Managing Incremental Commitment: An Analytic Challenge. Brown, R. SSRN eLibrary, April, 2012.
Paper abstract bibtex Decision making often consists of incremental moves toward some selected objective, which can be reconsidered as knowledge emerges - as when an individual chooses a career, or a commander picks a military course of action. Analyzing these decision strategy options as if they were single integral commitments can distort comparison. However, rigorous normative treatment of complex act-event sequences is often impractical. Alternative analytic aids to managing incremental commitment usefully are explored, e.g; evaluation of integral options adjusted for flexibility, successive decision analyses of incremental options, simplified information gathering decision trees, feedback to decider on evolving operation success, rehearsing deciders on potential recognition-primed sequences.
@article{brown_managing_2012,
title = {Managing {Incremental} {Commitment}: {An} {Analytic} {Challenge}},
shorttitle = {Managing {Incremental} {Commitment}},
url = {http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2037695},
abstract = {Decision making often consists of incremental moves toward some selected objective, which can be reconsidered as knowledge emerges - as when an individual chooses a career, or a commander picks a military course of action. Analyzing these decision strategy options as if they were single integral commitments can distort comparison. However, rigorous normative treatment of complex act-event sequences is often impractical. Alternative analytic aids to managing incremental commitment usefully are explored, e.g; evaluation of integral options adjusted for flexibility, successive decision analyses of incremental options, simplified information gathering decision trees, feedback to decider on evolving operation success, rehearsing deciders on potential recognition-primed sequences.},
urldate = {2012-05-03},
journal = {SSRN eLibrary},
author = {Brown, Rex},
month = apr,
year = {2012},
file = {SSRN-id2037695.pdf:files/36528/SSRN-id2037695.pdf:application/pdf}
}
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