Environmental tipping points and food system dynamics: Main Report. Benton, T. G., Fairweather, D., Graves, A., Harris, J., Jones, A., Lenton, T., Norman, R., O’Riordan, T., Pope, E., & Tiffin, R. Technical Report Global Food Security, 2017. 00000![Environmental tipping points and food system dynamics: Main Report [pdf]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/pdf.svg "pdf")
Paper abstract bibtex Environmental tipping points occur when there are step changes in the way the biophysical world works – whether loss of soil fertility, collapse of a fishing stock, or sudden changes in weather patterns, such as those that caused the grasslands in North Africa to become deserts, 6000 years ago. These non-linear shifts arise following a critical degree of change, resulting from either many small cumulative changes or one large shock, “tipping” the system over a threshold and into a new stable state. Entering an alternative stable state is associated with a change to system function, usually being difficult to reverse or “tip” back into the original state. Increasingly we recognise that human-environment interactions are affecting the likelihood that critical thresholds for tipping points will be crossed, leading to step-changes in the provision of environmental goods and services, and impacting upon food security. • This report provides evidence that tipping points in environmental systems do occur and that they could have significant effects on food security. Agri-food systems rely on the maintenance of function of a wide range of supporting systems (soil, water, climate, as well as biodiversity-related services like pollination and natural pest suppression); sudden changes in function associated with tipping points in climate, weather, soil health or biodiversity may have profound effects, at least at some scale. • Extreme events – such as widespread droughts - in the natural environment have been shown to perturb our globally interconnected food markets, and have contributed to food price spikes (in combination with other factors such as export restrictions). Crossing an environmental tipping point has the potential to contribute to market effects in a similar way, but with the perturbation being long-lived or even permanent. Even “local” tipping points (for example the possibility of a dustbowl in East Anglia or a fisheries collapse) can contribute to supply shortfalls and have potential to prompt food price spikes. Global scale tipping points such as collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could permanently change supply in an unprecedented way, through harsher winters and a strengthening of the winter storm track across the UK and Western Europe, together with hotter, drier and less windy summers. • Economic systems are like natural systems in having feedback loops, non-linear behaviour and tipping points. We do not currently know enough about the interaction of biological and socio-economic systems to know whether they will amplify or dampen each other’s tipping points. The present paradigm that trade is typically beneficial is based on the assumption that an open trading system will dampen shocks, and this is true for small shocks. But as potential shocks - from evolving weather and potential tipping points - increase in magnitude, frequency and longevity, the confidence with which this assumption is made may be tested. More research is needed to better understand the risks. • One potential early warning indicator of an approaching tipping point is increasing volatility, as behaviour of the system “flickers” close to tipping and prior to a permanent change to a “new normal”. More research is needed to be able to characterise and anticipate the reaching of critical thresholds in ways that are trusted enough to prompt action. • If predictions about critical thresholds and when we might cross them are trusted, the pathways to mitigate crossing the tipping point are understood (for example, avoiding over-fishing, or improving soil health or de-carbonising the economy), and public policies do not distort market responses, then an environmental tipping point could lead to a smooth market response and no price spikes in food. • However, the market does not often work to “perfectly price” and governments do intervene in ways that distort market responses (such as reducing exports during a food price spike). There is a clear need for the potential risks of crossing tipping points to be understood more widely, and for consideration of potential actions to mitigate and adapt to these. It may be possible to undertake an in-depth cost-benefit analysis. This might inform whether adapting to a “new normal” or mitigating the tipping point in advance of crossing it is economically preferable. However, many of the options are deeply political, or geo-political, in nature and it may be that the actions taken are not those predicted by a cost-benefit analysis
@techreport{benton_environmental_2017,
title = {Environmental tipping points and food system dynamics: {Main} {Report}},
url = {http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/assets/pdfs/environmental-tipping-points-report.pdf},
abstract = {Environmental tipping points occur when there are step changes in the way the biophysical world works – whether loss of soil fertility, collapse of a fishing stock, or sudden changes in weather patterns, such as those that caused the grasslands in North Africa to become deserts, 6000 years ago. These non-linear shifts arise following a critical degree of change, resulting from either many small cumulative changes or one large shock, “tipping” the system over a threshold and into a new stable state. Entering an alternative stable state is associated with a change to system function, usually being difficult to reverse or “tip” back into the original state. Increasingly we recognise that human-environment interactions are affecting the likelihood that critical thresholds for tipping points will be crossed, leading to step-changes in the provision of environmental goods and services, and impacting upon food security.
•
This report provides evidence that tipping points in environmental systems do occur and that they could have significant effects on food security. Agri-food systems rely on the maintenance of function of a wide range of supporting systems (soil, water, climate, as well as biodiversity-related services like pollination and natural pest suppression); sudden changes in function associated with tipping points in climate, weather, soil health or biodiversity may have profound effects, at least at some scale.
•
Extreme events – such as widespread droughts - in the natural environment have been shown to perturb our globally
interconnected food markets, and have contributed to food price spikes (in combination with other factors such as export
restrictions). Crossing an environmental tipping point has the potential to contribute to market effects in a similar way, but
with the perturbation being long-lived or even permanent. Even “local” tipping points (for example the possibility of a dustbowl in East Anglia or a fisheries collapse) can contribute to supply shortfalls and have potential to prompt food price spikes. Global scale tipping points such as collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could permanently change supply in an unprecedented way, through harsher winters and a strengthening of the winter storm track across the UK and Western Europe, together with hotter, drier and less windy summers.
•
Economic systems are like natural systems in having feedback loops, non-linear behaviour and tipping points. We do not
currently know enough about the interaction of biological and socio-economic systems to know whether they will amplify or
dampen each other’s tipping points. The present paradigm that trade is typically beneficial is based on the assumption that an open trading system will dampen shocks, and this is true for small shocks. But as potential shocks - from evolving weather and potential tipping points - increase in magnitude, frequency and longevity, the confidence with which this assumption is made may be tested. More research is needed to better understand the risks.
•
One potential early warning indicator of an approaching tipping point is increasing volatility, as behaviour of the system “flickers” close to tipping and prior to a permanent change to a “new normal”. More research is needed to be able to characterise and anticipate the reaching of critical thresholds in ways that are trusted enough to prompt action.
•
If predictions about critical thresholds and when we might cross them are trusted, the pathways to mitigate crossing the tipping point are understood (for example, avoiding over-fishing, or improving soil health or de-carbonising the economy), and public policies do not distort market responses, then an environmental tipping point could lead to a smooth market response and no price spikes in food.
•
However, the market does not often work to “perfectly price” and governments do intervene in ways that distort market responses (such as reducing exports during a food price spike). There is a clear need for the potential risks of crossing tipping points to be understood more widely, and for consideration of potential actions to mitigate and adapt to these.
It may be possible to undertake an in-depth cost-benefit analysis. This might inform whether adapting to a “new normal”
or mitigating the tipping point in advance of crossing it is economically preferable. However, many of the options are
deeply political, or geo-political, in nature and it may be that the actions taken are not those predicted by a cost-benefit analysis},
urldate = {2017-01-24},
institution = {Global Food Security},
author = {Benton, Tim G. and Fairweather, Dan and Graves, Anil and Harris, Jim and Jones, Aled and Lenton, Tim and Norman, Rachel and O’Riordan, Tim and Pope, Edward and Tiffin, Richard},
year = {2017},
note = {00000},
keywords = {collapse, agriculture-food-famine, systemic-risks},
file = {Benton et al. - 2017 - Environmental tipping points and food system dyna.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\RFDPXF5F\\Benton et al. - 2017 - Environmental tipping points and food system dyna.pdf:application/pdf}
}
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Agri-food systems rely on the maintenance of function of a wide range of supporting systems (soil, water, climate, as well as biodiversity-related services like pollination and natural pest suppression); sudden changes in function associated with tipping points in climate, weather, soil health or biodiversity may have profound effects, at least at some scale. • Extreme events – such as widespread droughts - in the natural environment have been shown to perturb our globally interconnected food markets, and have contributed to food price spikes (in combination with other factors such as export restrictions). Crossing an environmental tipping point has the potential to contribute to market effects in a similar way, but with the perturbation being long-lived or even permanent. Even “local” tipping points (for example the possibility of a dustbowl in East Anglia or a fisheries collapse) can contribute to supply shortfalls and have potential to prompt food price spikes. Global scale tipping points such as collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could permanently change supply in an unprecedented way, through harsher winters and a strengthening of the winter storm track across the UK and Western Europe, together with hotter, drier and less windy summers. • Economic systems are like natural systems in having feedback loops, non-linear behaviour and tipping points. We do not currently know enough about the interaction of biological and socio-economic systems to know whether they will amplify or dampen each other’s tipping points. The present paradigm that trade is typically beneficial is based on the assumption that an open trading system will dampen shocks, and this is true for small shocks. But as potential shocks - from evolving weather and potential tipping points - increase in magnitude, frequency and longevity, the confidence with which this assumption is made may be tested. More research is needed to better understand the risks. • One potential early warning indicator of an approaching tipping point is increasing volatility, as behaviour of the system “flickers” close to tipping and prior to a permanent change to a “new normal”. More research is needed to be able to characterise and anticipate the reaching of critical thresholds in ways that are trusted enough to prompt action. • If predictions about critical thresholds and when we might cross them are trusted, the pathways to mitigate crossing the tipping point are understood (for example, avoiding over-fishing, or improving soil health or de-carbonising the economy), and public policies do not distort market responses, then an environmental tipping point could lead to a smooth market response and no price spikes in food. • However, the market does not often work to “perfectly price” and governments do intervene in ways that distort market responses (such as reducing exports during a food price spike). 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These non-linear shifts arise following a critical degree of change, resulting from either many small cumulative changes or one large shock, “tipping” the system over a threshold and into a new stable state. Entering an alternative stable state is associated with a change to system function, usually being difficult to reverse or “tip” back into the original state. Increasingly we recognise that human-environment interactions are affecting the likelihood that critical thresholds for tipping points will be crossed, leading to step-changes in the provision of environmental goods and services, and impacting upon food security.\n• \nThis report provides evidence that tipping points in environmental systems do occur and that they could have significant effects on food security. 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