreting comprehensive data for individual planets to make
statements about their habitability and the possibility that they harbor
life. This strategy is challenging because of the diversity of
exoplanets, both observed and expected, and the limited information that
can be obtained with astronomical instruments. Here we propose a
complementary approach that is based on performing surveys of key
planetary characteristics and using statistical marginalization to
answer broader questions than can be addressed with a small sample of
objects. The fundamental principle of this comparative planetology
approach is maximizing what can be learned from each type of measurement
by applying it widely rather than requiring that multiple kinds of
observations be brought to bear on a single object. As a proof of
concept, we outline a survey of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheric water
and carbon dioxide abundances that would test the habitable zone
hypothesis and lead to a deeper understanding of the frequency of
habitable planets. We also discuss ideas for additional surveys that
could be developed to test other foundational hypotheses is this area.},
	urldate = {2017-05-23},
	journal = {ArXiv e-prints},
	author = {Bean, Jacob L. and Abbot, Dorian S. and Kempton, Eliza M.-R.},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics},
	pages = {arXiv:1705.06288},
}

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