Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris. Bittermann, K., Rahmstorf, S., Kopp, R. E., & Kemp, A. C. Environmental Research Letters, 12(12):124010, 2017. ![Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to ‘ well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels ’, projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14–21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr −1 (90% credible interval: 1.4–2.6 mm yr −1 ). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr −1 (90% credible interval: 2.0–4.0 mm yr −1 ).
@article{bittermann_global_2017,
title = {Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in {Paris}},
volume = {12},
issn = {1748-9326},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/12/i=12/a=124010},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa9def},
abstract = {Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to ‘ well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels ’, projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90\% credible interval: 14–21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr −1 (90\% credible interval: 1.4–2.6 mm yr −1 ). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr −1 (90\% credible interval: 2.0–4.0 mm yr −1 ).},
language = {en},
number = {12},
urldate = {2017-12-19},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
author = {Bittermann, Klaus and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Kopp, Robert E. and Kemp, Andrew C.},
year = {2017},
pages = {124010}
}
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