Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise. Bosello, F., Nicholls, R. J., Richards, J., Roson, R., & Tol, R. S. J. Climatic Change, 112(1):63–81, May, 2012. ![Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the GTAP-EF model to assess the indirect economic implications. Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany ($483 and $391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries’ economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. The policy insights are (1) while sea-level rise has negative and huge direct economic effects, overall effects on GDP are quite small (max −0.046% in Poland); (2) the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indirectly affects landlocked countries as well (Austria for instance loses −0.003% of its GDP); and (3) adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level.
@article{bosello_economic_2012,
title = {Economic impacts of climate change in {Europe}: sea-level rise},
volume = {112},
issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
shorttitle = {Economic impacts of climate change in {Europe}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0340-1},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0340-1},
abstract = {This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the GTAP-EF model to assess the indirect economic implications. Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12\% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5\% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany (\$483 and \$391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85\% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries’ economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. The policy insights are (1) while sea-level rise has negative and huge direct economic effects, overall effects on GDP are quite small (max −0.046\% in Poland); (2) the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indirectly affects landlocked countries as well (Austria for instance loses −0.003\% of its GDP); and (3) adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2017-05-17},
journal = {Climatic Change},
author = {Bosello, Francesco and Nicholls, Robert J. and Richards, Julie and Roson, Roberto and Tol, Richard S. J.},
month = may,
year = {2012},
keywords = {KR, Untagged},
pages = {63--81},
}
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Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany ($483 and $391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries’ economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. 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