On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution. Carmines, E. G. & Stimson, J. A. The American Political Science Review, 80(3):901--920, September, 1986. ArticleType: research-article / Full publication date: Sep., 1986 / Copyright © 1986 American Political Science Association
On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
How do political issues arise, and come to affect political party politics? We develop a theory and model of issue evolution, illustrating both by examining the dynamic evolution of the issue of racial desegregation. Our modeling concerns two central problems: (1) the structure of the evolution--a pattern of dynamic causality between the early policy cues from professional politicians, in Congress in the case at hand, and later mass response, and (2) the sequence of changes in elite behavior, changes in mass perceptions of party issue stances, changes in mass affect toward the parties, and changes in party identifications among citizens. We suggest that the causal process developed for the racial case is quite general for other times, other nations, and other issues. The theory of issue evolution is developed as a general statement of the organic connection between elite and mass behavior, a working model of the dynamics of American politics across time and issues.
@article{ carmines_structure_1986,
  title = {On the {Structure} and {Sequence} of {Issue} {Evolution}},
  volume = {80},
  copyright = {Copyright © 1986 American Political Science Association},
  issn = {0003-0554},
  url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1960544},
  doi = {10.2307/1960544},
  abstract = {How do political issues arise, and come to affect political party politics? We develop a theory and model of issue evolution, illustrating both by examining the dynamic evolution of the issue of racial desegregation. Our modeling concerns two central problems: (1) the structure of the evolution--a pattern of dynamic causality between the early policy cues from professional politicians, in Congress in the case at hand, and later mass response, and (2) the sequence of changes in elite behavior, changes in mass perceptions of party issue stances, changes in mass affect toward the parties, and changes in party identifications among citizens. We suggest that the causal process developed for the racial case is quite general for other times, other nations, and other issues. The theory of issue evolution is developed as a general statement of the organic connection between elite and mass behavior, a working model of the dynamics of American politics across time and issues.},
  number = {3},
  urldate = {2013-07-02TZ},
  journal = {The American Political Science Review},
  author = {Carmines, Edward G. and Stimson, James A.},
  month = {September},
  year = {1986},
  note = {ArticleType: research-article / Full publication date: Sep., 1986 / Copyright © 1986 American Political Science Association},
  pages = {901--920}
}

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