@article{butitta_spatial_2017,
	title = {Spatial early warning signals in a lake manipulation},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2150-8925},
	shorttitle = {Spatial early warning signals in a lake manipulation},
	url = {://WOS:000414070800010},
	doi = {10.1002/ecs2.1941},
	abstract = {Rapid changes in state have been documented for many of Earth's ecosystems. Despite a growing toolbox of methods for detecting declining resilience or early warning indicators (EWIs) of ecosystem transitions, these methods have rarely been evaluated in whole-ecosystem trials using reference ecosystems. In this study, we experimentally tested EWIs of cyanobacteria blooms based on changes in the spatial structure of a lake. We induced a cyanobacteria bloom by adding nutrients to an experimental lake and mapped fine-resolution spatial patterning of cyanobacteria using a mobile sensor platform. Prior to the bloom, we detected theoretically predicted spatial EWIs based on variance and spatial autocorrelation, as well as a new index based on the extreme values. Changes in EWIs were not discernible in an unenriched reference lake. Despite the fluid environment of a lake where spatial heterogeneity driven by biological processes may be overwhelmed by physical mixing, spatial EWIs detected an approaching bloom suggesting the utility of spatial metrics for signaling ecological thresholds.},
	language = {English},
	number = {10},
	journal = {Ecosphere},
	author = {Butitta, V. L. and Carpenter, S. R. and Loken, L. C. and Pace, M. L. and Stanley, E. H.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {regime shifts, eutrophication, resilience, ecosystems, Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, ecosystem, cyanobacteria, indicators, algal bloom, climate-change, experiment, theoretical-analysis, catastrophic shifts, critical transition, critical transitions, early warning indicators, regime shift, slowing-down, spatial analysis},
	pages = {11}
}

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Despite a growing toolbox of methods for detecting declining resilience or early warning indicators (EWIs) of ecosystem transitions, these methods have rarely been evaluated in whole-ecosystem trials using reference ecosystems. In this study, we experimentally tested EWIs of cyanobacteria blooms based on changes in the spatial structure of a lake. We induced a cyanobacteria bloom by adding nutrients to an experimental lake and mapped fine-resolution spatial patterning of cyanobacteria using a mobile sensor platform. Prior to the bloom, we detected theoretically predicted spatial EWIs based on variance and spatial autocorrelation, as well as a new index based on the extreme values. Changes in EWIs were not discernible in an unenriched reference lake. 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