@article{ ISI:000323635600002,
Author = {Brander, Keith and Neuheimer, Anna and Andersen, Ken Haste and Hartvig,
   Martin},
Title = {{Overconfidence in model projections}},
Journal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},
Year = {{2013}},
Volume = {{70}},
Number = {{6}},
Pages = {{1065-1068}},
Month = {{SEP}},
Abstract = {{There is considerable public and political interest in the state of
   marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent
   projections has been called into question. New information about
   declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and
   management failure is frequently reported in the major news media, based
   on publications in prominent scientific journals. Public and political
   awareness of the generally negative changes taking place in marine
   ecosystems is welcome, especially if it results in effective remedial
   action, but the scientific basis for such action must be reliable and
   uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be
   presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important
   role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of
   uncertainties.}},
Publisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},
Address = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},
Type = {{Article}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Brander, K (Reprint Author), Tech Univ Denmark Charlottenlund Castle, Ctr Ocean Life, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark.
   Brander, Keith; Andersen, Ken Haste; Hartvig, Martin, Tech Univ Denmark Charlottenlund Castle, Ctr Ocean Life, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark.
   Neuheimer, Anna, Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean \& Earth Sci \& Technol, Dept Oceanog, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA.
   Hartvig, Martin, Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Macroecol Evolut \& Climate, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.}},
DOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fst055}},
ISSN = {{1054-3139}},
Keywords = {{climate; fisheries; marine ecosystems; model reliability; projections}},
Keywords-Plus = {{COD GADUS-MORHUA; BIODIVERSITY LOSS; FISHERIES; MANAGEMENT; GROWTH;
   COMMUNITIES; UNCERTAINTY; OCEAN; CATCH; SIZE}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Web-of-Science-Categories  = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Author-Email = {{kbr@aqua.dtu.dk}},
ResearcherID-Numbers = {{publist, CMEC/C-3010-2012
   publicationpage, cmec/B-4405-2017}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{36}},
Times-Cited = {{20}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{3}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{35}},
Journal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. Sci.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{207WO}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000323635600002}},
OA = {{No}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}

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