Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger. Camia, A., Libertà, G., & San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. . ![Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper abstract bibtex Forest fires are an environmental, economic and social problem particularly in the southern European countries, where wildfires regularly burn thousands of hectares of forests and other lands. Changes in wildfire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystems stability, with consequent direct and indirect economic losses. On the other hand, active forest management and wildfire management practices have some potential to counteract the impacts of a changing climate. Meteorological fire danger indices evaluate and summarize the fire danger considering current and past weather. Based on these indices, maps of projected change of fire danger in Europe under climate change have been developed. In addition, statistical models linking meteorological fire danger and area burned are being built, to support assessments of the expected ecological and economic impact of changed fire danger conditions. The work was done in the context of PESETA II Project. [Excerpt: Discussion and conclusion] In this work we present a first attempt to quantify the estimated economic impact of forest fires in southern European countries. The assessment is done for current years and for end of the century projections, according to two different climate change scenarios respectively driven by A1B and E1 atmospheric emissions scenarios. [] The assessments are based on meteorologically based indices under the assumption that the main driver of fire regimes in Mediterranean Europe is weather. However other important factors such as fuel (biomass) availability and conditions, ignitions sources and human activity (adaptation or causality) affect fire activity and thus wildfire impact. These aspect has not been considered in the study. [] The damage value based on the restoration cost approach underestimates the actual economic losses. Costs which are not accounted for are those incurred because of the missed benefits until the forest is restored (i.e., temporary loss of ecosystem services), or the direct cost of fire fighting. [] Other associated costs related to indirect effects of wildfires on aspects such as human health or secondary effects on other natural hazards, such as e.g. increased potential for flooding, are also not accounted for. [] A consistent, significantly higher impact of scenario A1B is observed, with an average 97\,% increase of burned area in southern Europe projected at the end of the century, which is on average 2.4 times bigger than the burned area increase predicted with E1 scenario. [] Results vary greatly across Europe, with marked differences among model runs within the scenarios. The use of ensemble models is therefore essential in this respect, as well as site specific differentiation of adaptation strategies. [] Fire management strategies adapted to a changing climate should be integrated with forest management and strengthen fire prevention activities such as targeted fuel treatments and prescribed fires.
@report{camiaModellingImpactsClimate2013,
title = {Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger},
author = {Camia, Andrea and Libertà, Giorgio and San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús},
date = {2013},
url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14168991},
abstract = {Forest fires are an environmental, economic and social problem particularly in the southern European countries, where wildfires regularly burn thousands of hectares of forests and other lands. Changes in wildfire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystems stability, with consequent direct and indirect economic losses. On the other hand, active forest management and wildfire management practices have some potential to counteract the impacts of a changing climate. Meteorological fire danger indices evaluate and summarize the fire danger considering current and past weather. Based on these indices, maps of projected change of fire danger in Europe under climate change have been developed. In addition, statistical models linking meteorological fire danger and area burned are being built, to support assessments of the expected ecological and economic impact of changed fire danger conditions. The work was done in the context of PESETA II Project.
[Excerpt: Discussion and conclusion]
In this work we present a first attempt to quantify the estimated economic impact of forest fires in southern European countries. The assessment is done for current years and for end of the century projections, according to two different climate change scenarios respectively driven by A1B and E1 atmospheric emissions scenarios.
[] The assessments are based on meteorologically based indices under the assumption that the main driver of fire regimes in Mediterranean Europe is weather. However other important factors such as fuel (biomass) availability and conditions, ignitions sources and human activity (adaptation or causality) affect fire activity and thus wildfire impact. These aspect has not been considered in the study.
[] The damage value based on the restoration cost approach underestimates the actual economic losses. Costs which are not accounted for are those incurred because of the missed benefits until the forest is restored (i.e., temporary loss of ecosystem services), or the direct cost of fire fighting.
[] Other associated costs related to indirect effects of wildfires on aspects such as human health or secondary effects on other natural hazards, such as e.g. increased potential for flooding, are also not accounted for.
[] A consistent, significantly higher impact of scenario A1B is observed, with an average 97\,\% increase of burned area in southern Europe projected at the end of the century, which is on average 2.4 times bigger than the burned area increase predicted with E1 scenario.
[] Results vary greatly across Europe, with marked differences among model runs within the scenarios. The use of ensemble models is therefore essential in this respect, as well as site specific differentiation of adaptation strategies.
[] Fire management strategies adapted to a changing climate should be integrated with forest management and strengthen fire prevention activities such as targeted fuel treatments and prescribed fires.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14168991,climate-change,forest-fires,forest-resources,peseta-series,wildfires},
number = {JRC78846}
}
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{"_id":"muqgp6tA7S2iusAbb","bibbaseid":"camia-libert-sanmiguelayanz-modellingimpactsofclimatechangeonforestfiredanger","authorIDs":[],"author_short":["Camia, A.","Libertà, G.","San-Miguel-Ayanz, J."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"report","type":"report","title":"Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Camia"],"firstnames":["Andrea"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Libertà"],"firstnames":["Giorgio"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["San-Miguel-Ayanz"],"firstnames":["Jesús"],"suffixes":[]}],"date":"2013","url":"http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14168991","abstract":"Forest fires are an environmental, economic and social problem particularly in the southern European countries, where wildfires regularly burn thousands of hectares of forests and other lands. Changes in wildfire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystems stability, with consequent direct and indirect economic losses. On the other hand, active forest management and wildfire management practices have some potential to counteract the impacts of a changing climate. Meteorological fire danger indices evaluate and summarize the fire danger considering current and past weather. Based on these indices, maps of projected change of fire danger in Europe under climate change have been developed. In addition, statistical models linking meteorological fire danger and area burned are being built, to support assessments of the expected ecological and economic impact of changed fire danger conditions. The work was done in the context of PESETA II Project. [Excerpt: Discussion and conclusion] In this work we present a first attempt to quantify the estimated economic impact of forest fires in southern European countries. The assessment is done for current years and for end of the century projections, according to two different climate change scenarios respectively driven by A1B and E1 atmospheric emissions scenarios. [] The assessments are based on meteorologically based indices under the assumption that the main driver of fire regimes in Mediterranean Europe is weather. However other important factors such as fuel (biomass) availability and conditions, ignitions sources and human activity (adaptation or causality) affect fire activity and thus wildfire impact. These aspect has not been considered in the study. [] The damage value based on the restoration cost approach underestimates the actual economic losses. Costs which are not accounted for are those incurred because of the missed benefits until the forest is restored (i.e., temporary loss of ecosystem services), or the direct cost of fire fighting. [] Other associated costs related to indirect effects of wildfires on aspects such as human health or secondary effects on other natural hazards, such as e.g. increased potential for flooding, are also not accounted for. [] A consistent, significantly higher impact of scenario A1B is observed, with an average 97\\,% increase of burned area in southern Europe projected at the end of the century, which is on average 2.4 times bigger than the burned area increase predicted with E1 scenario. [] Results vary greatly across Europe, with marked differences among model runs within the scenarios. The use of ensemble models is therefore essential in this respect, as well as site specific differentiation of adaptation strategies. [] Fire management strategies adapted to a changing climate should be integrated with forest management and strengthen fire prevention activities such as targeted fuel treatments and prescribed fires.","keywords":"*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14168991,climate-change,forest-fires,forest-resources,peseta-series,wildfires","number":"JRC78846","bibtex":"@report{camiaModellingImpactsClimate2013,\n title = {Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger},\n author = {Camia, Andrea and Libertà, Giorgio and San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús},\n date = {2013},\n url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14168991},\n abstract = {Forest fires are an environmental, economic and social problem particularly in the southern European countries, where wildfires regularly burn thousands of hectares of forests and other lands. Changes in wildfire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystems stability, with consequent direct and indirect economic losses. On the other hand, active forest management and wildfire management practices have some potential to counteract the impacts of a changing climate. Meteorological fire danger indices evaluate and summarize the fire danger considering current and past weather. Based on these indices, maps of projected change of fire danger in Europe under climate change have been developed. In addition, statistical models linking meteorological fire danger and area burned are being built, to support assessments of the expected ecological and economic impact of changed fire danger conditions. The work was done in the context of PESETA II Project.\n\n[Excerpt: Discussion and conclusion]\n\nIn this work we present a first attempt to quantify the estimated economic impact of forest fires in southern European countries. The assessment is done for current years and for end of the century projections, according to two different climate change scenarios respectively driven by A1B and E1 atmospheric emissions scenarios.\n\n[] The assessments are based on meteorologically based indices under the assumption that the main driver of fire regimes in Mediterranean Europe is weather. However other important factors such as fuel (biomass) availability and conditions, ignitions sources and human activity (adaptation or causality) affect fire activity and thus wildfire impact. These aspect has not been considered in the study.\n\n[] The damage value based on the restoration cost approach underestimates the actual economic losses. Costs which are not accounted for are those incurred because of the missed benefits until the forest is restored (i.e., temporary loss of ecosystem services), or the direct cost of fire fighting.\n\n[] Other associated costs related to indirect effects of wildfires on aspects such as human health or secondary effects on other natural hazards, such as e.g. increased potential for flooding, are also not accounted for.\n\n[] A consistent, significantly higher impact of scenario A1B is observed, with an average 97\\,\\% increase of burned area in southern Europe projected at the end of the century, which is on average 2.4 times bigger than the burned area increase predicted with E1 scenario.\n\n[] Results vary greatly across Europe, with marked differences among model runs within the scenarios. The use of ensemble models is therefore essential in this respect, as well as site specific differentiation of adaptation strategies.\n\n[] Fire management strategies adapted to a changing climate should be integrated with forest management and strengthen fire prevention activities such as targeted fuel treatments and prescribed fires.},\n keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14168991,climate-change,forest-fires,forest-resources,peseta-series,wildfires},\n number = {JRC78846}\n}\n\n","author_short":["Camia, A.","Libertà, G.","San-Miguel-Ayanz, J."],"key":"camiaModellingImpactsClimate2013","id":"camiaModellingImpactsClimate2013","bibbaseid":"camia-libert-sanmiguelayanz-modellingimpactsofclimatechangeonforestfiredanger","role":"author","urls":{"Paper":"http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14168991"},"keyword":["*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM","~INRMM-MiD:c-14168991","climate-change","forest-fires","forest-resources","peseta-series","wildfires"],"downloads":0},"bibtype":"report","biburl":"https://tmpfiles.org/dl/58794/INRMM.bib","creationDate":"2020-07-02T22:41:03.658Z","downloads":0,"keywords":["*imported-from-citeulike-inrmm","~inrmm-mid:c-14168991","climate-change","forest-fires","forest-resources","peseta-series","wildfires"],"search_terms":["modelling","impacts","climate","change","forest","fire","danger","camia","libertà","san-miguel-ayanz"],"title":"Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger","year":null,"dataSources":["DXuKbcZTirdigFKPF"]}