Forecasting Credit Supply Demand Balance for the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard Program. Bushnell, J., Lade, G., Smith, A., Witcover, J., & Xiao, W. 2023. ![Forecasting Credit Supply Demand Balance for the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard Program [pdf]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/pdf.svg "pdf")
Paper abstract bibtex 48 downloads In this report, we present our projections for the expected supply of and demand for Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS credits) through 2030, as well as through 2035, based on potential changes to program stringency. Our main approach is to apply time-series forecasting methods to project the expected demand for transportation fuels and combine that with the expected evolution of fuel prices and carbon intensities as well as complementary policies' impact on the fuel mix. Our results imply that the program can accommodate a relatively aggressive target of a 43% reduction by 2035, but only if everything breaks right and many best-case outcomes arise toward the middle of the next decade. By contrast, if ZEV penetration falls well below targets, the program could reach cumulative deficits of 60 to 100 MMT by 2035. Our median forecast of our baseline scenario, targeting 30% carbon intensity reduction by 2030 and 43% by 2035, forecasts a small but significant cumulative deficit by 2035.
@article{bushnell2023lcfs,
title={Forecasting Credit Supply Demand Balance for the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard Program},
author={Bushnell, James and Lade, Gabriel and Smith, Aaron and Witcover, Julie and Xiao, Wuzheqian},
url={https://files.asmith.ucdavis.edu/LCFS_report_2023_Final_Aug.pdf},
abstract={
In this report, we present our projections for the expected supply of and demand for Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS credits) through 2030, as well as through 2035, based on potential changes to program stringency. Our main approach is to apply time-series forecasting methods to project the expected demand for transportation fuels and combine that with the expected evolution of fuel prices and carbon intensities as well as complementary policies' impact on the fuel mix. Our results imply that the program can accommodate a relatively aggressive target of a 43\% reduction by 2035, but only if everything breaks right and many best-case outcomes arise toward the middle of the next decade. By contrast, if ZEV penetration falls well below targets, the program could reach cumulative deficits of 60 to 100 MMT by 2035. Our median forecast of our baseline scenario, targeting 30\% carbon intensity reduction by 2030 and 43\% by 2035, forecasts a small but significant cumulative deficit by 2035.},
keywords={energy},
year={2023}
}
Downloads: 48
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