The whole truth about Linda: probability, verisimilitude and a paradox of conjunction

The whole truth about Linda: probability, verisimilitude and a paradox of conjunction. Cevolani, G., Crupi, V., & Festa, R. In D'Agostino, M., Giorello, G., Laudisa, F., Pievani, T., & Sinigaglia, C., editors, SILFS New Essays in Logic and Philosophy of Science, pages 603-615. College Publications, London, 2010.

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We provide a 'verisimilitudinarian' analysis of the well-known Linda paradox or conjunction fallacy, i.e., the fact that most people judge the probability of the conjunctive statement "Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement" (B & F) as more probable than the isolated statement "Linda is a bank teller" (B), contrary to an uncontroversial principle of probability theory. The basic idea is that experimental participants may judge B & F a better hypothesis about Linda as compared to B because they evaluate B & F as more verisimilar than B. In fact, the hypothesis "feminist bank teller", while less likely to be true than "bank teller", may well be a better approximation to the truth about Linda.

@Incollection{gcsilfs07paper,
  Title                    = {The whole truth about {L}inda: probability, verisimilitude and a paradox of conjunction},
  Author                   = {G. Cevolani and V. Crupi and R. Festa},
  Booktitle                = {SILFS New Essays in Logic and Philosophy of Science},
  Editor                   = {D'Agostino, M. and Giorello, G. and Laudisa, F. and Pievani, T. and Sinigaglia, C.},
  Pages                    = {603-615},
  Publisher                = {College Publications},
  Year                     = {2010},
  Address                  = {London},
  Url                      = {PubsPDF/Cevolani, Crupi & Festa - The whole truth about Linda - 2010.pdf},
  Abstract                 = {We provide a 'verisimilitudinarian' analysis of the well-known Linda paradox or conjunction fallacy, i.e., the fact that most people judge the probability of the conjunctive statement "Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement" (B & F) as more probable than the isolated statement "Linda is a bank teller" (B), contrary to an uncontroversial principle of probability theory. The basic idea is that experimental participants may judge B & F a better hypothesis about Linda as compared to B because they evaluate B & F as more verisimilar than B. In fact, the hypothesis "feminist bank teller", while less likely to be true than "bank teller", may well be a better approximation to the truth about Linda.},
  Catalogato               = {07.44.2007},
  Organization             = {Societ\`a Italiana di Logica e Filosofia della Scienza},
  Owner                    = {G.}
}

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