Poleward Expansion of Mangroves Is a Threshold Response to Decreased Frequency of Extreme Cold Events. Cavanaugh, K. C., Kellner, J. R., Forde, A. J., Gruner, D. S., Parker, J. D., Rodriguez, W., & Feller, I. C. 111(2):201315800–727.
Poleward Expansion of Mangroves Is a Threshold Response to Decreased Frequency of Extreme Cold Events [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
[Significance] Coastal mangrove forests support a diverse array of associated species and provide ecosystem services to human communities. Mangroves cannot tolerate extreme freezing temperatures and so are generally limited to tropical environments. However, climate change in the form of increasing temperatures has the potential to facilitate increases in mangrove abundance near tropical-temperate transition zones. Here, we use 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that increases in mangrove area have already occurred along the northeast coast of Florida. These increases correspond to decreases in the frequency of extreme cold events in this region. We also identify a temperature-related ecological threshold of -4°C. These results suggest that landscape-scale increases in mangrove area may occur in other regions where this threshold is crossed. [Abstract] Regional warming associated with climate change is linked with altered range and abundance of species and ecosystems worldwide. However, the ecological impacts of changes in the frequency of extreme events have not been as well documented, especially for coastal and marine environments. We used 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that the area of mangrove forests has doubled at the northern end of their historic range on the east coast of Florida. This expansion is associated with a reduction in the frequency of ” extreme” cold events (days colder than -4 °C), but uncorrelated with changes in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and land use. Our analyses provide evidence for a threshold response, with declining frequency of severe cold winter events allowing for poleward expansion of mangroves. Future warming may result in increases in mangrove cover beyond current latitudinal limits of mangrove forests, thereby altering the structure and function of these important coastal ecosystems.
@article{cavanaughPolewardExpansionMangroves2013,
  title = {Poleward Expansion of Mangroves Is a Threshold Response to Decreased Frequency of Extreme Cold Events},
  author = {Cavanaugh, Kyle C. and Kellner, James R. and Forde, Alexander J. and Gruner, Daniel S. and Parker, John D. and Rodriguez, Wilfrid and Feller, Ilka C.},
  date = {2013-01},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {111},
  pages = {201315800--727},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1315800111},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1315800111},
  abstract = {[Significance] 

Coastal mangrove forests support a diverse array of associated species and provide ecosystem services to human communities. Mangroves cannot tolerate extreme freezing temperatures and so are generally limited to tropical environments. However, climate change in the form of increasing temperatures has the potential to facilitate increases in mangrove abundance near tropical-temperate transition zones. Here, we use 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that increases in mangrove area have already occurred along the northeast coast of Florida. These increases correspond to decreases in the frequency of extreme cold events in this region. We also identify a temperature-related ecological threshold of -4°C. These results suggest that landscape-scale increases in mangrove area may occur in other regions where this threshold is crossed. 

[Abstract] 

Regional warming associated with climate change is linked with altered range and abundance of species and ecosystems worldwide. However, the ecological impacts of changes in the frequency of extreme events have not been as well documented, especially for coastal and marine environments. We used 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that the area of mangrove forests has doubled at the northern end of their historic range on the east coast of Florida. This expansion is associated with a reduction in the frequency of ” extreme” cold events (days colder than -4 °C), but uncorrelated with changes in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and land use. Our analyses provide evidence for a threshold response, with declining frequency of severe cold winter events allowing for poleward expansion of mangroves. Future warming may result in increases in mangrove cover beyond current latitudinal limits of mangrove forests, thereby altering the structure and function of these important coastal ecosystems.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12921520,climate-change,climatic-niche-shift,exotic-plants,forest-resources,global-scale,global-warming,habitat-suitability,limiting-factor,mangroves,niche-modelling,temperature,united-states},
  number = {2}
}

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