Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation: basic problems or misinterpretations?. Butterworth, D. S., Bentley, N., De Oliveira, J. A. A., Donovan, G. P., Kell, L. T., Parma, A. M., Punt, A. E., Sainsbury, K. J., Smith, A. D. M., & Stokes, T. K. ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE, 67(3):567-574, OXFORD UNIV PRESS, GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND, APR, 2010.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
Rochet and Rice, while recognizing management strategy evaluation (MSE) as an important step forward in fisheries management, level a number of criticisms at its implementation. Some of their points are sound, such as the need for care in representing uncertainties and for thorough documentation of the process. However, others evidence important misunderstandings. Although the difficulties in estimating tail probabilities and risks, as discussed by Rochet and Rice, are well known, their arguments that Efron's nonparametric bootstrap re-sampling method underestimates the probabilities of low values are flawed. In any case, though, the focus of MSEs is primarily on comparing performance and robustness across alternative management procedures (MPs), rather than on estimating absolute levels of risk. Qualitative methods can augment MSE, but their limitations also need to be recognized. Intelligence certainly needs to play a role in fisheries management, but not at the level of tinkering in the provision of annual advice, which Rochet and Rice apparently advocate, inter alia because this runs the risk of advice following noise rather than signal. Instead, intelligence should come into play in the exercise of oversight through the process of multiannual reviews of MSE and associated MPs. A number of examples are given of the process of interaction with stakeholders which should characterize MSE.
@article{ ISI:000275818300018,
Author = {Butterworth, Douglas S. and Bentley, Nokome and De Oliveira, Jose A. A.
   and Donovan, Gregory P. and Kell, Laurence T. and Parma, Ana M. and
   Punt, Andre E. and Sainsbury, Keith J. and Smith, Anthony D. M. and
   Stokes, T. Kevin},
Title = {{Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation: basic problems or
   misinterpretations?}},
Journal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},
Year = {{2010}},
Volume = {{67}},
Number = {{3}},
Pages = {{567-574}},
Month = {{APR}},
Abstract = {{Rochet and Rice, while recognizing management strategy evaluation (MSE)
   as an important step forward in fisheries management, level a number of
   criticisms at its implementation. Some of their points are sound, such
   as the need for care in representing uncertainties and for thorough
   documentation of the process. However, others evidence important
   misunderstandings. Although the difficulties in estimating tail
   probabilities and risks, as discussed by Rochet and Rice, are well
   known, their arguments that Efron's nonparametric bootstrap re-sampling
   method underestimates the probabilities of low values are flawed. In any
   case, though, the focus of MSEs is primarily on comparing performance
   and robustness across alternative management procedures (MPs), rather
   than on estimating absolute levels of risk. Qualitative methods can
   augment MSE, but their limitations also need to be recognized.
   Intelligence certainly needs to play a role in fisheries management, but
   not at the level of tinkering in the provision of annual advice, which
   Rochet and Rice apparently advocate, inter alia because this runs the
   risk of advice following noise rather than signal. Instead, intelligence
   should come into play in the exercise of oversight through the process
   of multiannual reviews of MSE and associated MPs. A number of examples
   are given of the process of interaction with stakeholders which should
   characterize MSE.}},
Publisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},
Address = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},
Type = {{Article}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Butterworth, DS (Reprint Author), Univ Cape Town, Dept Math \& Appl Math, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa.
   Butterworth, Douglas S., Univ Cape Town, Dept Math \& Appl Math, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa.
   Bentley, Nokome, Trophia Ltd, Kaikoura 7300, New Zealand.
   De Oliveira, Jose A. A., Ctr Environm Fisheries \& Aquaculture Sci, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, Suffolk, England.
   Donovan, Gregory P., Int Whaling Commiss, Cambridge CB24 9NP, England.
   Kell, Laurence T., ICCAT Secretariat, Madrid 280002, Spain.
   Parma, Ana M., Ctr Nacl Patagon, Puerto Madryn, Chubut, Argentina.
   Punt, Andre E., Univ Washington, Sch Aquat \& Fishery Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA.
   Punt, Andre E.; Smith, Anthony D. M., CSIRO Marine \& Atmospher Res, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.
   Sainsbury, Keith J., Univ Tasmania, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.}},
DOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsq009}},
ISSN = {{1054-3139}},
Keywords = {{management procedure; management strategy evaluation; Monte Carlo
   simulation; risk estimation; uncertainty}},
Keywords-Plus = {{SOUTHERN BLUEFIN TUNA; FISHERIES-MANAGEMENT; PRECAUTIONARY APPROACH;
   FLOUNDERING ATTEMPT; HARVEST POLICIES; IMPLEMENTATION; UNCERTAINTY;
   LESSONS; STOCKS; PRODUCTIVITY}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Web-of-Science-Categories  = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Author-Email = {{doug.butterworth@uct.ac.za}},
ResearcherID-Numbers = {{Smith, Tony/A-4017-2012
   }},
ORCID-Numbers = {{Punt, Andre/0000-0001-8489-2488}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{63}},
Times-Cited = {{25}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{1}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{12}},
Journal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. Sci.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{572HI}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000275818300018}},
OA = {{No}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}
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